Thursday November 30th -  

Corn - INCREDIBLE!!!  While the market finished 5 to 6 cents higher that doesn't tell the whole story.  AT 12:40 corn was trading up 6 cents on the day...at 1:06 it was trading down 6 cents on the day...a 12 cent break...then at the close it had retraced the 12 cents again and finished up.  As I said last night, this may not be a good one to trade near term.  We are holding cash corn long positions and for now, no sales or hedges are recommended but I must admit, the action today is again indicative of a top.  Today's low is now support but that is down 12 cents from the close so Friday already looks to be a consolidation day. 

Major support zone is at $3.72 with the longer term support line at $3.35...we are a long way from that line which is why we say there is high risk in the market even though we remain bullish longer term.  In order for these support zones to be tested, I think it is going to take some bearish news and we just don't have any right now. 

Wheat  - Nice finish here but still below our break out point.  We are still holding cash for the 1st and second quarters for higher prices.

Beans - Getting whiplash just watching this one too.   Not near the volatility but it is getting to where one can trade the beans with less risk for daily movement then corn...never seen that before.  In other words, if we need some risk protection, it may be safer to sell beans then corn.  Go figure. 

Rice - Market worked higher but now the question is can it follow through.  We have been talking about a delayed spike move higher and this could be the first day of that but I'm not that confident.  A move over $10.09 will say it is underway but that is major resistance in the current sideways tilt and may be more then enough of a deterrent to the advance. 

Natural Gas - Just as we said last night, the sellers were waiting just a little higher then yesterday and we sold off and finished down just a bit.  Resistance holds at $9.05 in the January but this cold snap still has the bears attention.  WE do have an indicator saying conditions are right for this to be the beginning of a trend but there is no other confirmation on that and the fundamentals do not line up with it either so our bias remains sideways here.  $8.61 is support near term with odds 50-50 of that holding on a test tomorrow. 

Dow - Market worked lower early but has come back into positive territory as I type this at 2:15 PM.  The trend is still up and long positions should be held.  A move under Tuesday's low would pressure the market for a solid correction. 

Wednesday November 29th -  

Corn - The markets came all the way back and closed higher on the day after starting down on ideas that deliveries may be heavy and funds are taking profits before the end of the month.  The market looked to be establishing a trend change early but failed to follow the trend line lower and finished strong.  We decided to step aside of our longs today once we rallied back to the down trend line and that proved wrong as we pushed on higher.  The volatility continues but every time we break, the selling dries up.  Near term this could be really hard to trade as the volatility is big and the market has large swings.  The longer term trend remain up so do not be short.  I'm just not sure I want to be long here either.  What a market!!!

Wheat  - Nice reversal in wheat today setting up a test again of moving higher and out of the current flag formation.  Sellers should be watching the trend here closely.  A move over $5.30 in the March sets up a new leg higher.

Beans - Beans are off the lows but still down on the day.  No reason to change strategies.  We will sell a good rally here but the question of acres in 2007 needs to be answered before a major break looks to occur. 

Rice - Sideways at best.  No bounce and no sign of a delayed news spike.  We remain 50% long our base position which is buy backs for the most part.  We could be quiet for 8 weeks.

Natural Gas - Higher on weather...now we wait to see if the market can break out...I think there is going to be sellers just a little higher then where are but we are not trading just yet as we still see a sideways market.  

Dow - Market rallied right off of the daily support line on our main indicator but after it broke the actual trend line.  tomorrow's trading will be important to see if there is any follow through.

Tuesday November 28th -  

Corn - Market was setup to consolidate at lower levels just as we pointed out in the morning update.  We saw a break possible of up to 8 cents and sure enough got one close to 7.  At the finish , we are right in the middle of the daily range so it looks like consolidation and it could last through the first days of deliveries.  It's hard to say what the impact deliveries will have on the market but if there are few deliveries, things could get dicey for awhile.  I doubt there is a problem but we'll have to see.   

Wheat  - We found support at $4.80 here so now the question is can we run for $5.00 again and close over that level.  We think so.  No changes in recommendations right now.

Beans - Support line is at $6.78 or 8 cents lower than the close but today was a good consolidation day.  Tomorrow could test the lows again but at the same time we may find buyers readily available on a break.  Still looks higher but breaks will be here as well.

Rice - Nothing new here today so now we wait for the delayed re-action IF it is going to happen.  I doubt it but who knows.  We have a couple of days for the market to work back toward resistance.

Natural Gas - Cold weather and more coming has gas working higher.  It still looks sideways on the charts as there is plenty of supply to provide the heat. 

Dow - Market is finding support but the Dollar collapse can have more of an impact on the Dow futures near term.  We are out waiting for more information.

Monday November 27th -  

Corn - Today was a consolidation day as the market finished higher but off of the highs and the lows.  There was no push higher even though the market rallied mid day to make a new high.  We could sit here for a little bit and allow for some profit taking but the trend is no back to higher and the target price o $3.80 remains near term with $4.00 no out of the question for December IF deliveries are a concern.

Wheat  - No breakout with a lower day.  Lets see where the buying comes back in and at that level, we may want to own it.

Beans - Consolidation day as well but it looks like it will move higher as well. 

Rice - USDA approved LL601 on Friday but the market did nothing today as we kind of expected.  There is a possibility of a delayed reaction.  The question is how aggressive sellers are in this area.  We still see a risk of 30 cents down but not more then that as the cash price remains supportive of the the current futures level.

