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Friday September 29th -
Corn - After the big move
yesterday, we expected some profit taking and it came in the form of a
hook reversal down. We want to own this lower and still think it's
not time for a straight up move. With that said, there is no way
in heck I am going to be short this market. Even day-trading I
find it hard to go short. We want to own a move back to $2.55 on
Monday and doubt we get it. Risk is a little higher here for the
longs so we need to be careful when putting on positions.
Soybeans - A bullish report this
morning with a bearish response. We want to sell it higher with
the rest of the world.
Wheat - Hook reversal down today
with massive profit taking in the last 15 minutes with no buyers.
We actually traded it short at the end and for better or worse, took
home a short based on the hammer head (hook reversal) down formation (It
won't be the first time I've been wrong). We may see the market a
bit lower early in the week but longer term we want to own the market.
Rice - Who knows. A lot of
talk of one big rice analyst who is commenting on big losses in the
Arkansas rice yields. We don't know based on reports we have but
there is some losses. How much??? Who knows at this point
but I would say they are exaggerated at this point. Even so, the
technical formation is bullish and the market still has over $10.00
written all over it. We are 60% long in buy backs right here and
will use a break to add more.
Cattle - A little hook reversal
up today in cattle but not much of one. We want to sell a good
rally but so far, no cigar. Longer term we are bearish.
Natural Gas - Market reversed
today and this is what we have been waiting for. This bounce
should be sold and lets hope we can get a good one.
Dow - Market is right at
break even for the day as I type this. Nothing new here as I see a
slow and steady push higher near term. Economic data the next
three weeks will be very important in our forecast for a recession by
June of 2007 to be correct.
Thursday September 28th -
Corn - Huge move up today as
wheat explodes and all the funds look for something to trade to make
money. They were in the buying mood as we hit our upside target in
corn of $2.65 ($2.64 3/4 is close enough). remember, that doesn't
mean we are through going higher it just means we have hit our target.
Now we will see what profit taking comes in. Without the funds
buying tomorrow, we will probably give some of the gains up but then a
again, we are still some 15 cents below July's high and longer term I
think we will trade higher then that level in the March contract.
We will buy more on breaks and remain long even through a correction.
Soybeans - Market higher with
the the other grains but I doubt this hold long as farmers will be
looking to sell it just a little higher.
Wheat - SO much for a break to
own more...wow!!! The market still has upside potential as we have
blow through our targets and now we are looking for $4.50 in Dec.
We are long cash and futures on buy backs and will add on a good break.
Rice - We remain long as today
is a good correction day with little power to the down side. Cash
prices are not going to let this one break a whole lot but another 10 to
20 cents is possible. Let's hope as we want to own it longer term.
Cattle - Lower today as the
market is still trying to determine if there is enough cattle coming to
market near term to allow a short term rally. We hope so but there
is no real clear technical indication right here of the next move's
direction. We will sell Dec if we can get it to 92 cents.
Natural Gas - Still going lower
with no low in sight. One's coming but then again, so is
Christmas....
Dow - Still going higher
but in a very orderly fashion. No change in our position, the
economy is the key and so far, earnings are high enough to keep this
going for another two months.
Wednesday September 27th - Out of town
yesterday but we're back in today!!!
Corn - We have been warning of a
possible correction the corn market and today we got it. Is is
over? Hard to say but probably not. It may have to try and
work lower tomorrow but I am still of the mind we could test below $2.50
but I want to own it longer term. Markets do not go straight up
and corn really doesn't go straight up. We will own a break so
keep in close contact with us.
Soybeans - Nothing new...we
expect lower prices here but it may take a few weeks as harvest
conditions can give the market some support near term. We will
sell a rally here.
Wheat - The market hit our
target dead on today (read last night's comment) and then back off to
support. We may see more downside near term as some profit taking
over the next days is possible. We will own a good break here as
well.
Rice - Everything is in
place...the market has broken out and we are up to 60% long. A
target price of $10.25 is in place and it will take a break back under
$9.40 to cancel this target. We will add to breaks here and watch
our margin risk as we go ahead.
Cattle - Today's action may
indicate we are through with the rally after the major sell signal.
