Wednesday February 28th -

Corn - Nice bounce back today as the market sets up what I call, "Sampson syndrome."   The rally today was a trend day but it only rallied back to its logical resistance point.  Tomorrow will be interesting to see if we can muster a higher move.  We want to reiterate our recommendations.  If you didn't anything sold, there is your chance.  While I still see it higher, we are glad to take some of this move and put it into our pockets. 

Wheat – Market came back a little but it is still looking like a short term top as well.  We want to give it some time.

Beans – Same as above, we are 25% sold and looking for another place to sell so we can get to 50% sold, especially for producers with large acres and high leverage. 

Rice – What can I say.  Market came right back all of its downside yesterday.  Maybe we are ready to move higher but I think the acres report will stop any advance or sell off right now. 

Natural Gas - Market moved on lower.  We are looking for $7.10 near term in the April.

Cattle – Down a little today as the market watched the Dow.  Right now, the financial market may have more to do with the price movement then the corn price. 

Dow - Today's bounce is not good news as we didn't get much of a correction at all.  Tomorrow, if we take out Tuesday's low, look out for a more sharp move to the downside. 

Cotton - A little higher today but on no real news.  I am looking for signs of a sideways range building and give it 60-40 odds right now.  Still not trading it. 

Tuesday February 27th -

Corn - Read last night and our recommendations page as we sold the market big last night and into this morning.  You should have gotten it sold no worse then down 4 cents from last night if you used futures or cash sales early this morning.  We are now short the calls and have a real nice profit there after taking off the futures at a nice profit going into the close yesterday.  How did I see it coming?  Yesterday the market had bullish news and reacted with a key reversal down.  It wasn't rocket science it was just saying, enough is enough, this action says sell and we did.

We are not through as we still have half the old crop to go and almost all of the new crop.  For now, we will wait on the sidelines and see where support really is in the May and July contracts. Once I see support, we will either come back in and buy futures or sell those calls.  Time will tell. 

Wheat – You should have sold last night or this morning based on our sales recommendations last night.  We finished off 12 cents but I doubt that wheat is finished longer term.  For now, we stand by our recommendations and will stay where we are.

Beans – We sold 25% of our 2007 crop last night and into this morning and you should have had no trouble getting that sold at sharply higher levels than where we closed.  No changes.

Rice – Same thing as I said last night, the main force in the market right now remains the spreads.  No change in our opinion.  A look at the Dow and one can see that a lot of people got nervous today and the funds headed for the exits.  I remain short the $10 and $10.20 puts in May and long 50% in futures in the new crop.  We could see more of a correction near term but I don't think the sky is falling at all. 

By the way...remember our spread trade rolling out of March into September for 66 cents on average??  Well the spread tonight is out to 85 1/2 cents.  90 cents is the target but I may start rolling back toward May at some point but probably not until after a couple of days of deliveries.  We will continue to watch the spread for a reason to re-enter the old crop.

Natural Gas - We sold off rather big as the other markets caved in.  Look for more downward pressure here as we wait for the smoke to clear or should I say the valves to close off.

Cattle – Market lower early with corn but they held at the close; however, the Dow wasn't down 415 points when cattle closed.  Look for downward pressure tomorrow if the Dow is down early in the morning. 

Dow - Down 415 points or 3.3% in one day.  In fact, today's range took out the lows for 2007 and we traded lower then we have traded since November and here is the thing, the market was down 550 points at one point.  Is it over for the market near term.  Probably; however, this market has a lot of nasty habits and coming back strong after a major correction like this is one of them. 

Lets Talk:  We have not owned the Dow in months believing new highs would occur and that a recession would occur later in 2007.  I said that MONTHS AGO!!!  Nothing has changed in our long term outlook but there was no sign, until today, that a strong correction was close to happening.  Now its here and the question is can the market shake off the big break and come storming back.  I don't know and won't make a prediction but tomorrow, I will be trading the Dow futures.  That I guarantee. 

Cotton - Market gaped lower today and proved our suspicions that 56 cents was just too far our of range right now in the July.  We are not trading cotton but do think the lows are in for a while.  Look for a sideways trading range to develop unless there is more news of cotton acres moving to grain.  If you put a gun to my head and said, "trade it", I 'd say..."pull the dang trigger." 

