Progressive Futures -- Update

Monday April 30th -

Corn – Corn finished down 5-6 with the trade expecting a 25-35% planted number this afternoon but it came in at 23%. The average for this time of year is 46% and with a good week we may get to 45% next week when the average is 66%. Bottom line is that we are behind and we will not catch up. If we were planting 75 million maybe but we are looking at 88 to 90 million and the odds are just not in our favor. EVEN SO...the trend is down and until it is broken, the bears are in control. Tomorrow, they will be backing up at least that is what the market looks like tonight. As I type this we are still an hour away from the opening of the night trade but I can see the bids and it looks like we will open 3 to 5 higher right now. I remain bullish over the longer term but another push is possible until the die hard bears who still think this is 1993 finally are running for any cover they can find. We remain long the 370/450 call spread or straight futures on 25 to 50% of your base futures position.

Wheat – Down hard on the close but I think its more of a broker taking profits then market news type of selling. The crop condition is worse but the good to excellent did not drop that much. I still see the market higher but this correction could last a little longer. I am buying the break.

Beans – Up 4 1/2 as the bulls look out from behind the corn planters hoping they are running double time. No change in our outlook here. Sell rallies.

Rice – Quietly lower today. We are buying it very lightly here and in a scale down approach. Cuba announced they are taking rice again so maybe we are getting back to some normalcy.

Natural Gas – Up 3 with crude. We are just about out of time but we have a few weeks left for a break here. If crude takes out 67.00 or RBob takes out $2.45, we will be finished and higher prices are dead ahead.

Crude Oil – Correction day with the market down 75 in June. We will buy the break here.

Cattle – Higher today. No real direction.

Dow – Well we weren't up 15 points for the third day in a row as the market broke 58 today. Still no sign of a major break coming but a close back under 12,000 this week would be very bad news.

Cotton – Down again with July now under 50 cents. Still no reason to own it.

Friday April 27th -

Corn – Down 1 to 6 as the market was on the defensive all day but at least there wasn't a 20 cent range. We did break early as expected but the market saw the selling dry up and come back to settle in down a few and that is where it closed. The 6-10 day forecasts are drying out and heating up so early next week we may see at least one more push down but again, the money is made when the market goes up because its dry not down. Nothing has changed for us this week as we want to own a break here and still see planted acres lower and one big price move higher later this spring.

Wheat – Still correcting from the run earlier this week. A lot of selling based on wheat over $5.00. Somehow that will end if we ever go back under $5.00. Frankly, history has nothing to do with this. The other grains do however. I will still buy a break because as of yet, I see no technical reason to sell it.

Beans – Up 4 today as the market is looking out at good planting weather and maybe we will magically plant more corn than it looks like. I doubt it. Acres will be higher here but even so, a weather scare in the next few months is likely so November has a little downside but compared to upside risk with a major weather problem...it is a small risk.

Rice – Higher today in May as some of the shorts came out. This is not what I expected as I have been suggesting a problem with receipts. This will be interesting early next week to see if it holds. New crop was up 2 to 3 and quiet. We are about to push the buy button here but want to see the May deliveries play out a little more.

Natural Gas – Another strong day in the energy complex. Gas made new highs and closed over resistance. We will see how the market deals with this rally in light of excess gas supplies early next week.

Crude Oil – Strong day today as we watch the market go back and forth. Today's move in front of the weekend was speculative in nature.

Cattle – Up the 57 it lost yesterday. No real direction.

Dow – Just like I said yesterday...."Up 15 in a quiet trade." I wonder if it will be up 15 on Monday. I don't think I have ever seen three days in a row like that.

Cotton – Consolidating in an inside day and PB still at 10%. Today's high becomes a logical place to own it.

Thursday April 26th -

Corn – Read last night's comments again...especially the "Lets Talk" section. A 20 cent range in the July contract today and we finished off around 6 cents. What can I say except typical weather market and let me remind you and it is possible to be exactly right on this market and loss 20 cents in a heart beat. As I said last night, we have not closed over the trend line and that remains the case tonight and in fact we are again 14 cents under the trend and 17 off of yesterday's high which I think is a critical chart point. We didn't buy this one and wouldn't until we see a better reason. Remember, the best way to double your money in this market is to fold it and put it back in your pocket.

Wheat – Another day of extremes as the market searches for its true value and wonders about actual damage. I still see the market higher but today may have been a warning day as the action is spike like in formation. Options may be the best way to trade here near term but until I see more information to the contrary, I will buy a break...but I need a break.

Beans – Down 2 today as bean traders are getting whip lash watching corn and wheat trade. There is a long way to go here so be careful. I see it lower as acres will be higher than USDA's numbers but we may see a huge run first. Options are not a bad way to go here.

Rice – Lower in light trade with less than 300 traded in the electronic trade. Some spec selling continues but I think the key issue here is the May deliveries. Once we get into that situation, we will see who or if anyone wants to own old crop receipts. Look for more of the same the rest into May 1st.

Natural Gas – Down 15 today but not a big break. Today's action is a sell signal on the daily system with a key reversal down and in fact it is a massive reversal as we closed below yesterday's low; however, we need follow through as the low today is still in the upper range of the trade for last week. In other words, we are still in an uptrend and the market has not done any damage to traders over the past two weeks...at least not yet.

Crude Oil – A hook reversal down but no major sell signal. That occurs at 64.40 tomorrow in the June contract. We need more down action to put a solid sell signal in here and remember, we are pulling for one so we can take the next buy signal. We remain bullish for the summer.

