Monday December 31st- Market Closed Tomorrow....

Corn – Up 4 on spread ideas with soybeans.  There is still no sign of a top in the corn as today's low becomes major support near term.  I know I sound like a stuck CD but do not be selling anything here yet.  The time is coming and I will be screaming to sell it but that time is not yet.  PB dropped back to 82% the last few days so it is better balanced but it remains high and we remain vulnerable to a major setback but even so, there is no sign of selling anywhere that could push us lower in a sustainable down move.  So until that condition changes, we will remain on the long side holding cash and waiting to start selling 2008 corn. 

Wheat – Hook reversal up today but not a lot of strength in the move.  We need follow through the next few trading days and we certainly need the recent lows to hold.  We are not buying this one just yet but will probably sell some puts as our first step into the long side.  This is the break we wanted to buy but have been surprised at its severity so we will need some solid proof of the move. 

Beans – After breaking 42 cents in one minute last week, beans couldn't make new lows but they didn't rally  either finishing down 6 on the day.  We need a close back over $12.30 to establish the market back in a bull move.  Friday's low at $11.88 is major support.  I don't see the market taking that out too soon but this one is going to be jerked around by the funds near term.  We still recommend getting to 75% sold in 2007's crop just because we are over $12.00, the market is vulnerable and we continue to believe that when a major break happens, it will be much like last Friday's action which is a warning shot for all bulls in this market.  No selling in November is recommended.

Rice – OK...I don't know what happened here.  As I write this, the market shows to be down 10 1/2 in March but the last trade was 13.99 in the Electronic market with a bid of $13.92.  The close is set at $10.86 1/2.  So again, I don't know what happened here.  The Pit close shows the $10.85 low so I can only suppose that in the last few seconds someone sold a ton of Jan or March rice in the pit and the electronic market never had a chance to trade.   The electronic market did trade down 10 on a 4 lot so someone had the chance to trade there but not in March.  That is what I think but I do not know.  If we get better information we will update here but otherwise, what we have is what we have.

If the market sold off that hard in the Jan because of deliveries, then we will have to wait and see the end result open interest on Wednesday and how the trade responds.  Is this the beginning of fund selling???  That would be the other concern but again, we will   have to wait and see how this sorts out.

Natural Gas – Up 10 on continued heavy use of Gas on cold weather.  No sign of a top here so we could still go a little higher near term

Cattle – Firm as market is quiet in front of holiday.

Dow – Down 70 with 15 minutes left.  We will see what the market looks like after the first week of 2008. 

Cotton – Up 12 in a another quiet market.

Gold - Down $5.70 as the market consolidates gains.  No sign of a top here either. 

Friday December 28th-   SALES RECOMMENDATION TODAY- 2007 Soybeans

Corn – Down 2 3/4 today but with the beans collapse late, who knows what is in store for us early next week.  Keep close contact because the warning signs are here.  Read bean comments tonight.

We are not selling anything yet and that has been the right strategy but we could sell a little of the 2008 corn crop if things start to point to a major sell off. 

Wheat – Limit Down today as more concern ideas of a good winter wheat crop coming as profit taking running wild.  The sell off today is over done and we could bounce but here again, the beans could have some impact on that.  No selling recommended here beyond where we are currently.  Another push higher after the first is likely but from what level??  Time will tell. 

Beans – WOW!!!  In the last minute, beans broke 42 cents on 675 contracts trading in that 60 second period of time.  They settled the beans down 8 1/2 at 12.23 but that is 34 cents up from the last trade.  Somebody got killed or made a mistake or both.  Monday will be interesting.  Overnight trade starts at 6:30 on Sunday night and we will update the overnight trade by 8:00 AM Monday morning.  History says that the trade today is good...which should scare the tar out of bulls; however, with the close where it was, we may see buyers come right in Sunday night at the closing value.  So if we start at $12.23 and sell off during the night, look out in Rice and Corn. 

We are recommending selling another 25% of our 2007 beans...that gets us to 75% sold on old crop.  We are not ready to sell anything in 2008.

Rice – Up 14 but rice never had the chance to react with beans collapsing in the last 60 seconds.  Monday will be interesting and I can see it either way.  I am not trading it short yet but am still ready once we get the signals to short it.  Longs should be very careful early next week. 

