Friday June 29th-

Corn  –  Where do I start???  The bottom-line is that the NASS report is finally in and it showed a huge increase in acres.  Up 2.2 million which if we assume 91% will be harvested,  adds 300 million to the supply and that situation sent the market sharply lower.  If yield drops to 146.5 bu. acre from the current 150 forecast, then the carryover number is the same as the last S&D report even with the increase in acres.  All of this to say, it still isn't over; however, that big thing with a huge light coming is not the end of the tunnel. 

There is a lot to talk about tonight.  For instance, a lower price will increase demand as more ethanol can be produced when head to head against $70.00 crude oil but...we are producing at capacity.  The weather forecasts are getting dryer for the Western corn belt but... they are not near to any damaging conditions.  China is having some major weather problems but...we are months from them needing to buy corn from the United States. All-in-all it comes down to yield and while that is up in the air, it's not over but if we start to see a 155 bushel yield on 84.5 million harvested acres, we will see the carry over jump back up to 1.6 billion and that would indicated prices under $3.00.  Two years ago our carryover was 1.9 billion and the average farm price was $2.00 so you can see at today's price of $3.55 we are still too high if the carryover is going to jump.

It is hard to be pro farmer and understand how this could happen but if we assume a $2.50 cent average corn price for this crop, how many acres will we lose going into 2008???  The bottom line is we did it to ourselves and while I still see a bounce over the next four to six weeks...we need to be selling it like we sold wheat today....aggressively.

Wheat – MASSIVE KEY REVERSAL DOWN...  We got to 80% sold today shortly after 11:30 when it became apparent that wheat was putting in a major reversal on a bullish report.  If you didn't get it and I doubt many did, I would go ahead and sell the other 30% right now...over the weekend if you can.  If you want to see if there is a bounce that is cool but sell another 15% over the weekend and then look for a volatility bounce early next week to get the other 15% done.  If you know what your yield is and can use futures, we would get to 100% sold ASAP.  Today's action is a killer and it was what we were waiting for to do the final selling on.  We can always come back in and buy futures but today is screaming....SELL IT NOW!!!  

Beans – Up 41 cents with a wild day behind the action.  At one time there were 30,000 contracts bid at limit up and then there were none.  The fact we closed away from limit up is not a good sign either.  July had no limit so one time it was up 68 cents only to finish up 41 which was 5 cents off the lows after the report...not too swift.  Even so, we remain with no additional sales (we are at 25-33%) believing this market has $9.00 all over it in the November.  We got $8.92 before the limit up level stopped the advance.  We will look at the market next week but breaks here are going to be supported. 

Rice – Last night I said this may be the new NASS...nope.  It's the same old group with the same old problems.  They don't know what the heck they are doing when it comes to rice and they use an archaic system when they have a computerized system right in front of them.  They refuse to check acres by computer as they are reported in each state and look for trends between farm numbers.  A system that seems so much better logically and accurately but no, they call some guys and say..."What are you thinking about how many acres you planted?"  As I have said many times before the system "sucks" but hey, they have their jobs to consider and if they changed to a new approach, they might lose theirs. 

OK...off the soap box.  Down 24 cents and yes I was long but not that much.  We have been keeping our powder dry waiting for a breakout.  We didn't get one today and there is another 20 to 40 cent risk as the USDA just added 4 million cwt to the supply of rice.  As I said in the report analysis, they did lower the Texas crop after being off consistently so I have no beef with them on our acres here.  In general, looks like we will be in that $4.00 level for quiet a while. 

Natural Gas – Market bounced today after the big break yesterday but it may be a dead cat bounce...or not!!!  The key is the weather forecasts after July 4th.  No sign of tropical action but again, it's not late as we pointed out earlier this week.  As of now we have had 1 more named storm than the record year of 2005 as of this time.   

Crude Oil – Up 80 cents and closing over $70.00.  It is going to get worse!!!

Cattle – Up 20 and selling off of its highs at the close. 

Dow – Down 34 with 15 minutes to go.  All over the place again today. 

Cotton -  Sharply higher today on acres.  PB is now at 86% so be careful.  

Thursday June 28th-

Corn  –  No bounce as the market looks at bearish weather and and a report they think will indicate higher production.  Down 4 to 5 as the market braces for the NASS report.  Frankly, I doubt it means a heck of a whole lot as any increase is going to be factored in unless it's crazy.  What if they cut acres by 200,000 acres?  Now that would be a surprise but the weather is so much more important now than a few hundred thousand acres and the weather...is right down perfect.  Still no reason to own it but the time is coming. 

Wheat – No follow through but no real rejection of yesterday's reversal either.  We will continue to watch yield results for direction. 

Beans – Up about 6 cents in beans as acres are expected to be less.  I like the beans in any event but we'll look at the numbers.   

Rice – Up 5 to 8 as the market waits for NASS and their guess of rice acres.  This will be interesting but history says NASS doesn't change a lot even when they know the acres are different.  Maybe this is the NEW NASS.  Let's see...

Natural Gas – A much larger injection number sent Natural Gas reeling.  We were stopped out on the new lows but still want to own this break.  We will sit back and let things clear out a bit but the timing for a weather scare is fast approaching.   

Crude Oil – As I type this we are up 62 point and almost 100 points off the high.  Volatility continues. 

Cattle – Moved higher all day long following the reversal yesterday.  Cattle looks to keep on moving up near term.

Dow – Up 40 in another wild day.  Fed says they see inflation risk today and that put in some of the volatility.  This market may be putting in a top.  There is just that feel to it.

Cotton -  Up 1 and very quiet in front of acreage report.

Wednesday June 27th-

Corn  –  As I said last night, don't fight this train.  It is hard to get out of a market that moves like this but it will let you sleep better.  With that said, today's action was bad and constructive all at the same time.  The close is down 13 but we were rally at the close and this usually says the margin call has been paid.  Think of it this way.  Locals sell the market when they see margin call problems.  This gives them bullets to buy the market when the last of the margin sellers come in.  That usually happens on the close of a trend day down.   As a floor trader, I can remember selling the market on a day like this and waiting for the close to cover the shorts who need to get out or make their margin call.   Today at the close, there was no selling and the locals who were short and waiting for the selling, had to cover their shorts and found the sellers not there.   We call it "air" on the floor.  In other words, there was nothing but air to cover the buying that was needed at the close.

