Friday September 28th-

Corn – Corn collapsed today on this morning's stock report.  While the corn tried a come back mid-day as wheat rallied, when the wheat faded the market sold off.  Look for more downside action in the days a head especially if wheat weakens.  I know I sound like a stuck CD but this one is following wheat and the ideas of shortages with the wheat and grains to a large extent.

Wheat –  A bullish stocks report started wheat sharply higher.  In fact in the first minute of trade the low was $9.40 and the high was $9.50 1/2.  That was the first 60 seconds!!!   The market's open will be in the middle on the charts so its $9.45.  The market closed with the LAST minute having a high of $9.45 and a low of $9.38 and a market close of $9.39.  In general, not such a swift close given the bullish news and the fact that at 12:45 we up 29 cents and finished the day up 6 cents.  Even so, there is no chart sign of a top unless you use Candle Stick charting which today does show a bearish spike (Dojo).   I don't use it but many people do so there could be some ideas of a weaker action on Monday brining out the technical sellers. 

Bottom line is unchanged from our prior written comments.  The charts are setup to top, the seasonal tendency is for a top and the fundamentals while still extremely supportive, indicate we have about rung this one dry.  Specs who have a strong constitution could consider selling the Dec $10 call.  They closed at $38 cents which means the market would need to run to close above $10.38 at expiration before you lose money and the market closed at $9.39.    

Beans – Sharply lower on stocks and harvest pressure expected this weekend.  We want to own another break here but think it could be a few weeks before we own it. 

Rice – Down 2 and unchanged after falling 17 cents early in the trade.  We still like rice and want to own a break.  My concern is two fold.  The wheat looks to be stalling and if we get a hard break in the Dec wheat rice could sell off as well.  Second, the cash market is not following futures very well.  Cash does not lead the way so remember futures leads and cash follows.  If the wheat starts sell off then the rice market can see a good break toward cash.  That is my concern for buying rice at this level. 

Natural Gas – Down almost 6 cents.  Nothing new here as we wait for more news. 

Cattle – Down 40 and holding in a range right here. 

Dow –   Down 17 and still looking at resistance points.  Earnings continue to show a good quarter but the guidance is indicating a slowing economy.

Cotton – Down sharply today.  If this break can run under 63, it should be bought longer term. 

Gold - Up $10 today and looking good.  Buy breaks. 

Thursday September 27th-

Corn – Sharply higher today as corn closes in on a gap target of $3.95 in December.   Still looks to follow wheat but the fundamentals are good here and pull backs should be bought.  A good break remains possible as harvest pushes forward.  If wheat starts to falter, I will sell calls near term. 

Wheat –  Today's action was interesting.  First, our upside target of $9.50 was almost hit climbing to $9.46 at one time.  From there the market corrected 14 cents and close 15 higher on the day.  It broke much of that 14 cents in the last 5 minutes.  The second thing is more important.  Bear spreading.  Now usually when the market breaks down we see bear spreading but today was different in that we were up on the day and for much of it, December was not as strong as July setting up a bear spreading day and in fact, the bear spreading activity closed the market spread by 8 cents at the close.

Yes, we are looking for anything that tells us when this leg in old crop wheat is going to end.  It is the time historically for the market to reverse, it is technically setup to reverse and thirdly I don't see the fundamentals holding this type of premium to the market just as I have said the last few weeks.  Even so, there is NO SELL SIGNAL tonight but just things that looks suspicious regarding wheat's ability to hold this level. 

Beans – Up 18 today.  Nothing new for us.  Still dry in Brazil and still fundamentally strong in world and US pictures.  We remain long but may sell some calls to protect longs if the wheat starts to weaken. 

Rice – Closed right on its contract and new high of 11.75.  Nothing new from us, buy breaks and stay long selling NOTHING!!! 

Natural Gas – Down 12 with bearish fundamentals keeping pressure on the market. 

Cattle – Up 15 and still holding a sideways tilt right here. 

Dow –   Up 35 and looking to test major resistance. 

Cotton – Back up 72 and while I am not trading it, I see 70 cents still for this contract. 

Gold - Down $4.00 yesterday and up $4.50 today.  I like it near term and longer term as well. 

Wednesday September 26th-

Corn – Higher today with the market running stops in the last minute to push 4 cents higher on the day.  Wheat still looks to be the leader here and with new contract highs corn should follow up with it near term. 

Wheat –  Last night I said a push toward $9.50 was not out of the question and today it started its attempt.  We finished limit up with new contract highs.  My opinion has not changed, we are in no man's land and certain in an area we have never been before.  There is coming a time when the market is saturated and the news will begin to shift to the short side and when it does, it will be pretty.  Even so, we can not be short wheat and while we feel this is WAY OVERDONE based on fundamentals, it is now in the mode of " the last sucker to buy it".  In other words, buy it as long as you are not the last sucker to do so.  For now, the news is all bullish and the technical picture can not over-ride that.  What can change the fundamental situation?  Two things:

1)  Rain forecasts for the Australian wheat belt (increase in supply)

So far there is nothing on the horizon to signal a crop saving rain.  There are signs that the US wheat acreage for 2007-08 is going to be HUGE but that is still a couple of months away from really being news. 

2)  Demand slows down

If a huge tender is passed on in the cash market, that could start to signal we have gone to the limits of importers near term.  So far, the tenders keep coming and no sign of a let down. 

