Monday March 31st ^-

General Comment -   The NASS report today was bullish corn and bearish everything else.  On the day, the bears won but for how long.  Our stance is a break in corn and beans should be bough but rallies in wheat should be sold.  Rice...well that is on its own right here and we are not that interested in it right here.  There is a lot of risk in both directions...read below.

Corn – 86 million acres is not near enough corn acres given the current demand.  Some of the feeding can switch to bean meal but not that much.  We would buy a break here as today's high may be resistance for now but it is more of a target in our opinion.  Lets see how low it can go.  Today's low at $5.55 may be tested again overnight or tomorrow.  If it holds, we should rally into the end of this week.  If it doesn't hold, we could test $5.40 near term.

Technically the market looks a little bearish after a break into all time highs and a sharp sell off.  Even so, that might be expected and based on the main trend system, this market has a lot of room to trend in either direction but odd favor higher longer term.       

Wheat – Limit down on a bearish report but come on...it wasn't that bearish.  We just think this market is headed lower due to harvest selling dead ahead.  Acres were up a little and if there is any hick up anywhere in the world,, things are going to get exciting real fast.  For now, we remain 50% sold and looking OK with that decision. 

Beans – The trade said 71 I thought 73 and the market came in at 74 million acres.  Beans collapsed quickly to limit down and locked there for the day.  I expect them 60 lower in the night session at the start.  Weather will be a big factor here but near term we could run $2.00 lower so don't be too aggressive on the buy side.  When it turns, we will want to own it but not right here and not right now. 

Rice – July hit limit up early as the market shook off news that long grain acres were actually higher by 7,000 over 2007's planting.  May almost hit limit but turned soft and finished without the buying we have seen lately.  Will there be more selling tonight and tomorrow???  If there is we could see a nice correction here. 

Our concern is why the market is higher.  It is called hording.  That means supply is being withheld not that it doesn't exist.   Think about it.  If it is there and just being held back then we have pent-up supply that when it shakes loose could bring in heavy selling.  You would think we would have a notice of such an occurrence but history says that Joe Farmer is the last one to know what is happening.  I can see this hording stay with us a little longer or end tonight.  That makes this a tough one to trade and why I am basically out looking for a place to hedge my crop...if I can find a way to do it.   

Cotton-  Down 180.  I thought the report was a little friendly but I guess we could plant nothing because no one wants this one at all.  That means we are approaching a time when everyone wants it.  It is still the sleeper in my book but it is also...still sleeping.  

Natural Gas – Up 30 on weather.  We need a break and are ready to buy it.  With crude down hard today I think once the weather turns a bit, we could see a nice break here but man we have to own that break. 

Gold -  Down 14 in the May today.   This break is good and we want to own it as it breaks...we are long 20 to 25% of our base position in GLD and will hold there for now. 

Dow -Up 46 and as I said last week.  I want to own it lower.     

Cattle – April has hit our 88 target and is still weak after trading under $87 today; however, the close was 100 off the lows.  Lets see if this indicates more of a rally.  Looking at the future of corn feed prices and a bearish hog report from last week, nothing is helping support cattle here. 

Friday March 28th ^-

Corn – Up 5 after being down again all day until the last 30 min.  The report Monday will help set direction near term and if it is really bullish, longer term as well.  This is a big report. 

Wheat – Down 21 but 24 off the low.  Looking for a higher number Monday as well. 

Beans – Down 60 in old crop and 40 in new crop.  No reason to say anything else except the average trade guess is 71 and I expect it closer to 73. 

Rice – Up the limit a few times today and closing near those levels.  Look for the market to weigh acres for about 10 minutes and then its back to world supplies.  Are they there or aren't they???  I'm too risk adverse to bet one way or the other I just know from experience and may I add painful experience, that when it ends...IT ENDS!!! 

My job is to warn you of risk and to then evaluate how to lay it off.  Rice is hard because of the low volume especially at certain strike prices with options.  I don't see any reason to sell new crop going into this report and and I don't see any good options yet either so for now, we will just let her rip and hope we can sell it a lot higher.  We may start looking at some September Puts but boy are they pricey.  For now, we will look at the numbers first.  

Cotton-  Down 94 in July as I type this.  The market went under $75.00 but so far has not closed there.  Give it some room but her again, I see no reason to trade it.  If you are growing cotton, no sales are recommended.  

Natural Gas – Up again and we want to own a break here as well.  The massive break two weeks ago is still in control but the rally has not run its coarse.  I think we will see another dip here and that is the one to own...maybe I should say I am praying for another dip here. 

Gold -  Down 17 today.   We are long 20 to 25% of our base position in GLD and will hold there for now. 

Dow - Down 40 as it still is trading.  I still see it back under 12,000 before we need to even think about owning it.   

Cattle – Down 32 and it has hit our 88.00 target just as we suggested it could last night.  That doesn't mean it can't go lower.  We will watch it from here and look for a chance to own it.   

