Sunday October 30th - 10:00 PM -

Corn - No change here but I think we are getting very close.  We are still leaving our LDP open but could lock it in this week on corn that is in loan and the 60 day lock in has past. 

Beans - Nothing here either.  We still feel the market could work lower.  Remember, news from Brazil is still a couple of months away.

Rice - Not changing our thoughts here.  We had sell signals but they didn't confirm.  I doubt they do.  Longer term we like but near term it could remain sideways. 

Natural Gas - Market continues to look top heavy.  We said weeks ago it has topped and that is still our opinion.

Cattle - We are looking for this rally to work higher and we will had to current sales.  Read our last Thursday's comments.

DOW - BIG DAY UP...We have been looking for this market to start its late fall rally and that may have started with last Friday's big move.  We'll see if there is follow through tomorrow.

Thursday October 27th - 2:00 PM -

Sorry for no comments last night...Had a complete internet failure in our Edna office

Corn - Well we didn't miss anything the last two days as the market quietly makes new lows every day.  Basis remains weak but there are distant rumblings.  We hope the LPD moves down another penny tomorrow.  We have run through our initial 60 day lock in period and are free to buy in our loans at any time with the current LDP.  Don't be surprised if we do it tomorrow if the market rallies into the close. 

Beans - Nothing here either.  Basis has improved a little but not enough to make us want to think of getting long here.  We still feel the market could work lower.

Rice - This market is sideways with a sell signal that didn't follow through today.  We may stay in this level for quite some time but longer term, we are going higher or we are not going to grow any rice.  At this price, no one can grow it and pencil out. 

Natural Gas - Nice improvement in inventory levels but the market doesn't care as it rallies back from the report lows.  Cold weather has specs not wanting to exit positions.  This could last for a while as the market conditions are out of control with spec fever.  We are out and waiting for better levels to own some Gas.

Cattle - WOW!!!  Trades like Crude Oil.  We dropped big time today but the buying resurfaced at lower levels so we didn't close under $89.50.  WE want to sell another 20% at 92 cents otherwise, we will be patient.

DOW - With an other 90 minutes to trade, who knows???  I still hope for a solid break of the 10,200 level and then we will look for a buying opportunity.  For now, we'll wait it out but we are running out of time.

Tuesday October 25th - 2:00 PM -

Corn - Market remains in a narrow range near its lows.  There is a half hearted attempt to make a bottom here and I think it could be successful over the next two to three weeks.  Then we will want to wait for a major buy signal which I doubt happens before Christmas.  We are locking in the LDP as fast we can as we see the basis starting to strengthen with the last of the corn being harvested.  

Beans - Nothing new to add here.  It is the traders darling right now but I suspect that will change in the near future.  Brazil will have a say in the value of beans in March and near term, there is little reason to get excited about a major move higher.  Harvest is almost done and we should get some better numbers in November.  We are not trading the beans but if I were, I'd be short for a little longer.

Rice - WMP - Unchanged:  Market rallied back after some weak sell signals yesterday.   Right now I have mixed signals but most indicators are still long and that is how I would be near term. 

Natural Gas - Again, I think this bounce should be sold but what a bounce...it destroyed a possible head and shoulders top and sets up a test of the contract highs.  I am not short and glad I'm missing this but still I think being short is the way to play on this rally.  For now, I'm going to wait it out and see if it can make a new high which sets up a bull trap.  That could be a very dangerous thing for the longs of this market but then again, that may not be what happens.  If it does, what a ride for the shorts.  It is really a tough market to trade right now and we will play in the mini's only and when we do it will be very small and quick until we have better signs of a top.  Odds still favor the short side longer term.

Cattle - We remain 30% sold for calve sales this fall.  The rally is holding and we want to add another 20% to sales on a move over 92.00 if we can get it.  We will continue to sell on a scale up program.  Remember, this is for cash sales and not spec positions.  I would wait for a move under 89.50 to play it short with a spec position as there is still a chance for a move to 95 cents before it's over. 

