Friday August 31st-

Corn – Up 1 1/2 with the market finishing higher for the first time in about 5 days.  That was with wheat down 7 while putting in a hook reversal down in the old crop and a key reversal down in the new crop.  (see wheat below)  Near term we could see corn bounce a little but I am not very hopeful of that.  Over the next several weeks I see corn working lower and then basing for a rally into he spring.  I want to sell puts at some point starting our buy back program in a conservative move.  Then look to buy call spreads and futures once we know the basing period is over and the market needs to buy supply out of storage.  That may be November but I'm not ready to really say that.  You should have sold anything you had to sell and holding the rest in storage.  The basis is so bad here, we cannot sell anything so we are locked into our current plans of buying this break which may have another 20 cents down in it and maybe even more.  In any event, this break is a buying opportunity so get ready.   

Wheat – The market started sharply higher but ended down on the day and 30 cents off of its high.  The December contract put in a hook reversal.  That is when you take out the preceding day's high and close lower for the day compared to a key reversal where you take out both the high and the low of the preceding day and close lower.  A massive key reversal down would have occurred in the new crop today if it had closed below yesterday's low, as is, it is a key reversal down. 

Now we start looking at today's low.  Here is what you will need to watch for.  First, you do not want to see the market lower on Tuesday.  Second of all, you do not want the market to trade where the high of the day (any day in the next week) is below today's low.  So if Tuesday we gap lower and never get back to today's low, the market is signaling major top.  HOWEVER.... Please read this morning's comments.  This is not a typical market and there had better be some sound fundamental reasons for today's break.  Even so, I will re-iterate that if I was long wheat in anyway or in any form, I would be selling it TONIGHT!!!  Odds are increasing we are at the top. 

Beans – Down 2 and really looking over their shoulder at wheat.  A short term top is possible here also but it is not where we want to do any selling just yet.

Rice – Up 14 with the market liking the stocks report this morning.  It looks normal but I did see that the mills were holding about 20% less milled rice than a year ago.  Some pent-up demand could surface but I wonder if we can take off before harvest is well underway in Arkansas???  Next week is very important and if we work higher early, especially if wheat is lower, than look for a possible test of contract highs earlier than I thought.  It will be interesting. 

Natural Gas – Down 20 but still open.  Looks like the storm will not be a major impact on market conditions until latter in the week.  It will have to threaten the gulf producing platforms to get much of a kick out of it.  Fundamentals remain bearish. 

Cattle – No reason to do anything.

Dow –   Another strong day with the market thinking past results guarantee future rewards.  I don't buy it and still see a recession.  There is just too many warnings coming from the Fed and the bond market to get past this situation.  I look for more bad news in the form of a major loss by one of the big banks as more and more revaluation of assets and risk continues.  I am not trading it and still stand 100% in cash. 

Cotton – Strong move higher today.  This may launch us into a bull move.  Next week will be very important in confirming this. 

Thursday August 30th-

Corn – Down 1 today and that is 9 cents off its highs.  Even with all the other grains sharply higher, the buyers just couldn't overmatch the selling in corn.  Look for more downside in the weeks ahead as we head into harvest and it appears yields are higher than first thought.  We are looking to sell Puts but we have time.

Wheat – Another strong day up 24 and at one time touching limit up (30 cents).   Will we climb over $8.00??  I think odds are 60-40 right now but I would have put them higher if we could have closed limit up today.  We maybe very close to the top here with all indicators now screaming that a top is imminent.  PB is at 84% with the short term indicators over 90%.  

Beans – Up 10 cents and closing in the middle of the range.  This rally is now starting to look like it is in trouble.  Even so, we look for a break here and then a longer term rally.

Rice – Up 35 and at one time up the 50 cent limit.  The sales number was large today with over 90,000 MT to Iraq alone.  Couple that to wheat touching limit up and the rest of complex higher and there just wasn't any selling.  We will see the stocks number tomorrow and see if rice can finally break out to the upside.  I don't think it will right now but heck, I've been wrong before. 

Natural Gas – Nothing out there to scare the bears so we will drift lower until they have a storm to deal with more than likely.  I want to own this longer term but right now, it is a dog for the bulls and the bears have rung about all the juice they are going to get out of it.

Cattle – Again nothing to do here.

Dow –   Down as I type this but who knows how it will end.  The volatility indicates a possible top but there is a lot of money playing this game so we may not be through just yet. 

Cotton – Up on sales this morning.  Still sideways as I see it.

Wednesday August 29th-

Corn – Even with wheat up 21 cents, corn is still firmly entrenched on its downward plunge.  The December $3.10 put is now selling for 9 1/4 and we think it will get over 10 cents near term.  If we can sell off toward $3.20 which is major support, the put could be as high as 13 cents which is going to look very attractive for the longer term situation.  For now, I still see it lower although we may bounce tomorrow a bit.  We will use this break to start buy backs for any corn sold in distress because of storage issues.  December 2008 corn settled at $3.89 down only 2 cents so there is little pressure on the new crop.

