Friday April 30th -

Corn - What happened???  Somebody pulled the plug in the last minute of trade as corn collapsed in the last 60 seconds.  Having traded on the floor, my guess is somebody either made a mistake or there was a huge "market on close" order that hit the market.  Maybe it was both!!!  The charts are bullish but a test of recent lows is still a possibility.  I want to own it on a break.

Soybeans - I continue to day-trade the market and another great day it was today.  Near term, the market may have some tough sledding unless this year's crop gets into any type of problems.  So far, its been great.  Long term we want to own it but you should be very careful here unless you have very deep pockets. 

Rice - Deliveries this morning were right on expectations at 220 but the market was not expecting fund buying at the close.  That took the market sharply higher and continues to point to a sharp move higher near term.  While I wouldn't be surprised for the market to test the break out, or look like its going to, I wouldn't count on it either.  As we said here for several days if not weeks, this move will be hard to catch and tough to hang on to.  But hang we shall!!

Thursday April 29th -

Corn - Good sales numbers this morning and the overall fundamentals allowed corn to work higher today.  We could rally another 3 or 4 cents before hitting real resistance.  Long term I like, near term it could go either way.

Soybeans - I continue to day trade the market.  A move back to $10.20 in July will find some resistance. A move over $10.26 and we should head for the contract highs.  Can we do it?  Sure, but the timing remains questionable.  Even so, I'll go with the market.

Rice - Good export numbers and a lack of selling on the futures took rice higher today.  We are over bought but remember, the third leg up gets crazy and this is the third leg.  I would love to see us test the flag we just broke out of back at $10.90 in July but I'm not counting on it.

Wednesday April 28th -

Corn - As we said last night, the rally here yesterday was not on very strong demand as much as a technical bounce.  Today the market sold off for most of the day and then rallied into the close.  This may be a result of anticipating large export sales in the morning.  I had a good feel for the market coming in this morning expecting a sell off but I don't have an indication for tomorrow.  Long term I want to own it but for now I'll be patient.

Soybeans - "Never buy the first rally!!!"  We stated last night that the bounce on Tuesday was probably not good and we looked for a short day trade today.  We got it early and in fact it lasted 10 minutes and made 11 cents.  We were out the rest of the day and tomorrow, well, I don't have a clue.  We continue to want to day trade here and own it long term.   Buying longer-term positions may be weeks away.

Rice - Rice sold off today after starting higher.  It looks like we are going to consolidate gains for a few days before heading higher UNLESS there is a large export sales number in the morning.  We will update this page as quickly as we can once those numbers are out at 7:30 CST.

Gold - I bought in my shorts today at $387 in the June.  It was nice to take $30 out of this trade after losing 3 trades in a row tot he tune of $20.  I think I'll quit for awhile.  Read our weekly comments if you want to see how we traded it.

Tuesday April 27th -

Corn - Up 8 cents - We commented last night about a bounce..."We may see a bounce start tomorrow to allow for some consolidation of this break."  (Read it for yourself below.)  We also said that the $3.11 area should hold the rally but it didn't. With that said, the market's strength today was over two things but read them carefully. 

First, cool nights in the Midwest.  As we have pointed out many times, the crop was planted so fast that any weather scare will occur on large acres since its all planted at the same time.  If it is too cool, then it will affect more acres than normal.  Is this a good reason to buy.  NOPE!!  Odds are this will not have long term affects on corn.

Second, the market went up today on spill over buying from Soybeans.  Beans were up because all the good weather is expected to increase corn acres.  DO WHAT!!!  Let me get this straight, corn went up because corn acres are expected to be higher?  Think about it, if beans went up because corn is stealing away bean acres, corn acres are going to be higher, so corn is going up because corn acres are up!!!  Go figure!!! 

Bottom-line: The market is up today because of technical buying.  When that ends, we may see a dip.  Sounds like I'm bearish doesn't it???  HARDLY.  I want to buy this so bad my hands hurt from sitting on them, I just think it's too early to jump out of the blocks.  Let's see what the trade thinks tomorrow.