Its too early to call but we need to move higher tomorrow. The
sell signal tomorrow is at $92.80 in the Dec which is not going to be
hit tomorrow for sure. $91.30 is the lowest sell location and the
market will have to up a bunch to get there. So...if its up to
this price tomorrow, we would sell 25%. If we drop through $89.50,
we are in trouble on this bounce.
Natural Gas - Market will look
at the intake numbers tomorrow and factor in the current weather
outlook. December Gas has a PB of 17% indicating a possible low
very soon. This is going to be interesting.
Dow - A slower day but
still no sign of a major top. I think this one will move higher
unless something big breaks. We are not wanting to sell it right
here but have some indicators warning of a possible top.
Tuesday September 26th -
Corn - Moving higher but against
resistance. A 10 cent break is possible from this level but $2.65
is still the target.
Soybeans - Nothing has changed
....
Wheat - We are closing in on our
$4.30 target here. A correction remains possible.
Rice - A close over $9.70 sets
up a move to 10:25 in November. We are watching this one very
close.
Cattle - We will sell this
rally.
Natural Gas - Still no sign of a
low but its getting close...at least for a rally.
Dow - Strong with new
highs now likely.
Monday September 25th -
Corn - Market consolidated in
last Thursday range again today and it wasn't a good day to be day
trading. The market early setup a trend-day down but failed.
That is a positive sign near term. We still see a move to $2.65
and that may come sooner than later. Cash sellers should not be
worried about a short term correction as we are in the long-term
planning phase for cash sales and it won't happen anytime soon. In
futures, we want to own a good break and so far that hasn't happened.
Risk down from here is about 7 cents and up about 10 so that puts us in
the middle of things.
Soybeans - Nothing has changed
for us here as we still beans lower. Rallies should be sold.
Wheat - We have now had one good
day of consolidation and a test of last Thursday's low. I want to
own this market lower but may not get a chance. Tomorrow will be
interesting.
Rice - We closed off of the
highs but still firmer on the day. It may be hard for rice to
rally sharply without the assistance of at least one of the the other
grains. We can see a correction back to $9.40 but it doesn't have
to happen. We remain long a little here and want to add on any
break. Remember, the issue here is margin control. We cannot
get over extended in case there is a break. The risk here is 30
cents down and the risk up is .50 to $1.00 on the upside.
Cattle - OK...we caught a break
here as the market is up in light of a bearish report last Friday.
We may be able to bounce near term and that will be a selling
opportunity for winter and early spring sales.
Natural Gas - Market is showing
signs of some exhausting here but there is still no sign of a buy
signal. I look at December and see PB at 18% and think we are very
sloe to a major low; however, the market is expanding which means we
could still drop another 50 cents before the market runs out of sellers.
We are now watching very closely for a major buy signal.
Dow - Market continues to
work higher with buyers not watching anything but price fundamentals.
This may be a "last sucker to buy it" kind of move. We would still
be long at this point because there is certainly more suckers coming
along to buy it near term.
Friday September 22nd -
Corn - Consolidation was the
main theme of the day. The market saw some profit taking but there
were buyers in line to take on the selling most of the day. Near
term the market may pull back to $2.50 but it doesn't have to. We
remain long 100% cash and will buy futures on a good pull back on the
short term charts. This could come from higher levels.
Soybeans - If you read last
night you will see we came in short a bit today and at the close we took
in the trade not wanting to be short beans through the weekend. We
are just playing the day traders game here and pulling out a little
every once in a while. In cash, we will wait for a good basis play
but we will not store cash very long. We remain overall bearish
here with a good surprise possible in the next few weeks to give us
another chance to sell.
Wheat - No change in our plans
here. Long cash and wanting to own a good break.
Rice - The roll over today
didn't find any real selling so the market consolidated. That
could set it up to move toward the $9.75 level soon; however, a break to
$9.40-$9.45 is still a possibility. If we close the gap, the
market may set sideways for awhile.
Cattle - Well, we may have shot
ourselves in the foot on this one. The report is bearish this
afternoon with 10% more cattle and 15% more on feed. That is good
news for corn but not for us wanting a rally to sell. We are out
of the futures market and long cash. We could see another 4 or 5
out of this one pretty fast.
