Friday November 30th-

Corn – Up 2 today.  After the close the COT report showed little change in the long position of the funds.  Nothing new for us say as I can see it either way near term.  A break back in the beans remains possible and if crude is headed to test $80.00, it may be hard for corn to rally much near term.  Also remember the huge long position by the funds and the fact some of those positions will get closed before the end of the year. 

Wheat – Wild market today finishing up 14 in new crop and down 1/4 in old crop.  There are a lot of traders talking about all time highs in wheat again this next year as wheat supplies remain tight.  Can't rule that out but as acreage becomes more apparent and the crop condition is better known, I can see pressure on the market on this rally.  For now we remain short $10.00 March calls and hope we get a rally toward that level to do some selling. 

Beans – The hammer head formation we talked about last night worked like a charm as the market closed down 15 cents.  Funds are selling here and that could last for a while.  For now we want to be short the calls and that is it. 

Rice – Down 7 at the close today after rallying during the day and not holding it.  The market moved under $13.20 in the March but didn't close there.  After the markets today the COT report shows the funds LONG (correcting the "short" originally written) over 8,100 contracts as of Tuesday night and that is dangerous.  I can see a rally toward $13.40 but if it starts to fail, I will pull the trigger on more sales.  Today, I did sell the market in some of the rice we have left to sell in the cash but not all of it.  I can get there fast though if things start to head south. 

Natural Gas – More downside action.  January is now under the $.35 level we talked about as a possible target near term.  The market has bounced a little but with the weak energy's and the weather forecasts looking mild, more downside is possible.

Cattle – Quiet day today as the market looks at the rest of the markets. 

Dow – Up 60 points today after the speech last night hints at aggressive rate cuts.  I am still on the doubt it side but way in the minority.  The bond market is calling for it no doubt but there is a chance the Fed says lets wait and see if the bond market doesn't turn back with the dollar starting to rice. 

Cotton – Bad day here as cotton loses 119 points.  We may see the March cotton head for 60 now. 

Gold - Down $13.70 cents and this market looks weak for sure.  Why should the grains hold when Gold can't???  Good question, email in those answers will ya?  The whole commodities rally is at stake here.

Thursday November 29th-  READ THE LET'S TALK IN THE BEANS....

Corn – Down 4 and under pressure from the collapse in crude.  The oil market exploded $4.00 higher on the pipeline explosion and then collapsed all the way back down which shows the large amount of selling in the market.  That put enough pressure on corn to set it up for q correction as well.  PB is at 73% so it is still in bullish setup but this is the time to think about selling some premium.  Tomorrow we may do just that by selling February or March Calls.

Wheat – Up 10 to up 15 all on Australia's shutting down exports for a few days to take inventory.  How smart is that??  I love those guys.  They can come up with some creative ways to get more for their wheat.  In general, this is a market looking to be sold but we will wait a little longer.  When the Aussie's come out and say they will export up to the 10 million they had already said they would, look out below.

Beans – Hammer head down today which sets up a move lower.  Yesterday's low must hold or we have made a short term top in the market.

Let's Talk:   When you look at the long positions held by the funds there is one thing else you should be looking at.  You ready for this???  It is the Calendar.  Yes, the Calendar...think about it.  If the funds have huge profits in the grains, what will they do before the end of the year?  They will book them.  That means they MUST sell out to get the profit in their books and into their year end commission checks.  We are on record longs in the rice and beans and getting there in the corn as well.   I will give it room but market analysis says the players will soon get a little nervous about year end numbers.    

Rice – Up 3 with a hook reversal up.  Problem is that it is a week one.  A move under $13.20 in March signals a larger correction is underway.  PB is down to 69% which indicates the move has a 70% chance of being over.  I will sell a bounce in the next few days and take off all remaining long positions as well. 

Natural Gas – Gas has broken down just as we expected.  The inventory is more than enough to offset weather patters which right now are warm.  We will own the market at some point but for now...let it move lower as we are short in the cash for sure. 

Cattle – We look to be testing near term support at 94 and I give it a 30% chance of holding.  The grains look suspect and that makes me think cattle can pull back as well.   A move toward 91 cents in fats is what I am looking for. 

Dow – Up 300 points yesterday and up 17 now as the market believes we are going to get a rate cut for sure.  What happens if we don't???  You don't want to know.  I am still on the side that says inflation is boiling and the Fed knows it.  It will be hard for them to cut the rate in December. 

Cotton – Still under 60 cents but flirting with it.  I still do not want to own it...but the time is approaching. 

Gold - Back under $800 an ounce.  Look at the dollar...we are up to 75.58 and the Euro is now down to 1.475...  All of this is bearish the grains IF the trend has rolled over as we have been saying for weeks it is in the process of doing. 

Thursday November 29th- Morning report including Wednesday's Action

NOTE***    I will be back in the office today about noon.  I am typing this in Miami on Thursday morning and I apologize for not being able to update last night from Puerto Rico.  I will return to normal updates as of tonight.

General Comment -  We have not seen a real wash out in these heavily fund owned markets.  That indicates the current trends remain in tact.  Let them finish out and stay patient.  Of all the markets, rice is the one on the bubble and the closest to a hard break.