Wheat – With no break down under support during the day session, buying resurfaced and took wheat to new highs.  This could be the final push for this run as we exhaust the market into new highs.  Tomorrow needs to hold above the $7.50 level.  We will be looking for a bull trap but the main thing is we are not trading this one yet at all.  It will give us plenty of time to catch part of the ride down and I do not want to be trying to pick a top.

Beans – Up a couple of cents with no real direction today.  I can see this one still higher as we head into the September report.  The thing we are looking for here is a low in the corn to help support the beans.  That may not happen for a bit but still it will certainly bolster beans when the downside risk in corn is gone.

Rice – Down 15 today.  Apparently concern that the stocks report on Friday are going to be bearish as the market working lower.  Let's see...almost all of that information comes from the mills.  SO is there a chance this report is going to be bearish where the price of rice could be cheaper???  Nah!!!  They wouldn't do anything like that!!!  We will wait for the report and then probably buy the break along with every mill in the United States.

Natural Gas – Down 15 with no new news and an injection number in the morning.  We may see some more tropical action next week so this market may not be able to stay down here very long.

Cattle – Nothing new here.  It may take some news to pop this one one way or the other. 

Dow –   Down 280 yesterday and up 200 today (with 30 minutes left).   This type of action is hard to read and usually indicates the market is going to work back higher but it will take more news to drive it away from this current range.  I am afraid the new news is not going to be favorable.

Cotton – Nothing new.  Not trading it at all.

Tuesday August 28th-

Corn – Down 8 today as the crop conditions and ideas crop size is going to get bigger send the market lower.  Beans and wheat trading near unchanged couldn't give much support.  Short term support at $3.40 held today but I can still see corn testing the $3.25 level in December.  If you want to do some buybacks, look to sell Puts on this break.  The December 320 put is trading at 8 cents and what we will do is look to sell it around 12 which will take another 10 cents down.  That puts you in a position to either own Dec around $3.10 (after commissions) or put 10 to 11 cents in your pocket to help finance your buy back at a later time.  Again, near term as we have been stressing, the market can work lower (even though tomorrow is setup to be higher) but on the long term we want to be owners of this market especially if we can own it in that $3.10 to $3.25 window.

Wheat – Finished basically unchanged but it had been higher and when you see the chart it looks like a spike.  Today's high is now major resistance.  If you read our morning comments we cautioned that with the market up 10 cents overnight to look for a reversal and especially if we see the market down on the day.  The problem was we opened up 7 and immediately sold off on the day which was not what I wanted to see.  I had hoped for a push higher and then a break.  With the market closing like it did, it is a bearish setup but we may still work higher.  Today's low needs to hold at 7.34.  That price has been the low for the day session 3 days in a row.  There will be stops under that price and if it can bust below $7.20, the odds go up that this is the top for wheat.

One more thing...CNBC ran a special about wheat on Monday.  That maybe the kiss of death as the street now is in to buy wheat and the market didn't do anything the last two days.  A classic line is what when the street starts buying it...it is time to sell.  We will see if that is right this time.  Specs should be very cautions here but buying some put ratio spreads maybe a safe way to play this.

Beans – Still setup to go higher after today's nothing day.  I would call this a day of consolidation which would point to a higher day tomorrow.  With the corn showing support late in the session and wheat poised to test resistance as well, beans could still move higher over the next few days; however, if the wheat really hits some selling and corn can't hold today's low, beans may drop back to find major support which is about 20 cents lower than today's close. 

Rice – Down 12 cents today as once again rice can not break out to the upside.  Patience...it will longer term one way or the other.  Near term we could test the 10.60 level again especially as harvest moves north.  Once we find a home for this crop...look out!!!

Natural Gas – Up over 20 today as we rebound from an oversold condition.  Tropic information now has another storm forming by September 7th with 60-40 odds.  We could bounce back a lot more near term. 

Cattle – Nothing new here.  It may take some news to pop this one one way or the other. 

Dow –   Down 280 as the the market remains in re-allocation mode.  I like owning the Dow lower as the market maybe at value by some calculations but a good correction will take a market below value.  Remember, value is based on what has happened and what is in the past is no guarantee for the future. 

Cotton – I don't see any reason to do anything here.  Maybe the next USDA report will have a better insight for us. 

Monday August 27th-

Corn – With the farm tours in the Mid-west saying corn yield will be at 153 bushels per acre, the market broke today in the corn and last night it broke very hard.  We opened up down 10 cents this morning but trimmed those losses throughout the day.  Beans were higher for much of the day and finished right against their highs so corn was supported by that strength.  This afternoon's crop conditions report should provide more direction in the days ahead.  We are still expecting a little break here as the market factors in yield and concerns that the USDA is going to increase the carryover next month.  I can see December down to the $3.35 level but not for long.  If the beans can rally from here, the corn could actually hold its current levels.  Longer term we still see it higher and want to hold all the cash corn we can at this basis level.

Wheat – Down 3 and again in quiet trade.  One more push up is not out of the question.  While we could be forming a top, in a supply driven bull market tops are hard to get completed and very difficult to call.  Major support is at $7.21 tomorrow which is down 18 cents from where it closed tonight.  It looks like it wants to go higher before confirming the top but I do not have a lot of confidence in either direction the next few days. 

