Tuesday October 31st -  ....Tuesday's Closing Comments

Corn - Corn couldn't hold with wheat and beans down hard.  The market looks like it is testing near term support but the chart in corn now looks like wheat did a week ago.  And it is not pretty.  A move under $3.15 in December could bring in a test of $3.00 but I think the odds favor the gap holding so this break is a buying opportunity in my opinion.  Patience near term is advised.  

Wheat - Major break today.  As we have been warning you, the wheat chart looked and still looks horrible; however, the main fundamentals have not changed.  The current fundamentals are a good supply of cash wheat and known demand.  The longer term outlook is more bullish but that is longer term and for the near term, things are going to get nasty. 

Beans - If you need to sell beans in this quarter, sell 50% NOW!!!  And get ready to sell the other 50% very soon.  Today's action sets up a good break here.

Rice - We bought some rice today to get back to 20% long in January on the break.  This will be interesting but I'm not ready to chase it at all.  Patience should be used here too.  Remember, open interest is down and a move like today may not hold for long.  I'm not saying it will or won't, I'm suggesting that there is two sided trade here and one day doesn't change that...YET!!!

Cattle - Same comments as last night...."Further down today as the market rolls over after the bounce.  This sets us up to test the lows and I think they will be easily taken out.  The fundamentals are changing here and its not good news."   

Natural Gas - The market fell to support just over the $7.00 level...so now what????  I'm not sure and I don't really need to trade it right here. so we will let the market tell us what it needs.  Fact is, we may have fallen into a large sideways trading range.

Dow - Market maybe heading lower in front of the election...longer term I would agree that a Democrat controlled congress will be negative corporate profits.  They have been promising way too much; however, near term, it won't make much difference.  I see it higher but a move lower is certainly possible near term. 

Monday October 30th -  ....Monday's Closing Comments

Corn - We basically held in the daily range from Friday.  Wheat was under pressure and that didn't help.  Concern the funds are too long and their buying is about to dry up may be setting the market up for a correction but we could see another push toward $3.47 which remains the target of the gap.  Here is the thing to remember, this target holds as long as the gap remains open so a break back to $3.00 would not negate the target and it would be a good buying opportunity based on current fundamentals.  In general, we could enter a time of back and forth between support and resistance so the next few days will be critical.

Wheat - Market testing support.  The chart looks horrible and I see a breaking of support at $4.97.

Beans - Still going on news that will end like a fourth of July bottle rocket.  Get ready to sell this one....

Rice - Still on the sidelines but the market is heading down into support.  The open interest is balanced so we may find ourselves testing the lows from a few weeks back.  We will want to replace longs especially if you have sold rice at $4.00 and are prepared to re-enter using futures or options.. 

Cattle - Further down today as the market rolls over after the bounce.  This sets us up to test the lows and I think they will be easily taken out.  The fundamentals are changing here and its not good news.   

Natural Gas - As I said this morning...natural gas hit our objective and now will test major support ay $7.00.  Longer term, we do not want to own anything here but owning December under $7.00 may be interesting.  I look for the accordion move of the deferred months back into the recent range.  Bull spreads are best.

Dow - We remain long here as nothing to change the over riding economy issues is happening.  If the Democrats win either of the houses, I look for a strong correction ere so get ready. 

Sunday October 29th -  ....Friday's Closing Comments

Grains - Things will return to normal starting tomorrow (I hope).  There are not many comments for Friday's close other than corn holding every thing higher.  Wheat is performing terrible and still looks like a major top.  Corn still has a target of $3.47 and I think the techs will sell it like crazy once it hits there, but for now, the market remains very volatile and hard to trade.  I for one am glad I was gone last week and didn't trade it because it was "Cut-up" central.  This week may not be much better.

Rice - Nothing new here.  We remain mostly on the sidelines looking for a reason to own it.  That has been the right call so far. 

Cattle - The break here today may signal rejection but I'm not convinced just yet we have found enough selling to break us very far.  This week will be one to watch closely and a move back under 88.50 in December on a closing price, could bring in more selling. 

Natural Gas - We hit our objective of $8.50 and then found a lot of selling.  Weather concerns will need to be of historic proportion to stop the gas inventory from going even higher.  That means a test of major support which may be back under 7.00 for December. 

Thursday October 26th -  ....Closing Update

Corn - This is beginning to look like a tennis match.  Watch the ball go back and forth across the net.  Corn still looks like it wants to climb for the $3.47 target and there appears to be good buying around $3.20.  A move under $3.15 changes the outlook near term but odds are not favoring that right now.  Even so, I am not trading this one this week since I am away from the market for long periods of time throughout the day.  (However long it takes to play the front or back nine.)  At this point I'm pretty happy about that as I can see a lot of "chop" going on here.  Look for corn to move higher still as that seems to be the direction of least resistance; however, things can change in a heart beat so do not get married to any position. 

Soybeans - Reversal yesterday but again, no follow through to the downs side and with out that, this market is not telling us it is finished going higher.  Even so, yesterday's high is resistance an a good place to sell against for technical traders so look for selling to increase if we can approach that level again.

Wheat - The chart looks pitiful and once again the selling seems more than enough on any rally to stop the advance.  Corn could drag it back higher from this level but all in all, I still say it looks like a significant high.

Rice - Nothing new.  We are currently below the 9 week moving average, the 21 day moving average and the trend is don.  PB is negative at 38% and the strength indicator pointed higher today on the bear leg indicating the start of a move down; however, the market closed higher on the day which negates that signal.   With all of that said, the higher close today provides a hook reversal up and now we wait to see if the market can follow through tomorrow.  It is uncanny how rice does the opposite of wheat these past few weeks and NO I don't think there is a correlation...it's just interesting.

Cattle - Big day up here and now I start looking for a place to sell this rally.  I hope it is not tomorrow as I will have little time to watch it but I would think not based on how it got here.  I think we have a few days...or should I say, I hope we have a few days.