Corn – Corn is up 1 cent overnight and looking to challenge its recent high.  I like this market longer term and near term, I am turning more bullish for a short term run higher.  Even so, my main concept is holding cash corn, and owning small positions of corn near term.

Wheat – Continuing its move higher.  After limit up yesterday, we are 10 higher overnight...gap anyone???  No reason to sell anything right here...I know you are tired of it but patience is going to pay in this market.

Beans – Same as corn. We may be ready to test recent highs and there is no reason to be selling here.

Rice – Down a little overnight after being down 14 yesterday.  PB dropped under 80% and we are approaching support that must hold.  The funds are huge longs here and if they start coming out a major down draft is going to happen so be patient.  Outside market may support today.

Dow –   Up 331 as the bottom pickers come out in force.  Don't buy the first rally and let's see what happens near term.

Tuesday November 27th-

General Comment -  Patience is again the thing I want to stress.  Yes we have had reversals and follow through but there is a chance we could rally back near term test the highs in these markets.  Let's let the market prove it is ready to roll over.

Corn – Down 2 cents with crude down over $3.00.  What is wrong with that picture??  Give it room and let it tell us it's time to sell something.

Wheat – Up 15 and looking to tst the recent highs.  I am not selling wheat here at all.  Again, give it room.

Beans – Down 12 but no reversal from yesterday makes me nervous about selling it at right now.  Same as with everything else...let it trade.

Rice – We had follow through selling in rice and I understand the market jumped to $6.00 premiums in Texas.  Again, volume was light today so we have not even seen the beginning of the funds dumping and that is the break I am wanting to sell.

Dow –   Up 215.  Bottom picking or the low???  Don't know but this market is still in trouble.

Monday November 26th-

General Comment -  With the reversals today we have once again received notice of possible changes in direction of he grain markets.  We need confirmation so for now I am not pushing the button. WATCH THIS CAREFULLY TOMORROW...

Corn – The market reversed today and is setup to correct; however, it is nor near as overbought as rice and beans.  Here in the night session we are down 1 1/2 but I will give it more room and see how it trades tomorrow and maybe for the next few days.

Wheat – Down 11 today and off another 6 cents here tonight.  Here too, give it some room.

Beans – Up 3 cents but way off the highs and it is down 7 here tonight.  Watch it closely but for now we are not selling it.

Rice – Down 9 with a huge hook reversal down today with major commercial selling.  Do not be selling just yet as we need more proof of a top and that we are coming out of the expansion phase.  So far that ha not happened.  If it is down real hard tomorrow, then we have a top.

Dow –   Down 237 today.  Not sure where it is headed right now.

Friday November 23rd- 

General Comment -  Corn 7 higher, rice 29 higher (not a mistake), beans 15 higher and wheat 21 higher.  Rice has a PB rate of 87% as it blows off this final bull run.  The grains were higher on fair volume today so next week is setup as an extreme volatile week in the market.   We could top the rice anytime now as the expansion has run 5 days and is in extreme levels where the basis is a negative $2.00.  Even so, there is no sign of a top yet and I am not selling this one short until I get that signal.  The big problem in rice is once that the selling starts, who in heck is going to buy it.  We remain out and that is the best place.  It might not feel like it right now, but it will, I promise, it WILL.

Please note that this week I will be in the Dominican Republic.  I should have the ability to update this page but I am not sure I can update the Audio link on this site.  Look for comments late in the day until Thursday when I get back to Houston late in the morning. 

Wednesday November 21st- 

General Comment -  Markets were higher on Wednesday in front of holiday.  Wheat was limit up bid.  Nothing has changed in anything so I will be very sort on the market. During thanksgiving, markets tend to trade higher and that is happening again.  Sellers are absent with the low volume.  In any event, I see the current trends holding into next week.  Wheat is vulnerable but again, volume will be light.

Tuesday November 20th- 

General Comment -  The economic outlook from the Fed was bleaker than expected and the US dollar collapsed this morning on the expected slow down.  That caused Oil to explode in price this morning as did Gold.  It will be hard to keep the grains down if the Dollar keeps on trucking.  $1.50 against the Euro is very much in site right now but the grains will hold firm until the selling spree is over.  When that happens, the grains will be way over priced for this point in time.   Given all that is going on, beginning tomorrow, we will add the Dollar to our comments list.

Corn – Higher but down off the highs again.  We took out yesterday's high which setup a massive reversal but the market didn't hold so again, the $3.77 level in December is major support. 

Wheat – Up 17 on strong buying due to crop conditions and the US Dollar collapse today.  We see it higher as we have been saying but again, this is a near term outlook and we will want to short this bounce unless crop conditions stay as they are through December.  If that happen, heaven help us!!!

Beans –  Yesterday's reversal was almost completely taken out today but a huge hook reversal up on the Electronic chart.  WOW!!!  With the holiday anything can happen and for now, we are just not going to trade it. 

Rice – Down 8 today but again, very light volume.  $12.80 is major support and needs to hold for the funds to stay where they are.  Near term outside markets will have a major impact but the funds hold the key over the next two weeks.

Natural Gas – Down 31 on warm weather.  January could slip under $7.50 unless something changes in the forecasts. 

Cattle – Up 100 points and who knows why.  We are out still thinking it is sideways. 

