Tuesday February 28th - 10:00 PM -Quick one tonight!!!

Corn - Nothing new here.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  Our attitude is to buy breaks.

Bean - Nothing new here either.  Don't like beans right now but that could change in a few months.

Wheat - Still in up trend.  Buy location is about 5 cent slower than today's close and then another buy point about 10 cents lower.  We'll see if those levels support.

Rice - WMP unchanged.  Nothing to report here so we'll continue to set in a buy breaks posture.

Natural Gas - Market took out last June's low but didn't close there.  The gap made two days ago now forecasts a move to ...well to where they would pay you to take it.  That gap will not hold.  Look for market to take out the gap on a rally to $7.11 in the April .  Then we may roll over and try to go lower still.  Next level of support is $6.50 which was almost tested today and in fact may be was.  There is no reason to buy here is you need coverage.  It is still going in the right direction but it has our full attention.

Crude Oil -  What a ride.  Who knows!!!!

Dow - The break today may be bad news if there is follow through selling tomorrow.  This could be a classic bull trap and a close back under 10,900 will signal a hefty retreat.  This one too has our full attention.

Monday February 27th - 2:00 PM - NEXT UPDATE LATE ON TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY

Corn - We tried to go lower all day long but at the end the day was a push.  Even so, the day goes to the bulls as the market is finding it hard to have all that much selling right in here.  The USDA's export numbers continue to be far a head of the average pace and the news of China out of the market is going to make it hard for any breaks here.  We remain long and will until we have conclusive evidence to be a seller. 

Bean - Nice rally here but where is it going.  If you go back on out 3-1 ratio spread for and corn and beans, you would find a 33 cent profit on the 3 corn and and a 37 cent profit on the soybeans.  Like we said, it makes a lot more sense to be long 3 corn than 1 soybean contract.   I think that trade will still work but it will not be as profitable now as it was when we recommended it the first time. 

Wheat - Last Thursday we said that wheat could work lower but we still liked it.  A nice move up today and we still see it higher.  Tomorrow will be interesting.  We are long 40% for this move and that is all we will do given the timing right now.

Rice - I thought we had the makings of  a good break in rice starting today but it didn't turn out to be that negative.  The grains moving into new highs for the day pushed the bears back into hibernation but will they come to play tomorrow.  We remain long about 45% and want to buy breaks but I want a bigger one than what occurred today.  I still like rice higher longer term but am praying it doesn't rally too soon to buy a bunch of acres.  

Natural Gas - If you read last weeks comments on Thursday I said we needed follow through to the up action on last Wednesday and it we didn't get it, all bets are off on the upside.  Today's maybe setting up another push but we gapped and that has some technicians, including me, asking about an exhaustion gap.  The next few days will be important.  PB remains above 30% so there is nothing to get excited about a bottom yet.  The action today was negative but it seemed the volume dried up at the lower end of the range.  If that happens tomorrow, we could see a short covering rally.  I want to sell more July puts but right now I don't have any reason to do it and I'll be danged if I am ready to try and pick a bottom in this market right now.   

Crude Oil -  What goes up...will come down.  The new about Iran sent the market plummeting as you might expect.  Crude is going to remain in wide ranges as Geo-news sets the stage.

Dow - The market is set to test all time highs.  11,200 will provide some resistance but probably not enough.

Sunday February 26th - 8:00 PM  Partial Update

General Comments  - It is Sunday night and the grain markets a little lower tonight with corn off 1 1/2 and beans down 3.  Wheat is unchanged.  Tomorrow will be interesting as the market looks for more fund buying.  We have a good shot at new highs in March this week.  We want to remain long and may add but we will wait for a down draft now.  Yes, I am tempted to take profits on corn but the China news is important for corn and we could see more fund buying tomorrow based on the current trend.  We may be selling calls to cover longs if we break into new highs and then start to struggle.  Again, it is just a little early.

Rice - I like the action Friday but again, rice doesn't usually make a "V" bottom.  I still think we could see a further push higher and then test support.

Natural Gas - I think we could push into new lows but it needs to do it soon.  If we test the lows again and bounce, we could see a nice one even though the fundamentals do not support it.  A bounce should be sold especially if it can get back to the 9 week moving average.

Cattle - Our system is now showing an imminent low in April cattle.  The Cattle on feed report was bearish so that sets up the low to be made in the next two days.  If you are short, cover NOW.  Cattle DOES make a "V" bottom.

Friday February 24th - 1:30 PM  Partial Update

General Comment  - Powerful day today in corn as China announces they will stop exporting corn February 28th.  If you have been along time reader here you know for TWO YEARS we have been talking about China becoming a corn importer as well as a rice importer in the next few years.  The first step toward that is they stop exporting which is now happening. 

Before I comment in detail I want to do some studying to see what the affects of today means for the short term.  I'll come back and have more on all the markets either tonight or tomorrow.  Also, the natural gas market today needs a full look based on crude oil up over $2.00 and Natural gas down.  Rice was up strong as well going into the close. 

We will do our homework and then have full comments as soon as we can.

Thursday February 23rd - 3:00 PM

Corn - The reversal up today will have some people thinking.  We rolled half of our options back to futures as soon as the market went up on the day cashing in about 4 cents on the switch.  I like this market longer term but am not will ing to be out of it right now just because I think it is too early.  We hold 40% and will move to 50% long if May trades over $2.37.  Corn doesn't make a double top.     

