Tuesday January 30th - 

Corn -  With the energy complex headed higher on news of a crude oil production cut by Saudi Arabia, the grain markets pushed higher lead by corn.  There is really no new news but again, corn is looking at long term fundamentals which has end users looking at sharply higher costs for corn then they have ever seen.  Several food companies are now warning consumers that the price of food is about to go higher but looking at fundamentals shows the market is not going to lose demand at this price level and it may not buy enough supply.  We are short the $3.80 March put and long futures looking to sell the $4.30 call at 10 cents or better.  A push over $4.10 in the March sets up the move to $4.16.

Wheat  - We need a change in demand or supply and I still think the change will be in the supply side or at least a scare for that.  Right now, its pretty dead and I like selling some Puts but not just yet.

Beans - Higher with talk of more bean business and a dumping of corn/beans spreads.  Watch November and look for a possible sale of call's on part of the crop coming up. 

Rice - Lower today on little news.  A lot of fear about the long positions in this market.  A good shot down would purge the system alright and it would also offer a great chance to get more longs on in form of sold Puts.  Nothing new from today's trade.

Natural Gas -  OK...things have changed.  Today's push in the market busted the Key Reversal down from yesterday and it sets up for a move to $8.15 in the April contract.  This is a total change of the technical picture; however, we need confirmation of this and that could come tomorrow.  With crude up almost $3.00, I wonder if we haven't put the Saudi announcement in the market and if we have, we could push right back down again.  Lets revisit this after the close tomorrow. 

Cattle -  Down a little in the summer months with feeders off but not by much.  I just can't get very bearish here with $4.00 corn and 97 cent feeders. 

Monday January 29th - 

Corn -  Once again the market traded down into the gap but found no real selling.  Right now there is no real bullish news to take us higher and the market is a bit long so any down days will find additional selling until the shorts in the market start to cover.  Cash basis was down a little as well coming in today so there is just no reason for the market to run up.  Running down will only invite new buying so near term...there isn't much of a direction to look at.

Wheat  - Here the demand remains weak as buyers wait for lower prices to buy in needs.  Cold weather could have some affect on the winter wheat this week in certain parts but over all the crop is still doing well right now.  It also has a long way to go.

Beans - Quiet market here today with no real news. 

Rice - Nothing new here either.  Read Friday's comments as they are still relevant.

Natural Gas -  A massive key reversal down today in April Gas sets up a follow through test tomorrow for this contract.  A push lower could setup a move toward the main support zone at $6.75 with the next level at $6.56.  We may start selling some puts in this market and also doing come cash buying.

Cattle -February cattle closed higher after trading off on last Friday's COF report.  The rest of the market was quiet except in Feeder cattle where April closed a nice gain of 110 points.  Nothing new from our report last week. 

Friday January 26th - 

Corn -  We finished with a 6 cent range on the day and down 1 cent, closer to the highs then the lows.  It was a nothing day.  A move over $4.10 will setup a challenge of the highs at $4.16 1/2.  We sold the $3.80 March puts as we suggested on Wednesday for 5 1/2 and they closed at 3 1/2 today.   We have also sold some $4.20 calls to cover some long futures on corn we will be selling if we can approach the $4.35 level in March.  Options expire on the 23rd of February so these are short term trades.  In general, nothing new to talk about as we consolidate over the gap.

Wheat  - We are sideways here until corn determines its next direction.  It was a very low volume day as traders were glad to see a quiet trade and get some time off from the constant "what's happening" mode of looking at a screen.  Nothing has changed on any of the technical indicators or fundamentals so for now it looks sideways.

Beans - South American weather is good for their crop and that is bad for our prices. A major push up in corn prices will bring some carryover into the beans but a good rally toward $8.00 in the Nov is a sale unless it is US weather related but that isn't going to happen until late spring or summer.  So for us, we will sell any rally here.  

Rice - This week was disappointing in that we fell into the accordion action which has been the feature in rice for the last 4 years.  We fell right into the January price range this week and then the selling just died.  There is no new news to trade on so again, it looks like old crop has little to rally on and new crop has little to sell off for.  The bear spread has really worked this week and it could get worse for the May contract if we don't get a bounce for the old crop.  We are looking at the US plantings report the end of March as the next major event; however, a sharp move higher by the grains will catch this markets attention as well.  I don't see old crop down that much so it's sideways again.

