Thursday April 27th - 10:00 PM -  Sorry this is late...it helps to hit the save button.

Corn - Market is a little higher tonight.  We think the gap will hold and have bought a little more going to 70% long.  This is where we will hold for sure until we see what happens against the gap.

Soybeans - Nothing new here either.  We want to buy a drought trade but with the rain in the forecast, we have plenty of time.

Wheat - The wheat chart is looking bearish as we test major support.  I'm not sure what to do here but wait and see how the market trades against support.  A close back over $3.60 in July is needed to put is in a position to test the recent highs. 

Rice - Another break to buy yesterday?  Well, we think so.  We bought more November on the break and some calls to boot.  We'll drop down and buy more on another break as we are now only 55% long our position. 

Natural Gas -  Nice break today.  We bought it for hedgers of Gas but only about 33% which means we remain short 67% in the next 4 months usage.  We will get to 50% if we can get the market to break lower near term. 

Cattle -   Today is the day.  A lower close and the double bottom will be gone giving us a move toward 71 in the June contact.  We are out looking for a place to buy but so far no dice.

DOW -  We are out watching.  The market showed some nice strength today.

Wednesday April 26th - 4:00 PM -  

Corn - Nothing new...PB is down to 50% in July which indicates a short term bear move could unfold.  We will want to own more when the time is right but its not right now.  No change...we will hold at 65% long and watch the gap.

Soybeans - Nothing new here either.  A very boring day and we have no changes in our ideas.

Wheat - Market still range bound (read last night).   Bulls are going to get very squeamish if we move under $3.55.

Rice - Back and forth...back and forth!!!   We are long 50% and have no reason to own more.  PB is down to 33% so there is a down trend in affect but again, where is it going to go???  The new crop will start to hold the old crop as the acres are not there to support a major break in November. 

Natural Gas -  We got under $7.50 today in the July but didn't stay down there.  We have sold off very nicely but a bounce is probable here in the next few days.

Cattle -   Read last night...This could indeed be a double bottom.  Thursday's action will be very important. 

DOW -  No change...long term support remains around 11,200 with a sell at 11,100.  Again, I would like to sell a rally after we test the 11,200 level or lower. 

Tuesday April 25th - 10:00 PM -  

Corn - Market is in the gap made after the plantings report.  The next few days will be interesting but I think the gap will hold.  We have bought a little more in the September corn as we prepare for weather concerns which remain about 6 weeks away.  Also, we will see the USDA ideas of any acre changes in the May 12th USDA Supply and Demand report.  That will be playing into things as well.  The 10 day weather forecast is dry but remember, we have very little corn out of the ground so its way too early to get too excited about dry weather but its coming.  We stand at 65% long tonight and will hold there to se how we react in the gap. 

Soybeans - No change in this market either as many feel acres will be lower than USDA said in its March report.  We doubt there is much change with Diesel approaching $2.50.  Also, it is a long expensive road for corn farmers int he fertilizer department.  Beans acres will be lower but not that much.  Weather is the next big feature and so for now, we won't play this game.  A good break will provide us a chance to own options but the every time we talk about that, the market seems to rally.   

Wheat - A move over $3.70 on July will be a buy signal short term.  A break under $3.55 would setup a test of the lows.  Market seems range bound but it may not be that way for long.

Rice - Back and forth...back and forth!!!   We are long 50% and have no reason to own more.  Fundamentals are changing for the side of the bull but there has already been a nice price appreciation.  There is no rush to do anything here.   

Natural Gas -  The break continues but where is it going?  We want to buy some calls down here but would like to buy with July under $7.50...lets see if we can get there.

Cattle -   Is this a double bottom?  Well there is going to be a lot of people asking that including us.  I'm not smart enough to know and no one is unless they are sitting on a bunch of sell or buy orders.  I think we could see a bear trap with a new low and then a failure.  I guess my idea here is watch it close and enjoy the action.  We are out for now looking for the right action to play.  I think there is a nice move coming very, very soon.

DOW -  As I said last night, I don't like the DOW at this level and this condition.  The problem is there is no real sell signal setup.  A move under 11,100 is a sell but I would like a break and then a failure rally to sell the market. 

Monday April 24th - 3:00 PM -  

Corn - Expectations of planting progress ahead of normal and more farmers thinking about planting more corn sent the market lower today.  I always the market is never wrong and its not but it can be pushed by wrong fundamentals which is exactly what is happening here.  Longer term, this break is a buying opportunity and we will buy it and very soon.  We have our option play so you guys wanting that, give us a call and as we will start putting in orders to get long corn for the summer weather market right here.

Soybeans - This market can certainly move higher but not without a weather scare.  Even if 1 million acres shifts back to corn, 33 million bushels of beans isn't anything with the world flush with soybeans.

