Progressive Futures -- Update

Friday March 30th -

Corn – Read our comments on Wednesday for some perspective. OK, we have the report and farmers are tearing out the grass around their houses to plant corn acres. 90.5 million to be exact. This number is way over what we were expecting and why we cautioned on Wednesday that "we don't know". I went through the report almost slick and was able to even short the market limit down early using synthetics. We explained how to do that in our mid-day comments but here they are again if you want to bone up on trading out of a market locked limit against you. Getting out limit down. The synthetics closed down another 14 cents so our opening call for Monday is now down 14 cents; however, Sunday night could take care of a lot of that. Even so, this is not over and you "NEVER BUY THE FIRST BOUNCE".

Let's Talk: As I said on Wednesday, we have a chart objective of $3.60 in the May and that is going to happen on Monday the way it looks. That doesn't mean it is going to stop going down it just means that the market will trade there. It could go a lower. Here is the other thing to remember, it is not too late to see the acres shift back toward beans and right now I would guarantee there will be some shift back.

Here are the facts: Acres planted 90.5

Acres Harvested 81.5

Yield 149.0

Total Production 12.1 Billion Bushels

TOTAL USE --- 12.2 Billion Bushels

Results in a decline of 100 million bushels from the current 752.

GUYS...BUY THIS BREAK!!!!

Two factors that the funds don't care about right now---

1) We have additional marginal land being planted so odds of a trend line yield are 25% and requires PERFECT weather.

2) The lower prices will shift acres back to beans so we won't have 90.5 in the first place.

3) Lower prices will increase demand and especially near term exports.

4) Weather premium is a negative as the current break in the market is all money and not fundamentals.

So...while the rest of the Chicken Little's run around, remember that this is not over!!! Not by a long shot.

Cash traders, we may sell corn if you can buy futures. The basis will be the key near term so get ready.

Wheat – Following corn. Right now I'd rather be trading corn but for you wheat guys, let's see what happens in the market next week.

Beans – Bullish report and as I warned, the market sold off. Today's low will be tested and soon. The market may rally early next week but we want to sell any rally here because acres will increase from today's numbers.

Rice – I called the report bullish this morning and we started out OK but at the end we are just a little lower. Rice does not make a "V" bottom so I expect this past weeks lows to be tested. Maybe not equaled but a little pull back especially if the rest of the grain floor works lower.

Natural Gas – A very cold first part of April is now forecast by our weather service and that means no break in Gas until about the 10th of April. Look for things to stay strong here but into late April we look for a break and then comes the summer rally. Looking at the ranges on the day, we see a large single day move coming fairly soon and right now, that move should be higher.

Crude Oil – Closing in the middle of the range with PB at 74%. This is not the place to buy but we are not wanting to be short here either. For now, we would buy a break early in the week if we can get one.

Cattle – Higher today with corn down the limit. I think the mid-90's remains a logical area for June.

Dow – Up 6 points on the day with almost a 200 point range...this market still looks weak and it will take a move over

Cotton – Nothing from the report as the market finished a little lower and in the middle of the range; however, a look at the inter-day market shows a "V" type of trade with a rally off the lows the last 30 minutes. Looks like we may drift a little higher near term. This is what we expected as the market looks for overhead resistance.

Thursday March 29th -

General Comment – Markets were higher today with short covering in front of the report and that was across the board. There is no reason to talk about anything tonight so we will save our efforts for tomorrow. Don't forget the Webinar in the morning.

Wednesday March 28th -

Corn – Well so much for market setup's. It looked like it would be a more quiet day but it wasn't as corn sold off heavily in front of Friday's report. It bounced off the lows after matching the lows for the move but still closed down 4 cents on the day. Someone called today asking me the question, "Everyone wants to know what you think the price of corn is going to do next week." I told him I would tell him the same thing everyone is saying, "I don't know." The market right now is on steroids as we just don't know what is going to happen when we get this report. Here are the facts, the trend is down, the PB is in a bear mode, the strength index says a bear move is underway, there is a chart objective in May of $3.60 and the market is close to its 3 month lows; however, there is major report Friday and it could be a huge trend changer or not!!!

Again, get comfortable. My guess is the report comes in at 87.0 million acres. The range of guesses is very large at 5 million acres and is ranging from 86 to 91 million acres. If we come in at 86 then we have a carryover of under 400 million bushels and if we come in at 91, the carryover will balloon to 1.2 billion. That would be bearish until we hit weather and them start thinking that a 10 bushel per acre decline in yield would drop that number to 300 million bushels so even a 91 million acre number could be bullish longer term...see why this is such a hard report to call.

Wheat – Even with the bearish crop condition report on Monday, the market shook that off and started following the beans which soared today. This market is still a follower and can't make up its mind which market to follow.

Beans – Beans switched over to a bullish trading situation today with the PB jumping over 50% but the strength index is not moving higher. I am not going to trade this one until the report is out.

Rice – Welcome to the wonderful rice market. One big player dumps his position and the market sells off but once he gets through...nothing but air. The market closed really strong today up 25 cents in old crop and new crop alike. The main feature today was late short covering in front of the big report Friday. In any event, I would not trade here until we know the numbers. If you are going to be wrong, be wrong out of the market.

Natural Gas – Up 7 cents with crude soaring. It is a hard one to call but I still see a dip before we hit the summertime market.

Cattle – Market lower in nearby and tad higher in the June. This one will be affected by Friday's number so I am out of this until we can analyze the numbers.

Dow – As I said last night, the correction is still working but with the 100 point decline today, we still need another close under 10,200 to setup a further correction.

Cotton – Up 50 points today so we did move higher and the range increased a little...very little. The report Friday will be a factor.

Crude Oil – Up a dollar today but closed closer to the low than the high. That could indicate running out of buyers which could translate into a lower move tomorrow.

Tuesday March 27th -

Corn – As I said this morning, it looked like the setup was for consolidation and indeed we got that today. The market traded entirely inside yesterday's range and closed with a non-trend day. Two more trading days until Christmas...I mean the planting report. It will be Christmas for somebody but who?? I have bought calls for May and will sit that way through the report. Id we rally any from here I may actually buy some puts which will give me a straddle going into the report but I am not planning on that move right now.