Natural Gas - Market higher today but still sideways for now. 

Dow - Correction underway.  As I type this its down 160 points.  We will buy this coming out of this corrective sell off.

Sunday November 26th -  Took a little time off for the Holiday...How about them Aggies!!!

Corn - The market was higher on Friday as we again closed at the highest levels ever for the December contract.  As I said last Wednesday, the market is telling us it wants to go higher and new contract highs are dead ahead.  the $3.80 to $4.00 window for December corn is possible as the USDA S&D report for December is expected to tighten up the supply again and there is no sign of stopping the current rationing.  We will want to sell 20% of our 2006 crop and maybe some of the 2007 crop in the next few weeks but for now, it looks like we will just move on higher.

Wheat  - The market looks to be breaking out of a bullish flag formation that would set the market to work sharply higher.  Couple that with the corn move, we could be in for a good move here near term that will give the chance to sell some of our remaining inventory. 

Beans - The market is breaking into new highs as the beans give chase to corn.  We could bounce here another 50 cents with little trouble if corn is headed over $4.00 in the next few weeks. 

Rice - USDA approved LL601 on Friday so we might get a bounce but from that but we need a bounce because of other factors as well.  The USDA is expected to cut exports again in this next months report so we could hold here waiting for the news but if the other grains keep going, rice will not be able to move much lower. 

Cattle - Nothing new here but with new highs in corn, it will be interesting to see the action in the cattle.  We see a bounce possible but longer term we still see the down trend holding into the spring of next year.

Natural Gas - Still sideways for now. 

Dow - Market is holding at this level but is very quiet.  Corrections remain possible but a move over 12,400 before the end of the year is sure possible.

Wednesday November 22nd -  

Corn - Interesting day as the market started higher with last nights action pushing the market up 4 cents at the open only for us to sell off the first hour and then make the low of the day at 3.57 1/2 which was 8 cents off the high.  Here is what is interesting, we finished up only 1 3/4 cents for the day but it was the highest close we have ever had for the December contract.  Yep, a contract high close.  Not a new high because that is still 8 cents higher but this is the highest close we have ever had and that is after yesterday's highest close.  Seems to me, this market wants to go higher and I have turned from leaning to a near term top to believing a new high is dead ahead.  If we run higher over the next two weeks, we may want to sell 20% of our old crop on the first signs of a sell signal.  This will get us something on the books at extremely profitable levels.  This will probably be a price to carry contract if you can get it so as to get a little more storage if your farmer owned.

At the same time, I want to point out the possibility of a correction near term as well.  Risk right here is 30 cents to the downside so do not get too extended.  If you are in futures and can not live through a 30 cents break, we would lighten up.  I am about 55% to 45% confident of a move higher and if we close over $3.67, I will move toward the 75% level of confidence on a move higher toward $3.80 or higher.   

Wheat  - Wheat looks to be consolidating as PB is down to 58% after being at 89% on October 17th.  The market could rock back and forth between 40% and 60% but it has certainly done enough to balance the books.  A move over $4.96 will trigger short covering and a possible low for the wheat contract.

Beans - The market did not hold the gains today but the Palm oil market remains very supportive and the chart is sideways in congestion as well.  Tonight's close is the 2nd highest close for the January contract.  It too is looking like it wants to go higher. 

Rice - No real follow through to the downside as commercial buying was seen as lifting the market off of lows today and the fund selling from yesterday wasn't here.  Market is sideways and could be for weeks.  We will still buy breaks and probably sell rallies near term but longer term, we want to own it even more than the current 50% we have on.

Cattle - Stronger here today as the COF report from last week has totally been absorbed and the market didn't sell off on the news of the huge inventory.  Live cattle was higher today with Feeder cattle very strong.  We'll see if we can't get a nice little bounce here. 

Natural Gas - Extremely quiet but near the lows.  We will sell a good rally here and just hope we can get one to sell.

Dow - Nothing today and probably nothing on Friday.  We would like to buy a break here but the market is accepting the gains which is bullish near term.

Tuesday November 21st -  

Corn - Another quiet day as the market accepts the value of the current sideways range.  Actually, today was a very small hook reversal up but I wouldn't read too much into it.  The market is looking at major resistance over $3.65 and it will take a close up there to push us toward $4.00.  Near term, we could go quiet but then again, we could be extremely busy on lighter volume the rest of this week and into next. 

Wheat  - Wheat was higher today after the spike yesterday so again, no follow through on the selling.  Looks like we are sideways here for the time being. 

Beans - Stronger day but also not above major resistance.  This one doesn't want to break and it may take some time for us to see the beans lower.  A lot of unanswered questions remain.

Rice - Big sell off today which was reported as speculative selling along with funds.  Commercials bought it at the lows and we closed off the lows even though we finished down 22 cents.  This market remains sideways and could be in a lack luster trading range for some time.  We see it sideways and those who need to own positions should remain at 50% long their base waiting for more news.  A break to $9.60 in January is possible but also, remember this market could accordion until it knows for sure what plated acres are really looking like for 2007.  Accordion means the market will work into the prior months trading range as it heads toward expiration. 

Cattle - Stronger here today as the COF report from last week has totally been absorbed and the market didn't sell off on the news of the huge inventory.  Live cattle was higher today with Feeder cattle very strong.  We'll see if we can't get a nice little bounce here. 

