Progressive Futures -- Update

Monday June 30th -

Corn - July failed to close under the major support line and with concerns for the crop condition report coming out Monday, the market rallied sharply finishing up 17 cents. We are still short the July 630 calls and tried to sell $5.40 Puts but didn't get our price unfortunately. For now we will go through the reports on Monday and take another look at things then.

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE - The current trend is still sideways in a coil formation. The action this past week is still supportive of base for higher prices with weather and crop conditions. Breaks should be bought but at the same time, we will be selling heavily on a weather scare bounce. Also the June S&D report will be a huge set of numbers as we focus in on planted acres.

Wheat – Higher with the outside markets being so firm. Harvest is closing in and most of the pre-harvest selling should be complete. We are starting to own back some wheat. I have sold July $7.30 Puts on 25% of my buy back. That is going to be where we start the owning back given the Big Picture.

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE - The trend is still down but the chart is showing the formation of a saucer bottom. This is where the market slowly turns sideways and the slowly starts higher and looks like a coffee cup saucer from a side view. Seasonal tendencies will support a higher move once the harvest begins. Farmers will be slow to sell much lower because of rising costs and harvest is going to be expensive.

Beans –Argentina was part of the issue today but it was more about delays getting beans planted as weather continues to force farmers to "Mud in" the 2008 crop. We are not trading here as a good bounce later this year is likely and there is just too much outside factors to worry with. We have no selling recommendations and remain long 100% of the crop in the field.

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE - The chart continues to show a coil formation which is not bullish or bearish. It is just a setup indicating a good move is coming. Based on seasonal tendencies, the bearish side of the seasonal is over and we are in a supply driven weather setup which would be bullish. Even so, the weather is not setup for a dramatic move just yet. Longer term traders will need to worry about it turning from too wet to too dry, too quickly.

Rice – Let me try and write about this in a quick nutshell. Yesterday's Key Reversal up needed follow through and as the day wore on Friday, it certainly looked like we were not going to get any. The low for the day came at 12:45 in the July but then the selling pressure was overrun by commercial buying again. The market rallied 48 cents in the final 30 minutes to finish 28 higher and provided the technical buy signal of follow through buying. The market shows no sign of the buyers being through at this level. We will look to see how the market trades next week in that $19.60 level basis July; however, we want to sell this rally based on the Big Picture in this market.

This past week we recommended selling as much cash as you could replace with futures. We did 90% of our first crop projection. Right now we have bought enough futures back to be about 30% sold at $19.00 and have a nice little profit in the futures on the 60% we are long. As the market approaches $19.60 I will get back to 50% sold by selling some futures. Margin requirements are going to be a major factor as we do this trade but our long term objective for this years harvest to have 100% of the rice sold at harvest and with the action this week we are in a very positive basis situation looking for higher prices to price in more of the crop.

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE - The trend is firmly down but has fallen right into the major support level of $17.80 to $19.00. Yes, it is a large range for a support zone. The volume traded on Wednesday and Thursday of this past week shows heavy support buying and would indicate a rally to find resistance. The trend line is $2.00 higher as is most of the major resistance. The gap is closed at $19.60 which we think should happen. A close over this level will setup a push to find resistance.

Cotton- Still out waiting for more news. Nothing has changed for us...longer term we want to own it but not now.

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE - The trend is down. December is against oversold limits but the market trend system is pointing to new a leg down. The action this past week took the market below the January lows so we are now lower than at any time this year. Longer term we want to own it and will be looking for the next major buy signal to start.

Natural Gas – Up 30 cents after the 50 cent break yesterday. Another big volume day and again, this type of action occurs at a major top. While I think we have made one, there is a lot of people who obviously have not signed up for this service. :-) Next week will be interesting. If we take out Thursday low, we could accelerate lower; however, before we get too bearish, make sure you read the Big Picture below.

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE - The major trend is up and has been since January. Fundamentals are more bullish than they have been in several years, well actually since the Katrina event. The technical action this past week is bearish but the trend is holding. We need to see if we are making a top here and then re-examine the longer term picture. Let me say two words that should scare the shorts in this market to death...HURRICANE SEASON!!!

Crude Oil - Special comments.... A hook reversal up today as more and more people are concerned about $150.00 crude. After all, Boone Pickens has called for it by the end of the year if not the end of the summer. I don't necessarily disagree with him but the amount of speculation in this market is absurd and the profit taking could send this one down to unthinkable low levels...like $115.00.

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE - Trend is higher but challenging the uptrend with technical selling, volume and volatility. Longer term weather and demand from the world economy will shorten any major break here. Buying on good dips makes since in the Big Picture. .

Gold - After pushing over $900, we are back to $891 in the August. Looks like it is going sideways here.

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE - The downward trend line off of March's high was broken two weeks ago. The action this past week is supportive because the market after breaking the trend line has come back to sit right on that line and then rallied today. For now it looks sideways and on a dip should be bought over the next few months.

Dow -Down 7...No comments

Cattle – Up 95 as corn ran higher. I still like this one longer term.

FRIDAY'S BIG PICTURE - The trend is up but is showing some overbought conditions. We see cattle following the general feed grain complex higher and we also see the numbers as supportive right here. When you look at the range for cattle this year, it is only $10.50 and that is from the end of March to now. We have been saying that cattle will whip higher in a delayed fashion and that is what has happened. Its longer term price now rests on the fate of corn prices.

