Friday October 29th - Yes, I know I wrote there wouldn't be one but things changed!!!

Corn - Look at our comments last night and then look at the market today breaking down.  This is going to give us a chance to sell some puts.  PB is at 39% and I would like below 33% before selling any options, so we will give it a chance to settle off.  Today's action just confirms we are going sideways for awhile.

Soybeans - Beans performed the best today with with the market only down a couple of cents.  January PB is setting at 46%.  Next week we may see one pressure but time is not on the side of the bears here. 

Wheat -  The break today sets up a key reversal down and the market may need to find its major support level before taking out today's highs.  I was disappointed with the break but I don't see it lasting very long.  The fact is this market has been in a down trend for so long, wheat traders don't remember what its like to write on the buy side of the trading ticket.  A close back over $3.20 will move us higher.  Tonight's PB rating is 60% so it still points to the market under the control of the buyers. 

Rice - PB is up to 39% tonight but the market isn't telling us much.  World prices continue to firm but the selling of US rice out the export gate is mainly rough rice not milled so margins must not be that great for millers right now.  I think long term we will see some higher prices but we have a lot of supplies to work through and we may not have much movement here until after the first of the year. 

From last nights update...

What do I think???  Well, interestingly enough, I hear the bulls who read my site say I'm a bear while the bears are saying I'm a bull.  Actually, I'm a nothing!!!  I can see it either way.  I thought I said that before!!!  Like 20 times before.  Anyway, if we drop another 20 cents in January, things are going to get messy.  Premiums can go to $.75 by Christmas or they could go to $2.25.  My only action has been based on a basis which is too high in Texas.  Why own cash when you can own the board and have 80% of your money in and be paying CBOT storage (priced in the futures) costs.  We've sold all our cash and now wait on the board to say, "Buy me!!!"

Cattle - Today's break is something I think we needed.  We said weeks ago that if we broke down through 86.20 we should head for 83.  I wasn't expecting it all in one day be that is about what we got.  PB is 23% in Dec cattle and that means we should bounce off of today's lows, but we have done that already as well.  So now wheat?  I'm going to wait and see what Monday brings but I don't see a major break here.  We could sell off to 80 or so but I don't see it much below that level near term.

Crude Oil - Read our comments the last two nights.  This is working just as we predicted.  PB is at 46% and I would expect it to cross back over 50 and maybe get back to 60% on this sucker surge.  We want the market to rally close to the recent highs

Thursday October 28th -

Corn - Corn is trying to hold up here.  PB is at 45% and selling by farmers is obviously slowing down.  We want one more nice break here to start selling some puts like we did in wheat.  Demand is going to be huge and longer term we want to own the market but not right now.  Look for basis levels to start improving soon.

Soybeans - January PB remains at 48% which has the market balanced.  Next week we may see one more bit of pressure but time is not on the side of the bears here.  We will take a better look at it on Sunday in our weekly update.

Wheat -  We are doing real well here, long the Wheat/Corn spread and short the $3.10 and $3.00 calls.  In fact we are back in the black from our bad trade two months ago.  I look for the market to run toward the $3.30 level and then pause.  In fact, we may sell the $3.30 call at 10 cents if we get a chance in the next week.  Notice I said MAY.  Things will have to line up right for me to do that.  For instance, we can take off the long side of the wheat/corn spread by selling the call and letting it close in the money pocketing the difference.  We will wait and see.

Rice - There is still a lot of bulls out there and who knows they may be right but it could be the bears too.  Today's action favors the bears as we couldn't rally the market; however, delivery on the November contract starts tomorrow so don't draw any permanent conclusion based on today's action.  

What do I think???  Well, interestingly enough, I hear the bulls who read my site say I'm a bear while the bears are saying I'm a bull.  Actually, I'm a nothing!!!  I can see it either way.  I thought I said that before!!!  Like 20 times before.  Anyway, if we drop another 20 cents in January, things are going to get messy.  Premiums can go to $.75 by Christmas or they could go to $2.25.  My only action has been based on a basis that is way too high in Texas.  Why own cash when you can own the board and have 80% of your money in and be paying CBOT storage (priced in the futures) costs.  We've sold all our cash and now wait on the board to say, "Buy me!!!"

