Friday March 31st - 3:00 PM -   Special Requested Comment  - Ten -Year note (See below)

General Comment -  For the past year we have been talking about the markets making a plateau change that could wipe out the benefits of the farm program's CCP and LDP provisions.  Every seminar I spoke at this winter, I made the prediction that these program aspects are about to go away for the entire year.  Except for Soybeans, I think the odds of these programs being used in 2006 are slim to none. 

Today's reports show that this idea of a price floor changing to a higher level due to market conditions is well underway and I think it will continue through the whole year.  If there is a dry spell this summer and yield is affected in corn, beans, wheat, cotton and rice, I cannot emphasize enough about the explosive nature of the prices for these commodities.  I am not ready to be a jumping up and down, buy everything now bull but I do want the record to show now that we are on the verge of a 1970's type market and the next few months are going to be wild!!!!    If you need upward price protection, you should be coming up with a longer term strategy now!!!

Corn - NASS's numbers were way under the average trade guess for acres but right on the mark for stocks.  The move higher today was completed under the cry by the bears that "we are buying more corn acres"...I doubt it!!!  We may buy some but 8 cents higher today won't do it.  We need another 12 to 20 cents in the new crop to even start to buy acres.  We are long 40% and today went to 60% after the market pulled back mid-day.  I am a little disappointed we didn't see a trend day higher but that may have been too much to ask after we opened almost 12 cents higher.  Even so, today's action was strong and we still see the market higher.  We will buy more on breaks.

One more thing, if we get a 20 cent rally next week, we will probably take some profits.  I am not ready to load the boat for the summer weather market.  I think this bounce is going to come strictly off of the affects to the S&D situation.  On that note, the next report comes out April 10th.  

Bean - The market sold off today under the weight of huge acres but we are still 20 cents higher than the contract low.  This means we remain sideways.  Can we make a new low...yes but where is it going then???  With weather concerns dead ahead and a drought monitor not showing a whole lot of improvement in subsoil conditions, this break is our chance to buy options.  Next week we will be more aggressive buying some of them but we are going to let this selling pressure abate first.

Wheat - Weather remains the main factor.  Today's trade was good but can it hold next week?  That question will be answered by weather forecasts. 

Rice - NASS did it...they actually addressed the issue fairly.  They are probably still wrong but not nearly off as I expected.  We went through the report at 33% long and went back to 50% long during the day.  I liked the trading action today because the action was a "v" type day.  Started near highs, sold off, then rallied at the end back toward the highs...that is a good sign for more buying ahead.  We can still buy acres here as well but why?  It is not going to happen at $9.20 or even $9.50 for that matter.   

Cattle -   PB is at 16% tonight after the market made a new low...this is called divergence and could indicate the lows are upon us.  Yes, we were down 150 points today but that was directly connected to the grain markets and the cost of feed.  We are looking for a buying opportunity and you should be very proud of our restraint.   As I said all this week, we are going to let the market tell us to buy it and that has not happened yet.  Next week....it may!!!  Be patient.  Do not try and pick a bottom. 

Natural Gas - We still see the market as sideways.  This could continue for another 6 weeks and then the market accelerate into new lows.  I'm not ready to call it one way or the other but usage seems to be keeping up with supply.  We continue to see inventory way above last years level and the 5 year average but the usage is higher right now and that seems to have the market holding this level.  If we dip under $7.25 in July, we will think about doing some more options. 

One more thing, today was the last trading day of the quarter and the funds may have sold some today to trim losing positions or book some profits.  If they come right back in next week, we may pop right back to our mid-point of the sideways range.  It will interesting to watch.

Dow - We are below the 21 day moving average and are just 60 points from the nine-week moving average.  With interest rates going higher and the dollar under pressure, the Dow is pulling back.  Can we break a couple of hundred points...certainly possible.  Remember the old saying, "sell May and then go away", well it could really be true this year.  I like being out looking for sectors to buy.   

Special Request - Ten-Year Note

Next thing I know you'll be asking me for IBM or some mutual fund...maybe I should open a new site...Progressive Stocks!!!  How does that sound???  Never mind!!!

Interest rates are an animal all to themselves.  While I think the market is still going lower, there are signs that we could see a bounce in the next few weeks.  PB is at 31% so there is room for lower levels before a bounce.  Monday's absolute buy zone is at 105.27.  In general, be out or short but do not be long!!!  I said months ago the Fed will not stop until 5.00 or even higher.  When they stop, here comes the soft landing hopefully.  Interest rates will inch higher into that economic slowdown.  As I have said recently and still believe, we are headed for a recession.  When the starts to show itself, then is the time to think about getting long bonds.  That is not even close!!!

One more thing, it may be that the Fed needs this market lower before they stop raising the Fed rate.  My guess is they will get their wish.  If that's the case, this market may have a real sharp down draft in the months ahead.   

FRIDAY MORNING NASS PLANTINGS REPORT....

WHAT GOT INTO NASS????   The report this morning is bullish corn, rice and wheat.  Corn is called 4 to 5 higher, I think it will be higher than that!!!  Rice should be higher and wheat is called 2 to 3 higher.

Corn - A decline of 3.7 million acres in corn along with a decline in nitrogen usage spells a reduction of up to 1.5 billion bushels and with demand up, we will take about 60 to 70% of the carry over out of the market in this next year and that assumes no weather problem. 

Rice - California is up 4% but that is all short and medium grain.  If you take 100,000 acres out of LA. and ARK. for medium grain, this will leave under 2.4 million acres for long grain and the trade was thinking almost 2.6 million acres. 

Soybeans - 2.6 million acres higher than trade expectations.  Market called lower 4 to 6.  This down draft that is coming will setup a market totally vulnerable to weather scares.  We will buy the break but probably not today.

Thursday March 30th - 1:30 PM - USDA Planting Report here tomorrow morning

Grain Comment - No reason to say anything tonight.  The proof is in the pudding as they say.  We will have an update here by 8:00 AM tomorrow with the bad news...with NASS it always is!!!!  Maybe I'll be wrong this time!!!

Cattle - Well, our speed system called it yesterday (read below).  We got intermediate buy signals at 75.15 today and took them.  We will put a stop at $75.25 for now.  PB is up to 17%...big deal...it could still roll over and head lower but maybe not.  Next few days will tell the tail.

Natural Gas - Sideways seems to be correct.  We are short some $7.00 puts in July and will just hold them hoping for a bleed down in premium levels. 

DOW - The Dollar is moving higher today and look at the Dow as it sells off.  As I write his the Dow is down 67 points but there is still 90 minutes to go in the trading day.  As we have been saying, we don't like the Dow here long-term but anything can happen in the short run. 

Wednesday March 29th - 2:00 PM -

Corn - This market continues to try and go higher but it isn't doing it in a convincing factor.  Open interest remains high and I expect it will settle in tomorrow for a narrow range type day; however, it is not unusual to see a wide range here the day before a major report.  For us, we will just sit here and wait for the numbers.  