Dow – Down 218 yesterday and up 52 today.  The market started higher thinking the news was good enough to trigger lower interest rates but the Fed is not cracking.  I doubt we get a change and if the US economy slows enough (recession) then the whole world economy will slow.  BIG TIME!!! 

Cotton – Up 3 and Ho Hum!!!

Gold - UP $26.80 in an incredible move higher today based on the economic picture in the US.  Until the Dollar rallies, this market is going to be very hard to break.

Monday November 19th- 

Corn – Today's action resulted in a hook reversal down in corn but the volume was extremely light.  Tomorrow $3.73 in December must hold or we will see a washout coming in the corn.  It is a short day on Wednesday so the market action tomorrow will probably be the last day for anything of note this week.  This week is normally a higher week based on history so the action the next couple of days may tend to not support the reversal today...then again, this is not the normal market.  

Wheat – Up 7 and holding support.  It may be hard this week for wheat to climb a lot higher but a gradual up turn does look likely near term.  Longer-term I want to sell it. 

Beans – A massive Key reversal down today where the high and low were out side of Friday's range and the close was under Friday's close.  The issue here is the volume just as we stated in corn.  The difference is that the volume was pretty good in beans with March's volume the fourth highest for the contract.  In January however it was 14th highest for the contract which is significant given the fact that January has just taken over the lead from the November contract 14 trading days ago. 

Even with all of that, tomorrow's action needs to see beans hold support at $10.62 which is the buy-in point based on our indicators.  Price support is not until $10.50 and the long term support is the trend-line at $10.20.  With the huge fund position, this could get crazy if they head for the exits. 

Rice – Read last Friday's comments.  Nothing has changed.  The market continues in expansion and may for another 5 to 10 days; however, this one can end at any point.  Volume was very light today so it may take the other markets giving up big time to break rice near term. 

Natural Gas – Down 21 as the cold weather scare is subdued by a warmer outlook.  This back and forth will continue near term. 

Cattle – Down 5.  The Cattle report was a big nothing so the market will watch outside markets and internal demand for beef near term for direction. 

Dow – Down 218 with a close under 13,000.  We see recession and have been predicting it for some time.  Longer term we want to own the Dow but a correction over the next several months is likely. 

Cotton – Down 80 points.  The low today was 60.00 even which is what we said would be tested.  Now we need a sign that things have changed.  It may be hard to get that near-term. 

Gold - Down $9.00.  We want to own this break but for now, look for gold to trend lower.  The dollar needs to turn to really let the air out of this market and test $730. 

Friday November 16th- 

Corn – Market failed to rally high enough to keep from generating a sell signal and possibly setup fund liquidation next week.  Some techs will be slow to sell it though as the market closed near its high today and not that far from the level that would negate the sell signal.  This doesn't happen very often as some major selling could come in if we take out today's low.  In that regard, today was an inside day and up 5 cents so next Monday will be an interesting day to say the least.   

Wheat – Up 13 yesterday and down 15 today.  Market has volatility and resistance in both directions.  Today's high is resistance with $7.40 as major support.  I still see a bounce but want to sell it. 

Beans – A hook reversal down today in January.  $10.70 is support for this leg so if we get some good selling early next week we could test the current uptrend line which is 60 cents lower than the current level.  Even so, there is no sell signal yet.

Rice – Expansion has begun and the questions are why, and how high??  The why fundamentally is unknown.  Sales this morning were good but no great.  PB is 82% tonight and could stay above 80% for up to 10 days.  One of our systems now points to $13.30 as the target in January.  That is our best guess but it could end at any point.  When this one comes out of the 80% level, things will turn quickly. 

Now the question of why??  The answer is simple...fund buying and a lot of it.  On October 11th, the non-commercial long position was 2, 765...as of tonight's report which is as of Tuesday's close, their position is long 7,562.  That is up 10% from the week earlier.   We have 5,000 contracts net bought by funds in 4 weeks.  FOUR WEEKS!!!!  Let's look at the fundamentals.  The S&D report dropped carry over by 300,000 cwts and exports have been good but the fact is, the Spring buyers have been afraid of the higher prices and have bought early.  Selling will be lower in the spring then normal.  Cash has not changed and so this run is without support from actual cash prices.  Acres are expected to be lower so owners are holding on but still, the buyers are not ready to move higher.  May rice closed at $13.56 which is a premium of $7.00 while the cash is at $5.00 and that assumes no basis premium in Texas.  So what concerns me is the result of this move higher.  If we are buying acres, fine but that is in new crop September which has rallied 52 cents since November 1st.  January has rallied 81 cents.  So understand, old crop has rallied more than new crop.  How about a bear spread next week shorting January and buying September???   It is something we will be taking a look at for sure.  This position by the funds scares me because when they start to exit, the cash price is where support is....that is $1.40 under the current price and I can argue it is more like $1.70 under the current futures price.

Have I scared you???  Good...BE CAREFUL and do not get greedy!!!!

Natural Gas – Up 30 with concern for colder weather.  Yesterday's decline in inventory was less than expected but at least it is going in the right direction.  For now we think the market will rock sideways with all the supply.  We need colder than normal weather to really take this one higher and with our feelings that crude could drop back into the mid 80's over the next several weeks, the upside potential is there but not crazily so...at least not right now.  . 