Crude Oil - Last nights comments...."Today's action was a massive key reversal down and sets up a weekly key reversal down.  This is probably THE top.  I would expect the market to sell off hard and then rally back hard making a massive top."    OK...Part one completed as we sold off hard today confirming a top.  Now we will wait for the rally to sell calls.

Natural Gas - Good follow through today early had the weak longs on the run but the strong guns are not moving just yet.  That would bode well for a rally in the next few days and a possible "sucker surge" back up.  I want to sell calls on that type of rally.  With the action today, I look for a bounce.

Wednesday October 27th -

Corn - Nothing here today.  Market will be dull ahead as we await the final field being harvested.  Rallies will be short but we could rally about 10 cents from here over the next month.

Soybeans - January PB fell below 50% today so we may be ready to put in the final leg down on beans.  Yes, we were stopped out but we took a lot out of this market too and now we want to wait for a reason to own.  That might not be here for quite a while.

Wheat -  Nice rally here today as we challenge the resistance at $2.21. Look for that level to be taken out in the next few sessions.    PB remains at 62% indicating the move higher has begun.  The last two nights I have said....The pump is primed for a move to $3.30.

Rice - WMP was up 7 cents but the futures couldn't hold early gains and we closed unchanged and right in the middle of the range.  It looks sideways to me right now.

Crude Oil - Today's action was a massive key reversal down and sets up a weekly key reversal down.  This is probably THE top.  I would expect the market to sell off hard and then rally back hard making a massive top.

Natural Gas - OK...the next two trading days will be critical.  Notice we have been talking about an expansion phase for Natural Gas.  That remains a possibility but the action today was a massive key reversal down and was the signal we have been waiting for.  This tells me we will not expand the market but we will top the market hard.  Look for some real volatility here as we top.  Also, remember we said to look for a top here right before the US election.  That may be exactly what is happening right now. 

I am selling Calls on the next rally which might be tomorrow or in the next few days.  This is a dangerous trade and I will not let the market make new highs with me short a call.  I'm looking at the 10.20 call so I'm not going to give them much.  This is going to be a wild ride over the next few days.

DOW -  I expected this rally if crude could correct and that is happening.  This market has rallied nicely but my guess is it will turn back down in the next few days.  Long-term the market has too much to deal with and should trade toward the 9500 level before the end of the year.

Tuesday October 26th -

Corn - Market rallied at the end today and setup a test of $2.08.  The major buy signal is up at $2.15.  PB is at 45%.  We are not trading here yet.

Soybeans - Closed lower and in the middle of the range with PB at 54%.  The COT shows still more short covering possible.  We could challenge trend line but its 30 cents higher right now.

Wheat -  We still need wheat to close over $3.21 to set up the move higher.  We were weak all day until the last minute when the market pushed higher in March and traded unchanged in December after being lower all day.  That could bring in more buying tomorrow so I expect an up day on Wednesday.  PB remains at 59%.  As I said last night....The pump is primed for a move to $3.30.

Rice - PB dropped back to 45% today but the market closed unchanged.  WMP was up 7 cents as Asian prices remain firm.  That could lower premiums in the days ahead.  I still have no opinion near term except that cash rice and futures will eventually come together.  Which is going to move is the question.

Natural Gas - Read last nights comments and you will be able to tell what I am about to say.  PB is up to 78% and set to run right back over 80% as early as tomorrow.  Odds now favor an expansion of the bull move for the next several days.  I am looking for a reversal on the chart and right now, I just don't have one.  Be careful here and please...DON'T JUMP THE GUN OR YOU MAY END UP JUMPING FORM SOMETHING HIGHER....

Monday October 25th -

Corn - Up following soybeans and short covering.  As we pointed out in our weekly comments, the COT is indicating some potential for short covering as head into the end of harvest.  Tonight's progress report will be important in that regard as we expect most hedging pressure to end with about 70% harvested for the year.  PB is up to 42% so there is room in either direction but I expect more of a sideway trade coming up. 

Soybeans - We were stopped out of our last shorts today at $5.44.  The rally today need more confirmation which might come tomorrow or Wednesday but it is the small specs who are in trouble here if the market rallies more.  The COT shows the funds have already come out of many of their shorts.