Wheat - No change...Still a weather market.  We'll buy a break.

Rice - Am I a stuck CD or what???  We are long 50% of our over all position and are buying a little more on the break here.  Where is it going to go on the downside?  There is little risk here to being long. 

Natural Gas -  At last...a break is underway.  We'll see how much we can get from it.

Cattle -   The market sold off with the Cattle-on-feed report and there is no reason to own it.  We remain out looking for a place to buy cattle for a bit of rally. 

DOW -  I don't like the Dow here but have no reason to sell it.  We are looking for a major correction to begin soon.  Remember the old saying..."sell in May and go away."    Good advice.

Friday April 21st - 4:00 PM -  

Corn - Another day of trying to go lower early and finishing up just a bit. This afternoon's COT report is scary.  The funds are now long over 200,000 contracts.  That is an all time record.  The small spec is short 111,000 which I think is a record too.  Open Interest is 1,400,000 contracts so most of the positions belong to commercials by far. 

Even if you read the link above, it does not point out that if there is 1,400,000 contracts, there is 2,800,000 positions.  There is a buyer and seller for every contract so when I look at the COT I add the longs and shorts in each category to determine their percentage of the open interest.  Right now out 2.8 million,  1.34 million is commercial, 353,000 is funds and 523,000 is the small spec.  Those are non-spread positions so the rest is spreading. 

While some will say this report is bearish because of the huge fund poison, I can see it bullish because of the huge small spec position and the very tell tailing sign that the commercial is just not that short.  I still want to own breaks here as over the near term.  We are 6 weeks from weather scare issues.  Get ready as next week, WE WILL make a move into the market for more than the 60% we are long right now. 

Soybeans - Still waiting.  Next week we will get a base position on as the time is now running out before weather will indeed be talked about.  We will try and buy a break but everyone is thinking the same thing.

Wheat - Still a weather market.  We'll buy a break.

Rice - Nothing else here.  We keep getting old crop selling as the major feature but this selling will dry up fairly soon.  We are long 50% of our over all position and are buying a little more on the break here.  Where is it going? 

Natural Gas -  What a tough one.  The rally this week was more than I ever expected but welcome to the wonderful world of futures and energy.  We will still buy a break expecting some type of a pull back.  The fundamentals are bearish but everyone knows it.  Unless crude backs off, we may see this market hold at levels really ridiculous.   

Cattle -   We said last night that the "V" bottom is being destroyed and that was confirmed today.  Then after the close we got the COF report.  The Cattle-On-Feed is slightly bearish.  Look for prices to resume a downward slant near term; however, Monday is a day to watch as a bearish report with a bullish response is one of the tell tail signs of a low in cattle.  If we close lower with good volume I will start looking for new lows in this market.   

DOW -  The market remains resilient.  The move into new highs could be a bull trap but the news is considered bullish and I sure won't stand in their way.  Longer term, there is little doubt we have problems coming.  The idea that the Fed may be through is great for the bulls who sure want to spread that idea but common sense would say that the Fed stops when the economy cools...if the economy cools then profits do to.  We will sell this market at some time but for now, things remain bullish and we remain looking for a place to short it. 

Thursday April 20th - 2:00 PM -  

Corn - Nothing new here.  Selling today based on fund liquidation in other markets with Gold down one of the markets down so hard.  Obviously, we have an across the investment world idea that inflation is well in check and signs are surfacing for the FED to slow its tightening.  May be I should say those in the NOT real world.  We want to buy below $2.45 in July corn and that could happen soon.

Soybeans - Nothing here yet...we are wanting to buy calls but don't see any reason to rush.

Wheat - Weather is the issue.  The next several days could be interesting if the moisture doesn't materialize.

Rice - Fund selling early today was met with good buying on decent volume.  Again, where are we going?  We are long 50% and want to own more but would like to buy November near $8.90.

Natural Gas -  Correction day.  Nothing in the storage report. For now we will continue to hope for a correction to near longer term support and then we will buy it.

Cattle -   The "V" bottom is getting destroyed with today's action.  Let's see if there is any correction.

DOW -  I'm looking to sell it but this reaction could last another few days.  I doubt that the current news is enough to get the Fed to back off of their plans to continue to tighten interest rates. 

Wednesday April 19th - 2:00 PM -  

Comment - Sorry, no update yesterday due to computer and schedule problems.

Corn - Still sideways for now but we are counting down to a sharper move to the upside.  Weather should be the big factor here longer term but just the bite of inflation is going to have an affect.   I want to buy a break and hope it comers pretty soon.

Soybeans - Market hoping for lower acres than the last report.  Again, it will take weather to make much of a move here.  We will want to buy some calls very soon.  I know I said that two weeks ago but we haven't seen a great opportunity to get in.  Maybe soon.