Natural Gas - Nothing new...still sideways.

Dow - Very quiet still.  We'll buy a pull back.

Monday November 20th -  

Corn - News that Argentina is suspending corn exports propelled the market higher at the open.  Remember, they are 6 months off from us so they have a harvest coming up in April.  Even so, it is another example of how tight things are going to be.  The bulls are getting tired of getting kicking down every time the market moves over $3.60.  Today could be a bull trap but on a break, the buying will probably be right back in here.  The huge open interest could be a problem especially before the end of the year.

Let's talk:  I wish I had a better feel for the market.  I see the huge open interest as a real problem and the fact that we have so much corn that can come to the cash market before year's end, is a bearish factor as well. It may be timing as much as anything but a close over $3.67 sets us up to advance toward $4.00 fairly quickly.  Longer term I like it, near term, it could chop us to pieces so for now, I would only buy breaks and sell rallies.  In any event, I would not be short.  I'll say it again...DO NOT BE SHORT!!!

Wheat  - Well off of the highs with a spike...one again, the heat shows us it can go down pretty easily and it is holding the down trend in place.  No reason to own it at all just yet.

Beans - Higher today as it holds up very easily.  $6.51 remains our sell point.

Rice - Higher today with little activity.  I don't know who wants to push this market down with all the other commodities still driving higher and looking good into the early part of next spring.  We will buy breaks but for now, we must be very careful.

Cattle - Nothing new here.  Cattle on feed was a nothing, that is why we said nothing about it.  The numbers are bearish as we see the gradual trend as being down. 

Natural Gas - Nothing new...still sideways.

Dow - Very quiet still.  We'll buy a pull back.

Friday November 17th -  

Corn - Back and forth the ball goes as the bulls and bears battle it out!!!  When we said it was topping hard, many wondered just what we meant.  Now you know.  After the sell off yesterday and early follow through today, the market reversed back up on the day as once again the funds came in to buy.  Nothing has changed for us as it looks like a top is forming.  If I am wrong, it will not be the first time and in any event, we sit here long almost two whole crops while we are talking about a possible top.  What a tough business. 

We will see the COT report later today and look at the trade on Friday.  Today's low becomes important with the hook-reversal up today.  If there is follow through on Monday, we could again test the $3.67 high and if we can get through it, we will be looking for another 15 to 30 cents up.  Give it room and again, this is a good market to watch.     

Wheat  - Closed near the highs and up on the day but the trend is still down here.  To me the risk near term is not that great so I wouldn't be pressing the short side.  I can see us sideways at some point just before breaking out to the upside on a weather scare. 

Beans - Market holding as $6.52 to $6.55 remains support.  $6.75 is resistance and could be tested next week if corn tries to test its high. 

Rice - Nice little move up today but still nothing too big.  We remain 50% long on buy backs and long cash if not using futures.  Risk remains for buying more futures just yet and I do not want to burden our margin accounts.  

Cattle - Down today after corn failed to really move lower on the day.  I still see the overall trend here as down.

Natural Gas - Nice little run today.  I still see it sideways.  Longer term, I might like to buy it down near support at $7.20 to $7.40 in January.  

Dow - Slow move higher as the market is like a person testing the water with their toe.  I can see a little pull back as we head into the end of November. 

Thursday November 16th -  

Corn - As I said last night, this market looks like it is putting in a top.  Today's action seemed to even confirm our ideas.  We may still chop around here.  Seems like the night guys like buying the market and getting the market higher on the open of the ext day but that is backfiring on them once corn moves over the $3.62 level as the buying dries up and the corn selling increases.  A move under $3.50 will set up a test of the weekly low at $3.40 and it will take a move under that level to really flush out the funds at this point.  Again, remember the funds will do two things...drive the market too high...and then drive it too low!!!  While I do not see the funds getting short, I do think they could sell up to 50% of their current position and who is going to buy that much corn between now and Christmas.  At the same time, the market may very well absorb another round of selling and still hold the $3.40 support zone.  If it does, we may see another assault of the highs.  I'll say it again, this market will top hard which means just when you think you have it figured out, the market goes the other way.  If you have not sold what you need to for the fourth quarter, do it now.  If you need to sell some corn in the 1st quarter, we have no problem with you selling at least 25% of that right here.  Unless you just absolutely have no choice, we would be no more than 25% sold even though we can see a 30 to 40 cent move off this weeks high. 

Wheat  - Another hard day down...we are sold here looking for a buy back.  Corn farmers might want to look at the wheat chart.  Corn could look just like it in 3 weeks.

Beans - Holding up but where is it going??? Concern that acres are flying over into corn has the market holding but come on...there is too much inventory here and a bunch to sell.  Hedgers and specs may want to sell more beans if today's low at $6.51 is taken out.   

Rice - Lower today but still within the current sideways trading range.  I can still see a test of recent support and so far no reason to buy it more than the 50% we currently own.

Cattle - Big day up today with more signs of lower feed grain prices ahead for a short time.  We want to sell a good rally here and hope we have a couple of weeks to work higher.  Trend remains down.

Natural Gas - Still sideways in my book.  It was lower today as traders watch weather.  Support should hold near term.

Dow - Continuing higher.  We remain cautiously bullish as odd of a soft landing increase.

