Friday April 29th - 

General Comment  - We have dropped to a level that should be strong support until the crop conditions are better known.  If the crop continues with no problems, we should see a gradual falling of prices but any change in weather patterns would start the trade to put some weather premium in the market.  A serious weather scare is going to happen only in the case of hot and dry conditions which I think is a minimum of 4 weeks away with the current weather picture.  This past week, the market has rallied on concerns for wet weather and then it dropped because of dry forecasts.  When that reverses and the market rallies on dry weather, we will know the setup for a weather scare is upon us.

Rice - The move today took us right back up against major resistance.  In the past this level has been hard to get through and it may be that way again.  A close over $7.70 in the July is needed to put more fire in this current up trend.  The buying today was fund related and it was late in the day.  That is usually suspect and Monday's trade may be on the defensive; however, if deliveries can clean up and get current and the prices hold, we may see a further advance.  Right now, deliveries are through April 14th which indicates sellers are holding on, instead of delivering the rice on the May contract. 

In General, there is both bullish and bearish fundamentals at work.  The world picture appears tight but could get tighter if weather concern occur in any of the Asian producing countries.  In the mean time, the United States picture is just right down ugly.  If there is a bearish change in the outlook for the world picture on rice, we could see a major break.  That is not likely near term but as we get into June and July, it will become very possible.  I think those two months will be the definitive time period for rice futures as a whole. 

Thursday April 28th - 

General Comment  - Another good break today.  In fact, the July $2.10 call made contract lows in the session which is a good thing as we want to own some calls longer term.  For now, we will wait on the market to see what it can digest from weather.  Remember, it will get to perfect conditions first and then change to too dry, assuming we can't have two years in a row without a major weather scare.

Rice - Went below the trend line today but bounced off of the 9 week moving average.  I would like to see a higher move tomorrow as now today's low becomes major support.

Natural Gas -  We got a little oversold here and the market sellers got ahead of the main pack of seller which allow for the rally off of the lows today.  Crude also roared back after being down hard again and finished $2.00 off of its low.  Lets see where the sellers are here before doing anything else. 

Wednesday April 27th - Early Update today at 12:00 noon

General Comment  - I need to update this early as I will be out until late tonight.  As I write this, the markets are in sell mode as improved planting conditions are the talk of the floor.  This is what we warned about two nights ago.  Wet weather scares are great to sell into usually and this one looks like no exception.  Here is the thing.  We will go from too wet to perfect conditions and then we will start to watch for too dry.  When conditions get perfect...we want to buy some calls in corn and soybeans.  Get ready and don't be late on this.

Rice -  Still in buy mode but the market is looking for buyers instead of buyers coming to the market.  A test of $7.25 is possible but the trend line is higher then that so we will be faced with a tough decision of the market doesn't find some buyers soon.  This one can go either way.  I'm neither bullish or bearish as the fundamentals are very confusing.  We may need to sit sideways for a few months but if some of the world bullish activity doesn't come to our market soon, we may need to work lower to work off this surplus.

Natural Gas - Right now this market looks like it is on course to move below $7.00 and test the $6.91 level.  A close under $7.00 sets up an objective of $6.55 in the July gas contract.  Crude could work lower as well as the chart looks like a major top is forming there.

Tuesday April 26th - 

General Comment  - Markets were quiet today which may indicate higher prices still to come.  We are in that wait and see the weather mode but technically, the market is still in buy mode.  Like I said the other night, that could end at any moment if tractors start rolling in the mid-west; however, longer term, we want to buy the next break. 

Rice -  World Market Price was unchanged today with some prices overseas up a little since last week.  The technical action today was constructive and now we need a close over $7.53 and then $7.70 to confirm an uptrend.  Longer term, $8.00 may be resistance.  I am neither bullish or bearish here as the market fundamentals support both sides of the equation; however, the technical action is bullish especially after bouncing off of the trend line today.

Natural Gas - We closed right on the 9 week average after trading below that level during much of the day.  I'll repeat that this week is a big one for the Gas market.  I still like the short side of the market but will give it some room.

Monday April 25th - 

General Comment  - Has the weather market arrived?  Well no doubt "A" weather market has arrived but is it "The" weather market of 2005?  I doubt it.  Too wet of weather coupled with the general thoughts regarding inflation may be enough to put some weather premium in the market but experience says it's dry weather you want to see for a sustainable weather rally.  We will go from too wet to too dry and for our part, we would just assume get to the too dry part after its been too wet.  That puts the roots high and then if it's dry, we have major problems.  (I know you guys in the north are just loving me for saying this aren't you.)  Near term, there are other factors running with the too wet forecasts.  Combined, we could still work higher near term.  Longer-term, I'm going to be nervous about call options if we can climb over $2.30 in the July corn. 

