Thursday September 30th - 

Corn - No surprise one way or the other in the USDA numbers this morning.  The fact is this crop is still going to be big and with the report coming out in a few days, the market will stay under pressure.  The frost this weekend is expected to finish off the growing season and could cause some loss in yield but there is so much corn, it's not going to matter much.  We want to stay out of futures hoping for a good basis in the cash market soon.

Soybeans - $5.20 to $5.10 is still our target window to the downside.  Last night we cautioned that the market was set up to work lower and that is what it is doing.  Look for the price in our target window maybe tomorrow. 

Wheat -  OUCH!!! Big time loss today with the reports way more bearish than anyone thought.  We got out of all futures and sold some puts on the break today but I won't be in them very long as we will start to roll down over the next few days.  That means we buy in the higher puts and sell lower until the market shows we have bottomed and then we will buy calls out right.  Long term remember this is a buy back position, not a spec so we are buying back wheat sold at much higher levels.  We will roll down using 3 to 5 cents as out differential.  Near term, this market may stay bearish.  A close over last nights close is the buy signal right now.   

Rice - Nice rally today in rice with all the other grains lower.  That is a good sign and once again we think the market can rally toward the $7.20 level.  I heard some talk that overseas prices were higher and could lead to higher WMP prices ahead.  I don't have much to go on so we remain out of rice looking for a reason to trade it.  Cash prices in Texas are around $7.30 so the futures is inline right now.

Cattle - We are out waiting for clear direction.  If there is more selling tomorrow, we could se this market go negative again.  PB is at 48% which is neutral to bearish and a move under 86.90 could bring in more selling.  Long term we like the market. 

Wednesday September 29th -  EVERYONE PLACE YOUR BETS

Corn - Tomorrow morning's USDA stocks report is expected to show 953 million bushels in storage as of August 31st.  USDA in September said it would be 954 million bushels.  The averages are from 907 to over 1 billion bushels.  Today's market sets us up to continue heading toward the $2.00 market as the market has balanced its oversold condition.  Look below to our comments on last Thursday when we stated the 60 minute PB (mathematical Percent Bullish) was at 11% and that we expected a bounce.  We have had the bounce over the last few days and the PB today at 11:30 was 52% but closed back at 40%.  Tomorrow's report will be key but again, more and more talk of harvest levels of 11.3 to 11.5 billion bushels for the upcoming October report is going to keep a lid on any advances.  If the number comes in that high, we are going to go below $1.97 in my opinion so now is not the time to be buying corn.

Soybeans - $5.20 to $5.10 is still our target window to the downside.  The rally over the past three days has balanced the market just like in the corn but today's close, even though it was higher, was on the lows and the 60 minute PB is below 50%.  We could work lower the next few days if there isn't a surprise in the report tomorrow.

Wheat -  We dropped off 50% of our long position yesterday and today we got the bounce.  Figures.  We are long only 25% and today's bounce, while important, didn't turn the system back up.  As I said last week, we may have to get out and climb right back in.  What I did in my account was sell some $3.10 puts because I don't see the market below that level.  I sold 2 for every one futures contract I sold.  That will work only for so long if the market starts to go higher.  The report tomorrow could have some impact on the current rally.

Rice - The bounce in the grains early sent this market higher only to see rice futures fall back below yesterday's close at the end.  Is the rally over??  Don't know yet but the indicators shows the market balanced and ready to assault the lows.  The report tomorrow does not include rice so it will be a "coat tail" day, looking at what is happening in the other grains.

Cattle - We were stopped out of all cattle positions today with a little profit after the market moved over the 88.15 level.  The chart is not looking near as bearish and the fundamentals remain bullish longer term.  We are glad to be out for now with announcements on Canadian beef back into the United States and American beef going back into Japan, looming on the horizon.

Tuesday September 28th -

Corn - After locking in the LDP at 30 cents yesterday, the rate dropped to 25 cents for Jackson County last night even though the market was up only 2 cents yesterday.  We now will wait for a good cash basis to sell corn.  That could happen soon in South Texas as corn harvest congestion gets into place up north.  Today's bounce in corn was not very powerful so a test of the lows is likely in the next few days.