Bean - 5 cent range and nothing to really do here.  The numbers on Friday will set the stage until we get to the weather time of year.

Wheat - We tried to go higher but then sold off and finished mixed.  We need more info to trade. 

Rice - Another dull day.  We had 20 trades in May and finished down 1 cent.  Tomorrow is the last day before the planting report.  We will go through the report long but I'm not sure yet at what level.  20 to 33% is my range and options is my choice of poison.  If tomorrow is as exciting as today was, I may flip a coin!!!!

Cattle -  Again...The expansion sell off continues.  We will buy in when the market tells us and not a minute before.  I might say that one of our speed systems gave a signal that the move down has ended but it is too fast to rely on it.  PB is at 11.4% tonight but in an expansion type market, it could get into the single digits. 

Natural Gas - Look at the volatility come off of this one...We wrote several says ago that the down move had probably ended but it was no time to buy it either.  If we can get a sell off near the $7.25 in the July, we will want to start owning more natural gas.

Dow - Today's rally was just as I expected.  We are caught in this vicious cycle where the market moves higher, the Fed tightens, the market moves lower and then immediately rallies.  What gives??

First, the dollar is holding and moving higher as the Fed tightens.  The US interest rates are best in the world so foreign cash holders run to buy the US dollar and as they do, they throw off some of the cash to own securities and so we rally.  I expect the same action when the Fed raises the rate again next time around.  Where will the rate end...I think we have said all along, going back 16 months, it will go higher than anyone expects.  I have called for a 5.25 to 5.5 topping of the rate.  For now, the Fed needs to see the inflation issues cool off and the economy show signs of slowing a bit before stopping their tightening practices. 

Two things to think about. When the Fed stops, look for the Dow to move higher but only short term.  Also, the dollar will start to fall right after this happens.  If the Fed has stopped raising rates, things are slowing down and you do not want to own securities for very long after that policy change. 

We are out here but expect a new high for this move in the days ahead.  If we take out yesterday's low, there is something is in the wind...remember, if the tightening works and things slow, the market will see some longer term profit taking and a major test of the support line is highly likely.  This could occur before the next change IF things have changed for corporate America.  Right now I don't see that but there is 6 weeks before the next Fed meeting on May 10th.

Special Request - Sugar....

Sugar is approaching its contract high but is over bought and could hold where it is for a couple more days.  Even so, it doesn't have to and if you put a gun to my head, I buy it here.  PB is at 67% so it is in the green zone.  Brazil is using sugar up in its ethanol production and is limiting exports, crude is near highs and US use of ethanol (mainly corn) is increasing.  Look for the recent high to be tested but in any event the volatility is going to continue. 

One more thing, the strength index is increasing at 17% which indicates the possible birth of bull move.  If it goes over 20%, it confirms the move.  I would expect a slower bull market out of the current fundamentals and not a spiking, run away bull market.  This will be fun to watch.

Tuesday  March 28th - 8:30 PM -

Corn - All eyes look to Friday's report as determine what the supply could be if we achieve trend line yields.  I doubt there will be much to talk about until we get the numbers.  We are long 40% and that is how we will stay for the report.

Bean - Market is still sideways and we are looking for an options play.  This Friday may show a larger increase in acres than expected but on the other hand, if NASS is not aggressive in their predictions, we could have a bullish surprise here. 

Wheat - Nothing new to talk about, we will buy when we get a signal to and we expect one last push higher into harvest.  Weather patterns seem to have shifted to wetter just in time.  We remain on the sidelines looking for our chance. 

Rice - Key reversal down yesterday followed by a selling pressure today.  A lot of longs are getting out in front of the report this Friday.  Cash markets remain firm so I doubt there is much more downside here but if NASS pulls their normal trick of not reporting correctly, we could have a spike down on this report.  Then again, who knows.  For me, I'll go through the report long the only question is how long.  That could be decided by the market action tomorrow.

Cattle -  What can I say...The expansion sell off continues.  We will buy in when the market tells us and not a minute before. 

Natural Gas - Read our comments the last few days.  Nothing new to say.

Dow - I have a lot to say here but will wait till tomorrow.  Bottom line is we don't think the market is that good here but with the dollar strengthening, we may see the same action as we have the last few months...Fed Tightens, Market sells off, market rallies and makes new high for move.  When the Fed stops raising the rate...we are in trouble.  More on this tomorrow night.

Special Request - Sugar....Coming tomorrow night.

Tuesday  March 28th -1:30 PM -

Comment - Due to weather problems here in Edna affecting my access to the internet, I will update this page when I get back to Houston later this evening. 

Monday  March 27th - 2:30 PM -

Corn - I think some traders like the idea that funds have taken off a large percentage of their position.  That sets up some buying power for the funds later on.,  Today's bounce doesn't mean much but I think we are going to hold the recent support zones so buying against that level will be our strategy.  This weeks plantings report is going to be watched by everyone. Again, I doubt it is that bullish but my ideas are based on NASS and the way they get their numbers.  This market mat start to really slow down over the next few days in regards to volume.

Bean - Nice move up today.  Talk of Chinese currency strength and a lower Brazil crop was mentioned on the floor today.  We have been very vocal over the past 12 months talking about China needing to devalue their currency.  They have stepped up that process lately because of a visit by two US Senators and a high level China visit to the United States coming up.  Long term, it has to happen and that will open up demand for soybeans by China.  We want to buy calls here but more for the weather scare possibility than anything else right now.

Wheat - Well, we bought the close on Friday and sold the open this morning ending with a breakeven trade after the market failed to rally coming out of the weekend.   I want to own wheat here sometime but the weather pattern has indeed changed for the time being.  We will wait for a reason to own. 

Rice - WOW!!!   Big sell off day as the market had broke 20 cents at one time.  Didn't hold however, and the market turned back and finished down but certainly off of the lows.  The planting report this week will tell it all.  There is more and more talk of the total acreage of rice not changing that much in Arkansas.   The best thing that can happen here is for the acres to be down about 150,000 acres US wide as farmers are trying to decide what to do.  We need about a 300,000 acre cut to be bullish.  My guess 175,000 acre cut.  We will see. 

Going into the report, we are still at 33% in our buy back position and will probably go through the report somewhere between 20 and 33% long.  Tough call to say the least.

Cattle -  The expansion sell off continues.  PB is now to 14% and it could bottom out around 11%.  I look for the low very soon and maybe in the next three days depending on how hard we can sell off.  For you guys with guts, sell the 75 put at 175 or better.  This is risky but according to the computer, it is the best way to take advantage of the expansion bear market.  Since I am short, I will be buying straight futures here but I haven't done it yet. 

For you guys short futures, sell the June 75 put as above to have covered puts on your shorts.  This is a good way to start taking in some of your profits.  

