Thursday December 30th - Last on this year

General Comment - We went out on a a higher note but once again it doesn't mean anything.  Next week we will get back to normal and the market will have more things to consider as we get new USDA numbers in the second week of the year.  

Rice -  The sell off earlier this week continues to hold but today we did rally from the  a lower day to close higher.  Can we follow through next week?  It will take a close over $7.53 to negate the damage done to the chart this week and I think the odds still favor the position that we are in a sideways market.  Longer term, we need to see more demand for US rice to confirm the shortage of world supplies. 

One more thing...Tuesday's big sell off was said to be longs getting out of the market.  Open interest actually went up on the sell off so this was bogus information.  What happened was that some big longs wanted to roll into March and sold the Jan into stops and then bought back their positions in March.  This makes total since.  We will get the COT report on Monday and it will be interesting to see just how many small specs left the market on Tuesday.  My guess is a few and that on the break, commercials were buyers.  If that is true, the market hasn't really told us anything except we are probable going sideways for a while.

Yesterday, the market saw more rolling into March with a net 208 contract decline for January while a net 188 were being added in the March.  A total of 1300 contracts were trades which is pretty good size.  March only had 55 trades on the day which is below average so there was some big spread trading going on.  This may mean that the pressure of the deliveries is over and we will get back to price not time determining the price. 

Wednesday December 29th - (Sorry, I didn't hit the post button...DUH!!!)

General Comment - Markets worked lower again today with Corn selling off the most.  Again, it doesn't mean anything yet!!!  If we take out $2.01, then it might be very interesting.  In wheat, we sold down to our $3.02 price so we went long here again.  It looks like wheat is trying to turn higher but $3.00 needs to hold.  Tomorrow should be dead but then again, that is when the market moves the most.  I expect a two sided day with a few swings in there to make it interesting.

Rice -  Today's action is not confirmation of yesterday's sell signal.  In fact it was a do nothing day.  $7.23 needs to hold as it is becoming a major number on the charts.  I wouldn't be surprised if we don't try to test that price level.

Tuesday December 28th -

General Comment - Most of the markets were on the defensive again all day with rice sharply lower and I'll deal with that one below.  The rest of the grains were slow with wheat rallying on a last minute buy order of over 500 contracts with no selling to be found.  That will probably change tomorrow as I would expect the market to test buying support in most markets.  Volume should get even tighter tomorrow as many traders will make it the last one of the year.

Rice -  The market went to almost limit down on long liquidation today before stabilizing in the middle of the daily range.  Why the sell off?  Some were talking about the open interest levels being so high for small speculators who were long going into today.  According to the COT report, there were about 730 net longs in the small spec position for rice.  We will get the open interest report in a few hours and see what actually happened there.  In my opinion, even 800 contracts is not enough to be concerned about especially if half of them are buy back positions from early sales.  These are not weak hands holding the longs.  My guess is this is not the main reason for the sell off. 

There was also some talk today that the market was sharply lower because the Iraqi tender was in trouble.  After the close it was reported that the selling was not commercial based and commercials were buyers at the lows.  This would indicate that the Iraq issue was not the main reason for the sell off but who really knows.  This would not be the first time a commercial hid in the market as a small spec but I doubt it's the case this time.  Another reason could be the market was void of participants to absorb the selling and the market shouldn't be where it is tonight.  If your long, you would agree with that statement and if your short, you would violently disagree.

Here is the bottom-line.  The market was down today because the sellers were more aggressive than the buyers.  Even so, the market closed in the middle of its trading range which means the buyers were there with the market down 49 cents.  The damage was done in some of the technicals we use.  Our system turned down today and gave sell signals in two major categories; however, the market is exactly where it should be if we are holding in a sideways trend right now.  Remember, in a sideways market, you sell buy signals and buy sell signals.  In addition, the chart supports a sideways movement currently with a fairly wide range.