Wednesday March 26th ^-   Please note tomorrow's Update will be late

Corn – We took off early today making highs at up 16 right after the open but then we found some aggressive selling and buyers dried up sending the market lower.  In the end we finished 7 higher as the market consolidated the resent gains.  Weather is becoming a major concern for some traders and farmers alike in the Mid-West.  We could test the contract highs on this concern as this crop needs to be perfect.  Look for more back and forth near term but a major break does not look to be in the cards. 

Wheat – Down 36 in Chicago and Down 32 in Kansas City Wheat.  We are holding at 50% and still feel like there is more upside longer term.  Near term we could see more down side action for sure but this market is going to have one eye on the other grains.   

Beans – Up 45 after trying to consolidate at lower levels.  The chart still looks toppy and it has to go a long way to make new highs; however, near term we could muster higher prices for sure.  Next Monday's report may put a dagger in the hearts of some bulls.  Time will tell. 

Rice – Up 18 as the market consolidates some of the big gains.  The market got to the recent highs and found a lack of buying to push it through those levels just as we expected; however, the next trip to those levels will probably not stop the rice.  I think we will make new highs but then what.  That is what is really going to be interesting. 

Cotton- Down just over 60 today as the market consolidates.  It could do this for a while.  I am not interested in trading cotton right now but I like it longer term. 

Natural Gas – Up 17 and approaching major resistance.  I want to own a break here and am still thinking we could get one; however, if we start to approach new highs, I am getting on board because I can see this one SHARPLY higher longer term. 

Gold -  Up a little today.  We are 20% long gold here as a hedge against the dollar.  This is a very prudent hedge because it works to counter the higher oil prices as well as anything we buy affected by the lower dollar.  We use the ETF GLD for this purpose and not gold futures as there is just too much leverage there.     

Dow - Down 110 on more bad news and fears of more bad news coming.  Look for the lows to be tested. 

Cattle – Down 100 and still holding above support.  As I said last night, I can see it test 88 in the next couple of weeks. 

Tuesday March 25th ^-  

Corn – Limit up as weather concerns start to surface.  Forecasts for more heavy rain fall in the Midwest has talk of delays in getting planted.  That is bullish corn and bearish beans.  We finished the day limit up but there were not many contracts bid and as I type this the market has been down 4 cents in the overnight trade.  Currently we are even.  We could correct back into a buying zone the next two days but it will be hard pressed to taker corn much lower with this weather pattern.  It hard to believe it but we are now entering the weather market of 2008. 

Technically the chart still looks like a top and needs to go into new highs to turn many technical traders onto the bull side.  I see the market range bound but weather markets this early can bring significant rallies into play.  I am not willing to add to any sales in corn until we know acres and a little more about planting weather.    

Wheat – Well we were darn lucky today as we moved to 50% sold.  We hit the rally and sold wheat basis Kansas City at $11.40.  That gave us a cash price of just over $12.10.  We are willing to gamble now with half of it sold on wet weather and other market concerns.  We know know we will be right on half and wrong on half...its just the question which half. 

Beans – Limit up again as beans look to retract more of their break the last three weeks.  Old crop has a long way to go as the close today is still almost $2.80 under the high.  As I said last week, it will take a major weather scare to revisit those highs and probably $6.50 corn as well. 

Rice – Another limit up move but the market is not limit up in the overnight trade so we may see some profit taking.  A lot of bullish news so here's the thing, a break here is going to probably run out of sellers around 50 to 75 cent lower than today's close and maybe sooner then that.  I would expect one more surge and maybe new highs as the market then settles in to look at planted acres.  For now, we would buy a dip but once we make new highs, you got to prepare for a major correction.

Cotton- Up 155.  Lets see what it does after this nice bounce. 

Natural Gas – Up 7 and not much to talk about.  I want to own a break and am hoping I get a good one to latch on to. 

Gold -  Higher today as the market consolidates.  I like it higher longer term but we could see one more push down based on technical's.  Even so, if you are trying to own gold, owning 25% of your base position right here is prudent.   

Dow - Down 16...I'm speechless....

Cattle – Up 67.  After the bearish response to the bullish report, cattle has righted the ship fairly fast.  I don't see a lot of risk.  We could still dip to 88 and I would be a buyer there. 

Monday March 24th ^- Adding to sales in Wheat 

Corn – As expected the market bounced today but it closed near the highs which indicates to me that we can go a little higher testing resistance at $5.27 to $5.34 and then up to $5.50.  I am not that bearish on corn and would love to see a nice break to own.  Longer term we think weather and lower acres is supportive so be ready to buy corn on dips.  Acres are expected around 88 million on Next Monday's report and if it comes in lower than that, we could see a good bounce in an attempt to buy more acres in the Mid-West at the last minute.  