Soybeans - Up 38 cents - Never buy the first rally!!!  Today's trade was another day traders delight.  Tomorrow???  Resistance is at $10.15 in the July and then $10.17.  We may get that high but technical buying had better get some fundamentals behind it.  My guess is its too early to sustain another rally but I'm not willing to bet on that.  I will continue to day trade the market when it allows me; however, the next trade may be a short not a buy. 

Rice - WMP up 24 cents.  Long-term I think the LDP is going to be history.  The market could have a sell off from this level but the pressure on the bear side of the market is growing.  Inside rumors says some of the big mills are looking for rice under every rock.  If that is true why isn't the May futures running in front of deliveries?  First, I'm not saying it is true but lets say the big mills are in need of cash rice or will be very soon.  If recent trading patterns by mills is any indication, it will not be the first time they have sold futures to keep cash prices in the country where they can get a hold of the supply.  Tomorrow will be very interesting.  My bias is to  the long side of the market for one last push.  Long-term, I remain bullish even for the new crop but more for after harvest than prior.

Lets Talk....This is not the same market of the past 10 years.  Do not trade it like it is.  Farmers are calling me saying they think the market is going right back down to $4.00 with the new crop and they want to sell now.  If I remember right, that is exactly what happened in 1972-1973.  Rice farmers all over the area sold rice early and it was just a few who rode the market to $30.00 a barrel.  Oh, they will tell you of the year they sold at $30.00 but they won't tell you it was just 20% of their crop.  That is because they failed to see the change in dynamics of the market.  We are trying to help rice producers see that the dynamics in 2004 have changed and the price will continue to strength as more and more demand shows up for world supplies of rice.  Look at the signs, they are all around you.  As King Solomon said, "Wisdom is crying from the streets."

Monday April 26th -

Corn - Still under pressure from good weather and fund liquidation.  We may see a bounce start tomorrow to allow for some consolidation of this break.  July has resistance at $3.11and if we can rally that high, there is a chance we will come back down and take out the $3.00 area to see if there are any stops under that level.  Long term, its a buy but patience is the best strategy as we head into May.  Plantings are way ahead of normal but the fact is, all the corn is vulnerable to similar weather patters.  Time will tell.

Soybeans - We could rally here as well over the next few days.  Then we'll see what kind of selling hits the market on a rally.  I like long term but near term we should see selling against a rally.  Never buy the first rally!!

Rice - No selling allowed this one to make new highs today.  This weeks export number may be the focus of the markets as we continue to see little selling on the rally indicating no supply to stop an all out push toward $12.00.  Remember, this one will be tough to ride.  When it tops, it will collapse.  The top may be several weeks away but then again, watch it very close.

Friday April 23rd - A quick one tonight, I will update the weekly Sunday

Corn - Open interest fell 23% from week ago levels as we take some of the steam out of corn.  Even so, funds remain huge longs.  I can see us drift around for a few more weeks and even make new lows but long term I want to own corn.  We have some research to finish on options and volatility.  I'll have some comments about that in our weekly update. 

Soybeans - A good day to day trade and it was the first trend-day since last week.  The market has moved back into resistance so we will wait it out and see if the market can muster more of a rally before testing lows.  Open interest fell only 6% so there is still some room for this market drive some open interest out of its ranks. 

Rice - Another good day higher and this close confirms we are heading into a third leg.  Next week we may see the market advance again as we see traders put into the place of trying to catch the market.  It will expensive to play this game so be prepared.

Thursday April 22nd -

Corn - Nothing day.  That makes me think we will make new lows if tomorrow (Friday) ends lower.  Open interest number tomorrow will be interesting.

Soybeans - Nice bounce but don't get too excited yet.  We need more time and odds may still favor a test of recent lows. 

Rice - "If I didn't know better, I'd say some traders here are thinking we might have some big sales numbers tomorrow morning.  If we do....it is going to be real interesting."  From last nights comments... 

Now how did we know that???  Nice up move into new highs today with big export numbers.  The USDA May report is going to tighten things up; however, could the new highs be a bull trap??  We need follow through the next few days.  A move over today's high is your signal that leg 3, which we have talked about before, is underway.  If you want to take the ride on this one, you will have to pay up for it.