Bean - No change here.  Don't like it but I'm wildly bearish either.   On a sharp break we may buy some calls here for the possibly weather scare later even though there is a lot of beans in the world supply chain. 

Wheat - We went back long today but will not stay with it if we take out yesterday's low.  I like this market but the trade may need to try and work lower first. 

Rice - Follow through to the reversal of yesterday.  It looked like small volume but we'll check it first thing.  Open interest continues to rise.  If today the open interest dropped, then it will figure well into our ideas that the shorts will put the bottom in here.  It won't be new buying but sellers getting out.  Also remember, rice doesn't put in "V" bottoms so we think odds favor another break after a bounce and that is when we get long.  Should correspond better to the end of March as well.

Natural Gas - Market rallied sharply into the close here as options expired.  The most interesting point is that the volatility value shot up even as the action was counter trend.  Follow through to the upside tomorrow would be very interesting.  If the market sells right back off then all bets are off.    

Crude Oil -  Interesting day here as crude looks to be running out of sellers.  A move over $60.90 in April crude is a buy signal tomorrow. 

Wednesday February 22nd - 2:00 PM

Corn - The break we have been expecting is underway.  It should continue for awhile and it could last up to 4 weeks.  I'll be long more by then but for now we are happy right where we are.  This is why we moved over into options last Friday.  We bought at the money calls and today instead of losing 4 cents in long futures, we only lost 2 cents in the options.  I had my choice to stay with futures and sell out of the money calls or sell the futures and buy calls.  I chose the latter.  Now I will wait for this break to run its course and then sell puts.  And if I'm right on the buy side, then roll out of the calls and back into futures...OH I LOVE THIS GAME!!!!  Well, at least when I'm making money I love it!!

Nothing has changed for us as long term we are bullish but the real push is several months away.  Right now I want to get some of the position in place but not all so we are holding at 40% long and those positions are now all calls so with delta, I'm back down to 20% or so. 

Bean - What can I say I already haven't said.  We remain bearish to beans and with all the talk of more bird flu ahead, we aren't going anywhere in beans...just as we have said for months.  The bird thing will run its course i the next two months and we will have a weather market but near term, there is nothing bullish about beans.

Wheat - Well, as usual, I got out a little too soon but today's sell off is back where I got out on Friday.  The weekly chart is now showing a hook reversal down is possible for the week and the need for more correction to balance the books.  $3.68 in the May wheat is my current objective and I might sell some puts once there but I'll wait and see how and when it gets to that level.

Rice - Hook reversal up but just barley.  They market rallied into plus territory after being lower on the day but it didn't close near the highs which tells me the market needs to check the low today and see where the buying is at.  By the way, those are not the same thing.  The market is looking for the buyers and that could be right here, where the lows are , or into new lows.  PB is 38% on March so we are still pressing the down side.   I have sold most of my cash rice and to date have bought back 45% in the futures buy a little more again today.  I'm in no rush and I can see the market breaking to $7.80 in the March.  I'll be slowly buying back all the way down and then will begin legging this spread into November for the long haul.  That will be awhile as we want to see the planted acres number the end of March which, I think will be too high but it will be the number we need to trade.  NASS is terrible at predicting rice acres.  Always has been.

Natural Gas - The gas trader bulls didn't like today's action for sure.  Looks to me we have some people buying puts and buying futures which is the same as long calls but they don't have to spend all the time value for the call.  Smart guys.  I may do the same thing in the future as we hedge gas purchases.  We'll see how the market responds against the lows made here last week.  I said last night I didn't want to buy it and I don't unless we test the lows and start to rally.  That would indicate, the buying of puts is over and we are just in buy mode period.  The fundamentals don't agree with this happening anytime soon.  We'll keep watching it and we are still short some $7.00 puts in the July.

Crude Oil -  The sell off today confirms the volatility based on the supply of product in the United States.  Most think tomorrow will show increases in the supplies of crude and gasoline.  A nice sell off would be most appreciated.  This break is the one to buy but we need signs the break is really over and that hasn't happened yet.  I always like to see a bottom on bearish news.  In other words, a market going up right after it gets bearish news.  That is usually a good sign things are changing. 

Tuesday February 21st - 6:00 PM

Corn - This market tried to go lower with beans but the wheat held it up.  I still would like to see a break here to buy but I'm not getting out of long positions.  I think we may see one good break into March or April and that is the one to buy. 

Bean - We remain bearish here but not willing to trade it just yet.  Here is our point to all the grains right now...it is not you dad's grain market.  Look, if we had these grain fundamentals last year we would still be $1.90 corn and $5.20 beans.  Things have and are changing.  If you trade this market like it was last years or even the last 10 years market, you'll be on the outside looking in and a lot poorer. 

Wheat - We are out as we didn't want to ride through the weekend and see our profits disappear.  I should have bought the open but didn't.  Right now I see a correction coming but it could be in the next couple of days.  We will buy a break as I still see it higher.