Beans – Another day up as ideas grow that the beans maybe in trouble.  Crop conditions may add to that tonight.  No one can deny that the market has been very strong on this run and today's action just points even higher.  We are still in red light mode and selling here is not advised unless you just have to.

Rice – Off the lows but very quiet.  It will be interesting in a few weeks to see where September 2008 starts trading.  My guess is about 20 cents over July 2007 but we will see.

Natural Gas – Down 15 as I type this.  It has been down 25 so it is obvious that there is not much going on in the way of weather or demand for Natural Gas.  I see a low here and very soon.  Tropic activity may again be very active in the next several days.   

Cattle – Down 25 in a very tightly ranged bound trade today.  Nothing new from us as we are long 100% in the field. 

Dow –   Down 14 as I type this but off the lows and the selling just isn't here.  No sign of a top yet on this bounce and while I expect one, it could come from 200 points higher than where it is.

Cotton – Still sideways and no indications that will change anytime soon.

Friday August 24th-

Corn – After yesterday's reversal, corn was very quiet until the last 15 minutes when it made new lows and finished down about 3 cents.  I don't see a big break from here but it could pull back another 10 to 15 cents.  We are still in store mode suggesting store everything you can for later this year.  Once the crop finds a home, it will take higher prices to shake it lose.   

Wheat – Very quiet and that bodes for higher prices still.  Read our comments from last night.  Demand remains very strong but we are doing a good job of rationing out the shortage.  It may have another push left in it but the reversal down in the new crop yesterday maybe telling us we are very close to a major top.  Speculators...do not be trading this one yet, it will tell us in plenty of time to ride the break.

Beans – Still higher on a lack of selling tied to concerns of damage to the bean crop.  I see no reason to sell it yet. 

Rice – Unchanged with options expiring today.  We pegged the market right at the $10.60 strike which really means nothing but there are some calls that might be exercised.  That could add to selling pressure if it happens. 

Natural Gas – Down 13 in the October right now.  Market has no reason to rally so the push lower can continue.  I do think we are setting up a bull move here and we will want to be buying when the computer can give us a buy recommendation.  With no weather concerns, we could drift lower next week as well.

Cattle – Strong again today with cash beef prices firm.  No changes here as we like being long in the field with no short positions in futures.

Dow –   More and more comfortable feeling about the Dow's rally here.  We are not trading it yet believing there is probably another shoe or two to drop. 

Cotton – Still sideways.

Thursday August 23rd-

Corn – A hook reversal down today establishes a possible short term resistance top.  We need confirmation tomorrow and my level of confidence is not super high but given the current situation, it is possible.  We will be watching beans tomorrow and especially if they trade below today's low.  Corn could pull back 15 to 20 cents easily on fund liquidation. 

Wheat – Well now... Today's action is a classic "bend but didn't break" scenario.   We finished up 9 cents on short covering at the close as traders who had tried to push it down gave up in the last 10 minutes.  I sold my final 20% today ($7.43) as the market ran over $7.50 Based on today's trade it may be time to think about the short side.  BUT NOT THE HECK YET!!!  I can always buy it back in the futures is how I am looking at it but I think this much profit in such a short time requires taking it off the table. Tomorrow will be interesting.

Read our comments from last night.  Anywhere in here you are a safe seller.  The exhaustion in the market is starting to surface and while a sharp run toward $8.00 is still possible, we are starting to see some cash market resistance to this price level.  Do not get too greedy and remember, it is the most bullish at the top of the market.  I think today was the first real taste of rejection for this final leg.  Now that doesn't mean it's the top because all we have is a small hammer head down formation today and that doesn't mean anything unless tomorrow we go below today's low.  Then it means something.  For now, my advice is be very, very cautious.

Beans – If there was a good reason for the grains not to collapse today it was the beans.  They led the complex all day finishing 11 higher.  No sign of a top here and we will wait for more information before trading it.  We still like the long side for now but are watching the weather and if it changes to a more constructive tone, selling pressure could be pretty intense.

Rice – Up 9 to up 5.  This market is on the verge of breaking out but it has been here before with nothing to show for itself.  Let's see what happens near term. 

Natural Gas – A small hook reversal up going into the close.  I like owning Gas down here because it is way oversold and there is still a lot of weather uncertainty.  We could come in on Monday looking at another hurricane so I expect more short covering tomorrow. 

Cattle – Up 150 but still in a sideways market...nothing new for me. 

Dow –   All over the place as both good and bad news hits the market.  Near term choppy longer term, we see it lower.

Cotton – Still sideways.

Wednesday August 22nd-

Corn – A strong day up as demand and weather combine to give us another push higher.  Is the down side limited form here...yes and no.  We are now well off the recent lows.  Almost 40 cents in just 5 days.  Not bad; however, do not get too excited as we see another downward move in the next few weeks to test support.  Longer term we have been telling our subscribers to not be selling and that remains our view; however, if you need to sell corn in the next month or so, this rally may be the one you need to sell on.  I hope you can replace it in the futures because longer term, we need to work higher to hold acres for 2008. 