Cattle – Down 7 and sideways in front of the cattle-on-feed report this afternoon.  I'll come back and report those numbers later.

Dow – Down 30 as I type this with an hour to go.  Hard to break the Dow with crude $1.40 higher. 

Cotton – Down 75 points.  I still see it testing $60.00 which isn't that far away.  In fact, we are there with today's low at $60.70.  Still ,could go lower and no sign of a upturn. 

Gold - Down $1.40 and still trading.  Looks like a top to me. 

Thursday November 15th- 

Corn – Up 8 yesterday and down 8 today...what is up with this???  Fact is, Gold has made a top and crude is doing the same.  The dollar has not confirmed a low but if the shorts head for the exits it is going to be a sharp correction higher.   That will put more pressure on corn. 

Wheat – We said last night...  "Look for upside movement over the next several days as the market tests the down trend."   Up 13 today and near the highs of the session.  I can more up here as the shorts cover near term.  Crop conditions have deteriorated so we could see some support from that.  On this bounce we will sell old crop and buy new crop but not now.   I did buy in the March $10.00 calls today and will sell March $9.00 calls at some point...but not right here. 

Beans – Unchanged and still strong.  The market is going with the idea that bean acres will not be up as much as previous thought,.  I think the market is DEAD WRONG!!!  Even so, the market is right when it comes to pricing perceived fundamentals and those fundamentals are bullish right now.  Funds are long at historic levels and while I see a break at some point, right now there is no reason to be short.  I am long futures and short calls right now but think I am on a train headed for the gorge at 120 mph.  It is all in timing of when to jump...

Rice – Up 6 and still looking like it is headed for expansion into new highs.  Long futures and short calls or our completely is our suggestion.  We have been warning now for two weeks that this market is near a correction but so far no sign of one to hit on.  I think we will trade over $12.92 and then test $13.05 to $13.15 in January.   I also think you will be able to buy this market well below where it closed tonight. 

Natural Gas – Down 13 with the weather not looking so cold right now. 

Cattle – Down 25 and we are about to shift to February to watch.  I still see this sideways at this level waiting for more news. 

Dow – Down 120 and looking sick.  If we make new lows for this leg, it is going to get ugly. 

Cotton – Down 145.  And some ask why I don't like cotton.  Just look at the price action.  $60.00 is going to get tested. 

Gold - Up 15.30 yesterday as the suckers started buying...Down $26.00 today.  We have a top!!!  This may start the ball rolling in the greenback and great maybe the rise near term for the dollar.  Tonight (overnight) will be interesting.  

Wednesday November 14th- 

Corn – Up 8 today trying to keep up with beans.  The market DID NOT confirm a top today so again we are in watching mode.  Near term we could test $4.00 in December or we could turn and challenge the lows of the last few days.  Thing is, corn is not going to decide its own fate as it will be the outside markets and beans. 

Wheat – Reversal up today and higher tonight in the night session.  It looks like wheat is making a short term low.  Look for upside movement over the ext several days as the market tests the down trend. 

Beans – Up 21 today and pushing everything higher with it.  Market is down 2 tonight but even so the market looks like it could run unless the outsides are indeed topping. 

Rice – Up 10 and looking more and more like it is going to enter expansion of the bull move which will be a drive for a major top.  Watch it carefully the next couple of days but nothing has changed for us.  We still see it close to a top but maybe not quiet there.  That is a big MAYBE!!! 

Natural Gas – Down 10 today.  Nothing new on conditions.  We can see it either way depending on the weather. 

Cattle – Quiet and up a little.  No change in our ideas of it being sideways. 

Dow – Down 83 and looking to test support. 

Cotton – Nothing to talk about here either. 

Gold - Up 15.30 as the market prepares to drive to find major resistance.  This could last another 30 dollars or so and still be the top for now. 

Tuesday November 13th- 

Corn – Down 4 to 5 with a report from Informa indicating acreage will still be 88 million acres in 2008.  Want to bet they are long beans???   Anyway, it is way too early to be betting on acreage yet the market took that today and went with it.  Not a good sign.  Last night I said if Dec Corn didn't trade back to the low made on the day we traded to highest price, we have a problem and are setup for a down trend to form over the next several days.  The low on the highest day was $3.82 1/4 and today's high was $3.82.  The problem with technical trading is that what is a 1/4 cent difference.  For me it is close enough.  Let's see if we trade above $3.82 tomorrow and then make some decisions.  Nothing has changed for us as we believe longer term the market is going higher but a break near term is likely.  We are short about 10% of our base in Calls but will short the market and sell Puts if we see a place on a bounce to do some protection.  This will be a small position trade as we like the market longer term. 

Wheat – Another hard day down as Wheat looses 13 to 14 cents.  Our short calls are working like a champ and still have lot of value in those $10.00 calls at over 8 cents on an option that expires in February.  What chance does March wheat have of going over $10.00 by the Middle of February???  Well, that is what makes the world go round.  I doubt much chance at all but someone is still paying 8 cents for that option. 

With all that said, wheat maybe coming into an area that it finds support in the old crop for a while.  New crop needs to hold $6.50 or we will have some major selling in the new crop of wheat.  We have sold some but get ready, we may sell a bunch if the market starts to swoon in the new crop. 