Rice - OK...Open interest dropped by about 500 contracts last week which is nothing.  Funds have gone from long 4500 contracts to long 4175.  Commercials have decreased their position by 680 contracts and the small spec is down 325 contracts in his long position.  The difference is in the spreads.  This doesn't tell us much except why we were still  vulnerable to the break we had today.  March busted our support at $8.15 and that sets up a move to $8.00 and possibly to $9.00.  We are still 40% long but I must admit, I added 5% today, just because of the obvious "stop run" (when the run stops of course) and little follow through.  Yes the market made a new low but it did on the close as maybe some margin selling surfaced.  I want this market to go lower because I still have 55% more to buy and it is a timing thing for me.  With this break, we are see some of the farmers in Arkansas start talking less and less acres.  I hope that is true but it remains still early to get all bulled up here.  I'll buy the market again tomorrow if we dip under $8.30 in the March.  We will also be looking at the Open Interest in the morning to see if that "stop run" damaged the open interest level any. 

Natural Gas - The weekend news sent all energy complexes higher.  That is what happens when you are in he Geo-news world that we live in.  We were short puts and they have a nice profit tonight.  We will take them off if we are higher early tomorrow.  We are not ready to buy this one but again, there is a lot other factors than just the current inventory to push this one around. 

Crude Oil -  Well, we tried to give every notice that the market was set to bounce and IF news came out, it could be a big one...and it was!!!   If you traded short puts in this one, we would cash them in and wait for the market to settle down. 

DOW -  Now comes the real test of the 11,000 mark.  If we sink back below 11,000, we might see a nice break but I'm not convinced we will have a dramatic dip.  The news from the Fed is the same we have been saying for months.  The Fed will not stop at 4.5, which is where we are now.  A 5.0% fed rate is more like it before they stop and then I think it could creep up to 5.5% before its all said and done the middle of this year.

Friday February 17th - 2:00 PM

Corn - We head into the three day weekend with the market moving higher into the close.  News from the USDA forum being held in Washington confirms the USDA's opinion that acres will be down 1.5 million for corn and the carryover will drop by 40% or so to the 1.7 billion bushel mark.  Given a weather premium for corn between today and harvest, I would say we are fairly priced right now.  Wheat continues to push corn prices higher and the funds are no doubt getting longer.  Read our comments from Wednesday of this week below because the fund position must be watched as should that small spec position.  Look for a pull back in the next few days and the question will be where do we buy more.  We remain long 40% but today we took profit on our short puts and rolled some of the futures to calls because of an overbought condition that would indicate a high, possible short term high, is getting close and with a three day weekend, we could come in Tuesday 3 cents in either direction. We are just managing our position and taking some profit off the table based on our technical indicators.  We will not stay on options long but will let the market tell us when to roll back into futures. 

Bean - The fundamentals are bearish here and getting more so.  The USDA forum indicates carryover's at the end of this coming crop year (as of July 2007) over 550 million bushels.  That cannot possibly support $6.00 beans given the world situation.  Here again, it is not the fundamentals driving the market it is the traders who are buying it.  Tonight's COT report will be very interesting.  We remain out of this market looking for a place to short it but we are not anxious to do that.

Wheat - We took profits today in wheat as we are now way over bought and didn't want to face the three day weekend.  Not a bad trade as we rode almost the whole way from low to high of the last three days.  PB is at 73% on the 120 minute chart which is not a major point of selling so there is more possible in the wheat early next week.  Longer term I like the wheat as much as 20 cents higher tonight's close.   I'd like to see a correction to buy it again like we had this week. 

Rice - Last night I predicted Open Interest down 500 contracts from yesterday...WRONG!!!  In the trade yesterday, we say open interest go up 600 contracts.  I doubt that the COT report shows much change as the funds remain long and the commercial short.  Even so, we are at a level where the cash will support and first looks at Arkansas acres are down 250,000 in the long grain.  This number needs to hold.  I'd be glad for this market to stay put for another 30 to 45 days but think of this.  The commercials cannot be liking the prospects of their long term prices for rice.  Right now they are the short in the market.  If they let the price move too much lower, they are going to start cutting off their own tail.  They have time but guys...it is running out!!!  We will buy this break with support in May at $8.40 and then at $8.15 and we are not getting out of our current long positions.

Natural Gas -

Nothing to note here.  We started higher with the oversold condition but didn't follow through.  We did make new highs from yesterday and that raised PB from 38% to 44% on the short term indicators.  Read Crude Oil below as the correction there has really accomplished a balance from the indicators.  We will buy this break but are not convinced we won't have one more push into new lows.  We think the next three weeks provides a big chance of a major low but it could be 4 to 6 weeks.  We will sell more puts on a lower move.

Crude Oil -  PB as of the close last night on the 120 minute chart was 10.8%. As of the close tonight, it's up to 30%.  That is a nice balance of the indicator.  Next week we will watch to see if we resume the down trend or we try and consolidate for awhile.  OPEC may lower production in the future as we are hearing rumors of that but then again, $58 oil is considered a perfect price even by OPEC. 

DOW -  I like that we are holding above the 11,000 level for so many days.  Looks like we will push higher and test the 11,200 market in the next week or so. 

Thursday February 16th - 5:30 PM

Corn - If you didn't read last night's comments, stop and do that right now.  Nothing has changed so now we will see the extent of the current rally.  It looks like wheat is the main support here at this level but prices are struggling in corn to move higher.   We didn't do anything new today. 