Cattle – Down 57 today. We want to own it lower but are happy long in the field.

Dow – Up 15 in a quiet trade. It is almost as if people are afraid to breath on it.

Cotton – Down over 130 today as the market is in WAY over sold condition. PB tonight is at 10%...now that is bad. If you want to take a shot at it...here is your chance. If you are short....get out now.

Wednesday April 25th -

Corn – As I cautioned in the mid-day comments, the market didn't hold the limit up gains but here is what it did do...it broker the downward trend line BUT DID NOT CLOSE OVER IT. That is a major issue with me tonight. Today's high is now major resistance but I have to think, we are not ready to move higher here just yet. Longer term yes but near term, there is selling on rallies like this and today it was major.

Let's talk: If you look at the market at 11:30...when I wrote those comments at Mid-day...there were almost 4000 contracts bid at limit up in wheat; HOWEVER, there were 29,000 contracts bid at limit up in corn at the same time. As I sat there after writing the mid-day comments all of a sudden the bid volume began to fall and when it dropped to 9,000 it took only 2 minutes for us to trade off of limit up. That was a big change in attitude is about 5 to 10 minutes. Near term from that action, it looks like we may sell off to find the support. I for one am not a big buyer until wet weather is BEARISH and right now it is BULLISH.

Technically, the trend is your friend and today it was violated but the buyers could only get the market through the trend not close above it so what I will do is adjust the trend line to today's high as the second point of the down trend and say that the market is still in a down trend until this new line is broken and there is a close over the newly drawn down trend. PB to night is 50.2% which is nice but there must be follow through to the PB number to confirm a change in trend and I think the odds are not in our favor on that just yet; however, I am not 100% sure of that in fact I am about 55-45 thinking we could sell lower the next few days to find support. We may in fact take out the trend decidedly tomorrow IF the market has finally figured out that acres are moving back to beans.

Bottom line: This one could go either way and in a big way. Lower your trading size if your speculating and do not trade here unless you can sit and watch it. Sellers of cash, do not sell here unless you just have to because cash corn is easier to hold on your emotions then futures. It will settle down but I don't know when. Longer term, I see this one much higher but it will be hard to hang on in down drafts. Tomorrow, a close over 10 cents higher than today's close is a major buy IF you are short. It could signal sideways as well. WHAT A MARKET!!!

Wheat – Here is what I wrote last night..."Yes I bought it and yes I am nervous. Two days down in a bull market is good place to own especially against a level of support. It may not work but we could bounce from here to see if the trend is still in tact." That worked out very nicely and yes...I sold it at limit up. I also bought back after it came off the limit and then sold it again as it made new lows for the afternoon and corn kept slipping. It is hard to trade this market from a hedgers stand point as we trade it so seldom, but we are still long 50% of the field and I know for some of you that may be 100% of your crop now. If it is not and you are sure you have more to sell...don't. I still see it higher and for speculators, we will buy a break.

Beans – Down 12 yesterday up 10 today and that was after being up 21. This market is weak and may give back all of its gains today in the next few days. This market needs weather to move it higher and that is weeks away. We are not trading it yet and want to buy it longer term from lower levels so that is where we sit tonight.

Rice – Higher today but is this it??? It might be. Tomorrow will be interesting and we may be doing some buying if the market shows strength tomorrow.

Natural Gas – Up 7 and I see nothing to talk about tonight. I want to buy a break but I may not get it. We are running out of time.

Crude Oil – MAN OH MAN...it is a tough one. Today's action was hard to gage but this back and forth trading is a killer. It will not settle down and let us do either side of the market.

Cattle – Nothing today...waiting for news.

Dow – NEW HIGH...YIPPEE!!! Now let's see if holds above this level. I think it will but for how long.

Cotton – Up 48 but nothing to crow about.

Tuesday April 24th -

Corn – I came in this morning surprised that the corn was not higher overnight after the progress report yesterday. The market proved us right in the day session as we finished 8 cents higher. I can see the market starting to consolidate looking for more information and it should. Near term, it is going to be volatile until we find solid support and see how the weather is going to go. Experience says the transition from too wet to too dry takes about two weeks but right now, I don't see that transition happening. Look for more back and forth and remember, the trend is still down.

Wheat – Last night I said we could correct another 12 cents in July and today at the lows we were down 12 cents. Yes I bought it and yes I am nervous. Two days down in a bull market is good place to own especially against a level of support. It may not work but we could bounce from here to see if the trend is still in tact.

Beans – Down 12 today as the market is telling us more beans are on the way than we need at over $7.50. Problem is with this break we are on the wrong side of the weather market possibilities so shorts are always looking over their shoulder. We could still bounce over the next 8 to 12 weeks dramatically on a weather scare. Caution is good thing right here but the fundamentals are bearish and so are the charts.

Rice – We rallied off of being down 10 to 14 earlier in the day only to sell back off so again, we are probing for a low and establishing a "W" bottoming formation. Let's watch it and see how it plays out.

Natural Gas – A little higher as more buying is occurring from power sources afraid of the heat forecasts by some for this summer. We would like to buy a break here but so far, no break has occurred.

Crude Oil – Down hard but off of lows. Off $1.21 as traders keep asking about Nigeria's problems. This was probably profit taking but there could still be more ahead. We liker the long side on breaks but what a tough one to trade.

Cattle – Basically unchanged as the market consolidates a little more.

Dow – Up 34 as we consolidate here as well. Looks like higher prices but a pull back is not out of the question.