Wheat - I still want to own wheat as the crop is suffering with a lack of subsoil moisture.  The huge supply of wheat keeps the bulls with a very itchy trigger finger but we are about to the point where it needs to rain a bunch to fill out those heads.   I will buy a break here and probably use options in the buy program. 

Rice - Market still has a bearish tilt to it but the longer term outlook remains friendly.  Who will jump first?  I look for some coverage in old crop by the commercials but they certainly have not showed up just yet. 

Natural Gas -  This quick move continues on the back of crude shooting higher.  The break out confirms a low but again, where is it going.  What I expect is a top in crude in the next several weeks followed by a break down which should give us a good sell off here.  One we need to buy. 

Cattle -   Today was a buy signal in cattle with the "V" bottom still in tact.  Look for this one to move higher near term.

DOW -  We remain out and a little surprised by the big move yesterday but we TOTALLY DISAGREE with the ideas that lower inflation is a head based on US data.  Inflation numbers are influenced by two major things...the US money supply and the money velocity.  If they money velocity slows down, inflation will slow down but the US money supply can be decreased and if the money velocity increases...inflation remains.  So far, there is no sign of a velocity change.  Again, all through my comments I have been honest about my lack of confidence in WHEN this market is going to top.  I am still on the bear side that there is a top near term and the economic expansion is about to slow and within 12 months, we will see signs of recession.  THAT IS NOT BULLISH TO THE STOCK MARKET.

Monday April 18th - 9:00 PM -  

Comment - I had this almost completely typed when the power failed at 6 PM this afternoon.  Lost it all.  I hate it when that happens.....

Corn - Interesting day today as the market started higher and turned in a trend day down before it was said and done.  Comments had to do with too wet of weather...give me a break!!! 

Here is the bottom-line.  It is too early for this market to take off.  While there are factors indicating strength, we have come along way already.  I think the market in July is range bound for now between $2.56 and $2.41.  So when the market moves toward $2.43 I will buy it because where is it going to the downside?  OK maybe $2.35 but that is going to be a buy.  We will have a weather scare.  There is just not the risk factor in this market for the next several months even with the large supply on hand.  I will buy breaks here but they need to be lower than what we have had lately.  Let's see if we get one here. 

Soybeans - Brazil's field trips showed less yield than expected so the market responded higher; however,, where is it going?  There is little risk here to the upside until we get some weather concern going.  That is several weeks away at the earliest. 

Wheat - Good rains...nothing to get excited about so we remain out looking for a reason to own it or sell it.  Have neither right now.

Rice - Nothing day really.  I see little risk where we are in either direction.  I think I've been saying that haven't I???   OK...nothing new!!!

Natural Gas - 

Nice move up today.  We have been saying for 7 weeks this market will go sideways here for awhile.  It has done that and now we are headed into no man's land.  We will wait for a break now to own but I am starting to give up on a major break here before Hurricane season rolls in.  Could be wrong...hope I am!!!  We will buy a break here. 

Cattle -   We are really testing the waters here for a base.  I think the downside is limited from here but it could take us close to $70.00 if we can break into new lows. 

DOW -  I don't like the Dow here and have been bearish but at the same time. its a longer-term attitude.  Now I think the chances of new highs in the Dow before a big correction are fading.  We have been out and still are looking for a place to short the US dollar. 

Sunday April 16th - 9:00 PM -  

Comment - Grain markets continue to assume more acres for corn and less for soybeans.  Rains over the weekend will help the wheat and it is too early to think anything regarding weather and corn or beans.  Tonight, the corn is a little lower, wheat down 3 cents and beans up 2 cents.  I look for beans to rally early tomorrow but again, where is it going.  This is no time to be trading for pennies.  We will stay right where we are and the comments from last Wednesday still hold on everything else.

We will do a full update tomorrow afternoon very late due to Monday schedule.  We should have it done by 6PM.

Thursday April 13th - 2:00 PM -  

Comment - I will come back and do this page later this weekend.  The markets were quiet today in front of the long weekend.  Sunday night we will try and give you the heads up for Monday's trade.  Other wise, read the comments below, nothing has changed anywhere. 

Wednesday April 12th - 2:00 PM -  

Corn - Trend day down today but not with a lot of power.  Weather forecasts are good for corn planting to get off to a great start.  This could keep us under pressure near term as traders take profits waiting to see if farmers just keep planting corn.  They have been known to do that but this year is different.  There is a banker looking over their shoulder and he will be shouting...STOP NOW!!!.  With a normal 21 cent national basis and looking at current basis charts that we have, the current market gives a farmer about $2.45 to $2.50 as a price.  Remember, most farmers harvest the corn wet so drying costs will be much higher this year.  Fertilizer costs are rising again as well.  $2.50 is not that attractive for adding the risk of planting more corn.