Natural Gas - We have been warning of a move back to 8.50 in December and sure enough the electronic market it $8.50 only to sell off big time.  We may see another push near term but I doubt we can hold much above that level without some really bullish news.

Dow -  We are getting close to our 12,200 target.  I am looking for a spike reversal here at some point.

Wednesday October 25th -  ....Closing Update

Corn - Here we go again.  Today's action is one of a spike as the market ended higher but well down off of the highs.  Wheat and beans reversed.  Near term it looks like corn can continue to slowly power forward but it may have to do it on its own.  The chart remains bullish but the market is also over bought and the trend line is extremely steep.  The gap remains as does the $3.47 target but it could be weeks before that target is hit or it could be next week.  WHAT A MARKET!!!  For us, we like right where we are...long all the cash we can be long and if we need to sell some here in the fourth quarter, we wanted to 75% sold. 

Lets see what happens here the next two days.  $3.15 is now support and today's high resistance.

Soybeans - OK...a strong sign of a top in beans today with a huge spike and a hook reversal down.  Tomorrow will be key as a follow through n selling could indicate an intermediate top.  We may have some sales recommendations here soon.

Wheat - If we sell off tomorrow (Thursday), this market is yelling at us that a top is in place and it could be a big one.  Get ready to sell another 25% of fourth quarter sales and maybe our first 25% of the first quarter.  This is looking like a major top right now.

Rice - I still want to own it but not yet. 

Cattle - Up a little more today but there isn't any technical of fundamental reasons to trade right now.  hat could change any day.

Natural Gas - Still on track for $8.50...nothing new from us.  Cold weather has the bears re-thinking supply excess. Don't worry guys, It is still there!!!

Dow -  More up again today.  Still 12,200 on our hit list.

Tuesday October 24th -  ....

PLEASE NOTE >>>      I am in North Carolina this week so the daily updates will be late everyday.  Friday's update will not be done until Saturday morning.

Corn - I said this morning that the odds of a short term top were 60-40.  The market proved me wrong today and if there is follow through tomorrow, we are ready to move toward he $3.47 level much earlier than I expected.  This is the target of the gap that we thought would be tested a week ago and while it tested the gap, I expected it closer than what we actually got.  Now the market is set to run quickly toward the gap target.

If we are going to hit $3.50 before Christmas, this sets up an even higher high in the spring.  While we sold some of our fourth quarter sales, we still have some to price in on this leg and we have been saying store what ever you can, for this very reason.  I know most of you are storing everything.  In any event, let me reiterate what I have been saying...DO NOT BE SHORT HERE IN AN EVENT!!! 

Soybeans - No sign of a top here and with corn set to run another 20 cents higher near term, look for beans to hold these gains near term.

Wheat - Still showing signs of a top but with corn running, wheat could challenge he highs again. We are sold higher than the close today on 75% of 4th quarter sales.  We will add here on a good sell indicator.

Rice - Sharply lower today on spec selling and fund liquidation.  We are approaching levels we might want to start to own longer term.  News that more rice is being bought from Thailand and Viet Nam because of the GMO issue, is weighing on prices as well.  Patience...we need to watch this a little longer. 

Cattle - A quiet day.  We may rally a bit more but the fundamentals have changed here.

Natural Gas - Back and forth we go.  Technically, we could rally more but I think we will find the market going down easier than going up.

Dow -  More up again today.  Still 12,200 on our hit list.

Monday October 23rd -  ....

PLEASE NOTE >>>      I am in North Carolina this week so the daily updates will be late everyday.  Friday's update will not be done until Saturday morning.

Corn - Reversal day today as the market put in a trend day higher after making a new low on the open.  Today's bounce was technical only as the funds came for it and comments from the floor indicate a desire for buyers to own this market before the next leg up. 

This bounce was expected but the question of whether we can start the second leg right here is very much in the minds of technical traders.  If tomorrow (Tuesday), the market reverses right back down, then the answer becomes "unlikely right now."  If we can move into new highs, then the market is saying we must move higher to stop the aggressive buying.  Today's action was one of those who missed the last rally getting on board.  Fundamentally, nothing changed today.

Soybeans - After the reversal last Friday the market found no follow through to the downside today so the sell setup was destroyed. Friday's low now becomes a sell signal for bean trades.

Wheat - Odd are now for a technical bounce to the $5.30 to $5.40 level.  Another reversal in this price range is possible as the market volatility continues.  Odds still favor a short term high and the chart remains bearish. 

Rice - Nothing new here.  We remain in the trading range from last Monday.  Long term we still like it but no sign of anything different right now.

Cattle - Exactly as we thought on Friday.  The market needs to find the sellers so it had a nice bounce today.  This could continue for a couple more days.

Natural Gas - Down day today but there is still no change in the formation as we look for buyers.  No reason to trade here yet.

Dow -  We remain long here and now look for some consolidation but still no sign of a significant top.  We still see 12,200 in the near future. 

Friday October 20th -  ....

PLEASE NOTE >>>      I specifically set the dates of October 22nd to October 29th for my vacation this year assuming it would be at a slower time of year.  Well, it is not slower but if I don't go on this trip, I'll be baching it for more than a week, if you get my drift.  I will have my computer with me and it is live on the market as long as I have a wireless phone connection.  I will be updating the webpage every day as long as I have a connection so if you don't see something here, you'll know I lost in some back part of the Carolinas (with a nine iron of course.)  Anyway, I should have updates for the closing each day but they will be late in the day.  Opening comments will be sporadic and there will be no mid-day updates next week.  Thanks for your understanding.

Corn - We have sold cash corn at good basis levels and and a good price on the cash we must sell in the fourth quarter.  Today's action again points to an intermediate top but a rally back to test the high is not out of the question.  The wheat chart looks extremely climatic and odds favor a dip here near term in both the wheat and corn. 