Tomorrow will be very important as we need to see further selling to confirm the change in direction.  I have been very cautious about the market because the fact is we need to see some more demand in the US market.  That is what it will take to confirm the shortage in the world supply will actually have an affect on the bearish fundamentals in the US.  For now, we'll take the approach that the market is sideways and should be bought at lower levels.  Again, this is buy back positions for rice already sold.  Specs should stay clear for now as we may see a test of 30 to 40 cents lower than current levels even if the market is in a sideways range.  I'll be buying on such a break as longer term, I think the odds favor more US rice moving into the world market.  Let's hope or it is going to be a very long year.... 

Monday December 27th -

General Comment - Wheat and soybeans both had some movement today with light volume.  Wheat sold off hard after taking out yesterday's high but was able to come back part of the way as beans and corn both turned higher.  Looks like some big traders may want to see if they can't push the markets around.  We'll see if they can do it two days in a row.  I look for both side trading near term.

Thursday December 23rd -

General Comment - Markets moved higher in quiet trade.  Wheat gained on corn and the corn market is once again testing the $2.08 to $2.10 resistance point.  I look for the market to remain quiet through next week.  

Wednesday December 22nd -

General Comment - Another do nothing day.  Wheat rallied a little more on corn opening up the spread but the rest of the grain floor was very slow.  Nothing new to report anywhere and I expect more of the same tomorrow.  Tomorrow the markets close at noon and are closed on Friday.   I might be able to write tomorrow's comments right now.  A ditto of today's first line. 

Tuesday December 21st - IT'S BEGINNING TO LOOK A LOT LIKE CHRISTMAS!!!

General Comment - It was very slow here today.  In fact, at 1:10 PM going into the last 5 minutes of trade, there was no contract up or down more than 1 cent on the entire grain floor and that includes rice.  Now that is slow.  The only real move today worth talking about was Wheat which came back after an early morning sell off.  Looks like some pent up buying on breaks in this one but again, its that time of year and best not to make any major decisions on the trading action of the next few days. 

I think traders are ready for the holiday and many have probably balanced the books and taken off for the rest of the year.  That doesn't mean we won't have some moments of excitement in the holiday period but most of the time will be like watching a dog sleep in an empty room.  (Boy, the clichés are getting hard to come up with.)   Of coarse we never sleep and will still be watching but at a distance.  This page will be updated everyday (current plan) over the holidays but unless something big happens, it will be short and sweet.  Like today!!

Monday December 20th -

Corn - The market has started higher this week with the other grains but when the wheat and beans sold off, it was corn that stood like a rock.  PB rose to 48% tonight which should be an area of resistance. 

Soybeans - Well off of the highs but not down on the day.  The market hit its highs in the first few minutes and spent the rest of the day selling off until the close when it cam back and closed marginally higher.  We might see more strength here IF we can get more bullish news. 

Wheat -  The funds have started to come out of record short positions but they have a very long way to go.  We sold off from the early highs giving the shorts some feel good action as every time we rally we find all kinds of selling.  A close over today's close in the next two days is a bullish sign.  I look for the market now to find its first level of support which may be at the $3.01 to $3.03 level in March before once again approaching the $3.10 level.  We are short put options right now and may get a little long futures on another pull back to our buying zone mentioned above.   

Rice -  More reports that the price of rice will stay up over the next several months and signs of more strength in Thailand prices has the market approaching its recent highs.  We tested those highs early and backed off when the other grains couldn't hold their major advances on the day.  We bought a little today on the mid-day break but not enough to get back to where we want to be if this market changes price plateaus.  That could take us to over $8.00 in the March.  The next few days may see some consolidation in today's range.   

Friday December 17th -

Corn - Market was lower all day but had to rally when Wheat took off.  There is no reason to believe we can't test the $2.10 level in March in the days ahead and if we do, we will lock in basis contracts.  PB is at 40% tonight.