I learned a long time ago to never try and pick a top.  Last week it looked technically like a top was being put in but today's close erases that.  Was this a bull trap??  Could be but I wouldn't bet on it.  We hold to our opinion that a top is coming and still could be forming.  Even so DO NOT BE SHORT.  Let someone else get the glory of selling the top and keep your powder dry.  

Beans – Up 17 today in a sideways range.  The market did its run early and pretty much stayed in that range the rest of the day.  They are waiting for rain in Brazil to plant and the way its gone in the southern hemisphere this year, they may have to wait a while.  We remain bullish here thinking higher prices are a must but harvest pressure will give us some breaks along the way.   

Rice – Rice pushed into new contract highs by two cents today doing it in the last 30 minutes.  There were no stops as one might expect and at the close the market was lightly bid (buyers) but well offered (sellers) above the market.  It was that way all day today so the buyers were active and there is no sign they are through.  Cash remains well behind the board and sooner or later something has to give.  We remain long in cash and on the board.

Natural Gas – Down almost a nickel with no real trading activity today.

Cattle – Down 45 and consolidating.  We are way over cash so we could consolidate here for a while or even break to close the gap.  I still like the cattle and particularly the cash cattle variety.

Dow –   Up 105 as the market sees the data as not that bearish.  Look for this push to continue near term. 

Cotton – Down 15 and quiet.  We still like it on the long side.

Gold - Down $4.00 with crude reversing higher today and the dollar firmer all day long.  Long term a good 's hold...read last night's comments.

Tuesday September 25th-

Corn – Lower today failing to hold a mid-day rally.  This one could go either way near term.  A pull back in corn makes sense with the harvest going on but everyone knows about harvest and the selling is not large enough right now to push us lower; however, additional selling could easily develop over the next 10 day.  No way are we selling and I want to own a break if we can get a good one.  . 

Wheat –  Read our comments from last night and Friday.  I am not changing my ideas.  As I type this, here we go again with wheat up 7 cents in the overnight session at 8 PM Central time.  That is still 13 off of today's high and every time we get over $9.00 the selling seems to dry up.  A move toward $9.50 is not out of the question but I will say again, even if Australia lost 100% of their wheat, we would have more than enough to handle the situation with the amount of wheat being planted this year.  In general, traders are looking at the bullish news and as long as the news keeps coming, so will the buying.  

Beans – Lower today as the market is still looking for support on this correction.  It may not come for another 50 cents but what a great buying opportunity if that happens.  It is just like corn and could go either way. 

Rice – Quiet trade today and again closing in the higher end of the range.  This is the 5th time in 6 days we have closed closer to the high than the low and 4 of those were in the top 25%.  This indicates a lack of selling support when the market sells off and the buyers are coming to the market pushing it back up.  With that said, tomorrow could easily be another day.  For now, we are still using the idea to buy an extreme range move which in rice is down about 20 cents tomorrow. 

Natural Gas – Down just a little as the market now looks to the Atlantic and longer term weather forecasts along with production levels.  We are in buy mode looking to buy a hard break.

Cattle – Down 22 and still looking good. 

Dow –   Up 20 today as the market has some bad news to factor in and earnings are not looking so good longer term. 

Cotton – Down 16 in quiet trade.  We remain bullish here but breaks are to be expected especially in cotton right now. 

Gold - When I look at a market, I always approach it with the question, "where is the risk?"  If you answer that question in gold right now, the answer cannot be to the short side for very much.  With the inflation squeeze and the dollar in huge trouble, the downside potential is not more than 5 to 7%.  I am a believer in $1000 gold in the next 3 years just because I see the dollar going on sale and gold and crude pushing higher.  If you are thinking about owning gold, you might want to wait a bit but a move under $7.20 is where you really start looking at owning it.  By the way, study the Exchange Traded Fund ticker GLD which tracks gold.

Monday September 24th-

Corn – Good harvest weather and a lack of follow through on higher levels in Gold and Crude oil allowed the market to sell off from early highs and corn actually put in a reversal pattern on the day.  Not sure it means anything but we will be watching the other markets tomorrow to see if gold and oil re-establish a positive trend.   This one can go either way but let me suggest, the only thing driving this market is not the fundamentals of corn in the United States. 

The dollar today reversed after trading over $1.41 to the Euro.  This is a major issue right now because the Saudis are threatening to quit pegging their oil to the US dollar.  So what is the big deal...well guys its time for a heart to heart talk:

Let's Talk:    If the Saudis decouple from the dollar, then we would see a bunch of middle east countries holding US currency start to sell the dollar to exchange for the "new" currency of choice.  I assume it would be the Euro because there is nothing else to couple to.  This would also free China to start dumping the dollar as well and we could see the dollar break as much as 10% more very quickly.  Of course this means all of our commodities would have an immediate impact on all of our prices in a positive way when we talk about commodities.  Gold would head for over $850 which would mean all time highs for gold.  Oil would push toward $100.00 and all of the commodity markets would push higher with everything sharply higher. 

What can keep this from happening??  Two things I can think of and probably a lot of things I can't but here are the two I know would.

1)  Declare war on Iran.  The run to the dollar would be huge but...I don't think we are going to do that one.

2)  Start tightening the purse strings to stop inflation.  That means instead of a cutting of interest rates, we would see the other side.  Raising rates.  We can't do that on either right now because we have too much liquidity problems. 

What will happen then???  I don't see anything to stop the current onslaught of fear buying as shortages for commodities continues and that explains why we are going up when we should be going down.

