Thursday May 31st - Sorry for the very late update today

Corn – Good follow through with the trend line being busted as the market moved up against major resistance at $3.96 in the July.  This puts the market in a sideways range technically but it may not last very long.  In general, the early summer low is in place and I expect the market to move higher but tomorrow (Friday) we may consolidate or even work lower.  I say that even with the market up 3 cents in the over night trade.  Nothing would surprise me as this is a weather market.  We rolled July 390 Calls up to $4.10 today and will be looking at adjusting some Puts tomorrow but for the most part, we are long here with some covered calls in the July with just 21 days left in the options.  Read last night for more on our ideas here as nothing has changed today. 

Wheat – Up 7 but off its highs.  We may need to consolidate here as well.  We would still buy a break as this one can move higher easily given the current fundamentals and technical indications as well.   

Beans – Lower today with more spreading against corn.  Good consolidation underway here.

Rice – Nothing new today.  We are long but think it could be a while before we really start to move higher; however, I am remembering I missed the first jump in corn because the market took off early when it has similar fundamentals.  I won't miss this one.

Natural Gas – Down a fraction but tomorrow is going to be important as the market is trying to move back above the trend line it broke last week.  With the reversal up in crude, it may be hard for gas to break much and tomorrow is the start of the hurricane season.  The first one we get in the Gulf of Mexico will move gas sharply higher but only for a few days.

Crude Oil – Key reversal up today and I can tell you it was truly a technical reversal.  This market started down but rallied to up 40 or 50 when the inventory numbers came in but then the market cratered by 140 points only to turn right around and come all the way back to make new highs.  I bought the break with market down 60 cents on the day and remain long tonight.  This reversal needs follow through but things look like a short term low is in place and now we will go to test resistance.

Cattle – The market was higher today as we switch to watching August Live cattle.  We need to close over 92 tomorrow to setup a possible short term low.

Dow – Down 5 in a quiet day.  The market still looks poised to move into new highs. 

Cotton -  Up 72 and looking good...for cotton that is.  The market closed right on its 9 week moving average and the PB is up to 49%.  This now qualifies as a "V" bottom with 52.25 as our current upside target on this leg.

Wednesday May 30th -

Corn – Sharply higher with a major test of the downward trend line now underway.   The move higher was sparked by a weather forecast of dryer weather.  With that said, it is now official.  Welcome to the weather market of 2007 and please...hold on for dear life as it gets right down ridiculous. 

Let's Talk:  Some major things happened today.  First we closed over the 9 week moving average for the first time since March 20th.  Second, PB went over 50 for only the second time since early March and thirdly, we closed at the high end of the range and just 5 cents away from the current down trend.  TOMORROW IS KEY.   We need follow through buying but I am going to also say this is not like any market we have ever traded so what we really need is just another close over the 9 week moving average and if we get it, I think $4.00 in July will be tested very soon.  With that said, we sold the $3.90 Calls to protect our longs and sold $3.50 and $3.60 Puts.  A move over $4.02 in July and we lose our protection from the Calls we sold for 12 cents.   Tomorrow, if the market is higher at 10:30, we will roll those $3.90 calls up to $4.00 calls unless the market is sharply higher (Over 10 cents higher).  If that is the case, we will buy back the calls and looks to sell some more Puts such as the $3.60 or $3.70 but again, only if it is sharply higher.

I do not normally write out what I am doing like this but I want to get you to be thinking about using options in this type of a market.  Out right futures can get right down expensive so rule number one is lower the number of contracts you trade with OR apply options to your positions for coverage.  July is just 22 days from expiration so the risk here is short term.  I am not ready to say we are headed straight up but this one thing I can tell you.  If we are sharply higher tomorrow, things have changed and some major weather premium needs to be put in the market...as much as 30 to 40 cents. 

Wheat – Sharply higher here as well and a new high should be made as this market moves higher as well.  We said last week the lows were in and nothing has changed for us.  Buy breaks and sellers of cash should be going to storage. 

Beans – Some spread trading kept beans from exploding.  I am buying the market here with options.  The reason is clear.  The problem in weather is in the EASTERN corn belt and that is where the bulk of the beans are grown.  This weather scare if it catches hold (A BIG IF) will send beans $1.00 higher.   Now don't go crazy but if you are a mind to trade beans, get al little on your plate ASAP in what ever form and if the scare collapses, we will use a premium bust to buy a little more. 

Rice – Higher but still quiet.  I think the time is still right to own Sept or Nov but stay clear of July.  Breaks should be well supported.  I think we are close to the right time for leg higher in the rice. 

Natural Gas – Up 21 cents today I guess because of hotter weather in the forecasts.  I own some here and will buy more on any break.  I was hoping for $7.60 in July but I am running out of time.  

Crude Oil – Up 35 today but this market needs to test support and its only one day old which makes it very weak.  I bought some crude today but very lightly and will add more if we test support and then blow it out if the trade fails.

Cattle – Down 35 and still quiet.  No changes in our position.  If corn moves over $4.00, cattle will have to follow in the deferred contracts.

Dow – Up 111 today.  We bought more this morning when the market went up on the day after starting lower.  We stayed with the position as I expect new highs.   

Cotton -  Up 42 and looking more and more like a bottom is in place.  That doesn't mean we will not break 200 points to test support.