Cotton – Still lower. Down 42 and looking really sick. We are not trading it and right now don't even want to watch it...but we will because longer term, it is a sleeper. Remember, the cure for low prices is low prices.

Monday April 23rd -

Corn – Read our comments again from last Friday. Down 8 3/4's today but I am betting it won't be down any tomorrow. Planting progress is set at 11% today compared to an average at this time of year of 22% and a trade expecting 13-17% planted. When you are planting, or thinking about planting 90.5 million acres, you MUST be ahead of schedule or you will not get it all planted. With the forecasts still wet later this week, I expect the market to not like the progress and begin to factor in a shift of 500,000 to 1,000,000 acres back to beans. I already have done that a couple weeks back and wrote about it here but the market is not talking about it yet. They are thinking like traders and not farmers. If you can plant soybeans above $7.00 on time or plant corn 2 to 3 weeks late at $3.50...which are you going to take especially with La Nina advancing every month and forecasts getting hotter and dryer for the summer.

Wheat – Wheat could correct another 12 cents without a problem for the uptrend but it doesn't have to. Down 9 today but even so, the major sell signal is move than 30 cents lower than today's close.

Beans – Down 2 1/2 and still a little oversold. Tomorrow may be a bad day for beans with corn plantings so slow. We still see beans under $7.20 and maybe under $7.00 before a weather market starts.

Rice – Down 4-10 cents. Today's action sets up another push toward the recent lows and a better looking "W" bottom. Planted acres are behind normal and way behind last year so with less acres the yield becomes very important. I will be buying this break.

Natural Gas – Reversal higher today as Gas followed crude higher. Nothing new for us as the market still has nothing greatly bullish to hang its hat on except the strength in the rest of the energy market. That may be enough.

Crude Oil – Strong day today as the market worked higher with all the talk about problems overseas especially in Nigeria. The short term chart is overbought so we wouldn't buy it here.

Cattle – So much for a bearish cattle-on-feed report. June cattle was up 87. We are not ready to own futures just yet.

Dow – Down 43 after the big move last week. I can still see it higher but look at this level, we will be seeing it again if we make new highs.

Cotton – No bear trap yet!!! Today's break did not make new lows in the July so again, I am not trading it but if I were, a move over $52.30 would catch my attention if I needed to own the market.

Friday April 20th -

Corn – As I said this morning, the market early this morning was not a bad place to do some selling. Down 11 cents today as the bull spreading indeed came to an end. What a market, Up 10 then down 10 then up 11 then down 11... Welcome to the market I foretold months ago. A market like we have never seen before and will be in for at least another 4 to 5 months. The trend is DOWN with PB at 35%. Look for the market to again test support and in the next two weeks, once again test the down ward trend line. I like owning it down here but there is time to buy it and so for now, lets wait as we move from too wet to too dry. When a market rallies because it is too wet, odds are 90% that the rally will fail and not prove to be the start of a bull move. This crop will get planted but then the ideas of just how it was put in the ground and the crops condition will start to be the big story and if it turns of or even threatens to turn off too dry, LOOK OUT...like nothing you have ever seen. That is why we want some positions on but not too many and we will own it when it looks right and guys, we are not too far from it looking right.

On more thing...the COT report tonight show the fund long 262,000 contracts but in a net position of 175,000 long because of their options position. As the market goes down, their short position increases because of the delta factor...so be watching for options to start leading us out of the hole when the time is right.

Wheat – Market needs a breather and today we closed 12 off the high and 12 off the low with a 6 cent gain over yesterday's close. What does that tell me??? Not a dang thing!!! There is no sign of a top but there is sign of a slow down so I am buying breaks. That certainly worked this past week.

Beans – Up 5 and still consolidating. No sin of a low here so we may still get another push lower. When the weather market arrives, this one will rally quickly so I am not pushing the short side here at all. Odds are that even if we break another 30 cents, we will trade above the current price level again in the November contract.

Rice – Down 4 to 8 as the market is checking the support again. 10.96 is support in November and if it gives way, we could get a more uniform "W" bottom. That is what we would like to see so we can feel safer about taking a shot at as major bottom formation. Longer term, we remain bullish.

Natural Gas – Up 2 cents and finishing with the market over the $10.00 strike price by 9 cents. The $10.00 Put had 357 contract of open interest coming in this morning compared to the call with only 3. That allowed for some hefty buying under the market to keep those Puts from being exercised. No change in my idea, we may test the recent lows but more and more it looks like we are going no where until more is known on crop acreage and conditions.

Crude Oil – Market reversed back up today finishing up 90 and 160 points off the lows. Let's see what happens Monday but I find it hard to believe we are going to break very far near term.

Cattle – Cattle on feed report today is considered bearish for fat cattle with marketing's below expectations. With the weather the way it has been, how could they have been as high as the traders were expecting?? Anyway, look for a solid break in cattle on Monday. We look to sell the open unless its just crazy.

Dow – Up 150 today as the market goes up on good news...what they think is good news is beyond me but I like the technical action and still see it higher so we continue our position of buying breaks.

Cotton – No follow through to yesterdays reversal. I have seen a few bear traps in my life in cotton and boy does this one smell of it. If we open higher or trade over today's high on Monday. If I was trading it, I would buy the July contract and then place a stop on today's low. May or may not work but if I were trading it that is what I would do.