Monday February 26th -

Corn - SELL RECOMMENDATIONS TONIGHT!!!

There comes a time when the risk is compressed into too short of a time period and we need to remove some of it.  That is the situation tonight.  Today was a massive key reversal down in May corn and while I can still see it higher, this leg is probably over so we want to get to 33% sold in OLD crop NOW!!!  If you are already at that level or willing to use futures, get to 50% sold in OLD crop NOW!!!  This should be moved in 30 days.  Basis is down a bit but that is OK, the market has given us so much it is time to take some of the profits off the table.

In the new crop.  Depending on your size of operation, get to 10% sold now and 20% if you are going to use options.  We are not going to sell much here as we still see a real possibility of getting a lot higher but we want to get our toes in the water based on tonight's conditions.  If you use futures, sell December not September.  IF you use options, buy the $4.00 put and sell the $3.60 put against it.  This should protect you for about 20 cents or down to $4.00 in December.

What has changed???  Today's action is bearish.  We took off long May futures today but stayed short the May calls and will see if we can ride them for a couple of days to make sure we are at an intermediate top. 

Now you know why we sold calls when we put on the position.  It was just for a day like today.  We need to see follow through tomorrow and if we get it, it could mean a "large" correction is about to happen.    In fact, if we see follow through selling tomorrow and large liquidation start soon, then today's high maybe the high until after the planting report.  How's that for sticking my neck out???  Coming in today, the COT showed the funds short 350,000 contracts.  That is like 16% of the whole US corn crop.  Also, the rally of the last few days has been on weather....summer weather!!!  It's February for goodness sakes.  It is time to take some profits and get some sales on the books especially old crop.  Our patience has paid off, lets get it!!! 

Wheat – Key reversal down today sets up an intermediate top here as well but the fundamentals are not as "toppy" as the corn.  Even so, get to 25% sold in wheat NOW and lets take some of this gain off the table.  If you can use futures. get to 33% sold. 

Beans – Japan bought beans and that kept the market from reversing here as well but I don't like the beans here.  New crop bean producers, it is time to get some prices locked in especially if you can use futures later.  Sell 25% of your beans NOW for the 2007 crop and all of old crop should be sold by now.

Rice – The main force in the market right now remains the spreads.  No change in our opinion.

Natural Gas - A key reversal down in April gas today as the market is holding at the levels of the past week.  If we sell off tomorrow and close below today's low, we should accelerate lower into the $7.15 level.  That is where we look to find support near term. 

Cattle – Bullish cattle on feed report Friday allowed for the rally today just as we expected.  Lets see if we can get another day higher if corn falls further.

Cotton - Correction continues as the market drives to correct the oversold condition.  Our system says 56 cents is possible in the July but the oversold condition is correcting itself and we could end up a little shy of that mark.  We'll see how things go the rest of this week.  Again, we are not trading cotton but he market has come to life in the last few days and this could mean some major changes in fundamentals are coming. 

Friday February 23rd -

Corn - As I said last night, we should start consolidation and that is what happened today.  We had an inside day with the market's high and low within yesterday's high and low.  Monday could see more consolidation or if the market has gotten real nervous about weather, we might see another push higher.  In general, we still it see it higher but a good round of profit taking is not at all out of the question.  The only thing is...when???   

Wheat – Market pulled back with the corn as profit taking was the feature here as well.  Certainly no sign of a top.

Beans – Just as we predicted last night, we got a pull back today in the beans.  I sold beans last night in the spec account and bought them right back in for the close today.  The correction of 6 cents isn't much so next week, Monday will be interesting.  We remain friendly here for another few weeks as more and more traders think we are buying huge corn acres from beans.  I still doubt it but what do I know.   We want to sell this in the future but we'll wait for more news on possible plantings first.

Rice – The old-new crop spread came right back to 82 cents as of the close tonight so our short spread decision is again working.  I keep talking about this because that is what we are trading in rice right now....spreads.  Look for March/Sep to move out toward 90 cents.  The new crop could pull back another 20 cents in the process but with beans where they are and not coming down, acre shifts should be occurring in rice.  One more thing, what ever this play is on the spread, I think it will end before the March WASDE report so be ready to roll back into July. 