Beans – Up 10 on reports from Informa that acres will not be as high as first thought next year.  I'm guessing the old Sparks group is long beans.  It is too early to rest on any numbers but if they are right, beans will be higher longer term.  All this does is fuel the acreage war fire a little more.  No sign of a top here yet but be careful. 

Rice – Up 17 at one time and finishing up 8 on light volume.  Only 260 contracts traded today in the January and most of that was done by 10:45 this morning.  Commercial selling took the market off the highs.  As I said last night, this one could still go into expansion phase but I am not expecting it.  Tomorrow if we take out $11.90 in January, we will send the PB number into expansion territory and that could last several days but I do not see the fundamental picture out there to bring it about.  $13.04 is major chart resistance so the market maybe trying to test that level but near term, it may not be able to get through.  We will own a break but near term, it looks suspect to me but I have been wrong before. 

Again, remember the main issue here is that the cash market is way too low given the futures.  Something has to give. 

Natural Gas – Down 5 after being higher most of the day.  Weather forecasts are bullish but that may be in the market now.  Inventory levels are historic and rallies are suspect until an extended cold forecast is out there. 

Cattle – Up 55 with the Dow sharply higher.  Still sideways to me. 

Dow – Big move higher as the Dow explodes 319 points higher.  We obviously were too short in the market and today's action alleviated that.  Rule number one...never buy the first bounce.   Give it some room. 

Cotton – Up 8 and still looking weak near term. 

Gold - Down $4.10 and looking weak near term. 

Monday November 12th- 

General Comment :   I think we have been pretty much on target with our warnings of possible tops coming in Gold, Crude, and Rice.  Whether those tops turn into longer term tops is yet unknown.  We are not pressing the markets lower from here.  That is why we took a more cautious approach by selling Calls.  For now that is still what we are looking at and holding in most markets.  They have been profitable and we may roll them into short futures and short Puts in some of the markets where we want buy backs but for the most part, we just want to be short calls and very conservative on short positions.   

Corn – Down almost 8 cents today as the Gold and the Crude bull run ran into a brick wall.  Is it over for the outside market?? 

Let's Talk:  The USDA report last week showed inventory down to 1.87 billion bushels.  It is very important to note that this is still 700 million more than thought 6 to 8 months ago.  Still the drive in corn to these highs has been credited to a shortage of corn next year.  Fact is, this run has had some of the acreage battle in it no doubt but I would suggest the last 30 cents of this move higher has been credited to the value of the dollar.  As I said during last Friday's Webinar, the dollar is King right now.  No not in value but in direction of the agricultural markets.  So these comments go for all markets we talk about.  If the dollar has bottomed, then the corn has topped for a while.  Longer term it will be higher but there is no shortage of corn right here and a long way to before we run out even with 5 million acres less next year.

The point to make tonight is simple, ONE DAY DOES NOT CHANGE A TREND.   It can top the market and indicate that a trend change is occurring but the actual change in trend occurs over several days.  In basic terms, a down trend is a period of time where highs are lower and lows are lower.  While an uptrend is where we have higher highs and higher lows.  So based on that, it will take several days to confirm that the trend has changed.  Since last Wednesday, the highs of the day in December corn have been lower everyday and the lows have been lower since Thursday.  The low last Wednesday was 3.82 and today's close was below that at $3.79.  IF and it is a big IF, but IF tomorrow, we never see the market trade over Wednesday's low of $3.82, then we have the first nail in the bull move.  Second, if we trade below $3.74 then we will have traded below the low of last Tuesday's push and that will be nail number two.  But with all of that said, a rally in December corn that fails short of  $3.90 will setup a Kondratieff top which is a major indicator of a top. While I am bullish longer term, a correction here wouldn't hurt my feelings even if it does make me a bit nervous. 

All in all, we can see a bounce from here but we can't follow the fundamentals of corn only.  The dollar will send the message to corn and it will take a few days to confirm a change in direction, if one has happened in the dollar.  It will confirm itself with lower lows and lower highs. 

Wheat – Down 1 after trading higher.  Who knows here.  I can see a nice little pop but with all that is going on it may be hard for it to hold.  We remain short calls and will sell more on a nice rally.

Beans – Down 7 to 9 today but was off more than that earlier.  $10.30 has done a good job of supporting the beans so it will take a move under that level to bring about major selling.  I would like to buy a break and for now will wait for one to be a buyer.  Longer term I still like it but near term could easily go either way. 

Rice – Down 12 today and below the support zone of $12.68 but just by 2 cents.  $12.60 was defended today by the bulls and $12.58 is the technical support zone on the charts.  Read my "Let's Talk" in the corn comments as that pretty well tells the story.  Oh and BTW, the PB level is down to 76% which now sets up the market to expand higher or sell off to consolidate.  $12.58 really needs to hold or we could see $12.30 easily.

One more thing...the cash market is way too low given the futures.  Something has to give. 

Natural Gas – Up 3 cents.  Cold weather coming in from the Pacific could help support near term. 

Cattle – Down 40 and quiet.  The talk of recession may put more of a downward tilt on this market. 