Thursday April 19th -

Corn – More unwinding of spreads today as May closed 7 higher and December was down 1 on the day. I expect this spread rush to end very quickly. We have rolled about 16 cents out of the spread in the last two days. In general, we are right now approaching the downward trend line which runs through $3.76 in the May tomorrow. PB stands at 39% tonight so again, the market is still entrenched in a down trend and it will take some consolidation or a very sharp move higher to turn this one around near term. I think consolidation is more likely but then this is not just any market.

Wheat – Now this is more like it...up 20 cents today and negating (for now) our concern of a possible short term top. Today's close is significant as we approach contract highs. I expect them to be taken out in July but some back and fill at this time is possible.

Beans – Up 2 and consolidating. PB is at 23% so it is over sold but could still dip another 30 cents before this move down is over. I don't like beans and it will take weather to turn the corner in a big way.

Natural Gas – Down very little as the market has given sell signals but is not moving south. Let's give it some more time.

Crude Oil – Down good today as the market has rolled over. We want to own this break but hope it it gives us a short a couple of bucks lower still.

Cattle – Down 15 today in June and consolidating. We could break out either direction.

Dow – Up 5. The buying is slowing but there is no change in momentum as it is declining. Market could sell off next couple of trading days but its not a high confidence position to take so I would stay out.

Cotton – A massive reversal down after an attempt to rally. We took out the high of the last two days and then collapsed to make new lows. UGLY market. PB is 22% tonight so its way over sold but I wouldn't think about selling some puts until I see that indicator under 20%.

Wednesday April 18th -

Corn – Up 11 with May leading the way. Floor traders said it was unwinding of bear spreads as December finished only 2 higher. The point is...it finished two higher. It will be interesting tonight to see the open interest number. If it didn't drop, something is in the wrong in the ole mill stream!!!! We will comment on this in the morning update.

In general today was a trend day up and it followed a trend day down so lets see what it does tomorrow. The down trend is still in tact and the trend line comes down through $3.77 tomorrow in the May contract which is 14 cents higher then the close of today. I doubt it is tested tomorrow but if it is and open interest went up today, the game is a foot!!!.

Wheat – OK...we have been on the fence the last two days saying we don't like the action. I really don't like today's action. So if you need protection for the next 2 weeks, we would sell something here tomorrow. Other than that, I'd hang tough knowing a downdraft is possible.

Beans – Down another 10 cents here. I have been on the bear side here but still think a weather scare is possible later this summer. Another 40 cents down is possible here before we really hit major support. Of course we could find support well before that too so for now, we will watch the market and see what it gives.

Rice – Dead, dead, dead...enough said. Longer term I like it but near term...who knows.

Natural Gas – No follow through on the downside. This has been happening a lot the last three months as we get a sell signal and next thing it reverses. It could happen again here. The low made the last two days is the key for now.

Crude Oil – Down a little today but not much action. I can see a break here but it is one I want to own.

Cattle – Down today. Here lately, cattle have been following the corn a lot better.

Dow – Up 30 in a straight up move. Will it ever end???

Cotton – Up 65 and on the high. We see it sideways still and for the foreseeable future.

Tuesday April 17th -

Corn – The market collapsed today under ideas that the planting rate is going to catch up. We have been reminding you that the tend is down and that while we are behind in the planted percentage based on the average, we can catch up real fast. The lows of last week are being test and the $3.55 level in July may be tested as well. The downward trend line in July goes through $3.90 tomorrow so it is not even in range. We will need to do some consolidation at some point but right now it looks like the market will take all the premium out of the market. Today was a trend day down in corn and while I didn't expect one I'm not that surprised. Look for the volatility as we head into a time period where we will be watching it go from too wet to too dry. Longer term we think this down trend will be taken out and the market will put in some hefty weather premium. I have been saying, I don't believe the 90.5 million acre number but there is no evidence at all that farmers intentions have changed. That has the market still on the defensive.

Wheat – By, this is getting close. The trend is still higher but too steep. It may be time to take some of the chips off the table and increase some sales. We look to be ready to test $4.80 in the July but I sure want that level to hold on a break.

Beans – Down with the corn...makes no sense unless it's too high to begin with.

Rice – Tomorrow's buy point is at $10.60 in the July. Not sure I will take it but that is where it is.

Natural Gas – Good sell signals in Gas today. We need some follow through to show that the trend is indeed changing.

Crude Oil – Sell signal is setting at $64.30 for tomorrow. Market looks poised to roll over for a bit. We want to buy a break.

Cattle – Up 43 as the market continues to consolidate. No reason to own it here.

Dow – Up 53 in a straight up move. Should go higher but a correction day is likely in the next few days.

Cotton – Down 40 points today. No reason to trade it and we aren't.

Monday April 16th -

Corn – Our morning setup comments were pretty much on target. After the close the crop planting report came in at 4% which is the lowest since 1993. The market is 5 cents higher in the over night trade as I type this. The trend line is now down to $3.92 in the July. The technical action is supportive and if the fundamentals hold near term with another wet forecast, acres will not reach 89 million and that is bullish longer term. The weather forecasts this week will be key but breaking that trend line will send the market higher as the funds come running back in. Based on the COT report last Friday, they are down to 199,000 contracts long after being over 365,000 contracts long. Think about it. $3.89 is our buy point on the technical indicators as well; however remember, the trend is still down until it's not...

Wheat – The trend is up in wheat but very steep. The high on the key reversal down back in February (and the high for the year) is just 20 cents away tonight. Thus is the rally we wanted to sell so for you guys needing to catch up with us on wheat sales, get ready. We can make new highs here but we need the fundamentals to help and right now we need corn to change its trend.