Tuesday May 29th -

Corn – Today was a trend-day down in a down trending market.  This is what is suppose to happen.  Markets move in their major trend in cascading moves.  The only good thing for the bulls was the consolidation over the last two hours where the market failed to move lower except for a new low at 12:45 but then the market moved off of that.  Even so, not a lot to hang your hat on if you are a bull.  The low on May 11th was $3.52 so that now becomes testable.  That was the low before the USDA lowered the carryover but if the crop keeps coming in as good as it looks right now (which it won't) the market may see a huge increase in that carryover number in the June report which is not that far away.  In general...this market is in a down trend!!!  There is no reason to trade it long until we break out of that situation.  On longs we do have as buy backs, we have sold calls and tomorrow may "roll" those calls even lower.  Today was a bad day technically and today's low needs to hold or the move lower will continue with no bounces until the weather picture actually changes...and it will but why get drug by a car in the mean time??

Wheat – Nice break today and we are in the buying mode.  We will let the market tell us it's time. 

Beans – Good solid break today but I doubt the move higher is over just yet. 

Rice – Still dead quiet.

Natural Gas – Down 7 today as the market leaks out premium with one eye on the gulf and one eye on the inventory number.  Only problem is that it gives one a head ach being so cross eyed. 

Crude Oil – Down $1.90 after being up $1.02 on last Friday.  I want to own a break here but not yet.

Cattle – Down 10 and getting a little quiet.  We may consolidate for a while longer. 

Dow – Up 14.  We are consolidating but the break looks to be without dynamic selling.  A bounce higher is still likely. 

Cotton -  Down 1.04 as we continue the volatility of a bottom.  Not that it is going a lot higher anytime soon but odds are favoring a low in place.

Friday May 25th -

Corn – Higher in what is called a failed down trend-day reversal.  This market pushed lower and looked like a nice trend day lower was a slam dunk but then reversed and came back up to have a semi-up trend at the close.  Next week will be interesting but Monday needs to be a higher day and is setup to be sharply higher as of today's close. 

Wheat – Another strong day...market is now in a bull leg according to indicators so we will buy a break.

Beans – Still going...look to own here on a break.

Rice – Quiet.  Looks like we will be dead for a while.

Natural Gas – Down 5 cents.  We were lower early and came back to close in the upper portion of the range.  A move under today's low signals a more dramatic test of support.

Crude Oil – Up $1.02 as the back and forth continues. 

Cattle – Down 5 points today.  Look for a bounce near term but we are not ready to buy here. 

Dow – Up 6.  If we get a good move higher early in the week, we will own more as this market heads for a significant top.   

Cotton -  Strong move higher today as we have confirmation a bottom is in.  Now we will finds resistance.

Thursday May 24th -

Corn – The market report said bull spreading based on lack of farmer selling but look at the wheat.  A nice move higher in the old crop as we gain 8 cents with July wheat up 14.  New crop December was up a couple and tonight is down a couple.  I think wheat had more to do with it and wheat could help support the corn near term if it keeps moving higher.  Drought talk has begun so look for more and more volatility here as we live from forecast to forecast.  The trend is still DOWN!!!  Don't forget that right now and as long as that trend is in place, it will be hard to get the big funds buying corn again.  I am still selling July calls and puts and it seems to be working fine.

Wheat – As I said last night we may be divorcing our selves from corn and today was great proof of that very fact.  I will be buying breaks here if I can get one.  Sellers of cash should still plan on storing and selling later in the summer. 

Beans – Still going...look to own here on a break.

Rice – Down in quiet trade.  Sales were terrible this morning but then again it is that time of year.  I see it going nowhere so I am using breaks to sell puts and rallies to sell calls. 

Natural Gas – Down 9 cents with crude off $1.52.  Buy a break here as it looks like a bad hurricane season and there will be a humdinger of a scare at some point. 

Crude Oil – Down $1.52 as demand for gasoline is expected to drop with the new inventory numbers.  We will own this break also. 

Cattle – Market is in a firm down draft looking for major support.  I am looking for 89 cents in June before this break is over. 

Dow – Down 84 on profit taking.  I still see no reason for it not to work higher but another solid correction is not out of the question. 

Cotton -  A nice come back of over 90 point after yesterday's 90 point break.  The volatility suggests a bottom.  Let's let it prove itself.

Wednesday May 23rd -

Corn – Very quiet compared to the last few days but once again the July contract will close near its low for the day even though it is down 1/2 cent.  No change from our ideas last night.  We may drift a little lower near term if the weather holds perfect....but it won't over time so the rock and roll conditions of the last few weeks is going to continue. 

Wheat – Up 6 cents and I like what I see here.  This may be the first step in wheat moving away from following corn.  Tomorrow will be interesting.

Beans – Continues higher.  I can see November over $8.50 near term and it doesn't care about corn at all. 

Rice – Up a couple in very quiet trading.  It can either direction short term but long term, the shortages in the US will being to affect new crop prices. 

Natural Gas – Down 5 cents with tomorrows injection numbers on the way.  We will see how the market handles those numbers and watch to see where crude finds support.

Crude Oil – Basically unchanged.  Nothing new to push the market as the inventory report had no real surprise.  I can see a further strengthening in the days ahead. 

Cattle – Follow through to the downside sets up this one to continue lower.  