Wednesday November 15th -  

Corn - Corn rallied right up to the top made last week as we were up 8 cents at one point, only to fail and end  up only 1/2 cent which is another spike formation from above $3.60.  As I said this morning, the volatility is going to be something near term but odds still favor that a top has either been made or is very close to being finished.  There is a chance we could push higher one more time toward $3.80 but again, the owners of corn are not the end users right now and we have a bunch of corn ready to sell.  There is a shortage of corn longer term but near term, it is hard to think we have a shortage of $3.60 corn.  It is a good one to watch.  We did get back short today on the reversal going into the close.  It is a limited risk trade with the high of today as our stop point.

Wheat  - We finished 16 cents off of the highs here.  Looks like the down trend will continue.

Beans - Looks like more signs of a top here as well.  Corn could hold this one up near term but again, there is a lot of cash beans to come to the market.  We remain short term bearish and sold in this one. 

Rice - No sign of any direction.  USDA is expected to announce the approval of the 601 variety causing all the uproar in the export market.  We could get a little bounce from that but I doubt much. 

Cattle - Up all day and closing strong. This rally should be sold but lets hope there is more in it than this.

Natural Gas - Still sideways in my book.  A cold snap ahead could get us a nice bounce but it should be sold. 

Dow - A new all time high close.  As we expected the market is shaking off the elections for now.  We will see how the market responds to more information on earnings near term.  Still looks higher but looks can be deceiving. 

Tuesday November 14th -  

Corn - WOW!!!   The auto makers brought ethanol to the forefront today and the market put in a very strong trend day higher when we were expecting a trend day down.  Once the trend day started which was up 4 cents on the day, we took off every short on the books and went to the sidelines.  This will be interesting as the market continues to be fueled by the funds buying and the specs running for cover.  We did it too today as really, today should not have happened if we are going to correct the next few days.. 

Nothing has changed fundamentally, it still could be an intermediate top but the resistance point of $3.61 needs to hold near term.  We recommend no futures while this boy tries to decide its next direction.  As we said the other day, it will top hard and the volatility is going to be crazy!!!  Just like today.

Near term, I am going to double my money by folding it and putting it in my pocket.  We need to let this one settle down a bit but longer term, we remain very friendly and cash sellers holding for next year should just relax and enjoy the action.

Wheat  - Big rally today with the corn.  We traded to our target of $4.70 early this morning and then bounced 18 cents off of that level.  We could easily rally here near term but look for corn to drag it around.  What a market!!!  The down trend is still in place.

Beans - Beans up as well but they had to fight for it.  Nothing new from us.  This market may find a bunch of selling by farmers over the next couple of days. 

Rice - Nothing here at all.  We remain long but are very aware that we could break from this level near term. 

Cattle - Holding and waiting for more news.

Natural Gas - Market still sideways...we could be in a $1.50 trading range for a while.

Dow - Holding under 12,200 looking for news.  Breaks seem to be supported but rallies fizzle.  Maybe we stay here for a bit but I think it still has another push higher. 

Monday November 13th -  

Corn - Market finished down a tad after being up over 6 cents in the night trade.  This does not bode well near term as the market is not finding buying at higher levels and the market looks to be ready to test the support zone of $3.35 to $3.39.   We remain short futures here and are also long the $3.60 Puts which I will roll down to $3.40 or $3.50 Puts.  I expect a bounce here at some point but still think odds favor an intermediate top is in place.  The COT report shows a huge long position by the funds and if the get serious about lightening up, we could break much further.  I'm not sure they will get that serious but producers should be careful.  This is not the best time to be long.   Longer term...yes... near term, No!!!

Wheat  - Nothing new...we talked about wheat heading toward $4.70 last week several times and it's just a few cents away from that support zone.  $4.60 may be in site as well.  We have done everything right in this one and will stay where we are.  No buy backs yet.

Beans - The COT report is bearish here and sets up a major correction in the next few weeks.  Talk about a house of cards...  For us, we remain short here and think the market has a good 30 to 40 cents down in it near term. 

Rice - Market moved a little higher today but off it's highs.  Buying dried up so don't be surprised to see a little dip here to see where the buyers re-enter. We remain long 50% of our target base position.

Cattle - Nothing new as cattle prices in the cash market remain under the gun.  I see a bounce here near term but it could come from a couple of bucks lower. 

Natural Gas - Back up today after being down Friday.  The sideways action continues.

Dow - While I am long a little in the Dow futures, I am not real comfortable.  I see a break under the 12,100 level but still, the numbers say one more push maybe likely as there is a lot of money on the sidelines that needs to be put in play and if you are going to do that here, the big chips are the obvious play.  

Friday November 10th -   CHECK ---  RECOMMENDATION PAGE

Corn - Read our comments for Wednesday, the day before the USDA report.  We cautioned in our comments here and in beans that tit looked like a top was about to be made.  This time, it looks for real and we sold it perfectly on the turn down yesterday.  The market continued correction today setting up this weeks as an intermediate top.  One that could hold for 6 to 10 weeks. 

The longs in the market will build a defense in the next couple of days and some sucker buyers will take the bait.  We may actually sell a rally near here near term on a hedge (futures only).  The basis has fallen 10 cents so we can see a little of the pressure on the futures market as well.  Still, the basis is average to high for this time of year. 