Wheat – New contract highs today.  I was asked to comment on my statement that there was a green light on sales in this level down to $6.70.  Glad to. 

We said last Wednesday if you were holding over 20% we would be selling but that we were not going to sell the final 20% just yet.  That was a catch up recommendation to make sure you were to the 80% sold level.  I felt there was the chance of new highs but it could be so fast we could have some problems getting a bunch of wheat off.  If you have a problem with selling $6.90 wheat I can't help you much.  Our goal is to beat the average and identify risk and let me tell you, there is risk in here right now with wheat over $7.20.  While I am still holding the final 20% I am watching it on a 30 minute system to see where the final push is.   $7.50 is our next resistance point and I doubt I own my last 20% when we go across that.  Open interest went down on the first rally after the report and it still is not that much higher than where we were at $6.90.  The action looks like a short squeeze and when it's over, there could be nothing but air underneath it.  Also let me remind you July wheat is at $5.90...this is an old crop and short term supply problem and when it ends it will be ugly.  Could it get to $8.00...absolutely...but will it??? 

Was recommending getting to 80% a mistake...depends on if you want to look at it in hind sight or real time.  If I had to do it all over again, knowing what I knew then, I would do the very same thing.  If you are trying to sell at the top...good luck.  When the top comes, the final high price will be on extremely low volume.

Finally, when we give a green light to sell, it is an indication that risk to the longs is high and if you need to sell something or are nervous yourself then you will be OK on the long run selling in this price range.  With that said, the light is still green and I am still holding the final 20%...I wonder if I will be saying that next week this time???   

Beans – Another strong market with rainy weather in the back of peoples mind and good demand on a shorter crop.  We will probably pause in the next few days and look again at all the conditions.  In general, we are still holding the red light out.  It is a longer term situation here and we want to own not be selling just now.

Rice – Strong day with rice up 16 cents on ideas that higher prices in the wheat and corn will reduce acres in rice...well DAH!!!  We have been pretty strong in saying this is a must.  The numbers just don't work as there needs to be a bunch of rice acres added and from our work, we are looking at a couple of bucks to buy acres away from alternatives.  We remain long...holding old crop and futures on any buy backs we needed.  Just a word of caution, we may not be able to break out this time against resistance, but I do think the time for resistance to hold is about gone.  Buy breaks.  

Natural Gas – Well here I have been wrong on the amount of dumping coming from the funds. I am long natural gas with several indicators screaming a low is about to be made.  A move back over $6.00 in September sets up a pretty good bounce near term but it will probably take a hurricane in the gulf to really reverse this one. 

Cattle – Down 70 in a sideways market...nothing new for me. 

Dow –   Looking more and more like a sucker rally.  But I have seen these sucker rallies turn into bull legs.  I still see more fall out and I am not trading it at all sitting 100% cash. 

Cotton – Still sideways.

Tuesday August 21st-

Corn – Wheat push corn higher and it held pretty well.  Corn is still under the influence of fund buying and the perception that the USDA is too high on there yield numbers.  Look for some corrections ahead but longer term, we are headed higher.  A pull back to test lows is also possible first so be careful.

Wheat – Strong move today on demand.  Nothing new for us.  We are about to sell the final 20% and $6.70 is where we will be selling.

Beans – Back off the highs today as rain makes beans is the song being sung.  I still see little risk here and will buy a break. 

Rice – Nothing today and I mean nothing.  Up a whole 1/2 cent.

Natural Gas – Market is stabilizing.  As I said yesterday, this one is down on the hurricane scare being over yes but also on fund liquidation as they raise capital.  That means we are too low given he current situation and when this market gets some bullish traction, there will be no one to sell it down here.  I bought a little today and want to own it more on further breaks. 

Cattle – Another strong day as any day with out the stock market being sharply lower is a good day for cattle. 

Dow –   Another quiet day.  Look for a test of the lows and 50-50 chance of making new lows. 

Cotton – Still sideways.

Monday August 20th-

Corn – Up a little today based on commercial buying.  Weather is less and less of a surprise.  This afternoon's condition report showed improvement in condition as expected this time of year.  Still it is below last years level and I agree with most who feel the USDA is high on their crop numbers.  September's report will be real interesting.  But breaks if you are a spec and hold if you are a farmer.

Wheat – Also a little higher.  Demand is still the main focus.  Has the end user bought enough for now??  Good question.  Chart says maybe.  Still a good place to be selling if you need to.  I am still holding 20% but about ready to cash it in.  $6.70 need to hold.

Beans – Quiet day but up here at night about 4 cents.  Conditions report showed deterioration which is also normal for this report cycle.  I like buying breaks.  Read Friday's report.  We are still short the $8.00 puts here.

Rice – Nothing today.  The market is looking at harvest results which are so far not that great.  Nothing terrible either so here we sit.  Longer term....it must go higher. 

Natural Gas – HUGE DAY DOWN!!!  We came in this morning and Natural Gas collapsed.  This is one the biggest days down I have ever seen as we drop 97 cents.  Dean is missing the Gas areas.  Like there isn't going to be another storm???  DO NOT BE SELLING ANYTHING HERE. 