Technically- The 30 minute electronically traded chart has gone from a PB of just 4% to 46% at the close but at one time today was at 58%. The Pit number is better with a PB of 32% after bottoming at 18%. The daily number is 30% just about exactly where it was last night. While my heart says higher my head says wait a while and let the chips fall first before owning corn. I still like it higher and the charts say buy May on a move over $4.12 1/2...well thanks a lot. That is 20 cents higher then it closed tonight and if it moves over that number anytime soon it will be because the report is bullish and the horse is out of the barn. Again, get comfortable for this report. Who knows what it will actually say.

Wheat – Nothing new. Weather seems a little bearish here.

Beans – Beans down a little but they were in consolidation phase today as well. PB is at 47% compared to 30% for corn so the emphasis is still on owning beans over corn. That could change in the next week or so.

Rice – Read last night as we pretty well bared our soul. The market was a little higher today but never gained any traction. We need a move about 15 cents higher to start pulling back in some buyers.

Natural Gas – Just as I said last night, gas is working higher but this may not last much longer. Technically, it could run for another 2 to 3 weeks but the ride for the bulls is going to start getting more difficult.

Cattle – Well I spoke too soon...turns out my initial reaction of bearish was right and the market was wrong yesterday. OK...so I was wrong when I said I was wrong...go figure!!! I didn't like the report and while the market was higher yesterday, today it collapsed and gave major sell signals at the close. A move down to 92 is probable in the May and then odds favor a move on down to 90 and possibly just below that level. I think we could be on the defensive here for a month or more.

Dow – Correction phase. It will take another 200 point break to send this market back to its recent lows. I am not trading it right now.

Cotton – 25 point range last Friday...a 19 point range Yesterday and then a 25 point range today. That maybe a head and shoulder formation using ranges!!! OK...there is no such thing but golly, there needs to be something to talk about...so we will make one up and say if the range is more then 25 points tomorrow, the market is headed in the direction of close. PLEASE DON'T TRADE THAT!!!!

Crude Oil – Still no sign of a top.

Monday March 26th -

Corn – Let me start by saying, if you didn't read it or have forgotten it, read Saturday's comments. We broke hard today finishing down over 11 cents in May and over 8 cents in December. The market is nervous and there is a boat load of longs in the market who are not that strong. The commercials bought the break today but don't read too much into that. This is what they always do. Today is why we have been using options a lot in our trading strategy and boy did that work today. At the lows of the day we jumped into calls from out futures and options play and are now long just calls for our corn position and this is where we will stay. The report is just 3 days away, 3 trading days that is so the waiting is just about over and in a week we will know what the market has to deal with even though we won't know what the true acreage numbers are.

Wheat – Still looking at corn but not enjoying the swings. No change in our advice, this one will follow corn until weather forces a split.

Beans – Down 12 in November as there are nervous traders here too. I would be one of them if I were trading beans which I am not and will not until after the report. Maybe things will slow down a bit but I'm not sure I would count on that anytime soon. I still find it hard to believe that there is that big of switch.

Rice – Read Saturday's report again. Fear is a terrible way to trade and that is what we rice traders are looking at right now. What if another GMO event happens?? What if NASS comes out with an unchanged acreage report? What if... well, Hillary actually wins??? Fear is no way to live and it sure isn't anyway to trade. Technically the market is in a strong down trend. As I said Friday, there is still another 20 cents of risk and not a whole lot to be bullish about until we see the numbers Friday and even then, the reaction my be muted. As I did in corn, I am rolling into options in rice for this report. We did some movement today so if you are long futures, you may want to think about some option spreads or out right May options...here are some things you can think about.

First off, the May options have just 25 days left and once the report is in on Friday, the premium level is going to drop big time for the side of the market against the report. Since we are long and looking for protection but staying power, you might consider buying the May 9.80 Call and sell the May 10.60 Call against it for 17 or better. That equates to a 20 cent risk or $400 per contract. In general you are saying at $9.80 you are willing to be long but you doubt we will see May over $10.60 in the next 25 days.

If you don't want to use the old crop, November is the next best option play. Buy the 10.60 Nov call and sell the 12.00 call against it. This may cost you 45 cents based on tonight's closes but it lets you hold the position for now. The Maximum you can make on this trade is 95 cents so if the market explodes toward $12.00 then you will need to make some adjustments.

Frankly, I like the May play better but you will have to do some rolling in the next 25 days. If the report is not bullish, then the May trade will be a bust but if the trade is able to work back toward resistance at $10.45, this trade will work great. The nice thing is, that if the report is bearish or something else comes out in the next 3 weeks, you can only lose what you paid for the spread.

Natural Gas – We just won't break here. PB is at 56% and the market is pointing higher. The seasonal rally is also underway; however, that rally may be only 4 or 5 weeks which we are half way through. Fundamentals are bearish except for one area and that is crude's influence on the overall market. I look for higher still near term but I am not buying this rally.

Cattle – June cattle finished higher and my expectation of a bearish reaction was wrong. We need to stay over last Friday's close to maintain the firmness in the futures. Near term, we like cattle to hold at his level but a sharp rally is not that likely.

Dow – Strong rally off of the lows today sets us up to move higher near term.

Cotton – I thought a 25 point range was a dead market. How about 19 points today. Nothing new.

Crude Oil – Still going as we need oil to replenish gasoline supplies. Wednesday's report will be watched closely but right now it looks like higher prices are ahead.

Saturday March 24th -

Corn – Once again the $4.10-$4.15 window stopped the corn advance. Technically the market is well balanced and could move either direction so...

Let's Talk: As we head into the last four days before the planting report there are two things we need to remember. 1st, the acreage number will be the first side of the equation. While the USDA will put out a stocks report this next Friday, the USDA will not put out a supply and demand table until the April WASDE report. With this next report, we will have a great look at supply but the demand side will not be estimated for another 10 days. Second, weather will begin to creep into the market psyche. The production number is a factor of yield and should that yield become questionable, we are going to see a market like we have never seen.