Natural Gas - Read our comments the last few days.  You can see that I am saying natural gas is going sideways in its current trend.  Yes, sideways is a trend.  The trend is that the market stays between two price levels.  What this should indicate is that the market is going to slow down in its price range and we are going to start bleeding off some of the volatility.  This means you should buy against support and sell against resistance.  If you follow a trend following system, you do the opposite of what it says.  Sell buy signals and buy sell signals (that is hard to do).   The other thing you can do, is sell premium in options.  For July, we would sell the July $7.00 put when the July is below $7.25 and buy it back when its over $7.75.  I look for premium to start coming out of the options if indeed the market has entered a sideways range. 

Dow - Another slow day.  We are not trading the Dow right here and looking for a sector to trade. 

Friday  March 24th - 2:30 PM - A new special comment tonight...see below

Corn - T-Minus 7 days and counting...  Next Friday's plantings report is going to bring about a lot of position squaring and that could make it tough to trade next week.  I think the market is in the bottom 20% of its range right now which is a buying opportunity so if you are not 40% long of your base, here's you chance.  We will decide next week if we add before the report.  We are in options buying in the money calls and spending the bigger dollars for upside protection. 

One more thing...the COT report shows that the funds dropped their position almost in half.  They are down to 82,000  contracts long and the commercials have indeed been the buyers.  The small spec is up over 101,000 contracts short and guys, this is going to turn into a barn burning market with this setup this early in the year.  If you are short...get out!!!

Bean - I have been leaving off the comments on beans other than to say we see it sideways until the summer weather market.  With that as our position, this is the time to start looking for an option play on the coming weather market.  The fact the beans have not sold off any with the South American harvest is encouraging and the chart looks like it is base building.  Next week, we will send out a soybean options play for traders to consider.

Wheat - I like the action and frankly, I love the setup going into the close.  We bought it but purely as a spec trade and then we only bought 20% of our spec base position.  Why?  The weather forecasts do not agree.  The American model which has the larger following is showing more rain.  The other models disagree.  If it doesn't rain and it looks like the system is moving north with the jet stream in tow, then we could see a nice little pop here next week.  For hedgers, we got out of our base buy back but on Monday, if we open higher, we will probably get right back in. 

Rice - And another day up!!!!  The "V" bottom remains in place.  My concern is the acreage report next week.  Can NASS actually give us a bullish report...yes they can.  I doubt they do!!!   We will continue to hold a 33% long position here and look for another pull back to get more on.

Cattle -  We are approaching a major low.  Cash prices remain weak on boxed beef but the prices in the store are stimulating demand.  I am looking for a low here and soon.  It could have been today but if not, I think odds favor next week.

Natural Gas - Well....now what????   Read last night.  We talked about a sideways range with a resistance of $8.00 and support of $7.00 for the July.  Today's high was $7.97 followed by a good sell off.  If we work lower early next week, I think odds favor the sideways theory over a "V" bottom along with a strong move higher near term.  Fundamentals just don't agree with that.   We tried to buy puts today but they wouldn't give us a good enough price so we remain short the July $7.00 put with a nice profit and now we'll see if we can't milk it for more.  I think odds favor that the low is in here but things can change.

Dow - Give me a sleeping pill please!!!!  For all of the economic news and the talking heads pushing this market to go higher, this is a lack luster affair.  Near term it can go either way but longer term, we have some slippery conditions to deal with. 

SPECIAL COMMENTS - Currency

It didn't take long to get a request for another commodity.  There was no specific currency asked for so I will pick the Euro and make some comments regarding it.

The Euro has not traded out of its January range.  The weekly chart has been in a down trend since December of 2004 where it made a classic Kondratieff top.  The current PB is 48% which is about as neutral as you can get and the weekly PB is at 64% indicating a longer term upward bias to the Euro market.  The strength index indicates no trend is in place right now and the market is sideways.  A close over 1.22 is bullish and would set the short term trend higher.  Support runs at 1.18.  I would think the big "turtle" traders are using those same levels for their trading strategies.

 Our system has a bullish bias but recommends no positions unless they can be bought near support given the current numbers.  The US Dollar / Chinese Yuan peg will probably not change any time soon; however, as it does, the US dollar will will work lower.  The biggest change in valuation will be against Asian and the Pacific Rim currencies.

For you who like to look at Exchange Traded Funds (ETF), you might want to look at FAX  which is a fund holding Asian and Australian currency.  If China ever uncouples from the dollar, this might be an interesting place to be.  In the way of disclosure, I do own shares of FAX as a hedge against the dollar's value declining.  

Thursday  March 23rd - 4:30 PM - Quick one tonight

Corn - Sell off today is right into the bottom 20% of the current sideways range.  Look for support to hold at this level on down to $2.16 in the May.  We will buy more at the $2.16 level.

Bean - I see it sideways until the summer weather market.

Wheat - Read last night.  Today's close is just under the retracement level.  We need rejection tomorrow or the market will move toward the $3.37 level.  We took off all positions on the open today as the market took out yesterday's low very quickly.  We took about a 4 cent loss on our whole position and we will be patient for the coming bounce.

Rice - Another day up with good export numbers.  Can we "V" bottom???  Tomorrow might tell us.  We will look for a pull back to buy more as we hold our 33% long position.

Cattle -  Maybe consolidation will last longer than I thought.  We have no positions and we will look for a reason to trade it next week.

Natural Gas - If I am right and we are in a sideways pattern for a while.  We are in the sell zone above $7.80.  Since we are short the $7.00 put, we may buy the $8.00 put if we can get a short term sell signal.

Dow - We pushed for the lows of the week today but didn't get through them.  We need to watch them tomorrow as the market is setup for a bad day tomorrow.   I won't trade it right now because I have my plate full already but on a day trade, I would look for downward pressure here especially if we take out today's low.

Wednesday  March 22nd - 2:30 PM 

Corn - Not much follow through today as we did nothing compared to the last few sessions.  I doubt there is much more to the downside but you have to admit, this is an interesting market.  Let's talk open interest.  Yesterday, open interest went up almost 9,000 contracts.  The day before on the big break, open interest went down only 12.  That indicates a change in ownership as sellers gave it over to new buyers.  Yesterday, the selling wasn't there and we rallied sharply with the increase of contracts.  My guess is that the commercials are big players in this price range and the LOWS ARE IN!!!  We will buy on a break.  We have a plan and you in the service should listen daily now to the update as we get ready to buy in more positions.  With the March 31st planting intentions dead ahead, we have some time.  Remember, the NASS system is archaic at best and NEVER right.  In any event, we will trade their numbers right or wrong.  Look for acres down 1.2 to 1.5 in their report and I think the trade is expecting more of a drop.  Odds favor a bearish response and I can say that 9 days before the report.  Again...we have some time here.

Bean - I see it sideways until the summer weather market.