Wheat -  We still need wheat to close over $3.21 to set up the move higher.  Today's action was very welcome given we are short the $3.00 (sold more today) and the $3.10 puts.  A close over $3.21 should bring out the short covering from the funds who put more shorts on just last week.  It looks like the Specs are already starting to go long wheat and short corn.  PB dropped below 50% last week, but as of tonight is back up to 59%.  The pump is primed for a move to $3.30.

Rice - PB dropped back to 46% as the market was weaker all day.  One has to wonder why rice couldn't hold its head up with the rest of the grain floor higher.  There remains no real news to shape the direction of the market and the charts are not giving any help either.  I can see it both ways so I'm out waiting for more news.  Cash prices seem o be holding so again, why is the cash market in the South so much higher than the board.  Don't know, but my guess is we may stay this way at least for a couple of weeks.

Cattle - At 86.20, I'm selling some calls.  That is the best plan I can come up with.  With 39 days left until they expire, the 89 call looks like the one but I'm going to wait for the signal first before doing anything.

Natural Gas - If you read our weekly comments, we mentioned that the PB had finally gotten over 80% which sets up a sell signal or at least a topping signal.  The sell off today is suspect as it was not a reversal.  That doesn't mean we haven't topped the market but it does mean that the market didn't give us a normal signal of a top.  In fact, once a market moves over 80% for a couple of days and then drops right back under 80%, we are setup to expand the market higher.  So, if in the next few days it rallies again and PB goes over 80%, it will expand the market higher.  This one needs to be watched and we will give it plenty of room.  The options have 29 days left in them so they will bleed time value over the next few days.  That will make it hard to sell the calls like we had hoped if there is a topping signal.  Once again, it is going to be interesting.

Friday October 22nd -

General Comment -  Sorry for no update last night, but it was a long day.  As for today, the market put in a quiet but lower day with low volume and steady selling in corn and wheat.  Beans were higher.  Nothing has changed for us except the wheat buy signal has failed as PB is now at 47%.  This usually happens in a sideways market and that is what looks like is underway right bow.  We will have full comments in our weekend report.  I'll publish that on Sunday evening.  The Dow looks like it is starting another leg down making new lows today and closing below 9800.

Wednesday October 20th -

Corn - Not much here today.  No news is bad news in a down trend so when the market couldn't bring in buyers early this morning, the market sold off and finished in a ho-hum fashion.  Long term I like corn, near-term it could test the lows.  The next few days will be interesting.  We remain out but would like to sell some puts on a break.

Soybeans - The market has risen to a place that it should find resistance.  Today's action confirmed we may have the lows in but I expect at least a test of them before this is over.  We will exit positions at $5.44 unless we see another reason to cover the last of our shorts.

Wheat -  We still need wheat to close over $3.21 to set up the move higher.  Today's action wasn't very good but I'm not that concerned.  We tried to get over the main resistance point but found only sellers at the higher level and then the market sold off hitting some stops.  We should correct to $3.09 in the December so when we hit the $3.10 level, that will be when we start looking at the long wheat/ short corn spread.  Today's close puts the spread at $1.07 and I'm hoping for $1.04.  We remain short the $3.00 and $3.10 puts.

Rice - PB is up now 48%.  There is no new news to talk about an the trade today was lackluster at best but at least it wasn't a down day.  The problem here is I can talk both sides of the market.  I don't have any idea right now where we are going.  The world prices remain firm and the US fundamentals are bearish so it is a true tug-of-war right now.  Long term I like the bulls side better but short term, we may see more weakness.  I'm out and staying that way until I have a better picture. 

Cattle - A move under 86.50 is bad news here after today's big sell off.  The drop was instigated by sell stops when it was reported that some processing plants are not slaughtering because margins are too low.  That would mean we have run into a price top in the boxed beef markets and will have to work through some backed up supply.  This could be the start of the correction to 83 cents in the December contract we talked about several weeks back but the correction never occurred. 