Natural Gas - Basically no change as the market waits for more weather results.  There is another round of cold air coming but it won't hold long and the amount of gas to be used will be much less then the last couple of week.  Even so, the rest of the energy complex has a bullish tilt to it and while 61.00 crude has some resistance, there is enough concern out there on other issues it may be hard to break the energy complex at all until things settle down a bit more.  For us, we want to buy a break and think a fundamental break is coming but I don't think it will last too long.  We will be aggressive buyers on a break into the end of February. 

Cattle – Bullish cattle on feed report today should keep the cattle working higher.  The placements were way down which is a direct result of higher feed costs which should propel cattle prices higher to fill the lots back up toward the 90% level.  This is exactly what we talked about the last week or so when we wrote about the inversion of the cattle/feed market.  Prices of feed are going higher and so are cattle prices which is backwards to the norm.

Cotton - YES COTTON!!!!   The last two days has seen a good short covering rally start on cotton that indicates the downward spiral has ended.  That doesn't mean its going up but it does mean we may have stopped going down.  I am looking for a sideways trading range to develop here with the current lows holding near term. 

Wednesday February 21st -

Corn - Up up and away...  Spec lead buying and the fact that no one wants to be short found little overhead resistance.  Market finished in 10 year highs up 10 cents and little selling even at the close.  We remain long everywhere but especially in the cash.  I know you might be nervous and remember, there will be days when the market goes in the other direction but for now, the time is not right and technical picture agrees with this market moving higher. 

For you in the position of long the May futures and short the $4.40 Calls, they are working just as we had hoped and we want to hold where we are for now.  We may actually sell the futures and hold the short Call IF you have corn to sell by May.  

Wheat – Like we said in our Webinar and again last night, this one is going higher.  We see new highs for July and want to hold off on any new crop sales for now. 

Beans – Still no sign of a top and I am looking for the market to run the PB into the 90's before it's over. 

Rice – WOW!!!  There is news of a big tender by Iraq and also talk that we are finally buying acres away from rice in the delta...WELL DAH!!!   With Urea at $420 to $450 a ton...what do you want to grow???   I know some of us have no choice as it's rice or nothing but if you have the choice...milo, corn or beans offer's a better return right now...that could change but at the moment...it is not rice. 

The market touched limit up but the May pulled back and once again got in line with the spread at 77 to 80 cents in March/Sept.  Technically, today didn't do anything but tomorrow could...we will watch this one tomorrow and then see if we need to change our positions. 

Natural Gas - No real movement.  Market higher early but settled up moderately.  I see a break coming but so far, no action toward it. 

Cattle – I wrote about the inverted market aspect of cattle verses corn in the long term outlook as well as the Webinar yesterday morning.  Today we were higher gaining back almost everything we lost yesterday as cattle doesn't like its current price with corn headed for $4.50 a bushel.  We are still long here in the field with no hedges recommended. 

Tuesday February 20th -

Corn - Market cooled its advance today in a consolidation and another 10 cents pull back could happen.  It wouldn't surprise me either way but right now we remain bullish with the market finding good support on breaks.  We are long the May and short the May $4.40 call and no its not too late to do it.  The market has not made new highs for the March contract but it has on the July.  If March clears $4.21, we could see an even higher move.  By the way, the highest pit price was $4.16 in March and we are over that, so it is the electronic trades high we are referring to. 

Wheat – The market once again approaches a buy signal but can't muster any more gains without the corn headed higher.  Watch corn for now...

Beans – PB continues to work higher into more overbought conditions.  No sign of a top but it is coming.

Rice – Read last Friday's comments again.  The spread is out to 82 cents and we are looking for 90.  At that level, we will roll back into May.  The market was higher today but again the pit was nothing but a scene of spread trading today.  There is nothing in the fact we were 8 cents higher in new crop. 

Natural Gas - Market can't shake the cold just yet and there is good chance the draw number this week will be big again.  The 10-14 day weather forecast is warming so after this week, the market is going to lose some of its feed lines.  We are looking at the $8.00 call to sell near term. 

