This is what happens at the end of the year.  Notice, long grain sales were higher than total sales.  This was because of a cancellation to Turkey.  More than likely, it will be back on the sheet in a few weeks.

Bottom-line:  Nothing has changed, exports will be increased on the next report and the question will be if the carry-over number will change.  The USDA has been taking the exported number out of the domestic consumption believing that we cannot have less than 10 million cwt. in the pipeline.  As of today we are 1.5 million cwt over the USDA projection with 9 weeks left.

I updated the Carryover Reliability table after the April S&D report, and nothing has changed.  The government is still pretty bad at forecasting the ending stocks for Rice.  The problem is that they will change the ending stocks to a ridiculously low level AFTER the futures has stopped trading the old crop. 

Note** There are two different time periods under "Weeks Left in Current Year".  The second one assumes that the last eight weeks of sales will all be for the 2004-2005 crop year.  That is not true but it gives you an idea of how we are doing knowing the last weeks will have less sales for the old crop year than the new one.