Thursday May 29th -

Corn - Big break today as Crude fell over $4.50. That put pressure on the corn and sent it into new lows. Last night I wrote that we were waiting to see how the market traded and then I said..."Seems we cannot get through support right here." WRONG!!! Today we broke lower taking out all support in a move that saw limit down at one point. I did write in the morning comments yesterday that if we broke support we could test $5.50 in July. Right now I am not sure that will happen or not. The reason is we didn't close below the major support level of $5.79 we have been talking about. We almost did but the market rallied 10 cents off the lows to close back in the trading range that we have been in for the last 6 weeks.

For now I will stay short the $6.30 Calls with buy orders at 2 cents to bring them in. No reason to trade for the very last $100 bucks when a major surprise on the June report could send the market to the top of the range and possibly into new highs. I will not be in any short position for that report unless I see a good reason. I may be long just using options but it will be light and it will be at safe levels.

Wheat – Couldn't hang with the corn down so hard. New lows for this move but the chart still looks like it has started building a saucer formation. Time will tell. We are still short the $7.30 Put at 17 cents and will just stay there for now.

Beans –Down hard as bean oil collapsed with crude oil. We are still not trading it.

Rice – WOW!!! Quite a day as rice went from down 70 to up $1.10 before falling to back lower on the day and then finishing up 40. In the night session it is up another 55 cents as I type this. Last night I wrote we could try and close the gap at $19.60 in the July. The high today...$19.55. No!!! That is not good enough. The gap remains and the market may still try and completely close that gap.

If you read last night's comments we talked about the reasons the market could bounce. There are more things to mention today. The volume was HUGE today with over 2000 contracts in July and 1100 contracts in September trading. Today was also a key reversal up so that too adds to the mix. The buyers today were the commercials and the cash bids are still holding.

So I am still wanting to sell a rally but near term I think the market is saying it needs to go higher. We will wait for a reason to sell futures for those of you have bought long positions covering cash. For you trying to buy futures...welcome to no man's land. The gap is just 20 cents away and major resistance is $1.30 away. If you go long, be prepared to take a hit on a break. Let me start saying right now...Rice has never made a "V" bottom that I have seen. So when we make lows like we did last night...odds favor that we will go back down there and test them in the next two weeks.

Cotton- Still out waiting for more news. Nothing has changed for us...longer term we want to own it but not now.

Natural Gas – BIG BREAK...Well we called this one but I must admit...WOW a 50 cent break??? Another test of $11.00 is possible but the volume today was HUGE at over 100,000 contracts in July. THAT IS HUGE!!!

We will let the market settle down after the move yesterday and see what the technical picture is before we start to do anything else.

Crude Oil - Special comments.... Big break today as the market has confirmed the top. We started saying Tuesday that you should not be buying large amount of fuel right here. Go to the minimum. Diesel was down over 14 cents today so some relief is on the way. I must admit, the report today was nit bearish but that is what we look for. Bullish news at the top of a move with a bearish response. I see more downside but there will be rallies that can be sold.

Gold - Nothing new here. The dollar is a little weaker but there is no push in it one way or the other. Longer term...I like the dollar for one reason. Bush will not be President and which ever candidate wins will want to strengthen the buck.

Dow -Up 52 with crude down $4.50. NOT GOOD!!!!

Cattle – Down 70 with corn pushing prices lower. I still like this one longer term.

Wednesday May 28th -

Corn - Down 11 at one time but we closed down about 5 or 6. Support is holding and we are tempted to sell some July Puts but we will wait and see how the market trades near term. Seems we cannot get through support right here.

Wheat – Unchanged to up a penny. The market tested its low which is at $7.40 and rallied 16 cents giving us more confidence that support is holding well. We remain short the $7.30 Puts and the bear calendar spread we recommended last night was put on during the break today at 5 cents.

Beans –Up as Argentina got the spot light again today. I will not trade it until this thing with Argentina is done but the market looks to be telling us with no strike, the market is too high. Acres here in the US is not a certain thing either so we will wait and see what we get.

Rice – Limit Down again today so the $1.15 limit will carry over to tomorrow. I doubt we are down $1.15 tomorrow. The market is set up for a bounce but it could still go another 60 to 70 cents lower before it does. We have made it clear that the best play is to sell cash and await to buy futures locking in a good basis and then selling the futures when the time is right.

Volume was high today even though we were locked limit down. 1528 contracts were traded in July with open interest down 229 contracts. This is the kind of day we talked about to signal the end is near for the down move. A lot of rice changed hands but the question is who bought the sellers? We won't know for a while.

I have been and remain bearish near term but am slowly getting to where I like the market for a rally. We will see how the market trades overnight and if it comes in higher at 6 AM, I think odds favor an attempt to close the Gap in July at $19.60. The 4 week moving average is the next resistance at $20.98 and the 9 week is up at $21.51 which is also where the down trend line is. All together, this gives us a good resistance point over the market.

One more thing. On April 24th when the high was made, the market was $5.09 HIGHER than the nine week moving average. Tonight it is $3.10 under it. The market usually balances a bull move with no more than an 80% flip across this average. That is $4.00 and given the current numbers it would indicate another 80 cents down possible but that will be stretching it. For instance in wheat. At the high we were $3.00 over the 9 week average and the most it has been under the average since then is $2.02. That was only a 67% rebalancing. Now remember, the market kept going down but not as fast once it hit the rebalance. In rice, the nine week average is still going up so we should find support between 60 cents to$1.00 lower very soon.

Cotton- Still out waiting for more news. Nothing has changed for us...longer term we want to own it but not now.