Dow – Down 233 points Friday and down 55 today.  We remain bearish here.  The market closed under 13,000 but still way over the December 31st close of 12,463.  Can we finish the year lower??  You bet we can.  Buyers are getting shelled everyday here and with the VIX (Volatility Index on Stock Options) making new highs, it doesn't look good for the market settling down anytime soon. 

Cotton – Down 152 and now in a bearish stance.  The USDA report was bearish and it took over the weekend for the cotton traders to wake up. 

Gold - Down $27.00 today with the dollar SHARPLY HIGHER.  We cautioned you about this one and while we talked about a possible expansion market, it looks like that is NOT going to happen.  If we get a bounce near term, we will see the quality of it and determine if we want to own gold or be a short.  Right now...looks like a short on any bounce. 

Sunday Night November 11th- 

Corn – The market moved lower on Friday after a bullish Supply and Demand report from the USDA.  As I said in the quick comments on Friday evening, we look for follow through on Monday as a sign of a direction shift, IF there is one occurring.  As of this writing at 8PM on Sunday night, the corn market is down 2.  Gold is down $9.00 and the Euro is down as well with crude off over $1.00.  In general, Friday's low is our target support at $3.80 1/2.  If that level gives way it could get pretty nasty pretty fast.  We will be selling some calls in the spec account but hedgers, we are going to look for a break as a buying opportunity.  $3.60 is a possible level of support on  hard break. 

Wheat – The wheat market roared back on Friday and actually put in a reversal day to the upside; however, here on Sunday night the market is lower by 6 in the old and 8 in the new.  Even so, this market has been hit very hard and is down $2.00 from its high so there is a chance for a bounce and a good one at that.  We will not press the bear side but we will remain short $9.00 calls and March $10.00 calls.  We have made a nice profit on these positions and may use that in selling futures if we can get to a place to do it. 

Beans – The number was neutral and the market sold off with the corn early only to turn and run higher.  Here on Sunday night we are down only 2 cents so there is nothing to change our mind that this one can still work higher for a while; however, the outside markets are going in the opposite direction of their recent trends so there could be some selling here as well. 

Rice – Rice finished down 6 on Friday and is down 8 here on Sunday night.  Support is 1 cent away and after that, $12.60 and then $12.30.  I have said my piece here.  This market looks very vulnerable to a break.  Yes longer term it looks OK but how big of a break can we see near term?  That is what scares me.  Probably bigger than anyone that is bullish right here thinks.  I am out on everything coming in to tomorrow's trade.  I will probably short it if the market rolls over.

Natural Gas – Up 17 cents Friday but its down 10 cents here at 8 PM on Sunday night.  We will give it some room with the rest of the outside markets which do not look so hot tonight. 

Cattle – Unchanged and watching the rest of the markets. 

Dow – Down 233 points and overnight off 8 whole points.  The Dow is sitting with a PB of 27% which for the Dow is very, very low.  A nice bounce is possible in the next few days; however, if the Dollar starts to bounce, the Dow will have some problems based on higher interest rates.  A complex market and trading features to say the least. 

Cotton – Nothing on Friday.  We remain do nothing in cotton. 

Gold - Gold lost $3.00 on Friday and is down $9.00 tonight.  PB is now under 80% at 79.7; however, we need a close under 80 to balance the books.  Then what???  Well here is the rub.  The market can still go into expansion phase now that it has dropped back under 80%.  We could have 7 to 10 more days of ups here if the market starts to go into expansion.  I hope that doesn't happen as it would mean a major top is coming and it would also indicate things are very bad for our own economy.  Right now we need to give it some room but as we stated several days ago a correction was near and it is officially underway even if it lasts only one or two days. 

Friday November 9th- 

General Comment     I am in Florida for a weekend conference so look for the regular update to this page Sunday night.  We will be watching wheat and corn Monday for follow through action.  Today's report was bullish corn but corn bolted lower from the opening and today's low is now major support.  Wheat's report was bearish but old crop reversed from sharply lower to end higher on the day.  Other than that, our comments the past two days hold.

Thursday November 8th- 

General Comment     It was a crazy day today with Dow recovering from a 200 point loss to close down 33.  The dollar index closed higher while the Euro also closed higher.  Strange situation there.  Tonight's comments are short and sweet as we will do our update of the market at tomorrow's Webinar. 

Corn – Corn worked back higher today holding yesterday's lows.  As a result we head into tomorrows S&D report looking for bullish numbers and a weaker dollar. 

Wheat – Big selling today sent market 25 lower.  A quick look at options, especially the $10.00 March.  While the March futures is down 19 cents, the $10.00 call went.......UP 1/4 cent.  How crazy is crazy??? 

Beans – Up 2 3/4's in a quiet market before tomorrow's numbers.

Rice – Sharp day higher as traders bet on a bullish S&D report tomorrow.  While we are getting warning signs, there is no sign of a top. 

Natural Gas – Up 10 cents with crude down 63 cents.  Inventory grew but hit estimates almost exactly so now weather becomes the big factor.

Cattle – Up 52 and still sideways.

Dow – Today is a good example of why I said...."Be afraid...BE VERY AFRAID!!!!"    Down 200 points at one time, the Dow came roaring back; however, the NASDAQ was still of 53 points which is almost 2%.  It was is money was flowing from the Technical Stocks to the Large Cap stocks.   Tomorrow might be interesting.