We are short the market and have sold 100% of anything we need to for the 4th quarter.  This break could last another 15 to 20 cents down.  Next week, early support comes in at $3.39 to $3.35.  I will lift much of our short spec position once we get into that window especially if it happens early in the week with no up days before it happens.  PB tonight is at 68% after hanging right at 80% for two weeks. 

Wheat  - We are still unwinding the bull move in wheat.  We sold everything we had to for the fourth quarter with an average about 40 cents higher than where it is.  Look for wheat to test $4.70 but we are not thinking the market can do anything more then unwind the bull market and that could leave it around the $4.60 to $4.70 level.  Then we enter the weather market for winter wheat.  

Beans - Still holding pretty well as it seems beans can not give up more than the corn does.  That may not last much longer as there are a lot of beans to come to the market.  Look at the basis level for beans and you will see they are very low for this time of year.  That means sellers may opt to sell futures and not cash until the basis improves.  That could happen about 30 to 40 cents lower than where we are right now.  We remain bearish here and short using "Puts" as we said Wednesday.

Rice - Market up 14 cents today and on cue.  Still interesting to me that rice is up when grains are down.  I think it is a coincidence but we may have seen some funds want spreads on with corn and something else so why not rice???  I don't know but in any event, we recommended getting to 50% long.  If you didn't get there today don't worry, I think you have time.   

Cattle - Even with corn down today, cattle moved lower on cash news.  Not substantially lower but enough to keep the buyers hand to mouth.  We will sell a rally here. 

Natural Gas - Back down today as the sideways action continues.

Dow - Working out some issues but there is no sign of a major break here.  We still see one more push at least to new highs but wouldn't marry the bull side.

Thursday November 9th - 

Corn - As we feared, the market reacted to a bullish report negatively as we finish down 8 cents in corn.  It certainly looks like what we suggested this morning as a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" setup.  The market was called up as much as 8 cents before the open but the first sign of a very tired market is when it doesn't open like it is expected too on news.  It sure didn't as it opened only 2 cents higher and then went down on the day.  It was able to stay around unchanged but every rally was met with selling and it really looked like the direction with the least resistance, was down.  That bore itself out late in the day as the market moved lower.   

Tomorrow will be interesting.  If we see follow through selling, it could get nasty in here as the buying dries up...on the other hand, if we close higher and by that I mean erases today's sell off, then the market is signaling a move to even higher levels.  I doubt that happens as the market is so overbought its scary. 

We bought more 360 puts today when the market when down on the day and the spec account sold futures at the same time.  We will not let either trade become a loser.  We remain on the bear side over the next couple of weeks as the corn crop has just been harvested and there is a lot of corn out there right now.  The shortage is next summer not right now.  Producers have not sold mush so if they start selling over the next two days, we could easily back off 10 to 15 cents.  That is the risk near term. 

Wheat  - As I said last night, we are headed to $4.70.  We are sold on all wheat for the 4th quarter and will have buy back recommendations when the timing seems right. 

Beans - This market is holding pretty well that's for sure.   Still the number today was huge and it does not indicate beans at or even near $7.00 in November of 2006.  Next year maybe but this market could get in trouble real fast.  We are 100% sold on anything we want to sell this year.

Rice - Market was lower as USDA raised carryover (what else is new).  Rice acres at this price are going to decline which is why I doubt we remain at this level.  We want to get to 50% long at this level.  That is a good place to be for now and we'll hold those positions longer term...that is unless we get another GMO problem.

Cattle - Up a bit today and if corn sells off tomorrow, we may see some profit taking from the shorts here in this account.  A rally back to 89.00 will be where we start looking to lay off more cattle risk for the 1st quarter.

Natural Gas - While higher today it was was off the highs.  As we pointed out last week, the market appears to be sideways in here.  By the way, sideways is followed by higher prices usually but this time could be the exception.  It is too early to know. 

Dow - The market is in a corrective mode but I doubt it breaks a heck of a lot further near term.  Longer term yes but my gosh, the new House doesn't even get in until January and then we are months from them screwing up profits if they even do!!!  We still see it higher near term and are buying this break.

Wednesday November 8th - WE WILL HAVE USDA REPORT HERE TOMORROW @ 8AM

Corn - Up another 6 cents today but at one time it was up 16 cents and the close...is on the low of the day.  You guessed it...here we go again as the market is setup for topping action again.  I sound bearish I know and I'm not but the reality is...the market shouldn't be here this time of year and the risk is HUGE!!!

Tomorrow's USDA report will tell us a lot as the numbers are expected to come in at 10.85 billion bushels on production which is a drop of 63 million bushels...a whole 63 million bushels.  If I ever seen a buy the rumor sell the fact, it right here.   We bought the $3.60 December Put today on the rally and sit with a nice little profit tonight.  I can't believe I bought this in front of the report but the computer said to do it and we did it.  I may be kicking myself in the morning as again, this market is not like anything we have seen just as I said months ago.  The problem is the amount of selling that will happen here once we blow off the top.  Producers are waiting for the top to sell and again, today looks like a top.  I know, I know, I've said it before and I still do not want to sell anything we have in storage, I am just bearish near term.  Tomorrow will be interesting.

Wheat  - A huge move higher today with wheat up 21 cents at the high; however, it didn't end there.  Up only 8 cents and just 3 off the lows.  Boy oh Boy...we see an increase in supply tomorrow so again, wheat has its site set on the $4.70 level near term.