Natural Gas – Market rallied back over $12.00 but it has lost some punch and I wonder if the buyers today were sucker buyers. Those are specs who have wanted to own the market the whole way up and now after the break, see their chance. Don't get me wrong, they could be right but at the same time, there are indications that crude has topped. That needs to be watched along with the Nat Gas near term. I am not ready to say sell the pumps because this is going to be a long summer. For now, I can see a correction IF crude pulls back.

Crude Oil - Special comments.... Even with crude up over $2.00 today we are still $4.50 off the highs. I will say that market strength today was impressive with the second largest volume day for the July contract; however, the largest volume day was the day of the contract high and the hook reversal down made that day is still in control. I am looking at some calendar bear spreads here but need to see where the crude rally goes. The next few days are very important...

Dow -Up 45 and right near the highs. Don't like it.

Cattle – Up 32 and still no reason to do anything different. Trend is up but a correction is now possible as we head into over bought conditions.

Tuesday May 27th - If you are burning Diesel make sure you read our comments under Natural Gas

Corn - Down 2 in front of the Planting Progress report. The crop is 88% planted which is only 4% behind the 10 year average it is ahead of the 20 year average by 2 point. As I type this the market is down 7 and has been down over 10 in the overnight trade. Major support holds at $5.92 in July and $6.22 in March of 2009. I can still see it sideways here for a bit. We are short the 630 call with nice 20 cent profit in that position and will just stay where we are for now.

Wheat – Up 7 and holding above support at $7.40 We are short the 730 Put for now with a 2 cent loss in it and are looking to sell the $7.00 Put at 8 or better. A calendar spread would be to sell the 730 Put and buy the 720 Put at 5 cents or better to the sell side. Max loss 5 cents and max Gain 5 cents (less commission of course).

Beans –Hard day down but not on Argentina this time. This was on outside fundamentals. In this type of a market I would assume we would rally given the news flow from South America; however, crude oil which really took a bath today can keep a lot of pressure on the Bean Oil.

Rice – Strange day. Market open limit down but I think someone figured out the market limit of 50 cents was wrong and at 12:00 noon, the board changed the limit to the correct value of 75 cents. The market took seconds to fall to the 75 cents limit down level and as I type this at 11 PM on Tuesday night, the market is down another 90 cents with $1.15 limit now for the day. The spread of the old crop verses new crop is now at 49 cents and looks to go negative with the Nov gaining on September.

All support is now gone with the market pointing at $17.00 in July and probably the same for November. I understand ARI is still in at $18.50 with Nov now trading at $18.21. It doesn't take a math major to figure this out. The basis is saying to sell cash and when the time is right own futures. I am looking at $19.00 calls at some point but not now and not at this price.

Also, farmers need to remember their interest charges this year. If break even is now up to $13.00 and you are holding 9 months while paying 8% then we have a 78 cent interest charge. We would advise selling something at this level to get cash flow in early and stop interest. This so going to be a very expensive year so cut where you can. Even if you have to put up $3.00 in margin that is cheaper ten paying interest on $13.00.

Cotton- Still out waiting for more news.

Natural Gas – Down 26 cents today as Nat Gas sees the break in Crude and follows it lower. The crude looks to be topping and even better so does Diesel. Heating oil was down big today with a massive Key Reversal down. The next few days will be very important but we have several indicators pointing to a top. We recommend users of Diesel switch to buying the minimum right here until we get firm indications this is NOT the top. Odds favor at least a 20 cent correction over the next two weeks.

Gold - A massive reversal down today here as well. Right back to the 9 week moving average. This market is neutral so there is no major indication of a break or rally.

Dow -Up 68 with Crude down $4.50. What is wrong with this picture??? Looks lower to me.

Cattle – Up 10 and still no reason to do anything different. Trend is up but a correction is now possible as we head into over bought conditions.

Monday - Markets closed

Friday May 23rd

Corn - Up by 4 but it was a quiet day. Nothing new for us to say as we await more news about the size of this crop. We are in a full supply driven market for sure.

Wheat – Up 6 with a small hook reversal up. A rally next week with a higher close for the week would set up a bear trap. We think the timing is about right for a low. Look at selling the July $7.00 Put for a cheap trade.

Beans –Up over 40 today....want to guess why? Sure, the Argentina strike is back on...until Tuesday and they can get out of their long positions and go short...give me a break.

Rice – Limit down in old crop while limit up in new crop. We are still in that spread short with a huge profit now and we have sold 25% of our rice. Later this weekend I will write an opinion why you should think about selling your cash crop and buying futures if we get a break large enough next week.

Cotton- Still out waiting for more news.

Natural Gas – Closing in on $12.00 as I type this but I think it can move toward $13.00. Crude could be topping and that will be some headwind in the near future.

Gold - A little higher in quiet trade. We would buy breaks.

Dow -Down 135 as I type this. We could bounce from here especially if crude weakens even a little.

Cattle – Strong day again in cattle. We are now higher than when we go the bearish cattle report. Still looks higher to me.

Thursday May 22nd^-

General Comments - We are having server problems so this is a shortened update.

Crude oil reversed today sending the grains down with it. Corn sold off 10 with beans down 23 wheat down 31 and rice up 7. Rice had traded limit up in the morning so we were 43 cents off the highs. Remember Monday is a holiday so some traders are leaving early and today could have been a major evening up day by many participants.

We have no changes in our ideas. Time is on our side for now especially with the main growing and weather season ahead. For you energy guys, crude is probably not over just yet but the dollar is looking more and more like it is bottoming.