Wheat – Up sharply today but the market sold off almost 40 cents from its high.  This looks like the end for wheat as we head into the harvest time period.  We could still rock around in a $1.00 range but it may be time to get to 50% sold if you are not there.  How??  Now that is the question.  First, look at the May Puts.  The at the money 10.20 Put is trading for 71 cents.  That is over $3500 for 5,000 bushels.  Expensive aren't they.  If you can not sell cash because of a horrible basis, then the best trade is to sell the July 12.00 call at 58 cents and buy the July 10.00 Put for 98 cents or 40 cent spread.  This locks you in no worse than $9.60 for a cost of $2200 per contract.  It caps you at no better than $11.60.  We would do that or sell cash somewhere in here on an up day if the basis is OK and get to 50% sold now.  We realize this market is moving a lot and it is worse than shooting at clay pigeons in a 100 mile an hour wind storm from the deck of a row boat at sea.  Never the less, the market is showing again signs of seasonal tendency and we are headed into a major harvest period where the market will come up for breath.  We are holding 50% and that is risky enough.  

Beans – Limit up as the selling abates.  News that soybean seed is limited may have the beans on a bit of a rally near term.  Palm oil is lower and that is having a major affect as well.  we are not selling it yet. 

Rice – Limit up and as I type this, it just opened and is limit bid in the night session.  We are not selling anything here as the market looks at the world supply and sees a real void.  Thailand farmers are holding rice back from market and exporters there are cancelling ships.  $600.00 a ton is the price if you can get it.  This run in rice may go into new highs as the market panics with the lack of premium sellers with any real inventory.  Panic is the end of buying but it could take us a lot higher as it occurs.  Volume is so small there is just no sellers in there.  This is not a market for the faint of heart and if you have made money trading this one, remember, they want it back!!!

Again, it is going to get very nasty at some point but the rice could possibly do what wheat did.  Make new highs and then, well, wheat collapsed and I am not sure what this one is going to do.  

Cotton- Up 243.  As I said Thursday, we may be putting in a temporary low.  Still, I am not trading it at all.  The fundamentals do no support a major rally here but then again, the last rally had little to do with fundamentals now did it?

Natural Gas – Up 33 but the chart still looks horrible.  The funds are looking to reenter but can they muster the buying power as before the bear sterns collapse.  Who knows but this one must do a lot of work to turn extremely bullish.  I want to own it on a break. 

Gold -  Down a little more today.  I like owning gold under $900 but I can wait for a reason to own it. 

Dow - Up 187 points as the market looks to say it has made a significant bottom.  Never buy the first rally so we will wait for a good dip on more bad news and look to start owning something.  If it then makes a new low, we will blow those trades out.   

Cattle – Down 22 after a bullish cattle on feed report.  Not good news.  If it stays in this price range for a days without a rally, I would look for a break and once again test the $88.00 level. 

Thursday March 20th ^-  No Market on Friday...Next Update Monday Morning

Corn – Limit down again and under support.  We may bounce back up to $5.20 level fairly soon this next week unless there is more bad news over this long three day weekend.  

Wheat – Down sharply with May off 89 cents.  I can see a bounce here next week but again, the market is being dragged around by the out side markets.  

Beans – Down the limit as the market gives up more in front of the acres report and the funds run to liquidity.  This should end this next week and a big bounce could follow. 

Rice – Up 1 but the market did some technical damage today.  Next week the market needs to hold the lows and if it doesn't we could see a hard break here.  The chart looks toppy but we could bounce $1.00 and it still look bad so this  is no time to try and take a shot at being short unless you can get out really quick. 

Cotton- Up 27 at the close in the middle of almost a 600 point range.  We may be putting in a temporary low here as the market shoes a lot of volatility.  Problem is to trade this one you must be prepared to have it move over 400 points against you.  This is too much for us to trade it. 

Natural Gas – Up 10 after the market found some support this week.  We could bounce another 60 points and it still look like a top.  This king of risk makes it impossible to trade. 

Gold -  Still heading lower as we see it but this is a dip to buy.  Get ready to own GLD and in fact, I can see you owning 10 to 20% of that ETF right here. 

Dow - Up 261 as we head into next week.  Have we made a significant low...there is certainly a chance but we will wait for a dip to buy it.  I am having problems believing the market is headed higher from here...it may just go quiet.  

Cattle – Up 100 today on the Dow rally.  No reason to own and I sure wouldn't sell it. 

Tuesday March 18th ^- 

Corn – The market rallied with the rest of the complex as the Dow turned around big time today relieving fears of a major liquidity run on commodity positions.  Also, a farm magazine survey says acres will drop 6 million in corn next year.  That would not be a good thing for market bears.  For now, it is a major tug of war with the chart not giving us much help.  Frankly, it looks like we could go higher but we need the May to stay over $5.26.  I like right where we are in selling this one and do not recommend selling anything else right now even though as I type this the market is down 10 in the overnight session.  It will remain very crazy near term.   

Wheat – Up 32 as wheat too continues to be pushed around by everything but fundamentals.  The chart still looks bearish here but the longer term trend is still pointed higher.  No additional recommendation are going to be made here either as  the market looks stuck is a huge range.   

Beans – The fundamentals on beans has not changed but the idea of over 71 million acres of beans is bearish...until we get to weather.  Near term, we could certainly go lower because the lows made this week are just that...weak!!!  Look for them to be tested. 

Rice – Limit up as news continues to flow from Asia of poor crops and huge demand.  Just remember, the main harvest has been completed and none of that rice, even is short supply, is ready to be shipped.  I think the market can stay firm for another few weeks.  Longer term, I still see it higher and am not selling any new crop. 