DOW - As I type this, the energy complex and the market sentiment reading has the market in a down draft after the powerful day yesterday.  We want to buy this one under 10,200 and believe we are running out of chances to do that.  The NASDAQ doesn't want to trade under 2000 either so we may give up on that as well.  For now, we'll stay out hoping this break gives us the chance to get on board for the end of year run. 

Monday October 24th - 2:00 PM -

General Comment - New contract lows and a close under $2.00.  We may be getting close to the low but when you look at March Corn still over $2.10, we may see the accordion action into the first of the year; however, a bounce in December is possible so that the when March falls into the December closing month range, it is actual level of $2.05 to $2.15.  All of that to say, we want to lock in LDP's as soon as we can and get ready to own corn futures if you can clip out an average basis.  Beans could still work down to the $5.35 to $5.50 level in January but they are holding strong in this $5.70 to $5.90 range. 

Rice - Well, the break back in rice has produced an initial sell signal in January but not in November.  We remain above the trend line with today's low right on the upward line in January.  A close under $7.40 would be a sell signal for most technicians.  We have no reason to sell it here and want to buy it longer term but we are talking next year for any real price improvement.  One thing is for sure, this price break is not giving bankers any more confidence that rice farming can pay out.  One more point, early harvest results in Texas, West of Houston for second crop, are coming in well below expectations with some of the rice possibly hurt by those hot dry winds when Rita came in.

Natural Gas - Some said the market was oversold and so we may have seen a short covering rally today.  Our system says we are not oversold and that the market has topped.  Its getting cold and demand for gas is expected to go higher; however, we think there is more and more gas coming back on line and this bounce should be sold. 

Cattle - We remain 30% sold for calve sales this fall with the market looking like it may have topped but not really confirming it yet.  A close under $89.50 will do that..

DOW - A powerful day today as the market worked higher.  This 10,200 level is very strong and it will be hard for the market to get through it without some more bearish news.  I still think odds favor it but again, October is almost over and it is usually the bad month so we are not going to press the bear side of the matter. 

Friday October 21st - 3:00 PM -

General Comment - Lower again today after yesterday's little bounce in corn but beans finished lower both days.  As we have been saying, beans are going to have a tough road to hoe near term and corn is probing for a long term low.  Next week, we expect harvest to be about 65% complete with additional corn to be sold in the next two weeks which may be enough to push December below $2.00.  I would like to buy March corn at $2.09 but that may be out of reach.  In any event, we still recommend LDP'ing corn right now.

Rice - Nothing has changed for us.  Once any second cropping is finished and rice has found a home in Arkansas, I expect a gradual move higher in the cash which will put some upward pressure on prices.  When the commercials find out how many acres are NOT going to be planted in 2006, prices will move higher as they start to make covering purchases.  Right now, they don't believe the farmer isn't going to plant about the same as they did last year.  IF they believe that, I have bridge in San Francisco I'll be glad to sell them.   

Natural Gas - This market remains a toss up.  Cold weather is starting to filter in and there is another storm besides Wilma to think about.  We still want to sell this contract as there is plenty of Gas at this price.  We will sell rallies. 

Cattle - As we said last night, we have sold 30% of our calves using December Fat cattle futures.  The close today is right on our long term support so next week is going to be critical.  A move under $89.50 will bring the heavy sellers.

DOW - Another down day.  We still like the DOW to test 10,000.  Today we broke under 10,200 and then rallied 70 points but the market couldn't hold the rally so again, I think selling is going to dominate near term.  A move under 10,000 would be a buy for sure but I think the 10,100 may be very difficult to break for very long so get ready.  This is going to be fast and furious.

Thursday October 20th - 2:00 PM -

General Comment - No major news.  A little short covering in corn late but again on very little volume.  I think y position is well known for daily readers.  We are trying to wait it out and hope for one push lower and then to start buying in positions.  Beans can still work lower and ratio spreads on corn and beans are going to be interesting in the near future.

Natural Gas - We came in short and hit the big break taking off the positions under 12.85 expecting a bounce back to 13.20 and by golly we got that one too.  I see this market lower still so sell rallies. 

Cattle - Confirming a short term or maybe even a longer term top.  I still hope for one more push but a move under 90 cents probably sets up a down draft in December.  We are selling here to about 30% of our position and hoping we can sell more higher. 