Even with that said, this is the time of year when you look for corn to make a top.  Seasonal tendencies are a top formation in April to Mid May and then a weather scare in June to August.  The weather scare is too far away, the funds are long big time, weather is perfect for planting....you can see why we are down today and I think we could be lower even more over the near term.  We are long 60% in the corn and will stay there.  If you are in no positions and looking to get long, wait for awhile and see how the market sets up.  We are long from much lower levels and will hold through this test.

Our system says to be a buyer in July at $2.40 which is in the gap made after the USDA report.  Nothing has changed from our overall position so we need to buy this break.  I can see production down near 9.6 billion bushels when all is said and done which would forecast over $3.50 corn in December.  I can also see production at 10.5 billion which will lower the carryover by half and set the market up to test $2.90 in December.  The key factor in all of this is a weather scare.  The unknown issues surrounding corn could cause it to explode like Natural Gas last year. 

We will buy this break if it holds together.  Look for the gap to be tested and traded into and we will get positions on then.  If I'm wrong and we rally 5 cents tomorrow, we will rethink things then.   

Soybeans - Well now...If corn acres are up then soybean acres are down and the market should have been higher today, right???  Well, maybe next time.  Nothing new here to report as the market is looking for new lows.  We want to own calls but have some time so we will await the test of $5.50 in the May and then hope to buy options as we near $5.40 in the May.  We will be buying calls in August or September.

Wheat - Today wheat never traded outside of yesterday's range so it is just a consolidation day.  A move over today's high should be bought but we may not do that near term.  Let's see what the weather information the next few days tells us before doing anything here.

Rice - Read our comments from Monday.  We continued to see commercial selling in the old crop today but the real factor here is lack of interest.  When there is no interest in rice it drifts lower and that is what is taking place right now.  Mills have no interest in old crop rice at the moment as they head for the new crop season and the end of the milling push.  If they see acres lower than the NASS report on March 31st, they will start coverage from the old crop.  Near term I can see the market staying sideways but we will not be able to go sharply lower. 

We are 50% long and holding there.  We want to own it lower but would like to see a reason to own it first.  If the corn market is going into a 2 to 4 week corrective phase, there will be no pressure on the upside here in rice.  Patience is required now.    

Natural Gas - 

Still sideways but the odds of a test of the lows is growing.  With Crude, Heating Oil and Unleaded Gas all over bought, a correction in those markets may put enough pressure on the market to get us into new lows.  I see the trade expecting an infusion of 30 to 50 billion cu. ft. in the report tomorrow.  We need to see the spread of current supply get closer to the 5 year average in the report tomorrow.  I think that will be watched as well.  Risk is to the buyer right now so we are on the sidelines.

Cattle -   The "V" bottom appears to be forming; however, it doesn't have top be a "V" bottom.  This makes the trade a little more difficult.  As of now we have covered all cash and futures position so we are out looking for a place to hedge.  I'd give the odds at 60-40 bullish right here but I'm not taking those odds.   

DOW -  Nothing day today with no real trend developing all day. 

Tuesday April 11th - 9:00 PM - Quick one tonight....

General Comment -  Sorry, but today's schedule has been a tough one.  There is nothing really to say tonight.  Corn tried to go lower on talk that corn acres may be more than beans as we could be buying corn acres.  Tell the bankers that!!!  Look, with Diesel headed for all time highs and energy cost expected to stay up into early next year, there is no way we are buying corn acres at this price.  These traders need to get a grip and realize things have changed...its not you fathers grain market anymore.  Buy breaks.  Even in beans, we will look to get some positions on for a drought scare but for now, we'll stay just where we are.

Rice - WMP - Unchanged as is our advise.  Read comments for the last two days below.

Nothing new on anything else so we'll have a longer comment tomorrow night.

Monday April 10th - 2:00 PM -  INCLUDING SPECIAL REQUEST...JULY COTTON and MAY SUGAR

Comment -  Today's USDA report was a non-event in my opinion.  We are back to trading outside markets and the longer term outlook for everything. 

Corn - After two day's in a row that were trend days, a little consolidation is to be expected.  The market may have been a little disappointed that the numbers were not more bullish in today's report but I wasn't expecting anything big before next month's numbers.   We want to own breaks here so let's see if we can get another down day tomorrow.

Soybeans - The report today didn't change a thing and for soybeans, that is a good thing.  This is what the market thought too at first and worked higher in the opening.  Then it had second thoughts and turned to finish lower.  We want to own some calls here and very soon but we are going to let the market test its major support...Oh my gosh, we are already through it....  Next level is $5.47 and then, and then???  Nothing to $5.30 which is the contract low. 