Cotton – Down 38.  No comment as I don't see a reason to trade it. 

Gold - With PB at 84% the day count is now 3.  When it hits 10 odds increase for a correction.  Read last nights comments. 

Wednesday November 7th-    

Corn – Corn reversed today but only mildly so as corn finished down 1 1/2.  Today's low must hold tomorrow or we may see a good correction.  $3.80 is major support for December.  All eyes will shift to the report for Friday morning as well and to be honest, that is not a positive picture right now. 

Wheat – Bear spreading taking new crop higher and old crop lower.  Nothing new for me.  I remain short calls looking for a good place to short futures and sell Puts but I don't see it yet.

Beans – Down 5 in a reversal formation as well but not a lot of selling in this one today so tomorrow we will be watching beans to see if they test today's low.  That is support near term. 

Rice – Key reversal down today and it is lower overnight as well.  We need follow through to the downside to confirm it but I think this one is going correct based on the current chart as well as fundamentals.  Friday's report will be watched closely too for signs of a market too high given the short term fundamentals. 

Natural Gas – Down 23 and still looking for support.  Near term, I doubt it finds any until the Dec is below $7.40.

Cattle – Down 87 and it could be lower tomorrow with the Dow down so hard today. 

Dow – Here is what I wrote last night.... "Up 117 points on ideas that the Fed must cut rates.  WHO IS SMOKING WHAT???  At some point this tug of war is going to end and guys it will not end well." 

Please read all the comments there because today was a warning shot across the bow or should I say Dow.  We will start lower tomorrow no doubt with more bad news form Morgan Stanley and guys it is not over yet.  As I said last night...Be afraid...BE VERY AFRAID!!!!

Cotton – Down 10.  No comment as I don't see a reason to trade it. 

Gold - Read last night.  Gold finished up $10.10 and tonight PB is at 84%.  As I have said the last two nights, there is no sign of a top but it is coming and great will be the fall when it hits.  Even the GLD Exchange Traded Fund sits on an 85% PB tonight.  We are probing for a top and in fact, today's high could be it. 

Again let me say, I am not trading it because trying to pick a top can be bad for your trading account.  Let it turn and then trade it.  Look at the Wheat market.  When it turned we had several days to get short some high priced Calls and we have rode that market for a huge profit over the past 4 weeks.  The same ride is coming here in Gold, in crude, and for a short time, the grains as well. 

Tuesday November 6th-    

General Comment  - If you are a partial site reader and read only one or two commodity comments, tonight is one of those nights you might want to read a few more.  All readers should read the comments on the Dow and Gold tonight.  Be prepared to act if you are in the markets because THINGS ARE GOING TO CHANGE.

Corn – Strong day today as corn finishes 11 cents higher on fund and speculative buying.  Inflation buying was everywhere today and corn was certainly no exception.  The economic basis for this is the price of crude, gold and the dollar hitting new lows again.  Until the outside markets change direction, corn should hold; however, this rally cannot and again I say CANNOT sustain itself.  PB is only 70% on corn but keep reading as this indicator has begun flashing in rice, crude and oil.  We will not try an pick a top but we are looking for any action which would allow us to sell Corn Calls.  Patience. 

Wheat – Up 12 in old crop and up 15 in new crop.  Bear spreading is a warning sign that the old crop rally will be short here.  We were hoping for a longer bounce but it may be short lived.  Another 20 cents is possible if the other grains can keep headed higher. 

Beans – Huge day up today as beans rally 23 1/2 cents.  This too is tied to outside markets and with PB only 60% there is more room to the upside.  Watch the outside markets, when the top, beans will correct hard.  

Rice – Another strong day.  Read last nights comments as we stand by them.  We said another 30 cents could tip us into the sell mode and today we finished 19 higher.  We have a major system warning us of a correction or at least a sideways tilt for several days.  This system is saying to sell Calls here and we have done that today selling $13.00 calls for 16 cents.  That puts a cap on the rally profit but something has to give near term.  PB is at 81% tonight which is a warning that a high is near.  We would not be buying any more rice right here but on a break, you bet. 

In the cash market in Texas, we have heard the same thing most of you have regarding new bids in the $6.00 premium range ($12.50 basis CBOT); however, we don't recommend selling to the buyer due to bad shipping requirements and a tough grading standard.   Along with that the basis isn't so hot tonight either.

Natural Gas – Down 14 and heading into a supply report on Thursday.  Crude oil up $2.72 today and Natural Gas down???  What is wrong with this picture??

Cattle – Down 10 in quiet range today. 

Dow – Up 117 points on ideas that the Fed must cut rates.  WHO IS SMOKING WHAT???  At some point this tug of war is going to end and guys it will not end well.  The current battle over inflation is being wagged in the grains, energy markets, and metals as the dollar collapses.  We cannot see the Fed cut rates and inflation roll on.  That is not going to happen so this rubber band is stretching out pretty far and when it goes, which might be several days or even weeks, the sound of it popping will affect every market we watch here at Progressive Futures.  I MEAN EVERY ONE!!!  Be careful out there and be afraid, be very afraid. 

Cotton – Up 1.18 but still sideways.  Inflation can even affect cotton...who would have thought???