Dow – Still struggling under the highs.

Cotton -  A hard break today as the market heads for support again.  Do not trade this one at all.

Tuesday May 22nd -

Corn – Monday night's crop progress and condition report was bearish and the market shot lower.  I must admit,  I was stunned at the crop condition report.  I guess we can say there is nowhere the condition can go but down right now, the crop is rated so good that I can see adding 5 to 10 bushels to the current market yield and that would mean a carryover close to 1.5 billion bushels and a market price 50 cents lower then where we are.  Will it stay that good?? Of coarse not but this could let the bears drive the train for a while and we could see a move toward $3.50 in the December contract.  We sold $3.90 calls for protection on long positions and we did get some help but still, the market crashed over 11 cents and closed at the lows and we even took out Monday's low which was a key reversal up.   

It will take something bullish to keep this one from going lower over the next few days.  We may consolidate, but the idea of a great crop with over 90 million acres indicates more then enough corn to meet demand and that spells lower prices even though you and I both know, this crop is a long way from being in the bins.  Still, near term, we could see more down.

 Wheat – Lower with corn and until we start to see yield data, that is the fate of wheat...following corn. 

Beans – We held up pretty good until corn started making new lows and then the beans gave up.  Down 6 on the day but with no major technical damage.  Still looks like long is the place to be with beans.

Rice – Gave back half  of yesterday's gains as the grain complex brought out the sellers.  We will wait to see where support is here but again, there is no rush to own rice. 

Natural Gas – Down today as crude gave up and natural gas pulled back.  Hey, that is OK with me, it gives us a chance to own it a little lower still.   A test of $7.80 is possible.  Look for Thursday's numbers to be bearish but...we all know that don't we???

Crude Oil – Ideas that gasoline inventory is on the rise and good weekly stocks numbers tomorrow had crude back on the defensive and giving back everything it made yesterday and then some.  Support is down at $64.00 and that is where we would want to own more.

Cattle – I wanted to see buying today and we saw nothing but selling.  Massive key reversal down with cattle off 115 points at the close.  Tomorrow you do not want to see follow through selling as we are setup to start a new leg down if that happens.

Dow – The market is still firm but struggling here at this level.  If we get through it, and I think we will, look for one more big push higher. 

Cotton -  Down 19 and holding over 50.  Nothing new so no reason to trade it. 

Monday May 21st -

Corn – The idea that rain will keep the last 3 to 4% from ever being planted sent corn up sharply today as the market knows it needs all the corn it can get to hold prices at this level.  The volatility should continue.  If you are long July, you might think about selling some covered calls here as the market goes back and forth but remains in a down trend.

Wheat – Higher with corn.  We still see a pre-harvest low in place and a higher close tomorrow may be a buy indication. 

Beans – Higher as well.  The market is considering if beans are way too low even if acres increase 1-2 million.  Could be.

Rice – Up 22 and closing near the high.  Friday's jerky sell off was almost taken back in one day as the sellers were not present.  We will look at open interest again today and see what it looks like.

Natural Gas – We bought gas and crude oil on the dip this morning believing the market wasn't going to finish lower on the4 day.  We were right in the crude but wrong in the natural gas even though we took home a profit on the trade.  I just can't be short here and with the weather going to be a major talking piece in the the next few weeks, look for higher levels near term.   

Crude Oil – We bought oil this morning and then again when it made new highs over last Friday's high.  We are a little over bought but could stretch it out another 50 to 75 cents.

Cattle – Nice firm close with the bullish cattle-on-feed report Friday.  I sure would like to see more buying tomorrow.

Dow – Up 20 as I make this but the S&P 500 is about to make new life time highs.  I expect the Dow to finish firm if that happens.

Cotton -  A close back over 50 cents with a nice 79 point gain today.  Can it hold?? 

Friday May 18th -

Corn – OK...down 2 to 4 as more traders talk of even higher acres...OK, right!!!  The market is testing support and it there.  Next week will be interesting as we get the plantings numbers on Monday night and then what???  The trend is still down and guys that is a huge fact you cannot get away from.  Don't try and pick a bottom, probe but don't marry.  I bought some more today to be honest as the market is setup for a surprise early in the week.  We will kill this crop 2 or 3 times over the next two months and on one of those "kills" we need to do some selling but it will be higher than where we are right now. 

Wheat – Testing support as the wheat looks better and traders think the condition report will look even better next Monday.  Can't argue much but still, there is going to be some ups here with the rest of the complex and yes, I still think we are putting in the pre-harvest low. 

Beans – Can't break much with more and more ideas of less bean acres. 

Rice – DOWN 30 on fund selling...   The market is now resting on support after very heavy selling by the funds today.  Over 2,000 contracts were sold today by the funds.  Rumors are that more and more rice is showing up with the GMO problem in the Arkansas rice storage facilities.  So what...it will be used domestically but the fact is there is plenty of rice left over from 2006 and we have known that.  There is no shortage of rice right now and though there will be in the future...that is why they call it the future!!!  This is a very short sighted market and always has been.  We are still not owning it big even though this break may be a golden buying opportunity.  The double "W" formation is gone but we are now making one one the weekly charts.  $10.64 in November is support and probably where the bears would like to push this one to see what is under that level.  We will watch the selling pressure on Monday and see if there is any to speak of.  A move over today's high sets up today as just another day in the wonderful rice market. 