Near term, it is possible for corn to break 20 to 30 cents from here so don't get too sure of the long side of the market. If you are trading as a spec, I would start to lower the size of your position especially if you are short. Just remember, as the market starts to move more and more during the day, you should use fewer positions because of the added risk. Even so, I cannot be short this market in any way. NOT YET!!! There is coming a time when we are going to need to get short and it will not be easy to do. Mark my words, the easy trading is over. Its all hard from here on.

Wheat – Watching corn. This could change a little after next week but I doubt it. The amount of wheat being fed is certainly going up and that will keep the two markets hand in hand for a while.

Beans – Still gaining on corn but for how long. Going into this report we are looking for beans to sell off afterward; however, there will be weather concerns before long and beans will get to ride along as well. I can't be short unless its with some cheap puts.

Rice – THE SKY IS FALLING!!! THE SKY IS FALLING!!! OK, so it not but there are those crying out to "get me out" and exiting this market as fast as possible. Funds as well as anyone who is not in the industry are worried about the GMO issue more and more. We said yesterday morning that the market may be lower on Friday after the 604 announcement and how to buy it. The market never rallied and the liquidation was on with a whopping 3,000 contracts traded. The only problem is, open interest didn't drop yesterday or for that matter, this last 3 day break. Last Tuesday, open interest was 16,190 contracts and as of Friday's close, it's 16,100. What is up with this??? Well, in the COT report we see the commercials were the buyers as the funds headed for the door. That was happening yesterday as the commercials bought the break.

We are setup to rally with the acreage report but again, what is that number going to say? How accurate will it be? It is one thing for acres to be off 200,000 from last year but it is another thing for NASS to actually say it. My guess is acres down 150,000 in the NASS report. I would expect the number to be immediately challenged by everyone (including myself) as we all ask the question of what has changed since the NASS survey.

I sold the puts I bought Thursday right at the close on Friday for a whole day of protection but it worked. Technically, the PB is now at 24%. The other part of our system shows the market stretched to the point where shorts should be covered especially looking at the report dead ahead.

It is possible for the market to sell off another 20 cents but the GMO news should and again I say should, start to be limited. We may still have some bumps but hopefully no more GMO announcements.

Natural Gas – Just a tad higher as crude keeps running. We see it lower at some point but the technical picture is starting to turn up.

Cattle – Down with the grains today. The Cattle-on-Feed report was bearish in my view especially with placements as high as they were. This indicates the current price has bought enough beef into the fall. The marketing's was higher then expected so the market may start higher but look for a defensive more before we get too high.

Dow – Still holding with the lows looking good technically but we need good numbers for March. We could go sideways for now.

Cotton – A 25 point range...I would call that pretty dead.

Crude Oil – Still in buy mode as the market looks at gasoline demand for direction.

Thursday March 22nd -

Corn – A quiet day by the close but the market is still in that phase of "circling the fire" before it goes to war. We remain long futures and short calls and may even add to that position in our last few days before the report. For now, anything can and may happen but I think these options in May are going to be very expensive going into the final hours of next Thursday. For now, we have no changes in recommendations as we think weather is going to quickly become a factor and we also see the May starting to gain on July as tightness in the cash supply starts to surface.

Wheat – Still nothing else to talk about. I do like the sales numbers reported today as we continue to see good sales demand.

Beans – More and more fear that millions of acres are moving to corn. OK, maybe 5 million acres but to hear some of these guys talk, its 20 million or so. I can not get bullish hear and the longs beans may get crushed after the report. Argentina is having a better then average harvest and Brazil is having a good harvest so far. I may go through this report with some put spreads. I tell you what I am doing next week as we head into the report. I don't know about you but I will be glad when this stupid report is over.

Rice – Down 9 to 14 cents. More down side today as the market remains on the defensive. Reports that the long grain carry over for next year could actually come in near 30 million total has some bulls pulling in their horns and frankly, I don't blame them. The technical action is horrible. In May the PB is down to 32% and the strength index is on the rise indicating a down trend is under way. When you look at the fundamentals, they remain bullish BUT there is that hanging hammer over our heads called GMO and traders see no real reason to own the market right now. This is why we chose not to be in the old crop and that remains our advice. I did drop back to 40% in the spec account today by buying some puts. Seems to make some sense here to lighten up with the technical picture looking so bad; however, rice is an interesting animal and a break in front of a bullish report is not so unusual.

UPDATE 4:31 PM...We just heard the contamination may be LL 604 which has already been approved by the USDA. This may be bullish to the market as the their should be an immediate food safety announcement saying the protein has been approved and there is no health risk. Read our opening comments in the morning and lets see how the market trades overnight. It is possible, the market takes any news about GMO and makes it bearish but this could have been so much worse.

Natural Gas – We are now setup to get a buy signal after setting up to get a sell signal...how is that for sideways. No change in our position, we see the inventory number too high and the current over sold condition by the funds may be short lived.

Cattle – Up 65 and holding in a good level. We see little risk near term.

Dow – Up 13 and holding gains. Back over 10,400 and looking for more buying help to push toward the 10,600 level. It could do it too but the buying strength that is being spent right now is working against a sustainable rally.

Cotton – Up 9 and nothing new.

Crude Oil – HUGE rally today on signs of economic growth and world demand. Up over $2.00 in the May which is what I call follow through. Buy dips in gasoline.

Wednesday March 21st -

Corn – Still higher today as the market finds where it wants to be by next Friday morning. We sold some calls against the May contract as we stated this morning we may do. These are covered calls and it caps us about $4.31 to $4.33 in the May. Hey we would take that and love the problems it creates. For now, we will just hold at that level as we climb to test the current 4 week down trend.

Wheat – Here we are following corn and will for several months so watch the corn for now.

Beans – Not much here. The chart still looks like a top is in place but the channel down could be violated fairly quickly if something is strong enough to bring that about. Like maybe a plantings report being real bullish...its possible but is it probable??