Wednesday May 21st^-

Corn - Corn ran up with crude oil exploding higher. We could easily test $6.15 in July tomorrow which is a 50% retracement on the recent break. Today's close is over the 9 week moving average so more technical buying is possible. PB will cross tomorrow if we can move over $6.15. We could march for new highs or we could turn lower. It is a hard call based on current information. We will hold where we are and wait for more news. My concern remains for the acreage report in the June WASDE report. We will let the market tell us what it thinks over the next few days.

Wheat – Down 6 and looking for more news. We remain out looking to own it at some point.

Beans –Up 18 on buying in bean oil. That was led by crude oil. The current rally there may over shadow anything in south America for the time being. If crude tops in the near term, we could get a hefty round of selling here.

Rice – Nice rally today and as I type this we are up another 33 cents in the night trade. Volume has really dried up here so a rally to find the selling is in order. We will look for a place to get to 50% sold on this rally but we will be patient. The cash news is supportive and it looks like some mills want some early coverage and will pay for it.

We covered all shorts when we sold cash and are now looking to replace shorts or to sell cash and buy futures if we get another break. The questions remains as to what happens when oil tops. The affect across all Ag commodities will be felt so look at crude right now for direction.

Cotton- Still out waiting for more news.

Natural Gas – Once again challenging $12.00 and I think odds favor us to trade over that level. We are looking to now to buy in the rest of our Puts but I do not like being in this situation. We were just ready to buy this market when it moved yesterday so here we sit wanting to see a break down to own again... we will give some time here as crude looks to be near a top.

Gold - Another day higher as the dollar is sharply lower. We will buy breaks but a small base long position is not a bad idea right here.

Dow -Down 227 as the market is feeling the pinch from oil. We could bounce from here especially if crude weakens even a little.

Cattle – Strong day today as cattle goes with corn and energy.

Tuesday May 20th^-

Corn - Corn rallied sharply today trading over the nine week moving average and up over 16 cents. At the end, the market failed and sold off to finish up 4. Still looks lower to me but the technical picture is hard to call. Today's high is now major resistance and if we trade down through $5.80 in July, we could certainly sell off toward $5.30 to $5.40 in the July.

If you haven't read our comments the last few days make sure you read yesterday's comments.

Wheat – Lower today as we may be setting up to test the lows. We are still not buying yet.

Beans –Not much talk on the strike but it was mentioned in most after market comments. This one is still not trust worthy to trade. It finished 33 cents off the highs so we continue to trade volatility here.

Rice – Another quiet day. Read our comments from last night as we have not changed anything in our thinking.

Cotton- Still out waiting for more news.

Natural Gas – DANG IT!!! Read our comments from last night...so close but so far. The market sharply higher today and we decided to allow the day to finish before looking at re-entering long UNG or short Puts. DANG IT!!! Up 0ver 40 cents today so let's see what happens tomorrow. Crude finished at $129.00....we will wait to see how the market trades at $130.00. Did I say DANG IT!!!! (Read last nights comments)

Gold - Higher again today. We will own breaks as we now have buy signals across the board.

Dow -Down 199.5 points on higher energy costs. We remain in the bear camp here as inflation is going to really start to heat up.

Cattle – Market bounced bask from the selloff yesterday but not near enough. We see numbers lower later this year and believe cow calf will remain profitable if we can get the rain to feed them.

Monday May 19th^-Sell Recommendation in Rice tonight...

Corn - Down 4 on light volume. That will be the key phrase all through this report as there was just not volume to speak of anywhere. In general nothing has changed. While I can see a break here near term, longer term demand is still too high to see a major collapse of the market. What I wrote Friday in my "Lets Talk" portion still holds so allow me to repeat it exactly.

Let's Talk: Friday May 16th.... There was more damage done yesterday than just the reversal. The close at $5.91 is below the 9 week moving average for the first time since it was below that average for 3 days in March and that time July was trading down to $5.15. I have to go back to October of 2007 with July corn trading at $3.84 to find another occurrence of a close under the 9 week average for over 3 days.

While this in itself is not enough to abandon the bullish ship, it is another nail in the bullish argument. For me, I am going forward with the idea that corn cannot break a lot before the Mid-west crop is "certain". I don't know exactly when that will be but it's not right now. I have been saying the following all week..."Remember, our idea is that corn will be on the defensive near term as more of the crop is planted and then the USDA report shows more acres in the June report."

So if I was going to draw out the market idea it would go something like this. Near term look for corn to work toward $5.50 to $5.30 in July waiting on more news like the June report. Then begin to flirt with a major rally on Dry weather concerns and then...a major top this summer until after harvest. Then we will begin to hear the political pressure from food sources to pull corn from the ethanol equation. That will color our after harvest picture. If we do not get a weather scare and hold to lower acres, it is possible we just made the high for the year.

So what does all this mean. It means you need to ask yourself if you want to play this conservative or are you willing to be more of a risk taker. Only you can decide that. I am moving (already have) to 33% sold in corn and will take my chances on a weather rally before the summer ends. I have sold March futures for that purpose. On a weather rally I will move to 100% sold before the Mid-west harvest. That is the conservative position. Risk takers should consider getting to 66% sold before the Mid-west harvest break starts and play with the last 1/3rd. If you will use futures, getting 100% sold and using call options may work as well for the risk takers.

Bottom line is for you to make your marketing plans now and determine how you will approach the selling of the 2008 crop. It is that time!!!