DOW - As I write this we are working lower.  I still see another push at the lows and maybe the 10,000 level.  That will be a buying opportunity in dividend paying funds.

Wednesday October 19th - 6:30 PM -

General Comment - Nothing here today in the corn or beans.  We still see the market sideways over the near term with corn probably probing under $2.00 in December.  Beans are sideways as well.  Longer term we like the corn and don't like the beans that much but don't want to be short.

Natural Gas - Market watching Wilma to see where she is headed.  We think Florida is the likely point on entry and it will hit with some real force.  It will not affect the production in the gulf and I think the market will work lower after we know where its going.  Crude report was bearish today and the Gas report tomorrow may also be a surprise.  We are o w short here and will hold that position tomorrow.

Cattle - WOW...Got the bounce as we thought we would get and discussed on Monday but today's action is negative as we have a huge spike.  I will go short at today's low which may happen on the open tomorrow.  This is a hammer head down after making new highs so a move under today's low is very significant.

DOW - Moved higher today with good results out of a few areas.  We still think the market is going nowhere in the long term.  10,460 is resistance tomorrow with 10,600 the next level.  While there is a lot of money on the sidelines that can come to the market, it will take more than regular money management purchases to take us into new highs.  I do not see the market as undervalued at all.  Longer term I see the 10,000 level tested.

Wednesday October 19th - 10:30 AM -

General Comment - Sorry for no update last night.  Things happen!!!  Anyway, the big mover yesterday was rice as REFCO keeps selling.  Who knows what will happen with that but we still have no sell signals in the rice.  In beans, as we thought Monday, Tuesday was a down day.  I still don't see the beans going anywhere but we could stay in this range for a few weeks.  In corn, the market is right back on contract lows and I expect a move under $2.00 for December before its over. 

Natural Gas - Lower with the hurricane being less and less a problem for production.  I see it under $13.00 in the next several days.

Cattle - Got the bounce we expected and called for on Monday.  Let's see how high it goes. 

Monday October 17th - 4:00 PM -

General Comment - Corn checked lows today but couldn't go lower as beans continued their bounce from the October report.  After the close the USDA said harvest was 49% complete compared to the trade thinking about 52% was complete.  This will have little to no affect.  Funds remain in a small short position compared to the specs in the market which hold a 68,000 contract short position.  I doubt the funds are going to come in selling this one very hard but there is still no reason for corn to bounce very much from here near term.  Beans sold off at the end but stayed higher for the day.  That may not be the case tomorrow as I think we could see some selling control the market tomorrow.  Don't misunderstand.  I'm not selling it but it does look like it could be a weaker day tomorrow in the beans

Rice - The correction could be over here as commercial and tech buying came into the market.  I think Refco which is in trouble with the government, may have exited some long positions here the last few days.  I am not sure about that but there seems to be something to this idea.  What a mess that is going to be.  Aren't you guys who trade with us glad we left Refco last year.  

Natural Gas - Another storm???  The market rallied today on ideas another shut down in gas is possible from Wilma.  The models are not in agreement here at all.  For now we'll wait for the direction currents to gain some strength but forecasters are not agreeing on this one right now.  From what I see, only one says it will hit the production fields in the gulf.  The other models say no.  This rally may not last long so get ready.  We'll sell it.

Cattle - Market moved lower today but didn't really have any power in today's action. We may see some buying near term here to see just where major resistance is over the top of this one.  A move back to $90.50 is possible in December.  We don't like the cash prices where they are compared to the December futures but golly, you got to like the demand picture for a little while longer.  I'm thinking we are indeed toping near term and would sell a rally here. 

Friday October 14th - 2:00 PM -

General Comment - New lows for corn today but the selling wasn't that aggressive.  It is just that the buying was non-existent until the close and so we came back up and finished unchanged.  Beans are holding in a tight range since the report.  That is usually bullish so we may see the Jan Beans get back over $6.20 early next week.  For now, we are looking for a place to sell beans.  Come on guys, where is it going to go?  Brazil has a crop just being planted and we still have a big crop for this year.  Longer term, bean acres are going A LOT HIGHER based on fertilizer costs!!!  In general, this rally should be sold as the beans WILL lose their trading luster.  In that regard, the COT report will be interesting this afternoon. 