Natural Gas – Reversal down today but will it follow through.  As I have been saying, we are running out of time for a major break here.  The trend is still up but could be violated next week but it will take some major selling to get us there. 

Crude Oil – Right up against the down trend line and the market reversed lower but just barley.  A move over Friday's high could really bring in some major buying. 

Cattle – Cattle-on-feed today was neutral to slightly bullish.  The market should be fir at the start on Monday. 

Dow – Up 79 and pushing for a top.  Right now there is none in sight.

Cotton -  Market has really balanced itself.  I am still not trading it but for now it looks like the down trend will be challenged at some point soon. 

Thursday May 17th -

Corn – Just as I said last night, we are testing support.  A trend day becomes possible tomorrow.  We are higher tonight by a couple of cents.

Wheat – Down hard today but we thought this one could test support as many are not ready to believe the lows are in...we do!!!

Beans – Over bought but it won't correct...odds favor an expansion market near term.  I wouldn't be short here.

Rice – Down on export sales...OK..right!!!  Its down because the market is sideways here.  Nothing new. 

Natural Gas – Up again...we are getting buy signals across the board.  We need follow through tomorrow. 

Crude Oil – Big day up as crude moves toward resistance with gasoline supplies still in question.  Buy breaks.

Cattle – Nothing new...

Dow – Down 10...it won't break yet.  Buy breaks. 

Wednesday May 16th -

Corn – Today was a consolidation day.  No changes from us as we still see it higher but a test of support near term is possible.

Wheat – Consolidation day as well here.  Nothing new from us as we see a possible pre-harvest low in place. 

Beans – Well, I missed this one today.  I see it consolidating soon as it is very over bought compared to the rest of the grains and the fundamentals.  Longer term higher but a correction remains likely in the days ahead. 

Rice – Dead as dead can be...nothing to write about.

Natural Gas – Up 5 after being down for a lot of the day.  It just won't break.

Crude Oil – Lower but well off the lows.  $62.00 is major support. 

Cattle – Nothing here either as we sit sideways. 

Dow – Another day higher. 

Cotton – AT LAST!!!  Market moved sharply higher from extreme oversold levels.  It just ran out of sellers and the shorts came to take profits and found no one there.   This is what we have been talking about might happen but when was the question.  Up 144 in the July...now is there follow through or was it a one day correction.  PB is now at 41% after being at 8%.  Wow!!!

Tuesday May 15th -

Corn – If you read our morning comments, I said to look for a reversal today and boy did we get it.  I wasn't predicting it I just thought odds were great for a change in the direction of the market emphasis from planting progress to true supply and demand concerns.  Also, today was a beautify, text book trend day higher.  I can't draw one better.  Every 30 minute period today the market made a new high until the last 15 minutes.  An 18 1/2 cent range in December Corn from the low, made on the open, to the high which was made just 30 minutes before the close.  Technically, this is a KEY REVERSAL UP as we took out yesterday's high and low and closed higher in a market in a down trend.  I have major buy signals on a close over $3.85 in the December tomorrow but the down trend is still 20 cents away.  One more thing, this is the second key reversal up in corn in the last 3 days.  Look for higher prices ahead as we take out the tend line and setup a weather market of massive volatility in the next 6 weeks.  Even so, remember, this market should do some back and fill while it awaits a change in the weather scenario. 

Wheat – Massive key reversal up here as well.  A close over today's high is a buy signal and a clear indication that the pre-harvest lows are in. 

Beans – We are up against some major resistance at this price level.  Look for some consolidation. 

Rice – Dead as dead can be...nothing to write about.

Natural Gas – Down 10 cents...I said last night that today was "not the day to buy it" as our short term indicator signaled a correction.  That has occurred and balanced the short-term indicator.  Nothing new on the long term forecasts as we see it higher later this summer and are praying for a break to own it big-time. 

Crude Oil – Up again but still in a down trend.  We will let it test the resistance levels and then look for direction. 

Cattle – Unchanged...nothing to do here just yet.

Dow – Big up day today but off the highs.  You do not want to see this thing crash later today.  Profit taking is not a bad idea here near term as the risk has grown today.

Cotton – YOU MEAN IT GOES UP????   No reversal up today but we did close higher and it was an inside day, trading with-in the range of yesterday.  Again, I am not trading it and if I were I would have tried twice to own it and both time I would have lost money...so, with that said, maybe the third time is a charm.  A technical trader will buy this one if it moves through YESTERDAY's high.  He would then place a stop at TODAY's Low or a new contract low.  Again, I'm not going to do it but the computer is signaling a low is coming soon. 

Monday May 14th - Updated at 8 PM

General Comment – All the markets are down tonight as plantings are at 78% which is pretty much close to normal (83%).  Imagine that!!!  As we said weeks ago, "it will get planted"...it always does...but that doesn't meant squat with out a harvest and that only happens on the crop that's grown.  You already know that but believe me there are some traders who think this crop is made and it will not take one week of dry weather to prove otherwise.  Tomorrow will be interesting and with the market down 4 right now, we are setup to consolidate another day; however, if we close higher on the day tomorrow, then the planting progress affects on the market are finally history. 

Soybeans, rice and wheat are lower with corn tonight but there are no surprises in those categories. 