Rice - Still looks good from all indicators.  We need a close over $7.70 now to set this one on a course over $8.00.

Natural Gas - The Key Reversal down on April 12th is still controlling this market and may stop an advance.  The nine week average is at $7.26 so a close under there will be real negative as we could setup a major top in Natural gas.  This week may be critical if the market also turns lower in the crude as the action today indicates is happening.

Wednesday April 20th - Last one until Monday the 25th

General Comment  - There is some worry about plantings and commodities in general but the move higher has nothing to do with true fundamentals.  It will take a weather scare to get these markets really going and I think that is about 4 to 6 weeks away.  We want to buy breaks here using calls. 

Rice - Still looks good from all indicators.  Today's close could indicate a breakout and restart of an uptrend.  If the market is higher tomorrow, that would confirm the move that should take out the recent highs.

Natural Gas - Today is interesting because it forms a spike on the charts.  Today's high becomes resistance that if taken out should launch July toward $7.60; however, follow through selling tomorrow could indicate a failure of this bounce and a resumption of the move toward $6.50.  Tomorrows DOE gas report could hold the key.  Going into a four day weekend for me, I'm out as it could go either direction and when its over, we will look at it and say, "Of course, it's so obvious what it was going to do."  Not so obvious right now, that's for sure.

Tuesday April 19th -

General Comment  - News that plantings are behind and China buying beans, sent the market into rally mode today.  I don't think it will last too long in the corn but today's action is exactly what we told you about.  You must factor in the huge demand in these markets to see how fast they could be in a shortage situation.  We want to buy a good break here, especially if we can get an exhaustion move in corn to the downside.  Rice today was slow in front of today's WMP. 

Natural Gas - Big move higher today stopped us out of our short position here.  Not that we have changed our mind but a rally with the crude is possible in front of the Oil supply numbers tomorrow.  We will sell a rally but that could be as high as $7.60 to $7.70 where the down trend line should form.  It is going to be wild.

Monday April 18th -

General Comment  - The market is absorbing bearish news with a slow drift lower.  We are entering the weather market but for now the next several weeks appears to be OK.  I don't expect much change in Tuesday's action but the $6.02 level need to hold in May Beans or additional selling could enter the market.

Natural Gas - No change for us.  We cam back off the lows today so we'll see if the market need to rally a little from that support zone.

Friday April 15th -

General Comment  - Not much happening today in the grains.  Looks like the market is happy where it is for now and will wait for more news.  Nothing new to report on weather with normal rainfall and temps for the next two weeks.  I like rice holding in here at these higher prices.  This could indicate price strength in the near future as we are accepting the new price.  We will enjoy the weekend and see how the market acts on Monday.  Again, read below as we want to own calls soon in the corn and beans. 

Natural Gas - No real follow through to the upside today as the market finished lower with crude down as well.  We remain short and thinking the market's bounce off of $7.10 may be short lived.  As I said last night, I'm not going to sit in this one for very long if we start to work higher.

Dow - Doing exactly as we expected.  I day traded here all day and found it to be WILD.  I made some but not very much as the whipsaw in this market today was violent.  Can we dip below 10,000.  Yep!!  I expect 9,800 as major support but the move today may be over done so just one piece of information that is positive could setup a nice bounce next week.  Longer term, we remain sideways in a huge range and could stay thee for another few YEARS!!!

Thursday April 14th -

General Comment  - Key area of support for beans is at $6.02.  If that level is taken out, things have changed.  I still want to find a place to own it longer term in the next 4 to 6 weeks but for now, let's let  the market breath.  In Rice, the Iraq issue puts another flame under the bulls but will it actually happen?  Lets see where support comes in on this down draft.  A close over $7.68 in July could setup a move toward $8.00.

Natural Gas - Today's low was right on our support window at $7.10.  The market then turned and went higher on the day following crude.  Today's low was right on the 9 week moving average which has been support for this market for a long time.  Now lets see what it's made of.  Real resistance is all the way back up ay $7.70 and I'm not going to let it get that high with me short.  I've dropped my stop to $7.35 based on a 60 minute chart.  That lets me pull out some nice profits but I'm not going long at that level.