Now before you get the wrong impression, this does not mean the low is in.  It could be but it doesn't need to mean that.  It means that the sellers who needed to get out or pay up have done exactly that...gotten out or paid up.  Friday is the report day and traders are expecting higher planted acres.  The estimate is at 90.6 which is up 150 thousand acres.  Now that is not much but some are expecting 91.5 to 92 million acres.  I don't know but I do believe in the "sell the rumor buy the fact" and that is what I expect.  Today's action says we are about done with the wash out for now.  If there is perfect weather in the next 2 to 3 weeks and acres are a little higher, the lows are not in but for the time being they may be.  Should you come back in and buy it??  Depends on your ability to endure some financial pain.  If we open higher tomorrow, today's low is the place to get out on a stop so your risk is under control.  Also, you need to decide how you want to go through the report on Friday.  One thing is for sure, we are a lot closer to the low than the high...A LOT!!!    

Wheat – A hook reversal down today.  We need some follow through and a close under $6.08 for us to sell more wheat.  We are 50% right here and with the technical action in the last 30 minutes today.  The selling does not look that strong.  We'll watch tomorrow.

Beans – Lower by 5 cents but well off the lows.  Comments about the funds being too long are circulating.  I don't see it but certainly there is some room for the funds to do some selling.  The technical action today as the close was impressive. Today's high is resistance.  We would wait for that level to be taken out before buying it. 

Rice – Down 3 to 6 in a very quiet day.  I guess the market will go dead in front of Friday's report.  Two things we have been talking about here.  One is the USDA planting report for rice which will be interesting but also the fact that the July futures is about to go into delivery.  I have been saying for sometime, this old "GMO" tainted crop needs to be behind us.  Once July has been "taken care of" through deliveries, I expect the market to have a better chance to factor in the real fundamentals.  I still like it longer term and that is starting to come toward short term status.  

Natural Gas – I am in acquisition mode here but there is still nothing to get too excited about.  Read our comments last night as nothing has changed; however, today's rally puts in a large hook reversal up and sets us up to move toward the $7.50 level.  Also, the gulf is getting more active.  Not that there is any storms brewing and none are expected over the next 48 hours, but the showers and convection are a lot more active today than last week this time. 

Crude Oil – Sharply higher...good grief.  What a market.  I am not trading it right now.

Cattle – Massive Key Reversal Up...  This could make it very interesting.  We need follow through to the upside and if we get it, a test of the main trend line could occur and that is about $4.00 higher.

Dow – Up 90 on a rally late.  I said last night that the market looked like a bounce today and it may have more ahead but if we take out yesterday's low, look out.

Cotton -  Up 24 as it slowly grinds out an uptrend. 

Tuesday June 26th-

Corn  –  Unchanged today but consolidating the losses from Monday is not a good sign.  As I type this the overnight session is down 2 cents in the July.  $3.52 is support but we are just 3 cents over it so I expect that level to be taken out.  For now, everything is bearish and the market will track lower as rain falls across the lower portion of the corn belt and there is no news out there to stem the tide of selling.  Friday morning's report is going to be big and it looks bearish as well.  Read our comments from last night.  This is not the time to be long or fighting the trend.  Lets let things settle down a bit but I expect the market to find support over the next two to three weeks and there is still a good chance for a pop to higher prices.  I will admit.  This Friday's number is going to be huge. 

One more thing, if there is going to be a surprise, it will be a bullish one.  This is a might big IF.

Wheat – Sharply higher today.  New contract highs in some months as the concern for harvest and world supplies continues to drive the prices higher.  Wet weather will continue to hamper harvest and hurt yields.  Corn market take a good look...

Beans – A little higher today but lower here at night by 2 cents.  My opinion here hasn't changed very much.  There is a lot of talk about the funds in a very long position.  Yes, they have a big position but only becomes a problem if they start selling it and there is no doubt they can still buy more.  Friday's report will be a big one as well. 

Rice – WOW!!!  OK...where do I begin!!!  Down 34 at one time after opening unchanged and then trading all the way back to down 2.  Someone really screwed up big time here but who or why I don't know.  The market broke on a large sell order and there were no buy orders in the pit.  The locals backed up to take on the position and then rode the turn right back up as the commercials came in to buy the break.  There was no selling by that time and back we came.  Very interesting.  Again, this Friday's number will be huge. 

Natural Gas – Still inching lower.  Gas is a little higher overnight but "little" is the key word.  We could sell off another 25 cents toward the $6.75 as there is still no sign of a storm but lets think back a minute.

Let's Talk:  Last year there were no storms at all as the gulf winds from a dying La Nina didn't allow the storms to form in the gulf or threaten the US for the most part.  This is a different year with a different situation over the gulf.  If you go back to 2005, that is the year with 28 named storms.  15 were hurricanes.  You know the story.  Just so you know the whole story, the second named storm that year formed on June 28th.  The third storm became hurricane Cindy and formed (as a tropical depression) on July 3rd.  That is still 7 days away to be in the same time frame.  Now I am not at all saying we will have anything close to 28 named storms.  The current hurricane forecast is for 17 storms of which 5 are hurricanes and 3 make landfall in the US.  That is there guess but it still holds. 

The trade is not trading like it even closely thinks there will be a major storm this year and we are lighting the fire of a MAJOR pop to the upside in the next two to thee weeks.  That is why I can see $6.75 but I will buying more as we break. 

Crude Oil – The collapse of yesterday repeated itself today but there was no bounce this time.  Off $1.57 in the September.  We need a break here...but again, I will buy it just like last time. 

Cattle – Down 65 today as the market eases off of the corn price scare of two weeks ago. 

Dow – Down 14.  I expected more downside then that today so I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce tomorrow. 

Cotton -  Up 61 as traders buy more cotton supplies.  They may be doing just that.

Monday June 25th-

Corn  –  Down almost 10 in July with Dec down 8.  As I said at mid-day the market could drift lower this week as weather forecasts have all turned bearish to very bearish.  Even forecasts for La Nina to strengthen have changed in the last few days so everything out there is bearish.  Couple that with Friday's planted acreage report, and we have the formula for additional selling this week

Let's Talk:  The trend line we had last week this time has been decimated with no support at all and the only thing left for support is the low in July at $3.54 which is 20 cents lower than today's close.   There is no reason to believe we cannot test that low or even take it out.  It is all in the formula to the carryover number.  If the USDA comes in and increase planted acres by 1 million acres, that will increase carryover by 160 million bushels.  If they increase the yield by 5 bushels an acre, that increases carryover by 450 million bushels.  Get the picture???  While this crop is not made, it is on a great start and this afternoon's crop condition report will be watched closely.  In order for this market to get any pre-harvest rally really going, there MUST be a threat to the yield.  Right now, there is none and the market is telling us the yield potential is there to send the carryover number back over the 2 billion bushel mark. 

So am I ready to throw in the towel and sell everything for 2007...not hardly.  When everyone gets bearish, it's time for a bullish surprise.  I think it will come from lower and right here you have to be short if your trading with a system but remember, this crop is not in the bins and there will be another scare at some point.  Even so, it will have to be a whopper to get this back to the high just 10 days ago... a price that is over 60 cents higher than the close tonight.     