Natural Gas - We had a short
term upside-down head and shoulders formation but that was blown apart
today in the collapse of the market as once again, we see nothing but
selling here. We understand one company of fund hedgers is caught
wrong and is liquidating and that may have had an affect on the market
today. No sign of a low and we aren't going to pick one.
Dow - Lower again today
but not with a major move down so it still looks like we could rally
back early next week.
Thursday September 21st -
Corn - WOW...We thought we might
get a gap but this is ridiculous. Short covering has turned into
Fund buying as the market moves sharply higher. Look for a test of
the $2.50 level. This rally will not hold very long but the gap
suggests $2.65 as the next stopping point for December corn. We
are long cash and want to take some of the basis levels we have off of
the table pretty soon. It is the strongest I have ever seen it
this time of year.
Soybeans - We will sell this
rally and to be honest, I sold some today going into the close but only
5%. When you have a computer system say sell it...what can I do
but sell it!!! Anyway, its been wrong before and it may be wrong
this time as well. It is a short term trade and maybe a cheaper
short then selling corn at this level.
Wheat - Market is approaching
its major downward trend line and I expect it to pause at that level.
Longer term, we still want to own breaks here.
Rice - The advance has certainly
lost some steam but we were higher again today after the down day
yesterday. We want to own a break here and there is a 30 cent risk
at this level. Longer term, the risk is all to the short in the
market so buyer must be aggressive on breaks. We will be but at
the same time, we cannot load up if our margin account would be in
trouble on a 30 cent down draft. Patience is still the best
emotional position in a market that is as uncertain as this one.
Cattle - Tomorrow's report will
tell the story. I think a 9% increase in feed lot numbers is in
the market so we may finally get a good bounce to sell once this number
is out.
Natural Gas - We are getting
close to the end of this leg down. The market's action continues
to show sellers in control but there is no room for any change in
fundamental conditions. We are looking at selling puts if we can
get any kind of intermediate buy signal. So far...nothing doing!!!
Dow - Market down today as
some traders think the market will just make new highs and then falter.
I don't know but the system is still long and so is the trend.
We'll continue to watch for signs of a short term top.
Wednesday September 20th - Well... I
wrote them Yesterday but they ended up in cyber space!!!
Corn - OK...I have to cover two
days as I see my comments didn't hit the web last night. In
general, we are against resistance and a pull back is a 60-40
probability. If there is something in the export numbers tomorrow,
we may jump over $2.50 before we hit a correction stage but in any
event, we want to buy a break here. The timing is right and odds
are high that the lows are in!!!
Soybeans - We will sell a rally
but it needs to be higher than this for us to do anything. LDP is
still in place so we are hedged naturally by the government program.
Wheat - We went long wheat and
rode it for a bit but now we are against resistance and today's action
was a hook reversal down. The market may consolidate around the
$4.06 level but we still want to own this one.
Rice - Correction day today as
the market pulls back from the recent advances off of the thrust buy
signal. We recommended a little more for some of you with the
margin room. There is still a 20 to 25% chance a 30 cent break
could happen in rice so we need to balance that with our cash position.
Nothing's worse then getting forced out of a good position. We'll
see where the support is. A re-buy point tomorrow is at $9.44 in
the November.
Cattle - IF you read our
comments on cattle you'll see we sold them for hedge purposes at $90.35.
Looks like a good choice right now but I won't let this become a loser
so we'll get stops in around $90.20 near term. Target is 85 cents
right now...that is a big break but we have two system pointing at it.
We have been warning of a 10% break and that looks to be very likely
right now.
Natural Gas - No reason to trade
here yet. We think a low may be setup in the near term but what
would make it rally??? Right now, there is nothing. A
surprise of some kind will light a major fire under here so IF there is
a surprise, it could add $1.00 really fast to the November contract.
Again, I don't see anything but then it wouldn't be a surprise would
it???
Dow - Market is still
trading but it looks like we are going to slowly grind higher. We
are looking for all time highs in the next few days but the market may
not be able to sustain much of a drive over the old highs.