Listen up.  As of the close tonight we are 24 cents from the contract low.  I doubt we can make a new one before the crop size is known.  If we are buying out of the money calls "cheap".. they will have a delta of 10 to 15%.  That means on a 24 cent break, we can gain 2 cents in the option price.  A whole 2 cents...  What I am wanting to say is this, even if we break 24 cents, worrying over 2 cents in the options isn't worth it.  We will be buying calls here long before we see $5.30 in May. 

When we do buy it by buying calls, this will be a long term trade...one to do and forget until you are "rolling in the doe"... or not!!!

Wheat - Weather is back as a problem for wheat just as we expected.  We owned wheat on the rally and put some nice change in our pockets but now we are thinking 2006 sales.  We will want to sell this rally but have some time.  Keep in touch if you are a wheat farmer and looking to sell. 

Rice - Another break today as the market looks at world surplus a little higher in today's report.  Come on guys, give us a break...it was in Indonesia and India.  Like they are going to affect the long grain prices!!!   We have not changed our stance, we want to own more rice on a break and think the commercials are just cocky enough to give us the break to buy.  The selling today was because of a usage drop...hmmmm...where did that come from?  Why is came from a drop in seed rice usage.  And that was bearish???  A decline of 500,000 cwts.  Seems like a bit more than the decline in acreage would say.  Could it mean acres are down more than the March 31st report stated??  Well, probably not but this news is not that bearish.  You got to give those commercials a hand...they can always find something bearish in bullish news.  Hey, it's alright with me.  Keep that selling coming!!!  We will buy it when the time is right.  Let's let them have their fun before we have ours!!!

Natural Gas -  What a market...it is really hard to trade this sucker... I still can't pull the trigger here.  Remember what I wrote Friday (which is below if you want to read the whole thing).  Here is the main line..."The bears have plenty of bullets they can waste given the current gas supply.  By that I mean, pushing hard to the downside right now won't really hurt them much if they are wrong."    Well they pushed today and got hit with a key reversal Up.  This may or may not turn the trend up but it could be another sign we are going sideways.   In the May contract, PB also crossed back over 50% but just barely at 50.8% after being at 48% last Friday.  July is still at 49%.  In other words, we are sideways in most technical indicators.  Here we go again!!!  We'll remain out looking for a place to own it.

The fundamentals here are so bearish it is hard to get away from them.  I'm looking at technical indicators and have built much of my sideways approach on seasonal tendencies added to the technicals.  Now as we move along in time, we are getting away from reliable seasonal tendencies and fundamentals become more of a direct force to deal with.  Technical indicators work at any time and right now they say sideways.  WHAT A MARKET!!!

Cattle -   WOW!!!  We have been lucky and I'm willing to admit it.  I'd rather be lucky than good any day when it comes to trading.  We had been short cash and needing the long position to hedge.  If you read last Friday, you'll see we covered 80% of our long futures positions as we covered our short cash cattle position last week.  We recommended Friday's low as a stop point and now that is in striking distance for longs on the last 20%.  We are still profitable in our long position and will not let it be a loser.  Right now I'd rather be naked short cash than naked long futures.   We will buy this market again but not right now.  If we are going to make a "V" bottom, we could see another reversal up in the next few days.  That is what we will watch for.  You specs...this is why we said it was a dangerous trade.  It is not over, not even close. 

DOW -  Nothing new here...we are expecting lower levels ahead. 

SPECIAL REQUEST...FOR JULY COTTON and MAY SUGAR---

Two requests over the weekend...here ya go...

July Cotton - A massive key reversal down today.  The USDA report was nothing and the market looks to start trading weather as soon as it can.  Technically, the market is still sideways and the lows could be tested but it's not going anywhere to the downside.  Weather risk will be factor later so breaks should be bought.  54.30 in the May is support and a move over today's high is bullish.  We would own it lower.  In general, PB is at 46% and shows a sideways tendency.  The strength Index is pointing down indicating there is no strength in the current downward push.  This indicates sideways as well.  Remember, sideways usually ends with a BULL market especially starting in April...Buy breaks.

May Sugar - PB is at 46% and showing sideways tendencies.  The strength index is pointed down which means there is no strength in the current move which is in a lower direction and today's close is the second under the 9 week moving average indicating a short term correction is possible; however, this market is tied to the energy complex now and anything could happen.  The Chart is showing an overall Kondratieff type of top but I don't have much confidence in this formation.  It seems to stretched out to allow for this formation to actually appear.  The bottom line for this market  remains uncertainty.  I would call it consolidating to sideways which could allow for a little correction near term; however, remember in a sideways market, when you get a sell signal you should buy it.  We'll see if that is what happens right here as we generate sell signals.  We would stand aside and wait for better information before trading. 

Monday April 10th - 8:00 AM -     USDA WASDE REPORT

Comment -  This morning's report is a big nothing as far as I can tell.  The USDA didn't change much and that was what we were expecting.  It is the May 12th report that is going to be huge. 