Wheat - No trend day and in fact, this market looks like it wants to test the next level of support which is at $3.45.  That represents a 62% retracement and could be a technical buy IF the market holds this level on a test.  We went up to 40% long here so we still need to buy some more but we will see how the market trades against the major level of support.  If $3.44 is taken out, I see nothing to help the market from falling to $3.37.  I'll drop back to 20% long if it looks like that is going to happen and we may take it all off depending on weather information.

Rice - Third day in a row up but with little volume.  The follow through buying looks to be short covering as open interest fell on the rally yesterday by 550 contracts.  We are getting back to a manageable level of open interest as the funds have lowered their positions in the market for now.   We remain long 33% believing the market will not make a "V" bottom.  Talk about NEVER getting it right.  NASS NEVER, NEVER, NEVER gets rice acres right.   I would expect a bearish report on the 31st and once that down draft is over, it will be time to add to positions.  This bounce could continue another 2 days or so but we would expect a test of the recent lows and maybe that will coincide with the March 31st planting report.

Cattle -  I don't like the close here at all.  We had dropped some longs putting us at an 80% short cash position and today we went back to 100% short in the cash.  No choice.  The PB dropped under 20% which indicates a possible expansion of the move which could mean another 100 to 200 points down fairly quickly.  Today's high becomes resistance and there we would go back to 80% short.  The fundamentals are bearish and we will ride this as long as we can.   

Natural Gas - Another do nothing day as the daily ranges are dropping.  This would indicate a slowing of the volatility and could indicate that indeed a sideways trend is next for Natural Gas.  I think odds favor that the lows are in even with the large amount of gas in storage.   We will buy this one if it drops into the lower part of the sideways range.

Dow - Yesterday's reversal got blown out of the water today as the market failed to follow through on the selling.  Near term I still see the market higher but yesterday's low needs to be watched the next few days. 

Tuesday  March 21st - 8:30 PM 

Corn - Good rally today with a trend day higher.  We have had several trend day down formations the past two weeks so we were due for a correction.  Comments from the floor suggest commercials were the buyers today but the real feature was a lack of selling by the funds.  The fact is it is still too early to sustain an all out bull rally.  The point we also want to make is that we feel a major change in price levels is going to occur the next 12 to 18 months and the downside risk is non-existent.  Less than 10% to be exact.

We will wait for a buy signal to add to positions.  We sit 40% long in options and will hold them into May before trying to move them into September for the heart of the weather market. 

Bean - Nothing new here.  I see it sideways until the summer weather market.

Wheat - We pushed our position to 40% long based on the chart when we bought yesterday at $3.49.  So far so good but I am still not the most comfortable of longs just yet.  here in the night trade (as I type this) we are up another 2 cents.  I would love to see a strong trend day here.

Rice - WMP - No change    It appears the washout yesterday balanced the books for now.  The market erased all of the losses yesterday and establishes yesterday's low as support near term.  We are long her 33% and will wait to see how the market trades near term.

Cattle -  Cattle couldn't do anything today as the market is consolidating the losses of the last several weeks.  We dropped our position to only 20% long given the current technical information.  We could pop up near term but it should be sold.  We would like to see one hard push down so we could start buying again but for now we will stay out looking for direction.

Natural Gas - A little higher close today as the market is settling in.  I think we are headed into a sideways period of time and that will be followed by a push higher but it could be weather related later this year. 

Dow - Remember yesterday...I said "Slow day...no comment".  Well, today was a massive key reversal down and tomorrow is a key day.  A lower close on the day tomorrow especially below 11,200 may bring on a bigger set back.  The fundamentals are confusing and I can see it either way but long term, I see economic problems and we may see a bigger slow down and recession in the next 12 months.  We are out looking at specific sectors.

Tuesday  March 21st - 1:30 PM - Full update later tonight

Quick Comment-  The questions tonight will be who bought and why???  We will get some floor traders comments and come back with a full update later tonight.  Today's bounce was across the board and just as suggested, it was a sell the rumor buy the fact.  The long term drought indications have not changed any so we need to see a full pattern shift or we can climb right back up to recent highs.  For our part, we want to buy this break but will be patient.  One day of bouncing may or may not signal the end.  But I do like the corn tonight.  A trend day from the get go and rejection of yesterday's sell off which by the way, saw open interest not change at all.  A change in ownership only and today's bounce may be a sign that the lows for this break are indeed in.  Today is why we chose to not liquidate our position but to adjust it in the corn and rice.  So far so good!!!

More later tonight......

Monday March 20th - 2:00 PM - 

Corn - Isn't this fun!!!  As we said last night, there wasn't near enough liquidation in corn based on the COT and today it raised its ugly head.  Who is going to buy this one now?  It will be the end user who hasn't stopped buying it but not fast enough to absorb this kind of selling.  We are probing for a low and I think it will be major low at that.  Weather is fickle.  I would not be selling this market here with the summer of major demand and scared traders dead ahead.  We have rolled our trade into into options and will buy more on a strong buy signal.  Is this a buying opportunity???  YOU BET IT IS!!!!  We remain long with 40% of our position and now all of it is in options.  We will buy more when we get a good reason to own it.  Don't forget, we are closing in on that planting intentions report which is March 31st.

Bean - Nothing new here.  I see it sideways until the summer weather market.

Wheat - I said last Thursday that this should be a "sell the rumor buy the fact event for wheat".  So far, I'm dead wrong but the weather is still wet right now.  We bought another 20% today at $3.49 pushing our position up to 40% of our base position.  This is buy back only and NOT spec.  You speculators must let the market turn before owning.

Rice - Washout today as the market continues to move sharply lower.  Open interest is still too high and makes wave selling more likely.  Cash prices are holding so the basis is really getting good for us to buy back sold positions.  We sold cash and have bought in some of those sales using futures.  We are through until we see the market turn back up.  Our down side target was $8.12 in the May and that was hit today.  Remember, a target is not a sign of a low it is just where the market should trade.  It doesn't mean it can't go lower.  We will let the market tell us it has turned.

Cattle -  The bounce today had nothing in it and it looks to me like new lows are ahead.  No reason to own more than we have.  We are short 40% still having bought in 60% of our shorts (read earlier comments); however, I'm thinking I'm wrong right here and may adjust the position to a 50% coverage just to make it a 50-50 trade.  A move to $75.00 is not out of the question but odds are not real high either. 

Natural Gas - Market closed right on its low today as the market is under pressure from the crude oil.  Looks like we will test the lows here again.

Dow - Slow day...no comment.

Sunday March 19th - 8:00 PM - 

General Comment- Quick comment here on Sunday night

Last Friday's trade saw no change to the current condition of fund liquidation.  The COT report didn't show that big of change so more liquidation is still possible.  As I write this on Sunday night, the markets are a little lower due to weather especially in the wheat.  I think its done about enough correcting and should stabilize in this range to maybe 5 or 6 cents lower.  There is no reason to do anything to our trading position so we will let Monday's trade occur with no further changes than what we did on Friday.  Cattle was lower on Friday with some persistent selling on the close able to take the market down to test long term support.  No sign of a bottom in this market right now.