Natural Gas -  The market failed to follow through to the downside today and that could be a change in traders ideas.  After the big move down yesterday, I expect and hoped for more down today.  The market opened higher and then just sat there the rest of the day.  Monday will be interesting but we want to buy this break and if we aren't getting one more then what we saw today, we will be entering the market very fast.  Monday we will start looking at selling Puts to enter some long positions. 

Cattle -A quiet day in front of this afternoon's cattle-on-feed (COF) report.  April was up 60 points but the rest of market only up a few points.  The report was a little bearish but the placement numbers tells a trend and that is for a lot less cattle weights in the fats for this summer and beyond.  In general, I find the report neutral for nearby futures and friendly enough for the deferred contracts to hold them where they are.  A break in the deferred contracts should be a buy. 

Dow - Market moved lower but finished off lows and down just 15 points.  We would like to see a continuation to the down side as the market looks like it needs to break back.  A 10% correction is in order but I'm not sure we can pull that off. 

Thursday January 25th - 

Corn -  Market up today.  Read our comments from last night as we pointed out the support and resistance levels.  There is nothing new to talk about here. 

Wheat  - This market looks like it is finally running out of sellers at lower levels.  This could indicate the lows are in or at least very close to being in. 

Beans - Down a bit.  Nothing n here either...ho hum!!!

Rice - Market found commercial buying at the lows today and finished up a couple of cents.  Nothing new from us here as we think the market is still sideways.

Natural Gas -  BAM!!!  We had major selling here today and that may continue for the next couple of days as the inventory numbers today did nothing to alleviate the huge supply of gas.  We will buy this break as we think the market is going to find it hard to push much below the $6.50 level on this dip.

Cattle -Up a bit as the market consolidates.  Feb remains low and summer months strong.

Dow - Down 119 today.  Maybe we see a little more selling here tomorrow.

Wednesday January 24th - 

Corn -  The bears are making a total assault on the gap with some of the naysayers pointing out that demand is about to fall off.  Well it had better or we won't have anything left.  Tell me something I don't know.  What I do know is that there is no new news in the market, it is consolidating ABOVE the gap and has tested it several times.  A move over $4.10 in March sets up a run for the contract high and close over that sets up a move to $4.35.  IF we close the gap, there is serious changes in the fundamentals we don't know about.  I am thinking the February report may lower the carry over number even further as the USDA holds back on some of their own forecasts saying, we can't let this out except in pieces.  If that is the cast, granted BIG IF, then we may have a record low carry over with a record high usage.  Patience is needed here.  As we said in our morning update, one play would be to sell the $3.80 put in March for 7 to 8 cents.  It didn't get there today but might in the next day or so.  Heck...I even like selling it at 5 cents.  Worse case is I own March corn futures at $3.75.  Odds are not too high I'll ever get a chance to own it at that level but if I do, I'll take it...man will I take it.  We need to buy 10 million acres and guys, a bear market in January is not going to help that cause. 

One more thing...the market opened into the range it spend most of the day and we closed 2 cents off the high and 4 cents off the low.  No trend day of any type formed today which means the market was range bound for most of the day.  This is not a sign of a top but of acceptance.

Wheat  - Volatility is increasing which normally happens at highs or lows...could we be close to a low???  Well we could be but there has to be a change in the overall big picture which for now is leaning to the bearish camp.  We need to sell wheat but are thinking that the corn move is not over and wheat is going to see some help from corn WHEN and IF corn takes off.   Get ready to sell but you have some time.  Also, start to watch out for a weather scare here as everyone is just assuming the crop is made.  You guys in Kansas agree with that???  I didn't think so.  

Beans - Beans are looking they want to test support at $7.00.  In general, they will still be pulled around by corn and with corn down 8 cents, beans are going to be down 12.  Nothing new here.

Rice - March rice headed toward support near $10.00 today with a low of $10.15.  November held like a rock at $10.90 so the spread is now out to 75 cents between the nearby and new crop.  $1.20 is around carry so it can go a little more but the market will never get to full carry on these two months.  If the buying is there in the new crop as it appears, the old crop may test the $9.90 level but that's about it.  We will own more on this break but are now looking out to July and the July/ Nov spread. 

Natural Gas -  Today may be signaling the end of the current price spike in the NG but I'm not ready to say it yet.  Tomorrow gas numbers will be important and if we don't have a big draw down, we could see a lot of selling come in here.   