Soybeans - $5.20 to $5.10 is still our target window.  There was little follow through in the market today so we might see another press toward the lows.  The short positions in corn and beans are huge but so is the crop.

Wheat -  We dropped off 50% of our long position today on the push into new lows and will hold the 25% long on our total buy back.  Downside objective is now $3.12 1/2 and I will buy it against there with the odds of new lows as extremely unlikely.  There is just too much weather uncertainty ahead for wheat and a normal rally time starts in early to mid-October.

Rice - WMP was unchanged today.  The futures traded lower early but bounced back at the close and this  holds with my comments last night..."we can see a bounce to $7.10 to $7.20.  Even so, our target will remain at $6.70."   I want to sell this bounce and will be ready to sell it when I get the signal to pull the trigger.  One thing to remember is that the USDA's average farm price projection is $7.00.  If we do get a good break into the low $6.00 level, we may have a great buying opportunity.  I want to make sure our long term outlook is for higher prices.      

Cattle - The market has slowed its movement and may settle into a sideways pattern.  As I said last night...."This move down may be short lived but we remain short with our stop at $88.17."

Monday September 27th -

Corn - Well, it rallied to day but didn't hold.  Technically, today's high becomes resistance as the market failed on the rally at that price.  We did recommend locking in LDP on all corn in our area.  With corn down 3 cents last Friday, they didn't lower the LDP at all for today so we want to lock it in with this price increase today. 

Soybeans - $5.20 to $5.10 is still our target window.  The rally today needs some more fuel in it for tomorrow.  Already there is a forecast for dry weather in Brazil this year but it is too early to even think about that.   

Wheat -  Today's break turns the market down and move under today's lows is going to be tough to swallow, but we will need to lighten the load.  We want to sell 50% of our current position tomorrow on a 3.17 stop.  My guess is that will not happen but it could.  Today's low is right on the trend line.  PB dropped under 50% which is bearish but it is still in the neutral window of 45-55% at 47%.  A move under $3.17 will tip that number below 45%.  It is true, I am giving this trade the maximum distance I can.

Rice - Today's bounce was expected as we have been suggesting but it didn't go very far.  It may not be over just yet as we can see a bounce to $7.10 to $7.20.  Even so, our target will remain at $6.70.  

Cattle - Cattle worked lower but live cattle in December was down only 47 points while the feeders lost over 100 points.    This move down may be short lived but we remain short with our stop at $88.17.

Friday September 24th - 

Corn - OK...so somebody sawed off the limb I was out on.  The market didn't rally and now my guess is Tuesday will be the rally day.  FARMERS IN TEXAS IN ON FARM STORAGE...BE READY TO  LOCK IN LDP  FOR 30 DAYS MONDAY!!!  IF IN COMMERCIAL, GET READY TO POP IT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS!!!  Ready our Weekly Comments for more details on corn.

Soybeans - $5.20 to $5.10 is our target window and I think it will be there by Tuesday of next week. 

Wheat -  This market just can't get going with corn and beans in the tank.  Long-term we still see wheat higher but we need for a low to occur in corn for the wheat to start pulling its self out of the doldrums. 

Rice - Our target of $6.70 is now with-in striking distance as head for the end of this first leg down.  Longer term, I still have a $6.00 target which looks more and more likely.

Cattle - Yesterday's positive action was taken over by more bearish news today.  The close in the middle of the range has everyone scratching their heads.  This move down may be short lived but we remain short with our stop at $88.17.

Thursday September 23rd - 

Corn - FARMERS IN TEXAS IN ON FARM STORAGE...LOCK IN LDP  FOR 30 DAYS TOMORROW!!!!  IF IN COMMERCIAL, GET READY TO POP IT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS!!!

Well, we hit the target today of $2.07.  Will it go lower?  Probably.  There was no reversal so I wouldn't be surprised if we don't work lower still.  Tonight's PB is at 23% and the 60 minute is at 11%.   As I said last night, we are close to a low and I expect a rally here tomorrow.  Yep...I'm going out on a limb and say the market will close higher tomorrow or if we break early, will close unchanged which could signal a possible low near term.  I would like to see a weekly reversal to bottom corn on the long term charts but that could be awhile from happening.  The LDP of 27 cents today should be higher tomorrow and I would take a 30 day short at it tomorrow if on farm.  If in commercial, get ready.  This is an aberration that we should jump at.