Wheat – 15 higher today and that was 17 down off the highs. Good action and it still looks like we are making a low here and the break down last week was a bear trap. Ummm...where did we hear that before???

Beans –HERE WE GO AGAIN....Remember last Friday's Headlines from the Commentaries....

"Soybean futures ended sharply higher, bouncing on Argentina strike concerns"

Well, today we are down 43 and what were the headlines today you ask???

"Soybean futures ended sharply lower, tumbling on bearish talk surrounding Argentina farmers' strike"

Do I have to say anything.... If so , here is what I wrote last Thursday...

When will traders realize that Argentina Negotiators for farmers of beans in that country trade the futures market. How many times are we going to hear the strike is settled...no its not...yes it is...no it's not... and watch the market get jerked around 50 cents every time.

Stand clear...what is this I hear??? Oh the strike is back on???

Rice – The huge commercial spreading from Friday was not present today so the market rallied into the close finishing up 23 in July and 9 in September. Tomorrow we will return to a 50 cent limit. I still see it lower and want to sell a nice rally. Can we get one?

Cash sellers, I understand we have a chance to sell some rice here at $12.00 ($18.50 with loan) to ARI. With the futures at $18.80 in November that is a negative 30 cent basis but I think we may be able to buy some futures lower. Even so, no need to hang on to our short futures when we can ride the cash at this level of basis to November. Who knows what it will be later so lets get rid of some of the basis exposure. I recommend you take off your 25% short position and sell that 25% to ARI now. If you can use futures on buy backs, I can see farmers moving to 33% at that level and if you are sure of your inputs and yield potential even 50% is not bad.

When ARI jumps to $12.00 this early, they may have some business lined up or are just concerned about early supply. I will help ease their worry and sell them some then wait to see if the market may have more upside coming to sell more. I love to reward the market when the basis gets this close especially in this type of market.

Cotton- Still out waiting for more news.

Natural Gas – Watch out for this one. I will buy UNG back at this level on a buy signal as I start to re-enter the market. The break from Friday and today has us back near $11.00. If we can get under that level ($52.00 for UNG) I will go back with 50% of my base position, sell some Puts (August 50's) on another 25% and hold the other 25% in case we break even farther.

For actual gas buyers, we will sell some August Puts pretty soon but still look at the overall general energy complex for signs of topping action as well. Given all of these situations, can you imagine what a hurricane will do to this market? Neither can I!!!

Gold - Still going. GLD closed right on the nine week moving average. PB is now 51% and momentum is turning up. A higher close tomorrow puts us back in the bull camp for gold.

Dow -Up 41 in light trade. Back and forth volatility makes this a good one to stay away from.

Cattle – Friday's report was considered bearish by most. I viewed it as neutral. When traders come out expecting a bullish report the thing to do is look at the trend of the data not what the experts think. As I said Friday we may get a break and that is what we have, a turn up will be a good buy signal.

Friday May 16th^-

Corn - Down 8 with a Hook reversal down that wipes out the Hook reversal from yesterday. The damage is being done here indicating a top unless weather this summer can get us a rally.

The following discourse is long but it reflects a change in our approach ay this time given all of the fundamentals and technical action we see.

Let's Talk: There was more damage done yesterday than just the reversal. The close at $5.91 is below the 9 week moving average for the first time since it was below that average for 3 days in March and that time July was trading down to $5.15. I have to go back to October of 2007 with July corn trading at $3.84 to find another occurrence of a close under the 9 week average for over 3 days.

Bottom line is for you to make your marketing plans now and determine how you will approach the selling of the 2008 crop. It is that time!!!

Wheat – A little higher and now we wait to see if this is the low. No big change in our ideas. We need a close over $8.32 to tilt this market back higher.

Beans – "Soybean futures ended sharply higher, bouncing on Argentina strike concerns"

The above was take straight from a press report on today's trade. Read my comments from last night. Argentina farmers and their reps were long the futures today and they just keep feeding this line to the market. You may laugh and say I'm crazy to believe it but I believe they can trade the market just like you and I can. Eventually this "strike thing" will pass and then I'll trade it. For now, I am not going to trade a market in the hands of the Argentineans. We are going to wait for real news.

Rice – Huge commercial spreading continued today as the premium for old crop is driven out of the market. July was down 44 cents while September was up 52 cents. The spread collapsed by 96 cents which is just more evidence of the bearishness in this market right here. Volume was big but not as high as I am expecting at the low of this break. I still see it lower and want to sell a nice rally. Can we get one?

One more thing...when I say I want to sell a rally I mean to add to current sales. I am not buying back my shorts. We sold July futures expecting this break in the basis. It has gone from over $3.00 to $1.20 so it was the right thing to do. The next time I will be selling September or November depending on the spread between those two months.

Cotton- Still out waiting for more news.

Natural Gas – Lower today and looking at more gas infusion into the system. We need a break here to own gas for the hurricane season. $11.00 is support but I can see a possible break to $10.70. We may buy some call spreads in the near futures if the break unfolds.

Gold - Close back above $900. This back above the downward trend line and we are approaching the nine week moving average. A close back over that level in GLD would put us back in the bull camp for gold.

Dow -Down 5 and no comments.

Cattle – Trend remains higher with resistance approaching. We may come down a bit before charging for new highs.

Thursday May 15th^-

Corn - Corn ran out of sellers today and rallied back to up 3 today. This has given bulls more hope near term. According to traders specs started buying at the lows and support and then commercials ran to get in front of the funds. If this is true, we may consolidate before testing those lows again.