Cattle -With corn down, cattle turned higher but nit by much.  This market has gotten a bit slower as the grain war continues.  We are out looking at some sideways action for now.  The trend is down in the nearby and higher in the summer months.  

Dow - Market looking like it wants to hit the 13,000 level.  No big correction can be seen here as any break doesn't carry through.  We are out looking for a nice correction, one that lasts more then a few days to be on the aggressive buy side. 

Tuesday January 23rd - 

Corn -  A little higher today on no news.  The market remains above the gap and as long as it does, the market is setup to work higher.  I know that seems to be logical but it isn't as obvious as it sounds.  Gaps have specific performance styles and one of them is that markets don't like to hang around gaps.  They either close them or move away from them.  That is why we say, the longer it stays here the more likely it is going move away from this price range.  Thursday's export sales numbers will be very important but technically, no changes from what we have been saying.  

Wheat  - For you who were on our Webinar last week, we showed you the downward channel.  Today's action did not violate the downward sloping trend line but it sure got our attention.  Can it follow through tomorrow???  We think it can especially if thee is a change in the overall picture that has not been in the market the past 10 weeks.  A higher day tomorrow could give us buy indications.  

Beans - We are watching November beans hoping for a move over $8.00 with some authority.  That could start to propel new crop rice higher as well.

Rice - No follow through to the downside today as close up a little bit.  If the selling was fund led as believed and they didn't come back in for more today, we could see it go right back toward the $10.40 level in March.  Open interest dropped 400 contracts yesterday but we are still have over 10,900 contracts open in the March futures.  Hard to believe but again, this is not your fathers market.  Heck, its not my market either.  The overall picture has not changed.  Near term it could drag and be sideways but longer term, it is a sleeper.

One more thing...November up 14 cents is probably a aberration.  We'll see if the July/Nov spread can hold where it closed tonight.   

Natural Gas -  Another up day with cold weather forecast to hold on.  Thursday's gas numbers may bring us back some reality but I still have no reason to sell this one just yet.  The big picture says we should turn back down at some point near term but patience is required. 

Cattle -Cattle is testing longer term support in the nearby as good weather has the Feb contract on the slide.  Higher feed costs are going to keep placements under control so the June contract is still finding support and that is where we are looking ourselves.  No positions should be in place here as we see a higher cost of corn affecting placements and actually helping the summer cattle futures prices over the next few months.

Dow - Market rebounded today but kind of ran out of gas.  Nothing new from us. 

Monday January 22nd - 

Corn -  Back and forth we go.  Looks like a tug of war most of the time.  In general, the big picture has not changed any and the technical picture is looking stronger.  I know I sound like a raging bull and its hard to be that way over $4.00 but this market is accepting the value and frankly, I don't see a lot of people not using corn just because its over four bucks.   End users who must have the corn are looking to own it on breaks and while we could see another push down, we may see new highs for this move just to see what kind of selling is overhead.  What a market.  If you can't be long...just don't be short!!!

Wheat  - Nothing new...in the trading range and the down trend is holding so no reason to do anything different here. 

Beans - If acres are only off seven million as some suggest, $8.00 Nov beans is going to be some major resistance.  We will start to recommending some new crop sales once we see where the resistance level is.  

Rice - The trend was violated today as rice fell apart with a big day down.  This market collapsed exactly into the closing range of January which is what we call "accordion action" and is what we talked about happening.  Nothing could be worse then rolling positions only to have the market accordion into the prior delivery month's trading range.  That is what happened today and now we look to the January chart for support in March.  It shows major support at $9.80 to $10.00 so there is still some risk here of a further decline.  We like buying the market lower but not the way it got there today.  We opened under heavy pressure down hard and it was funds selling.  The best thing for now is to wait and see where the market finds support which more then likely will be the selling drying up more then buyers flooding in to own it.  Longer term...nothing changes.  Rice is the sleeper with acres the big question.

Natural Gas -  Strong move higher as we expect some heavy gas usage with this cold spell.  Still, it is a sell at some point but I don't have one yet.  This is exactly what I feared and didn't get it bought.  Oh well, I still think I will get my chance.

Cattle -Cattle move lower in the nearby months as we still have some heavy weights left to work through.  The June contract is showing the low placement numbers in the last COF report so it is holding and that is where we like owning the market ourselves. 

Dow - A little bounce at the end kept the Dow from triple digit losses today.  A good 1% decline would be refreshing We are out looking to own it lower. 