Soybeans - Closed 10 cents off of its lows after being lower all day.  Short covering across the grain floor brought the beans back up.  PB is at 51% so there is room to roam in either direction.  Next week could see lower volume but more price movement.  Seems to work that way lately.

Wheat -  Forget what I said last night.  Today Wheat took off and for the first time in many weeks, closed near its high after a solid move higher.  In the last few months, every day where we have rallied into the end of the say has seen the market sell off big time in the last 5 minutes.  Today wasn't the case as the market actually broke through the resistance level of $3.04 in the last 5 minutes.  News of possible conditions to damage some of the wheat without snow cover may start the short covering we have been waiting for.  We sold some more puts today taking another shot at the market near term.  We also bought the wheat corn spread.  Both look profitable tonight but what about Monday night?  Time will tell. 

Rice -  Reports that Thailand continues to suffer from drought and concern for the exportable inventory in Asia continuing to decline should keep this market where it is.  Today's bounce was a good sign as it put PB at 51% and the charts continue to look healthy.  $7.63 in March is resistance near term and we sit just 5 cents from that tonight.  Next week will be interesting.  We dropped from 80% back to 50-60% on our buy back.  Our basis was so strong and even our sales this week were at a profit so we have plenty of room in our position to give the market more room as well.

Thursday December 16th -

Corn - The market remains unable to advance and may again test recent lows.  We are chewing up our inventory at a good pace but there is so much to chew, we should be sideways for a few months.  There is no reason to trade this right now unless your in the cash side.  We have locked in very strong basis contracts and are waiting to price them.  No real hurry right now.

Soybeans - Nothing to talk about here either.  We are out looking for news from Brazil one way of the other. 

Wheat -  This market proved today it can go down a lot easier than it can go up.  We think the markets sideways but wouldn't be surprised to see the market test and take out the contract lows over the next few weeks.  The wheat/corn spread may narrow further in the weeks ahead. 

Rice -  Nothing here today either.  I can see us test $7.20 in March near-term.  I would expect the bullish fundamentals in the world to be very slow in affecting the US market but it should keep a support tone under the market near-term as well.  PB is still under 50% so the market remains defensive right now. 

I might point out that our sales and export pace is well behind this time last year but that is to be expected without the early season exports to Brazil in '04 like we had in '03.  We are also behind in our exports to Mexico but that should correct itself in time.  One thing that does concern me is Cuba.  The Federal government has been trying to stop sales there and it is just plain wrong.  It will certainly have an affect on the rice market if the government does not return to its own stated policies.

Tuesday December 14th -

Corn - The technical bounce continues as short covering remains the feature.  As stated earlier, we could see this bounce run to $2.10 or $2.12.  We will price in some basis contracts at this level.

Soybeans - Market reversed early pressure to close higher.  No real major selling just yet so we may be able to run a little higher near term.

Wheat -  Early selling pressure fell apart and the market rallied with a hook reversal up.  We need follow through buying to confirm a near term low.  Recently, follow through buying has been non-evident so tomorrow will be interesting.  Remember, the funds are short the house here including the kitchen sink and if they start to come out and the commercials hold their positions, we could bounce 20 cents.

Rice -  WMP up 6 cents and the market reversed after starting off lower.  The close is back over the $7.23 level and that sets us up for a test of resistance just as we mentioned last night.  Just like the wheat, tomorrow will be interesting.  We are back to 60% long after selling some a little higher on the day.  We will see where this rally leads and on a reversal back down, probably lower our risk. 

Monday December 13th -

Corn - Today's bounce was viewed as technical in nature.  A review of the COT report has the funds short 106,000 contracts which is about 20,000 shy of the largest position I have ever seen them in.  This bounce could take us back to $2.10 in March where we want to price in some corn for the JFM time period.  PB is at 38% with room to bounce without changing the overall direction of the market.

Soybeans - Funds put on big short positions last week and came flying out of many of those today.  The overall trend is still down but PB remains positive at 56%.  It would help to get some bullish news out of Brazil. 