Cattle – Up 80 as the market still is looking at financials and holding on.  I still see it sideways. 

Dow –   

If you did not read our Friday comments, please read them as it pretty well sums up our outlook and why the market is in trouble.  I am not trading right now as we are in emergency mode trying to get the rice out of the field; however, if I was, I wouldn't be long here for anything except on some day trading buy signals.  I see it lower again as more of the closets get opened up.

Cotton – Nice bounce today.  I see it sideways for now. 

Friday August 17th-

Corn – As I suggested last night, the corn market bounced higher today as the pressure came off the stock market. We finished 7 cents higher.  We are still in a red zone so do not be selling.  Read my comments on the Dow below since the financials will lead the way over the next few weeks.  Yesterday's low should be good support unless all the wheels are coming off of the economy.

Wheat – Up 1 and not so hot compared to the other grains.  We have a green light situation here.  You are safe to sell in this range.

Beans – Up 15 and like the corn, it is a little too low for the situation; however, the funds can still sell a bunch of beans to raise capital so another push down near term is possible.  We will be buying that break for sure. 

Also, please note we sold the August $8.00 Put today to cover our short sales positions.  Click here for Marketing Page and read our comment there.

Rice – I was disappointed in the bounce in rice today.  I don't know why I should be disappointed since it is the same old thing time after time with he end users of rice.  In any event, I see the downside as very limited and the selling conditions are Red which means do not be selling at this level unless you get a great basis and replace with futures.

Natural Gas – Hurricane Dean will have some impact on this market near term.  Looks like a hit in the Gulf now.  We are long here but know all too well not to overstay our welcome.  I will be selling early in the storms gulf path and look for the next one to drive us higher.  Longer term...past September, we want to be short on this rally.

Cattle – Up nicely today with the financial rally.  Still sideways unless the financials really start to tank.

Dow –   Up 233 points today as the Fed lowered the discount window interest rate.  Is this the end to the break...unfortunately, I doubt it.  I give it a 35% chance we are finished going down.  The good news from today's FED action is that they are on top of it and will try to keep money in the system.

OK...a little economics 101...  GDP is what the Fed has to keep its focus on.  GDP is the aggregate of what we sell in he United States.  Now when you buy a shirt for a 20 dollars, that person takes the money and pays wages, then that person buys a hamburger, Mc D buys meat from a wholesaler who takes that money and pays a packer...who then pays a feed lot for the cattle which they fed using the corn which they paid YOU for!!!  Now you go buy pants...get the picture.  This is call VELOCITY of money.  It is how many times the cash in the total US economy turns over from one person to the next to the next and so on.  So, when people don't spend money, the velocity slows down and guess what...the GDP drops and when that happens we have what is called a recession. 

What the FED did this week was put more cash in the system so it could keep pressure off the GDP.  Look at it this way...

TOTAL CASH x VELOCITY = GDP   

So you can hold GDP two ways, get velocity higher by the consumer spending it as fast as they get it...or  the FED can put cash into the system.  That is what happened this week.

The issues behind the current financial crisis is liquidity and it is being multiplied by the real estate bubble bursting in the east and west.  There is no bubble in Texas but we will still feel the affects.  I said months ago we would have a recession by the end of this year or early next.  I am in an all cash position and have been and we called the top in the DOW on August the 8th and 9th.  So now what???

Use any rally to lighten up.  I would be no more than 40% if you can and as I already said, I am out completely. I can see another panic wave but it is a 50-50 proposition.  I just think the bad news isn't over with...maybe not by a long shot.

Cotton – Up 85 and following the financials.

Thursday August 16th-

General Comments  - WOW!!!   OK...It is very important to understand that a market like this is a good one to walk away from if you can.  My ideas are simple.  Today's action with corn down 6, beans down 42, wheat down 9 and rice down 22 had nothing to do with grain fundamentals thy had to do with the sucking sound coming from the financial markets world wide.  Tonight's markets overseas will be important.  If the rally in the US can gain traction in overseas markets tonight, then the grains will find support.  If not, we will work lower near term to fill the cash flow liquidity problem of the markets participants.  Today we saw funds dump like there was no tomorrow.  We may come storming right back tonight and tomorrow.

So without talking about every market tonight here is the scoop.  It is safe to sell wheat here in this range.  Down 20 from here and then I would say hold for a bit other wise it is safe where we are.

IT IS NOT SAFE TO SELL ANYTHING IN THE FOLLOWING MARKETS:

Corn, Soybeans and Rice...  Natural Gas held today and should rally near term as should crude.  Look for a bounce in the Dow tomorrow unless the overnight world markets are sharply lower.  I maybe in Florida, but tonight I will be up trading most of the evening and I will be buying early.  In any event, just keep your head and don' get too worried about this, I do think the Fed will ease or else we will have a recession very soon.

Wednesday August 15th-

Corn – Up 1/2 but as I type this the market is down 3 cent in the overnight trade.  Wheat may have signaled an end to the buying there today and that could help push con into new lows but again, it won't last too long.  It is not safe to be a seller here so store what you can and if you have to sell, be ready to buy it back.  End users can feel pretty good about buying corn here because once the harvest starts and we find a home for the crop, a demand driven bull market is likely.