Sunday Night January 21st - 

Corn -  I always like updating this page Sunday night so I can see how the weekend may affect the markets.  As I type this at 8:30 on Sunday evening, corn is down which signals another attempt to close the gap in the corn.  This may be the last serious attempt to close the gap and there is a chance it is successful.  A private forecast of 85 million acres for the 2007 plantings sets up the market to look down the road for the December contract to see an increase in carryover but there is a long way to go and there is plenty of weather to worry about as well.  Nothing has changed in our look at the market.  There is a February report coming and the USDA may drop the carryover even more if there is no change in speed of exports.  Again, there is no room for any mistakes and a sell off is still an opportunity to buy it for users over the next four months as upward pressure should remain in the old crop  

Wheat  - Still in the trading channel looking for a reason to rally.  No reason to change our ideas here.

Beans - Read our comments from Wednesday and Thursday.  They still hold.

Rice - The trend is up but there is not a lot of excitement here.  We will watch support and the trend but we see rice as a sleeper long term not near term.

Natural Gas -  Higher as we finally have some really cold weather.  This is a selling opportunity but the lows may be in until the spring or summer.

Cattle - Cattle were lower and yes I still like them but I am not trading them. 

Dow - Still quiet.  No recommendations. 

Thursday January 18th - 

Corn -  A little higher today in volatile back and forth trading. n Looks like we are still changing from weak to strong hands and the chart remains bullish.  We have a couple more days in which the market can test the gap from Friday but if we take out the $4.21 level in March, $4.55 is our next target.  The good news for the bulls here is the selling pressure from the bears.  They want to sell it at $4.20 but they then stop selling at $4.05.  The buyers are waiting for a BIG break to buy it so this is a classic bullish setup and we remain long looking for higher prices.  Yes, we could be wrong.  In fact we may be wrong; however, the odds favor new highs with gap NOT being closed.  Tomorrow the market maybe lower as we have been up for 6 days in a row but we have been lower on the day 4 of those days so again, that shows that the buying is strong here and we appear to be accepting the value of corn over $4.00.

Wheat  - The markets got a little more in line with the corn move of late yesterday but nothing new to talk about.  Look for wheat to move lower if corn is not strong as we remain firmly in a down trend. 

Beans - Same as wheat but beans are really needing to be watched closely as we have been pointing out.  As corn approaches a major top, beans may show us first.

Rice - A little lower but still above support.  Nothing too exciting here and it may stay that way.

Natural Gas -  There is another cold blast coming but again, I see the market sideways from here for now.  A move toward $6.00 may let us sell some Puts.

Cattle - Feeder cattle firm today but Live Cattle were a bit lower.  I like cattle near term.

Dow - Down 9 so again...nothing to talk about.

Wednesday January 17th - 

Corn - Market again finished higher but way off of highs as selling at the end of the day trimmed the gains.  We finished right where we started.  Here is the scoop.  We have four more days to see if the market can trade back below the high of the day made last Thursday.  So far we haven't traded below the limit up move on Friday.  Farmers are selling here as they haven't seen this high of price but in our overall assessment, this time of year is not when markets make highs.  We still have 6 weeks before the plantings report so as we see it, there is still more up to come IF we stay above the prices of last Thursday.  Look for more chop here as we change from weak to strong hands and then after that, it's going to get interesting.  Technical traders are looking at the gap and saying...NO WAY but a close over today's high may get them thinking the other way. 

Wheat  - Here we saw a nice bounce as wheat approaches what could be major support.  Corn drug it higher but there was no selling at the end which makes me think the late selling in corn was not considered quality selling by wheat traders.  We'll see tomorrow.  For us, the trend remains down and we need the market to show it has turned before we would buy anything.   

Beans - Same as wheat.  No sell off with Corn so the market didn't like the sellers in the corn.  We'll see if corn holds today's lows in the over night session.  Here, just as we pointed out in our WEBINAR today, we see the market drug by corn so when it starts to separate from the major move in its big sister, we will want to start laying into some sales.  For now we are OK to let it trade around.    

Rice - After being higher rice turned back down and finished unchanged to a couple of cents lower.  The fundamentals that we see indicate no movement...it is the fundamentals we don't see that will need to take center stage.  Look for the market to stay sideways and test support. 