One more thing, PB tonight is 46% for corn and 62% for beans.  In my opinion, that is too far of a spread in this type of market.  We will look to the COT report tonight to see where the risk is on this spread and and we may have a recommendation on how to get some of this premium out of the market.  More on that next Monday.

Rice - Still showing a target of $7.90 in November or $8.10 in January.  We sold off today but there wasn't much selling once we got down 9 cents.  We did have some profit taking on the close or it may have been locals selling.  Not sure as I type this.  We would buy a break here as there is still too much unknown in the rice market and it looks like fundamentals are shifting.  Farmers are not selling at this level and won't until late next year of the bankers sells them out.  That is actually a possibility in some areas.

Natural Gas - Gap lower today couldn't hold.  I didn't expect a gap here and the market came back all day in a quiet trade to close the gap just before the close.  The main resistance remains at the left shoulder of the current formation which is at $13.60.  We still think the top is in and have a target of under $12.00 (11.60 to be exact).    Crude really came back after making new lows for this move early rallying $1.30 off of the lows.   Both of these markets are going to volatile so expect days like this.  

Cattle - IS IT OVER???  Cattle broke hard today on no news.  Profit taking is expected to be the culprit but we are at pretty lofty levels so this type of action is to be expected.  Margins for processors are not good right now but the demand for cattle is not dropping either.  We think we may indeed may have just made a top today.  Even so, the action in a top following a 5 wave move (read below and look at chart) is usually very violent so don't be surprised to see this one take right back off for the recent highs.  What happens then will be the key.  We have a 95 cent target but have said all along, the real target was 90 and that has been hit.  The 95 cent target is a weak one.  For hedgers, get ready, we want to lock in some sales near term.  

DOW - As expected, the 10,200 level remains a tought one to get through.  This is long term support and we may test it several times.  While we moved through that level last week, we have not been able to close below it and setup a move to test 10,000.  For me, the odds remain high we will get through it.  The question is, can we take out 10,000.  For us, the NASDAQ below 2000 is the target and we will go long using funds on a buy signal after we have gone below that level.  This could be a couple of weeks away.  I wouldn't be surprised for the market to rally back into the 10,350 to 10,400 window before making another push.  First resistance is at 10,330 but the big stuff is just a few points higher than that.  We'll be selling on a failure in this level IF we can get back up there.

Thursday October 13th - 3:30 PM -

General Comment - No follow through by anything today sets us up to test the lows in everything except rice.  Corn closed lower and is almost against contract lows.  Any gains by the short covering rally yesterday is gone and beans are showing a "hammer head" formation which is bearish near term.  A move over today's high would negate it but if we move below $5.80, we could accelerate lower. 

Rice - Still showing a target of $7.90 in November or $8.10 in January.  Market kept firm today and there is no real reason to sell the market just yet. 

Natural Gas - Here we go!!!   If you will read our comments below you'll see we have been warning of a major top.  It looks like we are indeed setting up a head and shoulders formation which indicates the top is in.  A over over $13.60 negates the formation and to be honest, it could happen.  There is a lot of bullish news coming out but the market has not accepted that as anything new.  We want to sell a rally here.

Cattle - Moved over 92 cents today.  No reason yet to short it as we are holding out for 95 cents.

DOW - Moved below 10,200 again but couldn't close there.  We may see another rally but performance of the majors is not that strong and we are still 3 weeks away from the end of October and where the market normally bottoms.  We want to buy the NASDAQ under 2000.

Wednesday October 12th - 3:30 PM -

General Comment - The report this morning was a little bullish beans and neutral corn; however, the last two weeks leading up to this report has seen the sellers more aggressive.  Today was a short covering bounce and when you look at the corn you can see the sellers came back at the end of the day and trimmed the gains.  In fact, corn closed in the middle of its range with March barely closing in the lower portion of its daily range.  Is that it for the buying bounce???  Not ready to say that but where are we going.  We have the second largest crop out there and its not even 50% harvested yet.  For now, we'll wait and see where the trade goes near term.