Rice – Market broke big right after the open and then died. Looks like that fund who sold about half of their position last week dumped more of it today choosing not to own rice with all the GMO stories flying around. There was no follow through to the downside after the opening collapse so technically, the market is weak but indicates seller interest dried up. Is all the bad news about over?? Define "about"!!! I think there could still be more bad news down the road but the report next Friday is still a huge issue and with talk today by some local, and I know who, that acres are not going to be off as much as is being reported, may have some buyers scared. I'm guessing he is one of them and will be covering shorts pretty dang soon. Near term, the back and forth may continue.

Natural Gas – Up about 27 cents today on a technical correction. It could become a buy signal but there needs to be more follow through. We have a bear move indicator pointing lower but that could fail tomorrow. It just isn't easy here is it.

Cattle – Dead day...down 3 and I have nothing to say.

Dow – Big day up as fed meeting brings no surprises. This market may be ready to assault the highs but once the Fed meeting is absorbed, we still have some things to work through,

Cotton – No follow through to the reversal yesterday. Look for more consolidation heading into the report next week.

Crude Oil – Crude rallied with the Dow today as the market is looking for anything to get excited about. We will see if it can hold higher tomorrow in a follow through move.

Tuesday March 20th -

Corn – After a do nothing day yesterday the corn rallied late in the day with minor fund support taking the market higher by just over 7 cents. Will it hold? We will see. For the next several days, this market is going to position itself for the NASS report next Friday. Won't we all!!!! I doubt we do much different going into the report.

Wheat – Higher with the corn but the fundamentals are still bearish here. Watch the corn and it will tell you what to do with wheat.

Beans – A little higher today with the corn. No changes in our ideas.

Rice – Very quiet today. When I look at the latest high powered guess on rice acres showing a planted acreage cut of 192,000 acres, I can only look at a cut of 12 million cwts in supply with demand needing to come down to keep the pipeline full. It still looks like the market needs to buy acres and it is flat running out of time to do that so the only thing left is to start running higher to cut off the demand. While I am not a crazy bull, how can you be short here?? I'll buy a break but the numbers next week are going to be interesting and right now, I am guessing NASS will come in with a 150,000 acre cut. That is still supportive because I doubt we can really hold the yield at current trend line levels without Clearfield in the mix.

Natural Gas – A tad higher but that is good since we were a little oversold. I still see it lower from here but time is not the bears friend.

Cattle – June cattle was very quiet today closing 37 off the high and 30 off the low. We may sit here for a while waiting on the the next direction of corn.

Dow – Up 60 points today while the FED meets. No reason to trade it until those meetings are over.

Cotton – Massive Key Reversal down today. Again, this is why I am not trading cotton. A big trader can push this market around very easily and we will go from buy to sell signals on no news at all just market reaction to someone pushing it around. We will see if there is follow through to the downside from here but again...why trade it. The time is coming but you can probably walk to Alaska and back first.

Crude Oil – WOW!!! April crude had a ride today. Exploding from down 30 on the day to up 90 in just 20 minutes only to collapse and settle right back down 30 for the day. That is because April is going off the board. May didn't go with it and finished 22 lower but it is higher as I write this in the overnight electronic session. It is currently 39 higher from the afternoon close. In general, the slowing economies has everyone a little worried and the signs of life in New York could bring about a little more buying here but we will wait as the current strength meter is with the bears and indicates further selling pressure. We will see.

Monday March 19th -

Corn – No follow through today after the hook reversal up last Friday. Nothing has changed for me as I see the market range bound until after the planting report. No reason to own except on breaks so if we see the May under $3.90, you might take a short with a small position. Remember that this could be a difficult report as I see a buy the rumor sell the fact. I also just see the the report as being wrong. I guess I could make the headlines to our Friday morning Webinar right now..".NASS IS SMOKING GRASS!" Poor guys, they just can't win.

Wheat – Lower today with no follow through...we are range bound here as well watching the rest of the grains.

Beans – Oh how they want to own beans...I think it's a mistake but I'm not short so I don't have my money where my mouth is. I see it sideways to higher into the report next week.

Rice – Well I guess this is follow through. The market had a reversal last Friday, started lower this morning only to turn around and close up 3 cents. No new news to speak of but I am still hearing acres even lower. Read our comments from last week as we have bought back to 50% and our looking for higher prices after the report.

Natural Gas – Still lower with no real focus. We need this one to work on lower.

Cattle – A hook reversal up after the last few days of selling. Looks like a top is in place but we are not ready to become big bears here. Let's let it trade for now.

Dow – Up over 100 points today as the market continues to consolidate. The money on the sidelines is coming into play but I wonder for how long?

Cotton – Quiet day...nothing new.

Crude Oil – No difference in our approach. $56 will not hold the next time but will there be a next time? We are out looking for direction.

Friday March 16th -

Corn – A hook reversal up today as the market absorbed another planting report estimate. Informa came out with a number of up 9 million acres in corn. That is under the 12 million the market has been trading. We need follow through to the upside on Monday to anchor today's reversal. In any event, today's low now becomes critical support.

Wheat – Moved higher and held based on acres form Informa. Just as in corn, we need more buying here to give credence to the numbers put out today.

Beans – Higher but nothing to write home about. The chart still looks bad but it won't break and that is usually a good sign for higher prices.

Rice – Massive key reversal up today. Informa says plantings will be about 2.7 million acres down 135,000 acres from last year. If you add in some medium grain changes, that number is about 165,000 for long grain or 11 million cwt. That would forecast a carryover of about 10 million next year and set the stage for more strength in the market. We have come back to 50% long in the spec account as of tonight and never changed the hedge account. This is still a risky play and I don't mind buying it higher. Like the corn situation, we need to see some follow through on Monday to today's reversal.

Natural Gas – A little lower but off the lows. Market looks like it could still go lower.

Cattle – If you read back you will see we sold some cattle futures and said Monday we thought the market may correct. That correction is well underway and now we look to lift short positions. The close today sets up a further decline next week but a lot will depend on the corn market as well. For now I will stay short but might be very fast to lift those positions.