Wheat – BAD DAY TODAY...Reversal pattern signals possible end to move.  It is very safe to sell here and if you are holding more than 20% of last years crop, I would move it. We will probably sell the final 20% if we can get some confirmation but the thing is, the end users are about finished with what they need to own.

Beans – Down on weather as the market unwinds some of the hot and dry premium.  We could accelerate lower here but not a lot.  I see a risk of 50 cents and that should be about it. 

Rice – Unchanged and very quiet. Could go either way.

Natural Gas – Hook reversal down on profit taking with the storms better defined and no surprise now; however, Dean could be a gulf of Mexico storm crossing Florida and hitting right into the Gas producing area so I doubt we move very much lower from here until a better forecast is known.

Cattle – Up today but no real news.

Dow –   Down 167 points.  The early buyers of the break are now in trouble and we still see more problems ahead.  We will start to own it when we can see a reason.

Tuesday August 14th-

Corn – Down 3 1/2 after starting up 4 on the day.  This may have been on news that a commodity fund has halted withdrawals because the corn broke with the financial markets this morning.  In any event I still see the market sideways to lower with a low coming just before harvest.  The downside risk here is 15 to 20 cents.  The longer term risk is to the upside.

Wheat – Big day up a December rallies 20 cents.  The push higher was based on new cash sales to Egypt.  No sign of THE top.

Beans – Down 15 as there is no weather threat.  Downside risk here is about 40 cents but it will be hard to down there until later in the month.

Rice – Up 4 ½ on a quiet day.  Nothing to do here right now except buy breaks.

Natural Gas – We remain long as the weather forecasts still show the potential of a Gulf storm within the next 10 days.  We are still long here.

Cattle – Quiet as the market factors in demand and feed costs.  I still do not see a major downside move from here.  The risk is pretty well balanced on both sides right now.

Dow –   Down 200 points as the market sees more liquidity problems.  As I said last night and will say again, we have not heard he last problem here.  Look for a bigger correction than anyone was expecting.

Monday August 13th- Updates this week will be shorter unless something big happens...

Corn – Closed lower and near the lows. We were up 4 cents coming into the day's trade but the market just couldn't get over the selling here.  The weather concerns are more for bans but the beans didn't catch fire today even while they were up. Without the beans running higher, it will be hard for the corn to rally.  The computer is still saying be short but we have trimmed some of the major selling here so I think the market will still be led by soybeans near term.  

Wheat – A little higher today but the market is needing more news near term.

Beans – Higher today on dry and hot weather but today was no trend day so the buying was not that powerful.  We are vulnerable to a sell off here if he weather changes any at all.

Rice – Up 2 to up 6.  Nothing happening here; however, first yield reports while good are not a big as expected here in Texas.  It will be another two weeks to see what yields are really like.

Natural Gas – A he day up turned into a day for profit taking and the bulls couldn’t defend the price so we ended with a hook reversal down…at least it is right now with 30 minutes to go.  The tropics are on the verge of “exploding systems” according to some meteorologists.  If that is true, a break here should be bought.  We will lighten up a bit and see where we can buy this one back.  

Cattle – Up 42 with cash business holding steady with boxed beef prices firm.

Dow – Up 77 with 2 hours to go.  I don’t have a clue but I doubt the last bad news has been received on the mortgage front.

Cotton – Down 24 and checking support at 60. 

Friday August 10th-

Corn – Up 1...The USDA report was bearish but corn shook it off in anticipation of a weather weekend forecast that seemed hotter at the time.  The USDA report raised demand and there are many traders talking about the odds the crop will get smaller as it did last year.  All in all, the market is looking for direction and the lows we have made should hold into the end of August but a test of those levels is still very possible.  Store everything you can!!!

Wheat – The report was bullish but the market looked at it for 10 seconds and that was it.  We closed about 6 cents lower and this confirms the reversal from Thursday.  Look for the market lower near term.

Beans – Here the report was bullish but the market closed lower...what gives???   Here we can say the wetter weather for the bean belt hurt prices.  While corn rallied on demand news, beans were lower on supply news.  Nothing new for me here, I still see it higher longer term but the weather market of 2007 is not over yet and so we will be drug around from forecast to forecast. 

Rice – The USDA raised the long-grain carryover by 2 million cwts but the market didn't react to it at all.  That number is what we expected as the USDA always adds to the supply in August for some reason.  Anyway, the market is still sideways and still setup for a move later this year or early next but the downside is limited and should be used to add to positions. 

Natural Gas – Another strong day as the short covering continues.  Ideas that a hurricane in the Caribbean fueled some buying.  We will see if that idea hold into Monday.  We remain long with an upside objective of over $7.00

Cattle – Down 25 with all the volatility in the financials, there is some spill over selling in this market.

Dow – WOW...Another volatile day ending down just 30 points.  Look for more of the same as a flight to quality and reprising risk continues.  Frankly, I can see it either direction from here so be comfortable. 

Cotton – Down 117 on what I thought was good looking USDA report.  Demand still stinks so we may need to work lower to find where the support is. 