Cattle – Hard day down as cash values were lower and that sent commercials to the sell side.  This is a healthy break and it could be far from over; however, in this environment, the lower it goes now, the higher later. Let's see if we find support tomorrow.

Friday February 16th -

Corn - Big day up today as corn exports were huge and couple that with the forecasts from a weather service that the possibility of a dry summer is good and away we go.  Let's see, there is snow on the ground over the entire northern corn area of Iowa up to the Dakotas and east to the Smokey's and corn rallies on dry weather in the summer????  Come on now, this market was up on technical buying and the fact that the current price is not stopping the buyers.  New highs are at $4.20 1/2 and we think it might struggle against that next week; however, a move into new highs sets up a move to $4.35 in March.  We bought more corn today, buying the May contract out right and selling the $4.40 call against it for over 16 cents.  We'll hold that position for now along with our long cash corn positions; however, get ready to move corn to paper when we can.      

Wheat – A short covering rally today with poor export numbers and yet we still had big gains.  I like the market from this level as it is under priced given the rest of the grains and the market is short on top of it so more short covering is likely.  I am selling puts once I have buy signals.

Beans – What can I say...it just keeps going and on what???  Ideas of a huge shift to corn!!!  I think acres in corn will come in at 86 to 88 million acres and that is not bullish beans.  Even so, no sign of a top so we remain looking for a sell.  PB tonight is up to 82%. 

Rice – Red last night's comments.  New crop is holding and we have moved into the new crop for now as the spread widened out another 5 cents today.  This market is not trading anything but spreads right here and once we see that start to dry up, we may move right back into the old crop.  We will be looking at the July contract for that.  The March/September spread is now at 77 cents after we bought it at 65 to 69 cents just two days ago.  It can go to 90 cents but I think it will stop widening around 82-85 cents.  That is when we may go right back into the old crop July.  With that said, we will still watch it as it progresses.  Also one more thing.  PB is at 49% in March and 70% in the September.  That is quite a range.          

Natural Gas - Higher again today on short covering but I doubt it gets a lot higher near term.  The 6-10 day forecast is warm and with gas supplies still above the average for the last 13 years, I just don't think this one can hold in this level all the way into the summer.  We will buy a break. 

Cattle – Another slow day with a small gain.  Nothing new we still see if firm near term. 

Thursday February 15th -

Corn - Nothing really more to talk about here as corn starts higher and then sells off only to come back toward unchanged at the end of the session.  Looks like the market wants to "peg" against the $4.10 option strike price.  We'll see what happens but our overall ideas are unchanged.  A break here should be bought as we still find it hard to think farmers are planting 90 million acres of corn this next year and the weather market season is dead ahead.  We are short some puts here and long cash for those who can be. 

Wheat – Market firmed with Kansas City higher.  I still see the market setting up for a low but no sign of it yet.  We'll stay on the longer-term picture side of the market which is friendly.

Beans – Once again, beans rally on ideas that there is going to be a dramatic drop in bean acres for corn.  I'll go on the record and say that is NOT what is going to happen and this market is setting up to be a huge sell.  For now we will go with it but a warning should be sounded.  PB is now at 79% and is screaming that we are getting close to a top. 

Rice – Well, things have changed.  We recommended last night that traders should exit old crop and move to September and we did that today ourselves except for a play in the May options.  I'll talk about that in a minute.  Here is what has happened.  For the last several weeks, a major commercial was buying the July and Selling September at even.  That means the same price.  It was a major position being rolled from the July to September and all selling in the July was being absorbed.  This was more then likely a large commercial short the July buying it back.  On Tuesday, something changed in the afternoon and yesterday, it was apparent that the two big players in the spread cut a deal.  All of a sudden the big buyer of July was gone and the big buyer in the September was gone as well.  Orders were pulled and the market today gave up on the old crop new crop spread as July collapsed against the September contract.  My guess is that a co-op needed to make the deal to stop the buying in July and they cut one.  That allows the old crop July to go to carry on September and while I doubt is can go a full 30 cents it can sure go to 25 cents.  That will allow the May contract to accordion right down into the old January contract range.  When I saw it, I recommended everyone to move out of the old crop...for now.  We may go back into the old crop at some point but not now.