Natural Gas -  Today's action is...well, just plain bearish.  We knew the storm was going to end and that it wasn't going to burn that much gas.  Today the bears took back over to see if they can drive it into new lows.  I think they can but again, we are looking to buy here based on longer term concerns.  The time is not right just yet but if we see the selling dry up as we approach the lows, we could finally say we have probably started to build a sideways platform for the time being.

Cattle - Mixed today.  Nothing new from our part. 

Dow - Down 5 points today with nothing to talk about...

Tuesday January 16th - Vacation Over and it's back to work

Corn - Market finished well off highs but the gap in this market since Friday morning is colossal.  We will go over it in the morning in detail as the big picture is bullish...have we been saying that a long time or what???  If you are not on the Webinar in the morning that's OK but we will be telling our plan for selling this market near on this bounce and NO its not over with yet.

Wheat  - The affect of corn on wheat is huge but the affect of old thinking is larger.  Right now we are seeing the change of wheat from weak hands to strong hands and long term, that is still bullish.  A long way to go here. 

Beans - Beans are widening the range as we say it and there is no sign that this move is over.  The re-buy signal is currently 15 cents lower and we may not get there anytime soon.  We would not be selling here.   

Rice - March rice lost 10 cents today but its right back to the buy zone.  I don't see how it can break much as more and more thoughts are the acres will be lower in 2007 and the demand higher.  We are holding cash and in Texas looking for a $4.50 premium before the end of April.

Natural Gas - It is cold outside but there is little affect on Gas prices.  Even so, Our computer is saying a correction is underway and could run on higher toward the $7.00 mark. 

Cattle - Fats higher and feeders lower but way off of lows.  I still think we are in a strange time when both markets work higher.  Cattle following corn just because that is what it will take to keep placing them.

Dow - Up 26 points but nothing new in our thoughts.  The market is slowing here and a correction still remains likely from this level by several hundred points. 

Monday January 15th - FROM ORLANDO FLORIDA - Markets closed today...but not tomorrow.

General Comment - Huge up day in everything last Friday as the corn report shows how tight things can get and then we ask..."What if there is any weather problem this summer??"  We should make new highs on his news as his was a big surprise.  We will show you how big in the WEBINAR presentation on Wednesday. 

Rice showed how little it follows the other grains; however, that will not last for long as that sucking sound you hear is acres leaving rice for beans and corn.  We remain long 50% there and do have buy signals so we will own more on breaks.  The final story is not written here yet for sure.  

Thursday January 11th - FROM ORLANDO FLORIDA

General Comment - Corn up16, Rice up 5to 8, Beans up 10 and Wheat up 8.

Tomorrow morning we get h new USDA numbers and we will have comments here tomorrow morning as soon as we can.  The last to days shows that corn is in a major bullish setup and with exports as big as they were today, the is no sign of cutting off the demand at this price.  We will follow the report tomorrow and have comments on all the market sin the morning.

Wednesday January 10th - 

Corn - Corn worked higher after fund selling fell off early and the end result was a massive Key reversal up.  The USDA report is Friday morning and it will have a lot to say about the near term direction but from a technical point, today was very bullish.  The low today was down in the gap made November 2nd and then the market reversed up.  This could mean that sellers are not going to be aggressive enough to push the market through that gap.  We have been thinking the market would possible close the gap but is sure doesn't have to.  Over the next several days, we may rally and try to see where the selling comes back in.  If we close lower tomorrow, then the gap may get closed after the report on Friday.  We turned back to the buy side today as soon as the Key reversal was underway (at yesterday's high) but I won't marry the position.  Tomorrow will be interesting.

Wheat  - The reversal in corn started to happen in wheat but then the buying just plain stopped.  The timing is just not here with the current weather for a bounce; however, today's high is a good place to cover any shorts. 

Beans - Nothing new here and we will wait for the market to look at the report on Friday before doing anything here.

Rice - This is a tough one and right now, anything could happen.  Longer term we are bullish as everyone knows but at the same time, if the market is getting ready to move another 30 cents higher, we don't want to miss it.  Today's action is negative and we bought some today so now we are on the hot seat.  In general, we have not changed any of our ideas on being 50% long.  We have gotten way down in our level thinking the highs would hold, they didn't.  Now that level becomes support so a move back under $10.50 would setup this move the past two weeks as a bull trap.  This is where it gets hard to trade rice as it can give you a head fake and then move back under commercial selling.  We are still several months from taking the selling ammunition away from those guys so the next two days, we will watch this one very closely.  