Natural Gas – Up 18 cents on concerns of extended cold weather.  We could bounce nicely if that is the situation but it better be very cold very long.  

Cattle – The contracts are spreading out in line with last weeks Cattle report.  June cattle were higher with February lower.  That could continue for a few more days. 

Dow – Down 30 with no real new news.  The Cattle report of last week has the buyers backing up still. 

Cotton – Up 11 and we will buy a break here to test support.  Do not be selling anything here. 

Gold - Up $10,.60 and looking very good.  $1,000 in 2008 is likely.  GLD is still the best buy...that is an exchange traded fund. 

Thursday December 27th-

Corn – 2 to 4 higher today as corn went against the flow in wheat and beans.   It could be unwinding of spreads but in any event, there is no sell signal here.  PB (click on PB for explanation) is at 90.3% which is very high but I can still see it higher; however, the market indications are that a correction is needed to balance the market so futures is not the place to be and with the basis as bad as it is, this no time to be selling anything in the cash market.  A possible 30 cent correction exists in the next few days to couple of weeks so prepare yourself for that.  . 

Wheat – Hard day down as rain forecasts keep the market from exploding in new crop wheat.  Old crop succumbed to selling in other contracts of wheat at Kansas City and Minneapolis with some of those contracts hitting limit down.  More selling is likely near term but the odds of another push longer term is pretty large.   If $9.04 in March on the CBOT is broken, we could see another large round of selling from the funds.

Beans – Beans gave back some of the gains earlier this week.  Down 8 today and we are looking for support levels to hold as longer term, beans needs to secure acres. 

Rice – Down 5 today as rice pulled back with the beans and wheat.  Thin trade continues to be the main feature here but there is room for higher prices still.  Even so, the other grains will have some impact so keep a close watch on them. 

Natural Gas – Sitting on $7.10.  A test of $7.00 seems likely and possibly a test of the January Contract recent low of $6.85. 

Cattle – The contracts are spreading out in line with last weeks Cattle report.  June cattle were higher with February lower.  That could continue for a few more days. 

Dow – Down 192 as the good news of Christmas is over and sales were mixed. 

Cotton – Up 66 and still looks higher near term.  Nothing wrong with owning some cotton here and especially on consolidation breaks.   

Gold - Up $2.20 and still looking good.

Wednesday December 26th-

Corn – Corn up with soybeans.  PB is crossing 90% indicating a top is immanent.  So far no sign of one technically and we could easily work another 20 cents higher before a top but there is one coming and when it happens, it will not be pretty for the bulls.  For now, do not be selling anything. 

Wheat – Higher but off the highs as profit taking occurred going into the close.  The market actually looks like it has made a short term top.  We will wait it out to see if it confirms or starts another leg higher. 

Beans – Palm oil was sharply higher on Wednesday and when the market opened here in the United Sates, the beans rocketed higher and finished up 38 cents.  No sign of a top here at all.  

Rice – Up 6 in a quiet trade.  The market is slowing down on its move higher but the holiday trade is no time to get any major indication of market direction.  For now, it still looks higher but the other grains must hold. 

Natural Gas – Up 1 with a little hook reversal.  We will wait and see what the market does tomorrow but for now, nothing has changed and we can still see February under $7.00. 

Cattle – The Cattle on feed report was a little bearish on the front months and the market is holding those loses. 

Dow – Up 2 and dead is the word for today's action. 

Cotton – Up 54 and still holding gains from the past two weeks.  Looks higher still near term. 

Gold - Up 13.20 and looking very strong.  Another leg up is likely to have begun.

Monday December 24th-

Comment – Wheat and rice were lower with corn and beans hanging on.  The trade today means nothing as we await everything returning to normal which really won't happen until January 7th.  I can see all the markets easily jerked around the next few days so we will not be trading anything for a while.  

Friday December 21st-

Comment – No changes from last night...our next full update, Monday after the noon close.

Thursday December 20th-

Corn – Corn rallied from early lows based on short covering and very thin market conditions.  Every time the market breaks we see buying and that indicates a bull market still intact.  When we break and find selling, that will say the opposite.   We want to buy a nice break but it may be a while before that happens.  Near term still looks higher until the buying dries up.

Wheat – Poor exports took this one lower.  We need follow through tomorrow to show us a market where lower prices brings in selling instead of buying just as we said in corn.  For now we remain out of it but those $1`0.00 March calls are looking attractive.  We are not going to be short anywhere just yet. 