Soybeans - The market rallied into the close today but still was lower.  We may have seen signs of an exhaustion day in beans but no real confirmation.  Tomorrow I expect firmer trade at some time.  We remain short and will stay that way for now.  Remember, the market is always the most bearish at the bottom of the move. 

Wheat - The drama continues.  Read our last few days comments and you will see we went through today's break.  The market gunned the stops under $3.25 and fell to $3.21 1/2.  I expected possibly $3.20 on such a "pop" down.  At the close December was down only 1/2 cent and back over $3.25 (barely) so now we will see what the market has in it tomorrow.  I'm still long. Today's low becomes major support near term.

Rice - Down 8 cents again today.  If the other grains can rally tomorrow, we might set up a test of the backside of the trend line.  I doubt we get there but we might rally back toward the $7.20 level which is a good place to start looking at selling more rice.  For specs today, we covered some shorts looking at how the other grains closed.  Nice profit cashed in and we will resell a good rally. I look for the market to try and test today's high in the next few days.

Cattle - I don't like what I saw today.  We got under $87 which we had wanted and there was little to no selling.  $88.15 is our stop for this trade and if we get back there, we should move higher.

Wednesday September 22nd - 

Corn - We are now 3 cents from our target and again, there is no reason to buy the market yet.  Looking back in past years, the market normally heads lower into the first weeks of October on years like this.  That doesn't mean it won't be different this year but what is going to turn it around?  No frost is in the forecast to finish the growing season so this death spiral may continue; however, the 60 minute chart is now showing a 16% PB calculation with a strength index up at 55 which could mean we are close to a low.  Maybe not the low but a low.  Look for a bounce maybe tomorrow or Friday.  We will wait to buy it as we have plenty of time.

Soybeans - No rally to close the gap sets up a move on down to $5.20 in the beans.  We remain short and don't want to touch anything here just yet.  PB is still at 38% which is higher than corn's 26%.  This situation  should turn around and soon.

Wheat - Yep we did it...(read last night).  Were we faked into a bad trade?  Well, it's bad right now; however, the chart is still bullish, the trend is up, PB is 55%, and fundamentals are changing.  If you look at the chart, this back and forth yo-yo type trade is indicative of a change in direction.  Traders were quoted as saying we were lower because we couldn't go higher early.  Over night the market was up over 1 cent but we opened lower in a vacuum of buying and fell under heavy fund pressure.  As I said Monday, I'm nervous but the market still is holding positive ground.  Look for $3.25 in December to be taken out tomorrow to gun the stops under that price.  I have a downside "POP" target of $3.20 which is a break I don't want to go through but will.  The real stops are at $3.18 as I said last week.  I'm going to stay with this tomorrow.  Remember, we are only 50% long so we are right on half and wrong on half. 

Rice - World Market Price was down 24 cents yesterday so the market opened down a whole 3 cents.  Sold off, rallied and then gave up at the end but the trading is very quiet.  We remain short 20% and want to sell a rally and so far nothing.  A move under $7.00 may pick up the selling and we will be looking then for a reason to lift hedges.  So far, no such reason exists. 

Cattle - If you think I'm nervous trading wheat, I'm right down terrified of trading cattle.  We are short 20% today after the market turned under 50% on the Mathematical Percent Bullish (PB) calculation we use.  If we can close under $87.00 in December, we should head for $84.00.  There is just too much cash cattle upfront right now to push much higher but long term I can see it even higher with cattle production expected to be very low in the 4th quarter.  Hogs remain strong but way over bought and if they start to correct, we might get a cleaning out in the cattle futures; however, this is one where my head and my heart disagree. 

Tuesday September 21st - 

Corn - Not much of a turn around today but then I wasn't expecting it.  This was a ho...hum day and really points to more pressure ahead.  We might rally before we get the last gasp but everyone knows the big crop is out there, now we wait for these short Specs to start taking profit and my guess is they will wait a little longer.  We want to buy this one but not yet.

Soybeans - There is more room for lower lows before this one is done.  I still like long corn short beans.  We will talk about that trade in the next few days.