Natural Gas is also a little lower here Sunday night so we might see a test of support dead ahead. 

Thursday March 16th - 2:00 PM - 

Corn - SUBSCRIBERS---RECOMMENDATIONS MADE TONIGHT ON PFM MARKET WATCH

Well...so much for sideways into the plantings report.  The break today is right down into last weeks range of the March corn futures.  What we call "Accordion trading".   That is the tendency in a market with an oversupply for the nearby futures to fall into the range of the previous or spot month's last week of trading.  In many cases, all the way down to the actual close of the spot month contract.  In this case, that would be $2.18.  Today's close in May was around $2.24 1/2.  That would indicate 6 cents more down from today's close.  It is not that far away; however, I am not suggesting this will be the low of this move either.  Remember the open interest held by the funds.  155,000 last week and 166,000 the week before.  That is dropping big time as the funds dump corn in a stop loss reaction.

So what is going on?   We said a few nights ago...rain makes grain and the forecast is a wet one next week with good rains over the plains and Mid-west.  Yes this is March but when you see the soil recharged with moisture, you can just feel the producer thinking about more acres of corn if conditions are right.  With about 500,000 acres able to go either way in the last few days of planting, once those planters roll and they are in good planting conditions, odds go up that the farmer is just going to keep planting corn and then we have a problem with too many acres planted.

All in all, I still like this break.  We have not bought any more positions so we still are holding 40% long with 20% in futures and 20% in calls.  With the current delta, that makes us about 27% long on a bushel to bushel basis.  We will change this trade up a bit.  I think we have some time on new positions so we will let the delta work for us long term.  Patience is a real virtue now.

Bean - We are still sideways and for you who have guts, you could buy this market and put stops under the lows and not risk that much near term.  It is in general one of the few lower risk trades soybeans ever offers.  I 'm not doing it but it is there.

Wheat - Good rain is on the way.  This should be a sell the rumor buy the fact event for wheat.  While this will help we have way too far to go and wheat traders who are short do not want to miss this break.  We will buy another 20% at $3.49 tomorrow in the May looking for a different type of week next week.  Then, we will get into sell mode as we head into April. 

Rice - SUBSCRIBERS---RECOMMENDATIONS MADE TONIGHT ON PFM MARKET WATCH

We continue to go lower and with current cash prices where they are, we are getting some of the best basis levels we have seen in months.  We would be selling cash rice here if you have it and move it all to futures at this level.  Nothing else has changed for me.  Notice that May has now fallen into the March range in the last week of its life at deliveries.  This action is usual in a heavy supply condition.  July may do the same thing but that is 6 weeks away.

Rice Mills appear to be buying rice for next year already on the cash side so they can have something to start the year.  For us  it remains a question of planted acres this year.  We still see Texas down 40,000 to 50,000 acres but Arkansas's acres will be the main factor.  We want to buy this break but will not try and pick a bottom.  We remain 33% long in our base position and are rolling cash into futures and would recommend that if you haven't already done so.  Long term....nothing has changed.

Cattle -  We didn't get the follow through like I wanted so we may need to test the lows here.  Odds would favor a new low if we trade close to the existing low; however, a higher close tomorrow headed into the weekend could indicate the exhaustion of the selling.  PB is up to 23% after being down at 11% so you can see some divergence is starting to show up.  Even so, there is no sign we have a low and the fundamentals remain bearish with cash cattle off and boxed beef prices down $3.00 from last week.  We have bought in 60% of our short position and will wait for a buy signal to get the rest of the short covered.

Natural Gas - The numbers today were neutral but the market moved higher on short covering.  This rally should be sold but it might have a little more in it.  It looks like Natural Gas has finally worked off enough of the bearish fundamentals that it can once again be influenced by crude oil.  While I am still short the $7.00 July put, I still am in a losing position.  I think the market is get quieter but that is not going to be evident until we see where this rally stops and if the lows can hold on the subsequent sell off.     

Dow - Higher but slowing in its advance.  Nothing new for us.   Near term our bias is for higher prices but a high could come at anytime near term.

Wednesday March 15th - 2:00 PM - 

Corn - When you have a reversal day like yesterday, you want to see the market move on higher.  It didn't.  In fact it reversed right back down but it did close off of its lows.  Here is my thinking.  This market maybe settling in and could die over the next two weeks, moving sideways into the acres report on March 31st.  Today's high and yesterday's lows now become restrictive.  Let's see what the market has in it the next few days but for now, we'll hold right where we are. 

Bean - Nothing here yet...sideways remains the action.

Wheat - Today was interesting and has my attention.  We worked lower but ended off of the lows and close to unchanged.  The low of $3.48 in May is long term support and the market is setting right on the 9 week moving average.  If the weather starts to dry out again, there is going to be rush back into the market.  We remain long 20% of our buy back right now looking for direction near term.  There is still a long way to go on this one.

Rice - We worked a little lower today but at the close the market snapped back to down just a couple of cents.  We still have no change in advice here.  While we want to own it long term, near term we can see the market work off a little bit more.  We sit long 33% of what we need to own before things change and guys...things are going to change!!!  We just nee some time to work this overhead position off. 

Cattle -  Well...so much for a head and shoulders formation on the 30 minute chart.  That was busted early this morning when we crashed down through the $78.25 level and then proceeded to make new lows for the move in a stop run that looked very much like an exhaustion push.  No reason not to buy it and the buy presented itself at $77.95.  We didn't take it however because we are already long enough at this point.  The market turned off of the break and shot right back up rejecting the new low and finished up on the day with a hook reversal up.  Tomorrow needs to be an up day and if it is, we will have some decisions to make.  

Natural Gas - The market closed the gap yesterday and today just played with it.  Crossing the gap a second time to the down side only to close again over it.  I have no confidence in this market right now but I don't see a major push up based on fundamentals.  Tomorrow's injection numbers will have an impact

Dow - More movement higher as the market continues to see good guidance and results.  Funny, these numbers 5 years ago would have been the pits but they are good today.  Anyway, I see a test of the long term highs and a chance we cross them.  I am amazed at the amount of people who think this market is going to go a lot higher as the Fed stops raising the rates.  Why would the Fed stop raising rates???  Because they need to spur the economy!!!  Why would they need to do that??? You get the idea!!!  This rally should be sold but it could take weeks to get it setup correctly.

Tuesday March 14th - 2:30 PM - 

Corn - Reversal day today as corn didn't like being under$2.20 in the front month.  Cattle inventories remain large and feed yards are going to by grain in large quantities until we can get through some of that glut.  The near term demand will keep pressure on the market to stay above that $2.20 level.  In May, I think we will hold the $2.25 level long term just as I stated last night.  We are still long 40% with 20% of that in calls and will probably modify that position in the next few days.

Bean - Beans led the rally today.  We may be in a position now to ay that beans are not going to make new lows until the weather pattern is more sure.  .