We also chose to play the May contract a little by selling $10.00 and $10.20 Puts.  They were selling at levels that if the market moves lower into May, allows us to own the May contract under $10.00.  I doubt that happens but we took some of the premium being paid for protection for this move down and am glad to take ownership.

By the way, the big surprise from Chicago is that the traders think the acres will be the same in 2007.  They are counting that acres come back in Louisiana since there was a loss in land last year based on salt water intrusion.  If they are right, then we need to look hard at the export numbers and see what happens to carryover at the end of 2007.  I don't know what the acres will be as it all depends on Arkansas farmers.  Are they going to plat $10.00 rice or $8.00 soybeans.  What a choice.

Natural Gas - A tad higher but we are getting closer to warmer weather and the forecasts are showing now higher then normal temperatures.  I see April Gas under $7.00 in the next few days.

Cattle – Very quiet with a little higher close.  Nothing new, we still see it higher but are watching it close. 

Wednesday February 14th -

Corn - The market moved over $4.12 today but couldn’t close there and the market sold off to support at $4.06.  It bounced 3 cents but ended the day lower with a hook reversal down.  Tomorrow will be critical as additional selling and a push through today’s low sets up a test of $4.00.   We are short the $3.80 put and the $3.90 put on some.  You can read back that we did that several weeks ago.  We remain long cash and will sell some calls against that when the time is right.

Wheat – Well, we may like higher prices longer term but shot term, this make can be jerked around pretty easily.  Market is testing support and so far no additional bullish news to lower the selling pressure.  We remain out of futures and long cash new crop believing that a weather scare remains possible and he overall risk is minimal to the downside.

Beans – “It just won’t break” is what a trader said as he came off the floor today talking about the beans.  Selling dries up in the beans as we head lower so here is still no technical reason to be a seller here.

Rice – Spreading is the story here at the board of trade.  If I weren’t for that there would have been very little trading done today and that is the story so far for the whole week.  In general, we see nearby trend continuing as the selling of old crop in front of the final sales in Arkansas for last years crop, may take the spreads to full carry or more.  The talk of GMO tainted supplies has the trade worried and while I think it is a tempest in a tea pot, there is not enough demand to over ride the selling of old crop supplies.  We are rolling to September for protection instead of May as the may contract may accordion right into the Mach lows.  

Let’s Talk:     When the traders here tell me that the board should never have allowed GMO rice to be delivered because it is “killing the market”, I just shudder because we are talking about a 6 million cwt. Market that doesn’t want our rice.  They never want our rice but now they have a reason not to take it.  With the demand down right here for exported milled rice, the board is taking it on the chin as Arkansas rice producers are encouraged to sell their GMO rice and get rid of it so it doesn’t “contaminate” new crop.

So what happens if rice goes to $13.00 this time next year?  Well, the mills in Arkansas will have bought rice from producer’s dumping GMO at the current price and will be selling it to the market that doesn’t care about GMO for a very nice profit.  We have a 6 million cwt market pushing around a 120 million cwt market as the mills cry “wolf”.

With that said, this is a game I don’t want to play so I look at the new crop and see September as my haven and not November.  So, we will roll to September and sell May Puts on the way out in case it gets crazy.   

Natural Gas - Market again flirting with $7.10 in the April.  That is where the market rolls over and lines up on the sell side of the indicators and will again tomorrow.  Look or lower prices ahead but this break must be bought.

Cattle – It was a quiet day with nothing to talk about.  No changes in our positions as we see risk building but not to where we want to hedge it.

Tuesday February 13th -

Corn -  Steady buying today has the market against the last resistance point of $4.12 1/2.  There is nothing new fundamentally but again, the over all fundamentals are supportive as we head for the planting report.  As the market approaches resistance, we could sell come calls against long positions but we are not ready to do any selling.

Wheat  - Still working toward resistance.  We still think the market has some weather problems to work through and think higher prices are ahead.