Breaks in anything here is going to be a buying opportunity until the situation changes.  There maybe another way...time will tell but until it does...hold everything. 

Wheat –  Nothing new.  Old crop was up 4 cents but 18 cents off of its high and new crop July was was up 8 1/2.  So with that said, same comments tonight as Friday...

I haven't changed my ideas here.  I think old crop is in trouble new crop can still go higher and maybe a lot.  For now we want to watch the rest of the grains but still like being bear spread Dec/July.  It is extremely risky but still looks like a good one over the next several weeks. 

Beans – Unchanged in a back and forth trade.  I like this market higher.  Tomorrow will be interesting as we have had two days where the market worked lower with little drive.  If we start running higher tomorrow, we may head for the $10.00 mark later this week in November.   

Rice – Down 1 with commercials selling early and buying late.  We will buy extreme breaks here which I am calling 15 to 25 cents on the day. 

Natural Gas – Higher and still showing bullish signs right here.  We would buy breaks.

Cattle – Up 60 and still looking bullish.  100.75 in December tonight. 

Dow –   Down 61 with the market looking for news tomorrow from a couple of big indicators including used home sales.  I think the market needs one more push higher at least but I am not liking this at all. 

Cotton – Up 15 in quiet trade just like everything else.

Gold - Two days of very tight action in Gold.  This sets up a breakout scenario.  $728 is support and if violated sets up a test of support and a ratcheting back of inflation fears for now.  A move over $748 puts us right back in the heat of things. 

Friday September 21st-

Corn – As I said on the audio update, this market is now looking like it did in 2006.  Last year on September 21st corn broke giving buy signals that started $1.50 move in the December contract.  Now while the fundamentals helped support the move with a harvest yield lower than first thought and a carryover expected to be very low as of July 31st, 2007.  All in all, the market move was early as we had been saying for months the corn market was going to go a lot higher late in the year and into 2007; however, the market starting to move higher in September was not what we were expecting at all. 

Now we are facing the same thing.  The market is breaking out almost exactly at the same time and talk of lower acres and a reduced and dangerous carryover by 2009 is dominating the trade.  On top of that, the idea of an inflationary spurt in also starting to take on supportive trade from all inflationary fronts.  While this doesn't mean we are going to rally $1.50 from here, it certainly has our attention and we realize the market is not acting normally to the harvest pressure that should be occurring.

We have said many times, this market will have times where it goes up when it shouldn't or goes down when it shouldn't.  Right now, we are in one of those times and to be honest, we could stay firm for quiet a while.  I don't have any target prices.  I just realize we are in a situation where the market may need to go substantially higher and harvest or no harvest, sellers will be hard to find. 

Buy breaks and stay as long as you can.  Corn over $4.50 is not a pipe dream and could occur sooner than we thought. 

Wheat –  I haven't changed my ideas here.  I think old crop is in trouble new crop can still go higher and maybe a lot.  For now we want to watch the rest of the grains but still like being bear spread Dec/July.  It is extremely risky but still looks like a good one over the next several weeks. 

Beans – Lower today but only 9 cents and in a market that is over bought.  No sign of a top here and we are not doing any selling.  This market was the only one lower today of the grains and the volume didn't seem that big.  We look for another test of recent highs. 

Rice – Up 9 and in the area of major resistance.  I like the fact commercials remain buyers and are buy breaks.  Looks like we are still good to go higher.  We want to remain long and would not be selling anything. 

Natural Gas – Lower today with the tropical storm not affecting any production areas.  Market looking at longer term weather forecasts for direction.  Indicators are still positive but weakening. 

Cattle – A strong day today in front of the cattle-on-feed report which was considered a little bullish.  We still like the market and think it will go higher.

Dow –   Up 53 as the market absorbs the dollar and oil market action.  Who knows but in general, the market still looks good from here. 

Cotton – Still going higher.  We like the market and think it could slowly chug toward 70 cents for the December contract. 

Thursday September 20th-

Corn – More up action today on bullish news.  China will be importing corn and suspending some of its exports.  That couple with the collapse of the dollar brought about a total commodity led advancement with gold and crude rising as well.  In fact, just the meat market was lower.

What now???   The falling dollar is going to bring more and more demand to our shores.  Even with $4.00 corn it will be the buying power of under $2.00 when compared to where the dollar was 5 years ago.  Comparing the cost of wheat in the US and the cost of wheat in Euros' has allowed the wheat to run to new all time highs and before its all said and done, corn could do the same. 

The question is timing.  Will we not have any weakness at all heading into the 2007 harvest main stretch??  We still think so and do not want to be buying the market where it is; however, we aren't wanting to sell it here either.  We are storing everything we can and for buy backs, we will hold our guns and buy breaks. 

One more thing, until today, the buying has been mainly short covering...today that could have changed as we may have seen the funds start to own it for the first time in several months.  We will be watching that and buying breaks. 

Wheat –  Old crop new crop spread should continue to come in over the next several weeks.  We will see some good bounces along the way in both directions but the old crop still is acting like it has topped.  New crop has given no such signal. 

Beans – Another big day up and the fundamentals along with the technicals are still pointing higher.  No reason to sell here.  A test of $9.50 in the November could occur has harvest gears up and we could sell off to $9.00.  If so, we will be owning it on the break. 