Bean - Still nothing...kind of a boring day again.

Wheat - We remain long wheat and look for it to work higher but expect some back and fill.  Open interest was up yesterday and the funds appear to be buying more.  By the way, Open interest is up only 6,000 contracts over the last seven days and if we attribute all of that to funds, they are no long only 3,000 contracts.  With options about 12,000 so we could have another push in the next few weeks if the funds see weather and production losses coming together.

Rice - Open Interest is down to just over 12,000 coming in this morning.  We probably lost another 500 or so today.  That would put us at 11,500 down from 13,000 last week.  Another 10% reduction is possible without some bullish news.  We want to buy this break but will let it tell us when to jump in.

Natural Gas - Please read last nights comments as they hold true today.  The market was up a little with bearish gas data out.  Crude bounced, just as forecast right here two night's ago saying that "a bounce was eminent."  That signal is dynamite but it doesn't tell you where to get in, just that it's about to happen.  The great thing is, it's ALL MINE!!!

I cannot emphasis enough that the funds are short here...that is not the case in Crude.  A low in the next few weeks is likely and will be counter to the fundamentals.  If there is 6 week lag in the fundamentals to futures, which I am not saying there is...the fundamentals are several weeks from turning at best. 

Crude Oil -  As indicated and written about here, we bounced big in crude.  The indicators have not dropped in "trend ending" territory but the low today may indeed be the low for awhile.  I wouldn't be surprised if we see a test of the lows but at the same time, we may see the back months move lower while the fronts hold.  Bull spreading should be popular in the next few weeks. 

DOW - More upside as new highs are made since 2000 and more and more traders are thinking about jumping on board.  I'm one of them.  If we sit above the 11,000 level for another two days, we will have some soul searching to do.

Wednesday February 15th - 2:30 PM

Corn - The market bounced off the 21 day moving average and then made new highs for the week going into the close.  The market seems to go up stronger than it can break which is a positive sign.  We had hoped for $2.25 in May corn but didn't get it.  We remain long 40% and we have now sold some July $2.30 puts to give us a little cushion on another 20% buy in.  We'll see how the market follows through tomorrow. 

Selling has been increasing on rallies as you would expect with the current inventory.  Again I point out the COT numbers.  Granted it's an old number now but the open interest has not changed enough in 6 trading days to resolve the issue.  The Commercials are not short this market...it is the small specs.  The big funds are long so when you see a day like today, you can just feel the funds over powering the small specs.  Remember, if the commercial buys, then he sold something in the cash (export, feeder, processor...)  ...if he sells futures, he bought something in the cash market (from the producer).   The fact that the Commercials has no major net position position here says he is balanced in his purchases and sales.  Think about it...we have the largest carryover in years and years and the commercials is not a huge short???  Incredible!!!  In fact, as of last report he was long 549,000 contracts and short 570,000 contracts.  That is pretty much balanced. 

All of that stuff is to point out that the small spec will be forced to either sell more futures to supply the funds with their demand for contracts OR the farmer must sell more than the Commercial is selling on the other side.  That doesn't appear to be happening yet.  The market has indeed changed levels of support and odds are not high for us to ever see $2.15 again in the March futures.  If it wasn't the middle of February, I'd be screaming to buy more but dang it...it is the middle of February!!! 

Bean - After making a new low for the week and taking out last weeks low, the market reversed with a massive key reversal up even though we only closed 2 cents higher on the day.  No doubt the funds came for it.  We are not big fans of beans but I doubt it can break much if the funds just keep throwing dollars at it. 

Wheat - Well, I now have to comment of wheat because as of today, I'm long here.  Today appears to be the end of short term correction in a longer term bull market.  Wheat is in a totally different situation than corn and beans as we know the crop is in trouble and the world situation is not going to halt the current advance at this level.  I put on 40% of my bas position here today and its not too late to add more.  I have no upside projection right now but should have one in the next two days.  I'll lighten up if we take out today's low in May Chicago wheat. 

Rice - Market started slow today and then turned on selling pressure into mid-day.  The market went lower but couldn't extend selling and finished just a couple higher.  Well hey...it wasn't down on the day!!!   Its all down to acres in my book.  The increase in costs for shipping and world production costs over seas are in their prices as I see it so now its the US carryover that matters.  Acres in long grain need to be down about 250,000 acres.

Natural Gas - Last night we wrote this...."$7.00 is holding in March but I expect another good test and a good chance it will be taken out."  Today's low was $6.98....OK, so I didn't predict the Texas Lottery number (I can't get one of them right much less all six of them).  This market has a lot of people over thinking the issues and I'll be the first to admit, I'm one them.  Here is what I know...we have 12% more crude oil right now than the last 5 year's average.  Prices are off 17% and the funds, who were long as of last Friday's report by 54,000 contracts are selling everything in sight.  Stocks up 4 million barrels today verses the trade guessing 1 million barrels.  We should be down in the crude contract and we were...meanwhile natural gas, whose numbers come out tomorrow, was off a whole 2 cents.  The funds are already huge shorts in the gas contract and who is out there that doesn't know we have had a mild winter and the supplies of energy are all much higher than normal.  While I am not buying this market I'm just over thinking what happens if something occurs to cause a flip?   I am short 1 July $7.00 "put" and wishing I would have waited three days to do and for now, I don't want to do anything else.  I just think the downside of the market is starting to be limited. 