Crude Oil - Well I'm not going out on a limb but the market run up today may have been a sucker surge.  We may know by Friday's close.  The strength index has topped and today the market drove back up through the highs but did not turn the index back up.  This is what we call divergence and it occurs 80% of the time at the top of a market.  That doesn't mean this is an 80% probability of a top.  It means that the conditions are present and the market is ripe for a major top and it will be very violent.

If you read our weekly comments, we have been saying the last two weeks that we expected the top to coincide around the election.  We are under two weeks and my guess remains, we will top before election day and it might be a week in front of it.  Its going to be fun to watch.  Unless your trading it of course.  If you're doing that, you are a braver trader than I am.  GOOD LUCK!!!!

Tuesday October 19th -

Corn - This was a good day for the bull camp as the market rallied after the sell off yesterday.  This could indicate the action yesterday was corrective and the current trend, though short term, is up.  May be the correct thing to say is that the current trend is short covering.  PB is still below 40% so there is more room for a correction near term to the up-side.

Soybeans - The close today is over the 21 day moving average and PB is back over 40%.  We could be seeing the bottom put in place.  We will need to watch the market tomorrow and if we close higher, we may come out of the last 25% short position we have on.  This is a great situation being short at $6.56 and trying to get the last nickel we can out of the trade.  The long term buy signal is up at $5.60 but we will continue to hold our upper stop level at $5.44 for tomorrow just in case the market gets crazy.

Wheat -  Nice day today but no cigar.  We need wheat to close over $3.21 to set up a move toward $3.30.  I know you will say, what a stupid statement, of course it has to go over $3.21 to get to $3.30!!!  Well, when I say this, I mean a close over $3.21 will mean a move to $3.30 with 75% odds.  Get the point.  We remain short puts at $3.00 and $3.10 which should both go to zero.  I'm looking to buy the spread on wheat/corn but not yet.

Rice - PB is up to 47%.  News that Thailand may have some rice damage due to the early stoppage of the monsoon may yield some support near term.  We will have to wait and see how the market trades.  It will tell us if there is a problem there or not.   Tomorrow is going to be a key day.  If we can close over $7.10, we will have a buy signal in November.  Do we take it?  Well, let's see if and how we get there and then decide.  A close back under $6.85 is bearish.

Monday October 18th -

General Comments - Today was the day I expected last Friday.  The markets pulled back on very little news but with anticipation of crop conditions today being better.  As I will say a few times, this market isn't going anywhere and will probably get right down boring in several of them.

Soybeans - We are going to cover the last 25% of our base position at $4.99.  It will take a sharply higher move to get a buy signal and I don't expect one for a while.  Remember, this is a profit taking buy order.  DO NOT GO LONG!!!

Wheat -  Same comments as last Thursday...We are long wheat and short corn with short puts in wheat and short calls in corn.  We will put on futures positions soon in the bull wheat/corn spread.  I like the options right now as we go through the final death throws of the wheat bear market. 

I want to buy the spread but not yet.  Today's action was a reversal so now we will check support.  I want to remain short the options as we head into the last 40 days before expiration (39 to be exact).  Look for wheat to test $3.10 and that is where I might go long wheat and short corn.  $1.10 on the spread is where I'll be testing the waters.

Rice - PB is up to 45% and that is where I wanted to short the market.  Now I need a reason.  OK...Where is the reason?  Well, I don't have one yet.  As I have been saying for weeks, this one is a complete mystery.  In general, futures should go up or cash come down.  Maybe they will do both.  For now, we will wait it out and see what happens.

Crude Oil - Came down hard today and we may finally have the top.  Natural gas moved higher as it might be starting to top out but there is still no confirmation.

Friday October 15th -

General Comments - Due to a timing schedule, this is being updated an hour before the close.  Nothing has changed in our analysis as stated below except, I really thought today would be a down day.  I'm not complaining at all as this just adds more fuel to the fire that wheat has bottomed and corn may be doing the same.  Rice tried to rally and as of right now PB is up to 33% with an hour to go in the trading session.  We will update all these markets tomorrow.

Thursday October 14th -

Corn - A reversal back down today signals the end of the short term rally and a test of where support really lies in this market.  Look for a lower day tomorrow.  This is no time to be buying.  In the near future, we may sell some calls AND some puts.  Still, the wheat/corn bull spread is the best play right now.