Cotton- Down a little but man what a chart.  I like longer term but right now, not a chance I am long.  It may certainly go higher but the risk of trading here with these current fundamentals is not worth it. 

Natural Gas – After the collapse yesterday, we bounced higher but when you look at the charts, you can see today's action was entirely in yesterday's range.  Volatility could continue here but a break has become much more likely over the next few weeks.  WE WILL BUY IT!!!. 

Gold -   A little higher but tonight it is sharply lower.  I want to own a break and I think we are going to get one but the action here is going to be wild just as in the grains. 

Dow - UP 420 POINTS!!!   Never buy the first bounce. 

Cattle – Big day up with the Dow rally.  We may bounce a little further but I can still see it testing the lows and possibly heading below 88.  We could certainly change our minds on this one if we rally sharply and then start to test lows and fail. 

Monday March 17th ^- Updated at 7:30 to look at start of overnight trade....  

Corn – The correction has begun with a strong limit down move today.  The action here was lead by funds running to get liquidity.  Here in the over night session, corn is down another 5 cents.  The low on March 10th was $5.27 and the close today was 5.39 and as I type this we are at $5.34 so we are approaching that level of support.  The outside markets are going to be the key to us getting through that level and especially how the markets trade overseas tonight.

As I type this, Crude Oil is up 72 cents, Gold is down 70 cents and the dollar is lower.  The Dow futures are up 34 and likeing what they see overseas right now.  Beans are down 42 cents with wheat up 4 and rice up 24 cents.  Look for corn to test $5.27 which would be between $5.27 and $5.30 and a close under that range sets up a move to $5.12.  Longer term, this market is a buy as weather will be key but for now, the futures needs to head toward the cash price.    

Wheat – Limit down...no surprise we have been saying the top is in the old crop and now it looks like the new crop as well.  We will sell another bounce and I expect one but with volatility it could com from a lot lower. 

Beans – Limit down with market down another 42 cents as I type this.  We are now $3.20 cents off the highs made March 3rd.  WOW!!!   You think they know acres are going to be bearish???  I may be crazy but once the report is out on the 31st and the market reacts, it may be a great buying opportunity. 

Rice – Limit down but up 24 cents tonight and at limit down there wasn't much offered there.  The support is 90 cents lower and so is the cash price...maybe $2.00 lower.  I can see a lot of movement here near term but I am not sure it will be in one direction.  We remain longer term bulls so we are not interested in hedging rice just yet. 

Cotton- Limit down...read our comments as cotton is headed for the cash price as well and could have another limit down move tomorrow. 

Natural Gas – Well the rally in gas is over and now we look for a major correction.  We need to buy this break but we should have time.  Key word is should.  Crude looks like it is topping so that is good news.  Stay in close contact with us and if you don't have the ability to trade ETF's, we recommend you opening an online securities account so you can can get some hedging protection.  

Gold -   A big spike in gold today but we didn't reverse.  It is down another $6.00 tonight and a close under $9.90 indicates a top.  We are buying Puts on the GLD ETF to short this one.  Longer term, I doubt we are done heading higher but near term, it may be hard to get over $1033 in the next several weeks.   

Dow - It may be getting close to where you can own the stock market with little risk but I don't think it is just yet.  We need a sharply higher close tomorrow and a strong finish to the this weeks action.

Cattle – As I wrote last night..."Higher but still in a bearish setup.  I think we can hit 88.00 or lower still in April Cattle."  Today we were down 130 and I still see it at 88.00 and soon. 

Friday March 14th   

Corn – Once again the market held in the range it has traded through for the last 10 days.  Read last nights comments.   In general, the 10 cent break today after almost hitting limit down, could indicate a correction coming here; however, there is still no sign that this is the case.  Next week we will see if the market starts to move away from this mid $5.60 range. 

Wheat – Sharp break with wheat down 46 in July.  We could hit some sell signals if the market continues lower but we must give it a wide birth.  The top is in here in May but the July actually mad a new high last week.  We will see if the market can rally to let us get some more selling done.  

Beans – Limit down with beans leading everything lower.  Acres may be too high here as the market now looks like corn acres are going to be cut a bunch and bean acres sharply higher.  Look for volatility to continue. 

Rice – Down sharply with limit down in old crop.  We could rally from this level or break another $2.00 but the volatility will continue.  I see no reason to get in any position right here.   

Cotton- Still headed lower.  Fundamentals are not supportive here yet.  Read my comments from this week as nothing has changed in my mind. 

Natural Gas – Big hit today.  We may have Finnally hit a price that can act as resistance; however, I am not that bearish.  Lets see what happens with crude this next week.   

Gold -   We hit $1,000 but you should read our comments from last night.  This one is going higher.

Dow - The market really went back and forth today but honestly, its not over for this one yet.  We need a major hard day down with heavy volume to shake this one out and get the market to capitulate.  DO NOT OWN THIS ONE NOW!!!

Cattle – Higher but still in a bearish setup.  I think we can hit 88.00 or lower still in April Cattle.