Rice - Nice up move today with the report.  I still think we cam move higher based on quality issues as well as the losses from quantity.

Natural Gas - We almost did it today.  The market went right to our resistance point of $13.60 and backed off but couldn't crash lower like we would have loved to seen.  Tomorrows inventory report will be the key at this price range and we'll wait to see it.  A move back under $13.00 should set the wheels in motion for a test of $12.00. 

Cattle - Nothing new here as cattle watched the corn and moved off its lows when corn didn't hold its highs.  Frankly, I think cattle will not watch corn for very long here.  We may put in a top near this level but still are hoping for one more push toward 95 cents. 

DOW - 10,200 was violated today but we couldn't close under this position.  Looks like it could as we think the NASDAQ will trade below 2000 in the next few days.  Look for 10,000 as the next level of support if we can close under the 10,200 level.

Wednesday October 12th - 8:30 AM - USDA REPORT COMMENTS

General Comment - Today's trade will be interesting.  The world picture is not very bullish in any of these markets but we may see tem start higher based on the report finally being issued and some profit taking is to be expected.  Then comes the selling of harvest.  We know there is more to go as farmers cut this huge crop.  Where does it come in?  Good question and one I'd like answered before being a buyer here.  We didn't buy this yesterday but if I had, I would be looking for a place to lay it off again on a rally here.  Again, today's trade will be interesting.  If we start higher and end lower...we are not to the end of this tunnel yet.

Rice - Who knows!!!  We don't get expert estimates before the report but comments from traders indicate they were expecting a cut.  Did they expect 5 million cwt., I doubt it!!!  But then the USDA lowered use by 2 million cwt. so the bottom line is we have a cut by 3 million and then there is the quality issue.  I think the market will trade higher off of this report but the world picture will be very important to look at as well. 

Tuesday October 11th - 2:00 PM -

General Comment - We'll make it short and sweet tonight.  We did nothing today as the market was never down on the day.  We closed near the lows so I still say the market expects a bearish report on corn.  Beans were higher and we will see if the USDA increases production with them or not.  We'll update this page by 8:30 in the morning.

Rice - Nothing today as the market awaits tomorrow's numbers. 

Natural Gas - The support zone has held and the market moved higher today.  $13.60 is resistance tomorrow with an outside shot at 14.00 but I'll buy Jan puts before we get to that level.  I still want to sell this rally.

Cattle - Nothing here today either so we remain watching for topping signs.

DOW - 10,200 remains support.  Who knows, that could be gone later today but I doubt it just yet.

Monday October 10th - 2:00 PM -

Note - Our server had some problems so this update was not actually uploaded until 5:30 AM on the 11th

General Comment - The market remains on the defensive ahead of Wednesday's report.  Looks like the big money is on a bearish report.  As I said earlier, I expect a "Sell the rumor buy the fact" type of reaction to the numbers.  I may go home tomorrow night long about 10% of my base buy back position but in any case, I will be looking to get a bigger position back on Wednesday after the report.  My guess is we will put in the lows and trade sideways into the end of the year.  Beans could dip to $5.35 in the Jan contract based on technical action. 

Rice - PB remains at 60% indicating a bullish tilt to the market.  That means this break is a buying opportunity.  We won't buy anything until the report is past and we see just where the USDA is coming in on yield.  Remember, the problems in rice is not quantity but quality.  This will not be seen in the numbers Wednesday but will be seen where the market supports rice after the report is digested.  I'm still looking for a further break and then would like to buy it after we support.

Natural Gas - Support is at $12.60 and today's low is close enough.  We could bounce back here in the next few days especially with more storm activity being talked about.  It is unlikely, in my opinion, that a storm like Rita or Katrina will affect the gulf rigs.  While it is still hurricane season, we have had a front pass and it has brought cooler temps and colder rain to the gulf.  We are at 79 degrees at Galveston today down from 84 when Rita was coming in.  We could still get a storm but its intensity would probably not be enough to bring major damage.  It still could bring a shut down of production for a couple of days.  All of this to say, I doubt we can make new highs here.  Production levels will increase in the next few weeks as more wells come back online and there is a strong move to open other wells inland that have been shut in waiting for process to be high enough to re-activate.  We will sell this rally.