Soybeans - I am repeating myself here again.  We are going to cover the last 25% of our base position at $4.99.  It will take a sharply higher move to get a buy signal and I don't expect one for a while.  Remember, this is a profit taking buy order.  DO NOT GO LONG!!!

Wheat -  We are long wheat and short corn with short puts in wheat and short calls in corn.  We will put on futures positions soon in the bull wheat/corn spread.  I like the options right now as we go through the final death throws of the wheat bear market.  Look for the market lower tomorrow as we need to test support and consolidate the gains this week.  A close over $3.10 tomorrow is a major buy signal in wheat ON SHORT positions.  This indicates a weekly key reversal up and a major low is in place.  Also notice today's high was right up to the gap at $3.16.  This is where you would expect the shorts to defend their position.  If you are bearish and want to wait until the last minute, place your stops at $3.15 3/4.  If we get through there, the market should run to $3.25.

Rice - The market rallied today but didn't hold it.  PB (click for explanation of PB)  is up to 31% but that is not high enough to take a shot at the short side.  The basis in Texas has pulled back and cash prices are vulnerable to a lower premium in the next few weeks.  If you are still holding cash you might have a problem in the weeks ahead.  When Arkansas rice can freely flow into Texas and the USDA keeps WMP at the current level, we should see premiums drop toward the $1.25 level.  Something has to give and I don't see it being a run up in futures right now; however, I don't have a lot of confidence in my crystal ball either.

Energy - Another strong day in crude oil.  Natural gas looks like it is topping but it will be hard to drop a lot with crude where it is.  Can crude go to $60.00.  Yep, but it is not going to be easy.  PB on crude is 66% which means it has room to roar but also, it means that there is additional selling in the daily activity.  What a market....I'm still 50 miles away and on foot.  (Read last nights comments on gas.)

Wednesday October 13th -

Corn - Market continues to amaze me as we have found support and follow through buying from yesterdays sharp sell off.  We increased carry over by 400 million bushels and today's close was higher than the close before the report.  Go figure.  We have no reason to be doing anything here.  Rallies will be short in duration and selling will come back into the market with this kind of fundamentals.  For now, we do not want to anything.

Soybeans - We are going to cover the last 25% of our base position at $4.99.  You can put the order in.  We will not go long there and neither should you.  This is a profit taking buy order.

Wheat -  We think the market has made a major bottom.  Look at our report last night for more details.  Look for wheat to close the gap at $3.16 first and then maybe check for support.  We sold the $3.00 put along with the $3.10 put and will stay like that for now.  Long wheat and short corn should work in the next few months.

Rice - What to do???  I'm currently going back over 12 years of data looking for rhyme or reason for the current situation.  I still have a target of $6.00 and the fundamentals seem to support it.  PB is at 27% tonight which again is oversold but not dramatically so.  I will sell rallies unless I can find a reason not to.   

Cattle - I expect a back and fill market near term as we finish going through the heavy weight cattle. 

Natural Gas - Yesterday's big sell off was met with a massive key reversal back up today.  This may be the sucker buying surge.  If it is, this market is about to top.  It is spewing gas as they say and indicates a meltdown soon as magma comes to the surface.  Don't you just love that volcano stuff.  Anyway, it might not be the top so give it some room.  I'm about 50 miles away from this one on foot.  In other words, I'm not even close to trading it.

Tuesday October 12th -

General Comment - I wouldn't have believed it if I I hadn't watched it all day.  It was like watching the ASTRO'S play baseball.  What a comeback in corn and wheat.  Soybeans and Rice, well, that's a different story.  In general, today's trade in corn signals the end of the supply side of the market if today's low holds for two weeks.  Phase one ends and Phase two begins with a little overlap in the process.  Remember, phase two should be a sideways trend this year.

Corn - 11.6 billion bushels....WOW!!!!  The market was called 7 to 12 cents lower but managed to hold up extremely well given that number.  It ended 2 1/2 lower 5 1/2 off of the low.  What today's action indicates is the market would have been higher by 4 or 5 cents had the report come in at 11.2 billion bu. as expected. 