Beans – I'm still not that strong in beans which is holding right in its current range. I think rallies need to be sold but again, the weather will become a major factor here as well. For now we are content and believe the market cannot break very far from here as of April 16th.

Rice – Slant bottom looks more and more like it is in place; however, I would like a few more days to confirm this one. $10.65 is the buy point right now.

Natural Gas – We now have follow through to last Friday's reversal. There is a chance we will see more downside pressure in the near future.

Crude Oil – Trend is up but the market is pausing here and could be ready to check the upward trend line.

Cattle – A little follow through today as the market closes higher. Still oversold a bit.

Dow – Up 100 points as sellers get pinched again. Let's let this market run a bit.

Cotton – Down hard again losing over 90 points today. No reason to trade it and we aren't.

Saturday April 14th -

Corn – The hammer head formation we wrote about here Thursday night worked like a charm as did our day trading strategy for corn from yesterday morning. The market closed very strong, up 10 cents in the corn with weather concerns dominating the market action. Even so, Monday is coming. Weather forecasts can change in either direction and we want to remind you that this crop will get planted but in what conditions? That is unknown so a change back to dryer could unwind the gains of today. As I write this, it still looks wet and the major funds have bought a goodly amount of "put" to protect their backside so right now, the market seems balanced and very close to support. Not a good place to be selling unless you like the basis in cash. The come back in and buy futures or calls. It is a weather market for sure and will be for several months. I hope your ready for it.

Wheat – Very strong as the winter of 2007 will not end. I don't think there is any doubt the USDA will cut the crop condition here Monday afternoon and the traders agree. How much damage is still unknown but it seems likely that this bounce will continue until we have a better handle on it.

Beans – Down 3/4 of a cent. Notice corn up and beans nowhere. Once again, the trade is not trading a lower yield on corn or beans but acre switches at this point. When both corn and beans are in the same direction big, then we are trading yield. This is an acreage market right now and weather is determining it but no one it trading a lower yield. They should be!!!

Rice – OK...we have the slant "W" bottom formation and need follow through on Monday to confirm it. A lot of talk of spill over buying from wheat and corn in the market but I think we exhausted the sellers on this last little GMO issue and now the shorts because of GMO will have to pay to get out. Monday will be an important day for us as we unroll option protection to go back long but we remain at the 50% level. I want to note that the rice crop is not off to a great start in most of Texas but it can correct a lot of that with great weather for a couple of months.

Natural Gas – A hook reversal down today in gas. If there is follow through to the downside that could finally end this normal end of March rally. We want to one this on a swing down but it sure hasn't had one lately.

Crude Oil – Thursday's low of 61.86 is major support near term. A trade under there and even lower is a sell signal; however, the fundamentals do not support a break right here. Refinery levels are back up and gas supplies are down. What may spook oil near term is the actual gasoline futures which put in a hook reversal down on Friday. PB is 78% in gas and the index is climbing but not over done at only 32 (40 is where it runs into trouble). All of that to say, this a little break here may be a great buying opportunity. We will be watching it very close on Monday.

Cattle – Market is oversold and yesterday put in a hook reversal up. Let's see if we get any follow through to the upside Monday.

Dow – Up 60 again as the market looks to reach the February highs. With the economy holding here, I think we may make new highs for later this year but my ideas of a recession in the next 12 months hasn't changed any.

Cotton – Up 14 and dead as a door nail. No reason to trade it.

Thursday April 12th - Due to schedule...a short one tonight check morning update tomorrow

Corn – Down 2 in May but off the lows and it looks like a hammer head formation pointing higher. If we close higher tomorrow, we could test the downward trend line which should run through $3.85 in May tomorrow.

Wheat – A little higher today and well off lows with a hook reversal up. We will see if it follow through tomorrow.

Beans – Down 8 today. The market is telling us again that there is a shift to beans given all the weather and price issues but ids anybody listening.

Rice – Down 14 in old crop today. The market is setup for the "W" bottom. A test of the lows is possible. I will be watching it close tomorrow but I still think we may drift lower and then hold against the recent lows.

Natural Gas – No follow through selling but we finished only 8 cents higher but over $8.00. We could see more short covering here.

Crude Oil – No sell signal as the market reversed big time today and the fundamentals support the change. We should work higher and hold in this level near term.

Cattle – A huge day down with over a 200 point break. If I can get a buy signal down here I will take it but we did some major damage to the market. Another reason why I am not trading it right here but I will own it lower.

Dow – Up 60 with no follow through to the downside. If the market is good it should work higher from here.

Cotton – Down 70 and testing support. If you are long you are on your own. Longer term you can get it back but I would sure roll to the deferred months to hide here.

Wednesday April 11th -

Corn – Market down hard over good weather forecasts for the next two weeks. Will the American model flip back to too wet again??? Who knows but let me make sure I am on the record...THIS CROP WILL GET PLANTED. The issue will become the crop condition as it is planted. Looking at Monday's planting progress, we are right on schedule but Friday's numbers will show us a little behind. In general, my feeling remains that the planted acres will be under 90 million and closer to 89 then 90 when all is said and done. Harvested acres will be around 82 million and that sets up carryover to be right about where it is right now. This keeps the market going crazy from time to time as weather and demand issues surface.