Monday September 18th - Bare with us as
we make a major change to our office structure and computers..
Corn - We moved right up to
resistance and the next few days are going to be interesting. I
want to buy a break here and we may sell some $2.40 Dec puts on a break
over the next few days...IF we can get one.
Soybeans - Market may have hit
its stopping point on this rally. Look for market to offer a sell
signal at some point over the next few days.
Wheat - Market continued higher
today after reversal. We may test support but the technical action
looks good and we would buy a break. $4.06 is major resistance and
the buy point if we can close over that level.
Rice - Thrust buy signal looks
to be in place. We moved to 40% long today right after the open on
the buy signal. Market may not let this formation hold and that
would indicate a test of support near term. A close over $9.60 in
November sets up a move toward $10.00...just remember, this market has
some major quirks in it right now. The technical action is good
but there are still things out there that could be bearish. If the
market stays firm the next few days, the export sales number this
Thursday may tell us why!!!
Cattle - The bounce continued
and the sell point is $92.25. A close over $93.00 sets up a double
top but near term, we are going to have a hard time getting much over
$92.00. $90.35 is the sell signal tomorrow.
Natural Gas - Quiet as more gas
supplies are factored into the market even with a colder forecast out
there for the west coast. Problem remains above normal temps for
the central portion of the US. No sign of a low yet so we remain
on the sidelines.
Dow - 11,600 remains the
target with all eyes on all time highs for the market. We are
beginning to see that as a real possibility.
Friday September 15th -
Corn - Can we sell off to $2.35
in December??? We want to own it as it moves toward the $2.32 but
again, the risk is not down here and today is a classic example of what
can happen in this market. Today was short covering in front of
the weekend and I still think the market will put in a low pre-harvest.
Is this it??? I don't know. We will watch the market very
closely next week and see what happens. PB is back up to 45% so a
move over 50% in that indicator will tell us to get some coverage on in
futures. As of now we are short the 230 Dec Put and expect to ride
those into the sunset but we sold them for only 7 to 8 cents. We
need more coverage then that for sure. Tune in next week...same
Bat time...same Bat channel. (Now you have an idea of how old I
am!!!)
Soybeans - Big rally today but
again,. where can it go. We want to sell a bounce and today's
action sets us up to do that but we will wait for the system to tell us
to jump.
Wheat - Hook reversal up off of
the support line indicator and we even day traded it today on the
reversal. Didn't take it home as it's a weekend but sure
appreciate the good bounce to take some profit out of... Nothing
new on the longer term. We want to own it and would still hold all
cash for the time being.
Rice - While we have a buy
signal on the PB system, the daily indicators are still not saying this
market has moved into an uptrend. Today was a consolidation day
inside yesterday's range but here is the kicker. Look at a
rice chart in November and you will see a seldom experienced thrust
buy signal. Today's action is follow through from several days of
straight up action. Today was inside yesterday's range and
finally, today's close was at the high's on lower volume. If we
gap higher on Monday...it is a major buy signal and we will become
extremely aggressive on the buy side.
Cattle - The short term chart
says the bounce to sell has begun. We will wait and see how the
market trades Monday morning before saying for sure where we think the
bounce will take us. We want to sell the upcoming bounce as the
market may be telling us this is a MAJOR top forming right NOW!!!
Natural Gas - A little higher on
short covering but nothing to write home about. Lets wait it out
and see what happens early next week. If something were to
surprise us in the way of a storm or natural gas event, we are
vulnerable to a sharp move higher with short covering.
Dow - 11,600 has been our
target and it has been hit. Can we make all time highs for the
Dow??? Yes we can but I expect a break first. The lower
energy prices may put the economy in a holding pattern well into 2007
and that will allow the market to work higher.
Thursday September 14th -
Corn - Market still showing
signs of pressure. We are holding out for a move lower to $2.32 or
even lower but we will begin legging in long hedges as we approach that
level.
Soybeans - Up a bit today but
again, we see no reason to trade it much. We are looking at some
"rolling" trades here but nothing to write about right now.