Wheat - Well we did it.  We stuck to our guns and bought another 25% of our position in December and will now hold that to see if we can make new highs.  The PB is at 57% and major sell signals remain at $3.18 or $3.15 1/2 absolutely worst case. 

Rice - World Market Price was down 24 cents today.  Will that carryover into the futures market tomorrow?  I think it might.  Cash bids are up in Texas based on premiums and they could go higher with the change today and maybe bigger changes in the future.  I had hoped for a rally but with the change in WMP it might be hard to get near term.  We are short 20% and want to sell a rally. 

Cattle - Interesting...We may be getting ready to jump back in here short.  Remember, even if I short it, it will be a short term sell.  Longer term I like cattle in this price range.

Monday September 20th - 

Corn - We have now hit all of our objectives and we have reason to believe we are close to the lows.  Even so, don't try and pick a bottom.  If you can't stand it, sell a $2.00 December put but don't buy the futures yet.  Tomorrow is Tuesday and we all know about Turn-around Tuesdays.  If we drop to $2.07 tomorrow early in the day, I might take a shot but will still sell puts until I see a reason to own it.  PB tonight is 27% and I doubt it gets below 20% on this go around; however,  I must be honest, this break has gotten to $2.12 much faster than I expected.  That might mean it goes lower than I expect as well.  Long corn short beans should still work but could take some heat near term.

Soybeans - New lows today as we have been suggesting for the past several weeks.  The gap today actually sets up a target of $4.48.  Is that possible???  Yes, given the world picture, a move toward this level is possible; however, it is not that likely.  What we need to happen is for the beans to rally and close the gap left today.  We remain short 75% in futures and 100% sold for cash only traders.  Let's see how Tuesday trades.

Wheat - We are now 25% long adding another 1/8th of our position at $3.26 1/2 today.  Our average is now at $3.29 1/4.  We will hold this position.  The PB is at 55% and major sell signals are at $3.18 or $3.15 1/2 absolutely worst case.  A close back over $3.33 1/2 is our next buy signal.  We will buy 12 1/2% on a $3.33 1/2 stop and another 12 1/2% on a close over $3.33 1/2. That gets us to 50% bought of our base position.  Am I nervous?  You bet I am.  I look at the other grains and say how can we rally much given their situation but then again, stranger things have happened. 

Rice - We are 20% short.  The market has not attempted to test the backside of the broken trend line so we might get another chance to sell this one higher than the $7.16 level it closed at tonight.  The chart objective is $6.70 near term and we still have $6.00 targets long-term.  That is a hard pill to swallow right now.

Cattle - Still no sell signal here as the market holds up in this current level.  We might still get to $90.50 in December.

Friday September 17th -

General Comment - Read our weekly comments for more details.  Today's trade was not very eventful but the markets sold off in all the grains.  There is nothing left for the market to look at in regards to a "weather scare" so a down drift over the next couple of weeks is likely but here is something to think about...

 Last year, the market made its Supply side low on October 20th.  In 2002 there was no supply side bottom as was the case in 1999 when the markets continues into lows into December of each year.  The difference, low demand in those two years.  This year is shaping up for there to be a huge demand into 2005, so I still look for a low in the next 6 weeks.  BTW, from September 17th to the low in 2003, the market sold off 10cents.  That is what we think could be the worst case situation as of tonight.  

Thursday September 16th - 

Corn - Market moving toward $2.12 now but in the final throws of this bear market.  No reason to do anything yet.

Soybeans - Look for market to break into new lows before this is over with.  It could happen tomorrow.

Wheat - We are long on a small portion.  A close over $3.40 sets up move to $3.55.

Rice - Not much follow through but the market looks weaker.  A close back over $7.50 negates sell signal but a move under $7.30 should propel this market back to contract lows. 

Wednesday September 15th -  MAJOR SELL SIGNALS IN RICE TODAY!!!

Corn - All forecasters now agree with our guy...IVAN will come in closer to New Orleans than the main peninsula of Florida and will go very slow over the delta.  Soybeans could get in trouble but there are plenty of beans out of the path of the storm and that will keep the lid on any advances here.  A close under $2.17 sets up the move to $2.12 and we want to start watching for a reason to own some March calls or short some March puts. 

Soybeans - We got a bounce this morning off of China news and Ivan but the market sold off and sets us up for another assault of the lows.  DO NOT BE LONG HERE. 