Rice – Up 13 today with good commercial buying.  We are closing in on the $1.55 resistance.  Also, this commercials buying is new buying as open interest is rising which is a good sign.  No reason to sell and we will buy a breakout over $11.60 or a break if we get one with the other grains. 

Natural Gas – A bullish report this morning but the market sold off until late in the session when the market was able to get a little higher.  We will watch the gulf action to see if the storm is anything to worry about. 

Cattle – A little lower in front of the report tomorrow.  We still are holding cash cattle selling as needed with no real risk in the market to the downside right here. 

Dow –   Down 48 in a small correction.  Looks still higher to me. 

Cotton – Up what we lost yesterday.  Another market looking good longer term and in need of acres for next year. 

Wednesday September 19th-

Corn – Heavy spread unwinding from the long wheat and short corn spread found little sellers in the corn today and the market rallied nicely.  Certainly more than we expected in light of harvest progress expected this week.  Once that buying is gone, then what???  Its hard to say right now but I still think this is a rally to sell but it could last another 5 to 10 cents. 

Wheat –  I said this morning I expected the market limit down today which happened; however, the market didn't close there and rallied to close down 24.  As I type this the market is up 6 in the overnight session.  Look for the the volatility to continue as the wheat will top hard given its lofty heights but even so, I still stand in the bear camp realizing rallies are possible but should be sold. 

Beans – Up just a little but 18 off the lows as beans came roaring back.  No sign of a top here and it looks like we could get a least one more push higher.  Today's low is major support. 

Rice – Unchanged and still seeing some commercials buying.  We will buy breaks here to get to 50% long any base position needed.  Right now we are at 33%. 

Natural Gas – Lower today but not by much.  Market has a bullish tilt to it but could work down to find major support.  We are not trading it right here waiting for more news. 

Cattle – Quiet in front of this weeks Cattle on Feed report which comes out Friday.  Still looks like a bullish setup with the market sideways right now.

Dow –   Up 76 giving us a 400 point rally in two days.  Market may have more upside in it as the idea that the Fed is going to open up the piggy bank leading the way higher.  Who knows...they just may do it. 

Cotton – Down 90 with a massive hook reversal down.  We were sharply higher early but sold off.  We will watch to see where support is in a correction.  Longer term still looks good but it is kind of like rice...there is no rush to work higher. 

Tuesday September 18th-

General Comment...  Before getting into the comments tonight, yes I called the reversal in wheat but I'm not sure it means anything.   The action was not strong enough to really count as a reversal even though the chart looks like one tonight. 

In any event, before reading the  comments tonight, be sure to read our opening comments this morning.  Here is a link.  Then come back and read this page. 

Corn – Unchanged today but certainly closer to the high than the low.  The reversal in wheat will dictate near term.  Remember, there is some huge short corn/ long wheat spreads so we could see strength in the December corn as the market unwinds those spreads IF and it is a BIG IF, the wheat is topping.  We want to own corn longer term so hold cash and if you need futures, wait a bit to see if we can't own it lower. 

Wheat –  Dry weather forecasts and a lower wheat production number couldn't keep wheat from make a hook reversal down.  As I said above, I'm not sure it means anything because it was a weak reversal.  Yes we closed 30 cents off the over night highs but there was not the strong push lower I would like to have seen IF the market was topping.  Here is what I am worried about in regards to the wheat fundamentals and this comes straight from last nights comments. 

"Let's put that (Australia's situation) in perspective.  Current carry over forecasts for the world are at 112  million metric tons.  So we would end up with 104 and during a year we use about 620 million metric tons.  That means a world stocks-to-use ratio of 15%...  THINK ABOUT IT!!!!  For the United states that number comes in a round 17.5%.

Does this deserve $9.00 wheat???   Corn stocks-to-use is at 13% and coarse grains stock-to-use is at 11% world wide.  Should wheat enjoy a 3-1 ratio and what about wheat acres being planted???

My bottom line is this, wheat is running right now because of several factors and most people are not looking at the big picture but the one right in front of them and that is dry weather.  When you step back and look at the total scheme of things, the fundamentals are iffy to say the least."

As I type this, wheat is now up 4 cents in the overnight trade.  While I can see the fundamentals as not that bullish from $9.00, the market maybe seeing something else and want to price in more protection for new crop but then the new crop should be running higher as well.  It isn't.  Just be careful and look for a violent top.  It could come at any time but again, it doesn't have to.

Beans – Market held well today and looks to be able to work higher near term unless the wheat starts to collapse.  That could affect the psyche of the market near term but longer term, beans needs to buy acres and Brazil may be answering the call.  

Rice – Commercial buying today sent the market higher.  A lack of farmer selling maybe telling the market it must go higher in order shake any supplies lose.  A close over $11.54 is needed to put the market into a technical break-out condition.   

Natural Gas – Nice rally off the lows.  Forecasts are a little colder and longer term forecasts are sure not as warm as last year.   

Cattle – Up 95 with the Dow higher.  The market closed before the Fed funds rate change so look for more strength in the morning. 

Dow –   Up 335 points on the Feds announcement.  Today's low is now major support.  The Fed sited the economy maybe in threat of doing poorly based on the current sub-prime condition.  We agree and the Dow up 335 points in light of a coming poor economy maybe very short lived.

Cotton – Still going and we are still bullish.  Buy breaks. 