Beans - Up 10 cents as the world wants beans...they are going to get them.  No sign of a top here yet but it has to be close.  We are buying Puts here in the morning in the Spec account.  Why???  Totally based on 12 days in a row with the market over 80% in the PB indicator.  The most I have ever ...EVER seen it is 15 days. 

Rice - I expect USDA to increase the supply tomorrow...why???  Because the are the USDA!!!  We will look at the numbers and the market reaction but again, we want to buy breaks here. 

Cattle - Does cattle know something corn traders don't???  Could be.  Cattle may have put in a chart formation low today.  We will give it some time and good bounce should be sold in any event.

Natural Gas - A massive key reversal up yesterday followed by a very quiet day today.  Nothing to read into this chart.  We see it sideways for sometime.

Dow - The Dems won the house but I doubt they will win the Senate.  It makes for good news copy but the odds don't favor either of the two elections that are so close, for either of them to go to the Democrats and even if they did, the Vice president is the tie breaks.  Look for Dow to resume uptrend.

Tuesday November 7th - 

Corn - Up 8 cents today with just one more shopping day until WASDE!!!  Thursday morning's USDA report is expected to show a dramatic tightening of supplies for corn world wide.  Today's market action indicates the reluctance of sellers to participate just yet and many of the articles out regarding cash corn indicates producers are not turning loose anything just yet.  Will that be the case after the report?  I guess we will all find out together.

We started telling you to be careful on this report last week.  It could be a buy the rumor sell the fact report that finally brings in the sellers; however, the chart is not near as negative as it was last week and we have some indications that the market could rally to $3.65 before it runs into heavy resistance.  The USDA report could allow for that to happen if the numbers are bullish enough.  In any event, nothing has changed, we are holding everything we can from last year and anything we HAD to sell before January 1st has already been sold.  If today was a pointer day, we should be higher tomorrow and the report could indeed be the final piece before a good correction begins.     

Wheat  - The rally the last few days didn't find traction today even with corn higher.  If corn runs into trouble after the USDA report, wheat could test the $4.70 level fairly soon.  We have sold all 4th quarter sales needed at much higher levels and are looking for a place to buy back.  Nothing here yet!!!

Beans - Just over 5 cents higher today as beans continue to try and buy back some acres.  It is now assumed that beans have lost 6 million acres to corn.  That would bring the carryover number back under 400 million bushels by my work which supports a price...no where near $7.00.  Frankly, with Brazil off to a good start, beans are over priced here and only getting more so everyday; however, I have been know to be wrong a few times, so we will again let the market tell us when it is time to sell anything for the 1st quarter, we have sold everything in the fourth.

Rice - Nothing happening here except the sucking sound of acres from any areas that can grow beans or corn.   I still see the market higher but there are a lot of uncertainties out there and this weeks USDA report may not be kind to rice.  We are still in the mind to buy breaks.

Cattle - Nothing new here as we had a mixed day.  Looks like the market is still looking at feed prices and reeling under the outlook of extremely high prices for feed supplies in 2007.  More cattle will come to the market as the price moves higher and while the next few months may see a nice supply of beef, longer term, we may see feed lots less full then they have been the last 3 to 5 years.  If the USDA report puts in a short term top for corn, cattle may get a bounce but it is one to sell.    

Natural Gas - A massive key reversal up today as the market again fixes current lows as major support.  We have been saying this market is probably sideways and today's action would indicate that to be the case.  Look for market to hang in the $7.00 to $8.50 range for a while.

Dow - The election is over and the winners are about to be announced.  The Dow has been waiting and with the election over, we should see the market return to the major fundamentals which right now show things good but riding along the cliff.  No change in our outlook...12,200 is just 50 points away.

Monday November 6th - 

Corn - A very quiet day today as the market prepares for Thursday's S&D report from the USDA.  I'm not sure we are going to stay that way but the report Thursday is expected to cut the ending stocks inventory for corn.  There is no new news or technical information to be drawn from today.  I will say that the low at $3.39 today could be come important if it holds into the report.

Wheat  - News that China has an area of drought sparked the market today.  We closed higher but not substantially so.  We will continue to monitor the market for a place to buy back some calls or futures but the chart is still bearish and could need to stay in this area to a little lower to consolidate the bull move that just occurred.  No changes in our advice as I don't see a huge move one way or the other from here until maybe after Christmas.

Beans - Market worked a bit higher on news that Corn may have pulled over 6 million acres out of beans for 2007.  It is way too early to get on that train.  We'll stay where we are looking for a chance to sell some of the 2007 crop much later in the season.

Rice - Market consolidated today and stayed pretty quiet.  No news to really set the market one way or the other.  We want to buy a break from here if we can get it. 

Cattle - Still going lower; however, near term, computer signals are warning of a bounce in the next couple of days.    $83 remains our target and to be exact it is in the $83.20 to $83.85 window.  Corn prices are high enough to affect cattle going on feed bit the cattle that were already there, have to come to market and some are coming faster than first planned.  I look for more yards to stop the high feed bills as fast as they can which can really flood the market with beef near term.

Natural Gas - Warmer then expected weather has the market looking at less gas usage and more storage problems.  The longer term forecasts are warm for the major heating areas so the market is going to test lows and could ramp down into a lower trading range. 

Dow - After some election jitters, the market came to grips with the facts today and worked higher.  I expect the house to change over to the Democrats but the Senate may stay republican just because the Vic-President casts the deciding vote.  It is going to be close....   I still see 12,200 on the Dow. 