Wheat - We waded back in with only 20% of our long position today after setting out almost 20 cents of this down move.  We want to buy more but need a technical reason and we don't have it right now.

Rice - WMP - Unchanged.  

Market broke big today falling through support which I think is good for us long term.  As we have been saying...this is going to be tough to trade until we have a better idea of the planted acres.  We remain long but are back to 33% of out base position for producers buying futures to replace plantings in 2006. That means they are short 66% and in need of this break.  We'll see what open interest does near term and get ready to start buying the break slow but sure.

Cattle -  If you look at the 30 minute chart, you will see it (Click on link and then hit back button to return here).  There is an upside down head and shoulders forecasting  a bounce to $81.00 on the June contract, IF... we can hold above the 78.25 level.  We think it might be a good trade but tomorrow needs to be an up day if we are going to increase our long position more than we have at this time.  Yes, we bought more cattle today bringing our position up to 60% long of our base position we need.  Remember, we were short and this is not a long spec position as if we were trying to pick a speculative bottom.  If you try that, it may work based on what we see right now, but buying in a short position lets me sleep just fine tonight, will you???

With 60% bought in, we now change gears as we must have a buy signal before buying another 20%.  That point is at $79.40 tomorrow and if its hit, we will stay with it as long as there is a close over 79.05.  In other words, we will get stopped in with a 79.40 stop but then get stopped out of just that 20% position trade on a close under $79.05.  This is called probing but we feel it is time to do that as we try and get more of our position in place.  THIS WHOLE POSITION WILL BE A SHORT TERM TRADE.  This is because the market needs to rally to find the bulk of the selling.  I'd love to see a "V" bottom from this level but don't see it right now.

Natural Gas - "First things first, lets see if we can close the gap."  Please read last nights comments as they hold true here on today's trade.  We closed the gap as I expected and then we sold off making new lows, but that was a bear trap and the market moved right back up, made new highs for the day and then closed above the gap at $7.16.  Is the bear move dead???  Probably not!!!  Where is it going to go on the up side near term???  That is the question and given everything that is happening, a 50 cent rally is going to find willing sellers with the current fundamentals.  Even so, there are a lot of things that can change in the Gas market so we'll need to use our head. 

In general, this is the rally we have talked about over the last two weeks and while we want to sell it near term, we want to own this market long term.  I'm still of the opinion that we could trade sideways for awhile with the lows in place.  There are a lot of people who don't agree and I can understand why.  Bottom-line - This market may be coming into a sideways range that is holds for months.  With the gap closed, I'm more comfortable being short but don't want to be in any positions right now.

Dow - A good day up setting us on a path to test the highs again.  I think we can move higher near term but longer term, I don't like this market.  Once the Fed is finished, the whole world thinks the market is going to be unleashed.  I am not one of them.  I still see recession ahead but it could be several months away.

Monday March 13th - 3:30 PM - 

Corn - Rain makes grain...that was the cry from the floor of  the CBOT as good rains moved across the heart land and some of the driest areas of the Midwest corn belt.  So what???  It is only March.  We will buy this break but we will also give it a chance to work on down.

Bean - Nothing new here...won't own it until we can see a drought scare on the horizon and that condition is not close.

Wheat - "I sold all wheat position yesterday..."  That was what we wrote last Friday and as we dumped all wheat positions last Thursday.  Read last Friday's comments as they still hold.  Wheat has a long way to go but the change in weather patterns may be perfect to bring in a good crop of wheat.  We will stay out for now but want to buy this break especially if we can see the weather not changing longer term to more wet pattern.

Rice - Nothing today except on a day when everything else was lower, rice held pretty good.  We still want to own breaks and would like to see a good one.

Cattle -  PB remains at 11% and we bought another 100 head of fat cattle (June) today at the close.  I'm willing to buy another 300 over the next few days as this market remain oversold.  Today's action shows the first day in 9 where the close was higher than the open.  Odds favor a bounce over $79.85 near term and remember, cattle carry high odds of a "V" bottom so any bounce that catches traction could be a real nice pop. 

Natural Gas - We mentioned the $7.11 gap in April the day it happened.  Today's bounce almost got there and can be considered a test of the gap.  I wrote back then and will say again, I think this gap must be closed; however, after that, nothing is for certain.  I think we could roll right back over and test the lows here again or we could bounce another 50 cents or so to see where the profit taking by the shorts end and where new sell emerges.  Tough call.  First things first, lets see if we can close the gap.

Crude Oil -  What a ride.  Who knows!!!!

Dow - What a nothing day.  We remain clear of the the indexes with the market looking for overall direction.

Friday March 10th - 1:30 PM -   Sorry, no update yesterday due to schedule

Corn - The S&D report came in pretty well as expected. The market shot up on the rally in wheat but there was really no reason for that rally either.  The market held up in corn but not in beans or wheat.  Nothing has changed here.  Long term we are bullish but for now we would be happy with a pause in the up move to keep more acres from being planted in the corn.

Bean - Up a little today but nothing to write about.  I am not bullish near term but can sure see some reason for weather premium in about 60 days.  We are not trading at all.

Wheat - I sold all wheat position yesterday just because I didn't like the higher move and then turning lower.  Around noon today I was kicking myself but the wheat collapsed at the close today and again, I don't want to own wheat right now.  Today's action was bearish and we need a correction here.  There is a lot of time left and the weather is still going to keep the market going back and forth.  I'll buy a break.

Rice - If you look at the chart, today was a major spike and it sets up for a move lower near term.  We set on our hands today on the rally which at one time had the market up 17 cents.  We want to own it lower near term and hope we can keep the acres from being planted with lower prices, not higher ones.  PB crossed up over 50% tonight so Monday needs to see an up day to confirm a possible uptrend or new leg.  Fundamentally, I don't see it.

USDA in the report today increased long grain by 2.7 million cwt. (they don't know but then who does).  I see that Riceland foods is saying the price should not go any higher.  Ummm...lets see...the largest rice mill in the country that wants prices to stay down ( no matter what they say publicly) is now saying prices shouldn't go any higher...what is wrong with that picture.  Hey guys, I'm on their side.  Keep those acres down. 

Cattle -  We took home our first slug of long fat cattle futures.  PB is now at 11% and historically, that is a buy 100% of the time.  We bought 20% and will buy another 20% on new lows on Monday.  Yes, there are a lot of cattle out there.  Feeders are loosing money and feeder cattle should decline 10 to 15% in the field; however, the fat market is saturated with SELLERS.  That gives a short term buy signal and we will take it.  We bought the close today in the June contract.

Natural Gas - Nothing is changing for me.  Momentum is slowing big time but that doesn't mean the lows are in in just means we are going down as fast as we did before.  The fundamentals are very bearish but who doesn't know that?  For me, I want to buy gas for producers needing protection on the buy side but we must use are heads and do this over time.  I tried to take a 10 minute buy signal today for a day trade and it didn't work which indicates there is still selling on rallies in this market.  Next week could see a shift but for now, we'll buy in just a bit and hope to buy more next week at even lower levels.  By the way, this action today is indicative of a bottom so if we take out today's high, we will have a short term bottom in place.   