Monday September 17th-

Corn – Higher following wheat and beans.  Harvest pressure is mounting as harvest is ahead of normal.  While I can see the market staying firm for a little longer, I still see a break at some point.  We will be watching the wheat as a catalyst for such an event (read below.)   I am looking at selling some calls if the wheat starts to fade.  This will be a short term trade but it may be the best thing we can do near term for a little coverage.  Buying October Puts may also work since they expire in a few days. 

Wheat –  Dry weather forecasts continue to support wheat.  Australia is burning up according to the bulls in the market and the tonnage could drop another 8 million tons out of their harvest.  Lets put that in perspective.  Current carry over forecasts for the world are at 112  million metric tons.  So we would end up with 104 and during a year we use about 620 million metric tons.  That means a world stocks-to-use ratio of 15%...  THINK ABOUT IT!!!!  For the United states that number comes in a round 17.5%.

Does this deserve $9.00 wheat???   Corn stocks-to-use is at 13% and coarse grains stock-to-use is at 11% world wide.  Should wheat enjoy a 3-1 ratio and what about wheat acres being planted???

 My bottom line is this, wheat is running right now because of several factors and most people are not looking at the big picture but the one right in front of them and that is dry weather.  When you step back and look at the total scheme of things, the fundamentals are iffy to say the least.  Does that mean we will break down tomorrow???  Well, it doesn't mean we will or won't, it means we need to be watching for technical signs that this bull move is over.  We have the first signs of it and tomorrow if we see a reversal start to take place, it will carry a lot of weight given the current fundamentals.  If the panic continues, that is fine by me, I will continue to look at selling it when I can.  Just know the fundamentals are more bullish in corn than wheat even with an 8 million ton loss in Australia.

Beans – Cold weather and higher wheat prices took beans higher.  This can continue for a while but I got to say, be careful.  This is the wrong time seasonally for beans to be making highs.  Yes, it is not a normal market and we can still trade over $10.00 and my guess is we will; however, looking at wheat as discussed above we need to be cautious.  Today was not a trend day, today closed where it opened and today was not the day to see how much damage if any occurred from the cold weather.  If we start to see no damage reports and we see harvest pick up steam, we could see a pull back from these levels.  We will be watching and if the wheat starts to give up and beans go with them, it will be a chance to do some selling. 

Rice – Harvest pressure continues in Arkansas with talk of big yields.  We still hold to a rally later this year but near term we could see more pressure.   

Natural Gas – More gains today on cold weather and longer term forecasts.   Still looking good for the bulls here. 

Cattle – Nothing new...still sideways.

Dow –   Quiet again today.  Waiting for more news. 

Cotton – We are in the bull campo but don't see a run away market yet.  Buy breaks.

Friday September 14th-

Corn – Market finished 6 off its high today but managed to stay up.  PB is 50% which indicated a balanced market.  We are working through the harvest and while we see some pressure coming, it looks like the lows are in here and any break is a buying opportunity.  No selling is recommended here at all. 

Wheat –  Market rallied at the end of the day to close firm.  We can see a bounce possible here near term but it is a selling opportunity.  Longer term indicators are still positive but are showing the signs of a possible top.  Remember, as indicators go from bullish to bearish they may take several days after a top or bottom to swing the other direction and actually show a bear move is underway.   

Beans – As we said last night, more strength looks likely; however, we may be approaching some major resistance.  We need more bullish news to propel the market higher near term.  Some consolidation is possible but a top may also be approaching.  Again, no sign of one yet but we have some indicators entering a zone where the market makes tops pre-harvest. 

Rice – Very quiet.  Looks like it is following the grains and not its own fundamentals.  This is very much like rice.  This market has been in a buyers market environment for about 19 years with only small time periods where the seller has had any advantage.  That is going to occur again and sooner than later; however, right now the buyers see a good supply of rice and until we start to see the supply slip lower, we could be yanked around by the rest of the grain complex.  We are buying extreme breaks.  That is we are buying on days when the market is down 15 or more cents. 

Natural Gas – Higher in front of a weekend with tropical activity although it looks like the storm in the Atlantic is weakening.  Traders are now realizing we will not have a record storage supply at the start of the winter season after all.  Thins indicates a low is in and breaks are now fair game for the buyers. 

Cattle – Up 52 in a sideways range. 

Dow –   Very quiet which means Monday may be another huge day.  That is how its been working so we will see if it holds true. 

Cotton – Same thing as I said last night...Longer term I really like cotton.  The fact of a major shift away from cotton is starting to surface and I think we need cotton over 70 cents to keep what acres we have.  Buy breaks here if you want to play the game.  Personally, I like the grains a little more near term but there is coming a real nice move higher here. 

Thursday September 13th-

Corn – We backed off a lot of yesterday's gains but still we are higher than where the report came out on Wednesday.  I see the market sideways and want to buy against the lower channel for a strong bounce later this year. 

Wheat –  More follow through today but the topping action here maybe a longer term process.  By that I mean a few days to a couple of weeks.  A bounce toward the highs is not at all out of the question but rallies now must be sold. 

Beans – Looks like more strength ahead as no sign of major selling is going on here. 

Rice – More selling with the wheat today as the market corrects off of the recent highs.  We are in buy mode on this break. 

Natural Gas – Just as I said last night, the market took all the gains from yesterday out of the price as the hurricane was too small and didn't hurt any of the gas structures.  The next area of concern is in the Atlantic and that one needs to be watched.  Looks like right now it will not be a gulf storm.

Cattle – Nothing new.  Cash is holding so futures remains quiet.