Wheat -  Even when wheat bounces it looks bad.  We close up 2 3/4 but 3 1/4 off of the high.  So again, wheat looks bad with a PB of 33%, the worst on the grain floor.  Looks to me like the wheat corn spread may need to come in a little more.  The record short position of the funds in wheat could spark a rally but they have a lot of profit and it is going to take something fairly bullish to get this market in the other direction.  We have come out of all positions here waiting for a better trading signal. 

Rice -  Today's close was not good.  First, we closed under our original buy point of $7.23 and second, we closed at the low end of the range making new lows.  This indicates the sellers are in control and there maybe more selling to go.  We have sold cash and bought back positions to lock in basis.  There are two major fundamental situations working right now.  The bearish US market and the bullish World Price situation.  Right now, the large carryover in the US market is winning the battle.  There is also a concern of large farmers sales the last two weeks of the year and the first two weeks on 2005.  Given all of this, the market may indeed stay under pressure.  With today's trade, our PB turned negative at 46% and tells us to lift half of our buy back hedge.  If we are going sideways, look for the market to test $7.00.  If we turn higher tomorrow with a reversal, we may head back to find the resistance point. 

I had hoped to get my rice special out over the weekend but need to wait for a couple more days on some additional information.  I'm shooting for Wednesday.

Friday December 10th -

Corn - The report today was a big nothing so we returned to what has been working and that is a short position.  Selling wasn't big but the buying was less and we closed lower.  Long-term, the market should stay sideways to lower but no big moves one way or the other.  The huge short position by specs needs to be dealt with but that could be over the next 6 weeks.

Soybeans - The traders favorite.  Most traders are afraid to be short beans down at this price level with the Brazilian crop a complete unknown right now.  One weather scare could catapult beans sharply higher.  The report today was a nothing but some traders said it was bullish thereby supporting there current long position.  I don't see anything here for a while unless we do hear something out of Brazil.

Wheat -  The only crop where the carryover was cut and yet it was in the most trouble today with a sell off to contract lows.  The wheat/corn spread is also in trouble with today's close.  Traders are bearish wheat because of the world supply and the US crop outlook.  We may see wheat head toward the $2.60 level is we are going to test long-term wheat/corn spread lows of 50 cents; however, there is also a chance we are going to see the US crop start to look a little worse in the weeks ahead.  It is a tough call so we will step aside with the action of this market today and a report that just wasn't bearish.

Rice -  The report was a nothing today with no changes.  The market sold off with prices a little weaker in Thailand and the Iraqi tender results coming out in the next few days.  The market still looks sideways to higher but could turn back down if we see more weakness in overseas prices.

I will address rice in more detail over the weekend with a special report.  We have a market that could easily go either way and all factors should be looked at closely.  I understand that the USDA boys were bearish in their presentation in New Orleans.  Once again proving, the "Outlook Conference should be called the "Lookout Conference".   Just kidding...!!!  Anyway, I wasn't there so I can't really respond to what they said, what I can do is lay out the market conditions and tell you why we could trade lower or higher from here and that there is no ragging bull market close in rice. 

Dollar - Bounce continues.  We remain short the Euro and long the dollar but will take it off very soon as this is only a short term trade. 

Thursday December 9th -

General Comments - All the action in the market today was squaring in front of the report tomorrow morning.  We expect the carry-over higher in Corn, Soybeans and Rice.  It should be lower in wheat.   Today's action was friendly to the market and with the USDA report Friday, the market has an over supply of fund shorts in it right now.  I don't expect a surprise here but big crops get bigger so we may see more supply listed.  We will be watching the demand side of the equation very hard.  We will prepare a full update of the numbers over the weekend.

Wednesday December 8th -

Corn - Today's action was friendly to the market and with the USDA report Friday, the market has an over supply of fund shorts in it right now.  I don't expect a surprise here but big crops get bigger so we may see more supply listed.  We will be watching the demand side of the equation very hard. 