Crude Oil -  What a ride.  Who knows!!!!

Dow - We remain out of the indexes and looking for a break to buy the sectors.  Long term we see recession but that will be a buying opportunity. 

Wednesday March 8th - 1:30 PM -   Sorry, no Update yesterday due to traveling home

Corn - OK...This is a good break and we need to take advantage of it.  On Monday we wrote about the huge open interest held by the funds.  166,000 contracts.  Since the decline started we have seen open interest drop everyday.   This is good for two reasons.  First, it keep pressure off of new plantings into corn.  Second, it gives us a chance to get on board more fully.  May corn could trade back to $2.25 and that is where we will buy another 20% using calls in the new crop.  40% old crop and 60% new crop is our current formula.  New crop is September for us down here in Texas.  Let's hope this break keeps coming towards us.

Speculators, get ready but I think you have some time.  Demand for corn continues to increase and this Friday's report will probably show another decline in the US carryover.  This will occur every month now for the foreseeable future. If May trades below $2.25, we would recommend selling $2.20 puts as this would give you the start of a position and if we are wrong and the market can move under the $2.20 level, it will be a good opportunity to buy September futures and start getting your trade in place.  Now is the time to decide how many contracts you want to own and get your plan together.  A weather scare this year is going to be dynamic. 

Bean - Long term I would like to buy a nice break here.  If thee is a weather scare, I don't care how many acres of beans are planted, we will see a major move higher here.  Even so, based on current fundamentals, this market is a dog and we do not want to own anything here yet.  We may have some "far out" recommendations.

Wheat - This market has erased its entire loss of last week and now is poised to break into new highs again.  I like the long side right now but time is running out.  I saw first hand the wheat crops in Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas this week and if it turns off wet enough, this market is going to have a major break in it.  We need to watch it very carefully.

Rice - Still not able to close over the $8.68 level in May.  Come on mills, defend that short position!!!  My concern is that the mills figure out how many acres are in rows across Arkansas and get nervous.  Hopefully, they won't get nervous too quickly.  We are long here and ready to modify our position a little.  More on that in the days ahead.

On a purely technical note, the market bounce over the 9 week moving average yesterday but today's close is back under that level.  This could be viewed as a failure of a classic buy signal and setup the market for more liquidation.  Let's hope so!!!  We will buy a break here if we can get a good one.

Natural Gas - Our comments are not changing.  First, the move to $6.25 in April is still possible but there is no doubt the downside momentum is losing its strength.  The rally off of today's lows could indicate we need to bounce near term.  A move to $7.11 in April MUST be sold if you are long.  The fundamentals are still weak but the sellers are getting tired.  We will lift our short July put on a good bounce but longer term, we want to be buying this level if we can get to the end of this over supply issue in Gas.   

Crude Oil -  What a ride.  Who knows!!!!

Dow - Nothing new.  As I said Monday... "We want to be out of all index funds and after today we are getting out of a couple other sectors and moving more to cash.  I think a recession is very likely in the next 4 to 6 quarters."

Monday March 6th - 3:30 PM -   From Garden City Kansas

Corn - Big break today as weather changes brought about some profit taking and a solidly lower day.  The main support in May is sitting at $2.28 and we are just 4 cents away.  As I said last Friday, I expected a break before we get to a weather scare and that may be occurring right now.  I also said I thought we would close the gap at $2.44 but the market may be telling us it will challenge that gap later instead of earlier. 

OK....We are 40% long with 20% of that in calls, so we welcome a break here.  My concern is it doesn't hold and rallies right back up.  Our original design was to roll our calls into July futures on the break last week but the break didn't gain any traction.  Tomorrow we will get a good idea if there is any traction in this break.   $2.24 is going to be very strong support if we can get down through the 9 week moving average and it is there we will start to add to positions probably by selling puts in the new crop and buying some calls out there as well. 

Bean - Same ole, same ole...Nothing new here for me.  Don't like them and will not trade them until there is a reason.

Wheat - Rain makes grain, right?  Well if you have a crop to save it does.  One rain wil not save this crop and I expect a bunch of farmers to be reporting no real help with the moisture over this past weekend.  We remain long and like how the market closed today which was on its highs after the early morning break.

Rice - This market also closed on its highs but down a couple of cents on the day.  Read last Friday's comments, they remain our thoughts for rice.

Natural Gas - Read last Friday's comments.  Even with today's action we have not changed the demise of the down ward momentum.  We could drift down to the $6.25 level in April but we are not expecting this move to maintain itself over the next 4 weeks.  Somewhere in here we are going to get a nice corrective bounce and then....maybe a sideways trading range that will be boring!!!

Crude Oil -  What a ride.  Who knows!!!!

Dow - We are still calling for a big correction here and by big I'm saying back below 10,500 on the Dow.  We want to be out of all index funds and after today we are getting out of a couple other sectors and moving more to cash.  I think a recession is very likely in the next 4 to 6 quarters.

Friday March 3rd - 7:30 PM -

Corn - Market finished unchanged but close to the highs.  I expect a breakout here soon so we can close the gap in the May corn at $2.44.  PB is only 57% so it's not even close to overbought.  There remains an outside shot at a move to $2.50 before we see a good correction.  I think that correction will be based on more acres being planted than first thought as there could be a last minute shift to corn in many areas based on this price move.  For drought scare purposes, we will approach this a little different depending on what we feel the acres are going to be.  No doubt, the big factor will be the actual yield.  If farmers pull back on nitrogen, yields will not make it to the trend line even with perfect weather.

For me, I will remain long until I see the action at $2.44 to $2.50 in the May.  Tonight's COT report shows funds with 166,000 contracts long and the big short is the small specs with 100,000 short.  Commercials have now joined in the on the short side as they have adding so sales this past week.  Here is the problem, the small spec is in a losing position and if they head for the exits, we will get that big bounce we talked about.  Look for a spike in the market and if that happens, we may buy some puts for near term protection or even roll out of all longs into out of the money calls for awhile.  It is just too early for this market not to have a correction before we hit the weather scare time of year. 

Bean - Nothing new here for me.  Don't like them and will not trade them until there is a reason.

Wheat - The COT is showing a lot of room for position growth in all three positions.  We are not over bought at all and we could easily climb over $4.00 in the May.  We are still long and want to hold it for now.  A major shirt in weather and we will be running for the exits ourselves.  We will sell this rally at some point but there is no reason to try and pick a top right now.

Rice - Boy!!!  This charity looks explosive.  A double bottom on a correction and now we close right on the 21 day moving average as well as the nine week moving average.  We are 10 cents from the high on one of two rallies after the top and if that level is taken out, we should test the highs and soon.  It is hard for the commercials to push very hard.  They have been able to rid themselves of about 2,000 shorts but they remain short 5,000 contracts as of Tuesday and the last thing the want is to be pushing the market lower when they are going to need to be buying in some coverage.