They kept beans carryover the same which might be supportive but not for long. 

Corn carryover didn't drop as much as expected but we are talking 50 million bushels so it isn't big enough to stop the higher price move. 

There was a small decrease.  My first update didn't have all classes of wheat in it.  Weather will be the factor in the trade today.

Rice carryover was raised by 1 million cwt. but lowered in the long grain category by 200,000 cwt so not much of a change here.  There should be no big response to the USDA report based on these numbers.  I expect more of a follow the leader until we can get a better handle on acres.  

Friday April 7th - 2:00 PM -  

Comment -  Monday's USDA report may not tell us much but we will be here with a quick look at 8:00 AM Monday morning. 

Corn - PB is up to 73% tonight which means we have plenty of room on the upside.  We started lower but the market wouldn't stay down and it ended up making a new contract highs for July.  Open interest is still 20,000 contracts below the record so there is room fro expansion there as well.  Tonight's COT report will be interesting.  We are still holding at 60% long looking for the drought trade to move us higher.  That will come after a break.  60% long is a huge long position for hedgers who should be looking to sell new crop at some point.  That point in time is not yet.  

While I say that, I am aware that we are sitting on 30 cents of profit in some of these positions.  There will come a time we start closing out our 2005 books but I will still be long some of the old crop into the teeth of the drought scare season.  I can't blame someone for being sold out of old crop and 30 to 50% sold in the new crop even though I think that type of marketing plan is mechanical and does not analyze the market.  I think the mechanical approach guarantees you below average price over the years.  For me, the question remains risk.  Where is it in corn.  At $2.65 in July futures, there is going to be a growing risk factor and we will start peeling off the positions to get ready to be short.  We will use the profits to have drought trades in place and we will start selling new crop as we see the risk grow.  Near term...I ask again, "where is the risk?"

Soybeans - Back down today as the market tries to deal with bearish fundamentals.  As we go into the weekend, I see this market as still 4 to 8 weeks from drought trade status; however, if you want to trade this using options for a drought, the time is now. 

Wheat - Not much of a pull back.  We'd like a little more of one to get on the buy side.  The weather forecast has changed for dryer conditions and if it gets real dry, we could see a test of the highs here.  Next week will be an important week.  

Rice - Traders are glad to let it sit.  Commercials want to pay higher prices for physicals longer term as they sure aren't interested in buying in their shorts in the futures and driving prices higher.  We like it too.  Monday's report may be a hair bearish because the USDA can't stand it after the NASS bullish report.  (I'm just kidding)  I think the slow trade today is all report related and the question remains for me "where is the risk".

Natural Gas -  Well, I can't pull the trigger here.  The market moved lower but crude won't stay down and on the break buying surfaced.  Natural Gas fundamentals are very bearish here but everyone knows it.  I thought this morning that reality was dawning on the traders indicating that the gas flow was now going to turn the market decidedly bearish.  The action today coupled with crude tells me nothing more than I already knew...this is going to be a tough one.  Let us see how the market trades early next week.  The bears have plenty of bullets they can waste given the current gas supply.  By that I mean, pushing hard to the downside right now won't really hurt them much if they are wrong.  Where is it going to go on the upside near-term?  Time is on the side of the bears for the next two months.   

Cattle -   Read last night....  Up 170 points today....What a great week for us in this market.  Today's pop was right to where I thought it would go as a first response and there is still another 100 to 200 points up possible before any major pull back.  We moved into the cash market a bit today and that  put us long futures so we did take some profits out of our trade but that was just us.  We do not recommend coming out of long positions right now if its a hedge and specs should now follow the market with some stops.  If your buying cash, we would recommend staying even but I doubt my saying that will entice many of you to do it!!!

If you are going to speculate, today's low is a good place for stop near term.  A bounce to 79 cents is possible but at that level we may be saying to exit long hedges re-enter a short position in cash (cash only) or look to the cash cattle market for coverage and lift hedges.  MAN I LOVE THIS STUFF!!!! 

DOW - Today's low (so far as it is still trading) is right on the reactionary low.  IF you hear that the down closed lower than 100 points on the day, we have a top and "Houston, we have a problem!!!

Thursday April 6th - 4:00 PM -  

Corn - Funds were the featured buyers today as we added another 5 cents to the price.  New crop December made a new contract high which is very bullish long term.  We are holding at 60% long and didn't add today.  Tomorrow I would expect a mixed day unless there is something new in the outside markets.  Other commodities rallied and there is little doubt in my mind they are all going higher over the next several months.  We will buy breaks and still think we have plenty of time.  One thing to remember, if weather hinders planting, we will not buy more acres of corn; however, if planting is going smoothly and without a hitch, some farmers will just keep on planting corn. 