As of this moment, the TREND IS DOWN and support is 20 cents lower then the close on the day. The chart objective remains intact but has been modified to $3.21 in the May. I doubt that is hit but if we drop under $3.40 the odds increase big time. The current trend changes at $3.84 tomorrow. Not going to happen as we continue to keep the trend line over a limits move away from the market. That is not good!!! Today's high is resistance now but again, this is not a normal market so if the weather turns bullish, that level will probably be taken out quickly. It remains a BIG IF for anytime soon.

Wheat – Wheat consolidated today after being higher. Today was a hook reversal down and the short term chart looks weak. It will take more bullish news on last weekends weather to revive the current move higher. May needs to stay over $4.52 to hold the buying power in here. $4.39 is long term major support but once again let me point out...THE TREND IS DOWN. That has not changed and the trend line is up at $4.91 which is forever away for the May contract without major news on supply side losses.

Beans – Beans up 4 cents and as I said this morning, if beans hold up more than corn, look for a sell cycle in corn. Beans didn't do much but they didn't have to with corn selling off.

Rice – More GMO news out and the market got spooked. Funny how that works. We look for a test of support and want to own this break. Remember, the NASS acres report is probably wrong by 30,000 to 40,000 acres as they are too high (what else is new.) The GMO issue is getting less and less distance out there but the current supply of rice is enough to keep the market on the defensive from running away to the upside.

Look for the "W" bottom to form as we have been talking about. May needs to work under $10.00 and right now I wouldn't really want to own it until it's under $9.90. I will own new crop when that happens NOT the May contract.

Natural Gas – On the short term chart, NG looks pretty bad tonight but the daily chart just shows a spike. If we see selling in here tomorrow, we could finally roll over this contract and head lower for a few weeks.

Crude Oil – Another day of consolidation over Monday's low. If we take out $64.10 I will probably short crude using a put spread strategy. I don't trust the Geo-political surroundings of oil enough to even closely want unlimited liability in the crude contract. I will trade short on a day trade but dang it, not over night.

Cattle – June down hard again today. No I am still not trading it but notice how cattle and corn are a bird of feather right now. I might own cattle lower but right here, we are not trading it and like being long the field.

Dow – Market down over 100 at one point finishes off 89. Who knows but I can see it higher. By the way PB is 48% indicating a bearish setup but now there needs to be some follow through.

Cotton – Up 11 as the market looks like it unwound the longs in for the report. They didn't do too well did they??? That is why we are out.

Tuesday April 10th -

Corn – No follow through today as the market had a sell off yesterday to contend with as well as the S&D report this morning which raised the carryover for corn. Weather remains the major factor and the market closed 5 to 8 higher today given concerns of wheat damage and more rain on the way. The American model still shows a break in the wet weather but other models don't agree. Time will tell or should I say, the market will tell.

If you look at the chart the trend is firmly down. Tomorrow that trend line in May goes through $3.89 which is limit up from today's close so it is not going to happen tomorrow but that trend is coming down at the rate of 2 1/2 cents a day which is too steep. I have another indicator signaling support should hold from down to the low of last week. We need to think about moving some cash corn here and locking in the basis and also remember, there is still the talk of La Nina occurring which could indicate a very hot and dry summer. Even so, the trend is down and a move to $3.20 or lower remain possible until the gap is taken away and that will not happen in May until we trade over $3.85. Now you understand why we remain 50% long and 50% short. I like the market higher and I like it higher from here but there is some risk in that position for sure.

Wheat – The market was up 12 cents today and it looks like the market is seeing more damage from last weeks weather. Can we keep on climbing?? Yep. PB is at 53% and that is our signal to be long. Don't get too long here. The strength index is not going with the move yet. It will take some time to turn that indicator higher but it usually works that way. We will sell this bounce at some point but will be patient.

Beans – Nothing new here as beans finish lower. A sure sign that the market is thinking less and less corn acres and more beans. A weather scare is weeks away but it is a real threat this year and we will give the market some room. DO not trade short here in a big way as it can get right down expensive IF the weather turns off Hot and Dry!!!

Rice – Dead today. Last night I gave you some support points for a possible "W" bottom. This is in the May contract and we will use those support zones to trade in September or November based on the spread.

Natural Gas – A strong day in gas as talk of cold weather and fertilizer use is in the headlines. If we close over $8.03 in the May then we are set for another leg up in Natural Gas. Be careful here. Right now it looks like a new leg higher but a bull trap is possible as well.

Crude Oil – Up 40 cents today after yesterday's major sell signal. That is not follow through. Tomorrow will be one of those days where the market needs to prove itself with a trend day.

Cattle – Down hard today. PB is still at 60 but there is no reason for me to trade it yet. I said last night one should sell it here and set a stop over the high. If I would have done that, tomorrow I would take the trade back if takes out today's high but again, I'm not trading it. Maybe that means it will work!!!

Dow – Up 4 as the market is dead here.

Cotton – Down 20 and near the lows...that is follow through. The market is still sideways overall and is oversold near term so a bounce is probable off of the 53 cent level in July. That is where I would take in shorts tomorrow. Long positions could be started for a scaled in buying approach beginning at the $52.80 level. I would buy a small percentage there and then again every 40 cents down.

Monday April 9th -

Corn – Boy oh boy!!! Up 15 at the start and down 3 at the close...not what the bulls wanted today as corn forecasts changed to dryer out 10-14 days. Our weather man says it not going to stand but the 10-14 day this afternoon is what traders will look at near term and it shows dry weather moving into the heart of the corn belt and that means the crop is going to get planted IF the forecast is correct.