Dow –   Earnings is sending stocks higher but guidance is not that good so look out.  I think the Fed will cut but it will be a buy the rumor sell the fact on the 18th so here is your chance to get out before the other shoe drops. 

Cotton – Longer term I really like cotton.  The fact of a major shift away from cotton is starting to surface and I think we need cotton over 70 cents to keep what acres we have.  Buy breaks here if you want to play the game.  Personally, I like the grains a little more near term but there is coming a real nice move higher here. 

Wednesday September 12th-

Corn – We covered all short calls this morning right after the open with wheat selling off early and corn turning higher on the day.  Boy did it turn higher.  Up 15 1/2 as wheat finished limit down.  We went through this in detail this morning and pointed out we are in a strange situation where all the markets but wheat need to buy acres.  We saw some of that competition today as beans and corn moved higher even with a bearish report for corn.  While I think we could still see some selling here with harvest ramping up, I think today confirms our strategy and we want to buy breaks from here.

The main issue with the report this morning is the drop in ethanol usage.  That could be mentioned more and more and keep a major rally from starting until we see that demand factor change back to the bull camp.    

Wheat –  "I give the odds 80% that tomorrow is going to be a down day at the close."... From our comments last night.

Wheat closed limit down today after trading higher overnight and then right after the report but when it couldn't get sharply higher and sold off, it was over.  We took a small short trade today taking our own advice but I got to tell you.  I day traded for a nice pop and tonight I am back out.  Tomorrow we could see a sharp break but this market is going to be crazy and a rally back toward $9.00 is not totally out of the question but it should be sold just like today. 

We went through this market in detail this morning and I told you of the "fly in the ointment" and warned you starting three days ago that the report could be the final straw in this major bull market.  Until further notice, traders must assume the market HAS TOPPED and sell any rally.  If we gap lower tomorrow and never see the light of day locking limit down again, we will confirm a spike top for sure but I think the market could have some real chop near term and rallies should be sold during this time frame; however, be ready for sharp moves in both directions. 

Beans – The report was neutral but the market rallied in a race with corn to see who could rally the most.  We are in the phase of buying acres and the fact is, we don't have enough acres to go around with current supplies and demand.  Buy breaks here as well especially if we can get any type of a leg down.

Rice – The report was neutral and when wheat broke rice sold off to finish down a little.  Lets see...wheat has made new contract highs over the past couple of months by almost $4.00 and rice is still way under its contract high and today someone sold rice because wheat was down...OK...makes total sense...???

The fact remains that rice buyers are not in any hurry because they thing rice farmers will plant rice at a loss to keep the mills in business.  Let me say if you are selling here in Texas at $4.00 your doing your part.  I am not selling anything here with March rice almost $12.00.   Fact is rice needs more acres or we will have a major shortage and domestic rice prices have about 300% range up before affecting demand.  That is not true in the export market but end users are getting burned in everything except rice and cotton right now and they will start to take notice. 

Once we are over 50% harvested, look for selling to totally dry up except for the mills who can sell large quantities and charge it to their farmers (who could that be???)   I doubt they want to do that in face of what could be a major short squeeze in the longer term picture.

Natural Gas – Huberto is headed right for the major gas and gasoline refinery system in Texas.  With his 55 to 65 MPH winds he will do little to no damage but traders have learned not to be caught flat footed.  Even so, the rally today is over done but could start higher until we see land fall.  Look for the rally today to be totally deflated pretty fast; however, there is another storm brewing and this one may not be so little.

Cattle – Down 60 and looking at fundamentals with the economy and cattle demand.  Look for more sideways action unless the stocks really break.

Dow –   Down 16. 

Cotton – Nothing new.  We will look at the report for guidance.

Tuesday September 11th-

Corn – Down today in front of what most believe will be a bearish S&D report.  We expect the USDA to increase the carryover and production.  Anything over 13.2 billion will send corn lower assuming the carryover follows with it.  A 1.55 billion bushel carryover number is expected.  We will be looking at the wheat numbers as well for direction here.  Corn may not be able to make new lows given the value of the dollar, wheat's sharp rise and beans holding over $9.00 in November of 2008.  We will be selling Puts on a sharp break in the days ahead.  We remain short the calls but may bring some of them in on a sharp day down tomorrow. 

Wheat – Panic buying in front of the USDA report sent Wheat sharply higher at the close.  Tonight's trade will be most interesting but in any event, $8.90 was the close today in December wheat and $9.00 could happen overnight; however, this has gotten crazy and while we have been patient and remain so as far as selling short, "buy the rumor sell the fact" has got to be a major warning signal in front of this report.  If the report is on the numbers tomorrow or not as bad as the trade thought, we will end tomorrow 20 cents lower to LIMIT DOWN!!!  How is that for a prediction???  It is possible we get a bullish report that sends profit takers into the market in droves after the report as well.  I give the odds 80% that tomorrow is going to be a down day at the close.  So...How about a monthly spread trade??  NOT ON MY LIFE!!!  The fun thing is that I know there is coming a great short trade and keeping my powder dry is going to work very well.   I will not pick the top even though I am so sure it is occurring right here in this weeks time frame. 

Could I be wrong??? Sure...been there and done that!!!  For that very reason, I will keep my hands in my pocket and wait for the turn.  Look for a crazy....CRAZY market here tomorrow. 

Beans – Not much higher but beans need more bullish news to run higher.  Tomorrow's report will help traders focus on near term price conditions. 