Wheat – Down 3 in the July.  Read our Friday comments.  I see the market higher in a post-harvest rally but it may come from a lower level.  The market is trying to figure out the size and quality of this crop and right now, it is confused.  When it becomes clear, we should see a trend develop.

Beans – The only thing higher today as beans rally 7 1/2 cents.  If you take away the weather, beans are really telling us that the bean acres are going to be lower in the report Friday and Corn acres higher.  On the 30 minute system, beans are in rally mode from being oversold and conditions maybe right for them to work a little higher.  Longer term we still like the beans.

Rice – Down 6 to 7 in a very quiet trade.  If we rally here in the next few days my suspicion will probably be proven on the acreage report.  If we don't, then I may have to back off until I see the number.  With the COT showing the commercials are short and selling the rally, I think I'm wrong.  Even so, nothing has changed.  Short term who knows but longer term looks favorable for price improvement. 

Natural Gas – More cool weather and signs La Nina is no longer strengthening has gas in full retreat.   PB is at 28% tonight with the Bollinger band separation as high as we have seen it since last summer.   The market is way oversold and has now accepted the fact there will be NO hurricanes in the gulf this year...ok, right!!!  In other words, we have gotten to the point of ridiculousness but will let the market work out its own problem which it will certainly do.  Today was the 6th day in a row where it closed lower and we have dropped 1$ in that period of time.  We are slowly buying a position here but right now are no more than 10% long in the spec position and we are 50% long in the hedge position.  Yes, it could get worse before it gets better but I see a good bounce here and very soon.  

Crude Oil – Crude collapsed this morning but then turned around with a vengeance rallying $1.00 in just 30 minutes.  We finished $1.60 off the low and still down 3 cents on the day.  Gas traders beware....

Cattle – Down 35 today as the market eases off of the corn price scare of two weeks ago. 

Dow – After a rally this morning, the market has rolled over and is down 40 as I type this.  Frankly, the market still looks horrible.  We will stay short. 

Cotton -  Down 22 today with no real news. 

Friday June 22nd-

Corn – Down 17 cents today as the rainfall kept falling and so did prices in all grains except rice which was down just a couple.  I said at 9:40 this morning I was buying some futures which I did and I made a whole 3 cents on the trade before it became obvious we were headed right back down.  The only question in my mind was whether the July could close back below $3.70 which it did and we took home the exercised short puts so now we are long a few from those puts we sold for between 6 and 10 cents. 

What from here...Well we are 1/3rd sold and obviously disappointed not to have more sold but its not over yet.  The market has certainly taken out all the weather premium so if we look out and see the 6-10 day forecast there is still reason to believe we will build some of this back into a market that...as I have said before...is nothing like we have ever seen before.  Do not get caught up in these massive swings...yes they are hard but the fact is the corn is not in the bins and there is no room for any problems of any kind!!!

The one thing that really bothers me is the comments that the USDA will increase reported corn acres in the June 29th report...that is very troublesome and if it is correct, we could see a new hard move lower just because the base plantings are higher.  We may go through next Friday's numbers short a little using Puts or short calls even. 

Wheat – Wheat fell through support today and the technical selling rolled in.  Also, the basis is not that firm here so there are plenty of reasons for wheat to go down...just not many to keep it down.  We like owning on a harvest break.  As we said Tuesday night, this market can work lower with the harvest but then the major fundamentals will be supportive and it will be more and more a sellers market.  So...eat what you can and store the rest!!!

Beans – Big break on weather but again, this is more technical driven then anything and at that fear was a big issue today.  Another reason why we caution traders to trade smaller volumes.  We will buy this break as well but it may be from another 30 cents lower.  

Rice – Down 2 and I smell a rat!!!  Is it possible the USDA is going to finally give us the REAL planted acres next Friday.  I am not going to hold my breath but the way this one has rallied and is holding in the face of the break in the rest of the markets, I wonder if there is not a surprise coming next Friday and someone in the trade already knows it.  Now I am not saying I will trade on such a hunch (at best a hunch), but when it come to the rice trade in the commercial side, I am very suspicious.  If we make a new high before the report on Friday, it will be more than a hunch.  Let's give it time and see what develops.  I should say that the open interest report today does NOT support my suspicion as the open interest is up entirely on fund buying.  So, why didn't the commercials sell more of it??  That is the question.

Natural Gas – Another nice drop today as no sign of heat or a storm send the market lower.  I bought some today and will slowly acquire inventory with the technical picture screaming that a major low is imminent.    This is the time to say..."past performance is no guarantee of future performance." 

Crude Oil – Up 71 cents on continued global concern.  I am not that convinced we need $69 oil to guarantee supply but then, I am not the market. 

Cattle – Down 27 with nothing to report here.  We are long in the field.

Dow – Last night, here is what we said..."Up 56 after being down 146 yesterday.  Frankly, this is looking horrible.  If we trade back under yesterday's close (Down 56) we could see a major sell off here.  I don't like it at all."  

Down 180 pints today!!!  We are short and will hold that position into next week.  A major correction may be ready to occur here.  I mean a major one.  It doesn't have to happen but things are lining up and the technical picture is very bad.  A move under 13250 confirms a major...MAJOR top!!!

Cotton -  Down 70 today as the market looked at the grains and followed lower.  Nothing new to report as the trend is still up but suspicious. 

Thursday June 21st-

Corn – Down 8 cents but the time has come to ask, is this a "sell the rumor, buy the fact" market situation??  I think odds are 65-35 that the answer to that is YES!!!  The question is not if its going to rain but how much.  As I type this the showers over Iowa  are moving very fast and the accumulation of rain is not that great.  If you look at the last round of showers coming out of Iowa and Wisconsin into Illinois you will see how they fell apart once they crossed the boarders and headed into Central Illinois.  Some of the latest forecasts show the rainfall totals in Eastern Corn Belt as greatly reduced.  I think the odds now favor a disappointing rainfall total BUT...I AM NOT A WEATHERMAN!!!   Yes, I was a weatherman for a couple of years (KBTX-TV, BRYAN) but come on, that was rip and read and one 3 hour class of meteorology...which I hope I can still spell correctly.   With that said, it's what is happening that counts so go check the radar as you will know when you do more than I know at this moment typing this; however, if you see the rainfall totals falling as this system head s east, tomorrow will not be down.  I did trade this market from the short side today (spec account) but I am not in any short positions tonight and right now, I hope we can get a sell off in tonight's trade to let me start to go back the other way.  The odds of this thing being over for the rest of the year....5%...maybe!

One more thing...1 1/2 inches of rain lasts less than 1 week once corn starts pulling 1/3 of an inch a day...  One rain will not a crop made but if it is a sign that the trend is changing, that is another story.  Problem is the 6-10 day outlook doesn't agree.   Another reason to believe this dip should be bought.