Dow – Down 50 points with no real action after the first hour. More bad news ahead does not bode well for this one right now.

Cotton – "It's alive...It's alive...well, almost" Up 50 points and still looking OK on the charts. No changes from our last comments. Still not trading it.

Crude Oil – Last night I said that 56 bucks should hold and it did...but it won't the next time. Right now everything looks bearish here but that will change before too long.

Thursday March 15th -

Corn – The old statement of "never buy the first rally" held true as the market sold off today into the close. No change from us as the market probes for support. We will look to own it but again, I think it will be in two weeks as we get right up to the USDA plantings report.

Wheat – Following the corn with no other changes

Beans – More talk of less bean acres keeps the beans supported. That should hold through to the report.

Rice – There is more news on Mexico wanting certificates of no GMO rice. There is going to be a tolerable level agreed to and then the market should return to as more normal situation its just that all of this is hitting at the wrong time. It is a perfect storm and rice was lower but not by much. I don't think the sky is falling so let this pass as the market shakes loose the traders who are trading out of fear. Read last night....

Natural Gas – Nothing happening here. We are looking to own but are holding out for lower prices into the end of the month.

Cattle – Down with the corn. The market still has a firmness in it but there appears to be a top for now. Read our comments here the last few days as nothing new to talk about.

Dow – After being down 129 points, it came back top close higher and rallying going into the close. This sets up another move higher and I am owning the Dow mini futures here Actually, we bought it mid-morning on a "rejection" rally and sold it into the close. I may buy it again in the morning if everything holds up.

Cotton – No change in our opinion as the market is dead and I mean dead. The sell off from yesterday's highs is holding and will now become resistance.

Crude Oil – Still looking for 56 cents in oil to hold. Market remains weak but this too shall change. It is only a matter of time.

Wednesday March 14th -

Corn – After yesterday, today's early sell off was really making the charts look horrible for corn but once the May closed the gap from the January S&D report, the market turned and rallied 8 cents off the lows and that is what we call a spike. With any follow through tomorrow, the market is going to look a lot better and in fact may have put in the lows until we know what the planting report says March 30th. I am, sell short calls but if we start to close higher tomorrow, I will be out of them and out of the market waiting for the report.

Wheat – Following the corn with no other changes

Beans – Off the lows but not near as decisive as corn. No changes from our comments the last several days.

Rice – Down 42 cents....YIKES!!! A real simple truth is learned from the rice market today. Don't get too far one way or the other as it can have killer effects. One of the big funds dumped rice today and the market tanked as the locals and commercials got out of the way. We never hit limit down which is really something. The fund sold early and then the market hit stops sending it even lower. Spreads widened and tonight we are sitting with a market that looks like it has a major loss of confidence regarding demand. Imagine that!!! We also heard that milled rice prices were lower on the offer sheets today.

Let's Talk: Rumors that Mexico is taking US rice off the shelves surfaced today and right or wrong, the market is just plain skittish with the current GMO atmosphere out there. A very large (Blue) commercial is short a bunch of puts in this level in May so I would expect the market to have a hard time going a lot lower near term but another 20 cents is not out of the question. I think of this as a buying opportunity. Acres will be down and believe it or not, the sky is not falling. I bought rice at the lows today for our spec account taking it bank to 40% long and will buy another dip as well. Hedgers should remain at 50% on the buy back. The only question for me is do I move back into May now??? If I get the spread a little wider, the question will be answered for me. Unless we have been led down a totally wrong path by straight out deception, this GMO issue will be done by the time we get to the planting report. At this level, the risk is small in ownership but there still is some risk for sure.

Natural Gas – A little higher today but we still are looking for a lower move to own.

Cattle – Nothing to say. Market finished off a little with no real news.

Cotton – 40 point range today closing down 6 points with nothing to report or change our minds. Read our recent comments.

Crude Oil – Up a little with no real conviction one way or the other. We may see one more push toward 56 dollars but I like the long side here near looking out into July.

Tuesday March 13th -

Corn – We said last night that the technical picture was looking bad and at one point today the corn market was down 7 cents but then the bean/corn spread reversed and beans headed south while corn came back up off the lows. This makes the technical action not as bad as it was looking last night but still not that great. The market remains overbought and bleeding off some of the open interest. We are not changing any recommendations here and want to be flexible going into the last 10 days before the report. I like owning the corn AFTER the report and I still doubt there is any real strength in the market until then.

Wheat – No changes...read comments from last night.

Beans – As I said last bight, a break here is possible down to $7.60 in November which is another 30 cents lower. Going into the report I expect another push as traders make sure they are long some beans in case there is a mega-shift in acres.

Rice – Last night I complained at no volume...today there was some but it wasn't much and the market found sellers. Have we run out of buyers??? Maybe for now but I think the debate on acres is going to only get more intense so I will still buy the break as a speculator. We are now hearing of more then a 20% loss in long grain acres but guys, I cannot imagine that NASS will come out even close to that type of a number. I'll tell you right now, I expect an 8 to 10% cut in the March 30th report and whatever the USDA comes out with will be the highest number for the year. I will buy this break.

Natural Gas – It looked like they were going to rally the Gas after testing yest4erday's lows but the rally fell apart and we closed right down on the lows of today and yesterday. Look for another press lower. As I said last night, a move under $6.50 is the target and $6.14 is the 30% probability target. I will start owning it under $6.50 in April or $6.75 in the July.

Cattle – READ LAST NIGHT...I can't do any better than that and yes I came in selling today. The market finished down 190 points and you can't say you weren't warned and had the chance. The market opened a little lower, rallied and then collapsed. We shorted the board out right as options were not that interesting. We will cover those shorts at some point but for now, I like the short side. One thing, I will not let the short position become a loser so I have stops in 20 point below where I sold them. If you sold the market with me, I'd but stops there and if you don't like that position, then put a stop over today's high by a couple of ticks.

Dow – WHOA BUDDY!!! Down 242 points in a strong sell off. Read last night as I commented on the odds are still of lower prices and today delivered. I am not buying this break yet as the correction is not over.