Remember, our idea is that corn will be on the defensive near term as more of the crop is planted and then the USDA report shows more acres in the June report.

Wheat – Market off lows. I am not interested in trading here right now but I would like to own it once we have a good indication we are finished on the down side.

Beans – When will traders realize that Argentina Negotiators for farmers of beans in that country trade the futures market. How many times are we going to hear the strike is settled...no its not...yes it is...no it's not... and watch the market get jerked around 50 cents every time. Money is flowing into those guys accounts out of US bean traders. We learned this year ago...when ever there is news flow in control of South American Soybean interests...DO NOT TRADE BEANS!!!

We will sell beans when news is about TRUE fundamentals and we still think a rally later this year will be the right time.

Rice – Limit down again today and this time it was $1.15. As I type this we are down another 74 cents. That is 30 cents off the lows!!! We could bounce somewhere in here but I still have not seen the capitulation in the market I expect. A heavy volume down day. Until then rallies are to be sold. remember Greed...then Hope...the Fear...We are getting close to fear. We are also getting close to break even prices given input costs...well, lets HOPE not...because right after that comes FEAR and it will mean losses on the farm.

Cotton- Still out waiting for more news.

Natural Gas – Lower today but off lows at the close. We may push one more time for $12.00. We are out of UNG and we have bought back half of out short Puts. We will stay this way for now.

Gold - Nice rally and right back to the 4 week moving average. It almost looks like gold is divorcing itself from the dollar...we will be watching for that.

Dow -Up 94 and holding at the 13,000 level. No comments right now.

Cattle – A little lower...nothing to do here right now.

Wednesday May 14th^-

General Comment - I am not going to write a lot tonight as nothing has changed anywhere in my opinion. I will comment on Corn, Wheat and Rice.

Corn looks weaker as I type this we are down 5 and on the major support at $5.91. Next support is at $5.84 and then $5.76. Indicators are turning negative with PB under 45. As I said yesterday, things have changed here and it looks like we are headed lower and could test the $5.70 level or lower. We have uncovered our calls by selling futures and remain short the 630 calls. We are also short the 530 and 570 Puts. We will hold that for now.

Wheat has broken major support much to our surprise so look for more down here. The next level of support is actually around $7.00 down to $6.60. We will not trade here yet but want to own wheat longer term.

Rice was limit down gain today and it is down another 90 cents in the overnight trade. The limit is $1.15 today and it sure could be hit at some point. Usually the expansion limit is not traded to so I am not sure we will trade limit down but here is the main thing. We are now selling off and longs are in trouble big time. Realization will start to set in and while some may marry their position, many will start to cave in to the pain of the market headed lower. We are firmly bearish here and have been while other have held on to their bullish stance. If we close down sharply today and start lower tomorrow night or next week, the selling could become even heavier. We will sell rallies.

Tuesday May 13th^-

Corn - I must admit that I am getting more nervous here. The break today to $5.95 was above support but it was an easy move to the downside. I am going to lighten up as I am in covered calls and short Puts and so I want to go to the sidelines for a bit. Corn acres are going to get planted but there can be no room for a mistake but here is the thing...what are the odds that the USDA will increase the acres in the June report? I'd say 90%. So if that is the case, then a trend line yield will push the projected carryover right back to 1 billion bushels. Then we will see if we get some weather problems anywhere in the US. SO with all that said, the action and the fundamentals are telling me to go tot the sidelines for now and that is what I am doing.

Wheat – Testing the lows. Do not own it yet.

Beans – Higher on Argentina troubles (strikes) and the idea that corn is going to get planted. The problem is that I don't see corn as more profitable with $700.00 fertilizer right now along with $13.50 beans. The costs are switching back in favor of beans but the press has already gripped onto the idea of profitable corn. In any event beans look higher and we haven't sold anything so let her rip!!!

Rice – As we have been saying, this rally was to be sold and we did moving to 25% sold in New Crop futures. The market closed limit down today with over 500 contracts offered at limit down and tonight in the evening session we are limit down again. Another 75 cents with 52 contracts offered at limit down. We have a firm target of $19.00 in the July but it will not happen next week (at least I don't think so). Commentators are saying this is over good planting progress in Arkansas and I can see some of that but this is more a part of a major top in rice. A perfect Kondratieff top. We even told you where the technical target was for the rally and showed how it would hit that price on the open last Friday during the WEBINAR which it did before collapsing. We will sell rallies but don't look for much until we test the recent lows again. For specs, you should have time to get in here short and make some money but do so on a bounce.

Cotton- Lower today and it looks to follow the grains a while. No reason to trade.

Natural Gas – Higher again. Heaven help us!!! No sign of a top as it approaches $12.00. We will start looking for one but this energy thing is totally out of control. I think a democrat in the white house will release some of the reserve to see it it won't drive some of the specs out so be prepared for that....in 8 months!!!

Gold - Down again today and looking to keep heading south. We are out and looking for a reason to own it.

Dow -Down 44 in a quiet session. Once this energy run catches up to the street...it won't be at this level!!!!

Cattle – Dead today...no comments.

Monday May 12th^-

Corn - Ideas that it may dry out and let planters catch up sent the market lower today finishing off 14 cents. We could still run a little lower near term as support is just under $6.00. A flip back to more rain in the Mid-west will send it right back up but we may have peaked until we get a better handle on what the crop size potential really is.

Wheat – Consolidation is a term we may use here for some time. Sideways for now and in that process it could test the recent lows.

Beans – Lower with the corn. I still like beans longer term but near term we have some weather and planted acreage ideas to consider.