Thursday March 13th   

Corn – Once again the market put in over a 10 cent range and challenged its high only to pull back into a price range that is really holding the market.  If you look at a chart of the electronic May contract, you will see that the market has traded everyday for the last 9 days, the prices of $5.63 to $5.66 1/2.  To make sure you understand, let me put it in other words...everyday since March 3rd, May Corn has had the prices of $5.63 to $5.66 1/2 between the high and low of the every day.  For instance, today the low was $5.63 and the high $5.79.   On March 7th the high was $5.66 1/2 with a low of $5.47.  Going through all 9 days we see there has been a trade at every price between the range of $5.63 to $5.66 1/2.  It is this price range that is holding the market.  We see this as an important range area where the market is finding equilibrium. 

With all that said, we are looking for the market to pull away from this area and very soon...but which direction?  The first day where there is no trading between $5.63 and $5.66 1/2 may tall us exactly that.  As I type this the market low in the corn is $5.68 and if that holds through tomorrow, then we will have the first day in ten where the market didn't trade at $5.66 1/2.  Technically, that is what the market is telling us but it can still change in a moments notice so keep a close watch.     

Wheat – A sharp break off the highs but still no sign of a top here.  One can argue we have made a bull trap top but there needs to be confirmation.  A bull trap is where the market makes new highs and then immediately sells off trapping those who will buy a market as it makes a new high.  We don't see a top here yet and will give it plenty of room. 

Beans – Higher but well off the highs.  No sign of a top at all and it may be that the Secretary of the Treasury making comments regarding commodities was the culprit here triggering the selling.  Sorry, but Sec. Polson has little power to really affect the market unless he pulls the plug on currency selling which he won't do.  I still see it higher but am watching it for a break.   

Rice – Limit Bid all day but it sold off 62 cents in the last 30 minutes and finished with a hook reversal down and off 12 for the day.  This could get real nasty real fast but again, we need confirmation that this is the top.  Tomorrow will be important in that regard and I am not holding my breath that we will be lower. 

Cotton- Another down day here as we lose 120 points.  What the heck is going on here???  Hard to know for sure but the rally last week was almost panic buying on no real fundamental reason.  We have been bullish long term but this bounce really had no justification.  I do know of some cotton funds and pools that got their head handed to them for margin calls and some got out of positions because they couldn't afford their hedges.  It is crazy but then again, this is the cotton market and I have never been a fan of it.  I thought maybe things had changed but this last three weeks has me once again saying not to trade cotton futures unless you can stand the heat.  

Natural Gas – Another strong day as there is no sign of stopping this run.  The market is changing plateaus and at some point will head lower to look at support but when and where that happens is anyone's guess.  Main thing is not to be short here. 

Gold -   It has been a while since I commented on gold but today's crossing of $1,000 per oz means its time.  We first talked about gold over $1,000 before January.  Look back at our comments and you'll see that is true.  With it crossing $1,000 there are some saying it will stop here as if the market really cares about price.  NO MARKET CARES ABOUT THE PRICE...Price is only an indication of balancing supply and demand and $1,000 per oz is not a magic place of pausing anymore than $100 crude was.  Yes we can see a pull back but I am buying gold using the GLD Exchange Traded Fund and I do not see it pausing here for very long...I am buying it and will buy more on any break.   

Dow - Reversal higher on news from the S&P that the Sub-prime issue is about over.  Excuse me while I laugh at them out loud...good grief!!!  Yes the banks who have lost 80% of their value are about finished losing value...well DAH!!!  GOOD GRIEF!!!   I only have an MBA from Texas A&M and these guys are Harvard MBA's but GOOD GRIEF!!!   The dollar is key here and there is no sign of a bottom there at all with new lows again today. 

I think this market needs a washout and until that happens I am not buying it.  Look for the market to continue in volatile conditions but the dollar, crude oil and gold need to reverse course. 

Cattle – Still lower and looking for that major test of $88.00...this is the sleeper I have no doubt so get ready to load the ship.

Wednesday March 12th   

General Comment – Switched computers last night so this update is late.  Rice finished limit up and as I type this early in the morning on Thursday, the market is limit up again.  This squeeze may last awhile but when it ends, it will end!!!  Look for the new crop months to fail first and then pull back on the squeeze. 

Corn finished lower but there is still no sign of top and it looks to me corn will still go higher.  New highs in wheat show how crazy things are.  Look for the volatility to continue near term and we are not changing anything in out right selling recommendations.  It is safe to sell here because it is profitable but it is not safe to sell anything in a speculative situation.  

Tuesday March 11th   

Corn – New highs but the market stalled a little.  This is normal and may proceed another push higher.  We will be watching the outside markets especially in light of the Fed action today.  For now, we are still watching and not increasing sales here.   

Wheat – Sharply higher today but as I type this wheat is down in the overnight trade along with corn.  $12.00 in July is possible with the report today but we are running out of time as harvest is approaching and we need to remember, this is the futures market.  Still, no sign of a top and we will give a little more room before selling another 1/3rd of the crop.