Soybeans - Higher but so what...where is it going?  That question remains the main focus of traders until they get nervous about drought conditions.  Too much rain is bad for beans as it makes up the mind of the "fence sitter"  on whether they should plant corn or beans.  I still think there is time to buy acres back in corn but time will soon start running out.

Wheat - $3.71 in July is resistance.  Tomorrow will be very interesting.  A pull back to $3.60 in the July may be a buy point but we need more trading info before making a trade like that.  A major buy signal occurs at $3.75 tomorrow.  Doubt that happens.

Rice - A "V" day as we started unchanged, worked lower and then closed unchanged.  We hope the market just sits here another 3 to 4 weeks.  Long term we want to own more than the 50% we now have.

Natural Gas -  I think the report today was bearish but still within the sideways range.  The down draw of 10 BCF was a little disappointing to the bulls and it did give notice we are moving into a time where inventory is going to go up.  The only questions is...at what rate?   We remain short the July $7.00 put and know we will get a little nervous near term if we test the lows.  My guess is they hold for now.  A move under $7.20 in July and I will look at calls for the longer-term situation.

Cattle -   Read last night....  We covered all shorts today.  The market spend most of the day right around the $74.30 level and then closed near the high.  This would indicate the sellers are finished for now and we could see another push higher especially if the corn can correct a bit tomorrow.   We will lift the long hedges when we get a good reason to.  A 50% retracement from here is another $6.00 higher than today's close.  While that may not be possible, a $3.00 bounce certainly is.   We are up about 100 points in our first 50% and and about 40 points in the last 50%.  That averages to about 70.  Today's low becomes the logical stop point and will let us out of hedges with a breakeven trade so that is where we will put the stop tomorrow; however, we may use a close only basis.  Tomorrow will be important to this trade. 

DOW - We don't see much happening here just yet but I just can't get bullish right here. 

Wednesday April 5th - 1:30 PM -  

Corn - No adding today as we bounced back up a bit.  Not much action and for now we like 60% long.  We'll hold there.  The risk is about 10 cents to the downside and in a couple of months, 10 cents will be nothing in this market...I like calls for the upcoming volatility.   

Bean - In the last 15 minutes today, beans took out the low of the day and then turned to take out the high.  It wasn't a big range but it shows that the locals pushed today and couldn't muster the selling to keep the market under pressure.  Its time to look hard at some very cheap options for a possible drought trade.  We are talking about a very small amount of money for some out of the money calls.  More tomorrow.

Wheat - Nothing new.  If the market hold over the $3.40 level, I'm going to like it a lot.  Weather is still something to watch. 

Rice - Another low volume day but no real selling showed in the session.  Where is this one going to go?  There is no way the sellers can push it very hard down (but oh how I wish they would try).  We want to buy breaks but are happy to be long 50% and for now, that is where we will stay.

Natural Gas -  I am going to sound like a broken record (does anyone remember records and what a broken record was?  I'm going to start saying like a stuck CD so the younger guys will know what the heck I'm talking about)...ANYWAY...We are sideways and it remains to slowly loose its volatility.  We will buy breaks because sideways markets are usually, and I must stress, USUALLY a buying opportunity.  The report tomorrow will set direction within the sideways range. 

Cattle -   Read last night....  Yep, we jumped right back in today.  Had to, no choice.  We covered 50% of our short and will cover 100% tomorrow more than likely.  Nothing is different from last night except today was what is called a "reactionary reversal".  In other words, something changed today.  We rallied and established and intraday high and then headed for the lows.  Looked like I was going to be wrong again as I bought the June at 73.60 and was in for the break.  When the market went down on the day, it ran more stops but mine were below yesterday's low.  The market never got there and then turned to rally and at the close went up through the intraday high...this is a reactionary reversal and its the first time we have seen one in cattle for about 13 days.   

PB tonight is at 8.8 in the April and 12.8 in the June.  Upside target is no worse than $76.00 from here and I think we could run higher over the next several weeks.  We will still need to watch this trade closely.

Last night I suggested that IF I was speculating I would buy the market at 74.05 and stay in it only if it closed at a profit.  Tough situation as it traded through the stop at the very end.  If your in at that level, you are in.  The stop has to be at yesterday's low or if we get a reactionary reversal to the downside in the next few days.

DOW - We don't see much happening here just yet but I just can't get bullish right here. 

Tuesday April 4th - 3:00 PM -  

Corn - The pull back today looks like an attempt to close the gap from 2.39 in July made on last Friday's open after the report.  It is a true gasp in corn and most traders would look at it as a break away gap or breakout gap.  The market couldn't make new highs so the gap didn't hold as being that strong and this sets up a break back to close the gap.  We remain long 60% in corn and will adjust to no more than 70% with out taking out the contract highs.   Long-term we like owning corn but over the next 6 weeks, it could be a whiplash type market.  Tomorrow, I'll look at adding another 5% if we can spike down toward the $2.40 level by 11:30.  Otherwise, I'll stay right where I am.