Again, this is short-term.  Long-term we see the market higher into the spring planting season and the fact we started a little early on this rally has not escaped us at all.  Another early start is possible so on this break we will start looking for any reason to own it. 

Soybeans - A reversal down in beans today now has the soybeans in a posture to sell off as well.  We need follow through on Monday and if it happens, look for a good break here and we will do some selling early in the week...vacation or no vacation.

Wheat - Can wheat go just straight down from here...yep, but it is not likely unless some bearish news hits the market.  Near term, we see the market up and then down but mostly lower to test the $4.90 level first and then maybe the $4.85 level.  Under $5.00 some people are going to want to own it but I think they can own it lower if nothing changes fundamentally.  We have sold 75% of must sell cash positions and will hold there for now.

Rice - Rice is going through more and more liquidation.  Open interest dropped 1000 contracts last week and that was with a sideways trading range.  No reason to change our position.  We have dropped back to 20% to 30% long depending on your position in January.  That is comfortable and we'll see what happens early next week.  On a good dip, we will probably start buying the Jan or even March if there is any volume out that far.

Cattle - Cattle report today is a little bearish so we may see some downward push but frankly I doubt much.  We had some selling a couple of days ago which probably put this report in the market.  We see the market drifting lower but early weakness next Monday may not hold through out the day and the market may want to check where the selling is in this one.

Natural Gas - Market slowly moves toward our $8.50 target we mentioned a couple of weeks back.  We are looking to sell here but not yet.  Hang on for a bit longer.

Dow -  We are long a little thinking 12,200 in the near future.  The market is accepting this range and may extend itself higher near term.

Wednesday October 18th -

Corn - On of those days where the market goes lower but really does not give us a downward push.  We put the low of the day in very early and then traded above that low the rest of the day.  Wheat went lower and closed setup to move lower again tomorrow (see below) but there is no real news to get the corn bulls to move into the sell column.  A move under today's low will bring about another round of selling and maybe allow for a test of $3.10.  Tomorrow's export sales numbers will be watch closely as well.

We are happy where we are on what we have sold (75%) of fourth quarter sales but will give the market some time here.  If you want new fundamentals to talk about, you are going to be in short supply near term.  There is little to add to the current picture and what we see is the market trading more technically near term.  It always amazes me when people say they don't watch technical indicators because they are fundamental traders.  To me, there are so many technical trades that it becomes part of fundamental picture.  A move under $3.10 near term may be an indication that the market has put in a top for awhile and will look for major support to build another short term sideways base. 

Soybeans - Market continues to rally.  The rice in price is technical in nature according to pit sources.  We still have no reason to sell.  

Wheat - Market lost another 17 cents today so our sales are looking pretty good; however, do not get too excited as the market can still rally a good bit while the market puts in this top IF it is indeed the top.  In any event, we have sold 75% of fourth quarter sales and are not believing this thing will go straight down.  We could easily get another surge back into the $5.35 to $5.45 level.  If we start to see more acres going in the ground, it will be hard for the market to make new highs until we get a weather scare but that will come after the end of the year.  Stay in close contact with us as we look for a place to add to sales or maybe buy some "Puts". 

One more thing...the chart is very bearish after the close today and is showing the possibility of a major sell off.  A move below $5.05 is very bearish.  We hope we get another look at a rally to price in the final 4th quarter sale.

Rice - WMP up 11 cents and the market rallied with that number up 10 cents on light volume.  No reason to own it here either but that could change.  We like rice long term and continue to store 100%. 

Cattle - A little higher but no change in our advice.  We are long in the field and have no futures positions right now. 

Natural Gas - Higher today as the market is looking more and more like it needs to rally.  Cold weather can get a grip quickly but the fundamentals look bearish and some bears are holding on.  I still see a possible move toward $8.50 in December.  No hedges for fertilizer or gas are recommend right here as we see the fundamentals too bearish to allow for the risk of a long futures play for fertilizer right here. 

Dow -  Big numbers the next couple of days.  Market will get a little more volatile as we digest their meaning.

Tuesday October 17th -

Corn - Where do I start???   We started this morning by saying the market was going to gap higher and this is a perfect situation for an exhaustion gap.  We then said at Mid-day (10:45) if the market went down on the day, sell another 25% in corn and wheat in the cash market and still I wanted no short futures positions.  The market went down on the day at 11:00 or just 15 minutes later and then rallied back to up about 2 or 3 for most of the rest of the day until inching higher again around 12:45.  I must assume none of you got our recommendation fast enough to do it but then again, I must also assume some of you did.  What now???

I felt strongly that the gap was not going to hold this morning but I also felt the market could hold most of the day and then sell off late.  That was what I was planning for when I wrote my recommendations; however, that isn't what happened.  Yes wheat reversed and frankly, I think you can put a fort in it, but corn is going to die hard and now the market closed the morning gap and finished higher....well, we could go even higher.  Now you know why I am not wanting to sell futures...until we know!!!   Oh the life of a futures trader!!!!

If you didn't sell anything today, good...tomorrow, place an order with your cash broker to sell another 25% at $3.16 in the December futures.  This is cash only...futures traders, be patient.  I said last Friday, I felt the odds were high we would make a high this week.  Nothing has changed and with wheat down again today with another reversal, corn is going to need some major help staying at this level near term. 

Soybeans - Another strong day as concern for weather delays helps the market...ya'll right!!!  In my opinion, the beans are up strictly for what is happening in corn and wheat and when the dust settle, beans will have a hard time holding on to these levels.  Even so, I have no reason to sell it yet so go baby go!!!  The higher it goes, the more it has to fall and it will fall. 

Wheat - Good news and bad news for the bears...First, we took out the high of last weeks hook reversal down.  Now the bad news, we put in another hook reversal down off of a bull trap.  I said last week that the markets would top hard but this is ridiculous. 