Friday November 3rd -  .... After yesterday...Ho-Hum!!!

General Comment -    No Island Reversals yet.  All the markets seem to be held up now by the USDA report next Thursday.  The countdown starts with three trading days left until the report.  I will say again, a bull market like this TOPS HARD, that means it will go back and forth in a range getting everyone bullish then bearish and then bullish and on and on it goes.  I call it volatility and we saw a good amount of it today.  Typical of a market making a top.

Corn - The bulls dodged the first bullet IF (and it remains a big IF) this is an intermediate top.  The markets setup single day Island Reversals yesterday but after a lower open, the market closed the gap by 10:30 and then set-in sideways for the duration.  We did push higher and make a new high on the day late in the session but profit taking and position squaring in front of the weekend took over and the market closed lower.  We have no changes in what we wrote last night, cash sellers of fourth quarter corn should be 100% sold now.  Basis is starting to weaken as cash supplies start to show up.  Again, there is going to be a shortage this coming July of corn...but it is not here on November 3rd.  We have the whole crop plus the 2 billion bushel carry over from last year.  So...a shortage yes, but right now we have about 13 billion bushels of corn to come on to the market.  Risk abounds right here...look for the funds to be long even more in the COT report tonight.

We did cover our short position in the spec account today since the market closed the gap and became range bound mid-day.  Even so, a nice little profit.  Nothing changes for us, we'll sell on further sell signals but cash sales should be complete off of the December 2006 corn futures.

Wheat  - We are 100% sold here as well and still recommend that for producers using December 2006 futures or need 4th quarter sales.  One of the calls I got today said I wasn't the only marketing site saying sell it.  I'm sure that is true as there are a lot of people who can read the signs.  The only thing concerning me is the long term bullishness which suggests new highs later especially if we start to see a dry area for the winter wheat crop which is certainly possible given current weather forecasts.  Even so, our long term storage plan will benefit from a move higher and besides that, we have sold so much of the 4th quarter near the highs and have 30 to 40 cents profit in them.  So,we will continue to watch for a place to buy back but it will be with options.  

Beans - We sold 100% of cash 4th quarter sales yesterday.  If you sold cash and bought futures weeks ago, then you should not have sold anything yesterday as again, that was 4th quarter sales only.  IF you did, fine, don't rush back in.  This market is going to be very crazy near term but beans will not get a big lift from the USDA report and Brazil appears to be planting more beans than expected.  The fundamentals do not support that high of a move. 

Rice - Still more downside pre4ssure today as the market takes out a big portion of the whole limit up move on Wednesday.  Nothing new from us, buy the break but be patient. 

Cattle - Lower today as the realization of higher feed prices grips the industry and cash cattle are expected to flood the market near term to get down the daily cost of feeding.  Inventory levels have been going up so there is a lot of cash meat t come to market and some lots may pull the trigger much sooner than normal.  Look for this flush of cash cattle on the market over the next two weeks.

Natural Gas - Nothing new here...we think sideways for now.  PB is at 50%...that is balanced

Dow - Election jitters will continue but I think the worst of the election fears is now over. 

Thursday November 2nd -  .... Is this exciting or what!!!

General Comment -    Today's action had no reversals but the market also put in "Open to Close lower days which sets up an Island reversal tomorrow for Corn and Soybeans.  Today may have been the top!!!

Corn - Remember my comments last night, if not they are right below here so just scroll down.  I told you about the Titanic and this market was acting just like that!!!  Well, tomorrow may be the day where the plunge really starts.  No, not a big one and not to the bottom of the sea but certainly one in which the funds get nervous, and the market does a flush of recent longs.  If you are long, then I would set my alarm for 5 AM (CST) and I would get up and see if the night session is lower.  If it's not lower then just say, "that DANG DENNIS" and go back to bed...if it IS...I would put in an order right there and then to sell any long futures you have.  We are setup for an Island reversal here and a sell off may find no buyers if the funds come to take profits. 

Here are the major factors to think about...we hit our target of $3.47 on the open with a powerful gap.  We went limit up only to find selling at the close and we closed under the target price of $3.47 and below the open.  We closed on the lows and making new lows which indicates we did not cut off the sellers.  Finally, the selling in the last 15 minutes came in waves.  I haven't seen that type of selling in a while, which could indicate a major drop in buying interest.  Finally, the bull spreading dried up today after Dec '06 went over Dec '07 by about 4 cents.  This could be commercials indicating they have the near term supply and well give it up now to own it later.  Not bullish!!!!

Could I be wrong???  You bet ya, but where is the risk???  I have said a hundred times and have to remind myself, the plateau change which has been underway for 10 months, will not be like anything we have ever seen or experienced.  We all can agree that is what is going on now.  I mean come on, the market has rallies $1.00 on a decrease in carryover of 200 million bushels or 1.8 percent change in supply.  A 50% increase in price on a 1.8% decrease in supply????   Of course that is not the only reason the market is going up as common sense tells us.  The market is making a major change in price structure and will continue for another 12 months or even longer as it gets anchored; however, a 50% change is major and with the funds long 20% of the total crop...there is some selling ahead and I for one want to be ahead of those guys.        