Wheat - No sign of a low yet as
we are looking to own it on a short term basis. I really do not
have a target to the downside but feel that more demand will surface as
the market goes lower.
Rice - Selling emerged today at
the $9.35 level in November. That is where we will watch it
tomorrow. This is a hard call because we do not have all the
information yet on the GMO issue. I know I don't trust the
European Rice Millers Association to be the ones that test the rice.
Good grief!!! Near term, I see the market maybe doing some back
and fill but the computer now says buy breaks and that's what we will
do.
Cattle - Still no sign of a
bounce as the market closed right on its lows. 88.00 should be
support as that is where the cash market looks to come in at. Big
supplies of cash beef and lower slaughter numbers has the market
pipeline full and that is trouble for the bulls. We are not
bullish right here as we have been saying we want to sell a good
rally...where is it???
Natural Gas - Market is still
under pressure as today's infusion of gas stocks was right at the upped
end of the trade guess. Looks like we can still go lower so us
guys needing to buy it are riding a winner right here. I think the
lows will come when people least expect it and right now, no one is
expecting it.
Dow - 11,600 remains our
next test.
Wednesday September 13th -
Corn - Early strength fell apart
as the day wore on and the big harvest dead ahead has some bulls running
for cover. Our downside objective remains $2.32 in the December
and we will own futures for those needing long hedges at that level.
Soybeans - 5 cent range and
little to talk about. Market held up on the day but again, where
is it going?? We are looking for some day trading opportunities
but there is just no reason to be trading here at all.
Wheat - We exited the 20% long
position with a small loss today right after the market failed to make
new highs after 10:30. That let us out re-cooping some of the loss
from yesterday and we are now in a position to own it lower. So
all long hedges are gone and we will own it when the system says to do
so. Cash based farmers still should be holding 100% cash in the
bins for the time being.
Rice - As I said at lunch, I
didn't add the milled rice to the ending stocks number and that is why I
thought the number was too high. OK...I'm not perfect and my
apologies to the guys throwing the darts!!! Market firmed
again today and PB is now over 50% indicating buy signals approaching.
I do have an over bought indicator signaling not to buy it here but on a
break but again, this is not a normal market. Traders who want a
low risk trade need to hang on here a while. Those needing the
coverage in a bad way, we want to go to 40% long when we can.
Tomorrow will be interesting and will take a hard look at it in the
morning. I think its time for everyone to at least be 20% by the end of
the day tomorrow.
Cattle - Well...I said we should
rally toward 93.00 last night...wrong again!!! Market sold off
hard today and while I still see a bounce, the bounce will not get us
back to 93 cents in December. We'll wait for the turn and then
give you a sell point. I hate being right and not making money.
Natural Gas - Market will close
under $5.50 and there is no sign of a low. No reason to own it at
all right now. PB is at 34%...remember 50% is balanced and under
50 is bearish...over 50% is bullish. Pretty simple. Market
is going in our direction so we'll wait it out.
Dow - 11,600 remains our
next test.
Tuesday September 12th -
Corn - Down hard today as the
USDA report increases yield but the carry-over number was right on the
numbers. Ideas that the crop will still get bigger weighed on the
market. Downside near term is $2.27 at the most and $2,32 will be
our target in December to start adding.
Soybeans - Report was not
bearish but the other grains didn't let it rally. Near term $5.30
for November.
Wheat - Not a good day and a
surprise to me. We are long 20% in futures and NO I didn't sell.
Tomorrow may be another story. First, we didn't get sell signals
with the market down 10 cents. Second, the report is bullish in
the picture of world events so for me, I am not as worried about this
break as some may be. Tomorrow will be interesting as we may
actually need to drop back to no futures in the Spec account. Cash
producers, sit tight.
Rice - OK...I thought the report
was bearish. Market opened lower but quickly reversed and finished
higher. Technically, the market should be sold 20 higher and
bought 20 lower. For now, we'll give it room and hold our current
position at 20% long. If you are not there, we would use breaks to
buy it.
Cattle - OK...the rally has
started which should run toward $93.00 in December. We will be
looking to sell this bounce.
Natural Gas - Market a little
lower. Nothing here to get excited about so we will hold where we
are with no positions looking for a low.