Cash marketers should have gotten another 25% sold on wheat they MUST sell in the 4th quarter.  While I like wheat longer term, near term the risk is now to the downside.  A move under $5.05 will spell disaster for the bullish charts and send us on a major correction.  Frankly, we may not be able to get below that level but there is a chance we test it near term.

Futures traders, we did the same thing on this hook reversal we did last week.  We have gone home short but again, just like last week, if the market does not sell off tomorrow and there is follow through to today's selling, then we will come right back out.     

Rice - Interesting day.  Market rallied strong early but then came all the way back down and finished up only 2 cents after being up 18 cents.  While I don't see a lot of risk to the downside here, we are trying to roll November to Jan and have a good "leg" trade going being out of November and looking to buy Jan.  We will be monitoring it again tomorrow to see if the market can work into the $9.60 level.  Cash is very strong here in Texas and traders who can sell for $4.00 and buy futures, should be doing that on anything they can.  $3.50 is not that great yet as when you look at March futures, that is just an even basis.  Now if we can break another 20 cents,  the basis plus storage savings starts to add up and we'll have to take a hard look at that.  Even so, I think there could be some wild basis plays later this year so I am not jumping on my "roll to futures" platform just yet. 

Cattle - Very quiet day...I still see it lower but under controlled selling. 

Natural Gas - A reversal down day today which is not a surprise and it may not be the end to the buying either.  We will see some bounces and maybe a push toward the $8.50 level in December.  We may trade a little more sideways in the process too as things slow down and both the bulls and bears getting burned when they push the market to extremes.

Dow -  A nice break today but probably a buying opportunity.  We still think it will move toward 12,200.

Monday October 16th -

Corn - Another wild day.  One thing that is interesting and usually tale telling is that the daily trading sell signals all failed today while the buy signals worked.  That says the market goes up easier than it goes down.  Nothing more to read into that as the market closed only 2 cents higher but my guess is we get one more push before we probably roll back over and test $3.00 in December.  Remember, July corn is $3.34 and it is only October.  The funds are long 300,00 contracts (my guess).   When we do get a correction, it could be pretty bloody especially if there is any bearish news with it.

The cash report this morning may be the first signs that foreign buyers have got enough bought for now.  We will be watching this weeks sales numbers closely; however, over the next few days, one more push toward the $3.35 level in December is not out of the question.  The real question will be, what do we do with it then???

We are 50% sold on only that corn we are selling in the fourth quarter and we are 100% long on the rest of the 2006 crop.  So far so good but we know that there are some tough times ahead and patience is going to be required.  For now, do not be short...it isn't working...YET!!!

Soybeans - $6.00 November is going to be tough to hold but the market is not selling off as the corn and wheat plow on ahead.  We will wait for corn to look like it has made an intermediate top and then we will be selling the beans.  AT this level, are we buying more Brazilian beans???

Wheat - A huge short covering rally at the close sent wheat from unchanged to up 15 cents in just a couple of minutes.  Even so, we are still 12 cents from the high and wheat is under the control of the hook reversal of last week.  A move over $5.50 may bring in extreme buying if it happens.  As I said Friday, the market is finding willing buyers on dips and we are not ready to take on the short side of the market.  Don't be short is still the best attitude. 

Rice - The market collapsed today losing 24 cents on the day.  We pulled back to 20% last week and in many cases went to the sideline as we were afraid this might happen.  For now, we are not so anxious to run back in and would recommend a wait and see attitude on moving into January.  While we are long term bullish, this is the rice market and it is known for its unrealistic moves.  We will let it find support before we re-enter.  Picking bottoms can be expensive.

Cattle - Lower today pretty much as we said on Friday...no collapse just weakness. 

Natural Gas - A huge move higher today.  Probably this was over cooler forecasts but there isn't a big cold blast coming yet so this move up is just profit taking and will find sellers higher who are looking for buyers anyway.  The rally could last a bit longer with $8.50 December not out of the question. 

Dow -  Very slowly churning higher.  12,200 is our target and a break should be bought unless something major breaks in the news arena.

Friday October 13th -

Corn - Check farmers page for recommendations on cash corn sales....

Corn started higher out of the gate on huge export sales numbers.  The buying continued and we ended with a modified trend-day higher.  This is a sign of an expansion market with PB at 87% and a warning of an eminent top.  It should happen next week...  How's that for sticking my neck out.  This is the second day of the PB over 80% and usually a market will top within 7 days of the first tick over 80%.  Even so, we knew from the opening this morning the market was failing to confirm the top in wheat and corn would go higher.  We covered all spec shorts and even went long for a quick day trade but at the close, we are back slick in the spec account.  We stand by our advice to be sold on 50% of 4th quarter corn sales.  This is cash corn that must be sold here in the fourth quarter.  Other wise you should stay long 100% cash expecting even higher prices longer term.  We need a few days of consolidation as this market is warring out a lot of traders.  Look for corn to remain volatile the next several weeks.  

Soybeans - Beans are up on corn and that's it.  Corn may be able to pull some acres away from beans longer term but there are still wheat/bean combinations to consider.  We want to sell beans if corn puts in a short term top but we will be patient.

Wheat - Well...there is good news and bad news.  First the good news, the market failed to take out the $5.05 level and confirm a short term top.  Now the bad news, the market closed inside yesterday's trading range and sold off again going into the close even though it was up on the day.  In general, this was a nothing day neither confirming or destroying the hook reversal down from yesterday.   Technically, we see a chance of some consolidation and a short term top but fundamentals are very hyped up right now and selling is going to find ready buyers for a while as well. 