Rice – Read Friday's comments. Nothing new here and nothing will be new for tomorrow either as we return to a 50 cent limit and find ourselves well inside last Friday's range. We have not changed form the idea that odds favor a top here. Those odds will change right back to the bull side if we close over Friday's high. That is out of range tomorrow as is Friday's low. We need more bullish news to establish the up trend again. If the news starts to come out bearish, we may resume the push toward support at $600 a ton which support $15.00 rice. There is enough uncertainty, we may consolidate for the time being.

Cotton- Another quiet day. Nothing to talk about.

Natural Gas – With crude down over $2.00, Nat Gas broke 25 cents. Let's see how tomorrow's action looks. We could correct or wee could once again challenge highs.

Gold - Down $3.00 with the dollar lower. We want to own a move lower.

Dow -Up 130 on news that HP is buying a supplier and crude is down over $2.00. No change in our ideas from last week.

Cattle – Down a little as cattle is now moving in tandem with corn.

Friday May 9th^-

Corn - The USDA report this morning looked bearish but most felt it was bullish and the market was called higher. Right after the open the selling came in and drove the market down but at the end of the day we are off only 1 cent. In general, the report to day indicates we are going to be very tight on supply and $6.00 corn should be a fixed level for some time. If we get a weather scare, we may see over $7.00. We are are going to stay where we are at 20% sold, and for specs, we like being short Puts and and in a covered call position.

Wheat – The report was bearish showing supply almost doubling over a year but the supply is still low and again there is no room for a problem. Down 18 today and it looks like we will test the recent lows.

Beans – Up 48 on a bullish S&D report. This will keep the beans from breaking too low and if we get a weather scare, beans will rocket and on that we will be a seller.

Rice – We spent a lot of time on rice this morning and as we said, we thought the report was bearish. The market opened limit up and then broke off the highs in July by $2.00 only to rally back $1.40. In the old crop it looks suspicious but it did close higher. In the new crop, today was a massive key reversal down and a sell signal IF there is follow through selling. In the next few days. Today's lows are major support.

Today's report in my opinion was bearish. They eased carry over for the 2007 year (what is up with that???) and they lowered carry over to just under 10 million cwt for next week. This was bearish old crop and bullish new crop but again, the only thing we can hear is that there is a shortage of rice world wide...yet the carry over world wide was raised 5 million metric tons...

Here is the bottom line. We have some traders in here that do not care about the fundamentals. I am not saying that because I think the report was bearish and am trying to explain why the market was higher. It is fine for the market to go up on this type of buying and it could still run toward the recent highs; however, the scary thing is any news that would start to be bearish would bring in massive selling with little buying. It might come from another $2.00 higher but it will come. As the news flow dries up and any bearish news starts to enter the market, things will get ugly.

New crop had a reversal today and is setup to sell off and old crop is hanging on to Myanmar and old stories still circulating. When all of that ends, so will this run. We are selling more in new crop futures on new lows and will get to 25% sold if it happens on Monday!!!

Cotton- Marginally higher on a nothing report. Long term bullish and near term cautious.

Natural Gas – Another strong day and no sign of a stop here. I am going to go right back in and buy UNG on 50% of my position on new highs next week.

Gold - Looking at $900 again. It looks strong right now and if the stock sell off accelerates next week, we could get a good bounce here.

Dow -Down 120 and looking weak. Today's close is below the 4 week moving average and right on the upward trend line from the March lows. A move under 12,600 sets up a test of 12,000.

Cattle – Up 90 and as we said today, we like cattle near term as we have moved through some of the heavier cattle numbers.

Thursday May 8th^-

Corn - Today was a breakout day. The market closed into new all time highs and there was no selling to push it out of the new range. This indicates a move toward $6.60 in the July and also that tomorrow's report is going to be considered bullish. We bought futures today to re-establish our covered call position and that is how we will go through the report. It looks like the market is realizing that corn acres are not going to expand given the current weather.

Wheat – Up 14 but 22 off their high. That is in front of a report that should be a nothing for wheat. We will buy a break here as the market looks to be on firm footing.

Beans – Up just a bit in front of the report. Tomorrows numbers will show a growth in ending stocks for the 08-09 year.

Rice – Limit up as the market makes its way back toward the gap. The tightness of rice supply leads the news stories and Myanmar has certainly drawn the light back onto the rice market. I don't see Myanmar as being that bullish but it is the perception right now. The market will open tonight with $1.15 limit and we will see if we can trade that high. Tomorrow's report is huge. We will get a lot of questions answered but will we believe the answers.

Based on the close today, look for rice to open 35-55 higher tonight in July and any one who wants out should be able to get out. I would love to sell it higher but I will wait for the report tomorrow and see if that can't get us another $1.00 in new crop.

Cotton- Up 65 in front of the report. We will see how much of a problem we have with the supply on the numbers tomorrow morning.

Natural Gas – A little lower today. Crude up over $124.00. Can crude go to $150.00...you bet but the question is when and also, what about the US dollar? Nat gas is still cheap compared to crude. We will buy breaks.

Gold - Not liking this one so much right here. I took off my GLD position and will go to the sidelines for awhile. I'd rather be wrong out of the market than in it.

Dow -Up 33 and still trading. No comments.

Cattle – Up again today with corn prices on the rice. That looks more and more like we have come around the supply curve as normally you would not expect this. With corn possibly breaking out, we should stay firm near term.

Wednesday May 7th^-

General Comment - I will come back and make full comments late tonight after the market has traded a few hours. Check back in the morning or around 11PM tonight if you want.