What does it all mean?  Let's just say this, we aren't going anywhere for awhile.  I can see us in a 20 cent range for several months.  Even so, as we have been writing here for weeks, the Supply side of the market is about over.  It could last a few more weeks given the size of this crop but we now know what number we are working with.  All objectives are hit, so now we will await the next phase of this market to take control as we look closer at demand.

Soybeans - We were taken out of our 2/3rds of our short positions today in November Soybeans at $5.15 for over a $1.40 in profit.  That still leaves us 25% sold on our base position.  I left the orders in this morning even thought I thought we would be sharply lower.  There is too much uncertainty in South America to ride a huge short position.  The market's action tells me we can trade under $5.00 but we will lift the last 25% of hedges when that happens.  The number today was bearish but it wasn't $4.50 bearish; however, we do have a chart objective of $4.35, I just don't want to believe this possible.

Wheat -  WHAT'S THIS!!! IT GOES UP????  The market was called 5 to 7 lower because of the bearishness of corn and beans and as promised, wheat opened lower moving into new contract lows.  After working 6 cents lower the market turned and moved higher closing up 8 cents right on its high.  That means the buyers are still in control and the sellers aren't there now.  I thought the numbers in wheat were right down bullish and bought wheat right after the open.  We are also short the December $3.10 put and want to ride those right into the dust.  Near term, today's key reversal up signals a short covering rally to a minimum of $3.16, which is at a gap and that could happen before the end of the week. Also, please get this, last weeks high AND low were taken out in today's range alone.  You should think about that for a second or two. Now we have a key reversal up for the week working against season lows.  It all makes sense.   If wheat closes this Friday over $3.10, major lows are in; however, I still like shorting the puts right now as they have lower risk and huge time premium.  Selling the $3.00 put at 6 cents is a HUGE GIFT!!!!  That may not be case in a few days.  And yes, I sold it again today.

Rice - WMP Up 8 cents.   WOW!!!  USDA increased carryover by 25%; however, only 5.8 million of the 8 million increase was in long grain.  The market tried to rally but ended 19 cents lower.  For you who remain bullish, you might need some help from the Democrats  "Spin Doctors" to help spin anything bullish from this report; however, I won't throw stones because I can't figure this one out.  Based on the report, it seems to me that we should be much lower and we're not.  Think about it, today's carry over in long grain is over double last years number and 60% more than in 2002-2003 when the average farm price was $4.49.   Today we are at $6.70 in futures.  Let's look at this in a nut shell, 60% more stocks with a 33% higher price!!!  What is wrong with this picture?  I think I need a "Spin Doctor" as my head is spinning just thinking about it.

Speaking of spinning, that is what Texas producers are doing as cash prices are running $1.20 over the futures price in Texas.  I'm really confused on this one.  Why would anyone hold cash when they can own the board $1.20 less and get all their money in for the crop?   I think some of us are spinning it deep in this market.  I will not own cash in this situation and in fact have sold all my cash rice and will wait on the board for a buy signal.  Today's break put PB at 28% so we are a little oversold but honestly, the numbers today were really bearish.  We may take PB under 20% under this scenario. 

We said weeks ago that we have a chance to go to $6.70 and that was hit today.  Longer-term, the chart forecasts a break to $6.00 and as of tonight, I think $6.00 has a shot.  I am going to do some in-depth analysis to see what I'm missing.  Anybody with a clue, please give me a call.

Cotton - Bearish number today and a bearish response.  Long-term sideways but we could test the lows too.

Cattle - I am back on the bull side as we have worked through some bearish weight numbers.  Look for the market to keep up some strength the next few weeks unless there is news on the Canadian ban on shipping to the United States.