Rice - We sold down to a 20% position in November and the market moved a little lower today but it certainly was a slow day.  Export sales numbers published today were the lowest for the year and probably the lowest for this time of year I have seen.  Cancellations were heavy as the EU cancels sales due to the GMO issue.  Long term this is a buy buy near term there could be more down especially of the other grains start to roll over or at least pause on their upward climb. 

Cattle - We rallied back to close mixed on the day after being lower earlier on the day.  Nothing new to report as I see the market lower but not in a collapsing manner.  We will sell rallies. 

Natural Gas - A little lower but nothing to write home about.  Rallies still should be sold unless something big starts to affect other energy markets.

Dow -  Still looks higher to me.  The market paused today but found no major selling.  Looks like a run to 12,200 is likely. 

Thursday October 11th - Here we go....

Corn - Check farmers page for recommendations on cash corn sales.... <<< Recommended today

OK...the report is in and its bullish but guys...it is not this bullish!!!  We recommended sales in corn today and if you followed our advice at worst you have sold 50% of what you must sell between now and Jan 1st with 30% sold Tuesday or Wednesday and another 20% sold today at limit up.  This puts you still long 50% and we will sell it fairly soon if this exhaustion rally fails.  For the first time in weeks...we are actually short the futures tonight.  (Selling futures to cover cash sales which makes sense for us in a commercial warehouse.)   We also sold the spec account short at limit up today and own in tonight.  We may take some heat tomorrow but look at wheat!!!

Lets Talk:  Wheat today made a massive hook reversal down closing off its high by 35 cents...35 CENTS!!!  If it takes out yesterday's low ($5.05 in Dec.), this is going to get ugly.  Now ask yourself the question, why is corn up 62 cents since September 12th's report???  Is it because of the change in the government report of 225 million bushels???  Well yes in part but the main reason is WHEAT!!!  The rally in wheat has dragged the corn with it.  If wheat is putting in a top (bullish report with topping formation), then how will corn hold up???  Answer is it won't!!!

From a technical perspective tomorrow could be disastrous for corn.  If we open lower and never get higher than today's low...corn will look like a major intermediate top.  That means a top that could last 6 to 10 weeks.  If on the other hand we drop to near Yesterday's high and then reverse, we could have the makings of another 30 cent rally in corn.  Why I don't know but I will bow to the wisdom of the charts.  I doubt it happens but I have been wrong before so I will let the computer trade for me near term.  It has done a heck of a job so far!!! By the way, PB is at 86% tonight which is almost unheard of in corn so a break from here becomes extremely likely. 

Bottom Line:  There is too much risk in this market and while longer term we still see it higher, odds favor a pull back here so we took some of our risk (50%) off of the table.  We will add to that on must sales if things head south in a hurry!!! 

Soybeans - Report was considered friendly.  The carry-over was increased...yes I said increased...by less than they expected!!!  OK guys, who wants to buy a bridge in Jackson County???  Good grief!!!  The only think helping beans is corn and wheat and if they show signs of a top...beans will follow.  We have not sold anything here for those storing.  We have made some recommendations on playing the LDP.  We may have some sales recommendations tomorrow if you must sell prior to Jan 1st. 

Wheat - TODAY WAS A MASSIVE HOOK REVERSAL DOWN!!!

With a bullish report the market reversed today.  We went short as the market went down on the day and held those positions through the close.  A move under $5.05 will bring in some heavy selling.  It will take a close back over yesterday's close for us to think we have more upside near term.  This looks like, acts like, and even sounds like...a top!!!  We are still only sold at 50% of fourth quarter sales.  If you must sell in the fourth quarter...we would get to 50% NOW!!!  Yes, we could be wrong, but the odds are not in the bulls favor after today.  Remember, the USDA dropped ending stocks in Wheat to 25 year lows!!!  And the market closed down!!!!  Long term we like...near term we could see some profit taking and the late comers in margin troubles.

Rice - We made recommendations today to lighten up and the action, while not extremely bearish, was not that pretty.  We recommended November longs sell down to 20% and prepare to buy January.  While we do not see a huge break here, the action in the other grains could give us a chance to roll into Jan at well below the offered spread margin (30 cents).  We'll see.  No I am not short and I will not be short here.  A surprise in rice will be bullish not bearish at this stage.  No cash sales are recommended either.

Cattle - Cattle rallied today with short covering in light of the higher grain prices.  Yes, sometimes the market looks at higher prices in the supply market and it becomes a positive factor.  For instance, higher fertilizer prices can be bearish corn or bullish depending on the supply curve for corn.  Today's action maybe indicating that prices will need to stay higher so feeders will supply enough cattle.  A break tomorrow in corn and bean prices would then be bearish here.  Nothing new for us.  We expect lower prices after this bounce.

Natural Gas - Market turned decidedly lower today but our short term indicators are screaming to take profits if you are short.  No long positions are recommended here yet. 

Dow -  New all time highs today.  No reason for this to change.,  We are long the Dow futures and expect a steady gain near term. 

Wednesday October 11th - Read last night...due to schedule, short one tonight.

Corn - We recommended selling some corn today in front of the report.  This is corn that you know you will not store past Jan 1st.  Otherwise, stay long in the bins and cash if your still harvesting.  Report tomorrow should cut carryover.  

Wheat - Limit up today but what about tomorrow??  If report is bearish look out; however, be quick to see that a higher open after the report and then a lower move on the day could signal massive long liquidation.  We are not ready to pull trigger but may have to.

Rice - We will wait on numbers.

Tuesday October 10th - Long one tonight

Corn - Check farmers page for recommendations on cash corn sales....

We wrote in our morning comments that wheat would not hold at limit up today and corn would sell off as a result.  I guess that was an understatement as corn came under pressure from the "perfect storm" scenario for a Tuesday, two days before a major supply and demand report.