Monday May 14th - I'll come back by 10PM with final comments on reports

Corn – Market is down in front of plantings this afternoon and profit taking from the big run on Friday.  This is what we call consolidation and in a volatile market, consolidation can last 1 to 3 days but not usually longer than that.   We will look at the numbers tonight and also get a quick look at the over night trade and then have a quick comment here before 10 PM. 

Wheat – We may have found the lows here.  Today was consolidation and with harvest still on the horizon, another check of support is possible.  I want to own it here but I'm not sure this is the exact time to wade in more than just a little of our base position.  Sellers should be waiting for higher prices down the road. 

Beans – Read Friday's comments.  We are back in here looking to sell higher if your growing it and looking to own it near term if you are a spec. 

Rice – Nothing here today as the market started higher but then sold off.  I still like it longer term but near term...who knows.  I think the commercials will try and keep a lid on it as long as they can. 

Natural Gas – Up 5 cents.  We have some very strong warning signals that a correction is about to happen here but this is a VERY SHORT-TERM indicator.  With that said, tomorrow is not the day to buy it. 

Crude Oil – Higher early but sold off.  A test of support is very possible and that is what we are hoping for. 

Cattle – Down 15 in June with nothing to tell us of a direction anytime soon.

Dow – Down 1 as I type this with an hour to go.  Still looks higher but the economy IS slowing.

Cotton – Down another 96 points.  This is why you never try and pick a bottom unless your Bill Gates.  No sign of a low.  With the US Farm Bill looking like a slaughter of the American farmer, cotton is not going anywhere near term. 

Friday May 11th -

Corn – Down 11 yesterday and up 14 to 17 today with a nice bullish report...what do you think???  Technically that puts the market only 6 cents higher then the Wednesday close so it looks to me we are not through going up near term.  In general the report was not incredibly bullish but it signals the tightness with about an 8% stocks to use ratio.  That is the second lowest in the last 30 years.  If we are right and the acres are not there and the yield will come down another 2 to 4 bushels...lookout!!!  We will remain long but remember, this market will top before the 2007 harvest and we want to be sold heavily before combines run in the Mid-west.  Do not marry a long position but near term, it is the best game in town. 

We sold more July puts today on the open and then bought futures just like we mentioned in our Mid-day comments.  We have a couple of cents profit in that tonight but again, we will not be in there for very long as the TREND IS STILL DOWN.  The trend line now runs through about $3.90 in the December with the recent high of $3.93 also a major point. 

 Wheat – Higher but off the highs.  Near term we may still see more pre-harvest pressure but I think the next three weeks will put an end to the bear side of wheat. 

Beans – The beans are back in vogue at Progressive Futures.  The new carryover number for next year is still high at 320 million bushels but it supports the current price and if we get a weather scare, $9.00 beans is very possible.  We will be doing some option strategies in the near future but will let the market breathe a little after this report.  That means, we will let the air coming from the report leak out before buying premium.   

Rice – Higher today.  The USDA report is bullish but remember, the guys who need the rice are very short sighted and right now all they see the current carryover.  We may sit sideways or a little higher for a couple of months.  Then again, if next months report trims a few acres and lowers yields, we may not sit sideways very long. 

Natural Gas – Higher again!!!  This market should break and it just won't.  Every time it looks like it is going to take out the trend line it comes right back.  Crude is too low so look for no pressure early next week but this weeks low is major support in the summer months.

Crude Oil – Nice push higher but the down trend is still intact.  For now we will be nervously out of the market but any news could send this one right back to $66.00.  It is hard to get too bearish here. 

Cattle – Cattle up 80 looking at feed supply again.  PB is at 42% so no reason to own it just yet but we are doing some damage to the bearish chart formation.

Dow – Down 147 yesterday up 111 today...what else is new.  We still see it higher. 

Cotton – OUCH!!!  The USDA cut carryover by 1/3rd from last year and cotton drops like a lead brick.  No demand remains the problem here.  Cotton is not is style apparently.  For now I remain looking to buy and here is good news.  We are testing the recent low but we have not taken it out yet.  If we can reverse again from down in this level, we might actually have a buy signal to take.  Here's hoping.

Thursday May 10th - Very Short Again Tonight

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Corn – Down hard in front of the USDA report.  We closed right on major support.  Tomorrow everyone is expecting a bearish report...we will see.  Tomorrow the key will be the stocks to use ratio NOT the actual ending stocks.  Look for an ending stocks for next year around 1.1 billion which will be above the current average guess. 

 Wheat – Very quiet...we will wait for the number here as well.

Beans – Nothing new...following corn.

Rice – Lower by 4 cents and nothing to write home about.  We will look at the numbers in the morning before saying anything. 

Natural Gas – Unchanged for the most part.  This one needs to roll over but it just won't do it.  Tomorrow is another day.

Crude Oil – Consolidating and waiting on news.  May push lower one more time. 

Cattle – Nothing today and I have no comments.

Dow – Down 147.  Another break to buy???  Hard to tell with the news on housing getting worse and worse. 

Cotton – Still nothing.

Wednesday May 9th - Very Short Tonight

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Corn – Consolidation just as expected.  A trend day is possible tomorrow but which direction.  Make sure you read this mornings comments and last night's again. 

 Wheat – Consolidation as we head into the normal down trending time period.    Look for an early low this year.  We want to own this break.