We bought the Dec $3.50 put today for 12 cents in the Spec account, willing to risk about 6 cents on being short right here and right now.  We also pulled the trigger on what ever a producer hadn't sold in the fourth quarter ($3.50) but must sell.  We sold nothing of next years corn crop and nothing of what we could store into the spring.  We just want the fourth quarter sold...period. 

One final note...I sold cash corn today for $4.05 picked up my elevator.  Yes, it was corn I had to sell in this quarter but just think about it.  This is 10 year highs...TEN YEAR HIGHS and $4.05 IN NOVEMBER!!!! 

Wheat  - Sold the last of our 4th quarter wheat inventory today as well ($5.02).  Wheat still looks like a major top and if corn rolls over, we might actually see wheat hold a little better near term on an unwinding of Corn/Wheat ratio spreads.  DO NOT BE LONG CORN SHORT WHEAT right now. 

Beans - Well, we sold everything in beans today...We will have catch up sales recommendations tomorrow but this was too much for us to handle.  The market didn't hold at all after the strong open so we sold anything we had to sell in this quarter.  If you didn't, it's OK you should be able to catch up tomorrow and we will have the "how" in the setup tomorrow morning. 

Rice - Correction day today after the big run yesterday.  We want to buy a break here so we are on close watch near term.  The other grains could have a short term impact on rice but longer term, the market is under priced compared to what it will take to hold acres for 2007. 

Cattle - Lower today but cattle closed before the last 15 minute sell off in corn.  We could firm up here near term if cattle feed prices are finished going higher. 

Natural Gas - Nothing new here...we think sideways for now..

Dow - Election jitters will continue.

Wednesday November 1st -  ....WOW!!!  Was this close or what!!!!

General Comment -  OK...First things first, if you followed our advice you sold nothing in wheat or corn today...nothing, but boy did you get close.  In the beans, you probably did not sell anything because the dip was so fast I didn't even get it sold and I was watching it.  So, unless someone tells me other wise in beans, I assume nothing was sold today anywhere but boy was it close.  This has happened so many times recently where we get just a couple of cents away from a sell signal only for the market to reverse.  One of these days, the market is going to run through our trade signal and then turn like it did today BUT this was not the day.

Today reminds me of the movie "Titanic" where the ship appears to be sinking only to break apart and the tail section goes straight up...just before the plunge into the icy deep.  First of all, I am not suggesting there is a "plunge" coming.  You all know I am and have been a raging bull; however, I am looking for a correction and when I see a gap like we have in December corn with a target of $3.47 and when you see the huge open interest in the market held by funds, AND you have the public starting to buy in on the corn bull market...we are getting close to a good correction.  Frankly I want to see corn hit that target first because it makes the chart so much more bullish longer term.  In general, this market has to be watched but only if you HAVE to sell anything in the next 60 days.  Otherwise, enjoy your Fall.

Corn - Market put in a dramatic trend-day higher today where the sellers ran for cover.  We finished right on the high which indicates the buyers are not through.  We are going to take the target of $3.47 very seriously as I think most technical traders will as well and because of that, I will probably start to sell the market just BEFORE we get to that level.  For now, do nothing and lets see if we can't get more out of this tomorrow.   

Wheat  - Now the weak sister of the bunch.  Only up 6 cents with corn, beans and rice moving higher to sharply higher.  We will get more on the books here soon as I see a dip toward the $4.50 to $4.60 level ahead.  That may be too low, but then again, I expect the markets to go too low...just like rice did.

Beans - We said last night we wanted to sell beans and this morning we told you how.  The market pushed into new lows for less than a minute before rallying with the corn.  If you DID sell some or even the 50% mentioned last night level, you'll be fine but again, I doubt anyone did as fast as it happened.  We will continue to watch this one as beans become more and more vulnerable to South America's upcoming harvest and our own end of year sales.  Now if Brazil starts to have a drought...look out.

Rice - We bought 20% yesterday and WOW!!!  Should have bought 100%...but then again, "you shouldn't should on yourself."  Rumor's are out that Iraq bought rice and that sales tomorrow might be higher than they have been since the GMO issue hit.  Also, we may hear that the GMO strain of rice is approved for human consumption but that is a foregone conclusion and should not surprise the market.  Frankly, I think it is technical as the market corrected 50% and found little selling at those levels and then with the other grains moving higher, had to bounce.  Look for some consolidation unless there is some surprising news to support the bull move. 

Cattle - Market slow today but looking on with glazed over eyes at the cost of feed sky rocketing.  It is only going to get worse which could mean its time to do some heavy culling of cattle in the field.  We want to see the numbers here in the COF report for November but any increase over October will push me to a very cautious position in cash cattle.   We are bearish futures but again, would sell rallies.

Natural Gas - We said it last night and will say it again, it looks like the market is setting in for a sideways trading range.  This is supported but the uncertainty of the winter weather and the demand for gas over the next 4 months.  We see no reason to own it and would look for a rally to sell it right now; however, we see one nice rally possible in the next few months before the market rolls over and heads for what could be significant lows in Feb. or March.

Dow - Election jitters???  You bet.  With the Democrats salivating at getting the congress back, just long enough to prove they have no plan on anything, the market is nervous that economic reform will come at the expense of corporate profits.  Probably not a fair rap for the Dems but then again if some of those guys have their way...you bet it will be bad for business.  I just doubt there will be that many "nuts" elected.  Oh and by the way, the Reps have a few of those guys too.