Rice – A hook reversal down today but on extremely low volume from all appearances.  We will get the numbers tomorrow and then make our market strategy.

Natural Gas – A little higher as Gas flirts with the $6.00 level.  PB is back at 50% which may indicate a bull leg is trying to start or that the rally has balanced the books and we could head right back lower.  Look for a sideways tilt to form with moves in both directions near term. 

Cattle – The Dow was sharply higher but cattle held steady.  As I said last night..."The risk to the down side maybe $7.00 to $10.00 but it will take the S&P really moving sharply lower and a real recession scare to make that happen."

Dow –   Up 180 on earnings which is old news...future news is turning and that is what the stocks must fight through. 

Cotton – Nothing new.  We will look at the report for guidance.

Monday September 10th-

Corn – While lower today, corn finished off its lows and near highs.  Looking at the chart starts to get is thinking that the market is entering  and maybe has been in a sideways range for some time.   The report this week will tell us a lot about the pricing of corn and while I am bullish longer term, near term I can see a check of the $3.35 to $3.20 level in December.  It will take wheat topping to allow it based on what we see in the market right now.  

Wheat – Still no sign of a top.  The market back off its highs but we are not seeing the selling in the old crop to confirm a top.  Can December climb to $9.00?  Sure, but there needs to be more bullish news to take it there and that could come from weather conditions overseas.  In the report on Wednesday, the key factor is going to be the world supply of wheat as that continues to drive the markets higher.   

Beans – Another strong day in beans and I don't see a top forming here either.  There is plenty of room for more advancement in the beans.  With Nov of 2008 trading over $9.00, we should start to see some real interest in corn farmers switching to beans.  Even so, this market is still bullish and longer term I want to buy breaks.

Rice – Up 14 and on the verge of a breakout.  It is no secret I have been bullish rice as anyone can tell by looking back in the archives of this webpage; even so, where do we really want to own this one?  For now it is on breaks but when I see November trading over $11.50, this one could well be on the way to $12.50.  Rice MUST buy acres longer term.  Let's see, $5.00 a bushel rice or $9.00 a bushel beans???  Slam Dunk!!!

Natural Gas – Sharply higher.  This rally could hold for a while.

Cattle – Quietly higher.  Looking at economic issues now as the economy will affect beef prices.  The risk to the down side maybe $7.00 to $10.00 but it will take the S&P really moving sharply lower and a real recession scare to make that happen. 

Dow –   Up 14 after down 250.  No follow thorough but there wasn't a rally either.  Lets face it, if the economy is going to slow dramatically which I think it will, multiples on the Price to Earnings ratio's are way too high.  Stocks are overvalued here.  We are out and actually looking to short the  S&P using ETF's. 

Cotton – Nothing new.  We will look at the report for guidance.

Friday September 7th-

Corn – Higher today based on early buying from corn spreads but later on the collapse on the collapse of the dollar.  This is a macro explanation of the corn going higher yesterday and really is not a good reason.  Think about it for a moment.  We go down on harvest pressure which is short term as we are cutting corn but then we rally on the weakness of the dollar which in the longer term future will increase demand??  Don't get me wrong, I totally agree with the idea of a lower dollar.  I have been a bear in the dollar market for two years and it is going lower; however, when the news or the rally is a much further distant event believe me, no one understands why corn was higher and that is very interesting.  We will be watching this very close early next week as it has our attention.   

Wheat – Sharply higher today in December but July was sharply lower.  A top in the new crop is likely now and the old crop will probably push higher into new all time highs early in the week.  We will be watching the Wednesday report for it's impact on this rally.  If you want to trade this one be patient.  A great trade is coming.

Beans – As I said last night, beans can rally with the ol crop wheat as cover.  Watch for a change in direction around the report on Friday.  Not that I am saying it will happen but it is something we will watch for.

Rice – Up 10 with everything else.  We will wrath for more upside here as well and then look at the report numbers o see what the USDA can do to us.

Natural Gas – Lower and building a base.

Cattle – Lower with the Dow.  This is an economic sell off as the stocks fell and ideas the economy is slowing and that it will affect meat consumption.

Dow –   Down 250 on job growth falling into the negative numbers for the first time in 4 years.  We think a recession is coming and have been very vocal abut that fact for months.  Of coarse we all know that eventually we will be right however, our idea is that a recession will occur prior to next summer.  The Fed looks to have been too slow in dropping interest rates but we will wait and see about that. Anyway, P/E ratios are too high in a recession and I think the market is going to work lower.

Cotton – Nothing new. 

Thursday September 6th-

Corn – Confirmation today of the bearish tilt to the market near term.  Sell rallies.  We have sold the Calls in December an October and could sell some in November as well.  Over the next several weeks we will begin looking to sell puts in areas we think have support potential.

Wheat – Today’s break may have corrected the near term overbought condition of the market but it is still no confirmation that a op is in place.   The gap is still there and today all we did is test the gap and then close 10 cents higher than the top of the gap area.  Most techs will tell you that is bullish.  I am not trading it yet and still feel like there is plenty of time.  I will let it turn before shorting using short calls as my first type of entry.

Beans – Down 9 and we have short term sell signals.  Don’t trust them just yet but they look pretty good.  If wheat can bounce back to test the highs, I think beans will work higher with them.  They are still following. 

Rice – Lower but with little conviction.  We want to buy this break as the time is running out and longer term fundamentals are bullish.  We may not get too aggressive until we see what the USDA does to us on the September report.