Thursday August 9th-

Corn – Just as we warned, the forecasts are getting wetter.  This is a pattern we have seen over and over again this summer.  The models are wrong on their longer term analysis and again the market is going to run back to support.  Down 9 today and they could stay weak on weather.

The next issue is the USDA report tomorrow.  We will have analysis here in the morning but most people believe the yield will be higher than the last report.  151.5 is the current trade guess. 

Wheat – Reversal day as the market saw some huge profit taking at the close of trading.  We will look at the numbers tomorrow but today is a major warning.

Beans – Unchanged today and that is saying something in this market.  The report tomorrow may support more upside if the weather is not a major factor.

Rice – Down 9 cent today as once again we fall to check support.  It is only a matter of time but it could be weeks before we start to work higher.  Also, tomorrow’s report may be bearish.  I can see them raising the carryover.

Natural Gas – The injection number was bullish today for a change.  The funds are big shorts here and with a couple of the weather models forecasting a hurricane in 11 days, it will be hard for this one not to work higher.  We are long and will remain that way.

Cattle – Down 90 and probably more on the financial situation than anything else.

Dow – We are down 300 as I type this.  Look for lower ahead.

Cotton – We were down 110 today going into the close.  It is sideways but tomorrow’s report will shape the trend in the days ahead.  Technically I see it sideways.

 Wednesday August 8th-

General Comment -  A couple of things.  First, my life has partially returned to normal after three weeks of off and on again combining corn.  For you guys up north, we are through with our corn crop and it came in above normal but we cut it in the mud.  This is why my updates have been later than normal. 

Second, next week I will be in Florida.  This time I am going for computer software training and am really looking forward to it.  This is going to be on software we use to trade and we will be using some of it on this site.  Also, in the months ahead an all new website format is coming and it will have some new features as well.  We have begun the process of putting it all together and it will have a totally new look.  That is what's going on behind the scenes right now.

Corn – More concern for the corn drying down too fast, areas that need rain to finish are too dry and beans are possibly going to get hurt, rallied the market again today.  If you will remember, we have had two major strikes against us.  We are now driving higher for strike 3.  It is too early to tell if we can push sharply higher next week but this rally is a selling opportunity so get ready.  Weather forecasts are easing off the heat again but there remains uncertainty.  What I know is that if we come in tomorrow and the forecasts have totally flipped, it will be strike 3 and we will not have a chance to sell anything at these levels.  On the other hand, December back to $3.70 remains in site if the question on weather can continue. 

This Friday's report will probably increase yield even though crop conditions have plunged since early in the season.  A surprise to the upside remains possible but we have rallied back 30 cents already so a major rally from here is not likely before another test of the lows.  One possible trade is to sell the $3.70 call in October which is based on the December futures price.

Wheat – Up 16 and into new highs.  No sign of a top but here is the deal.  This is a demand driven rally based on supply fears.  PB is at 78% which says that a top could be getting close.  It still could come well over $7.00 but timing is now everything.  Be prepared for a top here in the next month as the demand buyers get covered and the ones left holding the bag will just be left holding.  We have 20% left to sell and we will pull the trigger soon.

Beans – Up 14 with a close over the 9 week moving average.  Resistance is another 20 cents from here and then the market will need damage to propel it higher from the $9.00 mark.  This is strike two coming for beans but it is not as certain as strike 3 for corn. 

Rice – Unchanged to down 1.  Still choppy with no actual trend underway.  We will buy breaks.

Natural Gas – 5 higher today but still under the 21 day moving average.  There is no tropical weather patterns to hang our hats on yet but over the next week I expect the first real hurricane scare to come to the surface.

Cattle – Down 27 but with no real push in any direction.  We are not trading here believing no major trend will develop until later this year.

Dow – Up 153 as the market continues to shake off concerns of a slowing economy and and a consumer who is worn out.  This rally should be sold but it may not be over just yet.

Cotton –Up 50 and still working sideways on the short term indicators.

Tuesday August 7th-

Corn – A strong day today as the market continues its early August rally.  Will this hold??   I doubt it...at least not for more than a couple of weeks and maybe even shorter than that.  Even so, there is no reason to add to sales tonight but I think if we can bounce back above the $3.70 level in December I will be selling a little more.  This weeks S&D report is expected to show a slight increase in yield potential but the crop condition report may keep that fro happening.  Minnesota is in trouble but rain is on the way.  There is other areas that can get in trouble so I think there is enough condition worries to allow for this bounce to continue a few days.  After that, look for a break to own long term.  Here is what I wrote this morning and if you didn't see it, take a look and think about where we are in the big picture.

In a year where the demand is going to be so strong, we want to see that "demand" level hold and that right now is the area between $3.25 and $3.30 in the December.  The question to have in the back of your mind remains, "what will the corn acres be next year given the current price?"  December '08 corn is at $3.90 which is 50 cents more than the current level of '07 Dec corn but with beans in position to be well over $8.00, the debate will rage.  Of course that is next year but this whole situation we find ourselves in with corn is still a 5 year market condition and the odds of corn going much lower than $3.20 is slim.