Beans – Nothing new...following corn.

Rice – Still unwinding from last Friday.  If this market is good, it needs to go in the next few days.  Maybe the WASDE report will have a surprise....NAH!!!  Not from the USDA...a bullish surprise???  NAH!!!!.

Natural Gas – Down early but here it comes back again and finishes up a little at the close.  The trend is up but I think that trend will change and it is that down trend we want to buy as it ends. 

Crude Oil – Closed well off lows but still down 79 on the day  We could have found the support we have been waiting for.  Let's look at the technical action tomorrow. 

Cattle – Nothing today and I have no comments.

Dow – Up 53...we still see it higher.

Cotton – Dead... 

Tuesday May 8th -

Corn – Big day down as corn collapsed with the plantings reaching 53% complete up almost 30 percent in one week.  This break is fine with us and I know the question you will be asking is, when do we buy it.  The safest point is 3 to 5 cents off of the lowest low since the high.  That low is $3.55 in July so if you want to take a shot at it, buy it at $3.60 and then at $3.57 and set a stop at $3.55 on a close only basis with a stop at $3.50.  That means if the market closes under $3.55 but never trades down to $3.50 you would get out on the close.  Is July going to go that low...could but I give it small odds right now.  Fact is we still have 47% to plant, it has rained again since the good planting weekend and May 15th is a week away so odds favor us staying behind in plantings and that we don't plant 90.5 million acres.  If it then starts to get really hot...look out.

For you guys wanting to do options to get long in this level, look at selling the $3.30 September put and buying the $4.00/$4.50 option spread.  Remember, another 10 cents down is not going to change the cost of that strategy much so now is a s good of time as any.  

 Wheat – Down with corn and looking kind of sick.  The crop is rebounding according to condition reports and I don't know anything different so we may sit sideways until the combines start to roll, then look for a move higher. 

Beans – Nothing new...following corn.

Rice – Down solidly today as the other grains worked lower.  Read our comments for the last several updates, nothing new as the market didn't work higher so we are back  in waiting mode. 

Natural Gas – Down 14 again.  This IS the break we have been looking forward to and we will want to start owning this one as it signals a bottom. 

Crude Oil – Higher today but down now overnight by 8 cents.  Still looks weak to me. 

Cattle – Up 37 points with no conviction so we remain out and the market remains range bound. 

Dow – Down 3...  No changes...higher ahead.

Cotton – Up 10 today.  Going nowhere right now but it could have a nice pop to really balance the books.

Monday May 7th -

Corn – The last thing I wrote Friday was..."So, bottom line is I am bullish but see some downside potential near."  As I type this we are down 10 cents AGAIN in the overnight session as the planting progress jumped 30%.  That puts us 32 cents off of today's high and 21 cents off of Friday's close.  Once again, this market is not easy to trade and one must have patience because things will change again and soon. 

We are still behind in plantings but have a done a good job of catching up.  Now, we will await and see what the current weather does.  My opinion is that the pre-summer lows are in but could be tested.  I don't want to be short or long here and as I wrote last Thursday, I have gotten out of spec positions but tomorrow, I might be right back in depending on how the market trades. 

Wheat – Down again with crop conditions improving over the last week.  $3.82 is support and needs to hold near term but the corn may be in enough trouble, wheat could break down through that level. 

Beans – Down with corn.  Look for more downside here.  It will take weather now to turn the market and by that I mean hot and dry weather. 

Rice – Sold off today finishing down 6-9 cents.  This is not what I wanted to see so now we need to take out last nights high level to be back in the long side.  Patience!!!

Natural Gas – Down 14 and looking weaker near term.  We will be buying this break and hope it's a good one.

Crude Oil – Lower but off the lows.  A little bounce here tomorrow is possible. 

Cattle – Down 17 and waiting for more news.  We could sell off a bit more but I don't see a major break coming here.

Dow – Up 48 and still going.  No changes...higher ahead.

Cotton – Up today but I want to see what it does against some resistance levels.  PB (Click on PB for explanation of what it is) remains under 20 but it is now up to 13%.  Nothing to write home about but a nice bounce from this level remains possible.

Friday May 4th - Written Saturday morning at 6 AM

Corn – Read Thursday's comments.  Market finished a little higher but still below major resistance points.

LET'S TALK:  I want to be perfectly clear on what I think about the market today.  Over the next one to three weeks we are subject to another break if the weather dries out and guys, it is May so the weather will start to dry out.  So right now I am looking for a weather "philosophy change" one that takes us from wet weather being bullish to wet weather being bearish.  Remember, we are being delayed in getting the crop planted.  Once it is planted it will need water along the way and with La Nina as a possibility, we will switch to a "need rain" issue.  That transition can take 2 days or 2 weeks but it will happen and I see a drop in prices over this next three weeks.  DO NOT SHORT THE MARKET.  That is not what I am suggesting.  Longer term I am bullish and have said repeatedly, do not short the market.  From a speculative nature, I took off longs Thursday (as I wrote last night)...right or wrong I don't care because I am now out of the market as a speculator.  As a hedger, I am still 50% long and ready to buy the break but I want to buy it AFTER the weather dries up a little and plantings get further along.  I hope that is clear.  Think of it as a hill directly in front of us and we will buy on the downside of that hill. 