Soybeans - Marker rallied today and put in a nice session for the longs but the report of Friday is the big thing so there is nothing to say until we have the USDA numbers.

Wheat -  Another market dealing with huge short position held by funds who need more bearish news.  So many of the current shorts have big profits and are so bearish, they may need some real convincing to believe the market has priced in the current fundamentals.  Friday's report will be the key to near term direction.

Rice -  Not much reaction to the WMP increase as there is still a ready supply of rice available with the current fundamentals.  Friday we get the USDA numbers and we should hear about the Iraqi tender over the weekend or Monday.  For now we will hold current positions believing longer term the market may rally toward the $8.00 mark.   As stated before, I am not a raging bull here and specs should be careful. 

Tuesday December 7th -

Corn - The first rally in the sideways market is probably over with the sell off today.  Unfortunately, the market started lower and never gave us a chance to lock in our basis contracts.  For now, we will stay where we are as we could see end of year sales push the market into new lows but we don't see a major leg down from here.  Market should remain sideways.

Soybeans - As I explained last night, the tilt is still down and the market is looking sluggish with no real news to trade.  We do not have a reason to trade so we won't.

Wheat -  The sell off today was expected as we broke back to test support.  I'm not sure we found it but the funds are huge sellers and are now believed to be short over 40,000 contracts.  Interesting that this is the largest number I've seen and yet the market has not made new lows.  That is a form of divergence and can occur at major lows.  Friday's report may be needed to get the buy the rumor sell the fact into place.  I sold the March $3.00 put today on the close and will hold that position for now. 

Rice -  WMP up 24 cents.  See I told you!!!  Yep, two streak dinners in the bank.  And yes, futures were down 18 cents as some longs took profits, but this break was to our buy window and WMP up might give us some help.  We will get to 80% tomorrow and hold that until we make new highs.  Remember, I'm not wildly bullish but this is a buy back of cash rice sold so we are covering our basis and want to be open to price fluctuation.  If you are long the market at higher levels and it's a spec position, you might want to lighten up if we close below today's low.  The market might be telling us some bad news on the Iraq tender. 

Dollar - We still would stay out of short positions right now as the market makes a bottom near term.  Longer term, it might not be over but the market need to catch its breath.

Dow - A break under 10,400 is bearish near-term. 

Monday December 6th -

Corn - PB is back to 50% and may rise a bit more as we set the upside barrier to our sideways market.  We will lock in basis contracts for January on this move.  Our daily phone update has details.  Long-term we see the market going no where until the demand starts to increase.  That could happen in this weeks report but it's not that likely.

Soybeans - Sideways for now with all eyes on Brazil.  The COT shows heavy short positions so that may have something to do with the current bounce.  There seems to be no major change in fundamentals and the Tilt is still for lower prices. 

Wheat -  The market is setup to test $3.00 again in March.  Open interest has not changed enough to offer shorts in the market any rest.  I expect a move toward the$3.10 level again and if we get any kind of bullish news in the report this week, things could get very interesting. 

Rice -  WMP tomorrow will be the focus of some traders.  Others don't give a dang, but overseas action remain firm.  There was a Holiday in Thailand today so not much news to look at.  It will be interesting to see what happens in their trade tomorrow (actually tonight our time).  I look for WMP higher tomorrow as we now know there are confirmed sales at higher levels.  The futures market remains a little overbought with our buy window now for $7.39 to $7.45.  If there is no pull back and we run up 20 cents from here, I'll probably take off some of our longs to drop back to a lower percentage through Christmas.  We will talk more specifics on the phone update for our members.

Dollar - We SHOUTED in capital letters to cover shorts in the dollar today on the open and if you did you should send me a bonus as the market rallied today.  PB jumped from 13 to 21 % in today's action.  We will resell the dollar when we get a sell signal.  Odds favor a correction near term before going lower; however, one thing to remember, if the dollar makes new lows tomorrow or Wednesday, then the odds favor a blow off expansion bear move.  We sold the open on the FOREX at 13440 and want a stop at 13433.  This is fun...well, so far anyway!!!  PB is still too high and the strength index is supper high at over 60%.  That is a huge number for the strength index.