Beans – We finished up 2 but 7 off the highs.  No reason to sell yet.

Rice – The market broke big today but it didn't stay down as the market rallied on fund buying.  Tomorrow COT report will be most interesting.  For now, we have no reason to sell anything but a move under $13.40 in March changes everything. 

Natural Gas – Down 6 but holding over $7.00.  We still it lower but the risk is for a surprise weather change. 

Cattle – Down 45 and sideways waiting for tomorrow Cattle-on-Feed report. 

Dow – Up 38 and looking for more news.  Is there another surprise in the future...  yep, there always is!!!

Cotton – Down 10 and looking like it is ready to head for the exits if the other grains do the same. 

Gold - Down $5.00 and it did trade under $800 today for a little while.  I still see it sideways near term and higher long term.

Wednesday December 19th-

Corn – We remain in the cautious camp near term but longer-tern we still see it higher.  Today's action was sideways at the higher level finishing up 3 with bear spreading occurring.  One thing we know is that many corn farmers are selling year end for tax reasons and that has the cash market seeing red with a collapsed basis.  The action remains bullish longer term as the futures is still pointing higher. 

Wheat – Another strong day and wheat is still pointed higher but there is a chance we are seeing a formation that signals a top.  I think it will not confirm and the market will still work higher.  The funds are leaving some financial positions and they still like being in the grains.   

Beans – Higher today with January up 10 cents.  This one can run another buck with little trouble as no one wants to be a seller.  That will change but I don't know when. It certainly hasn't happen yet. 

Rice – Read last night and then look at rice up 12 cents today.   Markets go higher to invite selling and just as the other grains show, we have not found major sellers in rice either.  For now, I think higher near term and then look out for a huge correction once the business is done.  Cash prices have started to firm which really needs to happen. 

Natural Gas – Still holding the lower levels.  I see no reason to own it right now.  Feb under $7.00 is still my thinking. 

Cattle – Nothing to say here.  Friday's report will point the direction.

Dow – Down 25 but here to there is no real sign of a major push.  I know a lot of people are talking bottom and the market higher into 2008.  I can see it either way but if there is a recession, it has to go lower to take out the multiples. 

Cotton – Up 55 as the grains firm.  I think we might inch up here near term.

Gold - Down $2.00 in lack luster trade.  Longer term I like gold but near term, we could run back under $800.00.

Tuesday December 18th-

Corn – Lower today and closing on support.  We see the market lower near term but higher long term.  Old crop sellers should not be selling with the basis at historic lows and we will not be selling any new crop for awhile.  Look for pressure here before the end of the year but I could be wrong on that.  In general.  DO NOT BE SHORT.

Wheat – Follow through selling ends the wheat on major support as well.  Not ready to call it as the demand side and the wheat shortage still indicates higher prices are very possible. 

Beans – Lower here too finishing down 8.  No sell signals even with the selling as it appeared to be very light.

Rice – The buying in rice is now being linked to Venezuela needing paddy rice.  Makes sense with the revolts happening down there.  90,000 MT is now confirmed to be needed and that is a bunch of rice.  Look for more upside near term as the market is not finding sellers.  If the cash buyers need protection they will buy futures but for the life me I wonder why with the spread this far apart.  In any event...DO NOT BE SHORT.

Natural Gas – Up 4 cents with the funds still selling away. I can see another break unless the weather turns much colder in the Northeast.

Cattle – Up 112 points as cash cattle firms and ideas of more demand surface.  Cattle on Feed report this Friday will tell the tale for the near term.

Dow – Up 65 but it still looks weak after the first of the year and 13,000 is still a target.

Cotton – Up 10 but no reason to own it...or sell it for that matter.

Gold - Higher even with the dollar up today.  I see it sideways and looking for news.

Monday December 17th-

General Comment - The dollar is still working higher and Gold and Crude lower.  Huge volatility in the grains today.

Corn – Corn held on after taking out Friday's high and low to finished up 1/2 cent.  Wheat finished with a reversal down and so some of the action today was buying the corn and  selling the wheat as we went into the last 30 minutes of the day.  All in all, not a good performance and tomorrow we will watch to see if corn can test today's low of $4.31 1/2.   A move under there could signal some massive profit taking.   