Crude Oil -  Last night I wrote this..."Will $58 hold April crude?  Well, it depends on when we get there.  If it's tomorrow, yep...it will hold."  With the huge rise in crude inventory, the market almost tested the $58 mark.  We are down $1.78.  PB is at 11% on the 120 minute chart which I have seen it at 9% before.  The daily PB number is at 28%.  While a low is likely in the next few days, it may not be tomorrow and the $58 level may not hold this market on the next test.  $56.00 is looking like a possibility for April crude. 

DOW - We are holding over 11,000.  We remain in cash however and are glad not to be trading the Dow outright.  If I did trade it, I would be long here thinking 11,200 could be achieved.  Remember, the all time high is over 11,400 (11,423 to be exact).  The consumer numbers of this week have us thinking the current expansion will continue for several more months.  Is a recession coming?  Yep!!!  But it has been postponed for awhile.  Lets see how the Fed responds to the current out look.  BY the way, the dollar will stay strong near term based on these new numbers.  Longer term, it's going to break but it may be a year before we see the big drop we are looking for. 

Tuesday February 14th - 2:30 PM

Corn - More fund liquidation today.  Open interest dropped only 3,000 contracts yesterday so there can be more fund selling ahead.  We still want to buy this break.  PB stands at 57% so it remains plus but I wouldn't be surprised for the market to go a little sideways near term.  A move to $2.15 in March is possible and I will be buying it.  As we have been saying, long term we like it a lot.  Near term, it's just too early to go a lot higher.  Wheat will be the key near term to corn as it seems they are married right now to each other.  Today's action may indicate a bounce coming in wheat.

Bean - Slow day today.  Last nights comments still hold.

Rice - WMP - Up 15 cents...  Warning!!  Warning!!!!  That is what the USDA screamed at us today.  If you have rice in loan, you had better payoff that loan NOW or you will be paying interest starting next week.  I still see the market higher long term but we don't want it to go higher right now.  This price change may get some people buying it again especially with PB at 44% but the funds are still in here long and they have not sold very much.  If they come buying tomorrow, the commercials (who are the shorts) will have to defend their short position. 

While we are bullish long term, it totally depends on planted acres.  I'm already hearing that some Texas farmers are reconsidering planting more than they first thought.  If that is happening in Texas, think about some other states.  I've been saying it, "rice acres in the US for 2006 will only go up from here".  More farmers are looking and hearing higher prices and they want to plant more.  If we only drop 200,000 acres for Long-grain in the US, that is 12 million cwt. but based on usage, it would decrease the carryover by only about 8 million cwt or keep ending stocks at around 12 million cwt.  That would forecast a move to the $10.00 range maybe.  We are already at the $9.20 level basis March of 2007 (storage added to November).   We need less acres not more so a break here is not a bad thing.   Keep you eye on Natural Gas.

Natural Gas - PB is at 31% today.  $7.00 is holding in March but I expect another good test and a good chance it will be taken out.  Then what???  We still have a few weeks to go but we think odds favor a low coming in the next 4 to 5 weeks and could occur at any time.  Remember, the funds are now net short and adding daily.  Fundamentals are really bearish and who doesn't know we have had a mild winter.  When this thing turns, it will be vicious. 

Crude Oil -  Will $58 hold April crude?  Well, it depends on when we get there.  If it's tomorrow, yep...it will hold.  If it's next week, I'm not so sure.  Technically, major support is at $58.00 but at $61.00 we are getting way oversold in the short term models.  The 120 minute chart shows PB at 16% compared to 35% for Natural Gas on the same chart.  I am looking for buy here in the next two days for a corrective bounce.  I might sell a put in July short term. 

Cattle - We mentioned last night that we were oversold in cattle.  The market bounced a little today but not much.   PB remains at 24% so a higher move tomorrow could indicate a short term low.  For specs, a rally probably should be sold as we see the market working lower over the next few months but longer term we want to own cash cattle.   

DOW - OK...I didn't see this coming.  January sales were up 2.2% indicating that the consumer remains in control and their credit cards are out.  It also means, the Fed is not going to stop tightening the reigns anytime soon.  Look for this reality to start coming home to roost in the next few days as the new Fed chairman testifies on the hill.  I mentioned a few weeks back that we could push over 11,000 again but then what?  The next few days (maybe the rest of today) will be interesting.

Dollar - The dollar reversed today after starting higher on the sales numbers.  This could get interesting.  I like the dollar from the short side but still have no reason to sell it.  If there is follow through tomorrow, then we could get interested but longer term I am waiting for a BIG day.  I mean a BIG day.  One way or the other.  That is where the dollar tells us its direction and it may not happen for months. 

Monday February 13th - 2:30 PM

Corn - Market is pausing and that is a good thing.  We picked up over the weekend that USDA officials are suggesting corn acres will drop only 1 1/2 million acres.  That is also a good thing because the number can only go up from here.  We still think 3 million is more likely but the higher prices go now the less likely that we will plant under 80 million acres in 2006.  The action today was more consolidation than anything as we didn't make new lows after the first 30 minutes but still finished lower on the day.  Wheat did make new lows in the day but didn't trade that much lower through the day.    