Cattle - Market remains firm here with still at shot at 95 cents.  That os so hard to say.  If w get to that level, I'm sure I will have a losing trade going because I won't wait on 95 to sell it.  We are looking for a top anytime but know it could be weeks away even now. 

DOW - 10,200 is major support but it is the wrong time of year and the wrong time for the business cycle to see a major low this week.  We may dip below this level and test 10,000 but again, we want to buy the NASDAQ on a break of the 2000.  This is a long term trade using funds. 

Friday October 7th - 2:00 PM -

General Comment - Market continue to head lower in front of October USDA report.  I think the market will find some support once it knows the numbers but that could come from 2 to 7 cents lower depending on how bearish the numbers are with corn.  What if it's not bearish?  We could have a sharp bounce.  Because of that, we may take a 20% long position into the report.  I did say "may" didn't I.  We'll see how the market trades early next week as we still have a couple of trading days before Wednesday morning's numbers.

Rice - No selling at this level but not much buying either.  Shorts are going to find it hard to motivate buyers to back away until we get a better handle on the yields in the delta after Rita.  We want to buy dips here if the numbers support what we think is the begging of a decline in stocks over the next two years.  $2.50 diesel just doesn't pencil out in rice.

Natural Gas - Again, the market has topped and we want to sell a bounce here.  If you have ever lived through a post top bounce, you know what I'm trying to avoid.  Crude maybe starting its post top bounce today.  Gas tried to rally but then sold off.  It is over here but we would only sell it on a rally.

Cattle - Selling at the close trimmed the gains here but we shot up to challenge recent highs after being lower and finished with an outside day up.  While this is normally a continuation signal, it could also be signs of additional volatility at the current high.  This could indicate a possible top.  We'll see what the action is Monday before doing anything, but a key reversal down on Monday would be a bad indicator.  If we make new highs for the move and then go down on the day, we will sell the market to 50% of our calve sales for this fall.  We did close into new highs for Feeder cattle so those two contracts are not showing the same thing.  Still, we will sell if there is a reversal forming Monday and we will use the Fat Cattle contract.

DOW - We day traded today with the market setup for a reversed signal day and it worked pretty well.  Whenever we got a sell signal we bought and vise versa.  In other words, today was boring as it could be.  I still see the down under 10,200 and want to buy NASDAQ funds below 2000.  I'm not that bearish obviously and longer term I still us range bound in the 10,000 to 11,000 area.  If you think about it, this is a sideways market and in that regards, if you are in growth stocks, it should be a losing proposition.  If your in Blue Chip dividend stocks, you should break even.  There will be certain sectors that gain but then they'll lose, like I think this is a VERY BAD time to be in energy stocks.  They have had their run.  Housing isn't going to work very well either near term.  So where do you put your money?   Buy against support and sell against resistance.  We are headed for support so get ready.  Also, it is October and here is when we usually make lows.

Gold - We do not like the dollar at this level.  That makes us bullish gold but it could be weeks before we see any movement here. 

Thursday  October 6th - 2:00 PM -

General Comment - Another nothing day in the grains.  This is how it should be through the reports next week.  One more push down after the USDA corn production number is a real possibility.

Rice - Very low volume day as the market here too wants to see the USDA numbers next week.  I still see the market moving a little higher but then a break back through harvest is possible.  Production cuts in rice are a very real possibility in this report as well as next year.

Natural Gas - TODAY WAS THE DAY!!!  Yep, this is the one we have been writing about (read comments below) as Gas has confirmed a top.  We will sell rallies now as the wind is way out of the sail and any push back up is a major selling opportunity.  Look over at crude.  After the big day down last week, it bounced once and now has made new lows and is even oversold.  Same thing will happen in Natural Gas.  Again, sell rallies here and if you are long, get out on any bounce.

Cattle - Read last nights comments.  Cattle is still setup to go to 95 cents but December is closing in on us.  We like the move to 91 cents and while the signal can be considered complete at this level, the market has other indicators showing one more push; however, we are long in the field and are looking to be short on the board.  We remain ready to sell but need the right action.  