Wheat - We moved higher in wheat and should continue to trade sideways to higher.  I still want to own a break here and the way it traded today we might get one.  The market closed higher but in the middle of the range. 

Rice - Our first sell signal occurred today on all the future charts and in the indicators on January and March futures.  November almost went short on the indicators and will tomorrow if it goes below the $7.40 level.  The problem with this sell off is that we can see a target down to $6.00.  A move under $7.00 will expedite the move lower.  Is this possible?  It seems to be extreme but when you see the USDA still holding their average US farm price at $7.00 and March is trading at $7.85, then there is a lot of room to the down side.  Harvest yields are big in Arkansas and if tonight pit report shows commercial selling, I'll short this thing tomorrow.  Be prepared, the sell off could be sharp if commercials really pound the market.

Cattle - Not much today but the weekly chart looks like it is setting up a head and shoulders formation.  A move under 86 cents is a major sell signal.  There is a 50-50 chance we rally to test the top of the formation at $89.50 to $90.50.  By the way, the Funds are the only longs in the market with Specs and Commercials short.  If funds start to exit, we could free fall for about 3 cents.  

Tuesday September 14th -

Corn - We have lifted all positions in corn.  We bought back 1/2 at $2.19 1/2 and the other half at $2.18.  Why?  Thee is little doubt we could extend this move to $2.12 but that is where we will be buying.  Near term we want out because we are in the window to bottom the market and Hurricane Ivan's forecasted move to the North East is WRONG...it will come in closer to Louisiana than Florida and then will stall over the delta.  That should bring in short covering for beans and will pop up the corn.  You didn't know I was a weatherman did you.  Yep...Texas A&M meteorology 101.  I also did the weather on Channel 3 in Bryan Texas for a year.  BUT... It's my main weather man that says the current models being used by most traders is dead wrong.  I'll go with him. 

Soybeans - The move down today was disappointing to say the least.  Tomorrow, Hurricane Ivan will start to have some affect on the price of beans.  I'm not trading them, but I wouldn't be short if you see a move in the landfall location toward Louisiana. 

Wheat - Nothing different from last night.  We said "The market is overbought.  We should see some sideways to lower movement as we balance the condition.  I still want to own it at $3.26 if we can break to there.  I may have to move up the price in the next few days."  Let's see if we can get down there.  Hold your current position.

Rice - We did get a Hurricane Ivan bounce yesterday and it held up today.  Interestingly, we don't see the Hurricane affecting rice as much as beans and cotton.  We are out looking for a reason to trade.  I'm looking for a sell signal to short the market.

Cattle - The market didn't do anything today.  If that happens tomorrow, I'll put back on 50% of our position going into the close.  Looks like a classic top may be in place in the next week.

Monday September 13th -

Corn - If you read Friday's comments you can see we expected the break to $2.19 and we got it today.  Tomorrow we may try for $2.17 but we are now in the window as far as I'm concerned, and it's time to take in our shorts as we have hit our main objective.  Tomorrow, we will take in 1/2 of our short on the open and another 1/2 at $2.18 or $2.22 which ever comes first.  Yes, it may go on down to $2.12 but it's time to move into a position of longer term buy back.  I don't want to own it yet; however, I do want to own wheat for a short term play.

Soybeans - Nothing here today.  We closed in the upper part of the range today so we might get an "Ivan" bounce.  It should be sold.

Wheat - We bought 12 1/2% of our base position in Wheat today at $3.34.  The market is overbought.  We should see some sideways to lower movement as we balance the condition.  I still want to own it at $3.26 if we can break to there.  I may have to move up the price in the next few days..

Rice - We might get a hurricane bounce here as well, but again, I don't have much to say for rice.  Yields appear to be very good in Arkansas so we should see some selling pressure soon here.  I think I'll sell this bounce.

Cattle - We were stopped out of all positions here with a profit.  Not as good as we would have gotten if I could have just pulled the trigger Thursday when I debated it; however, we will put the whole position back on in one trade if we get a good reason to sell.

Friday September 10th -

General Comment - The report today was bearish corn, bullish beans, neutral wheat.  At day's end the beans didn't open as high as expected and broke to major support.  Corn opened as expected and finished lower and wheat ended much higher.  With the report behind us, trade will focus on the final days of this supply driven market. 