Wheat – Higher today but another wild session.  We closed 14 off the low and 12 off the high...that is wild!!!  More bad news on yield results and as the combines head north, some think the yields might get better.  OK, I'll bite, why??? 

Beans – Down hard today on weather concerns.  If this system falls apart once into Illinois the market may have given up too much.  There is talk of rain coming into the southern bean area from the south and that could keep the market under some pressure but it will all hinge on the amount of rain.

Rice – Down 9 in November as no news is bearish news for rice.  Even so, if the other grains head back up, we may see some healthy buying enter here.  This is a tough call.  Longer term we are bullish but believe the market does not have to go up right now.  I am still buying breaks but will give it some room.

Natural Gas – The injection number was not as high as the market expected but the rally right after the announcement was not very powerful.  Even so, I bought the dip here and we will be looking to see if this is a "sell the rumor buy the fact."  Also, the tropical wave in the gulf will not be a big thing except for the fact, we had one and that indicates conditions may be changing for cyclonic development.

Crude Oil – Down 26 points with no news to push it.  I can see a dip here or not!!!  Right here I am not trading it.

Cattle – Down 37 in October.  No new news here either.

Dow – Up 56 after being down 146 yesterday.  Frankly, this is looking horrible.  If we trade back under yesterday's close (Down 56) we could see a major sell off here.  I don't like it at all. 

Cotton -  December crossed 60 cents today confirming the uptrend with size.  Concerns that cotton acres are going to be way down in South America is fueling the fund buying frenzy.  So what happens when they buy more cotton acres down in Brazil...you don't want to know!!!  I am looking for a place to sell some cotton but will be patient as there is a long time before we know what Brazil is going to do, except cry that "American cotton farmers are too rich!!! "  Oh, Boo-Hoo!!! 

Wednesday June 20th-

Corn – Nothing new today.  It was a slower day as all eyes are on the weather and the amount of rain in the Eastern Corn Belt over the next 7 days.  It will still be all over the place and as I always say, I am not a weatherman. 

Wheat – Read last night.  Today's aggressive short covering is a good sign we will get our chance to sell wheat higher especially if the yield reports are indicating lower than expected production.  Time will tell if its right but for now we are looking to sell more wheat. 

Beans – Higher here as well as beans are still looking at solid fundamentals.  I like being long here and we have sold nothing yet. 

Rice – Not much news but the market came back and once again is setup to challenge the highs.  The cash market has firmed which indicates new business and maybe from an old customer...the E.U. 

Natural Gas – Down again and near the lows.  Tomorrow's injection report is expected to be bearish.  I will probably sell puts against the report looking for a reversal on "buy the rumor...sell the fact" type trade. 

Crude Oil – Down hard on the inventory number but then the market rallied back on fundamentals.  We still closed down 76 cents but almost $1.00 off the lows.   

Cattle – Down 42 today and consolidating.  We still like cattle near term but corrections are likely. 

Dow – Down hard today and look out.  It could get really bad here again as the failure to make new highs could signal a major correction.  Give it some room.

Cotton -  BIG DAY UP...Looks like a "V" bottom is forming.  Let's see if it follows through higher tomorrow. 

Tuesday June 19th- 9:00 PM....

General Comment – Corn is down 1 cent as I type this with beans up 7 to 8.  We may have gotten much of the "rain fear" out of the market.  In general, we have a long way to go and while a big crop would probably mean at least a 60 cent risk at this prices range, a disaster in the Mid-West would mean $1.50 up so traders have to balance the equation.  Bottom-line tonight is we seem to have done enough for the time being.  The morning weather forecast will tell the tale for tomorrow's day trade. 

Tuesday June 19th- 1:30 PM....Look for another update tonight by 9PM

Corn – STRIKE ONE  - Limit down locked today as forecasts changed for this weekend.  According to option synthetics, the market should open tonight down another 5 cents.  It will be interesting to see where we open as it appears there about 30,000 contracts offered at limit down across the board. 

Read our mid-day comments as I pretty much explain what happened here today.  From here we could easily break another 20 cents but then the question of a post July 4th rally will surface as the forecasts are still hot and dry going into that critical first week of July.  We sold some corn last week and I know not everyone followed our advice and hey, that's cool but be ready to sell it next time because there are at best two more chances and I still don't think we will damage this crop that badly.  I want to continue selling rallies so get ready to catch up.   More tonight at 9PM.

Wheat – I said it last night..."I may be wish I has sold more."...dang it!!!  Down hard today with the corn and beans.  At this point I hope the majority of you are at 50%.  We will use a rally to get that way if you didn't get there.  Don't be too nervous here if you have storage but if you are on the cash wagon only, get aggressive to keep ahead of the combine and hopefully you can store on the board.  Longer term we are bullish but this is now a cash led market and that means the buyers will extract extra to be in a position to store or own grain.  When the harvest pressure starts to ease, this market will be looking at good fundamentals but it could also be looking at them from 40 cents lower. 

Beans – Well, I may have made a mistake but I'm convinced just yet,  Beans sold off with the wheat and corn but the buyers were there on the break and the selling, when it dries up, could leave us a strong rally potential.  July Calls expire Friday and I would love to buy some cheap calls but with the weather uncertain into the expiration date, I will bide my time. 

Rice – With the break in grains, profit taking came into the rice.  A good break here and we want to own more on.  The $11.20 level in November is support from our "indicators" not the chart.  As we dip below that, we will start to take on longs. 

Natural Gas – Another hard break today as the market sees no threat to the current supply and the weather looks to be cooling off as well so usage maybe down.  We want to buy this break as the current hurricane discussion is saying the "sheer factor" over the gulf is declining.  This was what kept the hurricanes away last year but with that affect going away, we are open to storm formations. 

Crude Oil – Not able to shake free from the turmoil issues.  We closed unchanged basically and way off the lows. 

Cattle – Up 10 and well off the lows.  Still like cattle. 

Dow – Still hanging in there as bonds rally. 

Cotton -  December down 8 as we get quiet.  Nothing from us on this one. 

Monday June 18th- 7:30 PM

Corn – After a higher start, massive selling hit the market and took us down on the day and we put in a reversal, but officially it is a hook reversal as the low equaled Friday's low.   When you look at the electronic day, it was a key reversal down but we will stay with the pit's action for now.  In any event, the action today was negative.  Then this afternoon's crop conditions report was friendly as traders saw the crop conditions decline more than they expected.  Even so, the market opened tonight a little higher and then sold off and as I type this, corn is down 2 cents.  Beans are down 4.  The weather remains friendly but the markets are overbought and any sign of a change in conditions could give us a nice correction. 