Bean - Higher today for the whole day maybe on ideas that bean acres aren't going to be that much higher.  Who knows???  It is too early to know where the acreage is going to come in at and then we have the weather to talk about.  Here is what we do know, the risk to the down side in beans is 60 to 80 cents and the upside is $5.00 between now and November.  There is no reason to be short and no reason to be long right now either so we stay as we have been for months...out of the market waiting on planted acres to be known. 

Rice - Read last Friday's comments. Nothing has changed except today's close is below the 9 week moving average.  PB has already gone short with today's number standing at 45%.  It is possible that we are going to work lower and see if we can't run out some of the 13,000 contracts that are currently in open interest.  Here is the breakdown.  Specs are long 2300 contracts and funds are long 4700.  Guess where the commercials are.  You got it.  They are short over 7,000 contracts.  Remember, these are net positions.  For instance, there are 3,000 long commercial positions against 10,000 short so there is a net of 7,000 short.

If the commercials can get the funds to start selling then they can buy back their shorts and ring the register.  That is why we always talk about trading the "traders" not just fundamentals.  We'll see if the funds can be pushed out now that the 9 week average has been broken.  On a solid break here we want to own more rice but options may be the way to go on this next down draft IF it occurs.     

Natural Gas - March Gas is approaching the $7.00 mark which is a long market price level.  Looking at just the fundamentals, the market is still setup as bearish but we are heading into a season low period of time.  I am not hanging all my hats on a normal seasonal low in 2006 as things are anything but normal; however, seasonal tendencies cannot be ignored and if a low occurs here, it could be a major one.  Just remember, a hurricane is coming!!!   It may be 6 months off but it is coming and the gas market isn't going to forget 2005.  I do not want to be caught flat footed when the lows are made here.  It may be the last part of March but it is coming.

Cattle - Cattle broke solidly today and setup a test of $88 in April.  I like the market to work lower and for cash buyers, they should wait and see what happens in the market near term.  PB is at 24% so we think the low is coming fairly soon and we want to own cash cattle on the break as long term we cash cattle as profitable into 2008. 

DOW - No real direction in a quiet shiftless market.  I still see a slowing economy and the market has to deal with lower profit lines and a consumer who will drop their spending over the next few months.  We will buy breaks.

Dollar - Nothing here.  Long term I like the dollar lower but the idea that the Fed is going to keep raising rates for a few more meetings will keep the dollar supported. 

Friday February 10th - 4:30 PM

Corn - The COT report shows a huge fund long position and the small spec is on the other side with an incredible number of sold contracts.  103,000 to be exact.  That is really a big short.  If the funds lean on this more, they will run the small specs for coverage.  The commercials are  slick.  This is going to be something to watch.  For us, we want to see if there is not more of a correction before buying.  As we have been saying (or writing), it is very early to be starting a major bull market but if we are, it will be a big one. 

Bean - No change in our ideas here.  It is not going anywhere.  We've been thinking for sometime, corn is going to take over the excitement between these two markets.

Rice - Well, the break today was below the 9 week moving average but it didn't close below it.  Long term we like it, near term it could do anything.  I wouldn't put all my eggs in one basket just yet so we are still only.  40% long is the most I would be here as I just can't get a major long on this early.  If we get another push higher over the next 3 weeks and we buy back in 100,000 acres or so, the fundamentals are not going to change that much.  Right now, we see the acres down 300,000 acres for long grain.  That is 19 million cwts and we have a 19 million carryover...do the math.  If we bring back in 100,000 acres, then we are looking at a carryover of 6 to 8 million cwt which would still support close to $10.00 on a minimum and I can certainly argue higher; however, with November at $9.00, July 2007 should be about $9.80.  With the uncertainty of acres, we are fairly priced in the new crop.  Bottom line, tell me the acres and I'll tell give you a price projection. 

Natural Gas - Due to our computer problems, I'll have more on this late tonight.

Cattle - Due to our computer problems, I'll have more on this late tonight.

DOW - Due to our computer problems, I'll have more on this late tonight.

Dollar - Due to our computer problems, I'll have more on this late tonight.

Thursday February 9th - 10:30 PM  -

Comment - Reading comments after today's trade is reading a whole lot of nothing.  Here is the truth, there is plenty of corn...right now!!!   Will there be in 10 months???  How would I know??  No one knows.  What we do know is higher costs and greater demand for corn is going to keep support under the market.  I will buy another break as we set tonight only 40% long.  Tough market.  Are we long too early??  Well, if you have been following our advise you have a nice profit in what you have so that says we are all right at this point.  I just have a hard time thinking we could take the markets a lot higher just yet so we'll stay where we are and hope the market gives us a good chance to get on board.  One more thing...watch Natural Gas...if it starts to make a low...the grains will have increased odds of moving higher with it.  Odds favor a low in the next four weeks that could be a major low.

Thursday February 9th - 12:30 AM  - Early update - more later tonight

Corn - The report was a big nothing but all the talk about corn and acres and ethanol got the funds involved and the market took off.  Farmers then reminded the market they had plenty of corn for sale and the rally stalled.  The selling has dried up as I write this and we remain a couple of cents higher.  Anyone who reads this knows we are bullish corn and long in the market.  Are we too early to be long?  What a great question!!!  I'll let you think about that until later tonight.