First, we do have a USDA report Thursday that will not be bearish but in any event, would have trouble supporting $2.90 corn unless there is a big surprise.  This was cause enough for massive long liquidation as profit taking in front of the report was reported as "huge".  The key factor here is that buyers didn't want to own the market in front of the report so there was no one stepping up to stop the slide.

Second, corn was up 18 cents yesterday on wheat being up 30 cents.  When wheat couldn't hold the limit-up move this morning, corn was bound to retreat toward its own support line which is down at $2.72 in December on the short term charts and $2.56 on the longer-term charts.   $2.64 is where we want to buy more ourselves so we weren't buying it either.  (Tomorrow might be a different story.)

Third, the technical's were way over-bought and indicated a test of buying which by all accounts was 18 cents lower.  We cautioned yesterday that a PB over 80% indicates odds of 90% that a top would be made (correction occur) with in the next 7 days.  It only took one day this time.  And yes, the correction today counts as OB dropped back under 80%; however, if that indicator goes right back over 80% in the next 5 days, the market will enter an expansion phase.  I don't think that will happen based on my comments which follow but it is something to keep in mind. 

Four, this afternoon's crop harvest report will not be over 40% so there is still crop sales to be made.  I figure some farmers were pulling the trigger today and I know that's true as some farmers sold cash corn to us today.  With that kind of selling still likely ahead, it will be hard to keep a strong rally going unless the weather starts to interfere and spread out the harvest. 

All four of these events on the same day meant reluctant buyers and a sharply lower day.  But today is behind us and now we look around and ask..."What is the risk in December corn??"  Last night I would have said 20 cents...well we took 14 of that today so my guess is 6 to 10 cents down from here.  What is the risk to the upside?  It ain't no stinking 10 cents...Try 30 to 50 cents up in the March contract. 

All in all, nothing new here and I doubt there is a lot of trading tomorrow as most people did what they had to today.   If I had to buy tomorrow or be shot it would be at $2.72 and if I had to sell tomorrow...I probably would say..."shoot me!!!"  OK...you probably want an answer...it would be $2.85 in December.  You are probably safe on both counts.

Soybeans -

Well we tried.  While I did sell the Nov $6.00 call yesterday for 4 cents and have a whole 2 cent profit (Whoopee), the market didn't give us a chance at selling Jan calls.  We'll hold those recommendations for now but it may not happen for a while if ever.  We are still a major bear in beans and want to sell any rallies we can get.  We should have an LDP again tonight so we'll see if we can get a big pop day to do just that. 

Wheat - Well, most people will look at today and say it was negative...I'm not one of them.  This market showed some power today as it stayed up on the day with incredible selling on the day.  I went home long the spec account but only at the 10% level.  We still see it higher longer term and this market is setup for expansion.  PB is at 82% tonight so a move back under today's low is possible but on breaks we need to own it.  Weather market can be very fickle and end very quickly so remember, there is a 40 cent risk in trading this market and don't get over exposed on your margin.

Rice - This was not what we wanted to see.  Last night I said I wanted some follow through and this was anything but that; however, in one day we pretty well corrected the wheat buying of the last two days.  $9.60 is still support in our book and there remains a 30 cent down draft. 

Here are my Mid-day comments and they still hold..."Down 15 cents is as good a place as any to buy if you are trying to catch this move.  The big rice traders (mills) have got a lot of problems and acres are going to be one of them if corn and wheat can sustain this move.  Long term...they will either buy rice acres or dread the day they didn't.  Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if they don't buy the acres...some of them are very arrogant and could give Sampson a run for his money.  We still see a 40 cent down risk at this point".   We finished 10 cents lower than when this was written so thus the 30 cent risk factor from here.

Cattle - You would have thought with feed prices lower that cattle would be higher...nope!!!  We still see 83-84 Dec cattle futures with some bounces along the way.  This is no time to be long feeder cattle "pens" for fat cattle sales.  Look for some better pair prices to improve pasture inventory if you have the room.

Natural Gas - No sell off today as the market finished up a bit.  We see the market lower and higher and in any order.  In other words...don't have a clue.  Well...that is not entirely accurate!!!   The trend is down bu the daily indicators are long (we aren't) and showing that a rally is underway and could continue for another 50 cents higher.  Longer term, we want to sell it for a lower move into the heart of winter and then...well, we'll see.

Dow -  How many of these days are we going to have.  Another consolidation day.  Technically, this is bullish with market acceptance of this level but there needs to be one more push toward higher levels that gets some of the money on the sidelines back into the market.  We still see it higher but a break under 11,860 would indicate a bigger correction.

Monday October 9th - ...WHOA BUDDY.....

Corn - Check farmers page for recommendations on cash corn sales....

Market touched limit up today (20 cents higher) as wheat exploded from the get go.  We remain 33% long but are starting to look at locking in some of this profit.  In all honesty, it will probably be tonight or tomorrow on futures as we can see our target hit.  Wednesday is the US government report but most people now think it will be bullish.  I can't think it will be bearish but I think the market has a lot of the bullishness in it at this level.  Our upside target has been and remains $2.95 and that could well be hit tonight or first thing in the morning.   PB is at 81% which is a warning of a top in the next 5 to 7 trading days.  That is the longest we usually see PB over 80% (90% odds a top in the next 7 days.)  Cash marketers should hold for now as basis remains strong for now (read below). 

Remember, corn farmers are notorious for selling after the market tops.  This top could be quick and swift with a good pull back before a winter spring rally to buy in more acres.  We are looking for a top but again...DO NOT BE SHORT THIS MARKET!!!  I don't mind selling it a little early but I will not trade this from the short side as that is a quick way into the poor house.

One more thing, we will need to be watching basis levels tomorrow as a pull back becomes likely given the current harvest situation.  Here in the south, there has been no change of the basis after the close but cash traders are only trading basis after the market closed and not doing any flat pricing.  That indicates a feeling that prices in corn are overdone and should pull back. 