Wheat – A huge spike reversal down today but we have seen them before and they meant nothing.  The proof is in the day following.  If we get a hard day down, wheat is topping near term.  We will wait for follow through selling before we o anything here. 

Beans – Up one after being higher and lower many times today.  Volatility like this suggests a change in direction but we need follow through just like we mentioned in the corn before wanting to do anything different. 

Rice – Huge day today as the market was up over 44 cents in the overnight trade only to finish up 7 cents.  Most of the news was about the huge demand for rice world wide as quoted by an article in the Wall Street Journal but that news is old it is just that it hit the street in the Journal making it news.  We also heard more damage has been doe to the China rice crop and it could mean even more demand for rice from Thailand and Viet Nam. 

I can't sell rice here yet but man today's action is bearish.  A move under $13.40 in March rice (the same place we have been talking about) sets the table for a washout of longs. 

Natural Gas – Up 2 cents as cold weather grips parts of the US but nothing of a surprise just yet. 

Cattle – Up 12.  Nothing new for us to talk about here.

Dow – Down 172 points.  As we said last Friday, under 13,000 is likely before the end of the year.

Cotton – Down 20 as the market looks for direction. 

Gold - A little higher but Gold is lower in the night trade. 

Friday December 14th- WOW!!!  Another one of those days...

General Comment - It has been a long time since we have seen the strength we saw in the dollar today.  This move indicates a top in the Euro and a bottom for the green back and with Crude Oil lower today and Gold down another $6.00, the grains are in position to go it alone but I think they are approaching a level that is not sustainable in the near term.  Even so, there was no sell signal today and I can't short this one until I get a reason to do so.  So once again, I am close to selling a bunch even though it is short term. 

Corn – Up 3 in the old crop and down 1 in the new crop.  The bull spreading of Wheat has now moved over into corn so not only does corn have to go higher without the help of the outside markets, it has to go higher without the help of the new crop months.   Read our comments on wheat as we see the markets starting to signal the end but so far there is no reason to sell it until we get the signal to do so.  PB is up to 86% so a corrective move is likely next week. 

Wheat – The old crop gained on new crop by 44 cents today.  That is a hug move in the spread as the market saw snow and rain for the plains as bearish new crop yet a shortage in wheat for old crop as bullish.  Minneapolis wheat  hit $11.30 cents today which is an all time high.  Old crop March also set new highs at Chicago and while the market is screaming toward $10.00, the market is to a point of saturation which could at some point bring in a huge correction.  We remain cautious and looking to sell this rally as we still hold 50% of our wheat crop.   When we get a sell signal, it is going to be fast furious and right down nasty but we should get a chance to get it sold. 

Beans – Well, we were true to our word and sold calls on the day after the market looked to weaken up after the open.  Late in the day the beans made new highs for the move as it took out yesterday's high and so we bought those calls right back.  Losing a few cents is OK here because if we hit the short call position right, it is going to be a quick ride down looking for support.  The market closed at a PB rating of 79% which still bodes OK for further price advance.  If it hits over 85%, we start to get really worried.   Like it is in March Corn.

Rice – As I said last night, this $13.40-$13.45 window is support and it held again today.  Down 5 cents and this afternoons' COT report shows Funds have indeed began lightening up and taking profits.  It also showed that small Specs were buyers and added 10% to their long position.  That gives us some motivated sellers if the funds decide to really lighten up.  A move under $13.40 could accelerate this one toward the $13.00 level in March. 

Natural Gas – Down 17 cents and looking to test $7.00 in February gas.   

Cattle – Up 30 with the down holding into the cattle close.  The Dow didn't hold at the end of the day so there could be more weakness here early next week. 

Dow – Down 178 points as the market continue it jitters over inflation.  Well Dah!!!   I remain on the side of recession and think it will raise its ugly head in the first quarter of 2008.  Below 13,000 on the Dow is likely before year's end. 

Cotton – Up 94 as the other grains give cause for the cotton to look for resistance. 

Gold - Down 6.00 with the dollar sharply higher.  The market is confirming a top on Gold near term.     