Corn - The trade expected a lower yield in today's report as compared to last month but the USDA increased yield and production and the market broke to new lows.  Over this weekend, I expect bulls to get a feel better idea just before the market opens on Monday and we break to test the $2.19 and possibly $2.17 level early in the week.  Bulls will then decide if they want to marry the position.  For us, we are 50% sold in futures, and want to cover the position on this break.  Long-term, I like the market to move higher but again, DO NOT BE LONG right now.  PB is only at 34% even with the new lows, so we have room to roam lower and not be oversold.

Soybeans - We remain 75% sold at $6.56 in November.  The break today gives us almost $1.00 in this new position.  PB is at 41% and with a bullish report today, the close at down 9 cents is not good; however, we did hold support at $5.55.  The problem?  Look for the news from here to have a bearish slant until harvest is almost finished.  Long-term, I expect $5.55 to be taken out.  Today's action was based on world supplies being larger and growing.  The opening call of 10 to 15 cents higher was based on US conditions alone.  Anyone reading the whole WASDE report got an insight that the market might open higher but it wouldn't hold. 

Rice - The report today was a big nothing.  They lower the incoming inventory by 1 million cwt to the surprise of no one.  We said here 10 months ago that the USDA was wrong on their stocks number and by Years end they would take 3 million cwt out of it somewhere.  Next month will be interesting.  In regards to price movement, the USDA raised WMP this week but the action yesterday and today is just plain bearish as we fall 12 cents today.  PB is at 56% for November which is bullish but is down to 48% for September which is bearish.  This one over/one under scenario has been in play for weeks.  A move over 60% in November will shift me to the bull side of the market as this is what it will take to shift the market into an uptrend.  A move under 40% will send me to the short side.  The tug-of-war continues. 

Cattle -  At last, the bounce.  Where will it go?  We have been talking about this bounce for quite awhile.  As we have been saying, look for cash cattle to improve and pull the futures higher, that is occurring.  Resistance is up at $89.50  and then $90.25.  That is where we will add to sales.

Wheat - Today's action was a buy signal.  PB is up to 60% so we took home a 12% long position in wheat at $3.33 1/2 in December.  Calls are next but we think we can wait.  Our stop is at today's lows for now.  We will add on a slight pull back based on out trend following system.  That price is at $3.25 on Monday.  Today's close is above the 9 week MA (moving average) and well over the 21 day MA.  Long Wheat and short corn should work in the weeks ahead.

Thursday September 9th -

General Comment - Due to several meetings, I will not be able to update this page again until after the Friday close.  Tomorrow mornings report will be interesting but not definitive.  The market may bottom in the next few days to a couple of weeks or it could take the October report to finish this move off.  I can see it either way.  If there is no real surprise in the report tomorrow, I look for the market to work lower in the corn and beans; however, if we get a bullish response to a bearish report, we could make the lows sooner than later.  Stay tuned.

Tuesday September 7th -

Corn - Great weather and no sign of a killing frost sent the market towards new lows.  We may get a pause before going below $2.25 but we don't have to.  PB is 39% and the strength index shows no new strength in this move so one bounce may be all we get.  The 9 week average is up at $2.40 and has never turned higher in this recent rally.  I would sell at $2.30 1/2 tomorrow.  My target is $2.19 right now but it could go lower.

Soybeans - We remain 75% sold at $6.56.  The move down today sets us up to test $5.55 and probably take it out.  The risk here is another 75 cents so be careful.  Also, remember, history says that any rally after this break will be small and it will take some time for the market to move back higher.  I'm thinking the March-May time frame is best for buy backs.  This is not the time ti be married to a long bean position.  If your caught, use rallies to sell.   

Rice - World Market Price was up 15 cents today.  I don't have a clue why but this might indicate the USDA is seeing demand in places we don't have information on.  Maybe they will lower the China production in this weeks report.  I don't want to do anything until we see the Friday's numbers.

Cattle -  We continue to hold the 85 level of support.  If we take that out, we will move to 83 quickly. 

Tuesday Morning....6:30 AM....Market sharply lower over night. 