Natural Gas - We continue to work higher looking for resistance as selling is not heavy enough to push back toward support.  We think that will happen but from what level???  No positions now as we want to watch a sell off first.

Cattle - Sharply higher today so things remain positive. 

Dow - Up 20 points and we have no changes in our ideas.  I am looking at the selling pressure and it seems to be drying up which would let the general upward flow start to assert itself again.  It's too early to say that is what is happening so we will just keep day trading it. 

Tuesday January 9th - 

Corn - The CFTC announced Monday a supplement to the Commitment of Traders which showed the Index Funds a huge short in the market and that has traders very nervous that if the funds re-balance their accounts, they could drive corn sharply lower.  Well Dah!!!  The problem is that the trade looked at the funds being long and not the commercials being long and I mean LONG!!!   My first thought was this break is not going much further but it could drop another 10 cents to get some gaps closed.  $3.61 down to $3.47 is my target window for July corn and I will by July down 10 cents tomorrow and am willing to bet...I never get the chance!!!  Long term nothing has changed.  We are in a correction mode and have been saying that here for weeks and if you don't believe me just read December 8th comments.  This cannot be a surprise to anyone reading our comments the past two months.  So...get ready to own and do not panic!!!

Wheat  - This market too is generating heavy losses for the bulls and commercials have to be thinking longer term on the "What if's" of the market.  We will own it lower and we continue to keep our powder dry.

Beans - Good selling here today and this market remains on the defensive.  No change in our ideas as we have bought into the bullish idea ONLY if the corn can make new highs and right now...that is out of the question. 

Rice - We are hearing news that Iraq is going to buy US rice in January and we also see that Indonesia is lining up for more Asian rice to cover their shortage...which is huge.  Looks like the break out will work and we will buy breaks now; however, be prepared for a buy the rumor sell the fact.  Tomorrow's sell zone is at $10.80 in March and who knows, it could be hit.  If the market is a little weak in the morning, we may want to own it.

Natural Gas - We turned higher today on a lack of selling and means a correction is now firmly underway to look for resistance.  In fact...the lows may be in for a while although they could be tested and accordion action can happen. 

Cattle - Market gave up yesterday's gain and now we sit near the support zone on this move up but still $3.00 higher then the balanced point of the market.  A bounce in corn could trigger another little correction here to find the level of support in the February contract. 

Dow - The PB in this market is at 53% which is balanced.  The strength index of the PB number is at 15% which means there is no trend.  Frankly, the correction the last few days may be allowing for a basing sideways trading range but I am not sure I am buying that...literally!!!   I am in all cash right here waiting for that Strength Index to start higher which could also happen in a bear market indicating a major correction 1,000 points or more...is about to happen.  Things are not as good as some people are saying. 

Monday January 8th - 

Corn - A lower day from the start with some buying late to lift us from the lows.  That failed in the last 45 minutes and we finished lower.  I can still see corn lower to close the gap but time is going to start working against the bears soon as the over riding fundamentals remain bullish.  We will buy the low but still think that is 10 to 15 cents lower...at least that is what I think today!!!

Wheat  - We finished off the lows but still 6 cents lower in the March.  PB is at 35% and looking negative but near term we could see a little bounce here to see where the big selling is.  When I say a little bounce, I mean a little bounce for now.  With no weather changes, we could work lower for a couple more weeks pretty easily. 

Beans - The reversal up on Friday had no follow through just as expected and the market worked lower with technical selling in light of the corn and wheat pits working lower.  No changes in our advice.  We want no positions on here and for now, we look for higher prices in the spring but they will be major selling opportunities. 

Rice - All that heavy selling in March on Friday never showed back up and technical buying took the market into new contract highs.  The market is breaking out a bit early but look at corn last year and you have to say..."it can happen."   PB is now over 70% with room to go higher and the buy zone is no $10.45 to $10.30.  We have been saying for months...this market needs to go higher and its overall fundamentals are bullish.  This move could give us the last real push to buy back some acres we think we have lost.  We need another 50cents to get to good profitable selling levels. 

Natural Gas - Read our comments from last Friday.  We said a bounce was probable here and we had it today but closed near the lows.  It is not time for gas to take off with no news out there to change the major fundamentals.  That news is coming but not just yet; however, I will warn us all one more time (but not the last time) that the fundamentals are well known here and the market can run higher very quickly.  This will be especially true if there is a surprise weather forecast.