Thursday December 13th-

General Comment - While I am not ready to shout SELL I am dang close.  We are selling Calls in the market place and placing stops as indicated in each commodity comment below.  The thing is, the outside markets are not pointing to a further rally in the grains and we could see some sharp moves in the next few trading days.  I will say this... tomorrow which is Friday is a big, BIG day.  A sharply lower close in the grains will be a major sell signal.  While I am not sure this is going to happen, I am sure the market is setup for it to happen. 

Corn – Up 2 with a lack luster volume today.  Some may actually say this was a spike top formation today but I am not going that far.  Corn seems to be in a phase of higher by default but with the beans lower today, corn is actually setup to move lower tomorrow.  Wheat remains a guide but read our comments there as it could spell the beginning of the end of this leg in corn.  Let me emphasis "COULD".  By the way, Crude Oil and the Gold were sharply lower today and the Dollar sharply higher.  All three point to lower corn prices dead ahead.  We are selling March $4.30 calls and will buy them back if we close the March over $4.40. 

Wheat – The spread between old and new widened big time today but it did so with massive selling in the New Crop wheat.  This is EXACTLY how old crop wheat topped last time and if we see more of this, old crop will be come very susceptible to a correction.  That will take the whole grain complex down if it happens.  I'm not saying it will happen but we have to be on the look out for a change in direction at this level.  We are selling March $10.00 calls here and will exit them if we close over $9.70.

Beans – Big hook reversal down today and so today's high is now major resistance.  We are selling 11.60 calls and placing related stops which mean we will exit the calls if the market makes new highs.  Follow through selling tomorrow will mean an end to this leg.  Longer term there will be another leg higher but this leg may be in trouble.

Rice – Down 10 to 11 today with the markets checking support at the $13.40 to $13.45 level.  A move under this range will setup more long liquidation by the funds and if they come for it big, we could see a major sell off.  The other grains will have some say in it as well so a close watch is needed if you are long and looking to exit for now.  Longer term it is still going higher but a hard correction lasting for up to 8 weeks is possible. 

We have already recommended being out of all long positions and while I like the short side here for a quick pop IF this is indeed the top of this leg, I am going to wait on selling options because it is hard to get in and out of the Rice options.  I like short futures better but am not ready to take that step either. 

Natural Gas – Down 23 and just as we expected the market can't hold gains because of the huge inventory.  We will buy this break at some point no doubt but we could work lower near term without major weather changes.  

Cattle – Down 162 as the market is reeling to the signs of economic slowdown and recession. We talked about a test of 92 in February and it looks like that is what will happen.  

Dow – Up 41 points which is 230 points off of today's high... enough said.  The craziness continues and recession is on the way.  I will point out again, that past history is no guarantee of future results and what most talking heads on CNBC are saying is based on History. 

Cotton – Up 44 on a last hour rally into positive territory.  Not sure but it is beginning to look like a shot deer looking for a place to die. 

Gold - Down 14.60 with the dollar sharply higher.  This looks like a top in Gold as well.  Tomorrow is a big day.   

Wednesday December 12th-

General Comment-    Outside markets were supportive today but mildly so.  The general theory is we are going to run out of everything and the sellers are just not showing up to sell.  Do not be short anything right now as far as grains are concerned. 

Corn – Up 9 today with no selling to stop the fund buying spree.  Small specs are short and they are also getting out so we will look at open interest tomorrow to see if this is mainly short covering.  PB rose to 84% today which is an indication of extreme over bought conditions but again, we could stay this way for a couple of weeks.  Sellers, if you need to sell right now, should consider selling $4.40 calls in the March as a hedge.  But if you don't need to sell....DON'T!!!!

Wheat – Limit bid today after yesterdays selling turned into a mad dash to own every type of wheat.  The market was bid limit up with over 34,000 contracts bid at limit up on the close.  December which is not under limits since it is in deliveries, closed up 40 cents.  That indicates March at least 10 cents higher tonight and maybe a gap formation.  That gap could indicate exhaustion but it also could be a measuring gap.  You don't want to know what it projects.  In any event...DO NOT BE SHORT HERE!!!  We covered all $10.00 calls and while I think this market is headed for a MAJOR collapse, there is no sign of it and I wouldn't even think of trying to pick a top here. 

Beans – Up 15 cents and the same goes for beans as corn.  There is no sign of a top and for my part, beans in the teens is just around the corner.  This is an unbelievable move and one like we have never seen so let  it rip and DO NOT BE SHORT!!!