Rice was limit up as Myanmar remains the top story. I will have special comments on this Friday morning and will show the fundamentals of this area during the Webinar at 8:30 AM. I expect the market to be sharply higher in the night session as well with over 200 contracts bid limit up at today's close. Couple the concern for supply with the Friday's report, we may see some short covering along with new buyers believing wee are headed to the highs again. While anything is possible, I do not think this rally will last that long and I do not see new highs or even the old highs tested. With that said, I wouldn't be short except the current hedge which by the way still has a profit of over $1.50 in it with the limit move today. All I can do it hope we get to sell it that high again.

Corn and beans were higher today with beans up on ideas that Argentina farmers will get a full strike going and force some shipments shift out of the United States. Here we go again!!! Corn remains range bound. It could be slow tomorrow in front of the report.

Tuesday May 6th^-

Corn - WOW!!! One of those days. Up 28 cents at one time but ended up 12 and selling off at the close. Not a red letter day technically but not a complete disaster either. If anything, today's finish tells us to remain in the strangle we have been in since last week when we lifted the cover call position. We will stay just as we are and see what the market has in it short term.

Wheat – Up 12 but almost 19 off the high. We may test recent support but signs of a low are also showing their head. A move over $8.40 in July would break the down trend and set up a sideways consolidation in a range. The nine week average is way up at $9.64 so we are a long way from major resistance.

Beans – Over 50 cents off its high and down 9 with a massive outside day down. This is a continuation signal that beans should still head lower. Today's high is now major resistance and it looks like it will take a major supply risk event to test that near term. I don't see it until things heat up for the summer.

Rice – I didn't like this today. I guess the good news is we closed higher in old crop as the selling dried up a bit going into the close. Purely technically speaking, today was pretty bad and could be signaling another round of selling in the next few days. As I said last night and it bears repeating, Traders need to remember, Greed will turn into Hope and Hope will turn into Fear. What's after fear??? We start waiting for something to get greedy about!!!

I sold a little more today and am not sure it was the right thing to do but the technical action was just not looking that good. I may lift it right back off tomorrow but if we drop under $20.84 in July, things could get really ugly again. I need to make sure you know my position because that paints my comments. Just as if you are bullish right now, that affects your response to my bearishness. That is OK...it is what makes the world go round and you could still be right. A move back over today's high will set us up to move toward the gap. Man I hope that happens!!!!

Cotton- A bounce today but I can still se it down around 66 in the July. I am not trading it and do not advise any trading in cotton for now.

Natural Gas – We started higher and then the market started to fail. I sold my UNG today believing we are about to enter a trading range. I think I can buy UNG lower over the next several days. One thing to make clear, I do not see a major break coming here. Especially if crude can keep this up. I think crude will have problems over $125. I know we will!!!

Gold - I am still long gold but not liking the action here either. We have owned 50% of our base position and as I said back on April 29th, we saw gold holding the $850 level in August which it did. Tonight I am a little concerned and tomorrow may lift off 30% of the base position and drop back to 20% long and look for another test of at least $850.

Dow -Up 51 and over 13,000 again. My concern here is the world economy with the US slowing down. Earnings look good but the delay factor has not hit the earnings of US companies yet. I still am not a major bull but near term we could go higher.

Cattle – Up 40 with a small hook reversal up. It also came right off the nine week moving average. I still like cattle but not on the board, just in the field.

Monday May 5th^-

Corn - As we wrote last Friday and then again this morning, corn was looking weak and today it broke down through all support finishing down 19 1/2 cents. I was not brave enough or maybe should say "stupid enough" to short corn but we did strangle the market by selling the 630 July call and then sold the June 570 Put last week. That position has made us over 20 cents tonight so we will wait and see how things go over the next few days. Read last nights comments for more information on that.

Tonight's planting progress report shows us 27% planted which is way behind normal. It will be interesting to see if we can get a bounce out of this number tonight.

Wheat – Down 3 but holding over $8.00 again. O can see a test of recent lows but I think the damage is done here and will use a break to sell some Puts in Wheat.

Beans – Down 19 on ideas that corn acres are shifting to beans. I see the market under its normal South American lower drift and it will continue until we need to put a weather premium in here. November could test $10.50 before we get done.

Rice – Welcome to no-mans land. New crop rallied today and that could have been on weather or just technical buying after the break. Old crop was pretty dead. I can see it wither direction from here but still want to sell a bounce. Remember, Greed will turn into Hope and Hope will turn into Fear. We will get more sold on a rally here.

Cotton- New lows are not being bought very well so it looks lower still. $66.00 in July seems probable but don't trade for it. In fact, do not trade this one at all right now.

Natural Gas – Sharply higher. We bought last week on the break and were rewarded by a very strong move today. We find ourselves not far from the highs but I doubt we get through that level right now. Looks like we could get range bound for a while.

Gold - A nice bounce with the lower dollar. We are near resistance with a long way to go to get to a buy signal.

Dow -Down 88 with crude soaring. We think the economy is still sitting in a bad situation and earnings may still suffer. I don't see a big break but I think I can buy the markets lower.

Cattle – Down 92 as we give back more of the April rally. Today's close is under the 4 week average but we see some signs of a consolidation setting up not a big break.

Friday May 2nd^-

Corn - The rally failed today as the market reversed again and looks more and more like it is going to struggle here. We may need a break. I am short the 630 July Call and the July 570 Put. They paid me 44 cents for both positions and I have that to play with as a