Wednesday April 21st -

Corn - Down 6 - We are 25-30% sold at much higher levels and are beginning to ask, when do we cover some profits here with calls.  Today's action is just further indications of the washout that needs to occur but the buying at the lows looks to be commercials and they were aggressive at those levels.  July could be forming a small double bottom but the bad news is corn doesn't usually form double bottoms.  Even so, I like the market to show a bottom verses me picking one.  If you're long and looking for some ray of sunshine, I'm not much help.  For now, I want confirmation and this is one of those times I would rather buy the market 7 cents higher than at the current price.  Long term, I think we will be quit a bit higher as long as we get that annual weather scare.  Heaven help us if there is a problem and we loose 10 bushels off of the national average.

Soybeans - Down 14 - The market closed lower but in the middle of its daily range.  Once again, it appears commercials want to own beans or should I say bring in their shorts as they were good buyers at the low end of the range today.  Is that good news?  Not really.  Logic says that commercials are usually scale down buyers and that is what they did today.  If this is their plan, they will back up and buy the market as it goes lower.  On the other hand, we may see some bottom picking off of today's close and try to consolidate the losses in this area.  We are over sold so a correction is possible.  Remember, it's a correction until proven otherwise. 

I want to own beans later this year just like corn but I have no reason to own them tonight and I don't.  By the way...day trading today lost money on a short position (5 cents).  The day would be classified as non-trending so we get no real market information from today's action.  The trend remains down and if you're long, you can hope that today was the low of the move or get ready to sell any type of rally for the short term.  I'd pick the latter if I were you.  Remember, if you are going to be wrong, be wrong OUT of the market not in it.   

Rice - Up 12 - If I didn't know better, I'd say some traders here are thinking we might have some big sales numbers tomorrow morning.  If we do....it is going to be real interesting.  We remain long the call spreads, long futures and short call premium in the July.  This covers us to over $11.40 in the July or another dollar up.  I'm not saying that is going to happen but the drift of this market is up not down and any additional sales numbers is going to exasperate the tight stocks situation.  There is little risk in the new crop right now but if you can grow rice for $10.00, the market may be offering it to you very soon. 

Bonds - Mr. Greenspan added to the idea of higher interest rates even though he said it was deflation that seems to be a non-issue not inflation becoming one.  No doubt the economy is heating up but what is warmer, 10 degrees below zero or 10 degrees above.   You're right!!  But is that warm?  Not hardly.  I still think interest rate are going higher long term but who doesn't.  Its just that the early birds may get their beaks smashed in instead of a worm.  Near term, I see the bond market sideways to a little higher.  By the way, I'm not trading it.

Tuesday April 20th - 

Corn - Still no real news except for planting progress and good weather.  The great start has got odds favoring a better than average crop but it also lumps the crop into the same stage which, if there is a weather problem, could have a dramatic impact on prices later this spring and summer.  Near term, I still expect the market to go sideways to lower but want to buy the break.  One more thing, the good planting weather makes me not want to buy a July weather scare trade.  It needs to be in the September contract as we may see a post July 4th rally and that would mean September options not July.

Soybeans -  Finally, a day trade.  It was on the short side today and it was the first day trade signal in three days.  (I didn't take it as I couldn't watch it but it would have been a good one.)  I point this out to state that I am only interested in day trading beans right now.  Longs should be out as we recommended April 8th.  There is no reason to own beans right now and it may be 4 to 6 weeks before we get any kind of a bull move from them.  

Rice - I am typing this just after the close on Tuesday so I do not know about WMP.  I'll come back and update this later tonight if there is a change.  I think rice will hold in a sideways range as I stated several days back.  If we are going to get a real sharp up move it will be later in May or even June.  I am amazed at how tired everyone is on this market.  We need several weeks of sideways trade to let everyone get a break.

Monday April 19th -  Short one tonight!!!

Corn - Good planting weather has more traders worried that a bumper crop is on the way.  Couple that with high open interest and we are down again today.  The weather will change but for now, it is going to be hard to sharply rally the market for a while. 