Beans – We didn't hold gains here either and the report was most bullish for beans.  Lets see where we are led tomorrow.  What a market. 

Rice – WOW!!!   Squeeze city as old crop rice explodes limit up and as I type this on Tuesday night...WE ARE LIMIT BID AGAIN... $19.05 in May rice and $19.33 in July.  This will not end well but the questions is, when will it end???  We are not selling anything here but will want something sold if we can get the market to give us a sell signal we can trust...I think it is coming but we could be $1.50 higher before it happens.   

Cotton- LIMIT BID...Last night we said "the bounce we saw in the grains will probably happen in the cotton when we get there."  We are there... Another market that is hard to call.   

Natural Gas – Down a little but there is no reason to be selling here yet.  Crude is up in the overnight trade but just barely and the dollar is down a little as the bulls here are not going to give up easily.  Wednesday's trade will be important for the dollar and for securities.     

Dow - Up 416.  Last night we said...look for the Fed to step in and if they do, the rally that follows will be short lived.  I see the market higher tomorrow with lower volume and then a little higher on even lower volume if I am going to be right that this rally will be short lived.  After reading what the Fed did today...I like it a lot.  This may be a bigger rally then I thought.  I bought the Dow this morning and am adding to positions here in the night trade and will risk it to yesterday's low. 

Cattle – Watching everything else go zipping past...no reason to trade. 

Monday March 10th   

The volatility in these markets continues as the rally today was quite impressive.  Tomorrow's report will influence the markets near term but unless there is a real surprise tomorrow, all eyes will shift to acres again right after the report.  The main thing is can we stay in these levels for more than 3 days...if so, the action the last two days may be nothing more than a correction.  Today's action is just part of the markets crazy action that can continue for the next three to five weeks if not into the fall this year.  Be patient and let it trade without you.

Corn – After hitting limit down, the market rallied to near limit up in May.  We are still under the recent highs but this market ran our of sellers this morning and the bulls took over.  This rally is huge and technically sets up a test of the recent highs.  Longer term we are bullish but if we reverse tomorrow again, a top here will have much more significance than we wanted.  In other words, we do not want a major top here...technically that would indicate something is changing and that the participants in the market are more long for the long term than we thought.  If that starts to be the case, we will move to 50% sold but for now we like 33% sold in 2008 and 100% sold for 2007. 

Wheat – We got our wish and hit $11.20 today.  The $11.50 to $11.80 window is next and the market may need some fundamental help to hit that level.  We will see what it looks like tomorrow. 

Beans – Up 50 off the lows as beans reversed today but still are over $1.00 off their highs.  Beans will have a bunch to go to get to new highs and it will take some fundamental news to make the turn.  I remain very defensive here and want to sell the rally.

Rice – Strong reversal here as well.  Can it make new highs...you bet ya...can it fail then...dumb question...of course it can!!!   This one is going to be wild and we will look back at this time and say it was one of the craziest trading markets we have ever seen.  Remember what we said last night..."over the next 18 months, we see the downside risk as maybe $3 but more likely $2 and the upside risk is $6 to $8 higher."    

Cotton- While the grains bounced, cotton stuck to limit down (400 points) but the bounce we saw in the grains will probably happen in the cotton when we get there.  .

Natural Gas – A close over $10.00 with a strong outside day up.  The dollar is the culprit and when it comes down to it, it is the problem across the board.  No sign of a top. 

Dow - Down 153 and closing under 11,800.  Now we look for a reason to own it and when I look at things...I don't see any reason; however, look for the Fed to step in and if they do, the rally that follows will be short lived. 

Cattle – Still pushing lower and headed for 88 cents...it may go even lower if grains make new highs. 

Friday March 7th   

General Comment -  Make sure you sign up for our WEBINAR which is set for TUESDAY morning.  I originally said it was Wednesday but it is Tuesday morning.   It will  be interesting...

As we have been warning about, everything gave up today with limit down moves in corn, beans and rice.  Wheat has already topped and finished lower too but not by much.  Funds may be looking at the total economy as well near term as the stock market is reeling under concerns for a recession.  Remember, we said almost a year ago we would be in recession in 2008 and the only question is how bad it would be.  Even so, in the grains don't get married to the bear camp at this point.  Longer term the markets will stay volatile and the recent highs are not safe...its just that they may be safe for a few weeks. 

Corn – Limit down as longs exited.  I loved the comments from the pit today as traders said it was "recent longs getting out amid concerns for the economy."   That sounds like bulls who have married a long position and are looking at the current break as a short term correction.  They may be right but the technical traders will be saying something entirely different if we gap lower Monday and never look back breaking all levels of support. 

If you are willing to buy futures back, we can see getting to 50% sold here using cash or futures.  If you do not use futures, 33% sold is just fine.  Some of you are already there or higher and that too is just fine but longer term, we see the risk to a lower acreage number and then weather problems affecting the average yield for the country.  It is not over, not by a long shot.  We want to buy a break longer term but short right now is just fine.  Here is the place you sell May and buy December.            