Cotton – I was called the other day and asked why I wouldn't trade cotton here from the long side just a little bit. I told him no way and today is exactly why. We are down 100 points and most of it came in a few minutes. Why??? I don't have a clue...well, ok maybe I DO have a clue!!!

The break today looked to be technically inspired and the outlook for lower aces in cotton are just not that bright. Demand is horrible and while lower supply might be in the cards for 2007 (in fact I would almost guarantee it) the facts remain, low demand means no real surprises. I can tell you I am not trading this one; however, on this break, I may have to change that comment as on a long term basis, this one is a sleeper.

Crude Oil – 58 as support gave way today as April traded to 57.75 before closing just over 58 cents. There are a lot of bearish indicators out here but the fact remains, one problem and we will scream 5 dollars higher so fast it will make you head spin. No reason to own it now so we will let it trade itself out down here.

Monday March 12th -

Corn – Boy this is starting to look REAL bad. The technical picture is worsening tonight and it looks like a bigger break is coming. We are 50% sold in old and 20% in new (if able) but don't worry about the upcoming break. It is a buying opportunity but we need to get on the other side of March 30th. For now, we see more downside as the huge long position lightens up going into the numbers. We are short some more calls tonight selling the May $4.20 and $4.30 calls. It is a little risky but we like the short side of the market near term and I don't really want to own puts. There is a chance that this break is another 20 to 30 cents but I think the odds favor more of another 15 to 20 lower. Then we are going to start laying into the market on the buy side looking for some major action after the May options expire.

Wheat – Look for more following then leading as wheat watches the corn prices more then anything...at least for now.

Beans – I have already said it but I will say it again, this market may go a lot higher over the next few weeks but I doubt it. The top is in and rallies need to be sold. We sold the market at $8.40 in the November and right now I am kicking myself for not selling more; however, the reason I only sold that amount is the long term weather forecasts which favor more weather scares. A break to $7.60 in November is possible before the weather scares start so we remain negative short term wanting to own it lower.

Rice – More talk of lower acres but good grief, it was all talk today in the rice pit as there was no volume to speak of. September never even traded. We remain long at 50% for hedgers on buybacks and 20% long in the spec account.

Natural Gas – Still going our way with the market down 17 cents today and under $7.00 just as we forecast; however, we are in that area where we start looking to own the market as there is a lot of things that can go wrong with pressing the bear side of the market. It is too early to add a weather premium and there is a lot of supply with a warming forecast; even so, this is no time to fall in love with a bear market either. The current chart forecast is now $6.14 and that sounds like a nice area to start selling some puts out of the money.

Cattle – I didn't like today's action and tomorrow, I may sell some call options early. Here is the deal...PB is at 83% and we are in an expansion market. The close today was lower then the market had traded at any time after the first hour which make the market on the day look like this on the 30 minute chart "^". Logic says the market ran early, couldn't hold and sold off. Tomorrow, we need to see the market march right back up. If it doesn't, the buyers are going to take profits and it will be herd mentality to the door. Tomorrow is a good day to do some close watching of cattle for a sales opportunity.

Dow – The proof of a top continues. Up 40 points and over 12,300. Can it continue??? I still think the odds are 60-40 that we have an intermediate top and further correction is likely; however, I am not trading it and if I were, I would be long the Dow Mini with a close following stop.

Cotton – We are all over a buy signal and a break out but it won't take off. I can see it higher toward 58 before the planting report but again, I am not going to trade it.

Crude Oil – Another hard day down as we prepare for reports this week. 58 is support and we could sell off again to test that level. We are moving our concentration to the June contract which has support at 59.90. A bounce could happen here in the next couple of days but the market looks to be building a base right now.

Saturday March 10th -

Corn – As expected the report yesterday was a non-event. More concern that acres are growing in corn and lower in beans has the corn/bean spread still widening. The markets may die here into report but there is the chance that the break in corn is more than most people expect. We will buy the break.

Wheat – Nothing report so our comments are the same as last night… “Wheat is following the corn and beans around. They will dictate prices here unless weather comes in as a factor.”

Beans – We look for a buy the rumor sell the fact type of trading result for the upcoming acres report but I will say, I plan on going through the report slick (no positions). There is no technical change here either as it looks like a top is in place. It could be an intermediate top but time will tell.

Rice – A bounce back today with a massive key reversal up. It appears that the danger of a catastrophic event on the GMO issue has passed so now we will wait to hear more on acres. The technical picture looks better with the pattern of today but even so, I want to see some more follow through to the upside. If we close lower Monday, the market may start to look weak technically.

Natural Gas – …is still going our way. A move under $7.00 in April remains likely and on this break we want to own it. Get ready.

Cattle – Still holding as the market buys placements and an increase in beef supplies. This should translate into good feeder and calve prices so we remain long the cash and look for a trade to hedge some of these gains.

Dow – This week looks like a rally in an attempt to “prove the top”. That means to prove it is or isn’t a top. I can see it either way making an argument for a bullish short term situation or another break to finish the correction. I still see a recession led by the real estate market but it doesn’t really have to happen until after the summer buying months in those areas currently experiencing the problems.

Cotton – Closing unchanged but up off of the lows so that is a good thing. I still like the long side here but am not trading it.

Crude Oil – A big down day in heating oil futures sent the crude lower. We also expect a larger import number this next week as a backlog of deliveries gets resolved. The crude is still technically in a long position but that may change.

Thursday March 8th -

Corn – You can really see the battle in here now as rallies are met with selling but sell offs cannot gain much traction. The fact we closed lower today by a couple of cents in the old crop indicates concern about Demand issues the next three months. Sales were good this morning so we still see demand as strong and no sign of rationing out due to price. Tomorrow’s report will probably be a nothing report.

Wheat – Following the corn and beans around. They will dictate prices here unless weather comes in as a factor.