Monday October 11th - 

General Comment - What ever I say here will change at 7:30 tomorrow morning so, I'll just wait.  We will see if the Soybeans know something no one else does as they rallied 11 cents today.  The report will have to be bearish to maintain the movement lower in Wheat and Corn.  The market expects it to be bearish.  Here are the estimates.  BB= Billion Bushels and MB= Million Bushels

Corn - Range - 11.06 - 11.38 averaging 11.270 BB with Ending Stocks - 1.468 BB

Soybeans - Range - 2.94 to 3.21 averaging 3.026 BB with Ending Stocks - 342 MB

Wheat - Ending Stocks - 593 MB

Rice - Increase in Stocks by 1 Million Cwt. (From a dart board)

If the numbers are really bad, say over the tops of the ranges, then look for a real bad day.  Otherwise, look at how big the shorts are and tomorrow, in my humble opinion, we will end the Supply phase of the market for Corn and Beans and in Wheat, we will start to head in to the Demand Phase quickly.  We will have comments here by 8 AM.

Friday October 8th - 

General Comment - I have switched to a general comment format until we get the report out next week.  Beans closed in the middle of their range today while corn and wheat on the lows but wheat was still higher at the end.  Wheat has been a real disappointment but it looks like buying is the underlying feature.  The selling at the close today looked like hedging with the buyers on the sideline.  Corn still looks sick but with an 11.3 billion bushel crop out there, that is what we would expect.  Rice tried to follow through to the downside but didn't stay on the lows.  Trading was EXTREMELY light.  Read our Weekly Comments for more information.  We will all be glad when next Tuesday is here and gone as we think things will react and then settle down after the report.

Thursday October 7th - 

General Comment - There is very little reason to spend much time on each commodity right now as we await the USDA WASDE report next Tuesday.  Look for the market to not do much in either direction.  After the report, depending on what it is, a neutral report will find short covering, so it will take a bearish report to keep the sellers active in any of the grains.  We will take a bigger look at all the markets in this weekend's update.

Wednesday October 6th - 

Corn - Interesting rally today turned the 60 minute chart higher with a 56% bullish number tonight.  Daily is down at 38%.  If this rally can run over $2.10 in December, we may have seen the lows even with a government report next Tuesday which will show a huge crop size.  Again, our position is unchanged.  We think the supply side of this years crop ends with the report and we head into the supply-demand phase which will be boring, to say the least.  BTW, today's close is over the 1 standard deviation low for the first time since October 9th.  This could signal the correction higher has done enough and a sell off right back to lows is possible.  The two days is very important.

Soybeans - The close today is not that strong and could signal a short term consolidation of the break.  We want to cover enough of our short position to move to 25% short on a move to $5.15.  We want a stop at $5.44 for our entire position the next two days. 

Wheat -  No follow through as the market, even with good news on the Canadian production numbers, found no buying to offset the sellers in the December wheat.  Tomorrow, we need for $2.99 to hold again, if we close below there, we may move toward the $2.89 level and want no long positions at all for now.  This market needs to rally from this level and soon. 

Rice - We are out and see it either way.  We may not trade this for a while.  BTW, PB is at 42% which remains in a bearish posture and the long-term trend is still down.  Even so, I'm not trading it right now.

Energy - Another strong day in Natural Gas and Crude Oil.  November Crude has a sell signal at $50.25 tomorrow but there is room to roam higher.  November Natural gas has a main sell signal at $6.09, that is a dollar under the current close.  It also has room to go higher in all indicators.  What a market!!!

Tuesday October 5th - 

Corn - Nothing really going on here.  The rally today was not impressive but we are near lows as the market finishes off the supply side of the equation with the USDA report coming out next Tuesday.  Look for higher and higher yield estimates but I doubt the USDA will jump through hoops to increase the number much over a 70% probability this early.  With that said, the report will keep the market in check near term.

Soybeans - "$5.20 to $5.10 is still our target window to the downside."  That has been our statement for many days and today's low of $5.19 hit the window.    Today's trade was a key reversal up but the volume was not that heavy so tomorrow needs to be a strong day to confirm a temporary low.  It is doubtful that happens this far from the USDA report as all eyes will be waiting for this report.  As we have been saying here, that report will end the Supply side of the market and we will then start to look at the Supply-Demand phase which should be a sideways affair for a while. 

Wheat -  Key reversal up today signals a possible floor in prices ahead of the report.  The funds are in a large short position and so they may not push the market lower until they see the numbers.  Tomorrow Canada reports their harvest numbers so the lack of selling may have come from that situation. 

Rice - No change here.  We are out and see it either way.  WMP was unchanged.