Soybeans - Beans rallied today totally based on what is going on in wheat.  The calls may be a good place to start thinking of doing some selling.  We want to sell the Jan 6.40 call at 10 cents on 20% of your STORED position.   Here in the south, I do not recommend storing beans so this is a "northern" trade.  We are trying to add a little to our basic loan-LDP plan. Today the market went over the loan level so there is no LDP.  We expect it will be back and pretty soon.  So...we want to get a head start by selling the $6.40 call.  If you have the guts, we don't mind selling the $6.20 call for 15 cents either.  For now, we would stay away from the $6.00 call.

Farmers get ready, we will want to sell some futures with the market now over loan.  Remember, we see the market as good for now but in the next few weeks, things will change for the corn and the wheat and a break will be felt really bad in the beans.  

Wheat - So much for a correction.  Market exploded to limit bid as Australia's wheat crop is getting pounded by dry weather.  El Nino is at it again.  We are long 100% in the cash market and looking for a place to do some selling.  PB tonight is at 79% with a gap tonight expected as high as 15 cents.  That will put us over 80% and start warning of us that a there is a very high probability of a top in the next five trading sessions. 

For the whole story, that top doesn't have to be THE top as markets can go into expansion but expansion only occurs after a short term top followed by another push into new highs.  In other words, this move would have a correction that many feel like is a top and then the market explodes back to make new highs.  (Similar to what happened last week). This is a classic situation with weather being the culprit and the buyers of wheat are not used to being in a sellers market.  They had better get used to it as this situation is extremely explosive.   

Rice - Market action looks good today but I would like to see some follow through to the upside.  We had a lot of help from the wheat and some traders were looking for anything to buy and rice was not moving at all.  The situation here is also explosive long term as there is going to be some soul searching by rice farmers as to what they should plant.  $5.00 wheat may start to get some attention with rice under $10.00.  Corn is also going to get a hard look as it moves toward $3.50 in the new crop.  It is not that the fundamentals on rice is that bullish right here but the outside markets are not going to let there be much risk in being long rice at this level or back to $9.60 in the November. 

For you guys wanting to buy more rice, this move allows us some breathing room on our margin requirements which, by the way, have just gone up.  We will continue to protect ourselves near term to a 40 cent pull back. 

Cattle - With feed costs soaring, cattle collapsed under heavy selling pr3essure.  As we said last week, the trend is down and $83.00 become the target for December near term.  The fundamentals are turning bearish and we need to work through some of the back log of cattle.  This is the time to hold cattle in the filed not in the feed yard. 

Natural Gas - The market reversed today after an early morning spike.  If we move lower tomorrow, we should test the lows.  The market went short November at $6.55.  There needs to be some follow through to the downside or we could see another round of heavy short covering.

Dow -  Another consolidation day...we are still long the mini as it looks like there is still higher prices ahead.

Friday October 6th - No reason to change early comments...they stand as written...

Corn - Back and forth day today as volatility is certainly picking up.  With harvest dead ahead for corn, we are looking for a healthy break but not until harvest is close to 50% which gives us another week or so for the market to test highs.

Soybeans - This bounce should be sold but no sell signal yet...

Wheat - Correction phase is underway and we still see higher prices but the action yesterday and today is certainly indicative of a top.  We liked the day's action all in all as we rejected the lows and the reversal from yesterday was met with buying on the whole today. 

Rice - No action here at all as the market broke back a bit...again, we can see this one lower in the weeks ahead but longer term we see the market still higher. 

Cattle - Market broke from the start today so there was no reversal action.  The trade was slow today so I don't want to draw a lot from it but remember the market should be in a down trend here.  We want to sell a good rally and there is still a chance. 

Natural Gas - We broke early but the market found a stream of buyers and turned higher.  This correction does not appear to be over just yet.

Dow -  Consolidation day...we will go home long the mini as it looks like there is still higher prices.

Thursday October 5th -

Corn - As expected, today was not a trend day and it finished as a consolidation day; however, the action in wheat (see below) was negative with a total collapse at the close after being over 20 cents higher.  This is a classic type of top formation so spill over selling from the wheat to the corn could erode some of the gains we have made over the past week.  We want to own a break and long term think it is a buy; however, once we get to 60% harvested, we see some downside risk here and if you have to sell corn before the end of the year, we could have some recommendations for you in that regard.  Tomorrow will be a big day.  A pull back to $2.60 in December is possible if wheat has a sharp break.

Soybeans - Still higher as we see short covering.  Beans didn't break with wheat at the close so we could have some downside pressure in the beans near term if wheat sells off more tomorrow.  This rally MUST be sold.  Weather can affect the market near term but all forecasts are looking better for harvest conditions. Tomorrow, we may sell some calls early to start looking for a short here but we will give the market some time to digest the collapse in wheat.

Wheat - WOW!!!  Ok...here's the deal.  Today was a day to sell.  My gosh, we had 30 cents made in less than 24 hours and when that happens, even with the bullish fundamentals...by gosh you sell.  So the 20% in the futures account we bought yesterday...we sold today and there for awhile I was getting ready to tell you that was probably a dumb thing to do, but WOW!!!  The market collapsed at the close under extremely heavy selling and a lack of strong buyers.  This is a classic top formation and it could spread over to the other grains near term.  Again, we will let the dust settle before selling cash.  Right now, we want no futures, only 100% long cash in wheat and also a good strong seat belt!!! 

Rice - Finished a little lower with good selling overhead.  We could see a 10 to 30 cent pull back here as there appears to be no updraft from the other grains working sharply higher, small indicators that the EU will remain out of the US long grain market near term, and export numbers remaining low; however, sales were good this morning including Iraq.  We remain 60% long in futures wanting to buy a break.  A move under $9.63 will push me back to 50% long for a possible test of $9.45 to $9.50.  The rally point for this market is in the winter months so near term, the market can be jerked around a bit.