Bean - 8 cents and counting.  That is how far we closed off of the lows for the past 12 months.  I think we will make new lows but remember, if we get a weather scare, this market will put on some major drought premium.  We are just way too early to trade futures on that.  Options is another story.  For now, we will await next Monday's report before doing anything.

Wheat - We remain on the sidelines watching the weather.  $3.40 in July is a pivot point for sure.

Rice - WMP - Unchanged - Quiet day.  There is plenty of rice around so no reason to be aggressive buyers here.  We have sold cash and are long 50% in the buy back.  We will wait for another buy signal to move up to 60%.  

By the way, the gap here is NOT a true gap.  Anyone calling this a true gap is nuts...the reason is that the market traded in the price range of the gap within the prior 5 days of when it was made.  A true chartist will not call this a gap...they can call it a partial gap but it means nothing to the overall basics of the chart.  In order for it to be a true gap, there can be no trading in the gap range for 5 days either side of the gap.  We gapped from 8.65 to 8.76 but if you look at Monday's trading range, we traded within this price range.  In other words, the gap is meaningless.   

Natural Gas -  Still looks sideways to me.  This could lead to another leg down but it may take a few weeks to develop.  As we get through April, I'm going to get pretty nervous for gas buyers.  June 1st is right around the corner and the Gulf of Mexico is very warm.  We will be looking at several positions to cover risk when the time comes.

Cattle -   OK...so I jumped too fast.  Heck I'm short and nervous!!!  We bought 50% of our base position and sets stops on the lows of yesterday.  We lost as the market collapsed down through yesterday's lows and then added a free fall of about 130 more points.  We will take our hit and keep looking for a reason to cover short positions.  Tomorrow, that comes in at $73.60 where we will move right back into the 50% long position.  WHY???

Lets talk...The cattle feed lots are full no doubt.  Even so, cash cattle are over $10.00 higher than futures.  Feeder numbers will stay up but lots are working to become more current because they are in the "squeeze shoot" now.  (A little cattle lingo there!!)  Once they are current, the cattle weights will be lower at slaughter and that will leave a bunch of small specs short futures with smaller numbers of heavy weights to help out. 

From a technical standpoint, PB tonight is at 8.6%.  That means that, from a technical standpoint, 92% of the market is short...92%!!!!  We are on the verge of a major low and cattle may bounce 3 to 5 bucks to equalize the basis which right now is incredible.   This is why we will buy early to cover shorts.  I don't mind giving them 50 cents when they give me $1.30.  For specs...don't do it....

My suggestion for speculators is stay clear and wait.  Tomorrow,  if I were speculating, I would buy the market at 74.05 and stay in it only if it closed at a profit; however, this is still a dangerous trade.

DOW - We don't see much happening here just yet but I just can't get bullish right here. 

Monday April 3rd - 4:00 PM -  

Corn - Let me start by saying to please read last Friday's update.  The market action today shows nothing to get too excited about.  Will the planted acreage report hold or will the idea of higher prices buy more acres??  The main thing going against more acres is the costs of inputs being so much higher.  My guess is we may buy some but for the most part, farmers this year will not bet on a higher price unless they are actually offered one.  I like owning corn on breaks.

Bean - We are now 14 cents higher than the contract lows.  Can we bust through?  Yep, but it may take the S&D report next Monday to do it.  Remember, this April report will  NOT  show projections for the 06'-07' crop year.  The initial report for the new crop year comes out in May.  Even so, the April report could look bad for beans given all of the current supply and no sign of a weather scare just yet.  I won't own options here until we get past that report.  

Wheat - Read Friday's report...The answer to the question of holding price was a resounding "NO".  We remain on the sidelines watching the weather. 

Rice - Market sold off today under profit taking which I am more than glad to see.  Some traders say the report on acres will end up being wrong as the report itself is encouraging plantings.  Obviously, traders don't buy fertilizer do they?   I think it will take $9.50 plus to buy any acres and then it will be only a few. 

Cattle -   Read Friday's report as we said we would let the market tell us to buy it.  That happened today but not convincingly.  We may be early again and time will tell.  After making a new low for June, the market turned and closed higher even with a mid-day push lower.  That push failed and the market rallied in the last 30 minutes to complete the Hook Reversal up.  We bought it early this morning as soon as we went up on the day from the new contract low.  If we make new contract lows again, we will exit the position.  We bought 50% of our base today and our sitting on a profit tonight.  Again, we have been short the market and are covering that short.  Short specs and those wanting to own cattle as a spec position should look to lift some positions or go long if today's high is taken out and then consider lifting all hedges if we move over 76 cents which is a major buy signal.