Soybeans -  Nothing really new here either.  A good range today but not any real direction.  We could be here for a while.

Rice - Nothing to report here either.  Low volume continues to be the feature and I expect that into May deliveries.  Nothing has changed in our evaluation.

Thursday April 15th -  A LONG ONE TONIGHT

Corn - Down 9 cents  - This is what can happen when you have too many long fund positions and they all want out at the same time.  We traded down the 20 cent limit today but bounced off of it 16 cents only to turn right back down under the barrage of fund sellers.  The market again sold off to down 14 only to rally 6 cents in the last minute of trade.  I expect early weakness tomorrow but I expect it to turn back up as the fundamentals in corn should not allow us to stay down here very long.  Early estimates indicate funds sold up to 65,000 contracts. 

We are short 25-30% and would love to buy in some call coverage when we can.  We are going to let the market show us when to pull the trigger here.  I still see several weeks before we start to have a weather premium start to be built into corn prices.  Again, remember bad weather is just before good weather and good weather occurs just before bad weather.  There will be a weather scare.

Soybeans - Down 50 cents Limit Locked -  WOW & DOUBLE WOW!!!  IT IS A DAY TRADERS DREAM.  Which brings me to the question, can you get out of a position when it's limit locked against you?  Sure, but.....   Check on this link, Getting Out, to find out how. 

Last night (see below) I wrote about how you should not marry a position here in the beans and just "go with the flow."  Yesterday, we got buy signals for a day trade that worked wonderfully and the market rose 41 cents.  I pointed out that a bull married to his position won and the bear lost.  Well today, those fortunes reversed as we got the same signal but this time it was a sell signal.  The market gave us almost the same move to the down side.  What a market!!! A few more day-trading days like this and I WILL retire!!!   The market went down the limit of 50 cents just after 11 AM.  After that we got a couple of bounces but they were selling opportunities.  The market is getting rid of fund longs and let me tell you, they will sell at any price to get out.  Every bounce today was a sell.  Tomorrow, again I'll take what the market gives me.  The synthetics show the market down 16 cents on the open tonight which begins at 7:30 PM CST.

It should be very apparent that this market is going to be all over the place as we go through liquidation coupled with shortages in beans, so again, don't marry yourself to a position.  When the funds are out of their longs, things will settle down.  In the run up yesterday open interest went up 2,000 contracts.  Let's see what happened to open interest today.  As I have been saying now for months, I'm day trading and taking what ever the market gives me.  Long term, I'm still a bull but with no positions right now.  I'm looking for a weather problem later this year.  I can see the market at $9.40 in July futures before the weather becomes the major concern.  We sold cash beans using August last week also selling 25-30%.  Our target in August is $8.90 where we might start buying in some call coverage for a HUGE move higher.  In other words, we will buy a 40 cent out of the money call.

Rice - Down 11 cents - This mornings export numbers were again too high indicating a change ahead for exports in the S&D report.  The market started off higher and was up 11 cents before the collapse of the other grains.  Once that started, the bulls were not going to push on rice and the bears sold in solidarity with their CBOT pits.  Even with the huge volume in the other grains, trading was very thin in the rice. 

It is obvious to me that the shorts in the market believe they are playing with the deck stacked in their favor.  If you read our comments on the Special Rice page and the Weekly Export report, you will see why the shorts feel the USDA will not hurt them for a while.  It's the bulls who have to prove their case and so far they haven't.  I still see a good chance rice will jump later this year but again, it may be at the very end of the crop year.  We are long some calls but no out right futures.

Wednesday April 14th -

Corn - Up 5 1/4 - We are 25-30% sold but still at much higher levels than today's close.  We will look hard to see if we need to adjust our position but one day does not a major bull move make.  Open interest in the beans after today is going to be critical.  We will get those numbers in the morning along with export sales.  As I said last night, if you haven't sold, we need to let this action consolidate the markets direction before doing anything.  I will probably buy some calls in July to protect myself long term.  Nothing has changed in our opinion of the market.  Near term, we could still see more liquidation but no matter what, long term we are bullish. 