Rice – Up 3 and struggling as the funds were reported to be sellers here today.  How's that, they sold and the market is up.  In general, we se problems here but again, no top.  We don't want to be long except cash rice and I'll be danged if I can get short.  Seems like every time I try I get my head handed to me.

Remember, rice is different in that the cash market is way under the futures.  This is very unusual and while cash can jump in a heart beat, it appears the mills are in no hurry to buy cash rice.  At some point, the two will come together but this is one year I am glad I didn't buy rice and sell the futures.   Again, no sign of a top so we remain out looking to get short at some point. 

Natural Gas – Cold weather pushed gas sharply higher today with Jan up 33 cents.  This run may not hold very long but it could run another 50 cents too. 

Cattle – Down 65 and near lows just like the Dow.  There is a chance we are going 2 to 4 bucks lower here if the stocks put on another push toward below the 13,000 level.

Dow – Up 41 points which is 230 points off of today's high... enough said.  The craziness continues and recession is on the way.  I will point out again, that past history is no guarantee of future results and what most talking heads on CNBC are saying is based on History. 

Cotton – Up 117 point in March on the rally in the financials and Ag markets in general.  Could this be the beginning of a push to buy acres???   

Gold - Up $2.70.  Sold off early but came back to close up on the day.  Strength remains probable near term. 

Tuesday December 11th-

General Comment-  With the Fed action, tomorrow could be interesting in the outside markets.  Make sure you look at tonight's action if you can to see where the trade lines up on this.  

Corn – Up 6 today with this mornings S&D report adding more to the bullish tone than anyone expected.  There is still no sign of a top here but be careful.

Wheat – Last night I said don't be short but today the market got great news from the USDA and closed on the lows down 18 cents.  A bearish response to bullish news actually sets us up to go lower near term.  I want to buy this break because timing is not right for a major top unless there is something else out there we don't know.    

Beans – Up 8 cents on good news from the USDA as supplies dropped but again the market didn't really catch fire.  We remain in the battle for acres and my concern is we can't keep on running in this direction near term.  The cash pipeline is full of corn and beans and this futures move is Fund led.  If they need to take profits because of the stock market, we could see a correction near term. 

Rice – Down 8 with a reversal in the electronic market.  Today's low at $13.40 is huge for March rice.  If we take that out, lookout!!!

Natural Gas – Up 7 cents and looking at crude soaring.  Weather conditions still is the key near term.  Sideways remains the best guess from the charts and technical indicators. 

Cattle – Up 17 but that was before the stock market broke 297 points.  Look for weakness here tomorrow. 

Dow – Read our comments the last three days..."Buy the rumor sell the fact" is what we warned of and man did we get exactly that.  It didn't matter what the Fed did, this one was going down after the announcement.  Chances of a recession in the first quarter remain high.  Look for lower tomorrow and maybe sharply lower at some point. 

Cotton – Down 55 as we turn to March.  Look for accordion action with this contract which indicates a slow move toward 62 cents. 

Gold - Up $3.80.  Watch out for it tomorrow as the market may recoil higher with the stock market down. 

Monday December 10th-

General Comment-  Dollar lower with Gold strong and Crude weak.  Looks liker the grains are divorcing themselves from the outside markets and that is bullish. 

Corn – Up 1/2 in a quiet consolidation.  Market looks OK with strong demand.  Corn appears to be a follower near term as wheat and Soybean Meal will yank it around. 

Wheat – Today was one of those strange days that doesn't happen very often at all.  We finished up 8 cents with a trend day DOWN.  Yep Down.  That indicates consolidation and is bullish near term.  Do not be short wheat here.   

Beans – Up 6 and also consolidation with a sideways day.  This is bullish beans and especially meal which seems to be the leaded of the products. 

Rice – Down 6 with a hook reversal down.  In the past that has not carried forward to the next day so tomorrow we'll see if there is any additional selling here.  Look at July 2008.  It is now trading over $14.00 which is a $7.50 premium.  Something has to give but not for a while. 

Natural Gas – Down 11 as we trade right at $7.00 in the January.  No sign of a bottom here yet. 

Cattle – Up 37 in a sloppy market with cash moving back and forth and a near term drop in cattle moving into the market.   

Dow – Up 101...no comment until the Fed speaks this week but be prepared for a buy the rumor sell the fact result. 