We remain long 45% of our basic position and will now be buying more in the new crop November contract especially if we can close over $8.68 in the May.  We want to have some of both.  One thing is for sure, we have not bought any new acres of rice on this break.  If they want more rice acres, they are going to have to pay up for them but they have some time.  About 6 weeks.... 

Natural Gas - This is the fifth day we have closed below the gap without testing it.  Today's action could be called supportive but it was nothing to get excited about.  We have 5 more days to see if the gap can get closed.  If not, we are going to more lower and if this weeks lows give out early next week, look for a resumption of the down trend with an increase in momentum.  The momentum has slowed a lot this past week.

On the bullish side, it looks like we may be seeing some wells getting closed off.  Shutting in wells would make sense given the fact that we are going to tax storage facilities at the current pace.  The decline in inventory the past four weeks was much higher that the last four years and on warmer weather.  Seems like some producers are betting on higher gas prices down the road.  We are unsure as to where it goes from here but the technicals still point lower while the seasonal picture says we are closing in on a low.  Fundamentals are point to a lot lower price.  It is going to be real interesting.  We remain short the $7.00 July put as a hedge on gas prices for summer irrigation.  (I only need one)  With a current basis very positive for gas prices, we could lock in some profitable levels for irrigating grass.

Crude Oil -  What a ride.  Who knows!!!!

Dow - Nothing new from me.  Watch this one closely.  Like I said last night, our recommendation has been out of index funds and in certain sectors but as I write this, I am looking at lightening up in several.  If we close lower than tonight's close next week, we are probably headed for a correction.  If not, we may still challenge the 11,200 high for the Dow.

Thursday March 2nd - 1:30 PM -

Corn - I'll bet many of you think I'm going to gloat and brag about today don't you?  Well, I am sorry to disappoint but   I was really hoping to buy this market lower.  We said last night to buy corn today if you are wanting to own back any of your corn and hadn't done so as of yet.  At the absolute worst you should be at be at no less than 10% and if that is only where you are, that is nothing to gloat about after today.  We are long 40% based on all of our recommendations but some of those are calls and while they did great today, I must admit, I wish I would have pulled the trigger on rolling calls to futures and buying another 10% on the open, but I didn't so now we are back to looking for a good place to buy more.  This run has a long way to go in my opinion as a weather scare is going to be dynamic.  For now, I will continue to look for places to add.   

Bean - The funds like beans and today proved that.  There is nothing along fundamental lines that cased this run up today so now we will wait and see if the market can hold these gins.  I will say this, today was a buy signal but so was the Friday two weeks ago.  Tomorrow there had better be some follow through to the upside. 

Wheat - If you read last night we said the break was right to the support line.  While it could have corrected more, if we can push out a gain tomorrow with follow through buying and more concern about the wheat crop, we are going higher.  We are long here as well.

Rice - With the rest of the grain complex moving higher, rice was in no mans land today and unable to get off the deck until the very end.  That is OK with me.  The longer it remains down here the better.  PB is at 41% tonight and the main buy signal is at $8.59 in the May which is still 12 cents higher.  For once, I'm on the side of the commercials who love to stand with their chests puffed up telling everyone how over priced rice is.  You go guys!!!  We are long at 45% and want to buy more but we'll wait for a good signal.  Hopefully it is still 4 to5 weeks away but I doubt it.  (The longs here represent buy backs of cash rice sold.  Specs should be no more than 20% long if you are not in the cash side of the market.)

One more thing... if you look at the chart and read back you will remember we caution that rice does not make "V" bottoms.  Today's low and then reversal is a check on the first low and technically sets up a major bottom for rice on this correction.  A higher close tomorrow may indeed prove we have finished the correction and it is time to own more rice. 

Natural Gas - Well now!!!  We got some OK new today when the gas numbers came in on the bullish side of expectations but the market didn't really react and sold off going down on the day.  Then we just flat ran out of sellers.  I can't quit figure this one out just yet but the rally after another give up by the bulls tells me we may be through going down.  Just remember, not going down does NOT mean going up.  If we close higher tomorrow with good volume, I am ready to say we may pause in the down move and do some consolidation.   

Crude Oil -  What a ride.  Who knows!!!!

Dow - I just don't think we are going to get into new all time highs right now.  Today's action is not that bearish but the bulls certainly have nothing to brag about.  For now, we are out of Index funds and own a couple of sectors.  We like Exchange Traded Funds and buying sectors.  So when I say we are out of the market, I mean we are out of the general indexes.  So for the DOW we are out and looking for the market to go through a major pull back.  

Wednesday March 1st - 10:00 PM -

Corn - Today's break is back to the first buy point.  If you have no corn on, this is your chance to get to 10% right now.  If you are already 40% or more, just stay with it.  The next buy point is $2.27 in May and a person should use that as a place to get another 10% on.  This number will change over the next few days but it should hold for a least 3 days anyway.

There is still no room for a drought scare in this market.  With ethanol and China factors remaining, this is another buying opportunity but unless you have no corn on at all, we'd wait for a test of $2.27 to go longer.  By the way, that test may not happen anytime soon but the system is setup for it to be a possibility. 

If you did what we did and are long 20% in calls and 20% in futures.  We will sell the calls and buy futures if we can pull back and try to test this level in the May.  Long term, we remain friendly.

Bean - I'm about to quit writing on beans.  I don't see them going higher until there is a weather scare.  On a big break, I would buy some for a drought concern but not right now.

Wheat - The break today is right back to the support line.  Major support is at $3.56 so there is room for a nice correction here.  Doubt it happens but it could.  I see one more hard push higher and we will probably use it to do some selling of cash and setting up some options later in the year.

Rice - Open interest is down 11,900 from 13,500 or so.  This is not a real clean out and we have seen spreads up but not by much.  200 or so.  I'd like to see the open interest under 10,000 but doubt that happens anytime soon.  We are 4 weeks away from acreage reports and with 200,000 acres as a likely number for the drop, and I think it could be as high as 300,000 for long grain, this market is not going to go much lower.  Another 30 cents maybe.  We are 45% long and will add on this break but now we are looking for signs of bottoming and are hoping that doesn't happen before most of the rice land "on the bubble" is planted in corn, beans or cotton.

Natural Gas - Fundamentals are going to remain bearish and we are still several weeks away from the inventory number getting close to the number it was the last time the market made a low.  There is no sign of a turn so we are going to remain on the sidelines watching.  I still see another attempt to close the gap up to $7.11 but if that doesn't happen in the next few days, look out for a hard break again. 

Crude Oil -  What a ride.  Who knows!!!!

Dow - No follow through.  Looks like the traders just have too much money to pull any out of the market.  Right now, it is the cash flow into the funds that continues to keep this market going higher.  With the inverse interest rates, we are headed for a recession.