Beans – More and more talk about losing acres to corn. We don’t agree to the extent that it is being referred to and we will be short beans in some option strategy for the planting report. I don’t think the market can move a whole lot from this level until after the end of the month. Tomorrow’s report is expected to show a cut in carryover. So was last month’s…

Rice – Market down again as longs leave the market, waiting for news to push the market one way or the other. Long term we still like it but the short term unknowns is what we have to deal with the next few weeks. We have sold some futures in the Spec account to get back to 20% long there and take some profits off the table. If you sold rice and are using futures as storage, we don’t want to get in and out because then the account looks like speculating and not hedging. In that case, we would hold where you are for now and give the market a chance. Your role is to make money over the longer term and weather the dips. You may have one near term to weather.

Natural Gas – Going our way so let’s ride it down and pray we get a good chance to own it substantially lower.

Cattle – News that Korea is going to re-enter the market had us up 290 points (300 is limit) at one time. As you can imagine, my system is saying “sell it” if you are long futures as we have a very strong day and we should take some profits off the table here. For cash sellers, we are not hedging yet but we may do some trading here very soon.

Dow – Big follow through as the cash rolls in to buy “cheap” stocks. We will go with them for now but we think this market is due for some futures selling to prove the market is good from this level. Read yesterday. A break down through yesterday’s low is a sell signal right now.

Cotton – Not much follow through today in fact not much of anything. Cotton export sales are dismal and there is little hope for a big change in the S&D report tomorrow. We are accepting value here but on a rally off of the lows...that means very little.

Crude Oil – ADDING THIS TO THE MIX TONIGHT – We are trading crude here and since crude and diesel run fairly close together, you can get our ideas on fuel prices.

The technical picture is defined by sharp range bound moves. Today we went back and forth between 61.40 and 61.60 for what seemed like the whole day…well a couple of hours this afternoon. A close back over 61.82 will setup a move toward resistance (the market is at 61.60 as I write this.)

I see the current fundamentals as bullish but we still are dealing with some bearish technicals and fundamentals for that matter. I just think the bearish side of the market is more old news then new trading information. Overhead resistance is at $62.50 which is close to today’s high. I think refinery capacity is too slow in coming back online for summer months and there will be an increase in demand. The volatility in crude will continue near term and maybe even give us a chance at buying it in under $60.00; however, any major shock to the system will be a bullish one.

Wednesday March 7th -

Corn – Market moved higher from the early opening erasing the losses of yesterday but again, the market ran out of buying and sold off. It did stabilize as it headed into the close and finished up in the middle of the day’s range. It still acts like a top and it will take several days for this to settle down. I don’t see more then 20 to 30 cents down and with more estimates coming on plantings increasing by less than 10 million acres, I think that is a positive fundamental. Still, the technical picture indicates the market needs to rest and the upside near term will be a battle.

Wheat – We finished just a little higher today. Nothing to add to our comments as the market has retreated into a support zone for the near term watching corn. A push lower is possible but weather will start being a factor.

Beans – A nice move higher today as the market looks to have run out of sellers…at least or today. A push higher may bring out more selling and traders may take a break in front of the USDA S&D report this Friday.

Rice – Lower today but nothing to get excited about. The market looks to be waiting on planting information especially around the CL131 issue. Technically, the market looks like a correction in the new crop is probable. Still, this is not normal times and technicals don’t know anything about CL131. The major play today was options with commercials selling puts and funds on the buy side. We will watch it little longer.

Natural Gas – This was the only contract in the complex that traded lower for the day. We are keeping our fingers crossed that the selling in here is strong enough to take us below $7.00. Time is running out for the bears for a major push lower.

Cattle – Another strong day in cattle. This market is now over bought but there is no sign of a correction. PB is at 71% so there is still room for more to go.

Dow – We are a little higher as I write this. Is the low in??? Not sure but yesterday was certainly powerful. If the market takes out yesterday’s low, there is trouble in paradise.

Cotton - Higher today as we look for the top of this rally. Once we hit, we could see some selling pressure test support. Read last night’s comments…nothing new.

Tuesday March 6th - FOR SOME REASON THE UPDATE DIDN'T WORK LAST NIGHT...I APOLOGIZE

Corn - Read last night...The rally from yesterday didn't hold but the selling today was not that powerful. We still could rally back a bit more but the market has every look of a top. A hard sell off is also possible but it looks like the market will start to settle in and prepare for the plantings report.

Cash Comment... The basis for new crop is about 15 to 25 cents under the normal level for this time of year. New crop sales will either need to be done giving away the basis or you will need to use the futures. Look for the basis to change later as we move into the new year because there may be a shortage of storage at harvest, but after harvest, it should be a market of demand and that will bring the basis back to normal levels.

Wheat – Down again today with no real news to help the bulls. Looks like a top for now here also but its not over for wheat just yet.

Beans – Nothing here today either. Market looks weak and should test lows again. Cash basis levels are OK for cash sales if you are making new crop decisions right here.

Rice – Market finished higher even with heavy selling today as it was met with steady buying and the old and new crop spreads keep everyone busy. I talked to a floor source who says the acres appear to be down 8 to 10% in the long grain. There was no new news today on the CL131 issue but it appears Clearfield is not going to be planted much if at all. What a mess. I don't know if it's bullish or bearish...I lean to bullish but then again, I don't know what the actual event is that we are dealing with in the CL131.

Natural Gas - Higher again today with very little volatility. I am looking for a reversal but we are running into that time of year when the market jumps, not sells off. We will buy the next dip...let's hope there is one.

Cattle – Nothing changing for us. Market a bit higher with good demand and cash cattle levels in doubt over the the next 6 months.

Dow - As I write this, the market is very strong with a gain over 150 points. Is this the low...could be but I'm waiting to know for sure.

Cotton - Buying signals abound in cotton but that only means the lows are in. We will look for resistance to form at some point and a sideways move is most likely from there; however, a "V" bottom is not out of the question. The acres report may spark some interest but then again, that is supply and demand is sick. I would want to be long on a break IF I WAS TRADING IT WHICH I AM NOT!!!

Monday March 5th -

Corn - Big hook reversal up today as the market put in a trend day higher. It started lower and just kept rallying all the way into the close. This sets up a test of the top formation and there is big resistance at $4.35 to $4.40 on the May. We want to make sure everyone is 50% sold in old crop now. If you are not there, use this rally to get there.