With all the weather hardly anyone is even looking at the S&D report for tomorrow. I expect it to be a big nothing. It is the May report that will give us the first real look at the USDA's numbers for the 2007 crop going in the ground right now.

From here, the thing to do is look for trend days and see what happens. Today was a beauty and it points the market down right here. gaps are going to be hard to trade as there could be many in the days and weeks ahead. It when the market moves that it tells you who is in control. Right now, I give it to the bears but it may not last for long. Remember, weather will go from too wet to too dry and when it is in transition, the market will favor the bears. There is more downside coming but from what level??? Hard to say. Looking at basis, the market is not going to break a lot from here but we hope it breaks too far. We are looking to own it.

Wheat – How much damage from this weekends cold weather is not going to be known until later in the week. I expect some but the market was anxious to sell today after touching limit up in the old crop. Near term, it all depends on weather and just how much damage was done.

Beans – Beans took it harder today as again a delay in corn plantings increases bean acres. I still think the final corn acres will be under 89.5 and more likely under 89. This leaves beans very vulnerable to selling pressure once the crop size is known and weather scare abate. We want to be short beans but still think we have some time here to probe higher on scares.

Rice – Lower in a quiet session. Will rice make a "V" bottom??? Right now it is looking more and more like it but this week may be critical. A move under 10.17 sets up a test of $10.00 and a move under $10.00 confirms a test of major support and a possible "W" or slant "W" bottom. We stand by our ideas to buy a break here.

Natural Gas – Down with the rest of energy even though its cold. Market is testing trend and may be rolling over.

Crude Oil – Well, today we got our break and I wonder if it will hold or not. RBOB and heating oil did not break like the crude today. That is unusual and has my attention. We'll wait for more information here but we want to own this break especially if it can get some traction and affect the gasoline and heating oil.

Cattle – Up 45 points and near the highs. I still like this for some reason but there are some technical problems. June needs to close over 97.50 to setup a test and possibly move into new highs; however, a smart way to play is sell it here and set a stop over 97.50 and if I were trading it, that is how I would do it.

Dow – Up 8 and waiting for more news.

Cotton – Down 100 points confirming the sideways action. Still not trading it and looking for some demand to start affecting this one.

Saturday April 7th -

Corn –

On Thursday the market was up over 6 cents on weather concerns and as of today (Saturday) the weather is not looking any better. Cold and wet weather is now expected through April and it is looking more and more like a huge delay is coming on corn getting in the ground. I will up date the site Monday morning with new weather forecasts but for now it looks wet through the 20th. Is that long enough??? Probably not but this is a cycle.

Wheat – Another big move on Thursday with all the cold weather. It did not get cold enough to hurt the wheat is most areas so Monday's trade will be interesting.

Beans – Obviously, the beans are on the bubble if corn acres don't get planted. I am still bearish here but not ready to pull the trigger as it will take more time for information regarding plantings to actually come to the surface.

Rice – Old crop higher and new crop lower. Market is very quiet waiting for more information on exports and acres actually getting planted.

Natural Gas – Up a couple of cents on Thursday. Looks like gas is really making a shift in floor levels given the current fundamentals.

Crude Oil – Quiet into the close so nothing new to report. We are looking for a break to own.

Cattle – Up 77 points as corn worked higher and weather concerns are now surfacing for cattle as well.

Dow – Up 30 at the close. Nothing new for us.

Cotton – Down 19 on Thursday with the market looking sideways still.

Wednesday April 4th -

Corn – OK...this is officially the first bounce and rule number one is DON'T BUY IT. Even so, let me hedge that statement by saying if there is going to be an exception to the rule this could be it. Right now, I would doubt it but next week could be a different story. We did finish 13 higher today with a semi-trend day higher.

Let's Talk: I have already stated that I doubt we ever plant 90.5 million acres and some of the floor traders have picked up the same thought (not from me) and today started voicing that opinion. The weather is too cold for field work in many locations, there is wet weather forecast and finally, there has been a break in the price of corn of 66 cents in the new crop. That is not exactly shoring up the plans of a lot of farmers. Look at open interest. It looks like the funds have gotten out of all the old crop and moved every thing into new crop. The COT last Friday showed the funds down to like 60,000 contracts in old crop and up to 200,000 long in the new crop. The last month has seen a lot of bear spreading by unwinding long old crop positions where the funds are not that big of player in the old crop any longer. That is bullish for May and July against December. Finally, the cash corn basis has rallied more then 15 cents in the last 7 days. We get a 40 cent decline in futures and only 25 cents in cash indicating demand is very strong on this break. The bottom line to this remains a good bullish undertone; however, there are enough negative indicators to say be patient. It is April 4th and I have not seen many crops not get planted; however, I have never seen a year with 90.5 million acres. I was not around in 1944 which was the last time we had this many acres. If the weather corrects and the last have of April starts to look good and dry, then we will test the lows again. Be patient and give the market some room.

Wheat – Up 10-12 cents today on cold weather and some demand in the export market. My guess is had corn been down 12 cents today wheat would not have been up 10. It's like wheat has become a mini contract to corn.

Beans – Down again today as traders get concerned about a shift from corn to beans. I almost guarantee it. Has anyone bought Urea recently?? If your choice is corn with a 190 bu. yield and beans with a 60 bushel yield, the price of fertilizer can become a major factor.

Rice – Up 3 cents today in a very quiet session. I still think the market may roll over to look for support.

Natural Gas – Up 8 cents with the strength in the complex. The announcement on a conclusion to the Iran hostage issue sent Crude plummeting but it came back and that helped the whole energy complex close firm.