Cattle - Up 82 points today looking at cheaper feed.  Frankly, the fundamentals are good but we need one more indication that the lower feed report of last month has really caught hold. 

Dow - Read Friday and you will see at the time we wrote those comments, the market was down over 100 points.  It rallied into the close and that rally held for most of the day today only to give up ground in the last hour.  We may chop around here waiting for more news n the current economic picture but I think we are still 6 to 9 weeks away from the current fundamentals actually being known.  We are a little cautious right here an look to sell a good rally.

Friday January 5th - 

Corn - Please...PLEASE...reread our comments from last night.  Nothing new.  We even called the bounce today!!! 

Wheat  - Reversal here with short covering.  That is a good sign we are approaching support.  Look for it to be tested again soon.  Read last nights comments.

Beans - A reversal up here but we don't have sell signals so it really doesn't mean anything.  Near term, beans will be drug around by weather and the grains. 

Rice - There was some heavy selling over the market.  With-in 10 cents there was over 100 contracts for sale in the electronic trade.  That is heavy for that side of the market.  We settled unchanged to up a couple of cents so next week we will look again at the market conditions.  I think acres are going to be a huge factor here and in my mind, the market is not looking at much of a reduction.  If traders are wrong, prices are going to head higher.   

Natural Gas - A little higher as the selling just drops off once we hit that $6.00 level in February.  This is major support and with PB running at 28% there is some room for a correction higher near term.  Ask yourself the question of where is the surprise going to come from??  If there is one, it is going to be bullish at this point.  I promise, gas will trade over $10.00 again.  Maybe not for a couple of years...but it will.  As we look out over the next few months, what is out there in the way of a surprise???  It's heat and hurricanes and there is going to be some scares about it.  I think we all know the current supply situation so look for the market to start showing that the selling is drying up.  It may come from the lower $5.00 mark but remember, that is now just $1.00 away and the risk to the upside is larger longer term. 

Cattle - Quiet day with Feb up just over 30 points.  Nothing new.  I can see it either way but will sell a good rally in the Feb,

Dow - Down hard but as I type this, the market is still off 100 points looking to see if it can bounce at all on a Friday.  As we said earlier this week, things changed technically and in the trading arena earlier this week and so far we have not found the low.  10,200 to the downside is support and if that zone gives way we could be in the midst of a 10 to 20% correction into the spring.  I don't think that is likely right now but technically, I can sure see it.

Thursday January 4th - 

Corn - Down 8 cents and we still see it maybe closing the gap at $3.47.  This is another 15 cents down and we may bounce a bit here first.  The market is looking at a lot of things including planting acres for 2007.  How many acres have been bought so far???  5 to 10 million is the range but is that why we are down the last two days so hard???

Let's Talk:  When a market goes down, everyone wants to know why and so analysts come up with all the reasons that support the direction of the market.  Never mind that the day before everything was bullish and to be totally honest, nothing has changed at all.  Here is the point.  The market goes down because there are more aggressive sellers then buyers and the last two days down in March corn has totaled 28 cents of downward aggressive selling with no change in the fundamentals.  The main reason given is the 'fear' that commodity funds will want a lesser position in corn in 2007 because of the gains in 2006.  Oh come on!!!  They want a lesser position because the market is going down.  If it was going up they would want a bigger position.  What is at issue here is where is the flow of the commercials and the end user.  Right now, they have bought enough and are moving back lower in their price range and they will buy it lower if they can.  Forget the flimsy fundamental explanations.  We needed a pull back and we are getting one.  What happens when Natural Gas starts to think about a hot summer and a hurricane season without a growing El Nino in the Pacific to knock off the tops of those storms??  It is going to be a long winter but here is the good news...summer is coming and the demand is not changing except in the direction of more usage.  Keep your eyes on the ball and that is not the daily price fluctuation.

We may have to deal with a lot more acres then we thought but that is the main thing out there that can throw a monkey wrench in the deal.  Once we know what the acres are, then we have to deal with a weather scare and with the carryover number we have right now and the current usage numbers...its going to be a heck of a year. 

Wheat  - Just what we said last night...good weather and more on the way.  Wheat tried to rally up and make a reversal today but got pounded right back down.  $4.53 is the next level of support but its a weak zone just like the $4.70 level was.  PB made a new low since last August and we are not close to oversold conditions in that category.  We may bounce the next few days but Yesterday's high will probably hold so on a bounce, we will use it to do some selling on 1st quarter wheat; however, this break in the whole scheme of things is not that bad.  Yes, it could go another 30 to 40 cents but again, overall, there is a herd mentality with the funds playing such a major role.  I'm looking to buy it longer term. 