No matter what, this is a weather market and not a technical one so I won't put a lot of credence in charts for the moment.  Even so, I still can see it higher and the weather still looks like it supports a further weather premium.  We have sold some corn just to get something on the books and right now that looks OK as we pulled the trigger at $4.10 but I'm not going to blow any smoke, I don't know what is going to happen from here.  That is why I always say, I am a technician...not a weatherman.  Today's high will be major resistance and the market may pause here with the current run to see how things go from here. 

Wheat – What a tough call.  We are down 4 cent in what as I type this and it looks like a further correction is probable as combines are rolling and some wheat is coming in.  We are going to get harvest reports out of Kansas the next 10 days that will probably set the tome here for the immediate future.  Technically it looks weak and I may be wishing we had sold more but we will hold where we are for now. 

Beans – Overbought conditions remain in affect so a correction is possible but not necessary.  I still like it higher and do not want to sell anything just yet.

Rice – We look to be ready to test 11.60 in the July.  A close over 11.55 is new highs and that could really bring in some fund buying. 

Natural Gas – That was close....a nice break in the natural gas today and again, we are long some but not enough.  We want to own this break but will be patient in establishing long positions. 

Crude Oil – August is approaching $70.00 with all the uncertainty in oil supplies.  We are vulnerable to a switch in the Nigerian situation and that could bring a rapid and huge correction.  Even so, I wouldn't be short here.  Problem is I'm not long either...

Cattle – Higher again today.  I still like cattle at this level.

Dow – Against the all time high and today we backed off.  Maybe to get a running start???

Cotton -  Down 12 and nothing to comment on.  I can still see it either way. 

Saturday June 16th-

Corn – The market opened higher and then sat there the rest of the day finishing up 6 to up 10 in the July.  Typical weather market as it moves in one or two ways usually.  It either opens unchanged and then pushes high in a trend-day formation for it opens higher and then sits there.  For the week, July corn was up 44 cents.  That is a huge increase but not uncommon given the current price, carryover, and weather forecasts.  Even so, one has to wonder if the weather is bad enough yet to push the market this high without a correction?  My answer remains, this is not like any market we have ever seen so there is no such thing as normal. 

We did do some selling yesterday just because we needed to get something on the books and for you in South Texas, this crop is going to be HUGE and it looks like combines will be rolling July 10th in some areas and that is going to press the basis.  That is another reason to get something sold especially if you cannot store 100% of the crop. 

My final comment is that I remain bullish.  I still see a possibility of over $5.00 for corn but it will need some weather help.  This is why we are still long Calls, short some Puts and grinning from ear to ear but things can change in a heartbeat.  Be careful.

Wheat – We sold more wheat today recommending 33% to 50% depending on what you had already done.  Our wheat target was $6.09 to $6.36 and we have hit that.  Now it doesn't mean it can't or won't go higher but it does mean that the market is set for some technical selling and if anything else changes, we could see a good correction.  We want to get into a position to trade options here more and more.  PB is still at 86% so we are in a major warning of a correction phase. 

Beans – We do not want to sell beans and in fact like being long here for another 40 to 50 cent advance.  Weather could complicate that target but it still looks good.

Rice – Down a little but not near as much as a hammer head formation can sometimes indicate.  We will own it lower and longer term really like the chances to see a higher move into the harvest.

Natural Gas – Up 9 more as we approach $8.00 again.  We will own a break.

Crude Oil – Over $68 again.  We would see some back and forth corrections with all eyes on oil production near term. 

Cattle – Up another 45 today.  Will continue to look at feed costs.

Dow – Up 85 as the market approaches its all time highs.  What a market. 

Cotton -  Higher again today and the chart looks good.  A V" bottom is possible here.

Thursday June 14th-

Corn – Higher by 3 to 6 today and in the early going tonight we are up 1 in July and unchanged in New Crop.  This is strange because the weather doesn't look that bad on the 6-10 day forecasts.  Anyway, the market is always right (so they say) and right here we are still building weather premium as the funds buy everything in sight.  The European weather forecast tonight is WET for the Eastern Corn belt next week (19-20th) and if it is right, then there is going to be a big sell off in corn starting next week.  PB is only 70% so there is still plenty of room to go higher but I have decided the run this past week is just too great to be in a major long position so I have taken profits on futures, sold long calls and am holding short Puts.   Even so, I do not like picking a top with out some reason technically and the only reason I see is over in the wheat since it has hit our target window and looks like it need to correct with PB approaching 90%.  Longer term I am still a big bull but I would like to see damage coming to a major part of the Eastern Corn Belt and a lower condition report for the Western Corn Belt.  It is still only June so a failure of the first run is to be expected. 

With all of this said, we like selling any old crop futures that we have as "buy back" positions, NOW.  This makes us complete on 2006/2007 corn sales.  Also, we would sell 20% of your 2007 crop now under this specific condition, this is any excess corn you need to sell on the turning row and cannot store.   If you can store it, then here's the plan, sell the August (Yes I said August) 440 call (this based on September Futures) at 16 cents or better.  Then turn and buy the 390 put for 11 cents.  This gives you no worse the $3.95 in September futures as of July 26th and no better than $4.45 as of the same date.  Before we get to expiration, we will move it to September or December options.  If you have a good hedge to arrive contract in your area, forget the options and sell 20% using that in December or January depending on your tax situation. 

Wheat – Another strong day but off the highs at the close.  We are recommending wheat farmers sell all old crop buy backs NOW and get to 33% sold in New Crop.  If you have storage and need to store it for basis or what ever reasons, sell it in forward contracts if you can.  If futures is the only gamer in town.  Be prepared for some wild swings and sell the December NOW on 1/3rd of the 2007 crop.  PB is 86% and we are due a correction plus this crop is going to be in position to use quickly so get there now.  Our upside target in July was $6.09 and then $6.36 and we are there right now...

Beans – Up 2 but near the lows and worse than that, a hammer head formation which is a formation pointing to a near term top.  This could be a over a week or over several weeks but if we follow through tomorrow, we could see a nice move down.  Even so, we are not recommending a sale yet in beans. 

Rice – Major hammer head formation here as well.  Look for rice to work lower tomorrow based on the action of today.  This is a tough call but the funds have been buyers and they bought more today.  If the other grains head lower, the funds will back up and wait for a correction just as we will. 

Natural Gas – Higher as concern over in the middle east and the Gaza strip fueled Crude higher and the injection number was lower than expected.  The risk is up here not down.  We are long and looking to buy more. 

Crude Oil – Very strong day on concerns of violence in the middle east...well Dah!!!  We will buy a break here but may not get one for a few days.  

Cattle – Like I said last night, cattle will not stay down if corn heads up.  Corn could explode in price after July 4th or even earlier so cattle will get more and more violent. 