Beans - New highs for new crop.  As one floor trader told me today, we are trading money as much as soybeans.  In general, the market looks good and we are not selling here either,

Rice - Bear spreading today as new crop found support and moves toward $11.00.  Traders are not sure about acres in 2007 just as I am not sure.  Fact is, anyone can change their mind and $8.00 beans may help make that decision.

Natural Gas -  Higher today with crude.  Nothing changes the overall situation.  The draw this week will be big but next week weather will start to moderate and we could easily see the market pull back.

Cattle -  Higher with good internal fundamentals.  No sign of a top yet.

Monday February 12th -

General Comment - A very quiet day with no news to push the market.  Nothing new for rice either as the market looks to like this range.  We may recommend some option trades here coming up so be ready for something a little different. I'll wait to get a better feel on the market tomorrow.

Natural Gas - Market is breaking hard under weather changes.  We see his one lower near term as the rally fails.

Cattle - Higher on really nothing.  We still like it near term.

Friday February 9th -

General Comment -  The USDA report today didn't change the overall "Big" picture in any of the grains; however, it is time to make sure the price fits the picture.  Corn remains the most bullish picture and today's report didn't dampen that at all.  The USDA will be faced with changing the exports even higher in the next report unless the current sales rate slows down so the picture there remains bullish as we head into the March planting report.  For beans, the picture is only  bullish if there is a drop of 8 million acres in the bean report in March.  Until then the picture is friendly to ride with corn.  Wheat has been bearish to sideways with slow demand.  That picture maybe changing but there was nothing in the report to indicate such.  The nest two weeks of export sales will important. Finally in rice, the picture has not changed one bit.  So...with the report in I see the picture friendly for corn and wheat IF this price can bring up sales.  For Soybeans and rice, the picture is neutral; however, if corn makes new highs, beans will have to follow.   

Corn -  The USDA report didn't change a thing and gave notice that they may lower the carryover in the next report.  The market firmed on the news but closed off the highs by three cents going into the close.  A test of the $4.12 level is next and after that its the contract highs.  We remain long and I know some of you are getting nervous.  Just remember, the market doesn't make Highs in February and the overall fundamentals remain supportive.

Wheat  - Higher today with some new buying in the pit by commercials.  A seasonal pattern indicates a low is forming here and if it does, we could see a nice demand driven rally. 

Beans - The report was bearish but the market is looking at a huge loss in acres.  A loss that I wonder really exists.  I want to be short beans but not now.  We will let it run and and then be very aggressive.  Once acres are known, you don't want to be long beans until the summer weather scares arrive. 

Rice - Higher but not by much.  2 cents in the old crop but that is better then down 2 unless you are short.  We still see rice as a sleeper but its just not time for a move here.  The overall fundamentals are neutral short term but supportive longer term.  Again, if we lose another 200,000 acres of rice, the new crop is not going to be able to remain this low.  I know there are a lot of naysayers but if corn is $5.00 beans are $8.00 and wheat is over $5.00 as well, rice can be a lot higher.  The buyers are not going to like it, but we remain in a buyers market in rice and that will change IF the fundamentals turn bullish later this year.

Natural Gas -  The 6-10 day forecast remains bullish as the North East is going to be really cold for the next two weeks; however, not as cold as it has been.  Even so, I expect the draws to remain high the next two weeks but then, a more normal temperature is forecast.  The time is approaching to get short and we may do so by buying puts.  I am not going to sell calls just yet. 

Cattle -  Lower today but not by much and that was with corn up 9 cents at one time.  We still see the market as supportive right now but not wildly so. 

Thursday February 8th - USDA report in the morning

Corn -  So much for consolidation as the market snapped back up 8 cents today.  It can still go up easier then it can go down.  The report tomorrow is expected to show an increase in the carryover by 10 million acres.  Nothing new for us.  The March planting report is still going to be king here.

Wheat  - Higher as well with demand the big issue near term.  Let's see the report.

Beans - More fear of less acres has the beans on a rally.  Come march, I may want to be short but not now.

Rice - New crop higher but old crop lower.  The USDA report tomorrow will probably raise the carryover number by 1 million cwts but that is my guess based on past history. 