By the way, the last time PB was at today's level of 34%, we were at a price of $4.04.  Today we are at $4.67...that is what I call a plateau change.  

Beans - Good weather in South America and funds selling across the board took beans lower.  Today was a sell signal on our system and one I am probably going to take.  Follow through tomorrow is needed and the chart is looking like a Kondratieff top.    Even so, this market still has some weather concerns to get past in South America but the supply is so large, it makes me nervous.  It is just not the same situation that corn is in so selling here makes sense if the technical picture comes around.  By the way, the PB here is 52% compared to 41% for March corn.  It has further drop in percentage based on a major sell signal. 

Rice - Nothing here as the market remains range bound.  Selling early gave up to buying but commercials sold later pushing back down and we closed up 2 cents again.  Nothing new in our books.  

Natural Gas - Finished a bit lower as a bounce in the market failed to catch traction and the sellers emerged to push it right back down.  Support at $6.00 in February must hold or we will move toward $5.70.  It is starting to look like a bear spread could finally work here. 

Cattle - We corrected some of the over bought condition today closing off 100 points but 60 points off of the low.  I like this price level for the current situation but I can see a correction of another 100 to 200 points if corn could bounce.

Dow - Up 22 points in the futures with the 12,400 level holding on its first big test as support.  A second trip down there may not have the same result.  We are out waiting to see if the volatility suggests a lot of selling at higher prices the next couple of days. 

Wednesday January 3rd - 

Corn - Last night I said the market was setup for a pull back to support but this was far more then I expected in one day.  Down almost the limit, corn fell on huge fund selling and across the board commodity price plunges in energy and metals.  This once again sets us up to test the major support at $3.55 in the March and possible even close the gap in corn; however, with the current sales of corn going like gangbusters, a lower price is not exactly the way to stop buying.  We will buy this break but for now, we will stand a side and let the big boys push it around.  We are not selling here and as we said a few weeks ago, be prepared for anything here near term. 

Wheat  - Weather looks great right now but wheat is a couple of inches tall so its not exactly made.  Today was a cascade affect and we saw some big selling from funds.  Technically, the market is bearish with a chance of testing $4.50 before all of this is over.  Longer term, the further it falls, the higher it will have to go but for now, there is no reason to be in it.

Beans - We are on the verge of major sell signals here as beans found nothing to help hold it up once corn and beans sold off.  Technically, beans look better then corn but that is not saying much right here.  PB is at 58% and really is setup to go lower over the next few weeks. 

Rice - Up on the day a whole 2 cents but with what went on in the rest of the grain pits, that is saying something.  Here is a market not finding sellers at lower levels and it should have today.  We will see if there is not a delayed reaction based on what happens in tomorrow but rice is charting its own direction right now and when you look at things, that direction is higher longer term.  Near term, we'll see.

Natural Gas - Lower on weather but look at crude oil.  Down over $3.00 before the Globex started trading and then it jumped in 50 cent increments.  I see the gas market inching lower but get ready, as I have been saying for a couple of months now, we will see a low here in the first quarter of the year.  

Cattle - New highs for February cattle as the remnants of the Cattle On Feed report says there is some slower cattle weights coming.  With corn down hard, that is going to add to the feeder markets profitability too.  Right now we are pointed higher with PB over 70%.  At 80%, you will find me trying to sell. 

Dow - After being up over 100 points the Dow broke to down 58 before coming back to close up 11 on the day.  We will wait for some clarity but this type of action could indicate a short term top is trying to form.  I was expecting it a little later than this but we may be entering into a change in direction and it might take a couple of weeks to clarify.

Tuesday January 2nd - Only Electronic trade overnight...markets closed in memorial of Pres. Ford 

Corn - Down 2 overnight as market is setup to pull back to support.  We still see it higher longer term.

Wheat  - Down 9 cents overnight as good weather for the wheat continues to push prices down.  This could change later this month but right now things look good for dry areas.

Beans - Unchanged as beans continue to look at demand levels to increase.

Rice - Nothing overnight however, a little weakness is possible near term.

Natural Gas - No Trade

Cattle - No Trade

Dow - Up over 60 points...dollar under pressure.  We still see it higher.