Crude Oil – Market broke big after the Iran announcement but it didn't stay down as many specs tried to profit from a quick break and bought in their shorts.

Cattle – No confirmation of the top we spoke of yesterday. Today was an entirely inside day so as we head into the last trading day before Easter, the setup for selling remains.

Dow – Up 19 points with little aggressive selling. I expect a quit day tomorrow with all the Passover celebrations going on and the long weekend dead ahead.

Cotton – Up 31 and quiet. Tomorrow should be the same.

Tuesday April 3rd -

Corn – Market lower again today. As I said this morning, the corn market needs to find the place where the buying really enters and selling dries up. Right now, that is not happening and in fact, we could see May head toward $3.20 before it happens. The gap from the announcement projects a move to $3.14. Supply seems to be plentiful at the moment so the supply driven bull market has been halted until that supply becomes questionable again. PB is 17% tonight which is where short should cover but again, there are a lot of dynamics affecting the market. Today's high is resistance for now but there remains a lot of longs in the market and they need to get out. Remember, funds can shift from being long to being short and that is a whole lot of selling power. Do not be long here and again, don't buy the first rally which to be honest hasn't even happened yet. The S&D report is dead ahead and it will be interesting to see the carryover numbers from the USDA on the first report.

Wheat – Down 7 to 8 but still not closing below yesterday's lows which in my book are important. We may test them again.

Beans – Down hard today as we may have found our resistance point I have been talking about the last several days. I need to see some more follow through.

Rice – Down 3 cents with the market very well balanced. I can see it wither way but still feel a test of the upside buying is likely. As I have pointed out, a bottom in rice is not usually a "V" formation but this time it could be different.

Natural Gas – Market closed down over 23 cents with a sell signal in the May and June contracts. The strength numbers to the move are working lower indicating no more is underway while the PB sets at 53 after rising to 65. This indicates weakness and a possible top with a change in direction possible. Not trading it right now but I can see a break as I have been saying and if I get one, I will be buying it for the summer months which could be something.

Crude Oil – Down hard today. Is this a top for now?? Could be. I am not a big bull right here and think some down side action is needed. We will see if today's low can be violated in the next two sessions.

Cattle – June cattle down hard today with a MASSIVE Key reversal down. We took out yesterday's high, low and and closed below the low. If we get selling tomorrow it is confirmation of a top and guys...this could be a MAJOR TOP. All Kondratieff formations are in place so this could be a big one.

If you have fat cattle to hedge do so NOW and place stops at today's high plus a few points. If corn is headed below $3.20 nearby, fat cattle prices cannot hold at this level with the current placements we have and more anticipated.

Dow – Last night I wrote this..."Up 30 as I write this. Market is up off lows but no real strength; however, the selling is sick and that is when someone comes in and moves the whole thing higher so that is what I am looking for right now." Are we good or what. Up 128 points today. Now lets see if the selling increases.

Cotton – Down 37 again today. Still doesn't change my ideas that we need to rally to find resistance...but I am starting to re-think things.

Monday April 2nd -

Corn – I understand that there was a problem with our server this morning and the morning comments didn't get posted. Please read the "note" above regarding not getting the correct information. Sometimes, by hitting that link it will fix the problem. Anyway, you can read the morning comments now and see we had said to not trade today. We said that the market should open limit down and then trade off limit at some point. I also said it could go right back down to limit down at the close and it almost did closing down 19 1/2 to 19 3/4 with December down 14 1/2. Now what?

I have a rule not to buy the first bounce. That is usually a mistake and so I think we may see even more pressure near term with a break back down to $3.50 or below. The fact we didn't close limit down may bring those who like buying the first wave or those who want to buy in some shorts to the market tomorrow. For me, I'll let it trade and the dust settle. Read our comments for Friday as they still hold. Do not expect this market to explode right back up any time soon. We need the supply to be put in question and that will be weather. Near term I still think defensively on prices but cash marketers may get a good basis to sell into in the next few weeks.

Wheat – Well off the lows today as the sellers got way to short. Wheat rallied 14 cents while corn remained sharply lower. I am not trading here as the volatility is high and risk is substantial in either direction.

Beans – Strong day today as the market does what we explained about on Friday. We need to find the overhead resistance level. Ideas that corn is still the crop of choice could let us run even higher. We will be watching this closely looking for a place to do some heavier selling in the beans.

Rice – Nice move higher as the market found no sellers willing to press the market with wheat and beans coming off lows and corn trading at limit down. Let me say again that rice doesn't usually make a "V" bottom but in this case it certainly could given all the fundamentals driving this market. PB is back to 40% which is where normally we would start to see some resistance show up so we will watch to see if that happens or we continue on the move higher.

Natural Gas – Down but off of lows. We are looking for a break here to own for a while.

Crude Oil –Big range but closed unchanged. Hard call so for now we await more news but it looks to me like a solid correction is coming.

Cattle – Very strong day today with the corn market in the tank. Technically June has resistance at 97 to 97.50 so don't be too surprised if a rally back in corn doesn't hold this market from testing its contract high. Watch for a possible Hook reversal tomorrow and if it starts to happen, I will sell the market in a hedge for summer calves.

Dow – Up 30 as I write this. Market is up off lows but no real strength; however, the selling is sick and that is when someone comes in and moves the whole thing higher so that is what I am looking for right now.

Cotton – Down 37 doesn't change my ideas that we need to rally to find resistance.