Can you buy it now and be OK...sure.  Be prepared for the market to possibly go against you 20 to 30 cents and maybe even more.  That is the risk but even so, I still see market higher longer term.  It is just if you want to ride it down...that is the question. 

For some of you who don't want to wait and want a limited risk trade in this topsy-turvy market.  Consider the 410/450 September call spread.  You can buy that for 12 cents ($600 and that is all you can lose) and have maximum profit of 28 cents or $1900.  Another one but it has a shorter horizon is the July 400/420 call spread.  This one costs you 6 cents ($300) and can make you 14 cents of $700 maximum.  It has only 48 left in it so you would have to believe July corn will rally more than 30 cents over the next 48 days.  Be careful in these trades because some commission houses will charge you a double commission so as in the case of the last one, it would cost you 8 cents with a maximum profit of 12 cents. 

Again, these are some ideas if you are bullish right here and want to own something that doesn't cost a fortune and lets you play the game.  I prefer the September options just because I will be selling July options in about 10 days as they have a lot of "fat" in them right now. 

So, bottom line is I am bullish but see some downside potential near term.

Wheat – Unchanged with little to add from Thursday.  I am buying breaks.

Beans – Still quiet.  I see it lower without weather problems. 

Rice – Up 27 to up 36 on a lack of selling.  We ran stops several times Friday as the market exploded into stops several times and at one time was offered limit up as the best offer.  It never traded limit up but still, it tells us the sellers were just ready for the buying that came their way.  I don't see any major news causing this so again I'll say, I like the market longer term but near term, there are going to be some ups and downs and today was an up for sure.  Lets see what happens Monday.  I know some of you will be asking if this it? Is this the beginning of the major move??  It could be but we are still almost 50 cents off the contract highs, the up trend line off the "W" bottom is now 40 cents lower and history says pops like this do not hold without a major fundamental change to go along with the move...so, it could be, but I want to see how it trades early next week.   

Natural Gas – A little lower with a spike reversal formation off of major resistance,  We could sell off here next week but how many times have I said that?  We want to buy a break and its like the market is waiting for us to buy it before it breaks...I'll wait a bit longer. 

Crude Oil – Big day down as major fund selling rocked the market.  I am still in buy mode on this break.  Patience is a virtue and in this market, it is right down hard to wait.  I have waded in twice and been hit both times but I will try again.  We might dip under $60 but this is a buying opportunity. 

Cattle – Mad cow found in Canada and the market was up 45 points...read last nights comments as we told you the break yesterday was based on the news coming out of Canada.  Today's trade was subdued as more news is needed to know direction but again, the risk here is limited given the high price of feed.

Dow – Up 23 and still going.  No changes...higher ahead.

Cotton – PB is up to 14% from a low of 7% but that is still no reason to buy this one.  Cotton is up 12 today.  As I said last night I want to sell some out of the money puts but I really didn't have the chance today so I'm still out (speculative) looking for a better signal.  It might come from a higher price but I will wait.

Thursday May 3rd -

Corn – Up 7-8.  A strong day but we closed off the highs by 6 cents as well.  Weather remains the problem as more rain is headed to the Mid-west; however, some weather forecasters have taken some of the rainfall levels out of their forecasts which let the market sink back.  In general here is my opinion.  The lows for this leg are in and until there is a concrete determination of the acres, corn will not make new lows in July.  At the same time, the market is against MAJOR resistance and with the market still thinking 90.5 acres could happen, the market will have a hard time penetrating $4.00 in July and holding it.  So...Any break near term needs to be bought.  I actually sold the market today just because we were against resistance.  Time will tell if I can buy it back cheaper.

Next Friday we get the May WASDE report.  We will have Webinar next Friday morning at 8:30AM.  You will be able to register for it starting this weekend.  That report will be important but don't expect any changes in acres in the numbers.  The interesting issues will the USDA's demand tables.  Since the USDA has the acres planted they need, look for them to trim Demand as much as they can.  They want stable prices and they would like lower prices as well so I am already expecting a bearish report next week.  That too could be the ideas of the market near term and keep us under $4.00; however, if the weather turns off wetter and wetter, the market will sense the trouble and head for higher ground.  All in all, it is a weather market near term. 

Wheat – Up 1 today as the market sold off from highs but once again, we see the market having a hard time to go higher.  If corn backs off, so could wheat but rain is not what is needed for much of the wheat area.  For now, we are long but ready to pull the plug.

Beans – Unchanged to down 1.  Looks like a hammer head formation which forecasts tomorrow as a down day with 40% odds of a trend day lower.  It is a weather market so I give it even less odds of being right but all in all, this market should not be going up for the same reason corn is. 

Rice – Up 10 to 12 but nothing to get excited about.  The "W" bottom is forming but the market doesn't have to explode out of here but that would be nice.  PB is 42% so this may be the same type of rally we have gotten the last 6 weeks...one that goes no where. 

Natural Gas – Higher today as the market went against the rest of the complex based on the supply report.  June was up 20 points so now we need to see if the market follows through.  La Nina is here and that could mean a nasty hurricane season and this market is cheap under $8.00 if a hurricane gets in the gulf.