Cotton – Up 12 and quiet.  I see president Jimmy Carter spoke out against cotton subsidies in favor of the African farmers.  Hey don't shoot me, I'm just the messenger.  What got me is he said he was "still a cotton farmer"...sure he is!!!! 

Gold - Up 12.80 and looking to challenge the recent highs. 

Friday December 7th-

General Comment-  The dollar was lower today as was crude and gold.  Even so, there is no sign of the funds giving up on grains.  Weather concerns for wheat has it headed higher and that was the main story today.  Read below.

Corn – Up 5 in a quiet day even with Wheat limit up.  Corn lead the way earlier in the week but beans and wheat have certainly taken over.  No sign of a top so let it go.  We will do some selling at some point but not right here. 

Wheat – Limit up on dry weather and lower world production concerns.  Wheat could challenge contract highs so we are out of all positions in futures and have covered all short calls.  This could get really interesting in the weeks ahead. 

Beans – Up 21 today with March making new contract highs.  We still like it higher from here and are looking for a change in direction but certainly no sign of it yet. 

Rice – Up 16 today and now headed for the contract highs again.  I said several weeks ago, the markets will go higher than they should and then lower than they should.  So far I am right on half of that as the market has run away from the cash market and still looks to go higher to test the contract highs.  I like being long cash right here and in no way would I be short but at the same time, I would be very cautious about being long futures in a large position right now.   

Natural Gas – Down 17 today and still in a down trend.  $7.00 is the target and we might go even lower.

Cattle – Up 72 on feed costs.  Looks OK to work higher near term as well. 

Dow – Up 22...no comment until the Fed speaks next week but be prepared for a buy the rumor sell the fact result. 

Cotton – Up 72 with the rest of the Ag markets. 

Gold - Down $8.00 as all eyes remain on the dollar here. 

Thursday December 6th-

General Comment-  Dollar lower with reversals down against the EURO.  Gold was higher and crude jumped $2.70.  Not the atmosphere for selling in the grains to say the least. 

Corn – Up 1 after being lower for much of the session but we also were higher at 1 PM and sold off a bit.  The next couple of days the market looks to be pointed higher.  No sign of a top at all so we are not selling.

Wheat – Up 7 after being up 12 with no sign of a pause in this short term rally for wheat.  We see it higher as well over the next several days.  We have covered all short calls for now. 

Beans – Unchanged after trading both sides of last nights close.  There has been no major selling to stop the run so look for more up into next week. 

Rice – Up 10 but still not in new high territory.  Tomorrow nights COT report will be interesting.  Today's sales were huge but 75% of it was short grain.  While we are out of long futures, we are not short here and will not be until the market proves it has turned..  Right now the market is exactly where the retracement theory says we should rally to; however, that doesn't mean we are going down.  I want to be totally understood here.  This market is very susceptible to a break and very soon; however, it can hold under these conditions for a couple of weeks.  It is just once we start seeing the funds coming out of this market, it could get very ugly very quickly.  

Natural Gas – Up 17 cents on a cold weather forecast near term. 

Cattle – Up 15 in another quiet session.  We like it longer term but it can go either way near term. 

Dow – Up 128 with the news that there will be a bail out for some of the sub-prime mess.  The fed speaks next week and after that??? Well, that is what concerns me. 

Cotton – Down 13 and quiet.

Gold - Up $6.10 today with the dollar lower.   Markets continue in transition with all eyes on the dollar. 

Wednesday December 5th-

General Comment-  The dollar worked sharply higher today and is signaling a problem for gold and crude to continue working higher.  That may work over into the grains if the funds start to dump.  No sign of it yet but we are going to be watching closely.

Corn – Unchanged and trading both sides of last nights close.  PB is 71% with room to go; however, outside markets can have an affect so we will continue to monitor the market for signs of reversal action.

Wheat – Lower today but closing 10 cents off the low.   Looks higher near term as weather is bullish as is demand near term.

Beans – Up 8 in a quiet session but the market traded lower in the session and didn't like it down there rallying toward resistance.  Looks higher near term. 

Rice – Up 6 to 8 today in a quiet trading session.  We are right up at the point where if there is going to be a failure to push into new highs, this area is where it should stop.  Even so, the market looks like the sellers are hibernating.   I have already said I don't like the open interest held by funds here but if they are content to hold those positions, we can make ne highs.  It can go either way.