Wheat – Rally happening here too as wheat appeared to actually start the bounce in corn. This bounce could hold on for another day or two.

Beans – Finished down 3 and just couldn't get up on the day. We want to sell this bounce and hope we have a couple of days to get to it.

Rice – News about CL131 seed seems to be the main focus of the market right now. More talk of lower acres while some other surveys are saying acres will be higher. The market action is good and while I want to take some profits, I like the market longer term. A cautious approach in front of the acres report is advisable. Our old crop/new crop spread is now out to 88 cents. Remember, we have targeted 90 cents and that should happen soon. Also look for the May/Sept spread to trade at 60 or better.

Natural Gas - Its cols across part of the country and no one wants to sell futures just yet. I look for a move under $7.00 in April but I am not sure we are going a lot lower after that.

Cattle – Not much of a day at the close but we were way off of the highs. The market action is again normal. I still see little risk right here and now but with the acres report coming, we could see more of a defensive position by traders as we go into the end of the month.

Dow - WOW!!! All over the place and finishing lower after rallying more then 150 points. Don't see a low in the market yet. We will let the market tell us when its over.

Cotton - Today's close is back under the 21 day moving average that many traders like to follow. We may again test the lows. 54 cents is major resistance now and a close over that is needed to setup a higher move and bring more buying. I am still not trading it.

Saturday March 3rd -

Corn - Not much to change as the technical action appears to be a topping type of action. Down side potential is mixed. Regarding the gap in December (question asked by member), the market could fall into the gap to test it. The technicians will be using the gap as a target and a major support zone but the market does not have to fall that far. If we start to hear that the acres of corn are up 15 million then we could easily see the Dec back off that far. My opinion is that the market has topped for now and until the acres are better known. We remain short calls and will sell puts. If you are not there, we would get to 50% sold on old crop ASAP.

Wheat – We need the corn to keep a rally going here. The weather pattern is not affecting yields yet so there is a few weeks here where the market will hold pretty close to corn and right now, that means a correction; however, we could see a departure at some point from corn in this market and when we do it will be a significant development.

Beans – No changes. Beans have topped until the weather market hit; however, rallies should be sold and we will use a bounce to move on to 50% sold.

Rice – The market did a small reversal but I'm not sure I can believe it yet. We may need a correction here but again, the acres for 2007 are still in question and we continue to hear that Arkansas is now going to be down. How much?? Who knows right now...I don't think anyone has a good grasp on this as the farmers there can still go to beans or back to rice. PB tonight is at 81%. (Sorry the link has been bad but click on the blue PB for an explanation of the indicator.)

Natural Gas - We are holding fir here with another cold spell but the draw down is not enough to change the total carry over. Even so, I am moderating my bearish stance here and believe another break under $7.00 need to be bought.

Cattle – Strong day up with corn falling. That is how it is suppose to be. Maybe the inverse action is ending which means we are at value with the cattle prices. We still see little risk here.

Dow - We have a short term top here and now we wait for signs of a low. For now we are out looking to own it later....much later.

Cotton - Another nothing day...now why did I want to start writing comments on cotton??? Because it is a sleeper and when it wakes up, we want to be there in full force. For now...what can I say but, "sleep on oh gentle giant."

Friday March 2nd -

General Comment - On Friday's, I don't like to come out too fast with comments so come back tomorrow as I have some time to look at a lot of things. For instance, the change in the COT report and a change in open interest since that report was compiled, takes me some time to analyze. Also, its time to look at weekly and monthly charts so I can see how some technical traders will be looking at the market for next week. So with that said, I'll come back and give you more detail later tonight or tomorrow. I will also answer a couple of questions I have received. In general though, the market gave no surprises today and our positions put on this week have worked. The questions are for next week. I'll answer them in the next update.

Thursday March 1st -

Corn - Please read our comments again from last night and the night before...what a market. Down 19 cents at one time we finished down 8 and no I don't think it's over. Volatility will continue and we could easily rally big or fall off again as the market looks for positions. I have already given recommendations so I won't say anything else as you should be 50% sold unless you have only made one sale and then you would be 33% sold. I remain short the calls in corn and will stay that way for now.

Wheat – Downside action continued today...we sold it right and will now wait for the market to tell us what to do.

Beans – Huge day down as everyone ran for cover in the beans. Market fell over 25 cents and while another bounce to check selling is likely, the market has probably topped for the time being and possibly until the weather market of 2007.

Rice – We have rallied back to contract highs in new crop rice as the market is finally concerned about acres for 2007. Obviously, none of the rice commercials in Arkansas are members of this service and if they were, I'd have the great pleasure of KICKING THEM OUT!!! OK...just kidding!!!

We will watch the market as it tests the highs and start watching for sell signals. By the way...PB tonight is at 80% which indicates a correction is probable in the next two weeks.

Natural Gas - Here is what I wrote last night...."We are looking for $7.10 near term in the April." Today's low in April was...$7.10.

OK...enough gloating because I sure have been wrong enough as well. It is just nice to be right every once in a while. too. I doubt the move down is over but the market has some other things going on we need to watch. The US dollar may fuel the oil prices higher and natural gas may not be able to break until the dollar finds support. I still see April under $7.00 so if I get a good signal, I will be selling the April calls and very soon.

Cattle – Down hard with corn...the inverted relationship between corn and cattle continue. Look for more pressure here near term but it is a buy in the deferred contracts longer term.

Dow - Down over 200 points early setup a profit taking rally with new buyers from sidelines, or should I say suckers from the sidelines, throwing there money at perceived bargains. For now, I am out looking for a reason to own and yes, the smart money bought today. But they are smart only if the market stays where it is or higher...otherwise, they will be heading to exits and then we will be saying, the smart money is selling. Go figure.

Cotton - A 30 point range in July...ho hum!!! No real comments as sales were in line and every other market had action but this one. It's like cotton in on the outside looking in but that won't be the case forever.