Natural Gas -  Higher on more cold weather in the 6-10 day forecast.  The 10-14 is starting to thaw out a bit.  We have the weekend to get through but I like the short side here for now. 

Cattle -  Cattle lower based on more movement after the cold freeze in parts of the mid-west.  The coldest weather next week looks to be out of the heart of feed lot country but it is still going to be mighty cold.

Wednesday February 7th -

Corn -  The market closed the gap today with selling coming from all areas and setting up a trend day down.  This is the second day in a row which classifies as one.  The market also saw a major increase into new crop open interest with December corn gaining over 4,000 contracts yesterday.  The bear spreading continued today which is very interesting.  At the close Mar and Dec are almost the same price. 

Look for some consolidation tomorrow in corn and for now, the bear spreading looks to continue.  There is no new news to drive the old crop and won't be until the USDA report this Friday.  More and more people expect the USDA to raise the carryover in the report and the market looks like that as well.  Even so, read our comments from last night.  Longer term, we need to do some major rationing of corn and it isn't being done it February. 

Wheat  - Higher today looking at other conditions besides the corn trade.  More news is needed to fuel a weather spike but the time is certainly right for one.

Beans - November got to the brink and then slithered back. $7.99 1/2 was the high so we continue to flirt with $8.00.  Like the wheat, the market finished up fractionally but there was no trend day down here.  Nothing new from us as the reversal yesterday had no follow through.

Rice - Last night, we saw big orders in the march under the market.  That spooked enough traders to see the market open higher and at one time run up 12 cents.  It didn't hold it and finished up 6 for the day.  Today's high is important tomorrow as it becomes resistance.  If there is something a foot in the market, it will show itself in the next couple of days but the market is not really acting like there is anything just yet.

Natural Gas -  Up 8 cents in quiet trade but down off of the high.  The cold weather is becoming a well known fact and a move lower seems likely dead ahead.  We would buy a good dip here.

Cattle -  Market higher again today and the cash news remains supportive. 

Tuesday February 6th -

Corn -  Looks like the gap will be closed as there is no news to drive the market higher.  Commercials are buying on the break but they are using a scale down approach.  Open interest continues to decline as speculators move to the sideline in front of the ideas that acres are up toward 90 million. 

Let's Talk:  OK what does it mean to have 90 million acres of corn really.  What most people do is take that number an multiply it by the expected yield which on curve is 152 bushels.  That is a 13.6 billion bushel crop.  But what is planted is not what is harvested.  Over 8 million acres this past year was not harvested including silage.  If I take off the same percentage of the 90 million we would come back to 12.3 billion bushels and with an expected usage of 12.2, that increases the carryover by just 100 million bushels.  Now add the the issue of weather....and oh my gosh, this market has nothing in it for any possible yield decline.  Suppose the yield ended this year the same as last???  The yield would be a total of 12.0 billion and the carry over would drop to 400 million.  That would make the price rationing on corn be extreme.  The bottom line is this, if soybeans keep moving higher to hold acres, corn will have even less and it needs a 90 million planted number just to hold even with a trend line yield.  Buy this break!!!!

Wheat  - The market is moving lower looking for demand.  The technicals indicate the market will remain lower into the late February.  As the market moves lower, it is taking all weather premium out of it so look for a scare to generate some real action especially if it turns off dry into March.  If it stays wet, look for some sideways action.

Beans - Today was hook reversal down.  Tomorrow we may see some additional selling.  Talk of a huge loss to corn is pushing the market higher but it is buying back acres from corn.  We need to get to the March report to stop the insanity.  For now, we'll see where the buyers come back in to try and hold acres.

Rice - As I told a group tonight, this market is a sleeper but that doesn't mean it can't work lower.  Cash prices are back at $10.50 in Texas so the downside in March is limited unless something changes in the fundamentals. 

Natural Gas -  We are stuck right here at this level but could see one more push.  The problem is that the usage of Natural gas is probably to late to make a huge dent in the current inventory.  Once this cold scare is over, we could see a hard push lower.  We will be buying that break.