Wednesday April 13th -

General Comment  - Markets are quiet and it looks like the big longs have gotten out.  Before my comments on individual markets, is there a shortage of Crude Oil?  You probably are saying, "What are you talking about?  Where did that come from?"  It is just a thought that I have been running through my mind lately as I look at the grain fundamentals.  The fact is, there is a big supply of Crude and demand is not any greater than in times past except for a little more from China but even so, the supply is more than enough to meet demand.  Look at Natural gas prices.  Right now I'm hoping for the market to drop to $6.50 in the July but in all rights, it should be closer to $5.00 given the supply.  With that said, why are we so much higher than we have been in times past with these fundamentals?  The dollar is certainly part of this equation but in general I think we are making a commodity price jump or what I like to call plateau change and it appears to be still going on.  Keep this in mind as you look at the grain contacts tonight.  

Corn - More selling today as the corn has become the dumping ground of spreads against beans and wheat.  If we are changing plateaus as much as beans are, we are too low in corn.  I'm looking for a reason to own here but don't have one yet.

Beans - The natural drift of this market is up right now.  Stops to the downside finds buyers while stops on the upside finds buyers as well.  That is a sign of a natural up bias.  Today was close to a trend day but I won't call it that.  We remain long and nervous.

Rice - We have sold off to where the support should be.  If this market is good, we should not close below Monday's low.  I still can talk both sides of this market.  The world picture could get tight but there is no sign of it yet and with the current US fundamentals, we need something to put a dent in a huge carry-over. 

Wheat - Looks to be basing to me.  If it holds this for two more weeks, it is set up to buy.

Cotton - Watch this one.  We are approaching a nine week moving average sell signal.  The chart is turning over with PB now under 50% setting up a bear market for the short term at least.

Natural Gas - Market still in down draft.  $7.06 to $7.10 is support and we are almost there.  A close under $6.99 would set us up to look at $6.80.  Longer term, the major support is at $6.50.  Can it get there?  For now, we remain short.

Dow - We have been talking about the 10,350 level as major support.  It looks like it is going to be taken out.  If it happens, we could test 10,200 fairly soon.  With what is happening in the commodity market, this is no time to be huge into securities with index funds as you vehicle. 

Tuesday April 12th -

General Comment  - We remain long the bean tonight but nervous.  This is a spec trade only but the follow through we wanted today didn't happen but it didn't fail either.  We will give the market down to today's low on this trade as that's just above where the system went long.  Corn followed through with buying at the end of the day.  This is a down trend finding bounce which could rally another 6 cents with little problems.  No weather scare yet but its too early.  In rice, there was no real selling today in front of WMP.  All indicators are pointing higher and if we take out and close over Monday's high, there is good reason to own some futures.

Natural Gas - GREAT SELL SIGNAL TODAY ---  Massive Key reversal down busting all support.  We got right back into the short side today and did so at a better price then where we covered the short.  It doesn't always work like this but I'll take it when it does.  We re-sold the July as soon as it went down on the day.  We'll watch this one closely but today's high is MAJOR resistance.  PB is still at 54% which has a bullish tilt but crude is below 50% and indicates to sell rallies.  The nine week average is at $7.06 and that should be our next level of support.

Monday April 11th -

General Comment  - Big day today IF there is follow through tomorrow.  Funds were sellers early and then they stopped so the market turned higher.  If we see buying tomorrow, especially if we make new highs throughout the day, we may be set up for a nice rally here to test the current trend. in corn and beans.  Today's lows are now major major support especially in the beans.

Rice - Well, the funds came for rice today on what we are being told was news on the drought in Asia.  Again, its the monsoon later this summer that will determine what happens here.  Today, buying took us through resistance and the market ran buy stops to make new highs and the highest we have seen since January.  Now lets see if there is any buying in the cash market at these levels.  Tomorrow will be interesting as we have an indicator saying we are against major resistance and the market should consolidate before working higher; however, all of our indicators have indeed gone long and we have a turn up in the strength index.  All in all, I want to buy a break here when I have less risk then I do by buying this market right now.  One more point to remember, Thailand futures closed unchanged from last Friday in their Monday trade so the idea that there is a major problem with Thailand supplying rice is not seen in their market.  That indicates caution in getting swept away with a big move higher right now.

Natural Gas - With a low confidence in the current sell signal, I covered our short natural gas position today and took a small profit hoping to replace it higher and on with a better sell signal then I had last week.  Today's hook reversal back up is exactly the same signal I got last week when I sold.  Today's low now becomes a good level to sell so if this rally fizzles, we'll take a shot back at that level.  The Nine week moving average is at $7.06 so we remain a long way from that level of support.   I would look for a move back up toward the $7.80 level to test that area of resistance.

Friday April 8th - REPORT DAY-- 10:30 AM UPDATE

General Comment  - USDA reports today were not bullish, that is for sure.  The corn report showed another increase in carryover which is just as the old adage says, "big crops get bigger" as you go through the year.  While beans carry-over was cut, it wasn't down as much as the market expected.  Today's close will add to the story with all eyes on the soybeans.