With that said and looking at the crop conditions, the outside markets and the weather, this rally needs to be sold so get ready.  Then we will be talking about the next big move which I see as higher but not until the supply question is totally resolved which means a couple of months.

Wheat – Down 2 as we hold value.  Looks higher still but we are looking hard for a possible top. 

Beans – Higher as the beans are still in a vulnerable position.  Rain is on the way over the next 48 hours but the market doesn't seem to care with the crop conditions getting worse every week.  We want to sell a bounce here when the time is right but with the USDA report this week and the weather helping a bit, we can rally a little more. 

Rice – Higher by 5 to 6 but off the days highs.  We can continue to move in a choppy fashion here with support at $10.60 to $10.70 in the November. 

Natural Gas – We traded over the 21 day moving average most of the day but closed near the lows and unable to close above the average.  Today's high is now major resistance and where the market needs to trade to turn this one up. 

Cattle – Sharp day down as the market tests support.  We will wait for more technical information here before saying anything different.  The market is still in a positive setup but the PB is nearing 50% which would indicate more weakness and a sideways trend. 

Dow – Up 35 with the new from the FED greeted with nothing but arguments.  That would be a positive sign for stocks as when the market can't agree, the bulls usually win in on the floor. 

Cotton –Up 110 yesterday, down 107 today.  That would be a picture of sideways heading into the USDA report. 

Monday August 6th-

Corn – Down a little today but that is after we were 10 lower early in the session.  After the close the crop condition came in at 56% G/Ex which is 2 points lower than last week but many think the ratings will be higher next week with the rains that are coming this week.  As for me, the market action again says the sellers are not active below the $3.20 level in September.  I am not buying it here as were still have some risk but again, the supply side market is winding down and the is plenty of demand.  We are storing everything we can.

Wheat – Strong day as the market is in the demand phase.  No changes in our position.  80% sold and holding on to the final 20% to sell on this move. 

Beans – Still in the supply side as is corn but there is more weather premium in the beans so they could work lower against the corn near term. 

Rice – Up a few after being 12 lower earlier.  Nothing new from us.  There is some risk here but the major risk is on being short.  Again, the time is not right for a move to buy in acres for next year.  That is coming.

Natural Gas – Higher with a hook reversal up.  We need follow through tomorrow. 

Cattle – Nothing new here.  Down a little but the market is looking for direction. 

Dow – Up 280 points after being down 280 points on Friday.  We could bounce from here quit a bit.

Cotton – Down 79 and building a sideways chart formation.

Sunday August 5th-

Corn – We finished up 1 to 3 on Friday.  There is no real news so we are just in that mode of sellers be ware.  Crop conditions could be a little lower on Monday but all in all this market remains firmly in the supply driven side of the equation.  The supply may not be as big as some had hoped but it still is large and a major move higher is unlikely without the beans catching fire.

Wheat – Up 8 as the market tests the highs.  It could still work higher.

Beans – Up 7 cents as concern on crop supply rises.

Rice – Down 9.  I still think it is a little early for this one to take off but then corn took off early when they had similar looking fundamentals.  We remain long but not with everything.

Natural Gas – Lower all day but turned an finished higher.  We bought more gas today as all of our indicators say the sellers are done.

Cattle – Up 25 and sideways right now.

Dow – As I said Thursday, we have not made the low.  Down 280 points and tomorrow will be WILD!!!

Cotton – We were up 27 and holding.  I expect it will take something new in the S&D report to push us higher.

Thursday August 2nd- This one is short and sweet s the markets do nothing…

Corn – Up 5 today.   Still nothing to say different than our latest comments.  We look for a little strength before the end of August.

Wheat – Up 7 as the market tests resistance.  Hard to call but the next week could hold the key.

Beans – Market closed 5 higher today with no new news to drive the market either direction.

Rice – Down 1 to 2.  Nothing here to report either. 

Natural Gas – Lower on the injection number but who doesn’t know we have a record inventory situation.  That is old news and the shorts here are huge specs so when they run for cover, they will not find much.  We could be looking at a huge day up in the next two weeks.

Cattle – Down 70.  No comments tonight.

Dow – Up 100 today as the market has found short term support.  I doubt we have made the low.

Cotton – We were up 34 and no real news.

Wednesday August 1st-

Note**   Due to communication problems last night I was unable to update this.  You didn’t miss anything as the only surprise was rice.  We should be able to update late tomorrow and Friday. 

Corn – Down 6 during the day session and as I type this we are up 6 in the overnight session.  Nothing has changed or us, we have about two weeks to rally this one back and we want to sell it on this rally.

Wheat – Up 8 today as we may have found support.  The battle is on.

Beans – We were down 7 today but now we are up 5 in the overnight session.  I am looking for a bounce to sell.

Rice – The market was up 15 after being up 14 yesterday.   At one time we were up 40 cents today.  We remain long but not with everything we want.  Today may have been some funds covering shorts but in any event they were buyers.  We will see what the open interest did in the morning. 

Natural Gas – A little higher today.  I still like the long side and will buy more on a break.

Cattle – Down 57 and still range bound.

Dow – Up 150 today.  Look for more of a bounce.

Cotton – Down 65 and also looking for more news.