Cattle -  No change in our position.  We could work higher near term with the idea of cheaper corn but the overall issue is profitability long term.  Near term the cattle market may need to try and work off some excess meat with production this week up 7% over last years numbers.  Nothing new from us, we see it better but slowly working higher with setbacks that could be bought.

Monday February 5th -

Corn -  It's getting so I could write these comments once a week and they would be accurate.  The market tried to go lower today but came back closing around unchanged.  As I type this late at 7:30 PM, the markets are back down 1 cent in the over night session.  Nothing new.  We remain range bound and another test of the gap is likely.  It is still 7 weeks to the planting report and it will be the deciding factor until we get to the weather market.  Near term, I don't see anything to really shock the market one way or the other.  There is talk of near 90 million acres next year for corn and that would increase the carryover by a whole 300 million bushels.  A weather scare will be dynamic so it will take a huge number to keep the market from exploding.  I think the bull spread may start to work from here so watch it as well.

Wheat  - Crop damage is talked about but the market still has no demand buying in it so for now, its caught just like corn.  Things can change here quickly.

Beans - Lower acres are still being talked about with a huge shift to corn.  We'll see but again, the report is 7 weeks away.  That is a long time. 

Rice - Nothing here either.  Sideways for now.   

Natural Gas -  The market couldn't close over $7.87 so the technical picture hasn't changed.  The cold weather is expected to stay around for a few more days and then another blast next week.  I think this rally should be sold and look for a correction coming once the weather and crude is fully in the market.  The target of $8.17 remains in play for April gas.

Cattle -  Higher...risk remains small right now.

Friday February 2nd -

Corn -  A small hook reversal up today with the market remaining in a flag formation.  Nothing has changed here with the market consolidating.  The February WASDE report is the next fundamental news other then exports.  Out side market pressure could also surface but for now, the market may just tread water.  We remain short the $3.80 March put.  We probably will ride it to completion. 

Wheat  - Market continues in its downward channel.  I think it will take a weather scare to move this back into the bull camp.  For now, it looks to drift in a sideways to lower pattern.

Beans - As we mentioned last night, dry weather in South America can have an impact on this market.  Traders said today they were concerned that the March 31st report is going to indicate more of a shift out of beans so the new crop continues to bounce on that news.  The higher beans go, the lower the corn acre increase is going to be so right now we are buying back bean acres from corn.  All in all, this could get into a "buy it" contest.  The big winner in the long term will be rice.

Rice - Nothing to talk about.  The market is drifting a little lower with no real news to drive the market right now.  Yesterday's reversal was matched by a spike reversal today so we may see a little technical bounce from this level; however, if we don't, cash sellers should be prepared to move to futures and sell cash if the basis moves higher.    

Natural Gas -  Yesterday's key reversal down is now in control of the technical picture.  A move under $7.40 could bring in a heavy round of selling nut a move over $7.87 will reverse the market higher and push us toward the $8.15 level very quickly.

Cattle -  Strong day today with the 6 month cattle inventory numbers looking good to me.  We see little risk near term.

Thursday February 1st - Wednesday's Comments were lost somehow...we are looking for them!!! 

Corn -  After the move higher yesterday failed, the overnight trade was all buying and the market finished higher coming into this morning.  After a higher open, we lost buyers and the market sold off finishing back into the gap and the lowest close since the report.  Nothing new from us as the big picture has not changed and we see the market consolidating for now and then turning higher.  We remain short the $3.80 put at 5 cents and will sell some more at that price on a short term oversold condition. 

Wheat  - Corn led the decline in wheat but prices are starting to approach buyers levels as we are getting more and more in lone with world prices.  We are looking for a place to get a little long here. 

Beans - There is dry weather in Argentina and that has the market worried about pushing a lot lower.  Selling dried up on concerns of problems growing in South America.  No change by us.  We are looking to sell November but we'll be patient. 

Rice - Market worked higher on export news and then sold off only to rally back and put in a quiet hook reversal up which means absolutely nothing.  We see it sideways right now and higher longer term with the corn.

Natural Gas -  Gas is holding this price level and looking at fundamentals.  We have no change in our ideas as we look for a buying opportunity short term.

Cattle -  Feeders sold off today but not on any big news.  Notice again, corn was down and so was feeders.  Interesting...