Rice - I wanted to provide a little weather outlook here for the Asian crop that looks to be short, at least in some places.  Here is the latest weather synopsis form a site on the internet...

Notice that there is rain showing up in some of the dry areas and the early signs of the monsoon seem to be present.  This is not that bullish for rice.  The key will come in July as the crop will need the monsoon to be very active.  If there is a failure which means, lower rainfall than normal, then things will get very interesting.  Bottom line is simple, where is the demand in the US.  I don't care if there is no rice in Thailand, if no one comes to the US to buy our rice, we will have a huge supply and terrible prices. 

Natural Gas - We remain short here and will move the stop down after today's close.  As of this writing (10:30 AM) we are lower as is crude.  I'm still not convinced this is the absolute top but it could be. 

Thursday April 7th -

General Comment  - All bets are placed as we head into tomorrow's USDA reports.  Look for some declines in inventory for the beans and the maybe some in the corn and wheat as well.  We won't get a look at this years demand until the May report.  I always get that wrong for some reason.  Anyway, we will be looking mainly at the demand issues in all of the agricultural commodities and that will be what drives the market into the weather market of 2005. 

Natural Gas - Our short is working but we will place a stop at $7.80 so we don't lose anything here.  I'm not convinced this is the top but the big sell off in crude is a good sign if it will follow through tomorrow.

Wednesday April 6th -

General Comment  - From a technical standpoint, the beans are starting to look good again.  We have tested the gap again and it held.  A close under $6.06 is bad news here but a move back toward $6.40 is now likely.  Corn is over sold so a bounce is certainly possible but it will take a weather scare to get this one back into a bullish stance.  Rice seems to be going nowhere with support around $6.50 and resistance at $7.28.  Today's close is back over the 9 week average after a couple of days below this level.  The shorter term indicators have not turned back up yet.

We are waiting for the numbers on Friday to see what is happening to the soybean and grain inventories.  The demand phase is underway and I expect beans to see a drop in carryover in this next report with corn and wheat very close to the same as March's numbers.  We have just one more day of trade before the report and there is nothing we want to do in front of it.  Behind it may be another story.  With the passing of the April report, we start looking for some cheap calls to start storing last years corn crop in case there is a good weather scare later this year.  Odds favor one but it may be a post July 4th scare which puts us in the September options.  We will write more about this strategy later, for now we will wait on the numbers for all of the grains.

Natural Gas - The top of Tuesday's reversal is major resistance.  I sold gas as it went down on the day today after being higher all day long.  THIS IS A HIGH RISK TRADE but it makes sense that this is how the gas will make a temporary top and possibly a major top.  PB is at 73% and during this whole leg, the highest PB value has been at 77%.  Usually, there is a blow off top in a move like this that will put this indicator over 80%.  The strength Index is flattening at 36% but could go over 40%.  They why sell it?  Like I said, this is very risky trade and I will be out of it quickly if we make new highs.

Monday April 4th -

General Comment  - I am watching to see what happens here with the May contract of soybeans.  We are against major support at $6.10 and if we take out $6.06 we could see a hard sell off but then again, we have corrected a lot of the overbought condition and the current break may actually bring back in some buyers.  It still comes down to weather ahead for the main US growing season.  If we take out support, I expect a move down to $5.80 and possibly to $5.50 but at that level it is a buy.  Right now, I just look for the market to take a peak at the selling under $6.08.  Corn continues its decline and should find support around the $2.05 to $2.10 window.  Wheat is over-sold and due for a bounce while Rice is still in no-mans land and I have no strong opinion at all in its next direction.  $6.50 is support in May and $7.28 is resistance.

Natural Gas - A massive key reversal down today could be the signal of a major correction.  We need follow through tomorrow to prove it up and a close under $7.44 in July futures to setup a possible trend change on the daily charts. 

Friday April 1st -

General Comment  - Anyone trading this one today, could either said, WHAT A DAY or APRIL FOOLS...Bottom line is this, we are testing the major gap in May beans and if we trade down to $6.06, we may see the funds start to head for the exits big time; however, a bear trap is not out of the question here either.  No matter what side you're on, thee is no denying, things have changed.  We cautioned two weeks ago that the easy money was gone and indeed it is.  The chart is looking very toppy and today's close right down n the gap.  Next week should tell the story.  We will update our weekly comments tomorrow and have more ideas on where from here in all the grains.

Natural Gas - This market should be lower but then, based on supply, why is crude up $2.00 today.  Someone said it was going over $100 and a lot of people said, lets buy it just in case.  There is no way current fundamentals show we should be where we are.  Even so, we are where we are and there is no sign of a top.