Dow - Big rally with crude
selling off and talk of 59.00 oil dead ahead. Market is setup for
a test of 11,600.
Monday September 11th - WE REMEMBER!!!!
Corn - This market started lower
but ran out of selling and gave great day trading buy signals. The
report tomorrow will be key for the next few weeks for direction.
We will wait for the numbers before putting on a position. By the
way, most are expecting a bearish report.
Soybeans - Market lower in front
of report as everyone keeps asking the same question, where can it go???
We are out and expect lower prices at some point.
Wheat - Nice buying break today
in front of a report that should highlight a tight condition for wheat.
Farmers are 100% long in cash and specs are 20% long futures.
Rice - Interesting day...at one
point there was an 11 cent spread between the bid and the ask in
November...that is huge!!! We bought another 10% in the spec
account but hedgers are holding at 0 to 20% depending on risk tolerance.
Lets look at the number tomorrow and go from there.
Cattle - This market is
notorious for Kondratieff the tops
so we will wait for a bounce to sell here. That should happen soon
or else I'm dead wrong and there is a spike top in the market.
Natural Gas - We said Friday we
would test $5.50 and today we did that and then failed to close under
that level. Even so, the market closed down on the day and there
is no sign of a buy signal at this point. $5.15 is the next target
on a close under $5.50.
Dow - This market is right
down boring and it looks it could stay that way for awhile.
Sunday September 10th -
Corn - Market holding near highs
but very quiet. We want to by a break and think the USDA report
this week may give us the chance.
Soybeans - S&D report this week
will be interesting but we don't see the market going anywhere for a
while.
Wheat - We are back long in the
spec account and 100% long in the cash account.
Rice - Market is still waiting
for more news. The USDA report this week will be very interesting.
What do they do with this GMO issue and the carryover number. We
want to buy a test of the lows this week on about 20%. Cash
producers should be storing 100%.
Cattle - We have a sell signal
in cattle and want to sell any rally here. The market should
Kondratieff the top so that's where
we would be selling.
Natural Gas - Market will test
$5.50...we are out right here looking for a place to own for a short
covering bounce. Cash buyers are 100% out of any new purchases
they need.
Dow - Dow rallied back to
11,400. Lets see what it has in it near term. We see a down
draft pretty soon.
Thursday September 7th -
Corn - Corn started lower but
then turned much stronger giving us a nice rally day. Most of the
comments on the markets action was a lack of selling under $2.40 in
December. For now, we remain short the $2.30 Dec calls and have no
other recommendations at this point.
Soybeans - Higher with the corn.
This could be interesting, but my feeling is we are going nowhere in the
beans except lower.
Wheat - If you read our midday
comments you'll see we suggested a long position if wheat went back up
on the day. That happened and we bought 20% for our spec account.
Producers are storing cash and that remains the best thing.
Rice - Nothing new here for the
market but we are back to 20% long because we don't what to do and it
looks like this GMO thing may not be as bad as first thought.
Cattle - If we get follow
through down tomorrow, we may have our sell signal for cattle.
Natural Gas - We are out
thinking a test of $5.50 is likely but I don't mind buying a little if
we get a technical buy indicator. For now we remain out of the
market on long hedges...that puts us short.
Dow - Market followed
through down today, we could test 11,200 here pretty soon.
Wednesday September 6th -
Corn - The break we had hoped
for is happening. This could last through the USDA report next
week as all of a sudden, all the news is bearish...yeah...RIGHT!!!
If you read our comments below you will see we didn't buy this one yet
believing a break would give us a better chance to own it. This
break could take us toward the $2.35 level as the basis is weakening as
well. We will own it by maybe selling more Puts first but at the
same time, we want to see how the USDA figures the S&D report on the
12th before we do anything major. For now, plan on a sideways
affair for about 6 to 8 weeks between $2.32 and $2.49.
Soybeans - Collapsed at the end
of the day with a new low for this move and just a few cents over the
contract low. $5.20 is in sight here for the bean market.
Wheat - Correction under way at
last. It will be interesting to see how far this one can correct
with the bullish fundamentals right now.