Friday December 3rd -

Corn - A nice rally today as the market shook off some of the bearish technicals and short covering entered the market.  Trading was considered light and there is really no new fundamentals.  In general, I see the market sideways for several weeks and maybe into March of 2005.  We may see some accordion trading action which allows for the March contract to trade below $2.00 but in general, we are moving from a supply market to a demand market and the demand base is very large.  Next week we may see a little more up before we consolidate for a longer period of time. 

Soybeans - I thought we might go a little lower before we consolidate and we still may but today's action could be the first real indication that we will consolidate for a while in this price range.  PB didn't change in today's move but 1% so until we see more buying there is no reason to be long here.  That can change very fast but will it?

Wheat -  It has been a long time since we have seen wheat close up 8 cents.  We got buy signals early this morning and then again as we closed over $3.04.  $3.10 is resistance near term in the March.  The COT report tonight was a shocker for me.  The funds are back to a record short position as of Tuesday night which means we could see more upside than I have been thinking.  The specs have been selling on the drop but not as much as the funds who are now toe to toe with the commercials, which is a better setup for the bulls to say the least.  Odds favor a continued rally but we might see one sell off to test for support.

Rice -  All I can say is read last nights comments.  Nothing has changed except I corrected my own mistake.  I said that the locals don't get to see the order flow and of course that's wrong.  I meant, we don't get to see it but they do and they will be sellers at higher levels as they continue to back up on their offers.  Just as they did today.  Today's close now sets the market up for a correction next week but when?  My guess is that the Tuesday WMP will be higher.  In fact, I have a couple of steak bets on this one.  (None with the WMP committee however.)  Anyway, I look for it higher and we may see a sell the rumor buy the fact.  We bought the break today and are recommending 70% long positions on buy backs (if you have sold cash rice).  If your not there, it's going to be hard to bite the bullet with the market over bought.  PB is 68% but we have some short term indicators that are very over bought.  Caution at this level is advised.   Pure Spec traders who are long in the market, may want to take some profits 10 to 15 higher if we can get there on Monday or Tuesday. 

Natural Gas - We have a $6.20 target on this move.  PB is at 41% with room to the downside.  We might rally at some point to check the resistance line but with no real cold weather in the forecast, we might see the market stay under pressure.  (Pardon the pun.)

Dollar - COVER ALL SHORTS MONDAY MORNING OR SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE FX IF YOU CAN.  PB is at an all time record low of 13%.  I'm not saying to go long, but we have been short here for months and its time to cover shorts RIGHT NOW. 

Thursday December 2nd -

Corn - A small reversal today could indicate a time of consolidation a head.  March should find support at $2.00 but even so, this market is not going anywhere near term.  Tomorrow may be very slow.

Soybeans - We have been talking about the PB calculation still higher in beans than the rest of the grains, except for rice.  Today's break moved the number down to 38% from 43% last night.  I said last night a move to 35% would indicate the market down another 12 cents and we got almost 8 cents of that today.  We are getting close to a level of support which should allow the market to consolidate.  It is going to take something new out of Brazil or a pickup in demand to take this one higher any time soon.

Wheat -  Another day where the locals pushed the market lower.  As I have pointed out here before, it pretty obvious when the market rallies every day in the last minute.  Today is the same.  We tried to go higher as the locals get some selling power, they then sell the market pushing it lower and getting short.  Then they cover at the close.  This has worked very well for the "old men" of the grain floor and there is no reason to stop until they lose money on the short side.  If corn starts to consolidate, wheat will have a change in dynamics that could stop the current bleeding.  In any event, a close over $3.04 in March is need to tilt this market up for a test of the down-trend.   