Natural Gas – Up 5 cents and looking hard at weather forecasts.  We need extended cold weather for the market to rally a bunch.

Cattle – Down 7 in the February and very quiet.

Dow – Up 196 as the market tries to find direction.  Rallies need to be sold until the market can really find a reason to bounce in a sustained run.

Cotton – Down 13 and quiet.

Gold - Down 5.40 and back under $800.00.  I can see a washout here if the dollar follows on through to higher levels. 

Tuesday December 4th-

General Comment-  We are taking a cautious stance with the grains but all of our analysis still rests with the dollar value and a change in its major direction.  If the dollar is not changing direction, commodities in general can work higher.  Just remember, when the dollar confirms the end, the commodity trends will reverse and it will not be pretty and it will not reverse quietly.  Even so, for now, there is no sign of a change.

Corn – Up 7 as the funds keep coming for corn.  There seems to be an enormous interest in owning commodities right now and that is coming out as buyers see little resistance and a cheaper dollar.  March close above the $4.10 resistance zone and that sets up a test of the highs at $4.23 and then $4.35 if not the contract high at $4.44.  We have been on the bull side in the long-term for sometime but again, pull backs and short-term retractions are expected into the planting season of 2008 which is why I am short some out of the money calls.  Look for breaks to buy positions as the market looks like it needs to go higher.   

Wheat – Strong day today on Fund buying.  Wheat moved 18 cents higher and looks like it can test the major resistance at $9.11.  Tight world supplies will keep the bears at bay until we see what yields look like in the next few months.  We will be selling this rally but there is no sign of an end to it yet.    

Beans – Up 12 with a strong day on outside buying.  We could test recent highs and right now it looks like we may take them out.  We moved to 50% sold in beans and still have a profit in that sales recommendation but today it looks like I will be wrong so to protect myself, I may sell some Puts tomorrow. 

Rice – Up 3 to 7 today and the market is ready to test its reversal from last week.  While we can work higher again I caution traders from being longs here because when the break comes it may be very ugly.  PB is back to 68% so the market has room to go higher and if we make new highs, then all bets are off and we can run 40 or 50 cents higher on thin volume.  Tough call but something has to giver between the spec market and the cash.  

Natural Gas – Traded under $7.10 today and looks like it wants to go even lower. 

Cattle – Down 5 and very quiet. 

Dow – Down 42 and still trading as I type this.  Remember, if the Fed cuts, it will only give bears more reason to sell with a buy the rumor sell the fact result. 

Cotton – Unchanged and very quiet.  No reason to trade it. 

Gold - Up $13.00.  The dollar is weaker again and some are now saying the lows last week will not stop the decline further.  We are bearish gold ONLY if the dollar has made a bottom.   

Monday December 3rd-

Corn – Up 2 today again today but off the highs and just rising enough in the last 15 minutes to avoid a reversal down.  There is nothing new to comment about here.  There is no sign of sell signals but there is some major concern about the current fund participation.  I remain short some calls on cash corn but looking to buy a break...a nice break. 

Wheat – Down 7 but a strong rally going into the close kept us from being down 20 cents.  We will watch the market near term but it still looks weak to me; however, the rally at the close today could launch us higher tomorrow.  

Beans – Up 1 /1/2 in March after being weaker all day.  Some corn/bean spreading was a factor early but that seemed to dry up.  Let's see if this market can bounce a little tonight and tomorrow. 

Rice – Up 7 as the market tests the idea of a recent top.  Open interest is not dropping and the funds are hanging in but today's low now becomes major support and I think the funds will start to come out of that level is violated.  Even so, the next couple of days could be spent looking at the recent resistance points and could establish our second point for a down trend.  I am still very cautious here and want to sell it near term. 

Natural Gas – Mild weather keeps the market under pressure.  The market came back from lows as crude rallied but even so, we may need more cold weather soon to keep us over $7.00.

Cattle – Up 60 and holding sideways. 

Dow – Down 57 and I still see more weakness near term.  If the Fed cuts, it will only give bears more reason to sell with a buy the rumor sell the fact result. 

Cotton – March was down 5 today.  Quiet  but still no reason to trade it. 

Gold - Up $5.20 and here too I see no reason to trade it.  I see more downside possible if the dollar as indeed made a low.  That is still to be determined.