Wednesday October 5th - 2:00 PM -

General Comment - Nothing today.  Market still seems satisfied that harvest yields are going to be larger than first thought and there is no reason to be buying any coverage beyond the next few weeks.  Basis remains weak and cash prices reflect the current surplus.  While I still see an accordion type chart pattern for March corn futures, I don't see it for May.  This would indicate, longs should be established prior to March going into deliveries; however, that is 5 months away.  Patience is the game plan for now.  Same with soybeans.  The only difference is we will get to see the Brazilian crop and the amount of acres shifting from corn to beans.  If you think that's not going to happen, you should be short a ton of energy futures. 

Rice - Closed up about 2 cents.  Not anything to write home about as the damage to the crop comes better into focus.  If we are going to climb over $7.60 it needs to happen fairly quickly.  The chart still looks good as does the indicators but a correction near term maybe the coming to test support levels especially after a light trading day like today.

Natural Gas - We tried a short day trade today and it worked for a whole 5 cents.  The market remains in a tight range right here with traders very nervous.  Even with crude down over $1.00, the gas is finding it hard to sustain any sell off.  Tomorrow is a different day with the storage report expected to show an increase but very small at that.  We still are looking for a hard day down to tell us its time to be short.  Nothing yet.

Cattle - For you in our service, you know we have been talking about the 5 point Elliot Wave buy signal that occurred a few weeks back projecting 90 cents in December and then 95 as a target.  It has worked to hit our first objective and while it will be hard to get to 95, it still remains a possibility.  Today's action took some of the steam out of the move but didn't do anything to the bullish chart formation.  For now, we will remain in a cautious bullish stance and see how the market trades the rest of this week.  We are looking to get some hedges in place for winter calve sales if we can get a clean sell signal.

DOW - The break in the Dow the last few days is to be expected as we see earnings OK for the third quarter but very anemic for the fourth.  We would buy the NASDAQ index below 2000 but that is a long way away.  I can see the Dow down to 10,200 in the next few weeks to check support. 

Tuesday October 4th - 3:00 PM -

General Comment - The market gave up the gains of the last few days.  As we have been pointing out, the market is not ready for a sustained bull move.  Another hurricane moving into the Mid west with 8 to 10 inches of rain could change that but what are the odds?  Don't ask!!!    Look for the lows to be tested again.  We'll stay out of the market for now looking for a time to get some calls in place.  By the way, we will probably use a call spread strategy in the May contract.  Then try to buy in the short side of the spread at a later time.  We'll explain this strategy more a little later on.  

Rice - WMP unchanged....    Once again, the market started with selling and then gave way to buying.  No sign of a top as we approach the $7.45 - $7.60 resistance window.  Then the resistance comes in at $7.95.  Anyone for a $3.00 premium based on the July futures.  It's almost there.

Natural Gas - We tried to lower but couldn't and that was with crude down over $2.00 at one time.  Crude finished down $1.50.  Read my comments from yesterday.  There is still no reason to short this market right now.  We may not be able to make new highs but there is still a chance of another storm or two that could put upward pressure on natural gas.  I will say this...A major short is coming but it's not here yet.   

Monday October 3rd - 9:00 PM -

General Comment - Funds took technical indicators to heart today and bought corn lifting it toward resistance.  Right now, I look for December to have problems at $2.13 to $2.15.  The fundamentals are still bearish and we are on the wrong side of harvest.  Look for more sideways action and also, more bearish news dead ahead.  That goes for the beans as well.

Rice - Slow day with early profit taking lowering prices where commercials could do some buying and they did.  Still looks to go a little higher near term as we see what the fundamentals really are in a few weeks.

Natural Gas - Finished higher but closer to the low than the high.  Do we have another storm in the offing for the Gulf of Mexico.  Specs are not going to turn loose of this one very fast.  Again, we are looking for a major move lower coming at it will be a huge down day.  Just one day's trade sharply lower.  When that happens the top is in and we'll short it but not until we see the capitulation and the bulls blood in the streets.  It's coming but I don't know when.