Soybeans - Up 41 1/2 - WOW!!!  A few more day-trading days like this and I can retire!!!  Beans today showed us why we should never marry a position.  If you are bullish it worked well but if you came in bearish, you got hammered.  It is best to "go with the flow"  and today's flow was straight up.  I like trading fresh every day and soybeans is giving us all we can handle with several trend days every week to hang our hats on and ride.  Near term, the market may be able to rally back toward highs but remember, we are still 53 cents below last weeks highs.  The market still has to prove itself.  For me, I'll take the volatility day by day and be happy.  Long term, I'm still a bull but I can see the market at $9.40 in July futures before weather becomes the major concern.

Rice - Up 8 - The market remains in no man's land with commercials on both sides.  They provided scattered support today.  News that the US did not get any of the rice sale into Iraq might have spooked a couple of traders in the last few days but I certainly don't know why.  The market is not up on Iraq it is up on lack of supply.  Certainly a sale of rice immediately to Iraq from the US would have sent the market into overdrive but my opinion all along has been we would not get any rice in that sale.  It's the rice sold to Iraq this fall that I'm expecting and that should provide another push for US rice and keep supplies tight into next year. 

Tomorrow's sales number is the big event this week.  If that sales number comes in over 40, the market will not be able to go lower.  If it comes in over 60, the market will run higher for sure.  My guess....35, which is still higher than the current average of 23 needed to hit the USDA numbers for the year. 

Bonds -  Let's talk...Most bond traders trade the bonds based on what they would do they were in the FED instead of trading of on what the current FED members will do.  The talk of higher interest rates has everyone headed for the exits in bonds and looking for good inflationary investments.  My opinion, they are way ahead of the curve and will get burned in the next few months.  Fact, interest rates will go up at some time but the main question is when.  I think the answer lies not with inflationary pressures but with deflationary pressures.  Which is worse.  Answer - DEFLATION.  If you don't believe me, just ask Japan.  Deflation can lead to depression while inflation can lead to recessions.  True depression can follow a recession but not without deflation. 

I do not believe the FED is going to raise rates until deflation fears are deader than a door nail.  With no job creation, the fed will face inflation for a longer period of time than most people expect.  Once again, I am in the minority on this one, but just remember, I was in the minority on the value of the dollar going higher and it just made 5 month highs.  Logic is like wisdom, "it cries from the streets."  (Book of Proverbs)   Logically, I think the fed will not take the risk of pushing the economy right back to the brink of deflation.  Sell bonds later this year, NOT NOW!!!

Tuesday April 13th -

Corn - Down 10 1/2 - We are 25-30% sold looking for the current long liquidation to end fairly soon.  The fundamentals have not changed but the current weather pattern has the market poised for a record crop.  Good weather has a tendency to turn into bad weather and visa versa.  Near term, we should see rallies met with good selling as we get the huge long position into a more historic  level.  If you haven't sold, I'd wait for action tomorrow before doing anything and I would also look hard at buying calls in July for protection.

Soybeans - Up 4 - Not very much of a bounce.  It might be a good feel rally today so if we take out the last two days lows, we could see one more hard down draft.  Remember, this market may get totally unreasonable and irrational very soon.  Long term, we will need weather or major bullish news to turn the bearish tide. 

Rice - No change - A very tough call.  I'd like more information as the trading channel is set up with a sell at $9.60 and a buy at $10.10 with the market at $9.83.  That is right in the middle.  WMP was unchanged and most of the US rice crop is sold and in the mills hands so this one could go either way; however, if we get large sales numbers this week, my bet is higher.

Monday April 12th -

Corn - We sold corn hard last week and today's action confirmed an intermediate top.  We did recommend hedges to get to 25-30% sold and that should have been done; however, we are still long term friendly so this is just a starting place that gives us some comfort near term.  We may buy some out of the money calls later to protect against a major weather scare.