Dow – Up 73 as the bond pressure eases.  The market is headed to test the recent high but I doubt it get through there without another break. 

Cotton -  Big day up as the market looks to be generating new buying based on fund buying as well.  Look for volatility here as well near term. 

Wednesday June 13th- Very Late tonight due to travel

Corn – Sharply higher today as it begins to sink in on what happens IF we have damage to this corn crop.  For now, the market is putting in a weather premium "just in case".  If the weather turns wetter later it will correct big time.  As I type this we are basically unchanged and guys that is exactly how markets explode in a weather market.  We open unchanged and then head sharply higher again.  DO NOT BE SHORT...DO NOT BE SHORT!!!  Don't make me say it again. 

Wheat – Up 24 1/2 and still going.  There is no sign of a top so we will remain ready to pull the trigger but not yet.

Beans – Down 1/2 of cent as beans are having a hard time divorcing themselves from palm oil right here.  When they do...and they will if this weather stays as forecast, then look out for a run to $9.00 in November.

Rice – Still higher and a close over $11.40.  Why??? In one word FUNDS!!!  They get "it" and if they keep coming for it, we will not stop here.  We are going to need to belly up to the bar and get more coverage ourselves.  We will buy breaks but with a weather market in corn, there may not be much of one if the funds keep at it.  Like I said before, this is not like any market you will have ever seen.

Natural Gas – Quiet today and holding support.  If we get any indication of a storm, we will pop up here.  We are buying this break and using options where we can.

Crude Oil – Up 73 today and consolidating. 

Cattle – Down 70 but I don't think this will hold if corn pushes higher.

Dow – Here is what I said last night..."the Ten Year bond is way oversold and it could rebound with a vengeance in the next few days.  Look for volatility and then the market accept a higher interest rate with the Dow making a major correction over the next 12 to 18 months.  Remember, I said we would have a recession in the next 12 months about 6 months ago and we are on target for it." 

A huge bounce today "with a vengeance" as we finish sharply higher but...and there is a but...this rally should be sold until we know it is a good run.  I think the odds are 60-40 that this rally fails and we start the correction. 

Cotton -  Up 90 as cotton gets in on the fun...

Tuesday June 12th-

Corn – Read last night again...ideas that rain could enter the Eastern Corn Belt kept the market on the defensive today but this afternoon's weather forecasts are dryer again from the European model and decisively cooler and wetter for the American.  I doubt many trust the American because it flipped so dramatically in the 6-10 day but it may bring some additional selling tonight until the evening runs come in. 

We remain cautious until we start to see some damage and that is not too far off.  Today I bought some July 390 calls and sold 410 calls against it.  The most I can lose is 5 1/2 cents and the most I can make is 14 1/2 (less one commission) so there you go.  We are still long some July futures and short some calls but for the most part we remain short the 350, 360 and 370 puts which expire a week from Friday.  Then we will look at the August options which are based on September corn...should be interesting.

Wheat – Higher by 9 but off its earlier high.  Look for some selling to start in here and we may joint them VERY SOON.  We want to get some sales on the books so right now, determine how much wheat you want to sell prior to the end of the year and get ready to lock in some of it. 

Beans – Lower today on belief the market is just too over bought.  A correction to $8.35 remains possible but I will not be short here the middle of June..

Rice – WELL!!!  Follow through from yesterday's rally tells me something is up.  The July which is the old crop, you know, the one with the GMO rice in that no one wants...well, someone wants it!!!  I am still not a believer but if we close November over 10.40 and start to test 10.60...I will quickly convert.  You know we are long but just about 40% of our buy back as this market is the sleeper.  Given the current TRUE acres and the fact that rice farmers are going to killed by the congress in the farm bill, this market is too low longer term and it is that which we are trading for.  I am not going to try and get a 30 cent winner on the short side when I am looking at a $2.00 risk on the long side.  Tomorrow will be interesting and I look for a pull back but I will stay the course.

Natural Gas – Market rallied at the end and we have short term buy signals.  A move over $7.72 confirms that tomorrow in the July.  This is just short term.  I am not ready to own it for the summer hurricane scare that is coming.  Patience. 

Crude Oil – Lower but way up off the lows.  Short term buy signals are about 40 cents higher tomorrow. 

Cattle – Higher but in the middle of its range when corn couldn't hold its gains.  Yes cattle is following corn.  Most people think that's weird but at the cost of feed.  This is what it will take to put beef on America's table. 

Dow – Read last night...yep, another hammer head formation that worked to perfection.  We see a big break here; however, the Ten Year bond is way oversold and it could rebound with a vengeance in the next few days.  Look for volatility and then the market accept a higher interest rate with the Dow making a major correction over the next 12 to 18 months.  Remember, I said we would have a recession in the next 12 months about 6 months ago and we are on target for it. 

Cotton -  Down 32 and settling in to another sideways trading range...oh how fun!!!

Monday June 11th-

Corn – The USDA Supply and Demand estimates were nothing compared to the dry weather being forecast for the end of June.  The market knows there is no way we can afford to lose any yield production this year and the idea of a drought will have exponential affects on the price given a 12 billion bushel demand outlook.  Corn finished sharply higher today and as we pointed out in our Webinar this morning, we are right up against major resistance.  A close over $4.02 could bring in the funds again and would forecast a move toward $5.00 to $5.50.  This can happen fast but I am not a believer just yet and in any event, we want to be a scale up seller if this thing takes off.  If we close over $4.05, then something is up.

Remember two things, first...there is no damage to the crop.  The ratings out this afternoon show a 1% decline in good to excellent and 1% increase in the poor to very poor category.  This tells us there is no damage yet with the crop rated at 77% good to excellent compared to 70% this time last year.  A change in the forecast could send this one right back down 20 to 30 cents to test support so do not get too bullish just yet.  With that said, IF the forecasts are right and a heat dome is going to setup over the Eastern Corn Belt and possibly move into the western belt...then the damage is coming.  That is a big IF and so now we sit and wait with the market moving in huge chunks while it tries to figure out the crop size this year. 

Wheat – The crop size was cut here as the damage to the crop becomes more and more apparent.  Looks like higher prices near term but sellers of wheat get ready as we will want to start wading in here VERY SOON...

Beans – This market is following Palm Oil and so today it was hard for the beans to get going.  Palm Oil was down sharply last night and has corrected about 10% in just 2 days.  If the weather eases at all for corn and allows for a short term break, beans will fall with it; however, if Palm Oil finds support here, we could turn up the heat on the bean rally.  I think $9.00 in November remains a good target.

Rice – WHAT IS THIS!!!  Up over 30 cents on what some traders called a "disappointing report"...What the heck are they smoking up there???  The report showed a cut in long grain inventory back to 16.1 million hundred weights from 16.6 which is not what the press is putting out as they focused in on all categories combined which went up over 2million cwts.  In any event, short covering was probably the main feature and again the support levels have held.  I would like to see some follow through buying tomorrow but I won't hold my breath.