Wheat – I am hoping...OK, I am planning on $11.20 July wheat.  Today the market tried to go lower but really had an OK day all things considered.  The top is in here and we will sell this rally and as I have said the last two nights, $11.20 and then $11.52 are good technical targets but the $11.52 may be hard to come by...heck, the $11.20 isn't no picnic.  

Beans – Limit down under heavy pressure.  By the way, the same thing said about corn today was said about beans two days ago.  We have broken now $2.30 off the March highs which is the cash market now...yes we could pause in this decline but it may be another $1.50 down before that happens.  We are not selling here because we have no beans planted and they have a long way to go.  In fact, I would like to own this one later on for the summer weather market.   

Rice – Last night I wrote this..."Tomorrow, a move under $17.70 in the May to trigger all out sell signals and the formation of a top.  A close under $18.00 tomorrow will also give us a sell signal but not that strong of one.  That could be totally different next Monday."  The close under $18.00 comment was referring to the case where we closed under $18.00 BUT NOT under $17.70...  We don't have to worry with that as we closed well under $18.00 and under $17.70 at $17.55.  If we start out sharply lower Monday this market should accelerate lower for a few days. 

We would be negligent to not point out that the fundamentals remain bullish and even cash in Texas jumped another $1.00 today.  Even so, the basis is horrible and there is easily another $1.50 down here without affecting cash.   With that said, I want to buy this break...patience is going to be a must as with all the grains as wide ranges will keep us guessing.  We are not crazy about selling new crop because over the next 18 months, we see the downside risk as maybe $3 but more likely $2 and the upside risk is $6 to $8 higher.  WHAT A MARKET!!!  

Cotton- Down hard again today as the market unwinds from its quick bull market run.  If this isn't a bull trap I've never seen one.  Longer term this one is good but near term, I wouldn't touch it. 

Natural Gas – We hit $10.00 today and still no sign of a top.  Look for a break to own it.  We are bullish but like the odds of some retreat action here.  A good lesson can be learned from this one, when "everyone " is saying the market is going to break, find out who "everyone" really is!!!

Dow - Down 147 on bad employment news.  We closed under 11,900  and as test where we thought it would go 11,800.  Still I see it under 12,000 and maybe a hard dive toward 11,800.  That is where we want to start owning the big chips. (From last nights comments)...  From here we can see support starting to build for a while but there is still more bad news to come and the final low may not come for several weeks and maybe months.   

Cattle – Up 50 but nothing really to hang our hats on.  More down side is possible but with grains under pressure, we could see some bottoming type action here. 

Thursday March 6th   

General Comment -  Another wild day but this time the beans and corn divorced themselves.  Concerns that corn acres are going to be less than 90 million was talked about today and all I can is well DAH!!!  Who doesn't know that???   All indications are the acres will come in around 88 million and I would state 87.5 as my guess at least right now.  In any case, it is still the first of March and there are 3 inches of snow on the ground in the Mid-west.  Who knows what is going to be the case on July 1st?  All of this adds to the volatility and right now is keeping corn at this level.

Corn – Unchanged today while beans fell to pieces.  Again, no sign of a top and $5.51 remains the first level of support.  $5.44 signals real trouble.  Longer term I don't see this one under $4.75 but at the same point I'm not sure we will ever test that level. 

Wheat – Up 32 in the July.  Looking at $11.20 and then $11.52 as resistance points.  I think those levels will hold because this rally is not that string in an internal aspect.  Get ready to sell more. 

Beans – Down limit in May today as the market reeled under spec liquidation.  The top looks very likely here; however, it maybe short lived.  We have already broke $1.20 off the highs and now comes the point of support where the beans will attempt to rally toward a new high.  We could break more before that happens but I still see a bounce to sell similar to what is happening in wheat. 

Rice – Today classifies as a Key Reversal down day but only in the pit trade.  We took out yesterday's high and low and closed lower.  Tomorrow, a move under $17.70 in the May to trigger all out sell signals and the formation of a top.  A close under $18.00 tomorrow will also give us a sell signal but not that strong of one.  That could be totally different next Monday. 

Cotton- Limit down locked today.  This break will setup a nice buy signal but the break could be severe...OK...it already is severe but it may get a lot worse over the next few days before once again we look at acres. 

Natural Gas – Closing in on $10.00...still no sign of a top or correction.  Longer term we want to own this but would rather own it under $9.00.  I think we have a chance at that in the next 6 to 8 weeks. 

Dow - WOW!!!  Down 214 points with the market reeling here as well.  More concerns off of the Mortgage problems added to the losses of this week in the Down today.  Citigroup is now at $21.00 INCREDIBLE.  Still I see it under 12,000 and maybe a hard dive toward 11,800.  That is where we want to start owning the big chips.   

Cattle – As I said last night we are going to test 88 and fairly soon.  Cash cattle prices are in retreat as well but this is the sleeper right now as the demand for beef will hold near current levels and cash cattle availability will decline.  That could put cattle over the $1.00 later this year.  A good buying opportunity is coming. 