Bean - I still don't like the beans but traders love them.  The supply is too great unless there is weather problems later this year.  I'm staying away from them for now but there is a trading strategy that will work.  Buy against support and sell against resistance.  We are sideways for awhile. 

Rice - Nice break here.  Just like the corn, we want to own rice for the long-term but near term, we still have plenty of rice around.  We are down 20 cents right now and that's where we wanted to add; however, we need to see how the market trades here for a little longer.  We are in the buy zone but this assumes there is no correction coming near term and I'm not ready to presume that. 

Natural Gas - Read last nights comments...that is where we really are right now and nothing has changed...YET!!!

Cattle - Not much movement today.  I like buy cash if I can get a break.  Longer term, I still see owning cattle as the way to go.  By the way...I do mean owning cattle.  Not owning futures...at least not yet.

DOW - Market continues to grind away as the talking heads push for the market to go higher still.  I just don't see the fundamentals as that supportive but remember, we trade the traders not the fundamentals in this market.  I look for more back and forth near term,

Dollar - No change...

Thursday February 9th - 8:30 AM 

Comment -    Absolutely nothing in the way of a surprise in this morning report.  They did lower carryover for corn as expected but all numbers appear to be in the traders expected range and almost dead on.  Could be an interesting day to see how the market responds to no directive news in the report.

Wednesday February 8th - 3:30 PM 

Comment -    We will have details of the USDA report here at 8:30 AM tomorrow morning.

Corn - We came in this morning prepared to buy corn if it was down 2 cents.  When it didn't open down with any power and then started up on the day, we jumped in and are now 40% long on our buy back position.  Tomorrow's USDA report will be very interesting.  Average guesses still peg carryover at 2.38 billion bushels.  That is a big number, its also the highest one we will probably see for another 2 or 3 years if not longer.

Here is the point...Natural Gas is about to make a low and if farmers think fertilizer prices are going to keep on dropping, I think they are dead wrong.  Acres will be lower in corn and usage is going to soar.  I am saying now that we will see December corn with a $3.00 handle (first number will be 3) before it goes off the board.  It closed at $2.56 today.  After the report, we'll use a sell off to sell some puts and buy futures.  We are not going to get crazy right here because it is still February.  Its the long term we are looking at.

Bean - I don't know what to write about beans I haven't already written.  Where is it going?  UP, not very far if acres are up big.  World supply is growing and demand is steady.  Costs of production favor it over corn especially on marginal ground.  We'll look for help in the report tomorrow...who knows, maybe there is something out there that we don't know.  For now, I'm not trading it.

Rice - Market fell off today after rallying on the WMP increase last night of 11 cents.  We were higher but not by much.  The report tomorrow will probably not show any big changes.  As in corn, its the long term that is bullish.  The world situation will be watched closely in the report tomorrow.

Natural Gas - April gas closed below $8.00 as the whole energy complex was in trouble.  I expect gas inventory to be bearish again tomorrow so or now, no reason to get into a long position; however, I have my finger on the trigger.  The July $7 put is attractive but I see some other things I might want to do.  Remember, the first thing to do in shifting to a long position, is let the market get too far oversold and then sell Puts.  Buy calls on a chart reversal and if we take out the trend line...buy futures.  For now, we'll wait for the reason to sell some Puts.  PB is 39% so we are not there yet or at least we don't appear to be there.  We are watching and waiting.

Cattle - A little higher today but no sign of a low on the charts.  We are happy to see cattle prices down a bit more.  Cash prices are not falling in the utility cattle market at all. 

DOW - Nice move up today led by the bulls on the street.  We are trading the traders here more than fundamentals.  We like the market long term but see more risk near term as the the US economy flirts with a recession.

Dollar - No change...we are not trading here looking for a good sign to sell the dollar.  That usually occurs on an extraordinarily high volume day with a major price change.  Could happen anytime.

Wednesday February 8th - 1:30 PM 

Comment - Last night there was no update as I spoke at a local county rice clinic.  Today, we have computer problems so I'm early with this one and will have another one later this afternoon. 

Corn - We bought the break in corn as we said we would do and raised our long position to 40%.  There is a major S&D report from Uncle Sam tomorrow morning and I doubt it's very bearish.  It may not be bullish either.  We will hold where we are through the report... more later this afternoon.

Bean - No change here...we don't want to own it.

Rice - WMP up 11 cents.  As we have been saying, the LDP is about gone and will be by April 15th.  More on this after the close, later today....

Natural Gas - Later today....

Cattle - Later today....

DOW - Later today....

Dollar - Later today....

Monday February 6th - 6:30 PM 

Corn - The action sets up a test of $2.20 in March.  A chance of selling near term would be welcome.  We'll watch and see what the market gives us.  Some farmers who are holding a lot of corn may hit the cash register near term and that will cause the market to correct.  We'll buy the break.

Bean - No change here...we don't want to own it.

Rice - New highs didn't hold so maybe we'll see a break here too that we can own.  We have buy levels about 20 cents lower than the closes today.

Natural Gas - As we said last night, it is still not time to own this market.  The selling pressure today is very welcome.  Just remember, the market is headed for season lows in the next 6 weeks.

Cattle - Nothing new.  We'll wait for a reason to buy.  Could come fairly soon if corn breaks a little more.