Natural Gas – Down just a little today even with crude sharply higher.  $7.60 is support and on out short term model, the system is saying take profits if you are short.  I agree even with the computer unplugged.  If we get a gulf storm...look out!!!

Crude Oil – Sharply higher today with the July up over $1.00.  This balances the over sold condition of Friday but lets see if it too can follow through with more buying tomorrow. 

Cattle – Up 45 with no push.  Market could still go a little lower based on the trading last week. 

Dow – Unchanged after being higher earlier in the day.  This could indicate a push lower tomorrow based on a "hammer head" formation. 

Cotton -  Up 58 and looking like it still needs to check resistance level overhead.  As I said this morning on the Webinar, cotton is sideways for now and could stay that way for a long time.

DON'T FORGET WEBINAR MONDAY MORNING @ 8:30 AM

Friday June 8th-

Corn – With the overnight forecast for next Wednesday and Thursday wetter than yesterday's forecast, the market sold off overnight and sold off hard after the open this morning.   The the noon runs came in and sure enough...FLIPPER (as I call it) was at it again.  The American model flipped back to what it had been saying on the last several runs so, the market rallied about 10 cents with beans coming back over 25 cents off its low.  Corn finished down on the day but 6 off the lows and down 4 from its late highs on profit taking before the weekend.  We will have an update Sunday night to tell you what the weather forecasters are saying then.   

Wheat – Higher on the day and looking dang good technically.  We want to sell some wheat but for now, we will be patient. 

Beans – Palm oil collapsed overnight which sent the beans into a tail spin.  Down over 20 cents at one time, the market roared back as no one wanted to go home short bean over the weekend and the break today was their chance to lose some risk.  The market sold back off from the highs but still managed to close 15 cents off the lows.  Palm oil trading and weather concerns will drive this one near term.  I think $9.00 in November is still a real possibility.

Rice – Lower all day but at the end the sellers weren't there and the locals were able to get the market back to unchanged and even higher in November by a whole 2 cents.  It is still dead here and I see nothing to change that until the July goes off the board.

Natural Gas – Another hard day down as the whole energy complex faded on concern that the stock market is signaling a slow down in the economy.  I still see this is a buying opportunity and let me explain why.  The risk here to the down side is at best 70 cents.  I think that is way too much of a break in a La Nina year but it could happen with the inventory and the economy weakening.  The risk to the upside is $4.00.  Balance the equation and you can see why I want to own this break especially for buying hedges. 

Crude Oil – Big drop today losing over $2.00 as several factors combined to make the "perfect storm" for the bulls.  In general, the storm in the Persian Gulf did not hit the oil fields there so that started the market lower and then it accelerated when it went through up trend line support.  Also concern the US economy is going to slow and thereby affect the whole world demand picture also lent to selling.  We were long futures and short calls which worked great and tonight we are slick after selling the futures and on the big break, buying the short call position.  Just like it says in the ole text book...somewhere, I'm sure of it. 

Cattle – Exactly like yesterday...we tried to go higher but couldn't.  Looks like another test of support is coming.

Dow – After three days down, profit taking and some bottom pickers came into he market today lifting the Dow higher.  It's up 120 points as I type this.  Watch out...this one could be very tricky.  If we are down hard coming in Monday morning...It could get VERY BAD!!!  We are now out for the weekend.

Cotton -  Down 30 or so...nothing to do here.  I still think it is now sideways for a while.  Long term it is the sleeper but I am talking months not weeks.

Thursday June 7th-

Corn – Fund buying and a lack of anyone wanting to stand in their way sent the market up 11 to 12 cents today.  We are about 10 cents under major resistance.  The market did break out of a small flag formation on the 30 minute chart so that is good as it indicates a test of the major resistance.  The weather remains the unpredictable thing it is so look for another flop of the forecast at some point and another break.  I think it will take a legitimate scare now to push us over the resistance points between $3.90 and $3.95 in the July.  We will cover short puts if we can get in that window.   

Wheat – No trend day today so we remain long futures and short the calls.  Still working but I would like to roll the call higher when I can.  Technically, there is no sign of a top but one has to wonder at the lack of significant buying today.

Beans – New contract highs and contract high close.  No sign of a top so let her go...

Rice – Nothing here at all today.  Sellers are still over the market but they may not be there long especially if the other grains break out.  The funds will come sniffing around and they could move this one a bunch because the commercials are already short in a short market. 

Natural Gas – Lower today on the infusion number although it took it a while to break.  This is a buying opportunity.

Crude Oil – Worked higher today but off of highs.  We could correct near term as we are in a wide trading range.  Anything in the hurricane department will take this one higher even still.  Gasoline is working on a buy signal.  If we fail to make a new low in the next couple of days, it is a low risk long.    

Cattle – Tried to rally but failed at the end as large supplies of beef remain in the pipeline.  Look for lower prices still ahead. 

Dow – Big move lower today.  Down close to 200 points.  Look for some crazy volatility here but the last three days are screaming...TOP!!!

Cotton -  Up 20 and holding in there.  Good export numbers are helping too...

Wednesday June 6th-

Corn – Bear spreading and weather forecasts kept the market under pressure all day.  Read our mid-day comments as that pretty much tells it all.

Wheat – Lower today as we needed a break and got one.  The market didn't push lower so my guess is we may head lower tomorrow but then all bets are off mid-day.  The trend is up here but it is too steep so a nice correction is possible.  I may roll my calls higher tomorrow but I will wait to see if the trend-day develops higher before doing it.

Beans – Read our mid-day comments as that tells the story here.  Beans end lower but not with a trend day down or even near one. 

Rice – More long liquidation early spelled market sell off here and commercials weren't ready buyers on the break so we dropped toward support.  Read mid-day comments here as well.  There is no reason for rice to go higher, or lower for that matter.  It is sideways and extremes should be bought or sold.  I think today was another extreme and we will see if the offers that kept the market rallying all the way back are there tomorrow.  Again, there is little reason to trade this one.

Natural Gas – Back and forth waiting on news.  Tomorrow's injection report will be watched closely.  I still see it higher and am buying breaks.

Crude Oil – A mild key reversal up today.  We could work higher tomorrow especially if the other markets can move higher.  Gasoline was down today on inventory numbers but it just open and sat there.  That is not what you want to see if you are a bear.  Look for the bulls to try and take it higher. 

Cattle – Sharply lower today as the market reels under cash prices.  Also the break in the corn enabled feeders to do some selling.