Rice - OK...Decision time!!!
We want to own 20% of our base at a minimum. We bought 20% the
other day in the spec account and are now recommending it for those
needing to own futures. This is a tough call and in some ways I
hope I'm wring. Being long only 20% of what we need to own, puts
us 80% short. The approval of the LLR601 is still 40 days away but
all signs point to approval. The selling has stopped at this point
but could still come back if the USDA thinks rice exports to the EU will
not continue, we doubt that is true but it depends on the amount of the
GE protein in the rice we send into the EU and we still don't know the
threshold of the current contamination and what the EU will accept.
We want to start getting back in because, first, we sold it
substantially higher and second, it looks like the worst of the news is
past. So, lets wade in to our ankles and hope the sharks can't
swim in 5 inches of water!!!
Cattle - Still waiting...the
next two days, we will watch for a possible reversal pattern.
Natural Gas - We sold out of Gas
today when our 30 minute system screamed to liquidate and buy back on
the close IF the market closed up on the day...it didn't so we didn't
re-enter. This sets up a reversal pattern going into the report
tomorrow. So now we are slick and we'll wait for a new reason to
own...or sell.
Dow - As we said last
night and many times before...where is it going??? Market lower
today, we'll see if it can follow through to the downside tomorrow and
setup a nice correction.
Tuesday September 5th -
Corn - We had no opening
comments this morning because of the three day weekend and the lack of a
setup in any of the markets. At mid-day we warned of a correction
in the next few days and that started today. More profit taking is
possible as a result of the hook reversal down today in December corn
with a spike. We will see what the market does in the next few
days but my guess is we enter a weekly consolidation phase and the
market participants start talking of larger supplies of corn. Hold
the short puts and on a good break we will start owning some deferred
months.
Soybeans - Nothing new...market
pretty dead right now. We could work lower but there is not a huge
risk to the downside.
Wheat - Closed well off its
highs but still higher on the day. We will buy a break and think
one is about here.
Rice - Up a bit but no news.
There is still good risk in both directions. We are 20% long right
here and that's enough. Its harvest time as well and with no news
on the GMO issue, why be any longer right now.
Cattle - Still going. We
will wait for a sell signal.
Natural Gas - We are long 30% in
the gas and will hold for now. This is a spec position only as we
are holding hedgers out. The cash basis is huge so anything we do
in the market will be cash for hedgers. Cash sellers might want to
sell a rally here but not just yet.
Dow - Up a little...where
is it going??? No where is the best answer for now.
Friday September 1st -
Corn - Market corrected with
good profit taking today. Nothing new on the fundamental picture
but for now I think we can still get corn bought a little lower.
This is a three day weekend and the Labor day weekend does not have near
the pop after it as does July 4th; however, this year anything is
possible. We chose to go through the weekend out of the market
except being short the $2.30 Dec Puts.
Soybeans - Beans taking on their
normal direction which of late is down. We are looking for Nov to
test the $5.50 level. It is going to take something big to shake
this one awake. We are out seeing no reason to trade it.
Wheat - Correction day but there
wasn't much of one. We will still buy a good break and there will
be a couple dead ahead.
Rice - A good corrective rally
today. The market still has some stuff to get through but this
took some pressure off of the longs. We decided to put on a very
small long (15%) just to have something in place in case bigger news
comes out. The fact that some foundation seed doesn't have the GMO
problem is encouraging but the total scope of the problem is still not
known. There is no reason to write much more for now as three days
can be a very long time in this situation.
Cattle - We hit our 94 level we
mentioned last night and then sold off. It still closed higher on
the day so no sell signal. We will start to sell it next week as
we approach 95 in a scale up sale program.
Natural Gas - We enter a three
day weekend that will probably find gas sharply higher or sharply lower
come next Tuesday. The cold fronts are getting further south than
they normally do this time of year which takes the starch out of a major
hurricane in the gulf the rest of the year. We'll see. We are out
except for the spec account which bought a couple of contracts today on
the Atlantic satellite picture.
Dow - Market looks to be
headed for 11,600. Nothing new here either as we still see
earnings down in the third quarter.
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