Rice -  Another up day as those needing to buy can't catch the market.  There is an old adage that says, if you catch it, you won't be happy with the result.  By catching we refer to putting in an order below the market (in an uptrend like this one) and then not getting filled.  Let me introduce you to the "market order".  That is the only way to catch a market in a fast moving trend and right now that is what we have.  You might say that the market should pull back and I won't argue but remember, in a fast moving market the locals are catching it too.  They get to see the order flow and do not want to be selling unless its much higher.  Their goal right now is to ride the trend not provide you with liquidity.  That comes once we get where its going and there is some help from other market participants. 

I see little resistance up to $7.85.  The market is not over bought with a 65% PB and an expanding strength index which also points out there is no reason to sell right now.  It doesn't really matter if the market is going up on Asian concerns or the Iraqi tender, right now what matters is that the sellers are not being aggressive and the buyers are.  That points to a strong market.  As for us, we are already long and I'll add on a break.  Tonight's buy back window is still in the $7.35 to $7.40 range but I doubt I get a chance at that tomorrow.  If I do....I may not be "very happy with the result."  At some point the market will consolidate and I'll feel better about a market order. 

Wednesday December 1st -

Corn - Still inching toward our $2.00 target in March.  The market tried to go higher early but selling came in and the market resumed its down trend.  We see no reason to own this one and have been out for some time.  Interesting note, basis is firming a bit more and the LDP is not making new lows with the market.  Another indication of firm basis.  PB is at 38% which is not that low so there is room to move lower. 

Soybeans - We have been talking about the PB calculation still higher in beans than the rest of the grains, except for rice.  Today's break moved the number down to 43% as compared to 47%.  As I said last night, "a gradual down move remains likely over the next few weeks but it could change in an instant if something in the world fundamentals change."  Look for the PB calculation to head toward the 35% level at least which translated into price is around 12 cents lower.

Wheat -  Well, we keep trying but again there is no winner here.  Luckily, we decided not to trade wheat until it got over $3.04 which remains the main buy signal on the chart.  Of course, that never happened and the market sold off again.  I got a call today wondering if the wheat market isn't being fixed right now.  Doubt it, but the shorts are sure winning without much of an effort.  Today's rally at the close was again a sign that the locals are pushing this one down and when they cover their shorts in the last minute or two, there isn't much selling.  Bottom line here is that the locals need to make some money on the long side before we are going to see much of a rally.  They won't make money on a long trade until they lose money on a short trade.  That might happen sometime between now at $2.50 cents a bushel...just kidding.  They are doing just fine pushing the short side.  PB tonight is at 30% which is a 2% drop on a 5 cent down day.  We could drop another 10 cents easily before hitting major over sold conditions.   One word of caution...if there is any bullish change in the fundamental outlook, this one is going to explode.  But that is a HUGE IF!!! 

Rice -  As we said last night, the market wasn't as interested in the WMP not being changed as some were hoping.  We sold off early right to our buy back window we talked about last night.  The market found support there and rallied to down 4 to 6 cents for most of the day.  At the close, we rallied back to the highs and will end up down a couple of cents on the day but only because the last 60 seconds of trade had a range from $7.45 to $7.50 which will give us a $7.47 1/2 close down 1 1/2 cents for January.  I did what I said I would do and raised my buy back position to 60% today.  PB remains at 62% so there is plenty of room to the upside.

Tomorrow, we will not be talking about yesterday's WMP at all but will be looking at the sales sheet in the morning for direction.  There was more talk today about last Monday's Iraqi tender for 100,000 MT of US Rice.  I think this is already in the market as a done deal; however, some rumors have the amount up to 200,000 MT in total.  I'll be happy when we confirm the first 100,000 MT.  That may get the ball rolling for more rice sales to Iraq as the Asian market is tight and we have quickly available exportable supplies.  All of this adds up to another reason why all eyes are on the Asian rice market over the near term.