Cattle - As I said last night we need to rally to see where the sellers are and that is what happened today.  We rallied to $90.30 (Dec) and didn't find the sellers.  I think they are still $1.00 higher.  I know that is where we will look to start selling.

Natural Gas - More upside today as the shorts are caught in a rally they don't believe should be happening.  That is usually an indicator that the market is going to keep going higher to find where the quality sellers are. 

Dow -  This is the only market that consolidated today...well, that we watch anyway!!!  Look for higher prices dead ahead.

Wednesday October 4th -

Corn - OK...If you read our morning comments we said we were setup for a trend day.  The market started lower and made a new low for the day at 10:35 which should have brought in more selling.  It didn't and the market failed to the downside...we bought it right then as every indication we had told us we should be going lower and the fact that the sellers were gone and buyers were stepping up told me "buy it".  We did!!!  The market then staged a powerful trend day up and finished 10 cents higher on the day.  Wheat did exactly the same thing finishing a whopping 25 cents higher if a very fast market.  This is why we have cautioned from being short any corn in the futures.  We didn't want to sell it if we had gotten a trend-day down...in all cases we wanted to own it.  We will sit long here for now at 33% and of course long 100% of the cash corn in the bins.  Weather is being talked about as a factor slowing down harvest.  I doubt it will be a big problem but it will slow down the flow of corn into the pipeline and buyers were really needing that input of new corn.   We will buy more on a break.  Hopefully one like we got the last two days that turned giving such great buy signals.  DO NOT SELL ANYTHING YET.  Farmers...don't even think of selling unless you have no choice and by that I mean, it's the wife or sell corn!!! 

Soybeans - Higher here as well reversing from early lows but here is a case where we want to sell a good rally.  We'll let the dust settle first.

Wheat - We bought the wheat today as well in futures as the market exploded past early sell signals and finished sharply higher.  I see Dec wheat at $4.95 so we have a way to go but the path will not be as easy from here on out.  I think the market told us that today with the sharp break from new highs with about 15 minutes to go.  Someone sold a lot of wheat in there and the rally at the close may have been major short covering.  Same as beans, I want to let the dust settle from this move and we will buy more when it makes head sense not heart sense.

Rice - Higher but not near as volatile as wheat and corn.  $9.90 is major resistance and harvest is still underway in the main rice belt.  Pull backs remain possible with a close over $9.90 indicating the final push to our current target of $10.25.  We remain 60% long in futures.  

Cattle - A little lower here with solid sell signals but not much selling.  We may need to rally a bit and see where the sellers are.

Natural Gas - Read last night and low and behold, we got a strong rally today on absolutely nothing.  We sold Gas on a day trade today and lost money on it as the market was very strong compared to what it usually does.  Of course, the market work lower at the close but we had already had enough of the short side and had gotten out...oh well, the grains more then made up for that.  Anyway, we'll watch for a sell signal which we didn't get at the close.

Dow -  Same thing as last night...steady buying with no selling in site.  New all time highs will hold for awhile and look for 12,200 by the end of October; however, remember, this is October and major breaks are found during this month. 

Tuesday October 3rd -

Corn - Finally...a correction.  The computer has been say for days we need a correction and that has occurred today.  usually a correction will have at least one trend day down in it and today was NOT a trend day of any kind.  So maybe we get a little more downside from here.  In any event we want to own this break and hope its below $2.60 in the Dec. Also, the move higher, if it stalls here, could allow for a several week sideways to lower consolidation but it doesn't have to.

Soybeans - Nothing new here. We see no reason to own it.

Wheat - Like corn, we have been warning that a correction was due and today certainly qualifies.  From here, we can see a further pull back but it certainly doesn't have to.  A move back over Monday's close will push us to buy 20% of our base position for long hedgers.

Rice - Up a couple today in front of the WMP.  Cash is still higher than the nearby futures which may not let the futures break at all.  Risk is 30 cents down from here near term but with the harvest still underway in the main areas a higher price from this range could be weeks away.  It is a tough call so we will continue to hold our 60% long position and hope to buy a correction if it happens.. 

Cattle - The markets rally point failed today as we saw heavy selling.  The market is firmly now in a down trend...we sold going into the close and will be short here on our first 20% to 40% (40% for us). 

Natural Gas - The herd mentality continues in Gas as we saw the market work low today but not in a disastrous sell off.  We want to sell a rally here and still think we will get an irrational knee jerk reaction to some event in the future which will give us that chance.

Dow -  Still in rally mode with steady buying leading the way.

Monday October 2nd -

Corn - This move is strong and as of now there is no sign of a top.  We are not that overbought and still we are 17 cents below the July highs.  No sales of cash are recommended unless you can but back futures as you confirm the sale.  Basis remains strong and I don't think there is much risk to a lower basis near term.  We are in buy mode on a correction as we must protect our margin capital.

Soybeans - Continuing to struggle.  No reason to own it. 

Wheat - Read our comments Friday and you'll see we had a reversal that didn't have any follow through to the downside today.  A correction remains possible here but there is still more room to the upside.  We will start to sell some inventory but for now the risk, while growing, remains to the sellers in the market not the owners.  We will buy a correction.

Rice - No change in position.  We see a risk of 30 to 40 cents from here and will not add to our current long positions just yet. 

Cattle - The hook reversal up from Friday continued today and the market rallied above its recent resistance.  We will start to lay off some risk as we cross the 91.50 level in the Dec cattle contract and if we can get to 92.50, we will sell some more.

Natural Gas - The bounce continued today and looks like there may be some more buying over the near term; however, a good bounce should be sold.  We are watching the market on a 30 minute basis and will probably short it if we get sell signals.  Crude oil needs to bounce as well to help this market get much of rally going.

Dow -  Not much happening here but that is bullish as the market likes where it is.  Look for another push higher near term.