Look for new lows today....We will stay short looking for a reason to cover shorts later this month.

Friday September 3rd -

Corn - With the frost scare over, this market should test lows.  Look for more and more talk about the bumper crop.  Already I have been reading where the September report is almost always lower than August and the crop size grows after word.  I expect the market to pause in this level of support at $2.29 until after the report.  Then we will move based on the numbers and the trades ideas of the crop size.  We remain 50% short after yesterday and will more than likely stay short or even add to positions if we can get a bounce in front of the report.  Long-term we want to own it but not yet.

Soybeans - Same comments as last night....We originally sold 50% of Soybeans at $6.62.  Yesterday we added 25% at $6.44 so that puts us 75% sold at $6.56.  We will not let that position become a looser.  We will cover all shorts at $6.53 on a stop for now.  I can see beans testing their contract low in the next few weeks if the USDA report has more beans than the trade is expecting. 

Rice - We remain out and with the market breaking today I expect the market to once again head for recent lows; however, this one can surprise us.  When in doubt...be out!!

Cattle - We have not taken out the 85 cent level and today the market was fairly quiet.  I still see one bounce and then a test of the 85 cent level.  Next week, we may put our money where our mouth is and buy back in some of our short hedges.  Cash prices will be a key factor for futures next week.

Thursday September 2nd -

Corn - Here we go again...the models flipped back to no frost.  Let me be clear, only one model is doing this and it's the American model (just in name).  The other models have held all week that there would be NO frost.  What will happen tomorrow?  I hope it flips back to a Frost and if it does, SELL IT!!!  We sold 50% today at $2.38 after the market sold off through $2.37 and bounced back higher.  This re-sells our hedge that we covered at $2.29 3/4.  We will add to these positions if we can get a bounce.  Our target is to pull out 7 to 10 cents and then sit on the sideline but buy some call option spreads longer term.  Specifically, buying March Call spreads depending on when we pull the trigger.  As I have said here many times, once the supply scares are finished, we will see one more push lower and I want to buy it.  For now, we will remain short.  

Soybeans - We originally sold 50% of Soybeans at $6.62.  Yesterday we added 25% at $6.44 so that puts us 75% sold at $6.56.  We will not let that position become a looser.  We will cover all shorts at $6.53 on a stop for now. 

Rice - Another day down.  There is nothing to talk about here so we will probably need to wait for the S&D report next Friday. 

Cattle - We continue building a base against the 85 cent level in December Live Cattle.  A bounce is possible from this level but if we go below 85 we should accelerate to 83 cents.  We remain short.

Wednesday September 1st -

Corn - The models flipped back to very cold by the 15th of September and with the slow maturity aspects of the northern corn belt, the market shot upward today to build some more weather premium in the market.  This is good for us as we want to sell this rally.  Some comments today said we could cut 400 million bushels off of the USDA numbers IF there is a frost.  We take our cue from the European models and they do not forecast a frost; however, it does look very cool in about ten days to two weeks.  Once this is all over, we should see the market head for lower levels unless there really is frost damage.  By the end of September, I expect the market lower than it is right now and am looking to sell, not buy this one.  We are out of all hedges but will start replacing them now.  I think December has an outside shot at $2.55 to $2.60 if the weather forecasts can stay cold.  Here is how we will sell starting tomorrow....We want to sell 25% of our hedge position tomorrow at $2.47.  Then sell another 13% at $2.50 and another 12% at 2.53.  If the market breaks below $2.37 then get to 50% immediately.  Hopefully that will not happen until we get some sales on the books a little higher then where we are now.

Soybeans - On the bounce today we got to 75% sold in beans.  W got a big favor with the market heading sharply higher early on the day so we sold the whole 25% at $6.44.  We could see this one move higher still and we will sell the final 25% on the bounce. 

Rice - World market was up but commercials cols instead of bought the news.  The market finished lower and we may see some more downside near term.  We are out waiting for a reason to trade.   We may get some help with the September report but that is several days away.

Cattle - We are building a base against the 85 cent level in December Fat Cattle.  Today while down, was up well off of lows and as we said last night, a bounce before taking out 85 is possible and should be sold.  We will stay short through the bounce, if it happens, as we expect the market to then take out 85 and head for the 83 cent level loner term.