Dow – Read last nights comments.  Today we indeed got the big correction we have been waiting for.  Down 145 as I type this.  Now we see what the market does over the near term.  One thing is for certain, the interest rate move the last two weeks could put a top in this one for a while and a major correction is now a possibility.  I saw that happening later this year but the interest rate situation is enough to force it to happen earlier.  This one is worth watching BIG TIME!!!

Cotton -  Unchanged which is a good thing...lets see if we can find the resistance level near term.

Tuesday June 5th-

Corn – Market worked lower after forecasts turned milder and wetter mid-day.  Typical weather market with forecasts bouncing back and forth.  I am not a weather man so I will not make a forecast.  The overall picture is unchanged.  All in all we are in a sideways trading range and until we can clear the $3.92 to $4.00 mark in July look for the kind of day we had today.  We started one way and then turned and went the other.  The question for traders has to be risk...where is the risk?   Right now the risk is with the bears in the market but they can keep the market in check because it would be an anomaly for the market to see a major drought this year.  That is why we want to sell a good rally and still think we will get one but it may be a few weeks.

I was asked about 2008 December corn sales and if we should be ready to do them on a bounce here in the Summer.  What a big unknown.  I will probably tell you right now to do what is comfortable for you.  $4.50 corn looks really good right now doesn't it but we are looking at 18 months from here and I have to wonder if 50 cents up would establish a huge risk to the downside given demand trends, energy prices, and the increase in costs that are coming.  So if you are comfortable with $4.25 to $4.50 corn for 2008 knowing about costs as you do today, you might certainly want to use a bounce here in the summer to get some sold.  The only way I would do it is if I was willing and planning on buying options or the position itself back around harvest in 2007 or when the market told me to lift the position. 

Wheat – Up 7 but again way off of the highs of the day.  The trend is up but the buyers are having sticker shock.  Look for a correction at some point here but it should be bought.  If it happens, give it some time and room.

Beans – Up 12 1/2 with new highs.  Looks like the market is sure corn acres are even higher and bean acres are lower.  $8.75 to $8.85 is resistance.  I can make a good point for $9.00 and will buy breaks.  We are short July Puts here and the market has really moved away so it looks like they will expire worthless.

Rice – A quiet day but with more volume than we have seen is a while.  Now I know traders will say that is not true but for me, spread trading is unrealized volume.  Yes, I know it is volume on the data sheets but what I want to see is out right trading not the volume for spreading.  While overall volume was lower today, the lack of spreading activity is note worthy and the action of the market looked OK to me.  Today's high is resistance and a close over it is supportive to test recent highs.

Natural Gas – Down 13 with a decrease in heat in the forecasts.  We could correct more but guys, this is a shot across the bow...do not be short here.

Crude Oil – Market correction today with the July down 62 cents.  See why I sold those calls yesterday???  With only 10 days left in them (9) starting tomorrow, the market remains vulnerable to a break here but the fact is, a move toward $70 a barrel is likely in the next few months if not weeks.  We will buy in the calls on a break in the next few days and longer term we want to be long.

Cattle – Up 40 with no real news I can see on the the technical picture.

Dow – Down 80 today and it broke early and then ran out of sellers.  No real push lower.  That could still come tomorrow but history says that tomorrow may be a reversal.  We couldn't go higher, needed to break and watch the sellers and now that we have see what they have, looks like we could charge back toward the highs in the next few days. 

Cotton -  Up strong today and looking at resistance again.  Can it get through it??  Well nothing would surprise me but there better be fire below or we will still hold in the sideways range for a while.

Monday June 4th-

Corn – Mixed today with old crop lower and new crop higher.  That may reverse tomorrow as the crop condition report is unchanged from last week.  It is going to take some additional weather problems to push down yield potential as right now, we are on track to increase the carryover....not reduce it.  Look for a lower market overnight if weather doesn't change much before tonight's opening

Wheat – 9 cents off the high in this volatile market.  Wheat could get a bounce from winter wheat conditions being lowered but still it looks like the market needs more yield data.  We are long futures and short calls...working so far!!!

Beans – A little lower with no real news.  I'll buy a nice break here.

Rice – Commercial buying on today's break as the market is going no where.  When it does, it will be obvious.  Another 10 to 20 cents down is not out of the question as the buyers are set to buy it later more than sooner.

Natural Gas – 31 cents higher today as Natural Gas rose on weather concerns.  It is Hurricane season and traders are going to be very nervous.

Crude Oil – Another strong day but we are headed for resistance and a probable break after weather concerns for the Persian Gulf are better known.  I sold more 66 calls to covering long positions as there are now 11 days left before expiration.  A break from here will send those call values plummeting.   Do not be short here but taking some profit off the table is not a bad idea.

Cattle – Quietly higher.  Cattle has some risk in it but again, if corn explodes higher, cattle will have to follow.

Dow – Up 8 and still holding under resistance.  We are long and looking to sell a nice rally or buy a good break.

Cotton -  Down 50 as this market now settle in sideways.  This could last a long time...

Sunday June 3rd-

General Comment – There was not as much rain as expected and the forecasts remain threatening on the Sunday runs; however, the early morning run tomorrow will set the stage for the day.  Right now it looks like our first real threat of a drought could be setting up and if it does, Corn and Beans will pop higher.  It is going to be violent and all eyes will be on any weather forecast.  At least right now, looks like the setup is for a firm day on Monday but again if the morning runs show more rain and less of a heat dome forming June 9-10 then we will see selling pressure but the open at 9:30.  Don't you just love weather markets???

Friday June 1st- Look for a Sunday Night Update

Corn – A little lower with consolidation.  It is a weather market so enough said.  Read our last two nights comments for more and come back Sunday Night for another update.  It is that time of year when the weekend weather will be the deciding factor coming into the next week so any major comments tonight will be worthless by Sunday night at 6:30.  Look for comments by 8 PM.

Wheat – Similar to yesterday...higher but off lows.  Nothing new here...still see it higher but will be influenced by corn.

Beans – Consolidation over as beans rally.  No room for growing problems here so weather will take center stage.  Still see it higher

Rice – A little lower but dead...we might get another push down but when the run for the exit of shorts hits this one, it will be every mill...eh...I mean man for himself.  I want to thank them in advance.

Natural Gas – Down a little as the heat is moderated.  A break should be bought especially one deep enough to test the April lows.

Crude Oil – Over $1.00 higher and headed for resistance.  I sold some 66.00 Calls today on about half my position and am glad to sit back and see what happens over the weekend.  I am more than happy to let someone take my longs at $66.80 with just 14 days left to trade the options.

Cattle – Down 40 with nothing to say...

Dow – Up 19 as I type this.  Next week could be weaker at the start but a test of the highs still looks likely.  We are long the Dow.

Cotton -  Down 50 today but nothing has changed.  The current up trend is too steep so a look for the support line and an establishment of a slightly lower angled trend is likely.