DOW - Dull day.  We are hoping for more downside action to own some sectors for the long haul. 

Dollar - Nothing new.  We remain bearish.

Friday February 3rd - 2:00 PM 

Corn - As we said last night, the action shows we are changing plateaus.  $2.20 now becomes major support and a level we will need to start thinking about buying an any break.  We remain 20% long on buy backs but will now feel comfortable buying any breaks.  This is the time to start thinking of the long run especially when the acreage number is so up in the air. PB rose to 70% today indicating the move is underway.  It will take an 80% number to tell us we are overbought so any break here near term we will buy.  

Bean - Beans moved higher as well but any rally here needs to be sold longer term.  I can see another 30 to 50 cents up with the wheat and corn but then what???  Acres are not going to be friendly here. 

Rice - We are moving to 40% long NOW in rice.  Any break we will buy and what we are calling a break is 2% or 16 cents.  I expect WMP higher next week and also I would expect new highs for the March contract next week.  I hope I'm wrong so I can get more coverage on.

Natural Gas - Rally today but the market didn't do any major reversal action.  A close over $9.00 will be bullish but I still don't want to trade it just yet.  Fundamentals are bearish and specs could see their way to exit more positions if we can test or make new lows for this move.

Cattle - A close n the magical window of 88 to 90 for the April.  I am not buying but this move down has been a good one and we are starting to look for a reason to buy fats.  It may not happen for awhile.

DOW - Nice employment stats but the market saw the numbers as inflationary.  I said last night, "If we are sharply lower look out below".  Was today sharp enough???  I don't know but I like the market lower near term; however, another push higher is not at all out of the questions.  I think later in February, things will start to look a little worse. 

Dollar - I want to sell this rally.  I remain bearish longer-term. 

Thursday February 2nd - 6:00 PM 

Corn - So much for a break.  Dang it!!!  We had hopes of a test of the $2.14 level in March but today's action shows continued buying on breaks by the big boys.  The action today was related to move in wheat.  A second close over $2.20 is gong to make me nervous and I'll probably jump coverage to a higher level. 

Bean - Beans moved higher too but not that excitingly.  I'm like most people, acres are going to higher here and maybe sharply higher.

Rice - As we have been saying, buy ANY break.  Longer term there is a lot of things that could affect the rice market.  Dry conditions in Arkansas is being talked down by as there has been good rains recently but my gosh, this is February.  There had better be a lot more rain to add any supply to the crop.  Also, Thailand prices are moving higher.  I can only repeat what I've been saying, buy breaks here and right now you should be at least 20% long. 

Natural Gas - Go baby go...we like this break and want to look at selling some puts very soon.  I will not put the recommendation on here until I've done it for my phone and market watch subscribers.  We have some good target levels and I think they will be hit.

Cattle - We broke under $90 today in April and that was are target.  The close was still lower for the day so there was no reversal.  remember, cattle likes to "V" bottom but we might have a little time yet for that to happen.

DOW - It is getting very volatile in here.  If we are sharply lower tomorrow, look out below.  We remain bearish near term and bullish long term.

Dollar - I want to sell a rally.  I'm bearish here. 

Wednesday February 1st - 3:00 PM 

Corn - A break at last.  Funds have been buying but they may slow off or even sell out now that it looks like a close over $2.20 is not going to happen this time around.  We want to buy the break but are looking at $2.14 as the first place to buy.  I doubt $2.08 can be reached but who knows.  If the weather really has turned bearish in South America, we could see a good round of selling from some of the funds and farmers who need cash for planting over the next two months.  In any event, we want to own this break.

Bean - Signal received in beans which indicates lower prices ahead.  I'm not sure we have heard the last of South America as far as weather is concerned but I don't want to own beans.  That has not changed.

Rice - Well...we have a two day break going on here and that usually means buy it early on the third day down.  If we start lower tomorrow, we may wade in and see if we don't have "turn around Thursday".  You know the odds of a turn around day in rice on Thursday???  The same as any other day...1 in 5 ...I know, dumb answer!!!  Or maybe it was the question...why did you ask???

OK, back to the real world.  We see the cash market not breaking here so the question is what is the current basis and how high can it get?  We have a 30 cent basis tonight and it could get to 50 so another 20 cents down is possible.  I'll buy more before we see $8.20 in March. 

Natural Gas - For us guys needing this market to head lower, today's action was just what we wanted to see.  As I have been saying, I look for this market to continue lower into mid to late February.  I know more and more people are saying this move will continue all the way into the summer but I doubt it.  I'm hoping for a nice market slide to give us a chance to get some coverage.

Cattle - Nothing new, we'll take a look at cattle as it approaches 90 cents, which is not that far away.  Long term we want to own more in the field as we still see a black line for cattle the next two years. 

DOW - I think I wrote last week we could see another shot at 11,000 and a close over this level may indicate enough economic action to move even higher; however, time is running out on securities.  Remember, we are not really trading security fundamentals, we are trading Fund traders and their money supply.  Over this year, I expect to see GDP to head into negative territory...no one is saying that out loud but there is a constant murmur.  I'm not wanting to own this one right now but wouldn't be short either.  ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds) are a nice way to go.   

Dollar - Nothing new...we will sell a nice rally.