Natural Gas – Nothing new here.  Market needs more news.

Cattle – Nothing new here.  We are still sideways.   

Dow –   We had bad news yesterday with good news today.  Market is back and forth and really looking horrible.  We are still in cash.

Cotton – Nothing new.  Last night pretty much says it all.

Wednesday September 5th-

Corn – Corn couldn't hang with wheat today as the market looked at huge yields and increased carry over and dropped 7 cents with a reversal down.  It is not a big one but tomorrow needs to see some follow through.  PB has never gone over 50% which has made this rally very suspect in its formation and tonight, we could be looking at the first day down of a major correction which should test lows and probably take them out. 

Wheat – After the open, the market broke and looked like it was ready to finish off the drive higher but as I have seen many times, today was a day where the first profit takers were dead wrong and the market turned and rallied right back to limit up.  Even so, the market failed to get down to yesterday's high so now we have an exhaustion gap formation which indicates a possible top in the next 5 days 70% of the time.  Not that this is a normal market or situation but neither is any gap for that matter.  $8.50 is in sight and maybe hit in tonight's trade.  $9.00 remains possible and I still in no means would be short.  There is coming a time and it is going to be something when it happens.  What scares me is the side affects on the other markets.  By the way...PB is 91% in September wheat tonight with Dec at 88.6%.   July is at 82%.  

Beans – Like the corn, beans couldn't stay with the wheat and it should have.  The reversal today sets up a test of $8.85 and if that is taken out, the beans could have s significant correction.  Not sure right now what stance to take so we will watch the market tomorrow and make a decision as we watch wheat deal with $8.50 or even higher tomorrow. 

Rice – Wheat couldn't help the rice test the major resistance at $11.40.  Profit taking was certainly a factor given the the quick 80 cents up over the past 5 days.  July wheat wasn't very strong today as it was up only 5 cents so some of the pressure on new crop prices maybe factored in but longer term we have no change in our ideas.  We will one any break here into the next year and especially the next.   

Natural Gas – Up 21 as we have put in a low and now see some profit taking in the form of short covering.  Winter is around the corner and longer term weather forecasts will now become the major talk of the trade. 

Cattle – Nothing new here.  We are still sideways.   

Dow –   Sharply lower on housing and employment data indicating that indeed the economy may slow.  While I am not a big bear, I do see a major correction coming here and I mean it may be a big one.  It is like there are a lot of Samson's  on wall street who have had their hair cut off and don't know it.  The news ahead may not be pretty and multiples will not hold over 24 on average if this economy is slowing down into a recession. 

Cotton – Down hard today with the rest of the grains.  PB is at 50%.  How is that for sitting on the fence. 

Tuesday September 4th-

Corn – Strong move higher as wheat locks limit up and feed users who can switch signal a move to corn coverage.  The panic buying is fueled by a total lack of sellers at this price and belief wheat may need to press the $8.50 level before finding sellers and rationing the wheat.  Corn can move toward the $3.70 level in December if wheat can move toward the $8.50 to $8.75 level as for now it is pure panic.  The USDA report comes out the 12th which is what traders are looking at for their next basic fundamental picture.  We could stay strong into that report. 

We have shifted to a yellow condition for corn.  Not that I think this is a great time to sell because I don't but it may get worse down the road a bit.  Store what ever you can and remember..."this is not your father's grain market."

Wheat – No follow through on Friday's reversal as the market explodes higher.  OK...I said last Friday that the odds are increasing that we are at a top.  I hold to that tonight however, I am thinking in time not price.  I feel we are very close to a top but price wise it could still come from 50 cents to a dollar higher.  At this rate, we will be there in two days.  The panic in wheat will only be stopped when the commercials stop it and right now they are not in the selling mode.  Look for a violent top and I mean a violent one.  Technically the market is in a blow off phase but that doesn't mean anything.  DO NOT BE SHORT!!!  There is coming a great ride to the downside for bears but there is no way in heck I am going to sell this one until we get the market falling away from the high and there is no sign of that right here. 

Wheat seed is in huge demand right now as many farmers who can switch or add wheat are trying to get in position to do that.  Even we are buying wheat seed to plant and looking for a place to sell.  What a market to watch.

Beans – Huge day up as concerns for beans and feed prices soared today.  Wheat is still the driving force as feeders look to alternatives for wheat.  For now, it looks like beans could run to test highs as there are also concerns for yields in beans beside the wheat conditions.  No reason to sell anything here but we may add to our sales positions if we start to see reversal actions which follow through.    Remember the term follow through.  It will be the key to a trend change.

Rice – Up 16 with little selling pressure.  We are still below the highs but with yields in the South down and harvest moving into the delta, selling pressure from old crop is about gone and new crop may be short enough for there to be no harvest pressure this time around.  We are long here and want to hold in those positions.  We will own more if we can get a good break which is possible but only if the wheat makes a huge correction in the next few weeks. 

Natural Gas – Up 30 as I type this with a strong bias to the upside.  Look for this rally to continue near term but fundamentals are not in favor of the bulls for an extended long bull move. 

Cattle – We are just fine being long in the field here.  Cattle will not break with feed costs so high. 

Dow –   Up 90 and moving toward buy signals.  It will be interesting to see the guidance from theses companies as they report earnings.  

Cotton – Market is higher and looking more like it is trying to enter a bull move phase.  I would not be selling here until it confirms to us it is not trending higher but it sure looks like it will right now.