Gold - Read last night.  Gold finished up $12.60 and tonight PB is at 82%.  As I said last night, there is no sign of a top but it is coming and great will be the fall when it hits.  It could be this week or next or even the week following but all signs point to a top coming and soon. 

I am not trading it because trying to pick a top can be bad for your trading account.  Let it turn and then trade it.  Look at the Wheat market.  When it turned we had several days to get short some high priced Calls and we have rode that market for a huge profit over the past 4 weeks.  The same ride is coming here in Gold, in crude, and for a short time, the grains as well. 

Monday November 5th-

Corn – Down 1 1/2 and in the middle of the range for the day.  Crude was lower today and that put some selling in the market today.  Near term we can see it either way but are hoping for a break to do some more buying.  Harvest is 82% complete so the selling from harvest is about done.  Breaks need to be bought.

Wheat – No change from us on this one.  We see the market lower over the next few months but a short term rally is always possible.  We are short $9.00 Dec calls and short $10.00 Mar calls.  On a good rally , we might roll some of those lower.

Beans – Up 4 and still in need of buying acres but a correction is possible here just like the corn.  Outside markets may tell the direction near term. 

Rice – Market rallied sharply from the opening and then sold off down 13 but finished up 9 so on the day it was another positive session.  We have indicators starting to turn red on buying but they are not high enough for us to take profits just yet.  30 cents higher may tip the scale into sell mode but we will be patient. 

Natural Gas – Down 42 cents today under heavy selling.  We have corrected 80 cents in two days as the inventory is big and the weather is not that bad yet.  A test of $7.40 is possible in the next week or so unless something changes on the weather map.

Cattle – Up 107 today.  We still see it sideways. 

Dow – Down 51 after being 150 points lower.  If the dollar bottoms, things are gong to change but there is still no sign of that.  I am in cash expecting some more announcements, like we said over a month ago, from other banks writing down losses.  

Cotton – Down 31 and holding sideways. 

Gold - Finished up 2.50 when all is said and done but the electronic was up only .80 and is down in after hours trading.  PB is at 77% so I see some tough times for gold coming but no sign of a top yet. 

Friday November 2nd-

Corn – Down 7 yesterday but up 8 on Friday.  Market is still trying to decide direction.  I think a setback remains possible especially if the outside markets reverse and I think they are about to do just that.  This week will be interesting. 

Wheat – I still see it lower in the old crop and new crop as well.  We remain short calls.

Beans – Coming back like the corn and finishing up 11.  Even so, it looks like a volatility love and that could indicate a short tem top.  I t could take a week or so to confirm so just be careful. 

Rice – Good buying today with the other grains.  Cash is not following and once again futures is a dollar over cash.  Futures may not be able to hold this rally or the cash market is getting ready to move higher. 

Natural Gas – Down 23.  This one has run so much lately that pull back is very possible.  Weather forecasts will be important this next week .

Cattle – Down 82 Thursday, up 62 Friday as back and forth we go.  Sideway to a lower near term. 

Dow – Up 27 after being down over 100.  This week is critical to the Dow. 

Cotton – Down 34 and then up 57, just like all the other markets on this page.  The outside markets will dictate. 

Gold - Up 14.80 as we the dollar makes new lows.  The volatility says a high is near; however, that only means traders who are long should think about taking profits.  No one should be short gold right here.  Let it turn first. 

Thursday November 1st-

GENERAL COMMENT -  Today was a huge day in the outside markets.  The conditions that have allowed the Crude Oil and Gold to be so strong may have reversed technically today.  It will take several days maybe even a couple of weeks to confirm but today's action maybe a major sign that things are changing with the Dollar, Crude Oil and Gold.  The impact on grains will be significant near term IF it is a top in the Crude, Gold and the a bottom in the dollar. 

Corn – Down 7 today as the outside markets reversed today just as we cautioned could happen this morning.  Again, I didn't predict it but when you have these conditions it was obvious that is could happen and yes I did trade for it.  What a day!!!   This market need to find support so further selling remains possible near term.  Longer term, nothing has changed yet.

Wheat – Touched limit down and finished off 29 cents.  We remain short calls and they are working like a charm. 

Beans – Down 45 at one time, beans finished off 19.  More downside is possible as the markets re-arrange value based on changes in the outside markets. 

Rice – Continued buying under pinned the market today even with what was happening in the outside markets.  We will see if that can hold tomorrow but this market needs to make new highs or we will set back into the range of the last two months. 

Natural Gas – Very strong on cold weather and shorts running for the exits.  We are seeing major short positions roll out as winter comes our way.  If crude breaks hard into next week, we could see the market move back down here.

Cattle – Down 82 today as the market rolled lower on outside markets.  A break to 92 remains possible near term especially if the outside markets hold today's reversal action. 

Dow – Down 370 points.  As I said last night, look at today's close before getting excited about the Fed Cut.  Has anything changed???  You bet it has.  The Fed said they were through with cuts for liquidity purposes.  Now they have inflation to worry about and that statement is exactly what we warned you could turn the major market dynamics.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Dow bounce back today as there are enough talking heads out there to push people into buying this break but I will not be one of them. 

Cotton – Down 34 and watching the action of everything else. 

Gold - Down $.20 but after being higher is broke hard.  If we take out today's low, it could get really nasty in this one.