Soybeans - "No matter how you try and sugar coat it, the beans have turned bearish and today's action may be the first real sign of what is about to occur."  That was last Thursday and the market has dropped about 70 cents from the open that day.  We see more long liquidation so this is no time to get stubborn.  If you are going to be wrong, be wrong out of the market.  I see a rally later this summer but near term, it could be a few days before we see the sun.  We sold cash beans for Texas farmers last Thursday if they could use the August futures.  (Group 4's in Texas are harvested in time for August delivery.)  If you are using 8's here in Texas, we do not recommend selling beans in the new crop just yet.  The new crop months are expecting a large US crop and it is not even planted yet.

Rice - This market is not as bearish as are the other grains right now.  One surprise will send this market back toward highs but, where is the surprise?  We have taken a lot of money off of the table and are now short some premium.  Volatility got to 40% and that is a good sales level.  Near term, the market may work and consolidate lower but I wouldn't be surprised to see one last push.  Even so, odds are about 60-40 we will make new highs so be careful. 

Thursday April 8th -

Corn - This morning S&D report was bullish corn and continues to highlight the tight stocks condition for corn.  Near term, we may see a pull back if the beans are topping.  Long term, we want to own options for a weather scare later this summer.

Soybeans - No matter how you try and sugar coat it, the beans have turned bearish and today's action may be the first real sign of what is about to occur.  If we take out $9.80, long liquidation will be dramatic in a major sell off for beans.  I have a downside objective of $9.20 if that happens.  Long term, I will own calls but I continue to day trade beans, today was another big day for that operation.  

Rice - The S&D report this morning was bearish in my mind but not a surprise.  The USDA boys raised exports by 3 million but then cut domestic usage by 3 million.  In other words, they won't cut carryover with this much time left in the year.  They will wait and do that after they see the final years demand and price action.  Near term, we may see a turn down here as well. 

Tuesday April 6th -

Corn and Beans - Beans currently have a double top forming but the fundamentals continue to be bullish even with the South American harvest well underway.  Yields continue to decline in Brazil which should keep any major sell off supported.  I will day trade the beans and hold my long positions in corn options.

Rice - WMP was up 25 cents but then it is so far below the current market, that doesn't really mean anything.  Look for sales to drop off this week as they should given the current usage of exports on the books.  If the sales are high, we have a major problem.

S&D Report Thursday morning will be very important for all of the grains.

Thursday April 1st -

Soybeans -  SK04 - Up 34 1/2 cents

Is this a rally to own or sell??  Good question.  Today's up swing is very impressive and near term one has to watch to see if it can hold up.  Today's Day trade was spectacular and that is how I continue to trade it.  One day at a time.  A move back under $10.00 in May signals a test of this weeks low and increases the odds of a major top; however, a move into new highs would signal another leg up.   

Corn - CN04 - Up 6 1/2 cents

After being up 10 cents today the market pulled back giving us a chance at a break near term.  Frankly, I want to buy any dips here as we see the July at $3.50 with out a major weather scare.  Look for a test of support which is at the old high of $3.24.  Yesterday's low of $3.18 is Major support.  I'll buy it at $3.26 and risk the 8 cents.

Rice - RRK04 - Up 50 cents...Limit Up Bid!!! 

Today's export numbers were over 31% of what is needed to meet the USDA's current export number and there is still 4 months to go.  WOW!!!  Well one thing is for sure,  when you couple yesterday's stocks report with the current export pace, the USDA is going to have a hard time not cutting the carryover to below 11 million cwt and I'd guess right now, the number drops to 10.4 million or lower.  There was only 25 contracts bid at limit up but that was just the paper.  Locals could have and would have bought more.  Tomorrow's close is very important.  We could be starting a third leg up in rice which, if that is the case, the chart signals a rally to $11.50 minimum in the July.  We will buy breaks here too.  My experience says that the third leg of a bull market is fast and violent and with only 12 weeks left before old crop goes into deliveries, this could be some move dead ahead. 

Crude Oil - CLM04 - Down $1.35 per Barrel

We have a top showing up in crude as percent bullish dropped under 50% today with the collapse in oil prices.  Time will tell if we can drop very much from here but the current move down is very strong.