Wednesday March 5th   

General Comment -  Crude oil exploded higher today and that kept the grains up more than anything.  There is talk of heavy selling on the horizon for soybean oil and that could have major affects to the corn and rice.  Even so, crude needs to break and right now there is just no sign of it.  It will take some bearish news to push speculators over the hill on this one. 

Corn – Down 11 yesterday, up 14 today and still no sign of a top or should I say confirmation of a top.  There are signs everywhere as the volatility, the trade actions itself, and many technical indicators are signally a major top warning....but still no top.  If May corn trades under $5.44, we will sell it.  Until then, I'll let it trade itself out.  As I type this, the market is already off its high by 5 1/2 cents and with an average of 14 cents on the range, who knows where it will end tomorrow.  $5.44 is out of range, this we know and it may take next weeks report to get us out of this situation. 

Wheat – Up 40 in July today and as I type this, up another 18 in the overnight trade.  A possible move to $11.52 is the current chart point I have.  That is 85 cents higher than it is tonight.  The way this thing is trading, who knows.    

Beans – Beans broke hard today and managed to lose unchanged.  We are getting topping type of volatility but again...NO TOP!!!  We will wait for selling purposes to get a confirmed top. 

Rice – Rice is also going back and forth in its current range.  We broke from sharply higher to finish unchanged on May and tonight we are up 14.  That is already 24 off its high.  Again, this is topping action but no confirmation.  We would be out or short but its time to not be long. 

Cotton- Oops...sorry about the old comments posted in cotton last night.  Cotton finished higher today continuing its push; however, it was way off its high.  After trading close to limit up again, the market dropped over 300 points to settle just 59 higher.  Watch it today as this one too has maybe come to the end of this move. 

Natural Gas – Strong day in Gas again today.  I remain bullish here but the time is coming to start putting on protection but it has not arrived yet.  Tomorrow's inventory report will be closely watched. 

Dow - Support found as expected.  Look for back and forth action but lower still looks likely unless the crude beaks soon. 

Cattle – Grinding lower and setup to test 88 in the April contract. 

Tuesday March 4th   

Corn – Down 11 today and maybe the first of several days down...or not!!!  The market was down over 19 cents at one time and came back but the rally could be from the bean/corn spread trade as soybeans finished limit down.  $5.44 is the point of selling tomorrow and that is now in range.  It is risky but letting these prices get away could be right down sickening. 

Wheat – Down 7 1/2 on a late rally.  I'm not a believer here and would sell any rally. 

Beans – Down 47 as the correction we fear may be upon us.  A possible big break in beans is coming as the beans upwind heavy spec positions.  Today at limit down is just a taste of what can happen here. 

Rice – Limit down today but not hard.  Early orders in the pit tonight do not show any heavy selling...one look at the chart should scare you to death and while longer term and I mean longer term I can see it higher, this heavy long spec position could lead to an absolute blood bath.  Consider selling calls or out right shorting rice with a stop over the high which is out of range tomorrow.  It is risky and I think the market may top hard but some guys who have been pouring money into these markets got a dose of what can happen if it takes off to the downside. 

Cotton- No comments...omitting bad post. 

Natural Gas – Basically unchanged but the chart looks like a spike.  We are taking profit on more puts that we are short. 

Dow - The Dow should find support here here for a few days but 12,000 remains the target.  Things are not getting better and we are headed into that time of year when the mortgage markets may see the second shoe drop. 

Cattle – Down another 150 with a hard breakout to the downside.  We may be going even lower now that we have a breakout.  We were hoping the sideways market would hold or even rally with a grain sell off but that wasn't the case...at least not yet.  We are not trading here but see the downside as limited near term unless there is a lot more beef than reported out there. 

Monday March 3rd   

General Comment -  I had a feeling something wasn't right with the close today so I chose to wait and see how the night trade went.  As I write this...its not going so well.  Read on!!!

Corn – Up 10 but the market stalled today and that could indicate a correction or worse.  As I type this in the night session we are down 9 cents; however, that doesn't mean anything.  Fact is we have an average range of 13 cents so we must give it about double that.  There is something wrong if we take out $5.44 which is out of range for the day so today we just get to watch.  A limit down close would be bad but again, I'm not sure this move is over.  These type of corrections have been nothing but that....corrections.  We will check how things look at 6 AM in the morning and go from there.   

Wheat – Down 30 in the night trade after being up 16 on the day which was 44 cents off its high.  Not too swift.  This baby has topped. 

Beans – We close 27 cents off the highs and up 23 for the day.  Tonight we are down 22.  That means we are right back at Friday's close.  A close on this coming Friday under this level would indicate a weekly reversal down.  Not that I think that will happen but it certainly could. 

Rice – May was up 45 today and here tonight its down 38 in the overnight session.  This market is off the charts higher and I see it correction quickly and without notice when it happens.  I am not about to short it yet but the time is coming when it will be very safe to do just that.  Lets see how it trades in the morning.

Cotton- Up 28 in the July, if the other grains falter, I see a nice correction to buy in cotton. 

Natural Gas – Basically unchanged but the chart looks like a spike.  We are taking profit on more puts that we are short. 

Cattle – Down 165 but if the grains falter, we could have a nice bounce here.