Crude Oil – Another down day but I bought against support which was at 62.90.  I'll dump it quickly but we are oversold to the down side and overall, fundamentals are not that bearish given current demand and refinery levels.  There is always two way to look at a glass of water but I find it hard to see it half empty just because the oil levels are higher than last year.  They remain way under average levels of inventory and the gasoline levels are even worse so we need crude in the pipeline more than we have it right now.  I am buying this break.

Cattle – Mad cow found in Canada and cattle collapsed.  The traders all came out and said "mad cow" had nothing to do with the trade today it was boxed beef being lower.  SURE... RIGHT...and my mother will win the Olympics decathlon at the age of 80...when will they ever learn.  We do not break 300 points in feeder cattle on a 26 cent drop in boxed beef.  Yes, yesterday it was down $2.00 but even then, cattle doesn't break 300 points even on that kind of news.  Face it, this was on mad cow being breathed under the breaths of those in the know and needing to trade.  Look for another push down and then a failure.  It is buy the rumor sell the fact or in this case, sell the rumor buy the fact and as of tonight...WE ALL KNOW.

Dow – Up 29 and still going.  No changes...higher ahead.

Cotton – Cotton down 25 with a hook reversal down after yesterday's hook reversal up.  We are starting to bottom.  I will take a shot at selling some out of the money July Puts tomorrow.  I'll let you know how that goes.

Wednesday May 2nd -

Corn – Up 3-4.  The market is right on the downward trend line and could take it out tomorrow.  Does this shift it into a major bull move, not likely.  What it does do is signal the the down ward move is over and the market may go into a sideways range to be yanked around by the weather.  All it will take is for the forecasts to take out some of the rain and we will see a significant drop here.  We have two weeks for the market to see what percentage of the corn crop is going to be planted after May 15th. 

Wheat – Lower today by 7 cents but not a trend day and in fact, if we take out today's highs, this market is set to move 20 to 30 higher near term.  We will see the setup for in the morning but I got to tell you, this looks like we could move higher in a hurry.  Why???  Look at how we did today's action.  Low was made early bu just a penny and then late by a penny but the market couldn't accelerate down and finished in the middle of the trading range for the day.  That is pure consolidation and it may be a text book consolidation day in a leg before its over. 

Beans – Down 6.  I couldn't figure yesterday out.  The corn market was up on wet weather delaying planting and yet the beans were up on the fact the corn was going to get planted on time...which is it guys??? They may have answered that question today.

Rice – Down again today as the market lost 2 cents and continues its probing for support.  I am looking to buy it around $10.80 in the November.  Pretty dead in here.  Deliveries were at 44 this morning and are through April 30. 

Natural Gas – Mainly unchanged.  We see a break here but where have you heard that before.  This market is changing plateaus.   A move to $7.20 in the July is going to be a GIFT!!!

Crude Oil – Down hard again today as the market unwinds from supply concerns.  The down draw on gasoline supplies didn't keep gas from correcting after its march to higher ground.  $62.50 is where I will start buying more June crude.  I doubt I get my chance tomorrow. 

Cattle – Down 2 in June with nothing to talk about.  Cash prices for boxed beef are steady but buyers are not buying aggressively in front of Mother's day.  That might change for Memorial Day as beef is more featured in that celebration. 

Dow – Up 75 and looking good.  Let's hope it keeps going for a while.

Cotton – Up 34 with the market as dead as ever. 

Tuesday May 1st -

Corn – Powerful day higher with corn up 10-14 cents on concerns of more wet weather headed into the corn belt this coming weekend.  From a technical picture tonight, this market looks like it might challenge the down ward trend line at $3.84 tomorrow.  Until; threat trend line is destroyed by the July contract, the trend is still down but man is it in trouble.  If the weather forecasts are proven correct, as much as 50% of the Iowa and Illinois corn crop will be planted AFTER May 15th.  That would mean huge risk in yields and in my opinion with almost $8.00 beans, a 1 to 2 percent decline in acres nation wide putting the planted acres closer to 88 million then 90.5.  I will not go on with the math just suffice it to say, $4.50 July corn is a real possibility.  We remain long the call spread and futures and will own more on a buy signal.  On this move, we will be aggressive but we will drop our trade size a bit. 

Wheat – Nice reversal today.  Today's low is not major support and if we close over $5.05 in the July tomorrow, this could push us toward $5.20 very rapidly.  We are long here as well.

Beans – Up 13 today but I want to see how this one trades tomorrow.  Corn up 14 and beans up 12 is a tale telling signal.  We need to get a grip on it before buying it. 

Rice – Dead today.  Deliveries are current and small.  Where is all the dumping of receipts we were warned about.  You think those mills are not so anxious to dump rice right here???  Ya think!!!   We may not rally much from here but this is looking like the lows right now. 

Natural Gas – Down 14 with crude falling off.  Weak longs are exiting but are the sellers any stronger???  Time will tell and we will buy this break.

Crude Oil – Big correction day as Crude blasts lower down $1.21.  We may see $63.50 before this one stops but brother, it is going to stop...I am buying this break.  In fact, I will be up late tonight looking at the overseas action because this one is prime for a reversal. 

Cattle – Down 12 with a 75 point range or so.  We'll let the buyers and sellers fight it out near term.

Dow – Up 73 today as the market tries to hold this level.  So far so good but tomorrow is another day.

Cotton – Down 1.06 with a PB now of 7%...good grief!!!  50 cent July calls anyone???